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Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 11:09:00 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.01 and set for program selling at $+4.24.

OI Technical Staff : 1/17/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 9:11:30 PM

Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link ... DIA $108.30 extended session (defensive below DAILY Piv/WKLY S1 at tomorrow's open).

SPY $127.58 extended session (defensive below DAILY Pivot/WKLY S1 correlation at tomorrow's open).

QQQQ $42.23 extended session.

Conventional Pivot Level equations

Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)

Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low

Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3

Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High

Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 5:53:02 PM

Intel (INTC) $25.54 -0.96% ... continues to decline in extended session. $23.10 now.

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $38.83 -1.62% ... $37.65 here. Conventional Weekly Pivot Levels are Pivot= $39.77, S1= $38.91, S2= $38.30.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 5:47:05 PM

INTC has strong opex support at 22.50 strike. If you are adventurous, you can buy some after hours on a trade there. INTC is not going out of business. Let's see what Cramer says. He moves the market there.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 5:40:22 PM

ALERT: Cancel the stop on INTC APR 25 calls.
Obviously, at this point it is best to cash in the Januray 25 puts tomorrow and hold on to the APR 25 calls. If you did not buy the puts, realize that INTC goes through these cycles and usually picks up steam again within a few weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 5:25:10 PM

IBM (IBM) $83.00 -0.20% ... steady at $83.00. (INDU/DIA heavyweight)

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 5:22:37 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.44 in extended.

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $127.66 in extended.

NADAQ-100 Tracker (QQQQ) $42.23 in extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 5:18:52 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 5:11:30 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 5:03:54 PM

If you bought the January 25 puts, you might as well sell them tomorrow and have a free ride with Apr 25 calls. The selling is so strong, those 30 cent puts could be worth 2 at open.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:53:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Bullish swing trade stopped in the 1/2 position for shares of CBOT Holdings (BOT) at $88.00 ($0.00, or 0.00%). BOT went out at $89.11 -0.56%.

Closed out the 1/3 position in the Chesapeake Energy CHK Apr. $32.50 Puts (CHK-PZ) at the bid of $2.10 ($-1.00, or -32.26%).

Swing trade sold covered calls on the 1/2 bullish El Paso Corp (EP) $13.29 +2.78% position. Sold a matching four (4) of the EP Feb. $13 Calls (EP-BO) for $0.55.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 4:39:34 PM

The SOX will get whacked tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 4:38:36 PM

Slight overeaction, but INTC will get pinned below 25 this week, no doubt.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:37:46 PM

Google (GOOG) $467.11 +0.18% ... lower at $451.36 in extended. Newly added NDX/QQQQ component here.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 4:37:13 PM

A total disater. INTC will have a hardtim egetting back up before next earnings cycle. There will be buyers above 23, so I would recommend closing both Jan puts and APR longs. We will see what the open gives.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:36:51 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $40.11 +0.52% ... plunges to $35.66 on headline numbers.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 4:34:55 PM

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Intel Corp., the world's biggest computer-chip maker, said fourth-quarter profit rose 16 percent as laptop shipments gained during the holidays. Net income increased to $2.45 billion, or 40 cents a share, from $2.12 billion, or 33 cents, a year earlier, Santa Clara, California-based Intel said today in a statement distributed by Business Wire. Sales rose 6.3 percent to $10.2 billion, the first time quarterly revenue has surpassed $10 billion. Sales this quarter may miss analysts' estimates. Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini has lost orders in server computers aimed at businesses, a market where Intel sells its highest-priced chips and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is now picking up sales, analysts said.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:29:36 PM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $61.28 -0.87% ... $61.82 last tick in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:29:00 PM

Boston Scientific (BSX) $23.90 -5.15% ... $23.92 last tick in extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:28:16 PM

Guidant (GDT) $76.22 +7.59% ... higher at $76.40 after calling Boston Scientific's (BSX) $23.90 -5.15% offer superior to that of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $61.28 -0.87%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:21:00 PM

IBM (IBM) ticking $83.04 here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:20:20 PM

IBM (IBM) $83.00 -0.20% ... World's biggest computer company said Q4 net income rose to $3.19 billion, or $1.99 from a restated $2.83 billion, or $1.67 per share in the year-ago quarter. Excluding items, IBM said it earned $2.11 per share in the recent quarter, easily surpassing consensus of $1.94.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 4:16:39 PM

Those Jan 25 puts are in the money.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:16:08 PM

Intel (INTC) $25.54 -0.96% ... plunges to $24.20 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:10:13 PM

IBM (IBM) $83.00 -0.20% ... $83.89 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:09:36 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $109.06, SPY $128.38

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 4:13:04 PM

02:13 PM EST Temperatures with February Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

February Unleaded settled up $0.0922, or 5.33% at $1.8233.

February Crude Oil settled up $2.39, or 3.74% at $66.31.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 3:56:45 PM

I've got February Nat Gas (ng06g) gapping higher at $9.28 after Tuesday's settlement of $9.168.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 3:55:54 PM

Swing trade put close out alert ... close out the Chesapeake Energy CHK Apr $32.50 Puts (CHK-PZ) at the bid of $2.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 3:45:04 PM

QQQQ holds right in the middle of today's range, a doji star on the daily but still from a lower low and lower high, with the first sell signals showing on the daily cycle oscillators: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 3:39:04 PM

QQQQ breaks rising linear support, but on light volume. Currently returns to test 72 SMA support at 42.64. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 3:33:07 PM

Shell Oil ... confirms it has shut in 115,000 barrels of oil per day on some offshore Niegerian oil platforms.

February Crude Oil (cl06g) settled up $2.39, or +3.74% at $66.31.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 3:29:36 PM

Ten year note yields finished -1.8 bps at 4.332%, 13-week rates +1.2 bps at 4.232%. Daily chart of TNX updated at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 3:26:22 PM

ALERT
This is the time or never to buy those Jan 25 puts on INTC at .30. It wouls raise the cost of the APR 25 calls to 2.10. Safe traders should take this hedge as any good news would send INTC up to 26.50 in no time and the APR 25 calls way ahead of 2.10. Realize that the INTC 25 january puts would really only work in a disaster situation, so take the Feb ones if you want, but at that point, the trade becomes too expensive, I think.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 3:16:12 PM

QQQQ is right back to where it started this morning. Classic opex action.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 3:15:23 PM

QM Exit Point Alert
Rasie stopt to 66.525.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 3:14:23 PM

We are re-opening in 2 mns, I might exit the trade but I don;t want ti get caught in a small bounce. As I said, we are at weekly R2 and that is powerful R.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 3:13:39 PM

QM Exit Point Alert
QM short 66.10, raise stop to 66.40.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 3:09:03 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 3:07:48 PM

INTC has been hurt a little in the server area by AMD. Any product announcement there is going to also get us going. My only fear is opex wanting to pin 25. I feel very good about INTC after opex, as many puts have been building at 25 strike for FEB and APR. This week is a little scary, but that is why we trade. If it was safe and easy, your baby-sitter could trade. Trading is about guts and risk control in just the right doses. Too much of either, you fail. Not enough, you fail also.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 3:04:56 PM

Volume breadth holds at -2.05:1 on the NYSE, -2.2 :1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 3:02:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 2:58:56 PM

QQQQ's short cycle rolled over and has just aborted a corrective downphase- bullish- but is hanging at a lower price high- potentially bearish. There's no discernable pattern to the intraday prints, and this is a perfect kick off to opex week. 42.75-.80 looks like the key resistance area to me, also downtrend resistance, and so far the action below looks like mostly noise. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 2:37:50 PM

You can play the calendar and hedge with INTC FEB 25 puts. Throw away hedging would be the January 25 puts at .30 now, basically a re-investment of profits from last week and not a bad idea. Please do so if you do not wish to be uni-directional on this trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 2:34:57 PM

Headline:

HOUSE PANEL SETS FEB. 15 FOR BERNANKE MONETARY POLICY REPORT

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 2:19:06 PM

Session high for crude oil, up 2.15 to 66.075.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 2:17:53 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase is in a preliminary upturn on the break above the 72 SMA, which would suggest that this pullback is a bull flag. But the short cycle blew itself out to the upside and the 30 min channel break marked the top of the rise. Price is right back to the center of today's range, resting right on 72 SMA support here. Bulls need to see this level hold for a higher low to confirm a new 30 min channel upturn. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 2:16:10 PM

Buy Program Premium in last 20 minutes.

Lifted SPX from 1,280 to 1,284.

It was a "dinger" with $PREM.X jumping to 7.11

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 2:12:59 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 2:07:39 PM

INTC held 200 dma support. Ths is the time to make choices on the long option. Remember, it is April so there is time. If not comfortable, you can pick up some Jan 25 puts as a hedge. I recommend that for short term traders as there is risk during opex. If you trade futures, you will just be able to short YM if INTC misses.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 2:02:56 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 2:02:16 PM

30 min channel resistance being tested here at QQQQ 42.75: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 1:59:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 1:58:45 PM

Volume breadth rises to -2.15:1 on the NYSE, -2.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 1:58:04 PM

Big bounce for QQQQ back above 72 SMA resistance, engulfing the past hour and half's worth of prints as the short cycle finally turns up. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 1:40:02 PM

Friday's narrow range has resulted in a cluster of price-based pivot lines between 42.40-.50. Intraday keltner channel support is down to 42.40, but the short cycle indicators are gathering in oversold, presumably for their oversold bounce. While the longer bias looks more bearish here, the next 15 cents of downside for QQQQ should be difficult for bears. I'm not eager to be long because of the downward shift in those longer intraday and daily cycle cycles, but these are levels that look likely to me for a short term bounce. 10 min chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 1:34:30 PM

Midday News Update:

The major indices have traded in the red since the opening bell and have been weighed lower as crude oil jumped above the $65.00 level for the first time since early October on continued fears of supply disruptions due to Iran's standoff with Western nations over its nuclear program and rebel attacks on Nigerian oil producing facilities. February Crude Oil (cl06g) was up $1.43, or 2.23% at $65.35.

Strong gains for the Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 205.37 +1.77%, Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 425.42 +1.25% and Oil Index (OIX.X) 573.51 +1.15% have not been enough to offset weakness in financials with the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,280.44 -0.55% breaking below last week's lows.

The S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 365.48 -1.24% looks set to challenge its rising 50-day SMA (364.30) with Wells Fargo (WFC) $62.56 -1.09% breaking below its rising 50-day SMA ($62.78) after the bank posted net income of $1.93 billion, or $1.14 a share, a penny below consensus estimates. The banker said earnings were lowered by $0.07 a share from consumer bankruptcies, which were brought on by the new U.S. bankruptcy law. Revenue increases 4% to $8.5 billion. Shares edge lower.

Dow component McDonald's (MCD) $34.56 +0.26% edged higher after the fast-food chain said global same-store sales rose 5% in December and 4.2% in the Q4. The company is now projecting a profit of $0.48 a share, which includes a hit from foreign currency translations and asset-impairment expenses totaling $0.03 a share. Analysts were looking for earnings of 47 cents a share.

A downgrade on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $32.62 -4.42% by Merrill Lynch weighed heavily on chip stocks. Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Osha's note to clients was that he thought it will tougher for the chipmaker to take market share from rival Intel (INTC) $25.49 -1.16% in 2006, and added that while the company will likely continue to show "good progress" in the server market, "we see less progress in the notebook and desktop processor markets."

Economic data showed U.S. industrial output rising 0.6% in December, driven by higher utilities and mining production that offset a decline in automobile output. Economists expected a 0.5% advance. Capacity utilization edged up 0.4% to 80.7%, its highest level since November 2000.

The high rate of capacity utilization put an early bid in February Gold (gc06g), which traded as high as $561.60, but has now edged down $0.30 to $556.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 1:25:49 PM

Session high for ten year notes at 109 13/16, TNX down .2 bps here at 4.348%, flatter now against IRX which is up 1.7 bps at 4.237%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 1:20:37 PM

Crude oil +1.65 here at 65.575.

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Oil loadings have been suspended at Exxonmobil's Qua Iboe and Yoho terminals in Nigeria because of fears of attacks by militants, shipping agent Gulf Agency Company manager said on Tuesday.

The agency said exports at the 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) Qua Iboe terminal were suspended late on Monday because of the threats.

Loadings at Yoho's 150,000 bpd terminal were suspended on Tuesday, he said.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 1:16:05 PM

Volume breadth is down to -2.61:1 on the NYSE, -2.8:1 on the Nasdaq. But overal volume is light for the Qs at 30.3M shares, and despite the steady grind lower today, it's attracting very little participation.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 1:14:53 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 1:08:53 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 1:07:15 PM

Session low for QQQQ here. S1 and the 30 min channel supports are below at 42.48-.50. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 1:05:34 PM

Foreign central banks purchased 8.5B of the 37B in 13- and 26 week bills auctioned. The 13 week bills sold at a high-rate of 4.27% yielding 4.377%, with 2.26 bids tendered for each accepted. The 26 week bills sold for a high-rate of 4.315% yielding 4.472%, bid to cover 2.28.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 12:52:07 PM

Awaiting results of the 13-week and 26-week bill auctions in the next ten minutes. Hopefully that'll get something moving.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 12:31:06 PM

Volume breadth -2.6:1 on the NYSE, -2.4:1 on the Nasdaq on the new lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 12:18:51 PM

No change in the Qs. The slight uptick in the indicators could be a short cycle upphase. I'm inclined to view it as just more trending along the bottom- but if it is an upphase, then the next downphase could be a doozy. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 12:13:21 PM

QQQQ has open interest call resistance at 43, while puts and calls are nearly even at 42, while put support is strongest at the 41 strike. My guess is for a sideways to downward bias for this opex week based on the excess of calls in the money above 43.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 12:09:51 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 1/17/2006 12:07:25 PM

Nasdaq Volatility Index Back upto the 300-ema level, where in the past signaled buy. Daily... Link Weekly.... Link

Still concerned that the NAHL is not lower. Link

$NASI daily and weekly will be out after close tonight. Need to see if there are any changes there. Link Link

$NDX Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 12:02:22 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 11:56:39 AM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $17.82 -8.32% Link ... Notably weak after reporting a loss of $43 million, or $0.53 a share (ex-items) vs. a loss of $208 million, or $3.16 a share in the year-ago quarter.

CAL said the latest quarter included a gain of $106 million on the sale of Copa stock and charges of $21 million. Including items the airline said its loss was $128 million, or $1.58 a share.

Revenue rose 17% to $2.85 billion from $2.44 billion as it expanded its overseas flights and was able to raise fares.

CAL said its fuel bill totaled $714 million, a larger expense than the company's labor costs of $640 million, which were down almost 11% from last year.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 11:52:18 AM

Volume breadth is -2.15:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 11:47:38 AM

From the Treasury website:

The Treasury will auction 4-week Treasury bills totaling $8,000 million to refund an estimated $11,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills maturing January 19, 2006, and to pay down approximately $3,000 million.

Tab Gilles : 1/17/2006 11:39:39 AM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration (EVV) Update to 1/12/06 10:07 AM post. Keep watch on trailing stop set at 10-ema. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 11:32:28 AM

Bonds remain fractionally weaker, TNX up 1.1 bps to 4.361%, IRX up .7 bps to 4.227%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 11:26:46 AM

Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN) $2.33 +53.28% Link ... Percentage gainer at the NASDAQ and #2 most active among 4 and 5-lettered names.

Company announced that its field- located heavy oil upgrading Commercial Demonstration Facility (CDF) in California has successfully achieved a number of important performance goals culminating in an extended run last week. IVAN will now begin testing crudes from potential partners with an initial focus on heavy crudes from California and Western Canada, including bitumen from Canada's Athabasca Tar Sands region. The CDF runs to date have successfully demonstrated a number of commercial configurations and processing alternatives, including both once-through and recycle modes of operation. A number of progressive HTL process enhancements have been validated during the CDF test program, including flue gas sulphur capture, heavy metals capture, and acidity reduction.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 11:18:57 AM

Back to find QQQQ trading within its premarket range, the only clear trend sideways today and down since last Thursday. The short cycle is in a bearish oversold trending move on the lack of a bounce, and the orientation of the longer intraday cycles suggests that any bounce should fail at a lower high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 11:11:04 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 11:03:29 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 1/17/2006 10:56:06 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Both daily and weekly charts appear to be forming a bearish hanging man candle. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 10:47:11 AM

Stepping away for 10 minutes.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 10:46:09 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Exit NQ -2.5

Jane Fox : 1/17/2006 10:44:49 AM

Dateline Washington Post. The Supreme Court, with Chief Justice John Roberts dissenting, upheld Oregon's one-of-a-kind physician-assisted suicide law Tuesday, rejecting a Bush administration attempt to punish doctors who help terminally ill patients die.

Justices, on a 6-3 vote, said the 1997 Oregon law used to end the lives of more than 200 seriously ill people trumped federal authority to regulate doctors.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 10:42:41 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for CBOT Holdings (BOT) $88.00

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 10:35:50 AM

Volume breadth holds at -2.2:1 on the NYSE, -2.5:1 on the Nasdaq. As occurs so often, the big move occurred overnight and the current chop n flop is all that the regular market gets. The short cycle is clearly due for an upphase, but it's opposed now to the 30/60 min cycles and, possibly, the daily cycle as well. This looks like the beginning of a "short all rallies" phase as the daily cycle begins to roll over. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 10:31:37 AM

QM Exit Point Alert -
Exit QM short +0

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 10:29:27 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 10:27:57 AM

Now watch 200 dma at 25.46 for support.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 10:27:05 AM

INTC found support at 38.2% 2004/2005.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 10:19:02 AM

QQQQ 30 min channel support lines up with the oversold short cycle channel bottom at 42.60. This was confluence on the way up as well, a good potential zone of support: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 10:14:37 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 10:05:52 AM

No recovery for volume breadth, which remains weak at -2.15:1 on the NYSE and -2.45:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 10:04:05 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/17/2006 10:01:52 AM

ALERT: Lower stop on INTC APR25 calls to 1.30 (entry was 1.80). Remember that we made .30 from an exit at 2 and entry at 1.7, so this is minor risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 10:00:44 AM

Covered call filled alert on the El Paso Corp. Feb $13 Calls (EP-BO) at $0.55.

EP $13.20 +2.08% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:58:32 AM

Correction: there was 8.5B expiring today, for a net add of 8.25B.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:54:53 AM

A huge 16.75B overnight repo from the Fed results in a net add for the day of 8B.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 9:54:01 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... Place an order to sell four (4) of the El Paso Corp. Feb. $13 Calls (EP-BO) for $0.55.

EP $13.14 +1.62% ... It may take a trade near $13.40 and WEEKLY R2 to get the $0.55 premium.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:46:13 AM

QQQQ's trying to bounce off a wavelet cycle low, but the short cycle is still in rollover mode. Price currently tests Friday's low from below: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:37:14 AM

The Fed has 8.5B in repos maturing this morning. We await the 10AM announcement.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:32:03 AM

Volume breadth is -2.6:1 on the NYSE, -2.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:31:28 AM

QQQQ opens on 30/60 min channel support at 42.65. Channel resistance is at 43.15. The bias is bearish below the 72 SMA at 42.90.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 9:28:17 AM

Guidant (GDT) $70.84 ... Atop this morning's list of most actives and higher at $76.39 after Boston Scientific (BSX) raised its offer for the heart device maker to about $27 billion, or $80.00 per share.

The new offer comes in response to Guidant's acceptance of Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) $24.2 billion offer Friday ($71.00 per share), which the Indianapolis company chose over Boston Scientific's previous $25 billion bid. Guidant has said the J&J deal has a better chance of closing sooner.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:24:56 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are in downphases following an early abort to their upphases from Friday. This is another confirmation of trouble for the daily cycle upphase, overbought and stalling at the top of a very steep runup. I will update the intraday levels in the coming minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 9:21:09 AM

Pivot Matrix for this week found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2006 9:18:11 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.42 and set for program selling at $+4.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:18:03 AM

Bonds are holding a light loss on the Capacity utilization number, a measure closely watched by the Fed. QQQQ holds a .30 loss at 42.68.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 9:16:21 AM

Headlines:

9:15am U.S. DEC. HIGH-TECH PRODUCTION RISES 2.7%

9:15am U.S. DEC. MOTOR VEHICLE OUTPUT FALLS 2.8%

9:15am U.S. DEC. MINING OUTPUT RISES 2.5%

9:15am U.S. DEC. MANUFACTURING OUTPUT RISES 0.2%

9:15am U.S. 2005 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 3.2%

9:15am U.S. DEC. CAPACITY UTILIZATION RISES TO 80.7%, 5-YEAR HIGH

9:15am U.S. DEC. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 0.6% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

Jane Fox : 1/17/2006 9:13:45 AM

Dateline WSJ The price of light, sweet crude, heating oil and gasoline were all higher in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and natural-gas prices were up as well. The International Energy Agency noted in its monthly forecast today that among the immediate reasons for the recent rise in petroleum prices are Nigerian production outages and uncertainty about Iran's nuclear program. Following an attack by militants on one of Royal Dutch Shell's oil facilities in Nigeria, the company evacuated staff from four production platforms and said it was considering a total staff withdrawal from the west of the country's delta region, the Financial Times explains.

At the same time the standoff with Iran has been dominating headlines and foreign-policy agendas. China and Russia agreed with the U.S. and its European allies yesterday that Iran must suspend its nuclear program, but they failed to agree on whether Iran's case should be referred to the U.N. Security Council, the Washington Post notes. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated this morning that sanctions are not the best way to resolve the Iranian situation. Moreover, a host of factors argues against any U.S.-led military action against Iran over the nuclear issue -- at least any time soon. So while the rhetoric shows no sign of cooling, an interruption of Iranian oil supply doesn't appear likely. Still, geopolitics, ever more volatile these days, continues to play a big role in energy issues.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2006 9:11:10 AM

Dateline WSJ Economic growth slowed late last year, fueling a debate over whether higher interest rates, higher energy costs and a cooling housing market will damp the U.S. expansion this year.

Largely because consumer spending slowed to a near halt in the fourth quarter last year, overall economic growth fell below a 3% annual rate, economists estimate, after 10 quarters averaging about 4%. Many attribute the fourth-quarter slowdown to temporary factors, and the consensus estimate for growth this year is a still-solid 3.4%, according to the publication Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

But a handful of forecasters see a marked slowdown in the works, predicting that economic growth will fall this year to its lowest rate since 2002, pushing up unemployment.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 8:35:58 AM

Ten year notes are back down to a 3/64 loss at 109 3/32, QQQQ up to a .31 loss at 42.67.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 8:32:20 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 46.6 VS 46.7 IN DEC

8:30am U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX 27.2, SAME AS DEC.

8:30am U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 11.3 VS 5.0 IN DEC.

8:30am U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE INDEX SLIGHTLY BELOW CONSENSUS 21.0

8:30am U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 20.1 VS REV 26.3 IN DEC.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 8:25:04 AM

Bonds have ticked up from fractional red to fractional green at the cash open, ZNH6 now up 1/64 to 109 25/32. TNX is down .1 bps to 4.349%, flatter against the IRX which is up .2 bps to 4.222%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/17/2006 7:59:09 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1287.75, NQ 1748, YM 10942 and QQQQ -.31 to 42.67. Gold is down 1.40 to 555.5, silver is down .049 to 9.11, ten year notes are -1/32 to 109 47/64, crude oil is up 1.25 to 65.175 and natgas is up .20 to a session high of 8.99.

We await the 8:30 release of the Empire State Index, est. 22, then at 9:15, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, est. .7% and 80.7% respectively.

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