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OI Technical Staff : 1/3/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 8:51:38 PM

Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/3/2006 6:06:26 PM

This rally and how INTC dug itself out of this hole below the 200 dma raises my long target to those gaps in July between 28.23 to 28.62. We stay in the 25 APR calls with a stop at 1.20.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 5:03:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link ... NYSE Composite, AMEX Gold Bugs and the 13-week Treasury Note yield ($IRX.X) trade new 52-week highs today.

Note: Current Fed Funds target is 4.25%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 4:49:56 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 4:27:58 PM

Today's 3:12 PM EST Temperatures and February Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlements at this Link ...

February Unleaded settled up $0.213, or 1.34% at $1.7505.

February Crude Oil settled up $2.10, or 3.44% at $63.14.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 4:05:35 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 3:42:47 PM

2006 Q1 Program Trading Curbs ... with the NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7,911.13 +2.01% gaining 156.80 points.

Program trading curbs are in.

NYSE ... In the event of a 150-point advance in the NYA, all index-arbitrage buy orders of the S&P 500 stocks must be stabilizing for the remainder of the day. Collar will be removed if the NYA moves back to within 70 points of the previous day's close.

In the event of a 150-point decline in the NYA, all index-arbitrage buy orders of the S&P 500 stocks must be stabilizing for the remainder of the day. Collar will be removed if the NYA moves back to within 70 points of the previous day's close.

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 3:41:24 PM

TICKS range today was +1514 to -624. Now that is bullish!

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 3:40:39 PM

According to these stats from the WSJ we have a pretty good chance at breaking yearly highs, which does fit with the bullish formations I have been seeing on the charts.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 3:40:31 PM

QQQQ pulls back from the test of descending trendline resistance off the Dec. high, Link , but above 41.00, the writing is on the wall for daily cycle bears, with a huge key reversal/bullish engulfing printed on the chart. The intraday move obliterated all of the usually-relevant price channels, indicating a trending move on an intraday basis- more evidence of a turn for the daily cycle.

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 3:38:12 PM

When December's last five days were down January's first five days were up 71% of the time and the month of January was up 76% of the time.

When January's first five days were down the rest of the year was above average 43% of the time.

When January's first five days were up the rest of the year was above average 55% of the time.

When the entire month of January was up the rest of the year was above average 61% of the time.

When the entire month of January was down the rest of the year was above average 34% of the time.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 3:24:30 PM

QQQQ daily chart at this Link , testing declining resistance off the Dec. 2005 high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 3:20:30 PM

SPX Option Chain (Most Actives found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 3:14:56 PM

VIX.X 11.07 -8.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 3:13:40 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link ... New Highs on the big board most since 12/13/05 (171:163).

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 3:08:24 PM

Volume breadth is up to +4.15:1 on the NYSE, +3.45:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 3:04:20 PM

Swamped with Pivot alerts ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 3:03:05 PM

QQQQ is back to 41.20 here, whcih held as resistance each time it was tested last week, breaking it as I type. Next resistance is at 41.35-.40, but the break of 41.20 is a significant achievement for the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 3:02:31 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:57:16 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,262.02 +1.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:56:38 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 1.8 bp at 4.377%. WEEKLY Pivot here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:47:25 PM

Volume breadth up to +2.95:1 on the NYSE, +2.84:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:42:43 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 41.15, -.07

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:42:25 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7,875.62 +1.56% ... all-time high alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:40:50 PM

FOMC Dec. Minutes ...

Views differed on how many more rate hikes.

Some members wanted to drop "measured pace" wording.

Must be mindful of policy's lagged economic effect.

Policy outlook less certain, more data-dependent.

Fed staff forecast slower but "solid" economic growth.

Number of additional rate hikes likely won't be large.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:35:54 PM

High risk entry based on upside violation of all intraday channels and maxxed out short cycle indicators. Stop is tight just in case. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:34:50 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 41.08 stop 41.15

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:32:43 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.75 +0.74% ... probes MONTHLY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:30:26 PM

Volume is declining on this most recent leg of the Fed rally, and the short cycle indicators are maxxed out and trending. Price is still rising, however, and the bottom line is bullish so long as QQQQ holds north of 40.85. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:31:12 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.66 +0.66% ... probes WEEKLY Pivot.

IBM $81.27 -1.14%, MMM $78.11 +0.78%, MO $74.70 -0.02%, BA $70.01 -0.27%, AIG $69.15 +1.34%

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:27:14 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $9.24 -6.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:26:24 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $54.28 +5.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:26:01 PM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 191.01 +4.87% ... threatens an all-time high close at current levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:18:46 PM

Session high for gold, +14.80 or 2.85% at 533.80. Ditto for silver, +.30 or 3.37% at 9.19.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:18:09 PM

Volume breadth is up to +1.9:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:14:15 PM

5 to 10-year yield spread last week stood at just 4.0 bp. Notable steepening now with spread of 6.0 bp.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:12:36 PM

QQQQ returns to confluence resistance at last week's lows, violating 30 and 60 min channel resistance. If the bears are going to push back, this is where it should start: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:12:13 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,257.36 +0.73% ... big move in last 15-minutes. Reclaims both its WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:10:35 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:08:44 PM

Session high for ten year notes at 109 51/64, TNX now down 2.2 bps at 4.373%. IRX is now up 5 bps at 4.035%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:04:13 PM

QQQQ engulfed this afternoon's range and retested the morning highs. There's a potential bearish divergence on the short and wavelet cycle indicators, but only if the bulls actually lose it from here. There was a surge of volume on that bounce, and 30 min channel resistance is at 40.70, pennies above the morning high. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:02:33 PM

FOMC minutes at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:02:32 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 2:01:34 PM

Headlines:

FOMC MAJORITY: ONLY FEW MORE RATE HIKES NEEDED: MINUTES

FOMC: NUMBER OF MORE HIKES REQUIRED MAY 'NOT BE LARGE'

FOMC: VIEWS DIFFERERED ON HOW MUCH MORE TIGHTENING NEEDED

FOMC: SOME MEMBERS THOUGHT RATES NOW IN NEUTRAL ZONE

FOMC: CONCERNS OVER NEAR-TERM INFLATION HAD EASED

FOMC: MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK MORE UNCERTAIN

FOMC: STAFF FORECASTS SLOWER, BUT STILL SOLID, GROWTH IN '06

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 2:00:46 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.11, SPX 1,251.90, QQQQ $40.57

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 1:51:05 PM

Volume breadth holds at +1.2:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 1:49:31 PM

Chile's Finance Minister saying country's 2005 fiscal surplus was 4.5% of country's GDP.

DJ - Chile's fiscal government surplus reached 4.5% of gross domestic product in 2005, Finance Minister Nicolas Eyzaguirre said Tuesday during a speech to legislators regarding the peso's strength in foreign exchange markets.

The figure topped the government's previous 4.0% estimate, and the government has been taking steps to neutralize the strengthening effect that the influx of dollars has on the peso, Eyzaguirre told an audience that has been seeking some type of intervention to support worrying exporters.

Among the measures the ministry has taken are placing some of its extraordinary dollar earnings in foreign banks and depositing dollars in state bank BancoEstado, Eyzaguirre said.

Central Bank President Vittorio Corbo also told the senators the current exchange rate, which still hovers near 5 1/2-year highs, likely won't hold because of the probable decline in the sky-high price of copper over the midterm.

Additionally, while the bank in principle remains open to intervening in the event of a major foreign exchange imbalance, "so far, we don't have enough facts to conclude that the foreign exchange market is passing through a situation that merits an intervention," he said.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 1:47:04 PM

QQQQ's shorter intraday cycles are turning up after a weak, extrended downphase. The FOMC minutes are due out in 14 minutes, and with an expanding low volume range printing since noon, we could get some wild swings following the release. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 1:29:17 PM

3-Month T-bill auction ... DJ - The U.S. Treasury awarded $17.00 billion in three-month bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 4.070%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $36.48 billion and accepted $17.00 billion, including $1.76 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 98.971194 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.169%.

The Treasury also sold $982 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis. Foreign and international noncompetitive tenders totaled $982 million.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.15, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 62.32%.

The median rate was 4.050%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.020%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 1:26:16 PM

6-Month T-bill auction ... DJ - The U.S. Treasury awarded $15.00 billion in six-month bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 4.265%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $29.84 billion and accepted $15.00 billion, including $1.45 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.843806 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.420%.

The Treasury also sold $840 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis. Foreign and international noncompetitive tenders totaled $840 million.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 1.99, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 6.78%.

The median rate was 4.240%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.215%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 1:18:15 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 1:13:58 PM

QQQQ breaks back within the descending trendline channel, but bears need to see the underside of 72 SMA support at 40.47: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 1:10:48 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 1:06:53 PM

North American Palladium (PAL) $8.61 +1.89% ... released for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 1:05:21 PM

North American Palladium (PAL) indicated $8.61 +1.89% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 1:02:12 PM

Volume breadth +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.25:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 12:57:56 PM

North American Palladium (PAL) update $8.45 (halted) ... Company announces it has started an unscheduled temporary shutdown of its primary crusher at its Lac des Iles open pit mine in Ontario.

The Company recently encountered operating disruptions with the primary crusher, which reduces the size of run-of-mine ore in preparation for milling.

PAL said it has the necessary spare parts in inventory. Employees have begun the crusher's disassembly and the repairs are expected to take up to three weeks to complete. Meantime, the Company has contracted with Sigfusson Northern Limited to bring portable crushing units on-site, in order to return to full mill production by the end of this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 12:55:32 PM

QQQQ bulls are successfully treading water here at trendline and pivot resistance, the short cycle downphase so far getting very poor traction. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 12:48:52 PM

Brazil's Central Bank calls auction to buy US Dollars.

DJ - The Brazilian Central Bank at 1733 GMT Tuesday called an auction at which it intends to buy U.S. dollars from the market.

The Brazilian real was trading at BRL2.334 shortly before the auction. The real opened at BRL2.347 per dollar Tuesday, weaker from Monday's close of BRL2.340.

The bank has bought dollars at near-daily auctions since early October in an effort to increase foreign reserves.

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 12:46:56 PM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 12:46:46 PM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 12:44:05 PM

Midday news update:

The New Year found German chemicals company BASF making an all-cash proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of common stock of Engelhard Corporation (EC) for $37.00 per share with the deal valued at an aggregate of $4.9 billion. Engelhard is a Fortune 500 company and leading supplier of goods for catalysis and surface finishing.

Poultry processor Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) $26.08 -21.29% fell as the company said it now expects fiscal 1Q earnings of $0.36-$0.41 a share, sharply below the $0.75-$0.85 previously projected, amid avian influenza worries in Europe. The company said it plans to cut 300 jobs at a Pennsylvania plant.

Drugstore chain Walgreen (WAG) posted earnings of $345.6 million, or $0.34 a share, a penny above analysts' estimates. Sales climbed 10% to $10.9 billion as same-store sales rose 7.2%. The company said it plans to open about 475 new stores.

Shares of General Motors (GM) $18.79 -3.24% remained weak after Banc of America cut its target price to $13 from $16, citing concerns over impact of health-care deal and loss of cash proceeds due to possible sale of stake in General Motors Acceptance Corp.

J.P. Morgan made some positive comments on Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $61.12 +1.66%. The broker expects forthcoming 2006 guidance to be a positive for shares. J.P. Morgan adds Johnson & Johnson could see a half-dozen new drugs approved or near approval the next two years.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) $45.86 -2.0% said it expects December same-store sales at its U.S. locations to show growth of 2.2%, which is at the low end of its previous guidance of 2%-4%, despite aggressive discounts and marketing this holiday season.

Yellow Roadway (YELL) $44.15 -1.03% announced it plans a push into China and company name change. The U.S. trucking giant is planning to operate its own trucks in China later this year as part of a global expansion plan, according to Bill Zollars, chairman and chief executive of the company.

The Institute for Supply Management's December manufacturing business index slipped to 54.2 from 58.1 in November and below economist estimates of 57.4, amid a welcoming cooling off in price pressures faced by the sector.

Construction spending rose 0.2% to seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.146 trillion during November, setting another record, but the increase was well below economists' expectations of a 0.7% increase.

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 12:34:59 PM

Great Trade Jonathan.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 12:25:59 PM

QQQQ holds at descending trendline resistance off last week's high, the short cycle indicators printing a preliminary sell signal: Link . A failure to drop here would cause it to begin trending bullishly in overbought.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 12:12:25 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 12:12:20 PM

QQQQ tests upper 30 min channel resistance here as the short cycle maxxes out. I'm playing it safe and bagging the profit on the QQQQ long.

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ long from 40.22 at 40.57

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 12:10:17 PM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 12:04:19 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 12:00:43 PM

Volume breadth +1.3:1 on the NYSE, +1.35:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:58:09 AM

The short cycle upphase is sputtering here for QQQQ, near the top of its range in overbought territory. Here's where the 30 min cycle bulls need to step in and pick up the baton from the waning short cycle bulls, just as the short cycle did from the waning wavelet upphase earlier. I'm going to leave the stop in place at 40.32 on the long, in the hope of this becoming an upside swing trade on a 30 min cycle upphase. Below 40.32, however, a retest of the low becomes more likely. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:44:43 AM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ long from 40.22, move stop to 40.32

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 11:45:09 AM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $37.90 +4.26% ... surging in last hour from $36.50. Mid-point of IPO range ($31.27-$44.21) here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:42:59 AM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA resistance on a surge of volume. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:35:36 AM

Volume breadth +1.03:1 on the NYSE, -1.23:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 11:33:12 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) $11.88 +2.67% Link ...

Tab Gilles : 1/3/2006 11:32:34 AM

Russia, Ukraine to Resume Gas Talks Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 11:32:27 AM

North American Palladium (AMEX:PAL) $8.45 Link ... Has been halted entire session. News pending.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 11:30:10 AM

Engelhard Corp. (EC) $36.66 +21.59% Link ... Stock was halted for trade just prior to 11:00 AM EST. BASF offering to buy the company for $4.9 billion in cash. Deal values EC at $37.00 per share.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:29:34 AM

Session low for GE here at 34.80, -.71%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:24:56 AM

72 SMA resistance for QQQQ is at 40.47, above which the 30 min channel downphase will stall. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 11:24:12 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Retracement at this Link ... also show historical MONTHLY Pivot R2-S2 levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:18:40 AM

Session high for crude oil just printed at 63.05, +2 for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:14:53 AM

From the Treasury website:

The Treasury will auction 4-week Treasury bills totaling $8,000 million to refund an estimated $16,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills maturing January 5, 2006, and to pay down approximately $8,000 million.

This effectively adds 8B in liquidity at tomorrow's auction.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 11:11:59 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:09:54 AM

Volume breadth is up to -1.05:1 on the NYSE, -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 11:09:53 AM

Dateline CNN Lobbyist Jack Abramoff, a close associate of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, to plead guilty to corruption, other charges, source tells CNN.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 11:04:05 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $54.00 +4.65% Link ... Today's trade at $54.00 gets PnF chart 3-box reversal higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:03:34 AM

First test for the QQQQ bulls right here as the wavelet reaches the top of its range on what has so far been a strong bounce: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 11:02:37 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 11:00:28 AM

Ten year notes continue higher, session high here at 109 23/32, TNX down 2.5 bps to 4.37%. IRX is also down, now +2 bps at 4.005%.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/3/2006 10:59:01 AM

INTC closed the gap and has a bounce. Look at 25.01 R.

Jane Fox : 1/3/2006 10:58:25 AM

Here is Larry McMillan's Friday commentary, which came after the markets closed on Friday. Paraphrasing Yale Hirsch, "Santa Claus has failed to call (so far), so Bears may come to Broad and Wall." Mr. Hirsch coined the term "Santa Claus rally," and did the research on its effects. It extends over seven trading days -- the last 5 trading days of one year and the first 2 of the next year. So far, four of the seven days have passed, and $SPX is down 14 points and the NASDAQ Composite Index is down 28 points. If the seven-day period finishes with a loss, Mr. Hirsch has noted that that has negative implications for the ensuing weeks and perhaps months -- not always, but often.

Looking at our technical indicators, they are in a tenuous state, but are not all on full-fledged sell signals yet. $SPX broke down below 1260 this week, which means it violated an initial support area, and it fell below its 20-day moving average as well. This is mildly negative, but more important is the support at 1250. As long as that holds, the downside would be limited. Conversely, if $SPX should plunge below 1250, it will probably generate heavy selling as many traders are placing "stops" just below there.

The equity-only put-call ratios are now both bearish -- a new development. The weighted ratio gave a sell signal last week and has moved higher, solidifying that sell signal (Figure 3). The standard ratio joined its "partner" on Thursday with a sell signal of its own -- at least according to our computer projections. This is very similar to last year, when the weighted ratio gave an early sell signal, while the standard sell signal came more or less simultaneously with the top near the beginning of 2005.

Breadth has been bouncing back and forth. As a result, the breadth has given several sell signals, the last of which occurred early this week.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) had recently dropped once again to near 10-year lows ($VXO was below 10!). This week, there has been a modest increase in these indices, which is modestly negative. However, unless $VIX closes above 12.50, we would consider its movements as merely noise within a bullish overall picture of $VIX remaining low.

In summary, these indicators are starting to get quite negative. We expect $SPX and $VIX to follow suit, but we are reluctant to get too bearish without their confirmation. We would not take negative positions in $SPX until it breaks below 1250.

One final point: the media and the bulls are saying that there is a lot of pessimism out there, and that markets don't necessarily repeat themselves, so they expect January to be bullish. Of course, markets don't repeat themselves, but that's hardly a reason to be bullish for January. As for the pessimism, we don't see it. $VIX is near historic lows; that's not pessimistic -- it's complacent, if anything. Furthermore, put-call ratios are not at highs -- which is where they'd be if there were pervasive pessimism.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:55:09 AM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ long from 40.22 , move stop to breakeven

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:42:16 AM

Trying to catch a bullish upturn in the short and wavelet cycles here off the low: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:41:42 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Long QQQQ at 40.22, stop 40.17

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:42:42 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 193.29 -1.53% ... notably weak early and set to challenge WEEKLY S2 (192.75) without much pause at WEEKLY S1 (194.50). Has me thinking bulls taking some profits into the new tax year.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/3/2006 10:40:33 AM

There goes QM again. Jeez.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/3/2006 10:39:57 AM

Alert: lower stop on INTC APR 25 call to 1.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:36:39 AM

Ten year notes go positive, TNX now down 2 bps at 4.375%, IRX up 4.2 bps at 4.027%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:36:37 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $106.84 -0.10% ... also challenges Friday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:36:05 AM

Chicago Merc (CME) $362.00 -1.50% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:32:55 AM

Noting that the SOX has yet to test Friday's low, stronger than QQQQ here.

Tab Gilles : 1/3/2006 10:32:06 AM

NASDAQ100 ($NDX)Followup to 12/29/05 1:33PM post; Weekly Link 360 minute Link

Tageting 1625/1600 level for near term support.

$VXN Link $NASI Link Link $NAHL Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:31:20 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $53.47 +3.62 ... Challenges its High/Low Close 61.8% retracement early. Positive to see this refiner gap above overlapping $52.26. I would think a close above $53.63 has $55.43-$55.85 in play before February expiration. Chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:28:02 AM

Support from QQQQ's August 2005 to Oct. 2005 highs is from 39.80-40.08: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:26:05 AM

Volume breadth falls to +1.15:1 on the NYSE, -1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:23:44 AM

Gold continues higher, current high 532.20. Here's an 8 day 50-tick chart of Feb. emini gold: Link , bullish above the 72 SMA at 520.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:22:59 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.99, SPX 1,249.22, QQQQ $40.36

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:19:32 AM

Ten year notes have bounced sharply, TNX down to a 1.2 bp gain at 4.407%, flattening against IRX which holds +4.2 bps at 4.027%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:18:06 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $107.00 +0.04% ... Bar chart with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/3/2006 10:16:27 AM

INTC closed the gap.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:13:25 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.95, SPX 1,249.05, QQQQ $40.38

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:12:50 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel support is below Friday's low, currently at 40.30. The short cycle has rolled over and has room to run lower should Friday's low fail. Nasdaq volume breadth has just ticked negative, -1.05:1. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:11:10 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:09:36 AM

QQQQ ticks below 72 SMA support for the first time today, stalling the 30 min cycle upphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:05:57 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.06, SPX 1,251.07, QQQQ $40.53

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:05:18 AM

Session low for GE and YM here, QQQQ returning to the 72 SMA. Direction is still up for grabs.

Tab Gilles : 1/3/2006 10:04:46 AM

Nice pop on oil this morning. $61.89 + $0.85.

XLE Link MUR Link VLO Link APA Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:04:24 AM

Crude oil reopens higher, +.925 at a session high of 61.975.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:03:38 AM

Volume breadth is down to +2.5:1 on the NYSE, +2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:02:57 AM

ISM 54.2 vs. 57.5 exp., prior 58.1.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 10:02:42 AM

Construction spending +.2% vs. .7% exp., prior revised up from .7% to .8%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:02:34 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 10:01:27 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.30, SPX 1,253.10, QQQQ $40.59

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 9:57:24 AM

Awaiting Construction Spending and the ISM in 3 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 9:56:18 AM

Because the Fed used a 6 day repo on Friday, there are no repos maturing today and any amounts added will be net adds. The Fed has just announced a 13.25B overnight repo, but the stop out rate on Treasury collateral actually rose 1 bp above the target rate, showing that the Fed's dealers were willing to pay more for the overnight money than we've seen in recent weeks.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 9:53:17 AM

Feb. gold is up 9.20 here at 528.20, holding above rising linear support at 520. Silver is up .25 at 9.14.

Jeff Bailey : 1/3/2006 9:49:55 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/3/2006 9:49:51 AM

INTC Option Exit Point Alert -
Set stop on INTC Apr 25 long call with a conditional at or below 24.87.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 9:42:49 AM

QQQQ found support at the 72 SMA at 40.50, currently bouncing back to a lower high. However, the wavelet and short cycle indicators are rolling over here, direction still up for grabs but running into resistance in the early going. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 9:31:34 AM

Volume breadth is +5.7:1 on the NYSE, +4:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 9:30:49 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 40.50 , 30/60 min channel resistance at 40.62-.65 , and 30/60 min channel support at 40.35 .

Marc Eckelberry : 1/3/2006 9:22:15 AM

Lots of news coming up for INTC with the convention and announcement on Thursday. The stock has mild put support at 25, but we could see a run to 25.98 in no time. A close above 26, 20 dma, sets up a test of November highs, at 27.49, exit target for this trade. I will be a consistent buyer of INTC on pullbacks this year.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/3/2006 9:11:11 AM

Watch INTC 25.01, 50% support. Apr 25 call long trade is still open with a stop at 1.20.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 8:48:03 AM

A big jump in the 13-week bill rate this AM has broken the highs, IRX currently +4 bps to 4.025%. The ten year yield (TNX) is up 2.9 bps to 4.424%. For a discussion of the yield curve, see The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator on the New York Fed's website at Link . From that page, the concluding sentence:

...Thus, although yield curve inversions may not be followed by recessions as a matter of universal mathematical principle, they should definitely raise warning flags about future output growth.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 8:40:33 AM

Bonds have been selling this morning, the ZN future down 5/32 here to 109 1/4, TNX up 2.6 bps to 4.421%. Equities dipped but are bouncing back, QQQQ at 40.68. The current 30 min cycle bounce started at midday on Friday and was stalling on the sharp drop in the final hour, while the 60 min cycle is only now ticking up out of oversold territory. The intraday cycles could have potentially hours to days' worth of upside- but the daily cycle has not yet turned up.

Each cycle's impact on price is relative to the next longer cycle that contains it- so the 30 min cycle must be read in terms of the 60 min cycle, and the 60 min cycle in terms of the daily. The daily has been declining since late November, and is only now approaching oversold territory. That means that 2 to 4 days' worth of higher daily lows and highs will be needed to reverse the daily cycle to the upside. Pricewise, Friday's intraday high has already been broken, and the low in the mid 40.30s has not come close to being tested. I will update the intraday channel and SMA levels for QQQQ when they refresh at the opening bell.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/3/2006 7:47:09 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1261.25, NQ 1668, YM 10815 and QQQQ +.30 at 40.71. Gold is up 6.20 to 525.20, silver is up .178 to 9.068, ten year notes are down 1/32 to 109 3/4, crude oil is up .40 to 61.45 and natural gas is down .355 to 10.87.

We await the 10AM releases of Construction Spending, est. .5%, the ISM Index, est. 57 and at 2PM, the minutes from the Dec. 13 FOMC meeting.

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