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Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 11:42:07 PM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.71 and set for program selling at $+4.93.

According to HL Camp & Company, NDX 1,758.24 +0.81% Link stocks that were sold the most during sell programs executed on Wednesday: DISH Link , ADSK Link , EBAY Link , SIRI Link , GRMN Link , CHRW Link , YHOO Link , ESRX Link , ORCL Link , AMZN Link , INTU Link , ALTR Link , LNCR Link , FISV Link , CMVT Link , PCAR Link , SIAL Link .

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 11:18:35 PM

Department of MMS Hurricane Katrina/Rita Table as of 01/11/06 at this Link

01/09/06 report at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/11/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 6:49:58 PM

Pivot Matrix for tomorrow found at this Link ... Monthly R2s all around for the majors. Booooyaah!

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 5:46:45 PM

Large Block Alert at 04:10:22 PM EST, 1.5 million shares of QQQQ were crossed at $43.16.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 5:26:20 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 5:12:09 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 4:54:52 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long shares of El Paso Corp. (EP) at the offer of $12.62. Stop currently at $11.90 with target of $14.00.

When I initially profiled EP (11:45:06) I incorrectly typed $15.00 as the target. My target is $14.00 (see 12:40:46)

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 4:24:16 PM

02:12 PM EST Temperatures with February Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlement at this Link

February Unleaded settled down $0.004, or -0.23% at $1.7331.

February Crude Oil settled up $0.57, or 0.90% at $63.94.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 3:04:47 PM

Stepping away for the day. Not feeling well, and going in search of Advil.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/11/2006 2:51:58 PM

Could you comment on the VIX having to fill the gap down at 10.20 ish? Do think this is ness before we roll over? And as a rule of thumb do most gaps get filled on this type of indicator? The gap is about .65 down from where we are now....maybe one percent more climb in the indices?

I have gotten into this subject on my blog. I think the VIX is telling us this rally has legs. I know this goes against every media outlet there right now (trading media), but look at this chart and you will see what I mean. The rally started at a predictable spot, where I suggested last week it would on the upper end of VIX envelope, but it has basically stayed around the 10 day ema and refuses to drop much further. This tell me that volatility is starting to rise and that historically means higher equity prices. Shorts are piling on to this rally. Will we close that VIX gap? Possibly. If you want to really be patient, wait for a VIX drop there, but it might never happen again for ten years. I'm expecting the lower band to move up and maybe VIX not getting much lower than 10.5 as volatility seems to be on the rise. Do not be surpised if equities are trading with a VIX around 15 by next quarter, but trading UP from here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 2:46:02 PM

QQQQ has blown out the tops of the rising wedges and flags with today's print. Daily chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 2:39:17 PM

QQQQ is breaking R2 here, with the 30 min cycle resuming its uptrend, the channel top rising to 43.32. No sign of weakness whasoever on a short cycle basis: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 2:26:10 PM

Volume breadth +1.4:1 on the NYSE, +1.8:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ makes new high.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 2:12:06 PM

QQQQ retests the high on a burst of volume here, 30/60 min channel resistance holding at 43.30. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 2:09:02 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 2:06:10 PM

Headline:

2:01pm GEITHNER: U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT POSES GROWTH RISK

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 2:02:04 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 1:53:14 PM

A bad tick just printed to 42.15, clearly a keystroke error somewhere. Link Quotetracker users can clean their charts by clicking the chart once and pressing crtl-shift-L.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 1:50:47 PM

Volume breadth +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 1:46:15 PM

Midday News Update:

The major indices have been relatively flat with an earnings warning from chemical giant Du Pont (DD) $41.26 -3.03% offsetting Boeing's (BA) $69.63 +0.75% announcement that privately held Mobile Satellite Ventures signed a three-satellite commercial contract valued at $500 million to $1 billion. Boeing said the deal is its largest commercial win in nine years.

Boeing also announced it agreed to sell 68 planes to state-run Air India in largest single deal in India's civil aviation history. The deal is valued at $11.8 billion at list prices, which don't account for typical discounts.

Shares of Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $30.94 +0.51% lend to technology's strength again today. Prudential upped it rating to "overweight" citing benefit of continued cost reductions, improved tactical execution, consistency and credibility, and strong earnings growth momentum.

Shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $62.22 -1.39% retreated after CNBC reported the company will make a higher bid for Guidant (GDT) $70.50 +1.59%. Guidant's board has until midnight to get back to Boston Scientific (BSX) $25.48 -3.73% about its rival $25 billion bid for Guidant.

The NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQQ) $43.14 +0.58% continues to impress with strength helped by Apple Computer (AAPL) $84.08 +4.00% with broker UBS raising its target from $86 to $100. The broker cited yesterday's lifting of revenue guidance from CEO Steve Jobs.

Energy prices have been mixed and somewhat volatile after the EIA said crude oil inventories fell a sharp 2.8 million barrels, while unleaded gasoline and distillate inventories surged by more than 4.5 million barrels. Suffice it to say, refiners have been very busy the past week.

February Crude Oil futures (cl06g) $63.75 +0.59% are up $0.43, while February Heating Oil futures (ho06g) $1.73 -2.25% are down $0.04 as warmer weather persists.

Shares of Valero Energy (VLO) $57.00 +0.40% have reversed their morning losses after falling to $55.06 earlier this morning.

Homebuilders were flat after the Mortgage Bankers Association's home-purchases index rose 9.3% in the week ended Friday from a week earlier, while the refinance index climbed 9.9%. A fixed rate on 30-year loans falls for fifth-straight week to average 6.08%, it lowest since the week ended October 28, 2005.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 1:36:18 PM

The Qs seem to be putting in a rounding top today since the 1PM support break, but unfortunately, the short cycle had been declining for an hour before that and is closer to oversold than overbought. Shorts entering here are betting on a full breakdown and possible short cycle oversold trending move over the next 2 hours, which is certainly possible but requires a wider stop and stronger stomach. I'm not considering a long play at these levels, but it could be early for a short as well due to the oscillator setup: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 1:25:46 PM

Session low for ten year notes here at 108 31/32, TNX +3.6 bps 4.464%, steepening against IRX, up 1 bp at 4.187%.

Tab Gilles : 1/11/2006 1:37:40 PM

Nasdaq100 ($NDX) Looking at longterm chart, I'd mentioned yesterday (12:40PM) that the 1735 level being broken was significant. Looking at the 2 1/2 year chart you can see the uptrend channel and buy and sell points. I'd expected a sellof last month, having targeted 1625 as a downside target. Obviously it went against me, asboth the daily and weekly $NASI reversed and signaled buy. However, currently we could see a run here similar to that of the spring and summer of 2003. Where the indicators gave mixed signals. Link

$NDX PnF chart... Link

$NDX daily Link

$VXN daily Link Weekly Link

$NASI daily Link Weekly Link

Profund UOPIX UltraOTC fund entered on 1/5/06 and 1/6/06 each 1/2 positions average cost basis $26.68. Gain thus far as of last nights closing NAV of $27.40; + $0.72 +2.7% Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 1:16:43 PM

Headlines:

1:15pm GEITHNER: LOW RISK PREMIUMS FOR ASSETS COMPLICATES OUTLOOK

1:15pm GEITHNER: ASSET PRICE DOUBTS WIDEN RANGE OF NEUTRAL FED RATE

1:15pm GEITHNER: CURRENT FED POLICY COMPLICATED BY ASSET PRICES

1:15pm GEITHNER: FED POLICY HAS TO TAKE ASSET VALUES INTO ACCOUNT

1:15pm FED'S GEITHNER: FED POLICY CAN'T BE USED TO POP BUBBLES

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 1:13:28 PM

QQQQ is testing the 72 SMA support line for the first time today. A break below 43.07 would shift the intraday bias to cautiously bearish- so far, however, every remotely bearish print has been sharply reversed. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 1:11:42 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 1:04:01 PM

Foreign central banks took 3.68B of the 13B total in 5 year notes auctioned today. The notes sold at a high-yield of 4.37% and generated 2.1 bids tendered for each accepted. Gold and silver spiked as the results were released, while QQQQ has edged below rising trendline support for the first time today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 1:03:33 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 12:45:00 PM

Feeling not-well, and stepping away. I'll be back in 15 to update on the results of the 5-year note auction.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 12:40:46 PM

QQQQ slowed its climb slightly on the last high, missing rising linear resistance, but still holds bullishly above both rising linear support and the rising 72 SMA at 43.03: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 12:36:51 PM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $12.62 +1.61% ... here's my bar chart at this Link ... Breaking above "right shoulder" of H/S top and good short interest Link

Tab Gilles : 1/11/2006 12:33:03 PM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration Fund (EVV) Followup to 1/6 12:04PM post.

EVV has moved strongly in the past 3 weeks, up nearly 10%. Price objective $17.50 - $17.75 range.

Daily chart... Link Weekly chart... Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 12:13:38 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 12:08:20 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 12:06:21 PM

Volume breadth 1:1 on the NYSE, +1.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 12:02:38 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 11:59:19 AM

Rising trendline support being tested on QQQQ: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 11:49:35 AM

Same action as yesterday- QQQQ blasts over all linear resistance then whipsaws back below it. It remains bullish above the former 43.10 high, however. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 11:45:06 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 position in utility El Paso Corp. (EP) $12.62 +1.61% Link here, stop $11.90, target $15.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 11:40:53 AM

Bullish triangle it is, as QQQQ breaks resistance and reaches R1. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 11:41:42 AM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $12.61 +1.52% Link ... breaks above congestion resistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 11:38:39 AM

Same situation as yesterday for QQQQ- either a bullish triangle or a bearish wedge: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 11:29:31 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Note: CHK ... there was a "bad tick" this morning. Avg. OHLC looks to be about $32.50

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 11:24:07 AM

QQQQ bounces, again cutting the short cycle downphase several hours short, in an intraday trending move here. It may be distribution or it may not, but this is very bullish action here. Another day of higher highs and higher lows, completely ignoring the intraday cycle configurations. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 11:14:23 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 11:08:59 AM

Volume breadth is down to -1.03:1 on the NYSE, +1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 11:05:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 11:02:40 AM

Headline:

10:59am API: CRUDE SUPPLIES DOWN 5.4 MILLION BARRELS

API: GASOLINE SUPPLIES UP 5.4 MILLION BARRELS

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:54:02 AM

Here's the move I tried to catch at 10:25AM: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:49:29 AM

Shanked out of a nice short entry at the double top, and the short cycles look (over)due for a downphase. The trouble is tha the higher lows against the 43.10 high is a bullish triangle. Bears need a break of 43.02 to invalidate the pattern. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 10:48:24 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Diesel, Jet Fuel Inventory Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:43:18 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Exit now at 43.09. No traction on this short.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 10:37:32 AM

EIA Weekly Inputs, Refinery Operable Capacity, Percent Utilization Table found at this Link

Valero Energy (VLO) $55.35 -2.53%

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:35:15 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:33:41 AM

QQQQ needs to start dropping soon if those short cycles are going to get any downside traction. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:32:23 AM

From the EIA website:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 2.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 318.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 4.5 million barrels last week, putting them in the middle of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories jumped by 4.9 million barrels last week, and are near the upper end of the average range for this time of year. A large increase in low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel) inventories added to an increase in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil) inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week, and remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:32:53 AM

Headlines:

DOE: CRUDE SUPPLIES DOWN 2.9 MILLION BARRELS

DOE: GASOLINES SUPPLIES UP 4.5 MILLION BARRELS

DOE: DISTILLATE SUPPLIES UP 4.9 MILLION BARRELS

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:28:21 AM

Volume breadth +1.25:1 on the NYSE, +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 10:27:03 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $110.12, SPX 1,290.78, QQQQ $43.03

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:25:51 AM

Betting on the channel tops to hold and a likely short cycle top. Tight stops just in case. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:24:45 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 43.10 stop 43.17

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:18:23 AM

Session high for QQQQ here, testing 30/60 min channel resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 10:12:41 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 10:04:07 AM

QQQQ's been in a sideways downphase for the wavelet cycle, while the short cycle holds near the top of its range. This is a recipe for a blast back up before a more meaningful short cycle downphase kicks off. Sometimes, the price can just fall straight away and cause the wavelet to trend at the bottom, but the bounce is more likely first given the weak wavelet decline this AM. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 10:03:09 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:59:59 AM

Sell Program Premium DIA $110.03, SPX 1,289.22, QQQQ $42.95

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:59:47 AM

No action from the Fed today, with no expiries. A rare neutral day for the Open Market Desk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:58:07 AM

Oracle (ORCL) $12.65 +0.23% Link ... DJ - Software giant's debut $5.75 billion bond offering sells out quickly, with the three-part deal increased in size and trading at a higher price in the secondary market. But some investors say they viewed pricing terms as aggressive.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:57:13 AM

Volume breadth is down to +1.05:1 on the NYSE, +1.35:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:53:16 AM

No word from the Fed yet, with no repo expiries for today. Any amounts added today will be net adds.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:45:39 AM

BP Amoco (BP) $67.32 -1.26% Link ... Oil major sees Q4 output down on year due to past hurricane activity. Estimates output to fall slightly in Q4 2005 from the same period last year with over $1.3 billion in refining and marketing charges. Additional repairs due to hurricane damage and the listing of U.S. platform Thunder Horse are expected to lead to further costs of about $130 million.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:41:06 AM

And dojies right back up from the 42.87 low.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:40:53 AM

QQQQ closes its opening gap and tests gap support at the pivot: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:39:01 AM

Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $89.25 +0.41% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:37:36 AM

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) $9.107 -2.45% ... lows of the month here.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $32.65 -0.27% Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:35:59 AM

QQQQ tests yesterday's high from above: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:34:43 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $110.11 +0.02% ...

Dow Industrials (INDU) 11,012.86 +0.01% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:33:34 AM

Volume breadth is +1.35:1 on the NYSE, +2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:33:57 AM

Du Pont (DD) $41.00 -3.64% Link ... Dow component lowers Q4 guidance. Now expects to earn $0.10 vs. prior guidance of $0.20-$0.25 due to operation disruptions from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as weaker-than-anticipated performances in its crop-protection chemical, performance coatings and surfaces businesses.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:31:10 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 42.75 , 30/60 min channel resistance at 42.89-.93 , 30/60 min channel support at 42.55 .

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:30:41 AM

Mortgage Bankers Assoc. Table found at this Link

Full report at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:27:00 AM

More flattening in the yield curve, TNX now down 1.4 bps to 4.414%, IRX up 3 bps to 4.207%. The foreign central bank participation at today's 5 year note auction will be an important indication to watch- the aggressive buying of long dated debt to the exclusion of short dated debt (ie yesterday's 4-week auction) has been an important factor contributing to the flattening of the yield curve.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 9:23:56 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are in synchronous upphases but at lower highs against the new price highs- a potential bearish setup IF the price fails this morning. Because the daily cycle continues up on its impressive upphase, there's little to suggest such an outcome, however- the bulls have the ball until clear evidence to the contrary, such as a strong break of a previous session low. I will update the intraday levels when they refresh at the opening bell.

Jeff Bailey : 1/11/2006 9:01:22 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+7.05 and set for program selling at $+5.11.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 8:22:53 AM

Ten year notes here are flat, and TNX has opened unchanged at 4.428%, flatter against the IRX which is up another .8 bps to 4.185%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 8:02:15 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage activity as tracked by the number of applications filed jumped 9.9% in the week ended Jan. 6 compared to the prior week, data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association show. Also on a seasonally adjusted basis, applications for mortgages to purchase homes rose 9.3%, while refinancing applications increased 9.9%. Refinancings accounted for 42.2% of total applications, down from 42.7% in the final week of 2005, while adjustable-rate mortgages slipped to 28.1% from 28.8%. Average contract interest rates for 30- and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell last week to 6.08% and 5.66%, respectively, from 6.15% and 5.74% a week earlier. One-year ARMs averaged 5.42% last week, nosing up from 5.41%. Overall, the four-week moving average for mortgage applications was off 0.8%, the MBA said.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/11/2006 8:00:52 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1296.75, NQ 1759.5, YM 11056, QQQQ +.08 at 42.96. Gold is down .80 to 545.10, silver is down .046 to 8.97, ten year notes are down 1/32 to 109 13/64, crude oil is down .125 to 63.25 and natgas is down .09 to 9.245.

We await the EIA petrol report at 10:30.

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