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OI Technical Staff : 1/23/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 5:04:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade close out the remaining 1/2 position short in shares of Stillwater Mining (SWC) at the offer of $12.86 ($+0.14, or +1.08%).

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 4:52:57 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... Dollar Index and CRB Index data feeds established late this afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 4:47:45 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 4:16:35 PM

Large Block Alert at 04:10:26 PM EST, I see 5,000,000 SPY crossed at $126.40.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 4:14:32 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.83, SPY $126.43

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 4:11:39 PM

02:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Natural Gas and Heating Oil futures settlement at this Link

March Unleaded settled down $0.189, or -1.04% at $1.8485.

March Crude Oil settled down $0.38, or -0.56% at $68.10.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 3:51:07 PM

Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $90.28 +1.85% ... threatens a bullish close above $90.00.

Late Friday, the CBOT said that its CBOT Gold Complex (100 oz. Gold and mini-sized Gold contracts) set a new daily volume record for each contract as well as the overall complex. Volume for the Gold Complex jumped to 34,338 contracts, up from the last volume record of 25,226 contracts set on January 9, 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 3:24:03 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.98, SPX 1,265.93, QQQQ $41.26

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 3:13:48 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 3:04:37 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 3:04:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 2:36:54 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.70, SPX 1,262.20, QQQQ $41.11

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 2:12:32 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 2:03:44 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 1:25:38 PM

Treasury's 3-Month Bill Auction ... 4.290%; with 13.06% at high.

Bid-to-cover was 2.25.

$2.03 billion in noncomps.

DJ - The U.S. Treasury awarded $20.00 billion in three-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.290%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $44.93 billion and accepted $20.00 billion, including $2.03 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 98.915583 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.397%.

The Treasury also sold $121.90 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.25, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 13.06%.

The median rate was 4.270%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.250%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 1:25:12 PM

Treasury's 6-Month Bill Auction ... 4.34%; with 15.19% at high.

Bid-to-cover was 2.32.

$1.78 billion in noncomps.

DJ - The U.S. Treasury awarded $17.00 billion in six-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.340%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $39.46 billion and accepted $17.00 billion, including $1.78 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.805889 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.499%.

The Treasury also sold $363.40 million of six-month bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.32, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 15.19%.

The median rate was 4.320%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.310%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 1:13:36 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 1:04:47 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:52:00 PM

Canada Retail Sales up 1.1% in November from October.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:51:22 PM

Global Alumina (TSE:GLA.U) $1.71 +0.58% ... DJ - Gets mining concession from Guinea.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:46:40 PM

Wendys Intl. (WEN) $57.08 +0.29% Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:40:48 PM

McDonald's (MCD) $35.78 -0.22% Link ... Posted a multi-year high earlier this morning at $36.09.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:38:38 PM

Mad Cow ... DJ - The U.S. will not halt imports of Canadian beef or cattle in reaction to the discovery of a new mad-cow case in Canada, U.S. Department of Agriculture officials said Monday.

USDA Secretary Mike Johanns said: "I assured (Canadian Agriculture Minister Andy Mitchell) that based on the information he supplied, I anticipate no change in the status of beef or live cattle imports to the U.S. from Canada under our established agreement. As I've said many times, our beef trade decisions follow internationally accepted guidelines that are based (on) science."

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:36:44 PM

Oil Service Index (OSX.X) 218.50 +1.73% ... reverses earlier losses and now posts a new all-time high!

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:34:43 PM

Intel (INTC) $21.37 -1.79% Link ... Today's most active at mid-point of session and probing its bullish support trend.

Bernstein adds its name to a growing list of downgrades moving the chip giant to "market perform" from "outperform."

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:26:43 PM

Jones Apparel Group (JNY) $31.02 +1.04% Link ... Higher after the company agreed to sell its U.S. Polo Jeans business back to Ralph Lauren (RL) $53.95 +1.81% Link for $355 million. Ralph Lauren also settles all litigation outstanding with Jones.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:19:12 PM

Iran ... DJ - Iran will immediately retaliate if referred to the U.N. Security Council by forging ahead with developing a full-scale uranium enrichment program, says Tehran's senior envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:17:09 PM

Ford Motor (F) Restructuring Plans highlights ... DJ - Auto maker plans to cut 25,000 to 30,000 manufacturing jobs and close 14 plants over next six years, reducing capacity by 26% by 2008, as part of a sweeping restructuring of its unprofitable North American auto operations aimed at returning the unit to profitability by 2008. The plan, which Ford is calling 'Way Forward,' also aims to reduce material costs by at least $6 billion by 2010. Ford reports 4Q net income of $124 million, or 8c a share, on strength in financial services and gain on sale of Hertz rental unit.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:11:29 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 12:02:56 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 1/23/2006 11:57:47 AM

$VIX/$NYHL/$SPX Link

$VXN/$NAHL/$NDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 11:53:36 AM

Stillwater Mining (SWC) ... $12.83 x $12.84 here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 11:51:36 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert for the remaining 1/2 position in Stillwater Mining (SWC) $12.86 +0.15%

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 11:26:06 AM

Treasury ... U.S. to sell $22.0 billion in 2-year Notes on Wednesday.

Maturing notes outstanding total $25.61 billion.

Portion of the $22.0 billion sale to pay down $3.61 billion of Federal debt.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 11:15:30 AM

Dollar Index / CRB Index ... I'm not getting any data feeds for either of these indices this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 11:14:42 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 11:04:42 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 10:57:34 AM

December Leading Indicator Index ... up 0.1% in December vs. forecast of +0.02.

December Coincident +0.2%.

December Lagging Index +0.1%.

DJ - The U.S. economic outlook remained positive in December, partly thanks to strength in consumer expectations, according to a report designed to predict the economy's future direction.

The Conference Board reported Monday that its composite index of leading indicators rose 0.1% in December to a reading of 138.5, down from a revised 0.9% gain in November. Economists had been expecting a 0.2% gain.

The index was equal to 100 in 1996.

Six of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index increased in December. The main positive contributors were the index of consumer expectations, real money supply, stock prices, average weekly initial jobless claims, interest rate spread and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods.

The negative contributors were vendor performance, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, building permits and average weekly manufacturing hours.

"The indicators may be signaling a spurt of growth ahead - perhaps in the spring, which could be followed by a slower pace of activity later in 2006," said Ken Goldstein, an economist with the Conference Board.

The six-month growth rate in the leading index picked up to a 2.1% annual rate in December from a low of 0.6% in May. In 2005, the average six-month growth rate of the leading index was about 1.9% at an annual rate, the Conference Board said, down from an average of about 6.2% in 2004.

In the report's other components, the December coincident index increased 0.2% to 121.1, compared with a preliminary 0.4% gain the prior month. The lagging indicators rose 0.1% to 122.3 versus a preliminary 0.5% gain seen in November.

Taken together, Goldstein said the indicators suggest a "quite choppy pattern of growth."

The Conference Board is a non-profit research and business membership group that computes the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 10:46:38 AM

10-Most Active ... INTC $21.48 -1.28%, QQQQ $41.17 -0.19%, F $8.43 +6.70%, ABS $25.21 +4.52%, SPY $126.36 +0.30%, GNBT $1.28 +28%, SIRI $6.32 +0.31%, CSCO $18.29 -1.18%, EWJ $13.34 +0.98%, MSFT $26.34 -0.22%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 10:32:41 AM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... For the remaining 1/2 Stillwater Mining (SWC) $12.84 (unch) position ... to $12.86.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 10:21:50 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

March Crude (cl06h) $67.84 -0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 10:13:00 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 10:03:26 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 9:26:00 AM

Cal Dive Intl. (CDIS) $44.33 Link ... Marked higher at $44.73 after the company said it has agreed to buy Remington Oil (REM) $37.96 Link for $46.33 a share in cash and stock. Cal Dive expects the acquisition will add 8% to 2006 earnings and 37% to cash flow.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 9:20:02 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $44.19 Link ... Indicated lower at $43.78 after the banking giant said quarterly net fell to $3.77 billion, or $0.93 a share, driven by increased provision expense and lower trading results. Excluding charges, Bank of America earned $0.94 a share, well short of Wall Street's $1.02 a share estimate.

Technical : StockCharts.com's PnF chart not reflective that supply/demand somewhat bearish, with supply heavy below $48 and bearish vertical count has risk being assessed to $36.00. Banking sector bullish % currently "bear correction" at 66.43% and would take a 72% reading to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

Jane Fox : 1/23/2006 9:19:31 AM

The VIX closed at 14.56 and the SPX at 1261 so McMillan is no longer bullish the market.

Jane Fox : 1/23/2006 9:18:03 AM

Here is Larry McMillan's weekly commentary. This was delivered early Friday morning before the market crash on Friday. The market had a correction this week. Was it just that -- a correction or is it the beginning of a more serious sell signal? From what we see, it just looks like a mere correction. Traders were blindsided by a couple of events. First, on Tuesday, the market fell quite a bit, after a rather bad day of trading in Japan. But Tuesday night was when trouble really began, as Intel (INTC) and Yahoo (YHOO) both reported earnings misses and lowered forecasts (and Japan fell sharply once more -- even having to halt trading because of massive sell orders). S&P futures were down as much as 15 points in Globex (night-time) trading. But in the light of day, things weren't as bad, and the averages managed to stage an afternoon rally to get themselves out of immediate trouble (more about that in a minute). By Thursday, prices had rallied rather strongly, and it seems that the market may be out of trouble for now.

We have been pointing out that the chart of $SPX is the most important indicator right now, since the entire rally this year has been one based on price momentum rather than traditional buy signals, such as oversold readings or negative sentiment readings. As such, $SPX and the other major averages must remain above support, lest they lose the price momentum they have generated, in order for the bull phase to continue. Wednesday, $SPX fell below that support level, 1275, but rallied after briefly touching its 20-day moving average (Figure 1) and managed to close above 1275. That was a positive sign, and as long as the 1275 area is not violated on a closing basis, we will be giving the bull case the benefit of the doubt.

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on buy signals all week. In fact, they made new lows after Tuesday's otherwise miserable day, and that's bullish. Admittedly, they are getting to the low area of their charts (Figures 2 and 3), but remember that they have gone much lower than this during sustained periods of bullishness. They will remain positive as long as they trend downward -- i.e., as long as the don't roll over and begin to rise.

Breadth (advances minus declines) was shaky, as it has been for much of this rally dating back to October. After reaching overbought conditions last week, the "stocks only" oscillator slipped into a sell signal this week. However, the NYSE-based oscillator did not agree (it came very close, but failed to actually generate a sell signal). We generally consider these breadth oscillators to be confirming indicators, rather than leading ones, so we do not consider it significant that they are at or near sell signals.

Finally, $VIX followed a pattern very similar to that of $SPX. As long as $VIX remains low, the market can rise. However, should it begin to trend upward, then trouble could start. To that end, we have been saying that if $VIX closed above 12.50, it would be on a sell signal. Wednesday, $VIX probed above 12.50, but then closed below it (Figure 4) -- much as $SPX probed below its sell signal area but then closed away from it.

So, we continue to view things as positive, but would change our mind if $SPX fell below 1275 and $VIX closed above 12.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 9:11:21 AM

Albertson's (ABS) $24.11 Link ... Indicated higher at $24.85 and this morning's most actively traded stock in pre-market.

The grocer agreeing to be acquired for $9.6 billion by Supervalu, CVS and investment group. The deal values ABS at roughly $26.29 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2006 9:07:44 AM

Ford Motor (F) $7.90 Link ... Indicated higher at $8.24 after the automaker said Q4 net rose 19% to $124 million, or $0.08 a share, from $104 million, or $0.06 a share, on strength in financial services and a gain on sale of Hertz rental unit, but income from continuing operations fell on charges. Troubled North America car unit narrows pretax loss to $143 million from $470 million.

Ford is expected to announce details of restructuring plan later today.

Technical: Supply still in control, but bears are urged to lock in some type of profit after stock achieves its bearish vertical count of $9.00. Ford is an "auto/parts" component where its sector bullish % is bull confirmed" at 58%.

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