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Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 2:57:30 AM

I know Jonathan is still recovering from the flu. The $BPINDU action follows the recent reversal lower in the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 2:55:33 AM

Bear Alert! ... The very narrow Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) Link from StockCharts.com reverses lower to "bear alert" status.

Recent damage was 01/20/06 Link , 1/20/06 KO Link , 1/25/06 JNJ Link and MMM Link

MCD Link is only recent reveral higher buy signal.

Note: Stockcharts.com's supply/demand chart of specific stocks may not fully depict actual prices traded as they subtract dividends paid from their data.

Dorsey/Wright and Associates does not subtract dividends paid, nor do many chart service providers. If market participants paid $36.00 for a stock at an all-time high, and that stock pays a $1.00 per year dividend, market participants still paid $36.00 for the stock, not $35.00 ($36 - $1 = $35). When I can convince my tax accountant and the IRS otherwise, I will let you know. (grin)

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 2:28:00 AM

Ready to sell alert ... Per my comments on 11/16/06 for income investors/traders. I'm looking to sell some Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.60 Link

Historical NAV tabulated each week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 1:25:26 AM

Daily/Weekly Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

Today I said "I feel great pressure building."

Tonight, you and I should see it and take note!

Potential BULLISH triggers where sellers stood firm ... Yes... SOX is pounding back against MONTHLY R2 today, and QQQQ at MONTHLY R1. Sellers stand firm at the close. Google (GOOG) $433.00 -2.26% closes below $434.93-433.88 after gap higher trade to 454.23.

VIX.X ... today's low not a "coincidence" and today's excessive selling in a far out the money 1,180 put looks manipulative (Quarterly Pivot Matrix has S1 at 1,185.73, while R2 at 1,338.36). However, with next week's FOMC meeting the last meeting until MARCH 28 today's SPX Mar 1,350 Call action does not go unnoticed. VIX.X below WEEKLY S1 sets up "destiny" trade at correlative WEEKLY S2/MONTHLY S1. To get a lower VIX.X, you need CALL BUYING and/or PUT SELLING.

BIX.X ... Still anable to get the move above 360.69, but since Monday's open tick lows of 355.61, an "upward trend" continues to hold. I feel great pressure here and we've seen the banks trigger great action for the majors.

Dollar Index ... Pinned under WEEKLY S2. Where's the "pre-FOMC" dollar run, which can depict foreign capital coming into U.S. assets in anticipation of further FOMC rate hikes?

Meanwhile .... Treasuries find selling, slight curve steepening. Junk Bonds (PHF), find rejuvinated bid. This can be key as witnessed by long-time subscribers! Why would anyone be buying the riskiest bond asset class? Yes, perceived RISK is low and hunger for yield builds.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 12:06:58 AM

SPX Options Chain that was supposed to be displayed with today's (Wednesday's) 02:02:01 PM Post/comments at this Link

Obviously that comment/observation and options montage needs correcting immediately.

This was "driving me nuts" all afternoon and had me looking feverously around for clues as to what was going on.

Here is today's closing SPX options chain at this Link

Note the excessive selling bias of the Feb 1,180 Puts (SPT-NP) today (vs what I was looking at at 02:02:20 PM)

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:57:48 PM

SPX Options Chain that was supposed to be displayed with today's 02:02:01 PM Post/comments at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/25/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 5:29:14 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Day trade shorted 1/2 position in shares of IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) at the bid of $53.50. Post profile low was $52.67 and closed out at the offer of $52.85. ($+0.65, or +1.21%).

Established a stop for the Alcan AL March $40 Puts (AL-OH) of $0.45 per contract.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 5:05:07 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 4:58:49 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 4:35:03 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled down $0.0714, or -3.95% at $1.7356.

March Crude Oil settled down $1.21, or -1.80% at $65.85.

Jim Brown : 1/25/2006 4:11:25 PM

QCOM - announces 39 cents, inline with estimates also reaffirms prior guidance for 2006. No excitement here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 4:03:48 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.15, SPY $126.59

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 3:53:36 PM

7-minutes to close and I'm not overly comfortable holding a stock that has traded 52-week highs overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 3:52:33 PM

Bearish day trade close out alert for ICE at the offer of $52.85

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 3:49:45 PM

QQQQ daily chart updated at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 3:43:59 PM

QQQQ edging closer to descending resistance, volume picking up slightly. If this bearish triangle fails, it will threaten the 30/60 min cycle downphases. Those downphases have done relatively little damage so far, though bulls will still have a number of resistance levels to address above 41.25, starting in the 41.40 area. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 3:31:16 PM

VIX.X 13.16 -1.12% ... DAILY Pivot held resistance so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 3:26:46 PM

A new short cycle upphase has kicked off, the wavelet now overbought with the longer indicators just now turning up. Bulls need to break that declining resistance line at 41.25, now also the 72 SMA: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 3:14:22 PM

VIX.X 13.33 +0.15% ... comes to DAILY Pivot now. WEEKLY Pivot just above at 13.59.

5 to 30-year spread narrowed to the close, with curve flattening.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 3:12:17 PM

Volume breadth -1.5:1 on the NYSE, -1.4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 3:11:41 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 3:05:16 PM

QQQQ holds just off the lows, the short cycle indicators trending. The bearish triangle is still potentially in play between 41.08 and 41.25: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 3:03:38 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 2:50:16 PM

QQQQ tests 41.17 confluence and pivot support: Link Looks like a descending triangle setting up.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 2:48:41 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $32.08 -4.49% ... getting hit here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 2:47:29 PM

ICE ... day trader's chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 2:43:50 PM

Add another bp to TNX's gain, now up 8.1 bps at 4.471% as YM makes a new low. QQQQ is holding in the middle of this afternoon's range, the short cycles hopelessly chopped up: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 2:36:56 PM

Bearish day trade short alert for shares of IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $53.50 +1.47% here, stop $55.20, target $50.65.

1/2 position only.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 2:33:03 PM

Session low for ten year notes at 108 59/64, TNX now up 7.2 bps at 4.462%, lurching higher. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 2:28:32 PM

Crude oil trades -1.275 here at 65.775, 35 cents off the session low with 2 minutes to go in the regular session.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 2:18:17 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 2:06:55 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 2:02:20 PM

SPX Option Chain sorted by most active with down/up tick volumes. This looks bearish to me. Don't know how VIX.X -1.72%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 2:02:01 PM

Volume breadth -1.35:1 on the NYSE, -1.44:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 1:55:14 PM

As long as we can have our Steely Dan and Allman Brothers too- maybe get reader George from Nashville to play for us, unless he's busy working in the sequin mines...

QQQQ failed to regain 41.37 and has rolled back over. So far it's just a wavelet downphase, but it stalled the short cycle upphase in the process. Below 41.17, the bears should resume their push. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:53:14 PM

VIX.X 13.11 -1.50% ... Most active SPX options are Mar 1,350 Calls (24,863:40,674), Feb 1,180 Puts (18,480:22,753), Feb 1,325 Calls (18,261:43,802) and Dec 950 Puts (5,500:24,519)

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:46:26 PM

Look how light volume is today in the RKH ... just 146,800.

It "has to be" due to the bond market action. FOMC next week. A trigger should be given soon.

Buyers, sellers keeping close eye on each other. Who is going to budge?

Pressure... great pressure building.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 1:39:18 PM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles have rolled over but are actually stalled near the midpoints of their ranges, no direction apparent in those timeframes today. The short cycle has been in an upphase since the 41.09 low, but it's been getting poor traction for the past 40 minutes, price stuck to the 72 SMA at 41.31 currently. Volume has trailed off considerably, while volume breadth holds at -1.25:1 on both exchanges. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:33:38 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.60 +0.52% ... note today's current range of $0.15. That's 2-months of dividend ($0.075 per month).

At $0.075 per month, we know that the SEC yield at a price of $9.60 is 9.375%.

5-year yields 4.372%

10-year yields 4.446%

30-year yields 4.628%

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:39:58 PM

I feel great pressure in the markets today.

You can perhaps feel it too. VIX and VXN lower, while the majors find it difficult to mark a direction. Compression, pressure, which should be released shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:22:43 PM

5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) is up 6 bp at 4.375%. Pivot traders will note that today's trade and current levels is at WEEKLY R2.

10 and 30 have both traded ABOVE their WEEKLY R2s.

It is here that I thing bank bulls want to see some shorter-dated yield buyers.

Note BIX.X still juuuuust under WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:17:15 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 1:10:41 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 1:04:34 PM

Stepping away.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 1:03:46 PM

Indirect bidders took 5.39B of today's 22B 2-year note auction. The high-yield was 4.427%, the interest rate 4 3/8% with 2.11 bids tendered for each accepted. Currently, ten year note yields hold their 6bp gain at 4.45%, 13-weeek rates +.7 bps at 4.302%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 12:53:23 PM

Awaiting results of the 22B 2-year note auction in the next 10 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 12:47:39 PM

Note the volume decreasing on the advance as QQQQ retraces its earlier drop. Link That's a potential sign of trouble to come, and my guess is that the wavelet (middle oscillator pane) will mark the spot if that's to occur. Upper resistance at the 72 SMA is at 41.37- if bulls can clear it, then the wavelet will begin trending and volume should come in. Until then, the light volume advance is suspicious.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 12:31:25 PM

QQQQ just added 10 cents in roughly 3 seconds, back above S2 at 41.22.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 12:29:21 PM

Volume breadth drops to -1.45:1 on the NYSE, -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ tests Monday's low. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 12:16:16 PM

QQQQ holds just above the lows after failing to regain the bear flag for longer than a couple of minutes. The short cycle indicators are bottomy and want a bounce, but in that short timeframe, trending moves occur more easily- particular where the longer timeframes, from 30-min to weekly, are all in gear to the downside. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 12:14:31 PM

12:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 12:03:55 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:52:09 AM

Valero (VLO) alert $58.35 -3.23% ... getting hit.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:50:19 AM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $13.01 -2.4% ... probes the $13.00 strike.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 11:42:08 AM

The Fed's coupon pass was in the amount of $1.09B, a permanent addition to its dealers reserves deliverable tomorrow.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 11:40:54 AM

The wavelet bounce lost it early and the short cycle is rolling over here, QQQQ, back to testing short cycle channel support here. A downphase from here will have a good chance of retesting the current lows and the Monday low in the 41.10 area: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:44:46 AM

Alcoa (AA) $29.77 +1.56% Link ... after dissapointing earnings on Jan. 10. Just after that relative high of $30.95. Earnings had AA falling to $28.40, but that has been it so far.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:37:56 AM

Swing trade put establish stop alert ... Getting crushed in Alcan (AL) $44.39 +1.95%, which not unlike TIE $74.32 +2.80% is non ferrous metals.

Establish stop for the AL March $40 Puts (AL-OH) at $0.45.

Currently bid/offer $0.50 x $0.60.

Tab Gilles : 1/25/2006 11:34:29 AM

$NASI Followup to 1/24 9:28AM post. Sold 1/2 position in Profund UOPIX Ultra OTC at yesterday's closing NAV of $25.53. on average cost basis of $26.68 [1/5 $26.23 & 1/6 $27.13 purchases]. for a -4.3% loss. Link

However, I did not go short via USPIX. I'll remain 1/2 position long via UOPIX. The Weekly $NASI on the 23rd gave a reversal sell, yet the daily $NASI SAR did not confirm, Link plus the $VXN spike, which is usually buy signal, thus with these mixed signals I took 1/2 a position off the table. Here's another factor to consider the weekly $NASI which gave a sell signal on Monday's close reversed on the 24th, a false signal? But that hindsight.

1/23 weekly $NASI... Link

Now 1/24 weekly $NASI... Link

$VXN/$NDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:30:45 AM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) bar chart we're trading at this Link ... Big "flush" of volume last week right at PINK 38.2%. Bulls need some yield curve steepening to break each level of higher retracement.

For those that have been with us in the MM since October, you know where the "Bernanke Low" was found. All that Fed bashing that was going on.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 11:29:05 AM

Volume breadth holds at +1.15:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:22:39 AM

Something's got to give! ... check out those "Junk Bonds!" Ooooeeeee!

Either bond traders have lost their minds... short squeeze plays out .... OR we should see shorter-dated maturities find a BID and have their yields falling!

Watch those banks! BIX.X 360.26 +0.50% ... best levels of the session.

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $139.78 +0.52% ... challenges yesterday's highs here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 11:22:02 AM

QQQQ breaks back above broken bear flag support as the short cycle upphase strengthens. Price is back into the opening gap. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 11:20:29 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 109 here, TNX now +6 bps at 4.45%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:19:04 AM

March Unleaded (hu06h) $1.75 -3.31% ... Ok, get the al_rt here at that PINK 50% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:16:51 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 11:15:01 AM

Session low for crude oil here, -1.175 at 65.875.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:08:03 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:04:13 AM

Valero (VLO) $59.92 -0.66% ... not getting hit that bad. I'm neither long/short or put/call, but I'd want to take partial profits on Feb. Calls if I had them.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 11:03:18 AM

The EIA Inventory is a "shocker" as it might relate to the crude oil figures.

Thought: Crack spreads are/should get hit. Lower oil supply, yet higher unleaded/distillate supply.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:54:59 AM

Buy signals in the short cycle indicators, price returning to the site of the bear flag support at S1 at 41.45. A break back within the channel would open the possibility of a bear trap on that flag break, if the bulls can pull it off. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 10:52:13 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:48:33 AM

The Fed announces a coupon pass, which is the equivalent of a permanent repo, the second this week. No amount yet known.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 10:39:46 AM

EIA Weekly Inputs, Operable Capacity, Pct. Utilization Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:38:05 AM

Stepping away for an alka selzer fix.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:37:08 AM

QQQQ is finding support on the 30/60 min channel bottoms after breaking south out of its bear flag on a burst of volume. That support in play is mostly short cycle/wavelet support, but with the 30/60 min, daily and weekly cycles pointing lower, the burden of proof will be on the short cycle bulls. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:34:14 AM

Crude oil -.55 here at 66.50, natgas -.15 to 8.695.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:32:38 AM

From the EIA:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) declined by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. However, at 319.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels last week, putting them in the upper half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels last week, and are above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Most of the increase was in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil) inventories, as low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel) inventories rose only slightly compared to the previous week's level. Total commercial petroleum inventories jumped by 3.9 million barrels last week, and remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:32:12 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:25:01 AM

Volume breadth finally down to neutral, 1:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 10:22:41 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.15, SPX 1,266.87, QQQQ $41.31

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:21:01 AM

QQQQ has tested lower 30/60 min channel support, but because neither cycle is anywhere oversold territory, there's plenty of room for that support to head lower so long as price holds below the 72 SMA at 41.47 currently. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 10:16:11 AM

10:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:11:09 AM

One the 15 min chart, we see QQQQ breaking the rising flag support line off the Monday low: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:09:11 AM

And smashes it, engulfing yesterday's sideways range: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:08:25 AM

QQQQ tests the 72 SMA support line at 41.47: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:04:56 AM

Volume breadth +2.15:1 on the NYSE, +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 10:04:05 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.42, SPX 1,271.28, QQQQ $41.58.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 10:03:20 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 10:02:19 AM









Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 9:59:53 AM

QQQQ retests the session low, so far just a bearish divergent wavelet rollover here within the broader short cycle upphase: Link

Linda Piazza : 1/25/2006 9:59:40 AM

I'm just signing on for a moment this morning, but wanted to note that, ahead of the inventory numbers in a few minutes, the TRAN is within a few points of its 12/27 high of 4306.09, with the TRAN having reached a high today of 4298.16. Double-top, or will the TRAN blow through that December high? It's at one level of resistance, with envelope resistance (weekly chart) at 4335.72 currently. The TRAN is at 4286.05 as I type. Bulls of course do not want to see the TRAN plummet after the inventories number.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 9:55:19 AM

The Fed announces a 7B overnight repo for a net wash against the 7B expiring, but demand from the dealers rose, with the stopout rate up from 4.18% yesterday to 4.23% this morning. As I type, ten year notes are at a session low of 109 7/64.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 9:53:15 AM

Awaiting word from the Fed as to its disposition of the expiring 7B overnight repo, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 9:49:24 AM

Ten year notes continue to weaken, TNX now up 4 bps to 4.43%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 9:48:25 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.410 +0.45% ... Saying it will license its Windows source code in order to comply with European antitrust punishment.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 9:46:51 AM

The Qs have retraced back to their pre-8:30 levels, volume breadth down to a still-strong +2.5:1 on the Nasdaq. 1st sign of trouble for bulls will be a break of the 72 SMA at 41.47. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 9:33:28 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.16 and set for program selling at $+3.04.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 9:31:43 AM

Volume breadth +4.4:1 on the NYSE, +2.6:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 9:30:53 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA support is at 41.46 , 30/60 min channel resistance at 41.67 , 30/60 min channel support at 41.25-.30 .

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 9:13:15 AM

Keene's interpretation applies equally to the Qs, which have their 60 min cycle upphase roughly 2/3 done and hesitating, while the 30 min cycle has aborted its downphase in the early going. For now, the intraday cycles remain in sync to the upside, fighting the downward tide of the daily cycle downphase. I will post the intraday channel and SMA levels when they update at the bell.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 8:31:17 AM

Bonds hold their losses, TNX quoted +2.6 bps to 4.416%, steeper against IRX which is up 2.2 bps to 4.317%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 7:49:14 AM

From the Mortgage Bankers Assoc. website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 25, 2006) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 20. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume was 660.5 -- an increase of 7.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 613.3 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.2 percent compared with the previous week and was down 0.4 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index increased by 6.7 percent to 473.7 from 443.9 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index increased by 7.8 percent to 1773.9 from 1645.2 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which increased 7.1 percent to 982.6 from 917.1 the previous week, and the Government Index, which increased 15.9 percent to 123.4 from 106.5 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is up 4.6 percent to 605.0 from 578.4. The four week moving average is up 2.3 percent to 448.3 from 438.1 for the Purchase Index while this average is up 8.9 percent to 1570.0 from 1441.3 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 42.8 percent of total applications from 44.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 29.5 percent of total applications from 30.6 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/25/2006 7:48:19 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1275, NQ 1702, YM 10768 and QQQQ +.19 to 41.63. Gold is up 5.4 to 563.50, silver +.229 to 9.466, ten year notes -9/64 to 109 19/64, crude oil -.35 to 66.70 and natgas +.13 to 8.975.

We await the 10AM release of Existing Home Sales and at 10:30, the EIA Petrol report.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 5:12:29 AM

March Crude Oil futures ... floor trade and 15-minute intervals at this Link ... got close to WEEKLY S1.

Time for some sleep ... computers never sleep.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 4:49:09 AM

March Crude Oil futures at this Link

After a break of right shoulder and gap higher to $65.67, shorts will be eager to cover on any test of $64.16. $65.67 might even be tough support near-term depending on tomorrow's inventory data.

You should get the feel that when this contract came back into that $57.74-$58.38 zone for last time, it firmed a bit, then rocketed back above $63.04 for a daily settlement, that that action was quite bullish. So... $62.64-$63.04 becomes a BIG level of support.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 4:20:29 AM

March Unleaded futures at this Link ... Looks like it wants to trade back into $1.74 area.

That settlement ABOVE BLUE 19.1% of $1.85 was bullish, therefore, "should not settle below 2 BLUE levels back $1.665") give-or-take a few tenths of a penny.

SOMEBODY was waiting to sell PINK 80.9%, and they might not be done until $1.75.

Jeff Bailey : 1/25/2006 3:37:14 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) Read yesterday evening's MM posts first, then below at 01:35:48, then 01:49:40, then 02:06:31, then 02:46:28, then 03:13:20. Now here's a 15-minute interval chart where I add QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels Link

For me personally, MACD is a "tie breaker." If I think (based on observation) that a stock might be at a near-term top, and I've done my supply/demand analysis, risk/reward analysis and have my levels of risk defined, I'll use MACD for some input.

VLO is in what I would consider an UPWARD TREND, so Stochastics aren't that helpful. You can see a "range" of , say $59.75-$62.00 on a 15-minute interval, but that's about it.

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