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OI Technical Staff : 1/6/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 6:36:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 6:28:29 PM

See today's NASDAQ volume? Where did that come from?

Best guess is a bunch of shorts joined the party today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 6:06:25 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Imporant NYSE NH/NL readings today. For those charting from 01/04 Link you've now got "f"ive-day building to 78 and that takes out those two other 70% readings. Your 10-day (X,O) has X ramping to 66.

Last night I posted the NASDAQ NH/NL chart Link .

You should chart "f"ive day up to 70.

Then, for the 10-day (X,O), you got a 3-box reversal up today. So ... move over one column, Place a "1" for January at 54, then place 4 X above that to 62.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 5:46:33 PM

$NASI PnF Link for those of use that can't read/understand those line charts. (grin)

$NYSI at this Link

Now compare your NYSE and NASDAQ NH/NL ratio charts to the above. See that "8"

Yes ... it is very similar to a battle. Bulls/buyer versus bears/sellers.

The NH/NL are bullish, and that's your "Generals" out in front. The troops ($NASI/$NYSI) have gathered and are marching across the field. Trampling sellers that are few and far.

Oh... there's some sellers. The crafty and fast moving would-be sharp shooter. Willing to risk his/her life to pick off one or two bulls.

Yes! At some point, the bulls/buyers will exhaust after many battles have been won. The bullish "Generals" will experience some casualties, the troops will then lack their needed leadership.

Then the war carries on.

What's the saying ... "Too many chiefs and not enough indians."

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 4:51:17 PM

QQQQ $42.66 +1.76% ... very active post-market for a Friday. $42.68

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 4:50:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long 1/2 position in CBOT Holdings (BOT) at the offer of $88.00. Stop at $85.00 and looking for a "dead cat" bounce to $99.00.

I will be out of the office on Friday.

Tab Gilles : 1/6/2006 4:48:02 PM

Added to Profunds UOPIX UltraOTC before the close, on closing NAV. Completely exited USPIX as per 1/6 10:09 AM post. Link Link

$NASI charts will out likely continue signaling Bullish, will know in later when charts are updated. Link Link

$VXN Link

For those who didn't read Jane's 10:56 AM post on Larry McMillan weekly commentary, I recommend doing so. I have to agree with most of Mr. McMillan's comments...especially on the Volatility indexes. Just look at the $VXN, I would of preferred to see it up in the weekly 16-17 range for a buy signal. Also the $NAHL weekly, here also I would of liked to see a more convincing -175/-200 bottom as a buy signal. Link

However, using the $NASI, as a disciplined indicator, it to can easily reeverse course as it did back in Feb/March or Aug/Sept 2005. When it does I'll trade accordingly. Question now is can the $NDX breakout over the 1735 resistance level? Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 4:38:23 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with February Natural Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

February Unleaded settled up $0.0285, or 1.59% at $1.8155.

February Crude Oil settled up $1.42, or 2.26% at $64.21.

3-day temperature forecast at this Link

Max/Min temperature maps from 12/28/05-01/03/06 at this Link (choose a map)

Jane Fox : 1/6/2006 4:11:52 PM

NQ was the only market to tag its R3 Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 3:58:36 PM

IBM (IBM) $85.00 +3.03% Link ... moves into its 12/12-12/13 gap.

That "right shoulder" is starting to grow into the ear.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 3:48:20 PM

QQQQ breaks back below R2, approaching 72 SMA support for the first time today at 42.53: Link

Jane Fox : 1/6/2006 3:38:49 PM

Here is the link to GOOG at $2000. Link

Jane Fox : 1/6/2006 3:36:28 PM

Jonathan Oil at $250 a barrel seems to be on the same par as the guy who was talking about Google at $2000.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 3:35:11 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $32.30 +0.62% Link ... back to test its rising 21-day SMA.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 3:35:16 PM

From the Islamic Republic News Agency: Link

The former energy advisor of U.S. President George W. Bush, Matthew Simmons, has predicted oil prices could reach as much as $250 per barrel over the coming years, citing an imminent shortage of supply and a growing global demand, especially in China and India.

"We have to expect an oil price between $200 and $250 per barrel," Simmons was quoted as saying on Tuesday in the January issue of the German-based Capital economic magazine.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 3:31:11 PM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $22.75 +1.06% ... edges above Tuesday's high.

Where do these bulls think oil is headed?

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 3:26:03 PM

Philadelphia Stock Exchange ... CNBC reporting that the days of a floor broker are limited. Moving to entirely electronic by middle of year.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 3:20:55 PM

Coffee Continuous PnF chart Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 3:18:38 PM

Volume breadth has been far stronger than anything we've seen on a sustained basis to the downside in many, many moons. I say this because many, including myself, are having trouble believing their eyes. But there has been very strong buying pressure, and a quick glance at the chart shows how much sharper the rise has been. The intraday cycles are overdue for some downside, but the bears will need to mean business to challenge the strong uptrend. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 3:15:32 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 3:04:47 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 3:02:26 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) $31.57 -0.12% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:51:09 PM

Volume breadth +3.6:1 on the NYSE, +4.15:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 2:43:32 PM

Watching Heating Oil $1.79 (unch) here.

Nat Gas $9.62 +1.27% ...

CHK $32.54 +1.37% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:42:05 PM

Charts back up. QQQQ's weekly chart has next fib resistance at 43.08 based on a retracement from the August 2004 low. Trendline resistance is in play at current levels, however. Cycle-wise, this still qualifies as a retest/throwover of the weekly cycle top. The daily is still rising, however, and all intraday cycles are maxxed out and trending. Weekly chart of QQQQ with fib and keltner overlays at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 2:37:12 PM

Need a buyer for the BOT $86.51 -0.73% ... NYSE is heavy at the offer of $86.51.

WEEKLY S2 $86.17

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:35:41 PM

Quotetracker crashed for me as I was scrolling through the various timeframes, noting overbought cycles out to 120 mins on the intradays before it crashed. Trying to get set back up here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 2:28:26 PM

Anything pointing to MONTHLY R2 in the QQQQ Jonathan? Everything else has been taken out.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:26:11 PM

At last, a high with no short cycle bearish divergences. Watch this be the one that actually sticks... Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 2:19:55 PM

If Prechter is a short, I'd say he's been caught.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:18:47 PM

QQQQ weekly chart at this Link for a better perspective on the price channels.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:16:09 PM

QQQQ's daily chart reaches rising parallel trendline resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 2:10:16 PM

DIA $109.57 +0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 2:09:54 PM

DIA-AC $2.80 +24.44% ... these are those Jan $107 Calls. I had an alert set here to sell 1/2 of the position.

Got stopped on these right at the lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:09:50 PM

YM breaks 11K, QQQQ above 42.62. Did they just catch Prechter?

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 2:07:58 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:07:28 PM

Volume breadth +3.6:1 on the NYSE, +4.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:03:43 PM

Session high for Feb. gold here, +14 at 542.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 2:01:01 PM

Good Gravy! ... Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.01 +3.68% Link

Recent NAV history for the closed end "junk bond" security at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 2:00:48 PM

3 straight days of big repo drains from the Fed, and 4 straight days of rally.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 1:59:35 PM

Any bears who were waiting patiently for a short entry here, this is the place. I believe that there's a better than usual chance of further upside despite the 4 days' of steady buying, because the daily cycle is in a clearly impulsive move. It's not often we see the 60 min cycle trending in overbought. Stops would go in the mid 42.60 area, but it's the bearish equivalent of catching a falling knife. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 1:54:49 PM

Volume breadth +4.52:1 on the Nasdaq here- the market keeps getting stronger today.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 1:54:12 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 42.54, heading for R2 and 30 min channel resistance at 42.57. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 1:51:53 PM

Just had a whopper buy program premium ... to 9.22 in last 10-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 1:51:08 PM

Here they come DIA $109.47 +0.54% ... MONTHLY Pivot $104.43 retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 1:47:25 PM

Midday News Update:

The major averages continue to ring in the New Year with gains with the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,280.81 +0.57% posting another multi-year high.

Energy sectors provide leadership after yesterday's release of weekly inventory levels, with momentum traders once again returning to Crude Oil, helped in part by Israeli Prime Minister Sharon's health concerns.

A spokesman said Mr. Sharon has shown "significant improvement" after five-hour surgery, but will remain in a medically induced coma until at least noon Sunday.

February Crude Oil futures (cl06g) $64.15 +2.16% are up $1.36 and have managed to break above key resistance at $63.93.

Technology remains a bright spot with the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,725.69 +1.19% notching a new 52-week high.

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $43.32 +4.31% and Google (GOOG) $467.36 +3.59% both post new 52-week highs after both companies move to expand their wireless and digital-video initiatives. Goldman Sachs fueled today's fire, upping estimates for Yahoo's earnings.

The NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQQ) $42.43 +1.21% looks post its fourth-straight session of gains and lurches to multi-year highs with breadth positive at 72:28. Heavyweight Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.77 +2.28% continues to lead the charge from its end-of-year close at $17.12 and is once-again today's most actively traded stock at the NASDAQ.

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.73 -0.96% reverses 3-days of gain after Credit Suisse downgraded the software giant, saying it thinks the stock is unlikely to outperform peers in 2006.

Electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY) $46.58 +7.08% surged after posting strong December same-store sales. Flat-panel TVs and MP3 players were among consumer's favorite holiday purchases.

The Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,929.23 +0.43% looks 11,000, helped by price heavyweight IBM (IBM) $84.01 +1.83% jumping more than $1.50. Big Blue said it will freeze its pension plan in 2008, saving billions of dollars even as it beefs up its 401(k) plan for current workers. The move marks a significant milestone in the shift away from traditional, defined-benefit plans.

Economic data showed a rise of 108,000 in payrolls for December, with November's gain revised upward by 90,000 to 305,000 in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The unemployment rate last month falls to 4.9%. For the year (2005), the economy added 2 million jobs. Average hourly earnings gained a nickel to $16.34, putting the year-over-year increase at 3.1%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 1:40:16 PM

So far a pretty weak wavelet cycle upphase for QQQQ, never testing the previous short cycle high. Of course, we've seen all of these signals fail this week on the relentless buying. Volume has slowed to a crawl, breadth still deep in positive territory, 30 min channel resistance up to R1 just below 42.60. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 1:11:59 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... Volume running neck-and-neck today.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 1:11:28 PM

Volume breadth +2.6:1 on the NYSE, +3.6:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ's wavelet cycle is trying to bottom here, but with the short cycle also starting to roll, there's the potential for a tending move in oversold. QQQQ bears need a break below 42.28 to kick that off. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 1:02:45 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 1:00:07 PM

Session high for GOOH here at 469.72 just printed, up over 4% today. Nasdaq volume breadth +3.73:1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 12:58:37 PM

It sure looks to me like somebody's crossing some stock in BOT today. I'm thinking the recent decline from $100 (made note of that trade in MM 12/29/05) might be some early tax gain selling from IPO.

Test for strength is $90.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 12:53:04 PM

Tidbit ... Celestica (CLS) $11.01 +0.18% selling its 200,000 square-foot facility in Ft. Collins, CO to Intel (INTC) $26.40 +0.53% for $13 million.

I believe this is just down the street from Hewlett Packard's (HPQ) $29.90 +1.70% campus.

If memory serves, CLS was a spin-off of HPQ. Need to check on that. I know Agilent (A) $32.28 -0.55% was.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 12:49:24 PM

Headline:

BUSH SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS 'SOLID'

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 12:47:17 PM

StreetTracks Gold Tr (GLD) $53.79 +2.73% ... new 52-weeker here. $537.90 gold equivalent.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 12:40:22 PM

I've typed up two consecutive short entries and restrained myself from posting, the most recent at 42.50 QQQQ. I see limited upside here without a correction first, but I'm not a fan of wide stops on countertrend plays. I think that 42.60 should cap the move on an intraday cycle basis, and stops would go in the 42.65 area. If you can tolerate a 15-20 cent stop, then this level looks like it has good potential. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 12:36:37 PM

Reminder: I will be out of the office on Monday.

Disclosure: I did pick up 1/2 position at 11:47 AM at $87.62.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 12:34:43 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 position in CBOT Holdings (BOT) $88.00 +0.97% here. Stop $85, target $99.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 12:33:48 PM

Session high for GOOG here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 12:33:07 PM

15 min chart of QQQQ at this Link , testing multiple channel tops here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 12:22:46 PM

There's a steep bearish divergence on the short cycle Macd for QQQQ- a move above 42.40 would invalidate it. But with the stochastics and TRIX trending in overbought, all these signals are suspect. The bottom line is that price is rising, not falling, and the shorter timeframe's indicators cannot cycle properly within the steady trend. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 12:17:58 PM

Volume breadth is up to +2.75:1 on the NYSE, +3.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 12:13:19 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 12:04:33 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 12:04:13 PM

New highs for QQQQ and NQ- channel resistance now lines up at 42.40 QQQQ, with R2 up at 42.55. The short cycle indicators are no longer tracking this trending move, and the 30 and 60 min cycles are like broken records, calling a bearish divergent top- clearly trending too. The daily cycle upphase is dominant. Intraday chart at this Link

Tab Gilles : 1/6/2006 12:04:35 PM

Back on 12/7/05 11:47 AM and 11/28/05 11:29 AM- I noted that on the weekly EVV chart the bullish "Long Legged Doji" candle. The MACD finally crossed signaling a buy. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 11:49:18 AM

Ten year note yields hold a 1.1 bp loss here at 4.367%, while the 13-week rate remains higher by 2.5 bps at 4.115%. Gold is 1.20 off its 540 high, +10.80 here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 11:33:56 AM

Pfizer (PFE) $24.91 +1.34% ... closing in on the $25 strike.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 11:29:46 AM

Volume breadth is back up to +2.4:1 on the NYSE, +3.1:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ's short cycle indicators are back to overbought on the verge of rolling over, but the last sell signal I took whipsawed within minutes. Bears need to see a break of 42.10 support to confirm any weakness. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 11:23:51 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $109.10, SPX 1,278.97, QQQQ $42.23

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 11:22:56 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link ... Note: Lack of new lows. Suggests that shorts/bears are starting to get more active with their covering. May also be attributed to relief of tax loss selling.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 11:21:57 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 42.22, -.10

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 11:18:05 AM

"The Pac" (PHF) gets a nice bid today. I was doing some work on the PHF last night and will follow up later today. Don't chase 3-months of dividend here. Unless you're short.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 11:05:28 AM

They're really sweating us on that 42.22 stop: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 11:05:13 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 11:02:47 AM

XNG.X / CHK montage at this Link ... using the November low and low close for XNG.X to match CHK.

Jane Fox : 1/6/2006 11:00:09 AM

AD volume is bullish but the AD line at "only" +614 tells me we are into more chop than bullish. An Ad line over +1000 would be evidence to tell me to stay long or stay out but that evidence is not there. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:58:45 AM

Session high for gold here at 539.40, +11.40, approaching the old 544 high.

Jane Fox : 1/6/2006 10:56:54 AM

Weekly commentary from Larry McMillan After a stutter step at the very beginning of the new year, the market rallied strongly on the back of the release of the December FOMC minutes. As a result, a "battle" is being waged between the bulls and the bears at the top of the recent trading range. $SPX actually traded up to a new high, above 1276, but has fallen back slightly. QQQQ has yet to make a new high, but it's near there (a close above 42.20 would do it). The bulls expect the breakout to occur at any time; the bears figure that the bulls have spent all their "new year's" money and are about out of ammo. We are not sure who's going to win this one, but we do know that we haven't seen a buy signal from any of our indicators for quite some time. Markets making new highs in the absence of buy signals do not usually hold onto those highs for long. Of course, this being the stock market, anything can happen -- especially when the institutions have a ton of money that they are willing to throw around. So, if $SPX closes above 1276, we would probably have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for at least a while.

The equity-only put-call ratios are once again mixed. The standard ratio continues to bounce around. To the naked eye, the standard ratio remains in a tight range and one probably can't officially say it's a buy or a sell until it breaks out of this range one way or the other. Meanwhile, the weighted ratio -- which we usually consider the more reliable of the two -- remains on a sell signal.

Breadth was very strong earlier this week. That means that the previous breadth sell signals are now canceled.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) probed the 12.50 area at thevery beginning of the new year, but have since fallen back some -- but not much. This might not mean much of anything, since we continue to feel that $VIX below 12.50 is probably "okay" for the market. However, it might mean that a modest uptrend is beginning in $VIX. If such an uptrend does emerge, that would not be good for the market either. In essence, with $VIX this low, it can't really generate a buy signal for the market.

In summary, $SPX price action, NYSE-based breadth, and possibly the standard equity-only put-call ratio are bullish. Everything else is either on a sell signal or is in relatively dangerous territory -- and none are anywhere near the areas that would be considered buy signals.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:48:21 AM

Volume breadth +1.9:1 on the NYSE, +2.8:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:31:52 AM

Volume breadth +1.95:1 on the NYSE, +2.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:26:47 AM

The wavelet cycle has rolled over from a lower high, confirming the short cycle downphase. Now all we need is a break beklow 41.97-42.00 support to further confirm. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 10:26:34 AM

Daily NH/NL ratio for NYSE 95.1%. That's getting very "overbought" ... scale 0% to 100%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 10:25:04 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:24:38 AM

stop 42.22 QQQQ

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:24:23 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 42.12 stop

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:22:30 AM

Volume breadth is down to +2.05:1 on the NYSE, +3.35:1 on the Nasdaq, still very strong.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:17:04 AM

Someone told me that in the Niagara Falls casino, the management had to move the one-armed bandits closer together to prevent users from urinating in between them. Stepping away for a minute.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:11:32 AM

QQQQ's wavelet cycle (middle oscillator pane) turns up from the bottom. A lower high when it reaches the top would be a short signal that should be tradeable: Link

Tab Gilles : 1/6/2006 10:09:23 AM

As per 1/4 6:33 PM post. Sold 1/2 position in USPIX at yesterday's closing NAV of $14.23. Purchases on 11/30 & 12/20 average cost basis $14.79; loss of 3.79%. Also, will sell remaining 1/2 position in USPIX if $NDX closes 1710 and adding to UOPIX. Trades... sold 1/2 USPIX @ $14.23 and bought 1/2 position in UOPIX $26.23 on 1/5/06. Plan...if $NDX closes over 1710 sell remaining 1/2 position in USPIX and buy UOPIX.

USPIX Link UOPIX Link

$NASI daily and weekly. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 10:02:33 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 10:00:03 AM

Because the keltner bands are calculated in part based on average true range, yesterday's perfectly flat range has narrowed the channels to render them meaningless. Usually, when the price exceeds an upper or lower channel band, I'm inclined to fade it with a trade. But here, every print is still holding above the current 30 and 60 min channel tops because yesterday's sideways range has distorted them. Traders looking to go short will want to see a failure below the earlier 42.34 QQQQ high- but keltner evidence is suspect this AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 9:53:28 AM

A 5.75B weekend repo drains net 8B today. But the stopout on Treasury collateral is a mere 4.15%, 10 bps below the overnight target rate, and 2.573B of the total 5.75B borrowed by the Fed dealers using Treasury collateral- indicates to me that the dealers weren't hurting for the money and are relatively flush.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 9:50:58 AM

QQQQ enters the opening gap on declining volume: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 9:47:42 AM

The Fed has another whopper of an expiration to address today, 13.5B. Bonds are weakening as we await the announcement from the open market desk.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 9:38:27 AM

Headlines:

SNOW CALLS DEC. JOB REPORT 'POSITIVE NEWS'

SNOW CONFIDENT OF STRONG JOB GROWTH IN 2006

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 9:38:09 AM

I would entirely disbelief that this move is going to stick, and it may well blow off- but the daily cycle upturn has shown zero weakness and could have potentially another week to run. Shorts trying to pick a top in QQQ will be looking to enter only in a sea of green such as we saw as I began typing this post. R2 is just above 42.50 (off the scale on my intraday chart) Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/6/2006 9:35:53 AM

Big jump on the INTC long call thanks to the Google announcement. That trade is now up almost 50%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 9:34:53 AM

Volume breadth is + 9.2:1 on the NYSE, +4.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 9:33:28 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 41.90. 30/60 min channel tops are b elow 42.10, and support is at 41.75. If QQQQ doesn't reverse hard from here, we're looking at a strong upside trending move.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 9:32:10 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 201.46 +0.43% ... new all-time high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 9:31:27 AM

Valero (VLO) $55.88 +2.02% ... gaps just above my "zone of resistance" $55.43-$55.85.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 9:28:30 AM

Feb Nat Gas (ng06g) up $0.25, or 2.58% at $9.75.

Jeff Bailey : 1/6/2006 9:25:59 AM

Minerals Management Service Table ... Quick tabulation of how much production from the Gulf came back online from 12/29/05 to 01/05/06 at this Link ... Using Lake Charles as an example ... 2 platforms were restaffed, where 2,152 barrels of oil per day came online, and 16bcf per day came online.

All total, 6,757 barrels of oil per day came online while 75 bcf per day of nat gas production was restored.

Jane Fox : 1/6/2006 8:58:18 AM

Bonds really had a wild ride with the employment data, breaking both previous day highs and lows and are now currently trading within their previous day range. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 8:48:13 AM

The disappointing jobs data is being bulled in equities, but with treasuries weaker, I don't see this as somehow suggesting that Fed will be encouraged to cut short its series of rate hikes. The move is causing the 30 min cycle downphase to tick up early again, with both it and the 60 min cycle in trending moves within the very strong daily cycle upphase. I'm very curious to see where the upside channel tops are, as QQQQ and NQ test last month's highs in the premarket.

Jane Fox : 1/6/2006 8:47:40 AM

Dateline WSJ Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is the front-runner to purchase nuclear-energy concern Westinghouse Electric Co. for more than $2.5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, in a deal that could be wrapped up in about a month.

Preparations for a purchase are under way, these people said, though it is still possible teams of rival bidders could surge ahead with new proposals. The auction for Westinghouse, which provides the technology behind nearly half of the world's nuclear power plants, is being closely watched in the U.S., Japan and England. Westinghouse, based in Pittsburgh, is owned by British-government subsidiary British Nuclear Fuels PLC.

The acquisition would give Mitsubishi technology that has been used to build reactors around the world, and that Mitsubishi had licensed from Westinghouse for years to build reactors in Japan.

Jane Fox : 1/6/2006 8:45:43 AM

Here is WSJ take on the employment data. U.S. employers increased their hiring by about half of what was expected during December, but non-farm payrolls for the prior month were revised sharply higher and the unemployment rate declined.

Nonfarm payrolls climbed by 108,000 jobs, after an upwardly revised 305,000-job increase in November, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% last month from 5.0%. There were 150.2 million in the U.S. labor force, with 7.4 million of those out of work.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had forecast an increase of 215,000 jobs and a 5.0% unemployment rate in December.

"Over the year, payroll employment increased by 2.0 million," said Kathleen Utgoff, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Labor Department revised past payroll estimates to show a 305,000-job increase in payrolls in November and a 25,000-job climb during October. Previous estimates showed a 215,000 increase in November and a 44,000 increase in October.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 8:32:52 AM

Big pop in the futures, QQQQ +.31 to 42.23. TNX is holding +.2 bps at 4.358%, IRX +.2 bps at 4.092%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 8:31:53 AM

Headlines:

U.S. DEC. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 108,000 VS. 205,000 EXPECTED

U.S. DEC. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 4.9%

U.S. DEC. AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES RISE 0.3%

U.S. DEC. AVERAGE WORKWEEK DIPS TO 33.7 HOURS

U.S. OCT., NOV. PAYROLLS REVISED UP BY 99,000

U.S. DEC. TOTAL HOURS WORKED FALL 0.2%

U.S. DEC. MANUFACTURING JOBS UP 18,000

U.S. 2005 PAYROLLS RISE 2 MILLION

WITH REVISIONS, DEC. PAYROLLS CLOSE TO EXPECTATIONS

U.S. 2005 AVERAGE HOURLY WAGES UP 3.1%

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 8:21:45 AM

Ten year note yields are up .4 bps at 4.36%, flatter against the 13-week rate which is +1.7 bps at 4.107%. Equities are edging higher as we approach the 8:30 employment report.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/6/2006 7:56:28 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1283, NQ 1724, YM 10951 and QQQQ +.16 at 42.08. Gold is up 2.70, silver +.043 at 8.918, ten year notes -1/16 at 109 23/32 and crude oil +.70 at 63.50.

We await the 8:30 releaaes of nonfarm payrolls, est. 200K, the unemployment rate, est. 5%, hourly earnings est. .2% and the average workweek, est. 33.7.

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