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OI Technical Staff : 1/18/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:39:09 PM

Brazil's Central Bank cuts key rate to 17.25% from 18.00%.

Sets no bias on Selic rate

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:36:23 PM

Cummins (CMI) $94.87 -0.21% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:35:27 PM

PACCAR (PCAR) $70.77 +1.02% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:34:29 PM

Knight Transport (KNX) $21.27 +0.56% Link ... DJ - Posts record revenue and net income for Q4 2005.

Q4 EPS $0.21 vs. $0.17 year ago.

Q4 Rev. $164.6M vs. $126.8M, +30%

Looks to grow fleet by 15% in 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:28:50 PM

eBay (EBAY) $44.44 -2.13% ... $43.40 extended. Extended session low has been $41.32.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:25:27 PM

QQQQ $42.21 -1.14% ... ticking higher at $42.32.

Apple Computer (AAPL) $82.49 -2.62% ... calming down a bit at $79.55.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:21:05 PM

CNX Gas Corp. (NYSE:CNX) ... PR Newswire - CNX Gas Corporation (NYSE: CXG) announced today that its registration statement on Form S-1, providing for the resale by the selling stockholders named therein of the CNX Gas common stock sold by the Company in a private placement in August 2005, has been declared effective by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The registration statement covers 27,936,667 shares of CNX Gas common stock.

The shares of CNX Gas common stock covered by the registration statement have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange, under the symbol "CXG." CNX Gas shares are scheduled to begin trading on the NYSE at 9:30 a.m., tomorrow, January 19, 2006.

CNX Gas Corporation is an independent natural gas exploration, development and production company operating in the Appalachian Basin of the United States.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:13:55 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:13:49 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:13:40 PM

CHK My Time/Sales shows regular trade having taken place at the higher $33.47 level in extended. Agency cross all at $32.75. INET $32.52 x $32.80 here.

Feb. Nat. Gas (ng06g) up a penny at $8.70.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 6:00:53 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY 127.91. Went out at $127.79. Must be getting some futures action.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:57:53 PM

CHK ... now $32.75 and where the stock went out at. Might have been a string of late prints from earlier this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:54:01 PM

CHK ... only thing I see is an SEC 8-K from 1/17/06 Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:51:51 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) alert ... sudden jump to $33.44.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:44:18 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:31:14 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $37.96 -2.24% ... marked higher at $38.32.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:12:57 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) Link ... did trade as low as $75.92 and right back to that triple top buy signal. Buyers were there and now $78.40 in extended.

Very active with 8 million shares traded in extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:08:26 PM

Advanced Micro (AMD) $34.15 +3.92% ... released for trade. Surging to $37.01

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:02:08 PM

Advanced Micro (AMD) ... Reuters - Earnings press release at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 5:00:57 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $34.15 ... halted on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:43:53 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $34.15 +3.92% ... $34.20 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:40:12 PM

Intel (INTC) $22.60 -11.44% ... $22.51 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:39:28 PM

PortalPlayer (PLAY) $30.73 -0.12% ... $29.10 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:38:55 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $70.65 -1.24% .... $69.40 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:36:10 PM

Apple (AAPL) $77.75 ... huge volume of 2 million shares in last 5 minutes ($75.92-$78.98)

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:33:46 PM

Apple (AAPL) ... Earnings press release at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:32:38 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) ... Headline Q1 EPS $0.65. Consensus $0.61.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:30:57 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $82.49 -2.62% ... plunges to $77.28. Numbers must be out.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:27:00 PM

eBay (EBAY) $44.44 -2.13 ... $42.30 extended.

Headline ... "eBay tops estimates, forecast lags"

Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:22:55 PM

Jonathan! My news feeds have been very slow today. You see anything on AAPL yet?

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:22:49 PM

Haven't seen anything on AAPL yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:22:43 PM

eBay (EBAY) $44.44 -2.13% ... another QQQQ component. Spikes to a low of $41.32 in extended. Active here at $42.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:22:35 PM

QQQQ $42.21 -1.14% ... big spike in volume (3.245 million) from 04:10-04:15 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:22:27 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) ... QQQQ heavyweight set to release earnings. Stock went out at $82.49 -2.62%

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 4:13:23 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with Feb. Nat Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

Feb. Unleaded settled down $0.05, or -2.74% at $1.7733.

Feb Crude Oil settled down $0.58, or -0.87% at $65.73.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 3:57:26 PM

Bonso Electronics (BNSO) $5.15 +5.53% Link ... big test for strength here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 3:51:37 PM

Sport-Haley (SPOR) $4.98 +10.42% Link ... thinly traded golf apparel maker edges up to Dec. 31 close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 3:49:21 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 704.23 +0.08% ... first major to edge green.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 3:29:56 PM

QQQQ bounces back from a hgiher low above 42.10, the short cycles chopped up again as price holds within today's flat range. Updated daily chart at this Link shows 42 support successfully tested on this morning's low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 3:19:48 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 3:03:13 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:50:52 PM

QQQQ loses 42.20 support, volume breadth down to -2:1 on the Nasdaq. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:42:33 PM

BALTIMORE (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve has at least one more rate hike to go before halting its 18-month tightening campaign but policy visibility expires beyond that point, one of its top officials said on Wednesday.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:41:18 PM

Short cycle sell signals printing here on the pullback: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 2:41:17 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.47, SPX 1,276.46, QQQQ $42.26

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:33:28 PM

I was busy typing and missed the 42.38 QQQQ short entry- the drop was 4 cents in about 1 second. That was likely a short cycle top just printed on the keltner break- the short cycles are now as toppy as they've been all day. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:19:22 PM

Keene just read my mind on the current bounce- it's up against 30 min channel resistance, but coming out of a base and will a strong feel to it, there's a better than usual chance that it could run higher. First test of the move is at 42.33 QQQQ: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 2:16:38 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:14:20 PM

QQQQ returns to test the afternoon's range resistance and R1 from above: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 2:08:05 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:06:13 PM

Session low for crude oil -.90 here at 65.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:05:46 PM

Volume breadth recovers to -2:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:03:02 PM

Full text of the Beige Book at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:02:33 PM

QQQQ tests R1 from below again, at the top of this afternoon's range: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:01:30 PM

Headlines:

FED'S BEIGE BOOK: MODERATE GROWTH, STABLE PRICES

INFLATION PRESSURES 'LESS INTENSE' THAN EARLIER: BEIGE BOOK

EMPLOYMENT, WAGE GROWTH SAID TO BE MODERATE: BEIGE BOOK

SOME COOLING IN HOUSING REPORTED IN MOST REGIONS: BEIGE BOOK

RETAIL SALES RISING IN MOST REGIONS: BEIGE BOOK

INCREASES IN MANUFACTURING WIDESPREAD: BEIGE BOOK

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 2:00:57 PM

From the Fed's website:

Economic expansion continued across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts through the last several weeks of 2005. Six--New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Kansas City--characterized their economies as expanding moderately or modestly. Activity accelerated or increased at a solid pace in the San Francisco, Richmond, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts. Boston characterized activity as continuing to expand, while Cleveland reported that conditions remained reasonably strong.

Most Districts reported moderate increases in employment. Labor markets tightened in some areas and for some occupations, but on the whole, wage increases were characterized as moderate. Contacts reported that input-price pressures have continued for many items, particularly early in the supply chain, but they were less intense at year-end than earlier. Retail prices and producers' prices for more finished goods, however, were widely reported as rising only moderately or remaining stable.

Retail sales rose in most Districts, and those Districts that reported on travel and tourism spending said it was generally strong. Increases in manufacturing activity were widely reported. Most Districts indicated some cooling in residential real estate activity, while many noted that commercial real estate activity generally continued to improve. Consumer borrowing was flat or fell in most Districts, while commercial borrowing was more mixed, with many Districts reporting moderate increases in activity. Conditions in the energy sector seemed strong, while agricultural activity was mixed.

Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 1:49:18 PM

Midday News Update:

The major indices remain under pressure with the fallout from last night's earnings from technology bellwethers Intel (INTC) $22.55 -11.59% and Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $35.48 -11.54% atop today's most actively traded.

Trading has been brisk for the NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQQ) $42.14 -1.31%, which at current levels has retraced just more than 19.1% of its impressive October to early January rally. Volume builds for a second-straight session to just over 82 million shares.

The narrower Dow Industrials (INDU) 10,826 -0.64% trades new session lows despite gains for IBM (IBM) $83.59 +0.69%. Outside of Intel, shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) $60.29 -2.03% pace declines, with breadth negative at 23 to 7.

McDonald's (MCD) $35.22 +1.82% and General Motors (GM) $20.04 +1.10% buck today's trend.

JP Morgan (JPM) shed 59 cents, or -1.48% to $39.12 after the banking giant said quarterly net rose to $2.7 billion, or $0.76 a share as revenue rose 5.6% to $13.68 billion. Operating EPS of $0.73 beat consensus by a penny, but trading results were disappointing with revenue from fixed-income trading down 28% from a year earlier at $1.1 billion.

For the full quarter, revenue came in at $13.68 billion, which was below the $14.3 billion consensus.

Energy futures were lower ahead of tomorrow's weekly EIA inventory reports. Traders blame warmer winter weather for February Nat. Gas (ng06g) declines. A failure at near-term $9.00 support has the contract plunging $0.49, or -5.32% to $8.68 and new monthly lows.

Economic data released earlier this morning found a surprising 0.1% decline in consumer prices versus economists' forecast for a 0.2% gain. The decline was a contrast in the PPI reported last week, where prices at the producer level rose 0.2%. Excluding food and energy costs, consumer prices showed a 0.2% gain in December.

Geopolitical news had France, Britain, Germany and the U.S. rejecting an Iranian request for talks on its contested nuclear program, saying Tehran must first suspend its nuclear activities. France, along with Britain and Germany have led the diplomatic effort.

February Crude Oil futures (cl06g) $65.75 -0.84% eased off their early morning highs of $66.90 to trade down 56 cents.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 1:46:10 PM

Volume breadth has improved slightly to -2.4:1 on the NYSE and to -2.6:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ tests the top of this afternoon's flat range. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 1:35:21 PM

Session low for crude oil here, -.875 at 65.425.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 1:33:54 PM

A 10 cent move in either direction would bury hours' of decisions for bulls or bears. The unfilled gap down, opex, AAPL earnings later this afternoon, the impending Beige Book- at this point, the short cycle indicators will just follow the price, and it's anyone's guess as to which way the next directional move will play out. Link

Jane Fox : 1/18/2006 1:28:10 PM

Dateline WSJ Japan's Nikkei tanked for the second straight day, and the flood of selling overwhelmed the Tokyo exchange, highlighting the risks of betting money on Japan's recovering economy -- but possibly creating a buying opportunity for investors with the stomach for volatility.

The Nikkei fell 2.9%, following a 2.8% drop yesterday, triggered by financial and legal problems at Livedoor, Japan's best-loved Internet stock. Imagine how the Nasdaq would react if Larry Page and Sergey Brin were frog-marched to the hoosegow. The Tokyo Stock Exchange was forced to shut down trading 20 minutes early, the first premature stoppage in its 57-year history. It was unable to handle a flurry of small orders from individual investors who have lately crowded Japan's markets, chasing signs of a long-overdue economic recovery. The Tokyo exchange has had similar embarrassing technical stumbles in the past year, leading to the resignation last month of its president, Takuo Tsurushima.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 1:22:56 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.33, SPX 1,273.57, QQQQ $42.11

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 1:16:34 PM

Foreign central banks bought a paltry 76.7M of today's 8B 4-week bill auction. The bills sold for a high-rate of 3.95% yielding 4.017%, with a strong 3.47 bid-to-call ratio.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 1:14:35 PM

Session low for ten year notes with 45 minutes to go until the release of the Fed's Beige Book. TNX is now up 2.1 bps to 4.353%, IRX down to a 1.8 bp gain to 4.25%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 1:10:40 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 1:08:49 PM

QQQQ tests declining 72 SMA ressitance here at 42.18. The break through descending linear resistance just now was on very light volume, and so far the short cycle bounce is looking very corrective. A strong break above 72 SMA resistance could change that, however. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 1:02:39 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 12:58:30 PM

Volume breadth holds at -2.5:1 on the NYSE, -2.85:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 12:53:58 PM

QQQQ tests the top of descending triangle resistance here at 42.15 - any higher and the pattern would be invalidated. Likewise, the wavelet oscillator (middle pane) is trying to top, while the short cycle indicators (top oscillator pane) are ticking higher. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 12:34:41 PM

Volume breadth -2.55:1 on the NYSE, -2.95:1 on the Nasdaq here. QQQQ is resting on S2, but the lower 3-min highs suggest a bearish triangle during the past hour. If so, the breakdown needs to occur during the nexst few minutes. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 12:30:40 PM

Session lows for GE and INTC here, INTC now down over 12% on the move.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 12:16:43 PM

Feb. Nat Gas (ng06g) $8.95 -2.37% ... after holding WEEKLY Pivot $9.026 yesterday, and then gapping higher to WEEKLY R1 $9.313 yesterday afternoon when electronic trade began, I'm quite surprised that demand has been this weak on a technical basis today.

Thought certain we were starting to see first sign of a trade recovery.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 12:14:26 PM

QQQQ returned to 42.20 and got smoked for 7 cents in what seems to be a single tick. While I'm cautiously bullish on the 60 min cycle above 42 while bearish on the daily cycle, this remains a treacherous tape compounded by the op-ex factor. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 12:12:21 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 12:03:10 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 11:58:05 AM

JP Morgan (JPM) $39.17 -1.33% Link ... Probes its rising 50-day SMA ($39.18) after the banking giant and Dow component said quarterly net rose to $2.7 billion, or $0.76 a share as revenue rose 5.6% to $13.68 billion. Operating EPS of $0.73 beat consensus by a penny, but trading results were disappointing with revenue from fixed-income trading down 28% from a year earlier at $1.1 billion.

For the full quarter, revenue came in at $13.68 billion, which was below the $14.3 billion consensus.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 11:55:03 AM

QQQQ has now retraced its gains, back to 42.08. The decline feels corrective, being less steep than the rise that preceded it, and if 42.00 holds, there's a good chance of confirming a 60 min cycle low. Op-ex muddies the water, though, as the 42.00 could act as a price-magnet. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 11:39:43 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 11:35:12 AM

QQQQ breaks back below 42.20 on a burst of volume: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 11:32:22 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 11:28:59 AM

The short cycle indicators have nothing coherent to say about the current price action in the Qs. The 60 min cycle is trying to bounce just above oversold territory, while the 30 min cycle channels have flattened but are not yet turning up, the indicator stalled at the midpoint of its range. On an intraday basis, the cycle picture is perfectly muddled, which seems to occur with regularity every op-ex week lately. The real issue I see is the rollover in the daily cycle from overbought, opposed with the 60 min cycle trying to bottom off this AM's 42.00 print on the Qs. So long as we keep seeing lower lows and lower highs each day, the daily cycle downphase will remain dominant. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 11:19:06 AM

Volume breadth -2.05:1 on the NYSE, -3.05:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 11:10:27 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 11:04:26 AM

Session low for INTC -2.85 at 22.67.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 11:03:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 11:02:19 AM

QQQQ loses range support, the wavelet now trending flat in oversold. A bouce was due there, the price ticked up a few pennies, and then it got whacked, stalling the short cycle upphase as well. The failure below 42.62 looks bearish to me, suggesting potential op-ex attraction at the next lower strike, 42 QQQQ. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 10:53:09 AM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $13.37 +0.60% ... Company saying its pipelines that transport natural gas from Gulf of Mexico to eastern U.S. are operating at 85% of their pre-hurricane volumes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 10:52:49 AM

QQQQ has flatlined at 42.30 after a corrective wavelet cycle downphase trying to bottom here. The short cycle upphase could still have gas in the tank for an assault on 42.50 if the current corrective wavelet low holds: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 10:50:09 AM

Burlington Coat Factory (BCF) $44.12 -1.03% Link ... released for trade.

Agrees to be acquired by affiliates of private equity firm Bain Capital for $2.06 billion, or $45.50 per share.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 10:38:18 AM

EIA Weekly Inventory data ... Due to Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, weekly inventory data will be released tomorrow at 10:30 AM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 10:33:48 AM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $13.20 -0.67% Link ... Company saying turnaround complete.

Now forecasting earnings of $0.95 to $1.05 and free cash flow of $400 million for 2006, with net debt of $14 billion, which according to company executives is about $1 to $2 billion away from an investment-grade credit rating.

Earnings and free cash flow targets assume oil hangs around $60 per barrel for oil and $8 per mmBtu for natural gas. Company did say it would still be free cash flow positive at nat gas price as low as $5.50 per mmBtu.

Company plans on spending $1 billion on its utility pipeline group in 2006.

Company also plans on spending $1 billion for its exploration and production operations, forecasting productioin would rise 8% to 11% over 2005, to 825-850 million cubic feet equivalent per day.

Company saying it will increase its reserve base 5-10% in 2006.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 10:24:23 AM

QQQQ approaches resistance at yesterday's low, overlapping the 72 SMA at 42.50. Yesterday's range should provide resistance, leaving us with a 50 cent range if it holds. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 10:21:00 AM

Heavy volume for the Qs, 40.8M traded so far, more than half of yesterday's total for the day of 78M.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 10:16:29 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 10:13:31 AM

The distortion of my intraday channels by the steep gap down has me flying blind with QQQQ this morning. A wavelet bounce is topping after a test of 23.6% fibonacci resistance at 42.32- the fib grid is based on the decline from last week's high to this morning's low: Link

Tab Gilles : 1/18/2006 10:09:34 AM

Followup to 1/17 12:07 PM post.

$VXN breaking over 300-ema. Daily... Link Weekly.... Link

$NDXDaily... Link Weekly... Link

$NASI Daily... Link Weekly.... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 10:07:41 AM

Big volume on this 10 cent bump here for QQQQ, approaching the next pivot level at 42.36. 72 SMA resistance is down to 42.55. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 10:02:37 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 10:02:26 AM

Volume breadth is up to -2.4:1 on the NYSE, -4.6:1 on the Nasdaq, still very weak. Updated QQQQ chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 10:00:12 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 109 49/64, TNX up to a .8 bp gain at 4.34%.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/18/2006 9:55:20 AM

For those who did not hedge, April is a long way and INTC should regain some strength in the coming weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 9:54:10 AM

Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN) $2.82 +18.48% Link ... #5 most active today.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:53:18 AM

The Fed announces a 2.25B overnight repo, resulting in a big net drain of 14.5B for the day.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/18/2006 9:52:29 AM

This reduces the cost of APR 25 calls to 0. Hold those for a free ride.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/18/2006 9:51:38 AM

ALERT:
Sell January 25 puts (close) at 2.10 (profit 1.80)

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:45:14 AM

QQQQ bounces into the gap here. 1st resistance is at 42.20, pivot and price confluence basis: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:43:41 AM

Volume breadth -2.88:1 on the NYSE, -8.35:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:42:45 AM

Ten year note yields have risen to a .8 bp loss here at 4.324%, 13-week rates also rising to a 3.8 bp gain at 4.27%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 9:42:32 AM

Alcan (AL) $42.40 -2.19% Link ... coverage initiated by Morgan Stanley at "equal-weight."

Jeff Bailey : 1/18/2006 9:39:28 AM

iShare Japan (EWJ) $13.26 -2.71% Link ... heavy volume early at 6.85 million shares. #4 most active.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:36:27 AM

Headline:

9:34am BIES SEES COOLING HOUSING MARKET, BUT NO BIG DROP

9:34am BIES SEES SHORT-TERM RISK TO SPENDING FROM HEATING BILLS

FED'S BIES SEES 2006 GROWTH IN MID-3% RANGE

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:32:33 AM

Volume breadth -4.05:1 on the NYSE, -8.75:1 on the Nasdaq 2 mins past the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:31:36 AM

QQQQ opens miles below all intraday channel support. The 72 SMA is nearly 60 cents above. It all indicates that this move is not measurable within intraday cycles or timing tools. We'll need to wait to see the indicators catch up. Meanwhile, QQQQ remains confluence support from Nov-Dec. Intrday chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:27:13 AM

The Fed has 16.75B in expiring repos to address in the 10AM announcement today.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:22:11 AM

While Briefing reports that the EIA will report crude inventories, the EIA website and other sources including Econoday say it's tomorrow. I believe the latter to be correct.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:07:53 AM

CAD futures are down .41% to a session low of .857 here, off a high of .8624. Gold is down 6.1 at 548.10, off a low of 541.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 9:01:45 AM

Headlines:

9:00am CHINA, JAPAN HOLDINGS OF U.S. TREASURIES RISE IN NOV.

9:00am PRIVATE INVESTORS BUY $97.3 BLN OF U.S. SECURITIES IN NOV.

9:00am FOREIGN OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS BUY $5.9 BLN OF SECURITIES

Jane Fox : 1/18/2006 8:54:12 AM

Here is the WSJ's take on the CPI data U.S. consumer prices fell a second straight month during December, taking a surprise drop as costs for cars and gasoline declined.

The Labor Department said Wednesday that the consumer-price index dipped by a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, after decreasing 0.6% in November. The "core" index of prices, which excludes food and energy items, climbed 0.2% a third straight month.

The level of consumer prices was, on an unadjusted basis, 3.4% higher than December 2004. That was the largest increase in a 12-month period ending in December since an identical, 3.4% climb in 2000. Core prices rose 2.2%, unadjusted, in the 12 months since December 2004.

December's unexpected drop in the CPI may assuage concerns over inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve on Dec. 13 raised its federal-funds rate to 4.25%, stating that possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices had potential to add to inflation pressures.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 8:49:25 AM

TOKYO (AP) -- Panic trading spurred by a widening criminal investigation of a popular Internet startup forced the Tokyo Stock Exchange to shut down 20 minutes early Wednesday as share prices plunged for a second day.

It was the first time trading had to end early because the market's computers couldn't handle a surge of transactions.

The benchmark for the Tokyo exchange slid 2.9 percent Wednesday. The Nikkei 225 index dropped 464.77 points, its biggest one-day drop since May 10, 2004.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 8:47:44 AM

Headline:

8:45am FED'S BIES SAYS ECONOMY GROWING AT 'STRONG PACE'

FED'S BIES SAYS ENERGY PRICES NOT PASSING THROUGH

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 8:40:17 AM

Ten year notes extend their gains, TNX now down 3.5 bps to 4.297%, IRX holds +2.5 bps to 4.257%. QQQQ is down .70 at 42.00, unchanged after the data.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 8:31:42 AM

Headlines:

U.S. DEC. CPI FALLS 0.1% VS. 0.2% GAIN EXPECTED

U.S. DEC. CORE CPI RISES 0.2% AS EXPECTED

U.S. CPI UP 3.4% IN 2005 VS. 3.3% IN 2004

U.S. CORE CPI UP 2.2% IN 2005, SAME AS 2004

U.S. DEC. CPI ENERGY PRICES FALL 2.2%

U.S. DEC. HOUSING PRICES RISE 0.1%

U.S. DEC. MEDICAL CARE PRICES RISE 0.1%

U.S. DEC. REAL WEEKLY EARNINGS UP 0.1%

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 8:22:11 AM

Ten year notes hold their gains, TNX down 3.1 bps to 4.301%. 13 week rates are up again to 4.257%, the ten year yield now separated from the 13-week rate by a mere 4.4 bps.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 8:15:16 AM

15-min INTC chart at this Link . The price action is obscured by the compressed channels, but the gap down is visible to 22.88 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 8:01:29 AM

QQQQ's big drop brings it back to Nov-Dec. confluence support at 42.00. Obviously the intraday cycles will be looking for an upphase on this steep drop, but on a daily cycle basis, the downphase appears to be just commencing, the indicators at the outset of rollovers: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 7:59:51 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Assoc. website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 18, 2006) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 13. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume was 613.3 -- an increase of 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 600.1 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 31.4 percent compared with the previous week but was down 10.9 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 3.0 percent to 443.9 from 457.4 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index increased by 9.9 percent to 1645.2 from 1497.5 one week earlier. Compared to last year, the Refinance Index is down 19.7 percent from 2048.6 to 1645.2. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which increased 1.2 percent to 917.1 from 906.2 the previous week, and the Government Index, which increased 18.9 percent to 106.5 from 89.6 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is up 0.8 percent to 578.4 from 573.7. The four week moving average is down 0.5 percent to 438.1 from 440.4 for the Purchase Index while this average is up 4.1 percent to 1441.3 from 1384.5 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 44.0 percent of total applications from 42.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 30.6 percent of total applications from 28.1 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 7:59:01 AM

We await the 8:30 releases of CPI and Core CPI, est. .2% for each, then at 9AM, Net Foreign Purchases, no estimate, at 10:30 Crude Inventories and at 2PM, the Beige Book.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/18/2006 7:57:01 AM

Equities are down hard, ES trading 1280, NQ 1719.5, YM 10864 and QQQQ -.67 at 42.03. Gold is down 6.7 to 547.5, silver is down .132 to 8.945, ten year notes are up 7/64 to 109 31/32, crude oil is up .525 to 66.825 and natgas is up .21 to 9.38.

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