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Jeff Bailey : 1/5/2006 1:18:25 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate and Nat Gas Inventory Table assuming no net change since week ended 12/23/05 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/5/2006 12:59:06 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+7.33 and set for program selling at $+5.34.

QCharts users that would like to watch these premium execution levels, the symbol is $PREM.X

Fair Value for the S&P 500 is $+6.23. That price level will not change during Thursday's trade. What is fair value? Click Link to find out.

Jeff Bailey : 1/5/2006 12:54:21 AM

nq06h down 1.50 points at 1,711.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/5/2006 12:53:53 AM

es06h down 1.25 points at 1,279.25.

Jeff Bailey : 1/5/2006 12:53:22 AM

ym06h down 9 points at 10,915.

Jeff Bailey : 1/5/2006 12:52:19 AM

Feb Crude Oil (cl06g) down $0.11, or -0.17% at $63.31.

Jeff Bailey : 1/5/2006 12:51:41 AM

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (update) ... DJ - Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was returned to the operating room Thursday after a brain scan revealed he required more treatment following "massive, wide-spread" bleeding in his brain. Doctors said he was in serious condition.

Sharon fell ill at his ranch Wednesday evening and was rushed to Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem. Doctors began emergency surgery about midnight that lasted throughout the night. Doctors said Thursday morning the operation would last several more hours. Surgery apparently had been complicated by blood thinners he had been given following a mild stroke on Dec. 18, and the medication may also have contributed to Wednesday's stroke.

Mor-Yosef said that after several hours of surgery, the bleeding had stopped but that Sharon was returned to the operating theater. "We are continuing with the same operation, and there are more areas that need to be treated," Mor-Yosef said, without elaborating.

Mor-Yosef did not address Sharon's prognosis, but neurosurgeons not involved in Sharon's treatment said a full recovery was not likely following such a massive stroke. They said it usually takes at least a day after the surgery to determine the extent of any damage.

Powers were transferred to his deputy, Ehud Olmert, who was to convene the Cabinet at 9 a.m. (0700 GMT) for a special session.

OI Technical Staff : 1/4/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Tab Gilles : 1/4/2006 7:13:09 PM

Correction to 6:33 PM post

USPIX purchase prices need to be adjusted for a fund cash dividend distribution on 12/28 of $0.338424 per share, in which I did not calculate into the total return.

1/2 positions purchased on 11/30 and 12/20 at $15.03 and $15.22... should instead be $14.69 and $14.88 respectively. Average price of $15.13 should be $14.79. Thus as of today's closing NAV of $14.38, I'm down -2.77% not the -4.95% stated in previous post. Sorry for the error.

Tab Gilles : 1/4/2006 6:33:24 PM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) Reversal...goes BULLISH! As of today's close the $NASI reversed course and went bullish on both the daily and weekly chart..Daily.. Link Weekly $NASI... Link

Now I posted earlier today this chart of the $NDX with a Bull Flag formation with a 1860 P/O. I would like to see a break over 1710 resistance to get really bullish. Link

$NDX Link Link Link

$NAHL Link

$VXN daily & weekly Link Link

So with the $NASI reversing, I have to stick with my discipline and sell USPIX Profund Ultrashort OTC and enter UOPIX UltraOTC fund. These fund trade on 200% of the $NDX long and short moves. Plan; sell 1/2 position USPIX (entered 1/2 on 11/30/05 @ $15.03 and 1/2 on 12/20 $15.22; average cost basis $15.13. Closing NAV today $14.38.[ down 4.95% thus far] Link Enter 1/2 position UOPIX on closing NAV tomorrow. Link

Add to UOPIX position when $NDX breaks over 1710 resistance. If it doesn't and $NASI reverses to bearish add back into USPIX.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 6:10:01 PM

Aeropostale (ARO) $27.70 +1.68% Link ... Apparel retailer jumps to $29.16 over ECN after saying its sales at stores open at least one year rose 11.4% in December, and the company boosted its fourth-quarter earnings forecast.

ARO said it exceeded its sales and gross margin expectations "significantly."

Aeropostale now forecasting Q4 earnings in a range of $0.71 to $0.73 a share, up from its prior view of $0.55 to $0.61 a share.

Concensus was for same-store sales to increase 5.5%, and Q4 earnings to come in at $0.59 a share.

ARO said total sales rose 32.7% to $236.8 million in December.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 6:12:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... Indices/Sectors hitting new 52-week highs highlighted in PINK.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 6:12:36 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Volumes were heavy again today as market participants return from an extended holiday. December's average daily volume at the NYSE was 1.99 billion. NASDAQ's average daily volume was 1.67 billion.

Updated NYSE NH/NL Ratio chart at this Link where at today's close, the NYSE 10-day (X, O) reversed back up into column of X. Short (f-ive day) and intermediate-term leadership now bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 4:52:21 PM

Men's Warehouse (MW) $29.17 -0.54% Link ... jumps on ECN to $30.45 after company said U.S. December same-store sales increased ahead of Wall Street expectations, and the company expects Q4 earnings to exceed the top end of its prior outlook for a profit of $0.46 to $0.48 a share.

Analysts expected the company to post a domestic same-store sales increase of 3.5% for December. Same-store sales for domestic shops actually rose 8.9%.

Also, Wall Street expected the company to post Q4 earnings of $0.50 cents a share.

In the year ago fiscal fourth quarter, Men's Wearhouse posted earnings of $0.68 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 4:48:12 PM

Headline ... DJ - Hospital Aide: Israel's Sharon had "significant" stroke.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 4:25:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 4:10:41 PM

02:12 PM EST Temperatures with February Nat Gas and Heating Oil futures settlement at this Link

Feb Crude Oil settled up $0.28, or 0.44% at $63.42.

Feb Unleaded settled up $0.034, or 1.94% at $1.7845.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 4:00:50 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $108.78, SPY $127.34

Jane Fox : 1/4/2006 3:55:58 PM

Nope another false start albeit it is getting a little late for a rally isn't it.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2006 3:55:16 PM

TICKS +1000 late day rally starting?

Jane Fox : 1/4/2006 3:54:49 PM

AD volume to new daily highs and TICKS +800.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 3:39:38 PM

Rocky Shoes & Boots (RCKY) $21.75 -9.93% ... DJ - Sees '05 EPS Incl Items $2.21-$2.25

Backs '05 Rev View $294M-$296M

Sees '06 EPS $2.28-$2.38

'06 View Incl 7c For Option Expense

Sees '06 Rev $287M-$292M

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 3:37:34 PM

Rocky Shoes & Boots (RCKY) $22.20 -8.07% ... sharp drop in last 10 minutes from $24.75.

$30M pact with military terminated.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/4/2006 3:37:09 PM

INTC keeps cranking, now holding above 20 day ema. The SOX however stalling right below 500.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2006 3:33:28 PM

On December 14th SPX made a yearly high of 1275.80. Today SPX's high has been 1275.37.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 3:31:46 PM

Headline alert ... DJ- Israel's Sharon rushed to Jerusalem Hospital. May have had stroke.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 3:26:12 PM

Today's higher high and higher low, combined with the upside descending trendline break are all bullish on the daily chart. Resistance in the 42.00-42.15 area become key for QQQQ. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 3:21:07 PM

Volume breadth is down to +2.1:1 on the NYSE, +2.3:1 on the Nasdaq, still strong.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 3:11:56 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 3:04:11 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 3:03:36 PM

QQQQ just failed at the 72 SMA line, pulling back slowly below 41.60. If this is a distribution top, then it's being done very well: despite the bearish intraday cycle setup and the h&s pattern noted earlier, my gut keeps expecting a sudden meltup like yesterday. I'm ignoring it because of the cycle setup as well as the big Fed drain today. QQQQ bears need to see 41.80 hold if tested, and a break below 41.45 will be the first sign of trouble for bulls- a sustained break below 41.38 will confirm new 30/60 min channel downphases. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 3:01:38 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) updated bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 2:52:42 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $54.96 +1.08% ... updated bar chart we've been trading at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 2:49:44 PM

Volume breadth +2.45:1 on the NYSE, +2.65:1 on the Nasdaq, still no sign of weakness.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 2:43:35 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA resistance from below, the 60 min cycle now flattened at the top of its rise. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 2:40:45 PM

Feb Heating Oil (ho06c) updated bar chart at this Link ... another refined product. Not nearly as bullish as Unleaded.

Refiners can turn this stuff out like candy as long as capacity utilization and capacity is there.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 2:27:59 PM

QQQQ holds 41.50 support as the 30 min channel declines to the 60 min channel bottom at 41.38. The pattern off the high looks like a head and shoulder top, which confirms the short cycle oscillation within the topping 30 and 60 min cycles. If the nexfcline is here around 41.45, then the implied target on a breakdown would be around 41.15. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 2:25:51 PM

February Unleaded (hu06g) ... updated bar chart at this Link

Valero (VLO) $54.72 +0.64% ... holding tough.

Tab Gilles : 1/4/2006 2:20:16 PM

$DJUSEN Link

XLE Link

OIH Link

MUR Link

APA Link

VLO Link

XOM Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 2:14:26 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 2:04:58 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 2:00:14 PM

Headlines:

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. CHEVROLET SALES DOWN 3.4%

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. CADILLAC BRAND SALES DOWN 16%

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. CADILLAC SALES UP 0.3%

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. BUICK BRAND SALES DOWN 16.2%

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. BUICK SALES DOWN 8.8%

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. HUMMER BRAND SALES UP 111.8%

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. HUMMER SALES UP 93.3%

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. GMC BRAND SALES DOWN 17.2%

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. GMC SALES DOWN 5.9%

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. CHEVROLET BRAND SALES DOWN 11.8%

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. ISUZU BRAND SALES DOWN 11.4%

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. OLDSMOBILE BRAND SALES DOWN 87.9%

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. OLDSMOBILE SALES DOWN 93.5%

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 1:56:37 PM

Headlines:

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. TOTAL SALES 392,041 UNITS VS 437,161 UNITS

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. CAR SALES FALL 7.1%

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. SALES 4.52M VS 4.71M

[GM] GM DEC. U.S. TOTAL SALES DOWN 10.3% VS YR AGO

[GM] GM 2005 U.S. SALES FALL 4%

1:54pm GM GM DEC. U.S. CAR SALES DOWN 19.4% VS YR AGO

1:55pm GM GM 2005 U.S. CAR SALES 1.75M VS 1.89M

1:55pm GM GM DEC. U.S. CAR SALES 131,687 UNITS VS 163,294 UNITS

1:55pm GM GM 2005 U.S. TRUCK SALES FALL 2%

Tab Gilles : 1/4/2006 1:58:45 PM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration Fund (EVV) Daily Link

Weekly Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 1:45:47 PM

February Crude Oil, Unleaded, Heating Oil all green here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 1:46:29 PM

Headline:

1:45pm DE:519000 CORRECT: BMW: DEC. U.S. BMW BRAND SALES UP 4%

1:43pm DE:519000 BMW: DEC. U.S. BMW BRAND SALES 20,510 UNITS VS 18,762 UNITS

1:42pm DE:519000 BMW: DEC. U.S. BMW BRAND SALES UP 9.3%

1:41pm DE:519000 BMW 2005 U.S. SALES UP 3.7% TO 307,020 FROM 296,111 UNITS

1:44pm DE:519000 BMW: DEC. U.S. MINI BRAND SALES DOWN 36%

WOODCLIFF LAKE, N.J., Jan. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- The BMW Group in the U.S. (BMW and MINI brands combined) reported record sales for 2005, with an increase of 4 percent, to push the total over the 300,000 threshold for the first time. The BMW Group posted annual sales of 307,020 vehicles, up 4 percent over the 296,111 vehicles reported in calendar year 2004. The BMW Group also reported monthly sales of 28,900 for December, down 1.3 percent over the 29,292 vehicle sales reported last December. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 1:37:07 PM

QQQQ drops to the low 41.50s, reaching the 30 min channel bottom. This would be a potential bounce point if the 30 min cycle were anywhere near oversold territory, but it isn't. Failing a strong bounce back above 41.60, the 30 min channel should begin declining from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 1:33:29 PM

Midday news update:

The major indices show some sign of follow through from yesterday afternoon's surge higher from the release of December's FOMC minutes, however broker downgrades on Citigroup (C) $48.48 -1.64% and Home Depot (HD) $40.33 -2.20% offset an upgrade of ExxonMobil (XOM) $58.63 +0.27%, which finds the Dow Industrials (INDU) giving back earlier gains to trade relatively unchanged.

The NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQQ) $41.57 +0.62% exhibits strength boosted in part by some steepening of the yield curve and another upgrade of newly added component Google (GOOG) $441.60 +1.46%. Fellow heavyweight Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.82 +2.12% was atop the day's most active list after the network equipment maker said the federal waiting period for its acquisition of cable television technology company Scientific-Atlanta Inc. has expired without regulators taking any action.

Economic data had orders to U.S. factories posting their biggest gain in three months in November, but the strength was concentrated in a surge in demand for commercial aircraft. The Commerce Department said orders to factories rose by 2.5% in November to a record-high of $407.7 billion. It was the best percentage gain since a 2.9% rise in August and followed a 1.7% October increase.

Standard & Poors announced that Estee Lauder (EL) $34.90 +4.67% will join the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,271.63 +0.22% at the close of trading today. The news sent the stock sharply higher at the open of Wednesday's trade. Estee Lauder replaces Mercury Interactive, a maker of software for testing enterprise and Web applications. Mercury's shares were delisted from the NASDAQ market and began trading on the over-the-counter exchange today.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 1:24:31 PM

Headlines:

1:20pm NSANY NISSAN DEC. U.S. SALES DOWN 1% VS YR AGO

1:22pm NSANY NISSAN DEC. N.A. TOTAL CAR SALES DOWN 4.4% VS YR AGO

1:22pm NSANY NISSAN NORTH AMERICA 2005 CAR SALES UP 7%

1:22pm NSANY NISSAN NORTH AMERICA 2005 TRUCK SALES UP 12.6%

1:22pm NSANY NISSAN DEC. N.A. TOTAL TRUCK SALES UP 2% VS YR AGO

1:22pm NSANY NISSAN NORTH AMERICA 2005 SALES 1.08M VS 986K

1:23pm NSANY NISSAN NORTH AMERICA 2005 NISSAN DIVISION SALES UP 10.3%

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 1:21:17 PM

Volume breadth is down to +2.2:1 on the NYSE, +2.9:1 on the Nasdaq, still very strong. QQQQ's decline remains hesitant despite the dip on the 1PM bill auction results, the short cycle downphase still getting poor traction. However, price is below the 72 SMA for the first time since yesterday afternoon, and the 30 min cycle channel has stalled in its rise. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 1:19:13 PM

Headlines:

SUBARU DEC. U.S. SALES UP 3% VS YR AGO AT 19,919 UNITS

SUBARU 2005 U.S. SALES 196,002 UNITS

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 1:12:30 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 1:05:00 PM

Foreign central banks took a very small 667.6M of today's 8B 4-week bill auction. The high-rate was 3.965%, median rate 3.95%, the yield 4.033%. The bid to cover ratio showed strong demand, 3.74 bids tendered for each accepted. Demand was no doubt bolstered by the big paydown on this issuance, with 8B in bills being offered against the 16B maturing.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 1:02:30 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 12:59:36 PM

Don't know if we have anyone out there that may be in the market for some Certificates of Deposit (CD). Might do some shopping today.

I called mom today and gave her a "market call" to tell her to get on the phone with here fixed income broker. Do some shopping around the country.

Jonathan noted today's jump in the 13-week yield.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 12:57:32 PM

Headlines:

DE:766400 AUDI OF AMERICA DEC. U.S. SALES UP 15.6% VS YR AGO

DE:766400 AUDI OF AMERICA 2005 SALES UP 6.6% TO 83,066 UNITS

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 12:54:57 PM

5 to 10-year yield spread ... currently 7.5 bp.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 12:51:55 PM

Session high for ten year notes here, TNX now down 2 bps at 4.35%, while IRX holds a 6.2 bp gain at 4.082%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 12:50:39 PM

Volume has slowed to a crawl, unfortunately for bears during a short cycle downphase. However, the "weightless" cresting action in the longer intraday cycles continues to look bearish to me, so long as that 41.80 QQQQ level holds. The 4-week bill auction results are due in 10 minutes, and we could see a jolt on that news. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 12:43:33 PM

February Crude Oil (cl06g) updated bar chart at this Link ... BLUE retracement with RED 50% was the "little head/shoulder top" retracement.

PINK is now a high to low settlement.

Still understanding and monitoring much LARGER head/shoulder top pattern. Note yesterday's floor trade high.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 12:16:07 PM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 12:13:50 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 12:04:36 PM

Headlines:

[F] FORD DEC. U.S. TOTAL SALES DOWN 9%

[F] FORD MOTOR 2005 U.S SALES DOWN 4.9%

[F] FORD DEC. U.S. CAR SALES DOWN 5.8%

[F] FORD DEC. U.S. TRUCK SALES DOWN 10.2%

[F] FORD MOTOR 2005 U.S. SALES 3.17M UNITS VS 3.33M UNITS

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 12:03:44 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... New 52-weeker for the Biotech Index (BTK.X)

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 12:02:44 PM

Volume breadth is up to +2.8:1 on the NYSE, +3.5:1 on the Nasdaq here. Updated QQQQ chart at this Link , 30 min channel resistance holding at 41.80.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 11:59:21 AM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 195.42 +1.51% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 11:55:56 AM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $9.45 +1.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 11:54:32 AM

Bullish call establish stop alert for the Valero Energy VLO Feb $50 Calls (VLO-BJ) ... establishing stop at $5.20.

VLO $54.83 +0.86% ... testing downward trend on bar chart.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/4/2006 11:52:29 AM

ALERT: Long INTC APR 25 CALL raise stop to 1.30. They are starting to pile on to the INTC APR 25 puts and that is warming my heart. I am expecting this trade to get up to 28.20 and the more shorts get in, the higher we will go. INTC is a winner this year and I want a taste of it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 11:43:58 AM

Longtime readers will be acquainted with my "pipe" analogy for price channels and cycles- the idea being that each cycle is contained by and trades relative to the longer cycles, like narrow pipes within wider ones. The 60 min channel usually contains the 30, which contains the short cycle channel. I've tuned my oscillators to track most of this on a single chart- the Keltner90 in grey is the 60 min channel, the keltner35 the 30 min, the keltner10 the short cycle channel. The wavelet oscillator to which I refer measures the activity of price within that narrowest keltner10 channel. Link

JM Hurst explains it in more detail, but the idea is that when a longer channel is cresting or bottoming, the shorter cycles oscillating within it will first narrow the range of that oscillation as the broader tide turns, and then begin expanding their range in the opposite direction as the new trend begins to assert itself. In a topping pattern, I refer to this as a "weightless" range, with the short cycle flattening within the topping 60 min and 30 min channels. I think that is what we're seeing now. The pattern would be invalidated by a strong break of the current highs to 41.80, which is the current top of the 30 min channel. Meanwhile, a break below 72 SMA support at 41.42 would mark the end of the 30 min cycle upphase, and set the stage for a test of channel support at 41.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 11:29:50 AM

The Fed's coupon pass is in the amount of 844M. TNX holds a .6 bp loss at 4.364%, IRX a 6.5 bp gain at 4.085%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 11:25:19 AM

No shred of weakness apparent in volume breadth, +2.1:1 on the NYSE and +3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 11:26:33 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $66.08 +4.06% Link ... finds some action.

PnF chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 11:18:35 AM

Name / Symbol Change ... Trucker Yellow Roadway changes name to YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $47.40 +3.62% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 11:11:36 AM

QQQQ bounced up just high enough to tag our breakeven stop before falling back to range support. The short cycle is continuing lower, and the 30 min channel stalling its rise. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 11:11:24 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 11:04:37 AM

Headlines:

[DCX] DAIMLERCHRYSLER U.S. DEC. TOTAL SALES 220,641 UNITS

[DCX] MERCEDES-BENZ 2005 U.S. PASSENGER SALES RISE 1%

[DCX] CHRYSLER GROUP 2005 U.S. PASSENGER SALE RISE 5%

[DCX] DAIMLERCHRYSLER U.S. DEC. SALES DOWN 2% VS YR AGO

[DCX] DAIMLERCHRYSLER 2005 U.S. PASSENGER SALE RISE 4%

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 11:02:55 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:58:06 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 41.62, breakeven.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:45:28 AM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $9.26 -0.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:45:00 AM

Valero (VLO) $54.36 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:44:36 AM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 192.57 +0.03% ... reverses earlier losses. Looks to challenge its prior 52-week high of 192.71 set on 12/13/05.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:43:53 AM

13-week rates hold their gains, +6.7 bps to 4.087%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:42:52 AM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short from 41.62, move stop to breakeven

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:41:56 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+7.33 and set for program selling at $+5.44.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:41:26 AM

The Fed announces a permanent market operation, a coupon pass, no amount yet known, to supplement the 7.75B 2-day repo. This is equivalent to a repo that never expires, another gift from the Fed to bolster the markets. TNX drops to 4.366% as the ten year note reverses off the session low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:37:44 AM

QQQQ $41.58 +0.65% ... breaks back above it rounding lower 21-day SMA ($41.43).

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:36:38 AM

Google (GOOG) $445.47 +2.35% Link ... new all-time high today. For the second consecutive day, an analyst upgrade boosts the stock.

Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck lifting his target to $550 from $360, citing the "Google ecosystem."

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:35:14 AM

Crude oil holds a .55 loss here at 62.60, natgas -.405 at 10.22.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:30:13 AM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $58.70 +0.38% Link ... Dow component upgraded prior to this morning's opening bell at Banc of America Securities. The broker cited relative valuation, continued strong return on capital employed and a clearer outlook for production growth.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:27:42 AM

They missed our stop for the time being, in what should be a topping zone for the 30 and 60 min cycles. QQQQ traded as low as 41.55 before this most recent surge, and that becomes key support to confirm preliminary short cycle weakness should it actually appear. The short and wavelet cycles are all trending in oversold, still showing potential bearish divergences, but price needs to cooperate. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:20:49 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:13:36 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: Current 10-day NH/NL reading for the NYSE would be enough to see a 3-box reversal higher to 54%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:13:11 AM

No further announcement from the Fed's open market desk, leaving the day's net at a 13.5B drain.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:05:35 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 41.62 stop 41.68

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 10:04:15 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:02:58 AM

Session highs across the board as QQQQ's 30 min channel top climbs to 41.60. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 10:01:18 AM

Headlines:

U.S. NOVEMBER FACTORY ORDERS RISE 2.5%

U.S. NOV. TRANSPORTATION ORDERS RISE 15.8%

U.S. NOV. INVENTORIES RISE 0.2%

U.S. NOV. MOTOR VEHICLE ORDERS FALL 7.8%

U.S. NOV. INVENTORY-TO-SALES RATIO HOLDS AT 1.18

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 9:58:49 AM

Volume breadth +1.5:1 on the NYSE, +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 9:58:13 AM

The Fed announces a 7.75B 2-day repo, draining 13.5B but leaving the door open for an overnight announcement during the next half hour or so. Awaiting the Factory Odors report in five minutes, est. 2.4%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 9:54:25 AM

A failure here could close a bearish divergence on the short cycle indicators- note the much lower high on the short cycle Macd (bottom oscillator pane): Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 9:48:11 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 200.21 +0.45% ... new 52-weeker here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 9:45:15 AM

Alkermes (ALKS) $21.99 +7.21% Link ... stock is "hot" this morning after yesterday's spread triple top buy signal.

Late last week the FDA granted an approvable letter for Vivitrol, a long-acting, injectable formulation of the drug naltrexone, which has been used to treat alcoholism.

The FDA was expected to make a decision on whether to approve Vivitrol by the end of the year. The agency had been first slated to make a ruling by Sept. 30 but moved the deadline back after requesting additional information.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 9:42:34 AM

Session highs across the board, retesting yesterday's highs. QQQQ chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 9:40:49 AM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $9.23 -0.85% Link ... Earnings tomorrow morning, prior to market's open.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 9:40:27 AM

Valero (VLO) $53.66 -1.23% Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 9:38:11 AM

Session low for ten year notes here at 109 35/64, TNX up 1.7 bps at 4.387%. IRX extends its gain to 5.2 bps at 4.072%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 9:38:10 AM

Energy commodities soft early. February Crude oil down $0.67 at $62.47, Unleaded down $0.02 at $1.73, Heating Oil down $0.01 at $1.79 and Nat. Gas down $0.53 at $10.10.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2006 9:35:18 AM

Program Trading Levels for Today ... HL Camp & Company has not yet updated their buy/sell program premium levels.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 9:32:30 AM

Volume breadth is +1.3:1 on the NYSE, +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 9:31:51 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA support is at 40.90 , 30 min channel support at 41.00 , and 30 min channel resistance at 41.50 . The 60 min cycle channel is lagging the price so badly that I won't bother posting until it catches up.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 9:15:25 AM

The Fed has 21.25B in various repos expiring today, and roughly 24B for tomorrow. Unless the open market desk decides to be even more aggressive still, they will be hardpressed to maintain current lofty levels without some drains. The announcement is due at 10AM.

Tab Gilles : 1/4/2006 9:09:18 AM

The $NDX reversed yesterday on the FOMC minutes, however as of the close there was no change in the $NASI. Which doesn't mean it cannot go higher. Again I'm looking at weekly changes and it may still occur. With 1625/1600 as support and 1700 as resistance. I'm currently short the $NDX via Profund USPIX UltraShort fund.

$NASI $NDX daily weekly Link

$NDX 60 & 120 minute Link Link

$NDX weekly chart from 12/29/05 Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2006 9:02:18 AM

If you weren't bearish before this is enough to put anyone in the bear's camp. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 8:53:10 AM

Equities have reversed their losses, with QQQQ now up 12 cents at 41.43 and YM back to unchanged at 10882.

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycle upphases from yesterday are just reaching overbought levels now, obviously delivering very impressive upside traction, and are at levels from which a reversal can be expected at any time this morning. However, the daily cycle printed a buy signal on the big jump yesterday, and the shape of the 30/60 min downphase will determine how bullish we can expect that daily cycle to be.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 8:30:40 AM

Ten year notes have given back part of their gains but hold positive, TNX -.6 bps at 4.364%, once again flatter against the 13-week rate, IRX up 3.2 bps to 4.052%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 8:02:42 AM

From the MBA's website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 4, 2006) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 30. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume was 545.9 -- a decrease of 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 554.1 one week earlier. A holiday adjustment was included in the seasonally adjusted numbers to help account for the reduced application activity during the holiday week. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 20.8 percent compared with the previous week and was down 9.9 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 3.4 percent to 418.3 from 432.9 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index increased by 8.3 percent to 1363.2 from 1259.1 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 1.6 percent to 812.0 from 824.9 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 0.3 percent to 101.9 from 102.2 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is down 4.2 percent to 580.5 from 606.2. The four week moving average is down 3.3 percent to 449.2 from 464.8 for the Purchase Index while this average is down 5.9 percent to 1344.5 from 1428.9 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 42.7 percent of total applications from 40.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 28.8 percent of total applications from 32.5 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/4/2006 7:32:23 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1274, NQ flat at 1693, YM 10870 and QQQQ -.01 at 41.30. Gold is up 2.20 to 534.90, silver is up .071 to 9.23, ten year notes are up 9/64 to 109 51/64, crude oil is down .70 to 62.45 and natural gas is down .33 to 10.295.

We await the 10AM release of Factory Orders, est. 2.4%.

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