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Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2006 11:43:21 PM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix updated through Monday's trade at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2006 11:00:22 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/9/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 4:07:37 PM

Headlines:

HASTERT: BUSH TO DELIVER STATE OF UNION ADDRESS ON JAN. 31

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 3:46:38 PM

Daily chart of QQQQ at this Link . See you in tonight's Market Wrap!

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 3:34:46 PM

QQQQ's wavelet cycle bottomed at a higher relative low on that last dip, confirming tentative bullishness in the bottomy short cycle indicators. With these "micro" oscillators having trended in overbought for so long, I still don't trust their signals much, and so long as price holds below the 72 SMA at 42.80, the onus is on the bulls. Of course, that's just 2 cents away- actually breaking as I type. Direction remains up for grabs. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 3:19:00 PM

QQQQ is holding below 72 SMA resistance, the longest such break since Thursday, and the 30 min cycle channel is at last, finally starting to tick lower. It's not actually droping, and the indices are still green, and volume breadth is still +1.8:1 on the Nasdaq- but this remains the longest sustained break of the 72 SMA support in many hours, the first chink in the bullish armor. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 3:02:21 PM

Headlines:

U.S. NOV. CONSUMER CREDIT FALLS $649 MILLION, OR 0.4%

U.S. CONSUMER CREDIT OFF 2 MONTHS IN ROW 1ST TIME IN 13 YRS

U.S. OCT. CONSUMER CREDIT REVISED TO -$8.4B VS. $7.2B

U.S. NOV. REVOLVING CREDIT RISES $335 MILLION

U.S. NOV. NONREVOLVING CREDIT FALLS $984 MILLION

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 2:55:32 PM

Here's the bounce to retest the 72 SMA from below - 42.80: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 2:44:37 PM

QQQQ drops to 42.70, its first test of 30 min channel support in 3 sessions, but in doing so has buried the wavelet and short cycle indicators in oversold. If there are any bears left in the markets, this is where they need to prove it. Otherwise, a bounce from here would close a bear trap and set up a retest of the session highs as the short cycle turns back up. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 2:39:07 PM

Closing chart of crude oil at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/9/2006 2:37:15 PM

Dateline WSJ After several near misses in 2005, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the elusive 11000 mark Monday, tacking on gains to last week's four-day run, which was fueled by speculation that the Federal Reserve will ease off the interest-rate reins soon.

If the current gains hold, it will be the first time the large-stock gauge closed above 11000 since June 7, 2001. It first crossed it on May 3, 1999, having surged more than 1,000 points in 24 trading days after crossing 10000 for the first time -- the fastest 1,000-point gain ever posted by the average.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 2:33:34 PM

QQQQ tests the 72 SMA here, the wavelet looking bottomy as the short cycles work lower. A break below it would give the 30 min channel a preliminary bearish bias, but of course the move has to stick longer than the few minutes it did on the last such violation earlier this morning. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 2:25:40 PM

Headline:

2:24pm ADDITIONAL BIRD FLU CASES BRINGS TOTAL IN TURKEY TO 14 - WHO

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 2:16:33 PM

Volume picked up a bit on the new highs, but has fallen back along with price. The 72 SMA continues to hold as support following the 5 minute break in the first hour, and rather than lose hair trying to read the oscillators, I'm just watching that line, currently at 42.80. The bias continues to the upside so long as price remains above it. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 1:59:36 PM

Headlines:

1:57pm FEB GOLD RISES $9.30 TO CLOSE AT $550.50/OZ

1:57pm FEB GOLD'S 1.9% GAIN FOLLOWS RISE TO $551.40 25-YR HIGH

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 1:52:32 PM

Session highs across the board here, with QQQQ edging the 30 and 60 min channels higher to 42.93-.95 currently. R1 is at 43.00. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 1:41:48 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 1:38:45 PM

QQQQ update at this Link as ES and YM hit new highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 1:37:56 PM

Headline:

1:34pm HOENIG: FED FUNDS RATE AT LOW END OF NEUTRAL RANGE

1:35pm HOENIG: PATH OF MONETARY POLICY DEPENDS ON DATA

1:34pm HOENIG: FED FUNDS RATE AT LOW END OF NEUTRAL RANGE

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 1:25:05 PM

Headline:

1:24pm FED'S HOENIG SEES 2006 GDP GROWTH 3.25% TO 3.5%

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 1:24:08 PM

Volume breadth is holding at +1.6:1 on the NYSE, +2.4:1 on the Nasdaq, with QQQQ volume just over 1/3 of Friday's big 110M shares.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 1:06:18 PM

Foreign central banks took a solid 9.5B of the 34B total auctioned. On the 13-week bills, the high-rate was 4.15% yielding 4.252%, the bid to cover ratio 2.25. The 26 week bills sold for 4.25% yielding 4.404%, bid to cover 2.5.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:51:54 PM

They shanked us out of the 41.82 short, gunned it back to the high of the day, and then dopped it like a bad habit back to the 41.75 range low. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:49:35 PM

Ten year yields dip back to red, 13-week rates up 2.3 bps to 4.13%, the yield curve flattens and equities rise, a pattern we've been seeing for awhile now. Is because the same buyers are on the bid for longer-dated debt and equities? Or some other intermarket relationship?

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:44:35 PM

The wavelet was getting decent upside traction, the short cycle downphase stalling, and the Fed on the wire... no need to fight the market.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:42:23 PM

Headlines:

12:40pm GUYNN SEES MORE MODERATE GROWTH IN HOUSING SECTOR IN '06

12:40pm GUYNN: FEDERAL DEFICIT OUTLOOK 'VERY WORRISOME'

12:40pm GUYNN: SEES JOB GROWTH AROUND 175K PER MONTH IN '06

12:40pm GUYNN SEES INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAINING ANCHORED

12:40pm GUYNN SEES 2006 GDP GROWTH IN 3-4% RANGE

12:40pm GUYNN: CLOSER TO RATE PAUSE, THE LESS EXPLICIT FED CAN BE

12:40pm FED'S GUYNN SAYS U.S. ECONOMY STRONGER THAN PEOPLE THINK

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:41:53 PM

Make that 42.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:41:32 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 32.82, even

Tab Gilles : 1/9/2006 12:34:25 PM

Profund Ultra OTC (UOPIX) Recap from 1/6 10:09 AM & 4:48PM post.

Completely exited USPIX as posted. Sold remaining 1/2 position on USPIX at Friday's closing NAV of $13.73. Thus both sales USPIX average cost basis $14.79 came to a -5.47% loss. UOPIX position are half position 1/5/06 @ $26.23 & 1/6/06 $27.13 average cost basis $26.68.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:33:21 PM

If they're going to run for our stop, it should start right now as the wavelet cycle bottoms and begins to tick up. Bears who are timid or antsy can bail for a small profit right now if they don't want to risk a run, or move their stops to breakeven at 42.82. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:15:55 PM

No traction on this short from 42.81.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:06:58 PM

The short cycle indicators are looking maxxed out here- gotta try it. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:05:19 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 42.81 stop 42.88

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 12:01:17 PM

New high for QQQQ at 42.85, up against 60 min channel resistance but apparently gunning for R1 at 43.00: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:52:51 AM

Then I'm in good company, Mark.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:51:51 AM

Volume is awfully low for QQQQ despite the huge volume breadth. I keep wanting to short this range, wimping out, and then being glad I did.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:49:23 AM

I forgot to mention earlier, but I thought Jim's market wrap was top notch. It wasn't an easy market to analyze after Friday, and I thought he did a great job of it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:48:12 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- February crude steepened its losses late Monday morning to trade 61 cents lower at $63.60 a barrel. Prices touched a three-month high on Friday. U.S. crude inventories stand at 12.5% above the year-ago level, according to a government report released last week. Adding pressure to prices, acting OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said the oil cartel is unlikely to decide on a production cut when it meets on Jan. 31, according to John Gerdes, an analyst at Gerdes Group. In recent weeks, officials from OPEC members, particularly Iran, have called for a 1 million-barrel-per-day output cut.

Crude oil trades -1.025 here at 63.175, a tick above the low.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:39:21 AM

Session high for gold here at 547.20, +6.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:22:42 AM

And, the upcoming ten year TIPS auction will raise another 9B in new cash.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:20:58 AM

However, that paydown is offset by a 13B 5-year note auction announced this AM, which raises all new cash for a net drain of 7B.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:18:45 AM

More liquidity for the markets, this time via treasury paydown (borrowing less than the value of bonds maturing):

The Treasury will auction 4-week Treasury bills totaling $8,000 million to refund an estimated $14,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills maturing January 12, 2006, and to pay down approximately $6,000 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 11:08:19 AM

QQQQ is back to retesting 72 SMA support at 42.57, volume breadth down to +1.7:1, still strong but off its highs. Below the 42.52 low, the chart will look a great deal more distributive and bearish than it currently does, another retest in a long uptrend. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:50:56 AM

Volume breadth +1.4:1 on the NYSE, +2.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:44:43 AM

I'm surprised that the break to new highs didn't set off more of a launch- perhaps stops were wider than the 10 cent break above Friday's high. Still, price is holding above the breakout point, so if it bounces back up from here, that could set off the bigger move. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:38:49 AM

I wimped out as QQQQ broke 42.80, tagging 42.83 before dropping. I don't think it's too late though, as the short and wavelet cycles are rolling over. The trouble is that volume breadth remains quite strong at +2.3:1 here.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/9/2006 10:32:27 AM

Traget is still 28.23 minimum for INTC.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/9/2006 10:31:55 AM

As I thought, the INTC drop did not last.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:31:28 AM

I'm not stepping in front of this train- Nasdaq volume breadth +2.6:1 here, new highs as well.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:29:46 AM

QQQQ breaks Friday's high here, but the wavelet is now topping along with the short cycles. 30 min channel resistance is up to 42.83, which will look like a throwover to me and possible short entry- but only with very tight stop: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/9/2006 10:25:13 AM

UBS cuts INTC price target to 33 and we lose a bid there. I don't expect it to last. This is going to be the year for semis. Nevertheless, stop stays at 1.70 for APR 25 calls.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:21:38 AM

Need to step away for 5 mins.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:17:16 AM

QQQQ bounces, but the bounce is heavier than the quick drop that preceded it. A failed retest of 42.70 would spell trouble for bulls, while a breakout will trap all the sellers from Friday afternoon and this morning: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:08:42 AM

QQQQ's wavelet cycle is the first to reach oversold here, right at the pivot. If there's to be a bullish bounce, this is the first cycle to indicate it (middle oscillator pane): Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:05:43 AM

Volume breadth dropped to +1.4:1 on the NYSE, +1.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:05:23 AM

Crude oil is up .05 at 64.25 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:04:00 AM

NQ and QQQQ break the 72 SMA for the first time since Friday's opening gap above it. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 10:00:26 AM

If this rising pattern since Friday around noon is a rising triangle below 42.70, then QQQQ needs to hold 42.60 support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:56:19 AM

Big burst of volume as the Fed announces a 7B overnight repo, for a net add of 1.25B today.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:46:12 AM

QQQQ's 30 min channel resistance continues to hold at 42.80, where it's been since 3:30PM Friday. The 30 min cycle wants to top here, but price so far refuses to cooperate. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:42:41 AM

Make that +2.3:1 for Nasdaq volume breadth, still strengthening.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:39:08 AM

Volume breadth firms to +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:35:06 AM

Daily chart of QQQQ, price still testing rising parallel trendline resistance: Link

Tab Gilles : 1/9/2006 9:33:30 AM

$COMPQ & $NAHL weekly Link

$NYA & $NYHL Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:31:36 AM

Volume breadth is +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.8:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:31:09 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 42.55 , 30/60 min channel support at 42.30-42.47 , and 30/60 min channel resistance at 42.65-42.80 .

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:30:17 AM

Bonds have flipped negative and the yield curve is now steepening, with TNX up .6 bps to 4.325% and IRX still flat. The Fed has a 5.75B expiring repo for today, the announcement due at 10AM.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2006 9:17:30 AM

Dateline WSJ Tyco International Ltd. is seriously considering a plan that could break up the $60 billion conglomerate, people familiar with the matter say, undoing the sprawling company assembled by its disgraced former chief executive, L. Dennis Kozlowski.

Tyco's board is expected to meet in Bermuda this week to approve the plan, a person familiar with the matter said. It may still falter as the final details are put into place and the board casts its votes.

The company under Mr. Kozlowski tried a similar plan nearly four years ago, but it was killed because of shareholder concerns over the company's accounting. Today, with Tyco's accounting and larceny scandal behind it, investors appear more receptive to such a plan. Since the company hinted of a breakup in November, its shares have risen nearly 10%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 9:07:22 AM

The cycle picture is unchanged from Friday, except that the bearish divergences have been rendered more extreme by the extreme rise in price. 30/60 min cycles are trending in overbought, within a very strong daily cycle upphase. The daily cycle is stretching the weekly cycle within overbought, suggesting that if this is a top, it's a significant one within the longer cycles- but if it isn't, it will be an upside trending move and possibly the start of a longer-term rally. I'm inclined toward the former interpretation, but so long as prices remain strong, the bulls get the benefit of the doubt.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2006 8:53:14 AM

Dateline WSJ Gold rallied to a 25-year high in Asian trading on Monday as investments continued to pour into the metal that is seen as a hedge against U.S. dollar weakness, inflationary concerns and geopolitical tensions.

Spot gold surged $6 on Friday's New York trading close to a peak of $545.20 an ounce, with a Japanese holiday keeping volumes thin and price movements sharp.

Light profit taking, however, sent the metal back to $542.65 by 0825 GMT on Monday.

Expectations that U.S. interest rates have almost peaked buoyed bullish sentiment for gold as an alternative to currency investments, as did speculation China may use gold to diversify its foreign reserves, traders and analysts said Monday.

Although some participants said prices are likely to consolidate around current levels and perhaps ease back, many others were of the opinion that the continuing bullish sentiment means funds will now quickly target the March 1981 price of $547.25.

"If [gold] breaks through that, it's looking for $575 fairly quickly, maybe within a week," said Alastair McIntyre, director of precious metals at ScotiaMocatta in Hong Kong. "At these levels the technical patterns don't mean as much and you start to see a lot more emotion in the market -- that's when you get the bigger moves."

Other analysts pegged resistance levels at $550-$555 and $565, while $540 is now considered a significant support level.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 8:27:02 AM

Bonds hold their light gain, ZN up 3/32 to 109 11/16, the yield curve flattening further with TNX quoted -1.4 bps at 4.365%, FVX -1 bp at 4.309% and IRX flat at 4.107%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/9/2006 7:50:18 AM

Equities are fractionally lower, ES trading 1290.5, NQ 1747, YM 10990 and QQQQ +.03 at 42.71. Gold is up 1.30 to 542.40, silver up .01 to 9.18, ten year notes are up 3/64 to 109 41/64, and crude oil is up .375 to 64.575.

We await the 3PM release of Consumer Credit, est. +4.6B.

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