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Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 3:13:20 AM

After you look at the 02:46:28 post, then quick look at the March energy futures as of 02:47 AM EST. 5-day is close to a week. 20-day is close to a month at this Link ... If you're a refiner, your inputs (crude oil) has risen a bit the past 5 and 20-days. How's your stockpiles of unleaded and distillates? How are your spreads doing?

I'd be "cautious" and a bit defensive for the refiners into tomorrow's EIA data. I didn't catch in detail what CNBC's comments were regarding anticipated draw/build, but I believe traders were expecting builds.

See the RED numbers at the bottom of my "Preview" table? By assuming no change, this gives us a bit of a benchmark for headline numbers.

Yes... the 1,159,000 RED for 1-month crude oil. That's a good start. If we get a build of that amount, then I know month-to-month change will come flat. What's crude oil price been doing the past week, or two? I'd have to think there's some "Iran risk" in that rise, but there's also been draws 12/30 and 01/06. Price will rise when demand exceeds supply.

How about unleaded gas and distillates (heating oil is a part of distillates). Do we have enough heating oil to get us through winter? How have the temps been of late? What's the forecast?

It doesn't look like we'll run out of gasoline anytime soon. But summer driving season isn't that far away (when do your options expire?). See the RED 3,077,000 year ago? That becomes a focus with each passing week. Still, the futures may be telling us something as to a coming build in tomorrow's report.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 2:46:28 AM

Preview of EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Inventory assuming no net change in stockpiles at this Link

How things looked after Thursday's report last week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 2:06:31 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) PnF chart from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

You can really begin to tie in the $55 level of support can't you? Bar chart retracement, supply/demand chart?

The $70 bullish vertical count is still intact and would currently need a trade at $50 (think bull risk) for it to be negated.

If you were short VLO, where might you be a buyer? I'm thinking $56 (think bull risk).

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:49:40 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $60.30 ... Now with a new PINK where I simply drag up high close to $61.17 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:35:48 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $60.30 ... Quick update on VLO chart with previously shown retracement work at this Link ... With crack spread between Unleaded and Oil narrowing a bit the past two days, I'd assess near-term downside to $58.06-$58.25. This stock can "move fast" so be alert.

Bulls make money. Bears make money. Hogs get slaughtered.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:07:48 AM

QQQQ ... A chart I had captured at Friday's expiration close. Similar low close, high close range of retracement (blue), which I tie in with recent NASDAQ NH/NL ratio readings. Get a feel/observation of a range.

Feel how the GOOG plays into things? Big stock for the QQQQ now, and some psychological impact on QQQQ traders too. The PINK retracement would be a low close/high close to mark the similar NASDAQ NH/NL ratio move. Remember discussion a couple of weeks ago about the "8" (August) in the NASDAQ NH/NL ratio.

Don't believe in reverse head/shoulder patterns? Oooeeee!

Here's the QQQQ chart thru Friday's close Link

And some QQQQ Option Montages I captured. Haven't had the time to really study them at this point, but like to capture at an expiration. Jan Call buyers got some "max pain" as did any Jan $42-up put sellers.

Link #1 (Finishing Jan, with Feb) Link

Link #2 (March/June Quarterly) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:06:15 AM

Question ... Jeff: would you mind looking at GOOG and give your opinion .... GOOG .... took a fast down move on Friday ..... according to PF chart. Stock is now in a downtrend, YAHOO earnings etc. ..... we are short on the stock .... despite the government wanting GOOG to provide access into their data base etc... it is hard to fight "Big Brother" should have a burden on the stock .... also 5 upgrades to defend the stock ... went up 28 points.

Earnings coming out next week ...... Jan.31.... why the big bounce today...granted could have been higher since all these upgrades that rolled in for defense .... sure a nice bounce .... will it hold ... our reading is still to the down side.... but ..

please give us your opinion, very much appreciated as always.....

Michael and team ( CSU -- from the 70's )

Reply: Go Rams! Congratulations to the CSU Steelers and their victory over the Broncos in this weekend's AFC title game. Broncos might have won if Van Pelt had a couple more years under his belt.

For GOOG. Gosh, I haven't been following news on this newly added NASDAQ-100 component and Jonathan Levinson undoubtedly more up to speed on all the GOOG news and YHOO news of late. I hear the "blurbs" on CNBC, but that has been about it.

"Downtrend" on GOOG? (grin) ... C'mon, did you go to University of Wyoming?

Here's PnF chart of GOOG. Yes, it gave a double bottom sell signal at $462, but be alert that the bearish vertical count of $448 was achieved/exceeded. Note where the stock closes today. Bears better put up a defense like the Rams had a couple of years ago before they all got drafted by the Steelers!. Here's the PnF Chart at this Link

Ok ... Now look at a bar chart. A clean one. What do you think? Bar chart Link ... $400 was psychological? Horizontal support?

How about a GOOG bar chart with a low close, high close retracement, and a near-term high/low nested retracement? This should help clear things up. I think some bears "gulped" this morning, and they might flinch above $444.

Here's a bar chart as described above at this Link

At the very lower left corner of chart, I make some quick notes of a GOOG high $317.80 and decline low of $273.35, but didn't show that range of retracement. However, take note of 38.2% and 61.8% levels. When GOOG got above 61.8%, it re-tested the highs, then pulled back darned close to 38.2% of $290.33 before the recent leg higher.

With GOOG a recently added component to the QQQQ, it might also be wise for a QQQQ trader to do some retracement work.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 11:26:25 PM

Question: ... Jeff: I may not be asking this correctly, but I'm wondering why the premiums on TIE are high. Like the June puts, 40-55, seem high to me given things like p/e, industry, etc. However, the stock has gone from nowhere to somewhere in a short time so, theoretically, could go back to nowhere. Is that what's at play here? I'm just trying to look at it like a pro would.

Thanks Don

Reply : Holy Metallica! There is some premium in those puts! Here's a QCharts option montage of TIE at today's close with implied volatility readings, OI and today's volumes.


First things first. When premiums are high, that is when market makers like to sell. Remember? When premiums are high, sell it, and trade the cash.

OK ... what's the potential longer-term up/downside? IE .. bullish/bearish vertical count? What is the sector bullish % looking like (Non Ferrous Metals)? A pro will always assess risk/reward and strength/weakness in the stock and the sector.

Here's Dorsey/Wright's Non Ferrous Metals Sector bull%, which is currently "bull confirmed." Chart Link

Now here is TIE's point and figure chart Link

Notes: I mark the $64 level. This is the current bearish vertical count. This is an initial assessment of downside risk (will discuss split in a minute). Then I mark the put strikes that Don is curious about. Is Don looking to buy, or sell these puts? How about you? To the far right, in pink, I place the current BID of each June put contract. I think Don's a seller of premium.

OK ... that bearish vertical count a bit worrisome to a seller of naked puts at this point. A question I'd ask is "why is this stock on a "sell signal" when the sector is just getting going?

Aha! You long-time subscribers know where I'm going. It is that trick I taught you years ago in the "Bailey's Basics" section before all those articles were deleted!

Yep ... Pull up your PnF chart of TIE, then change your SCALE to $2, to reflect the 2:1 split. Get a look at supply/demand on a post-split basis. Here... like this Link . Just remember ... That "buy signal" at $70, would be $35 (2:1 or 1/2 of $70), and $74 would be $37.00. See the important support at $60? That's $30 post-split.

Why are the premiums so inflated? I can't say for sure. The call/put options aren't heavily traded, and we often note that thinly traded options carry higher premiums. The stock looks relatively liquid to me.

OI Technical Staff : 1/24/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 9:41:49 PM

Question Jeff: I have a question about your 4:16 entry about the "slight slippage in refiner margins between crude and heat/unleaded last two sessions" Are you referring to the crack spreads? I bought VLO because of the high crack spreads.



Reply: Yes! Exactly right! I also showed a relative strength chart of Continuous Unleaded vs. Continuous Oil.

This is a "heads up" into tomorrow's EIA capacity figures.

VLO has been "hotter than a $2 pistol" since initial profile on 12/29/05 and if not for using a stop on the options (stopped 1/5/06) this was a hum dinger based on bullish analysis. Now a bit more cautious, protective of gains.

I've had several questions from long-time subscribers regarding crack spreads on Oil/Unleaded, Oil/Heating Oil, Oil/Nat. Gas. This is a new can of worms that I don't have time to tackle. However, the Point and Figure relative strength charts hold the key to understanding these signals.

Did anyone wonder why Nat. Gas fall sharply on Monday? One big reason is the "roll" due to Friday's February Crude Oil contract expiration. The Nat. Gas bid into that Crude Oil expire also influencial.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 5:05:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long Regional Bank HOLDRs Feb $140 Calls (RKH-BH) at the offer of $2.00. Eyeballing a stop of $1.00, with target of $2.00 for these options.

Bullish swing trade long for 1/2 position in shares of Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) at $90.50 was not filled, and later cancelled. Post profile low was $90.90.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 4:45:55 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 4:39:10 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 4:16:16 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled down $0.0415, or -2.25% at $1.807.

March Crude Oil settled down $1.04, or -1.53% at $67.06.

Slight slippage in refiner margins between crude and heat oil/unleaded last two sessions.

Valero (VLO) $60.30 -1.42% Link ...

Relative strength chart of Continuous Unleades vs. Continuous Oil ($0.20 box) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 4:02:50 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $106.96, SPY $126.57

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 3:31:23 PM

QQQQ holds pennies from its gap up open, today's session with more of an op-ex feel than anything else. Link On the daily chart, the bounce has only retraced part of last Friday's big decline, still in potential bear flag territory: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 3:30:03 PM

10-Most Active ... INTC $21.28 -0.32%, QQQQ $41.42 +0.36%, SUNW $4.39 (unch), SIRI $5.89 -3.60%, MSFT $26.26 -0.34%, LU $2.51 +0.40%, SPY $126.69 +0.21%, JDSU $3.03 +3.41%, CSCO $18.30 +0.77%, GE $32.99 -0.90%

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 3:14:13 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 3:04:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... "Junk Bond" PHF $9.50 +1.82% ... big move continues!

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 2:58:37 PM

Volume breadth +1.85:1 on the NYSE, +1.45:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 2:55:46 PM

QQQQ back to the 72 SMA at 41.45, the short cycles rolling over. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 2:31:09 PM

Stepping away.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 2:26:06 PM

QQQQ continues to hold below this AM's high, the short cycles growing toppy but not yet rolling over. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 2:18:10 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 2:11:16 PM

Session low for crude oil here at 67.175, 19 minutes left in the day session.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 2:07:07 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 2:04:42 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.33, SPX 1,270.67, QQQQ $41.57

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 2:04:02 PM

FOMC Reminder 2-day meeting next week. Might be seeing some early sign of rally into this highly anticipated meeting.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 2:03:09 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) alert 717.18 +1.32% ... new 52-weeker.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 2:01:39 PM

QQQQ breaks above the 72 SMA for the first time this afternoon. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 2:01:26 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for two (2) of the Regional Bank HOLDRs $139.27 +0.72% February $140 Calls (RKH-BH) at the offer of $2.00. Stop $1.00, target $4.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 2:01:02 PM

For Quotetracker users feeding with IB's data, I've just found the symbols for the TICK and TRIN: just enter NASDAQ:$TICK-NASD and NYSE:$TRIN-NYSE in the portfolio screen. I haven't tried them yet, but they should work.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:57:51 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 358.92 +0.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:56:12 PM

5 to 30-year spread shows extensive steepening. 5-year up 3.0 bp with 30-year yield up 4.6 bp.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 1:55:08 PM

QQQQ is back to testing the now-declining 72 SMA, the short cycle edging higher. Volume breadth holds +1.9:1 on the Nasdaq. This current range is more likely to be a topping area for the 30/60 min cycles than a bottom, but that doesn't preclude a run back up to test the channel tops still holding near the session highs. Because of the bearish daily cycle, it looks unlikely to me that the bulls would be able to blow the roof off straight from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:52:02 PM

Chicago Merc (CME) $404.12 +5.11% Link ... notable new 52-week at the big board.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:50:00 PM

Bullish swing trade long cancel order alert ... for CBOT (BOT) $92.20 +2.85% ... cancel order to buy 1/2 position at $90.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:31:56 PM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $10.60 +6.85% Link ... lurches higher to challenge prior 52-week high. No news I can find to explain today's volume and price action.

Small Caps impressive.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:25:19 PM

Judicial ... DJ - Alito clears Senate Panel on 10-8 vote.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:20:57 PM

U.S. Energy Secretary DJ - Reiterates belief OPEC will meet oil demand.

Doesn't see U.S. gasoline shortage in spring.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:15:25 PM

Swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in CBOT (BOT) $91.22 +1.76% should it trade back at $90.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:12:11 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 1:10:24 PM

Foreign central banks took 5.56B of the 10B in 20-year TIPS auctioned. The median yield was 1.955%, bid to cover a mere 1.48.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 1:04:06 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 1:03:55 PM

QQQQ just failed on an attempt to regain the 72 SMA, but continues its sideways drift. My guess is that this range will resolve to the downside due to the daily/weekly synchronous downphases, but price will need to get below the 41.31 pivot to roll the intraday cycles. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 12:54:39 PM

Volume breadth +1.95:1 on the NYSE, +2.35:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 12:51:25 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $106.98, SPX 1,266.50, QQQQ $41.41

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 12:49:31 PM

Google (GOOG) 440.73 +3.09% ... building pretty good intra-day pennant. Apex at 440.00

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 12:44:31 PM

The Treasury auctioned $12B of 4-week bills today to refund $10B maturing and raising $2 billion of new cash. Foreign central banks purchased $900.2M of $12B total, a weak showing, and the bid to cover ratio was 2.02. The bills sold for a high-rate of 4.145% yielding 4.216%.

Awaiting the 20 year TIPS auction results at 1PM.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 12:42:26 PM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $50.12 +4.91% Link ... trades a "psychological" $50.00.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 12:37:36 PM

Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) $90.09 +0.50% ... Stock looks like it wants to explode to the upside, but each day's close pinned back under $90.00. Updated bar chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 12:29:01 PM

Nothing like random bouts of nausea to make a flat trading range drag on... QQQQ is holding within pennies of its gap up open, so far respecting a higher high and higher low within the ongoing daily cycle downphase. The 30 and 60 min cycle upphases have not yet rolled over, but the current gains look precarious given that those cycles are no longer anywhere near oversold. Bulls are getting relatively poor traction so far following yesterday's lower low. Currently, 30/60 min channel resistance line up at 41.64. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 12:17:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 12:11:54 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 12:03:32 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 11:54:40 AM

Stepping away.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 11:45:58 AM

Volume breadth +1.65:1 on the NYSE, +2.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 11:46:17 AM

Altria Group (MO) $74.00 -0.96% Link ... defensive.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 11:37:26 AM

QQQQ's short cycle downphase has stalled on the wavelet (middle oscillator pane) bounce. With the wavelet now topping out, it's time for the short cycle bulls to pick up the ball, failing which my guess would be for a retest of the pivot at 41.31. So far, the 30 min cycle upphase is stalled but refuses to roll over. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 11:34:18 AM

Matrix Service (MTRX) $10.43 +5.14% ... bold move higher.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 11:17:00 AM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support here just above the pivot. The short cycle indicators are oversold but showing no uptick or divergences of note. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 11:14:44 AM

United Technologies (UTX) $56.39 +3.50% Link ... Dow component sharply higher with revenue growth across all divisions.

Earnings story Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 11:11:55 AM

Volume breadth is down to +1.44:1 on the NYSE, +2.65:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 11:11:15 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 11:03:31 AM

QQQQ's short cycle downphase has delivered almost 30 cents' of decline, but has yet to test the 72 SMA support at 41.33. This suggests that the 30 min cycle upphase may have more upside left before topping out- if so, 41.33 support needs to hold if/when tested. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 11:02:39 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 10:57:53 AM

Just these re Iran: Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 10:45:11 AM

Bonds hold their losses, with TNX up 2.7 bps at 4.896%, FVX +2.8 bps at 4.313% and IRX +2.3 bps at 4.290%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 10:45:02 AM

Weekly Pivot Observations ... NYSE and RUT.X both trade well above respective WEEKLY Pivots (7,943.90 / 706.53).

SPX 1,268.16 +0.34% did see trade at WEEKLY Pivot, but sellers stood firm.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 10:40:53 AM

McDonald's (MCD) $35.89 +0.50% Link ... New 52-weeker this morning. Plans $1 billion stock repurchase program in Q1.

Earnings story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 10:36:59 AM

3M (MMM) $75.44 -0.34% Link ... Dow component off opening session low of $74.00 after quarterly earnings.

Earnings story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 10:34:34 AM

Kimberly Clark (KMB) $58.91 -1.33% Link ... DJ Headline - Raising some tissue prices in Europe.

Earnings story Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 10:32:29 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA overlaps the pivot at 41.31 here, below which the 30 min cycle upphase will begin to roll over. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 10:30:40 AM

Volume breadth +1.9:1 on the NYSE, +3.25:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 10:27:32 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 10:20:13 AM

Preliminary sell signals from the short cycle indicators for QQQQ, but price remains firm at 41.62 on a minimal pullback so far. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 10:16:42 AM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $48.81 +2.17% Link ... new 52-weeker.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 10:08:04 AM

On a daily and weekly cycle basis, the direction is down. Within that, the 30 and 60 min cycles are rising in what would be a corrective bounce against the daily/weekly cycles, and it's going to take a break back to the high 42's to threaten that daily cycle decline. Daily chart of QQQQ at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 10:03:56 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 9:59:22 AM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $59.88 -2.14% Link ... Testing important near-term support after the Dow component reported strong earnings, but weaker-than-expected revenue.

Story Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 9:57:38 AM

QQQQ is holding above R1 and has yet print a single 3 min candle within the 30 min cycle channel, still holding above it. The short cycle is trending within this 30/60 min cycle strength, and with volume breadth holding at +4.2:1 on the Nasdaq, the bulls are clearly in control. First sign of trouble would be a break back below 41.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 9:56:15 AM

Du Pont (DD) $38.89 -1.66% Link ... Chemical giant weak after posting Q4 earnings, warns on Q1.

Story Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 9:54:46 AM

The Fed announces a 7B overnight repo, draining net 3B against the 10B expiring, though there's a permanent coupon pass of just under 1B deliverable today. The dealers weren't desperate for the money, though, with over half of it borrowed against treasury collateral at a stopout rate of 4.18%, well below the 4.25% overnight target rate.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 9:40:58 AM

QQQQ holds below R1, testing 30 min channel resitance at the top of the short cycle upphase. A break above the 41.55 level would kick off an upside trending move for the short cycle, if the bulls can do it. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 9:37:12 AM

GOOG +2.4% at 438 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 9:34:26 AM

Volume breadth is +1.5:1 on the NYSE, +4.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2006 9:34:15 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.21 and set for program selling at $+3.04.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 9:31:28 AM

QQQQ 72 SMA support is at 41.25, 30/60 min channel support 41-41.05, 30/60 min channel resistance at 41.41-41.47.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 9:29:48 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The Bank of Canada Tuesday lifted its overnight rate by a quarter point to 3.5%, in line with market expectations, according to an announcement on the central bank's website. Further rate hikes could be in store. "In line with the Bank's base-case projection and current assessment of risks, some modest further increase in the policy interest rate would be required to keep aggregate supply and demand in balance and inflation on target over the medium term," the central bank said. Bank of Canada also said it "continues to judge that the Canadian economy is operating at its production capacity and will grow roughly in line with production potential through 2007."

Tab Gilles : 1/24/2006 9:28:45 AM

Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) After yesterday's close the weekly $NASI gave a reversal SELL signal. Link Link

SELL 1/2 position UOPIX- Profund UltraOTC fund on today's closing NAV. [Entered two half positions on 1/5 @ $26.23 & 1/6 @ $27.13.]

Jane Fox : 1/24/2006 9:04:36 AM

Jonathan I certainly understand what it feels like to live in a wonderful country and yet have to pay taxes to support a government that has to spend a great deal of those tax dollars pacifying separatists. Coming from the oil rich province of Alberta a great deal of our money was taken to do just that.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 8:54:31 AM

QQQQ spent all of yesterday in a 30 min cycle upphase that is roughly 2/3 done, while the 60 min cycle is still in the process of making its upturn, only now emerging from oversold territory. The daily and weekly cycles are in synch to the downside however, and bulls will need to get good traction from here to invalidate what so far looks like a bear flag off Friday's drop. I will update the intraday channel and SMA levels when they refresh at the bell.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 8:20:45 AM

Session low for ten year notes here at 109 31/64, TNX quoted +2 bps at 4.377%, flatter against IRX which is up 3.5 bps to 4.282%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 8:15:40 AM

Canadians elected a new Tory minority federal government yesterday, with the Conservative party winning 124 seats, the Liberals 103, the Bloq Quebecois 51 and the NDP 29. Quebeckers gave the BQ 51 out of 75 ridings, while the Conservatives gained 10 new ridings, 8 of which were former BQ ridings. For those lucky enough to not have to follow Canadian and particularly Quebec politics, the Bloq is a secessionist party advocating the breakup of Canada. It has no other message that I have been able to discern, yet somehow continues to attract votes. CAD futures are currently down .08% at .8702.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 7:42:41 AM

Thank you to all who emailed me during my absence. I have apparently come down with a stomach flu, and I have yet to beat it. We never seem to appreciate perfect health until we're busy missing it.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/24/2006 7:43:03 AM

Equities re up, ES trading 1272.25, NQ 1693, YM 10752 and QQQQ +.14 to 41.40. Gold is down 1.6 to 556.90, silver -.012 to 9.059, ten year notes -3/32 to 109 17/32, crude oil -.675 to 67.425 and natgas -.055 to 8.70.

There are no major economic data scheduled for release today.

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