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OI Technical Staff : 1/10/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 1/10/2006 8:58:05 PM

INTC took a hit from the perception that DELL will be offering AMD chips. The server business is what concerns some. My feeling is that the new Mac business will easily make up for such a shortfall. There is some risk so I might bail on the INTC options and re-enter, especially if we get a nice pullback before earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 7:10:20 PM

Preview of EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate and Nat. Gas Table assuming no net change from week ended 12/30/2005 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 7:10:12 PM

Department of MMS Hurricane Katrina/Rita Table as of yesterday at this Link

One additional platform in the New Orleans block now populated.

Since 01/05/06 Link 1,602 barrels of oil per day and 23.1 mmcf of gas per day has come back online.

Roughly 26.82% of the daily oil production in the Gulf of Mexico still shut in.

Roughly 18.56% of the daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico still shut in.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 5:28:14 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 5:28:05 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 5:27:55 PM

Large Block Alert ... 500,000 shares blocked for the Dow Diamonds (DIA) at $110.08.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 4:15:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 4:09:09 PM

02:12 PM EST Temperatures with February Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

February Unleaded settled down $0.0306, or -1.73% at $1.7371.

February Crude Oil settled down $0.13, or -0.20% at $63.37.

National Weather Service Day/evening national temperature forecast (Today-Friday) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 3:36:39 PM

IBM (IBM) $83.92 +0.22% ... edges above DAILY Pivot for first time today.

DIA $109.96 -0.01% ... back to unchanged.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 3:35:56 PM

Volume breadth is up to -1.07:1 on the NYSE, -1.02:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 3:24:44 PM

QQQQ returns to the 72 SMA resistance line: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 3:11:17 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 3:02:34 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 2:55:47 PM

If the bulls lose it here, we'll have an oversold trending move in the short cycle: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 2:51:45 PM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 42.65 +.23

short cycle turning up here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 2:45:43 PM

4-Week T-bill Auction ... DJ - The U.S. Treasury awarded $8.00 billion in four-week bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 4.070%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $30.28 billion and accepted $8.00 billion, including $205.71 million of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 99.683444 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.140%.

The Treasury received no tenders from foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 3.79, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 10.09%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $3.46 billion in bills for its own account. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $16.71 billion of maturing bills, and in Monday's auction the Fed purchased $13.25 billion in three- and six-month bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

The median rate was 4.050%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.020%.

The high rate was up from 3.965% at the previous four-week bill auction.

The high rate was the highest ever for the four-week bills, which Treasury began auctioning in July 2001.

The issue is dated Jan. 12 and matures on Feb. 9, 2006.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 2:33:08 PM

Need to step away for 10 minutes here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 2:28:01 PM

I had type up an exit for the short and forced myself to wait. QQQQ just plunged back below the 72 SMA, a good headfake there, now retesting the prior low as the short cycle whipsaws back down: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 2:19:08 PM

Here's where bulls lock horns with bears. The short cycle is trying to turn, but price holds below the 72 SMA a 42.73. A break above could set up a retest of the highs (and our short stop), while a failure will likely retest the low. Critical spot. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2006 2:16:14 PM

Thanks, everyone for the nice comments. I've missed you all, but I do watch what's going on here. And it's been crazy, hasn't it? I've been glad at times that I wasn't having to make comments. I have to take off again, but since I was studying the very chart Mark mentioned (advdec) at the time he mentioned it, I thought I'd chime in about that subject.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 2:12:09 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 2:03:50 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 2:02:46 PM

Session low for ten year notes, TNX up 5 bps here at 4.428%, IRX holding +6 bps at 4.177%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 2:01:54 PM

Good to see you Linda!

Jane Fox : 1/10/2006 2:00:56 PM

Heh Linda!

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 2:00:42 PM

QQQQ loses 72 SMA support here. The wavelet cycle is bottoming, and scalpers would look to book a 16 cent profit on our Q short. 30 min cycle support is at 42.60, which would be the next target, followed by the session low.

Linda Piazza : 1/10/2006 1:57:17 PM

Mark, you called, and I'm answering. Here's a chart of the advdec line on the Keltners I watch: Link As you mentioned, it's been climbing all day, and it's now reached "do or die" time, at central Keltner resistance represented by the bold aqua-colored line. RSI isn't showing the move overdone to the upside yet and resistance lines aren't clumped together so strongly that they form an inpenetrable fortress, so I'm not getting a strong signal either way here. Now I go back into obscurity . . .

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 1:47:35 PM

QQQQ breaks wedge support.

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short from 42.88, move stop to breakeven

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 1:47:03 PM

Midday News Update:

The major averages show a mixed trade after a lower open that was partially spurred by profit taking after the Dow Industrials (INDU) 11,008 -0.03% achieved the psychological 11,000 level for the first time since June 2001.

Dow component Alcoa (AA) $29.51 -3.56% kicked off the earnings season with disappointing quarterly results, but has managed to ease off its morning lows of $28.40 and regain its rising 21-day SMA ($29.19).

Copper giant Phelps Dodge (PD) $146.33 -5.27% has also managed to reverse from a morning low of $138.00 to recapture its rising 21-day SMA ($145.55) after the company slashed its earnings forecast for the fourth quarter by more than 70%. The copper producer said results have been hurt by production and sales shortfalls of copper and molybdenum, price hedges and a range of special items. Phelps executives said they now expect earnings of $1.00 to $1.30 per share including charges, down from a prior view of $4.15 to $4.40.

Acquisition news found shares of Hughes Supply (HUG) $45.55 +18.15% surging after Dow component Home Depot (HD) $41.92 +2.69% said it would pay $3.2 billion, roughly $46.50 per share for the distributor of construction, repair and maintenance products. The pending purchase will create the nation's largest diversified distributor of construction, repair and maintenance-related products, and the two companies will serve a $410 billion market, said Home Depot spokeswoman Paula Smith. Home Depot said it expects the deal to be accretive to earnings within its first year.

General Motors (GM) $22.44 +0.13% posts a modest advance after the automaker said it plans to slash prices on 57 of its 76 models, moving away from heavy incentives that confuse buyers and take a bite out of profits. GM said the average price reduction will be $1,300, with cuts as high as $3,000.

Apple Computer (AAPL) $81.08 +6.61% jolted to a 52-week high after the company's CEO Steve Jobs said the company shipped 14 million iPods in the recent holiday quarter, up from 4.5 million a year ago, driving revenue to $5.7 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $5.04 billion, and a recent Goldman Sachs research report predicted Apple would sell 11.6 million iPods. Apple also announced a radio remote add-on for iPods priced at $49.

Economic data showed a 0.4% rise in wholesale inventories for November to a seasonally adjusted $358.65 billion, which was inline with economists' forecast. Sales fell 0.7%, the sharpest drop in more than two years on lower energy prices.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 1:42:18 PM

QQQQ tests rising support off the session low: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 1:32:55 PM

QQQQ just bounced on a retest of the breakout point, despite the toppy short cycles. There's still a lot of lift in these markets, regardless of what the indicators say. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 1:26:47 PM

I'm guessing that we just saw a terminal short cycle push with a throwover. Stop is tight just above the session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 1:26:07 PM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 42.88, stop 42.94

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 1:24:34 PM

Looks like up- QQQQ takes out both upper resistance lines: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 1:22:31 PM

The sustained move above 72 SMA support has turned the 30 min channel back up, while the 60 min cycle continues to point lower. This is compounded by a directionless but toppy short cycle for QQQQ. I have no idea which way this is going to break- it could be a bear wedge or a rising triangle: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 1:19:24 PM

Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $90.00 +4.29% ... probes WEEKLY Pivot ($89.79) here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 1:17:27 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 1:11:14 PM

Today's 8B 4-week auction was bought by central banks in the amount of 513M, a weak showing. The high-rate was 4.07%, yield 4.14%, and the bid-to-cover showing strong overall demand despite the weak participation from indirect bidders, coming in at at 3.79.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 1:02:34 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 1:00:14 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $32.71 +2.76% ... also probing this morning's high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 12:57:33 PM

Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $87.00 +0.82% ... probes this morning's opening high of $87.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 12:49:25 PM

No reprieve for treasuries, with TNX now up 4.3 bps at 4.422%, catching up to IRX which holds its 6 bp gain at 4.177%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 12:55:26 PM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+7.05 and set for program selling at $+5.14.

There have been no buy, or sell program premiums generated since the sell program premium at the opening of today's cash session.

Tab Gilles : 1/10/2006 12:40:43 PM

$NDX, $VXN, $NASI, $NAHL The $NAHL weekly has broken thru the +200 level and the $VXN is in the Buy Zone in which recent bottoms occured in the NDX. The 1735 level has been broken, so how sustainable is the advance? $NASI is still on bull mode with both the daily and weekly chart. $BPNDX is at 70 bull confirm and can go higher. Link Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 12:42:07 PM

EIA lowers 2006 WTI average price estimate by $0.06/barrel to $63.27 from its December report.

Continuous Oil - Light Sweet ($WTIC) PnF chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 12:41:37 PM

EIA sees average retail gasoline prices average price at $2.41/gallon in 2006.

Ups Q1 2006 estimate by a penny to $2.33.

Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) PnF chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 12:31:56 PM

Nasdaq volume breadth returns to negative as the wavelet cycle starts down. That may have been the top, and I blinked at the crucial moment, missing a chance to enter short on the channel test. A break below 42.70 should be enough to kick off a new short cycle downphase for the Qs: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 12:20:27 PM

Some of the short cycle indicators have reached the top but there's still possible upside left. I believe that this test of the 30 min channel top should hold as resistance, but I don't want to get run over by a terminal surge in the short cycle upphase for QQQQ. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 12:14:39 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 12:06:06 PM

Session high for QQQQ at 42.76, volume breadth up to -1.02:1 on the Nasdaq. 42.80 resistance now lines up with the 30 min channel top: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 12:04:30 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 11:54:21 AM

February Nat. Gas (ng06g) ... according to the NYMEX, yesterday's settlement was $9.3600. NYMEX Link

I believe my QChart's "Net" and "Net%" for the day are not correct.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 11:40:09 AM

QQQQ retests 72 SMA resistance from below: Link . This is the equivalent of where it failed on the last attempt at 10:40AM.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2006 11:36:24 AM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 11:34:35 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/10/2006 11:30:02 AM

Dateline WSJ -- General Motors Corp. on Tuesday announced plans to slash prices on most of its models as part of an effort to more accurately reflect what consumers are willing to pay and move away from the heavy incentives that confuse buyers and take a bite out of the auto maker's profits.

GM is trimming sticker prices across the board on its top-selling Chevrolet brand, as well as on vehicles produced under the GMC and Buick names. Prices will also be slashed on certain vehicles produced by the company's Pontiac and Cadillac divisions. In total, 57 of GM's 76 models will be eligible for discounts.

The average price reduction on eligible vehicles will be $1,300, with cuts as high as $3,000 on some vehicles, Mark LaNeve, head sales and marketing for GM, said at a press conference. He said that incentives will still be offered, but that they are expected to be lower than what is currently available.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 11:25:08 AM

QQQQ still hasn't broken yesterday's low. The 30 and 60 min cycles are in ongoing synchronous downphases with room to run before reaching oversold, but so far the traction has been weak since the opening bell. The short cycle could go either way from here, but is showing a small bullish Macd divergence off the second low. Link Until we start seeing some of those long vertical sell candles, which we haven't yet, it's safe to say that the daily cycle upphase is not over, and the 30/60 min downphases are so far looking corrective within it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 11:18:35 AM

Volume breadth is back down to -2:1 on the NYSE, -1.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 11:14:13 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 11:10:18 AM

QQQQ is back to the 42.55 low after a weak bounce that failed at the 72 SMA. Link 30 min channel support is down to S1 at 42.44, but the wavelet is trying to put in a bottom at the prior 42.55 low in the meantime.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 11:02:44 AM

New low for ZN 10-year note futures Link trading well below yesterday's low, TNX now up 3.3 bps at 4.412%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 11:02:30 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:49:13 AM

Ten year notes hit a low of the day here, TNX up to a 2.2 bp gain at 4.401%, back this morning's opening levels. IRX has edged back slightly to a 6 bp gain at 4.177%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:47:53 AM

QQQQ just erased the last half hour's gains in 2 3-min candles, again stalling the short cycle upphase as the wavelet rolls over. This is clearly bearish intraday action, but it's worth noting that price is at/above the opening gap down. Nothing other than sideways chop has occurred since the opening bell. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:43:14 AM

Volume breadth recovers to -1.55:1 on the NYSE, -1.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:33:31 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , approaching 72 SMA resistance here. The bounce feels hesitant, however, and bulls will want to see 42.80 cleared. The short cycle upphase is so far very weak.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 10:24:11 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $58.27 +3.55% ... sets up for test of 52-week high ($58.63).

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 10:23:13 AM

Alcoa (AA) $28.88 -5.52% Link ... Dow component sharply lower after the aluminum giant reported net income from continuing operations of $210 million, or $0.24 a share on revenue of $6.67 billion.

The results were shy of consensus estimates for earnings of $0.37 a share on revenue of $6.69 billion.

Alcoa said earnings were hurt by charges of $93 million, or $0.11 a share due hurricane activity slowing output from its Jamaica and Texas refineries, while an unplanned outage at the big Portland, Australia, smelter and a strike by workers at facilities in Spain also hampered production.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:22:41 AM

Stuck on a call - back in a few.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:16:21 AM






Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:15:16 AM

Volume breadth -1.95:1 on the NYSE, -1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 10:13:19 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has not yet updated today's buy/sell program premium level.

Yesterday's levels were for buying at $+7.05 and selling at $+5.14.

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 10:11:19 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:10:13 AM

QQQQ returns to yesterday's low and the pivot. A break above it targets 72 SMA at 42.77 and the 42.80 level. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:09:08 AM

Abattoir... tres bien dit, monsieur Davis. Ca reste a voir, quand meme...

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 10:03:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:03:03 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:01:35 AM

Briefing had reported the consensus estimate for Wholesale Inventories as being +.5%, for what it's worth.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 10:00:45 AM





Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 9:57:45 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $109.53 -0.40% ... with updated WEEKLY Pivot Retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:54:39 AM

The Fed announces no action today, allowing 7B in expiring repos to drain.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:53:39 AM

If the bulls lose it here, 30 min channel support is down to 42.53 QQQQ. But with the 30 and 60 min cycles so far from oversold, there's a good chance that the channels will continue to work their way lower. This is a very early whipsaw for the short and wavelet cycle upphases. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/10/2006 9:46:36 AM

S&P 500 (SPX) with updated WEEKLY Pivot Retracement at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:45:07 AM

Don't forget Construction Spending at 10AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:44:34 AM

Volume breadth is up to -2.4:1 on the NYSE, -1.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:40:20 AM

QQQQ tests yesterday afternoon's low from below, right at today's pivot: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:36:53 AM

QQQQ holds within yesterday's range so far: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:35:34 AM

Volume breadth is -4:1 on the NYSE, -2.15:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:32:06 AM

QQQQ is at 30/60 min channel support at 42.57. 72 SMA resistance is at 42.80, 30/60 min channel resistance at 42.95-.97.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:17:17 AM

Ten year note yields have pulled back to a 1 bp gain at 4.389%, while IRX continues to rise, now up 6.5 bps at 4.182%.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2006 9:12:09 AM

Yesterday the Ad line and volume were very bullish although not as bullish as they were on Friday. Unfortunately I don't think we will see another day when these two are talking so clearly, for when they do trading is a lot easier. I suspect these two will hang around the 0 line and we will have a choppy sideways day. There can be many opportunities on days like this as long as the moves are large enough. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:07:20 AM

In last night's Market Wrap, I discussed the new cash being raised in the upcoming Treasury auctions, and characterized their impact as net drains to liquidity available to the market. For those interested in getting more detail on that issue, there's a good article that delves into more detail at this Link .

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 9:03:48 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles have rolled over from their positions at the top of the stratosphere, and this morning's minor dip even has the daily cycle indicators hesitating slightly. There's a lower high so far, but yesterday's low needs to be taken out to suggest more potential trouble for this huge daily cycle upphase from last week. Mitigating that bearish view is the short cycle, which has delivered its downphase and is looking for a bounce. I will update the levels when they refresh at the opening bell.

Jane Fox : 1/10/2006 8:48:28 AM

Dateline WSJ Home Depot Inc., making its largest acquisition yet as it seeks growth beyond its big-box stores, agreed to acquire Hughes Supply Inc., a major construction-supplies distributor, in a cash deal valued at nearly $3.5 billion including debt.

The Atlanta-based home-improvement retailer said it agreed to pay $46.50 per share, or about $3.19 billion, and assume $285 million of Hughes' net debt. Hughes shares closed Monday at $38.55 apiece, up 42 cents in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The acquisition price represents a 21% premium to Monday's close

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 8:39:29 AM

That's a big move in the 13-week rate (IRX), up 5.5 bps at 4.172%. The last time we saw these levels was in March 2001.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 8:35:21 AM

Bonds caught a brief bid on the Dutch news, but have fallen back, ZN down 11/64 here at 109 27/64. TNX is up 2.2 bps at 4.401%, flatter again against the IRX, which is up 5 bps at 4.167%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 8:19:06 AM



Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 8:16:55 AM



Jonathan Levinson : 1/10/2006 7:54:28 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1291, NQ 1747.5, YM 11007 and QQQQ -.18 at 42.67. Gold is down 5.90 to 544.70, silver is down .222 to 9.06, ten year notes are down 1/32 to 109 9/16, crude oil is up .575 to 64.075 and natgas is down .055 to 9.305.

We await the 10AM release of Wholesale Inventories, est. .5%.

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