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Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:40:30 AM

ym06h +30 at 10,862

es06h +4 at 1,281.75

nq06h +14 at 1,712.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:36:51 AM

I'm exhausted. See you in the morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:36:43 AM

If they like it at $86, they gott'a love it at $72 Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:36:34 AM

Sony (SNE) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:36:07 AM

Good Gravy! ... Reuters.com Nikkei ends at new five-year high, Sony surges Link

Wondering ... Don't market participants read all those headlines about the Middle East?

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:12:51 AM

Bear Confirmed alert! ... Today's action did find the S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link reversing back lower.

A quick scan of Dorsey/Wright's database has BDK Link giving a double bottom sell signal at $84.

AMGN Link gave a double bottom sell signal on 01/20/06 and follows with a spread triple bottom today. Broke its rising 200-day SMA today.

Hey ... this is a heavyweight in the QQQQ

Based on current market cap, #18 for the OEX

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:48:12 AM

El Paso Energy (EP) $13.00 -0.15% Link ... Current open profile of mine for the underlying share, as well as a Feb $13 covered call.

Dorsey/Wright classifies as Gas Utility (BPGUTI) is currently "bear correction" status at 60%.

EP has its fingers in a couple different pies as it relates to the natural gas industry. It isn't a "dividend payer" at this time, just $0.16 per year, with SEC yield of just 1.2%.

Sold those covered calls about two-day too early didn't I?

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:37:14 AM

Paying my utility bill for 12/13/05-01/13/06 : Denver, CO average temperature was 40 degrees F vs. 33 degrees F same period last year. My Natural Gas charge +11.3% vs. year ago. My electric +21.3%.

PnF chart of my utility company at this Link . Stock was trading ~$18.00 this time last year. Closed $19.25 on Thursday. So, it is up about 6.94%. Top it off with annual dividend of $0.86 and 1-year return about 11.72%.

Stock has achieved it bullish vertical count of $18.00. Might be an income producer if long. Write some calls against it?

Hey, maybe some "good news" for the consumer's wallet at this Link

Dorsey/Wright classification has XEL belonging to the Utilities/Electric group. This sector bullish % (BPEUTI) is "bear confirmed" at 70%.

Yes ... good covered call candidate.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 10:27:41 PM

SPY Quarterly R1 is $129.38, which did see trade on 01/11/06 (session high was $129.44)

OI Technical Staff : 1/26/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 9:58:20 PM

Hmmmm ... on 01/23/06 I noted a 5,000,000 share block of SPY at $126.40

What's next ... $128.40?

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 9:53:03 PM

Large Block Alert ... at 5:47:17 PM EST, 1,793,000 block of SPY crossed at $127.40.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 9:06:11 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.50 +0.37% ... $27.01 last tick in extended.

QQQQ $41.55 +0.70% ... last tick was $41.81.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 9:02:26 PM

General Motors (GM) $23.05 -3.35% ... Last ticked $22.80 after earnings.

Reuters Story at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 6:42:31 PM

Large Block Alert ... Bank of America (BAC) $44.90 +0.60% ... 2,254,000 billed out at $44.90 at 04:18:55.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 6:42:24 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Stopped out of the Alcan AL March $40 Puts (AL-OH) at the bid of $0.45 ($-0.85, or -65.38).

Closed out a ym06h long at 10,834 (+53, or $+265/contract).

Closed out 1/2 of the Regional Bank HOLDRs RKH Feb $140 Calls (RKH-BH) at the bid of $3.30 ($+1.30, or +65%).

Note: I'm not getting a QCharts data feed for the RKH options. I'm using my Ameritrade's Level II Bid/Ask and Volume report. Today's High/Low/Last = $3.50/$3.10/$3.40

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 5:41:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 5:36:20 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... NASDAQ's 249 new highs is most since 08/01/05.

Volumes heavy with NYSE average daily volume for January up 22% vs. December. NASDAQ average daily volume up 27% vs. December.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 4:35:14 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.50 +0.37% Link ... Dow component and QQQQ heavyweight called higher at $26.85 on headline numbers.

Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 4:31:12 PM

02:13 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled up $0.026, or +1.50% at $1.7616.

March Crude Oil settled up $0.41, or 0.62% at $66.26.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 3:51:07 PM

Swing trade sell partial calls alert ... Let's sell 1/2 of our Regional Bank HOLDRs RKH Feb $140 Calls (RKH-BH) at the bid of $3.30.

RKH $142.10 +1.75% ... here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 3:45:57 PM

QQQQ breaks back into the bear wedge from a lower high on the day: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 3:19:41 PM

QQQQ holds above rising flag resistance. I don't trust this move- my interpretation is that it's the last of the 60 min cycle upphase, holding the already-topped 30 min cycle in suspended animation. The short cycle indicators are overbought as well but with room left to run. Provided that the prior high at 41.70 resistance holds, then this bearish interpretation will be valid- above that level, this week's range would become a base for a potential breakout. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 3:16:21 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 3:09:17 PM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 3:03:26 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 3:00:54 PM

QQQQ holds above bear flag resistance, the short cycle rising further but still with room to run. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 2:59:35 PM

February Fed Fund futures (ff06g) alert 95.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 2:48:33 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) alert 88.70 +0.41% ... reclaims WEEKLY S1.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 2:46:45 PM

QQQQ breaks 41.50 here, the short cycle upphase strengthening. 30 min channel resistance is at 41.60, but the 30 min cycle downphase should stall on this pop if it doesn't reverse within the next few minutes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 2:44:22 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $108.00, SPX 1,273.69, QQQQ $41.49

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 2:36:20 PM

So far the short cycle upphasse is sideways and flaggy, which makes sense as it fights the broader 30 min channel downphase- but that downphase will need a break below 41.30 and for 41.50 to hold if tested. Direction is still up for grabs here, and the bulls are far from out of the woods yet. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 2:12:14 PM

Ten year not futures holding just above their lows here, ZN at 108 33/64 and TNX +4.8 bps at 4.527%. 3-day 100 tick chart of ZN at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 2:01:37 PM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators are on the cusp of a new upphase, but below 41.50 resistance, that upphase will be fighting the downward tide of the 30 min cycle. This looks like a risky place for QQQQ longs to me at current levels. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 1:44:04 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.66, SPX 1,270.51, QQQQ $41.35

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 1:43:41 PM

Session high for crud eoil at 66.825, +.975 here. Natgas has recovered from its 8.035 low to a .205 loss at 8.43.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 1:39:19 PM

The failure to regain the 72 SMA has QQQQ's 30 min cycle indicators and channel rolling over for the first time today. The oscillators had run to just below overbought territory, which suggests that so long as price holds below the 72 SMA at 41.47, there's room for the channel bottom (currently at 41.32) to run lower. This week's high has held so far, the high today 41.69. The higher low today is potentially bullish, but the daily cycle remains bearish for now- it would take several sessions with higher highs and higher lows to abort its downphase from current levels. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 1:35:27 PM

EIA Nat. Gas Inventory Table found at this Link

By region at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 1:17:23 PM

Bonds are still weak, but the yield curve steeper for a change, TNX +4.4 bps at 4.523% and IRX +2.8 bps at 4.335%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 1:14:20 PM

QQQQ got no traction on the 72 SMA break, almost the same as the last break at the 10:45AM low. The wavelet and short cycles are oversold here, due for an upphase if the Qs can clear 41.51 confluence. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 1:13:35 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 1:04:02 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 12:55:00 PM

QQQQ tests rising 72 SMA support here, the wavelet upphase getting clipped short. Volume remains light on the pulback, however, and breadth is still strong. If 41.45-.47 fails, look for next support at 41.35. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 12:51:42 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.91, SPX 1,273.16, QQQQ $41.47

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 12:48:04 PM

Volume breadth still strong at +2.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.85:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 12:47:06 PM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $13.04 +0.07% ... reversing earlier losses and post EIA natural gas inventory lows of $12.69.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 12:38:38 PM

QQQQ's 72 SMA lines up at the pivot here, 41.44: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 12:24:18 PM

Swing trade put stop alert for the Alcan AL March $40 Puts (AL-OH) at $0.45. $0.40 x $0.50.

AL $44.95 +3.54% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 12:16:24 PM

QQQQ pulls back from the top of this week's range, the short cycle indicators now on sell signals. The 30 min channel top was tickled but not breached. Bears need a break of 72 SMA support to pull the 30 min channel back down. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 12:07:01 PM

15-min chart of QQQQ at this Link heading toward R1 at 41.80. However, the short cycle is getting stretched, and on the 15 min chart, this rally-in-the-valley is growing overbought as well. However, this week's high is being tested- a critical spot right here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 12:05:12 PM

Volume breadth +2.15:1 on the NYSE, +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 12:00:37 PM

There isn't a bank in the bunch ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:59:44 AM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $142.00 +1.68% Link ... 50-day SMA alert!

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:50:29 AM

RKH-BH $2.90 x $3.40

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:49:29 AM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $141.88 +1.60% ... nice spike in volume here. 184,000

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:48:34 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 365.27 +1.39% ... get the trade at WEEKLY R1.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 11:46:33 AM

The Fed has announced another, that is a third, coupon pass, the third of this week, today in the amount of 1.19B. This is nearly 3B worth permanent additions to the liquidity base from the Fed this week via monetization of debt. If equities hold support, it won't have been without the Fed's assistance.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 11:44:30 AM

QQQQ holds within yesterday's and Tuesday's range. Zooming out, we see a higher short cycle low on the last dip- bullish. But the daily cycle still points south and the broader downtrend hasn't yet been violated. At this point, the 30/60 min cycles will follow the price rather than lead it, due to the extended sideways action. A break of 41.70 would set the stage for an upside break. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:41:52 AM

VIX.X alert 12.50 -2.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:35:31 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 531.90 +1.96% ... Get the trade at WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:33:20 AM

Broker Dealer Index (XBD.X) 212.14 +1.85% ... new all-time highs here. Probing WEEKLY R2.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 11:32:06 AM

Volume breadth +1.65:1 on the NYSE, +1.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:17:23 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/26/2006 11:16:49 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 11:02:49 AM

There was a burst of volume off the 41.23 low and QQQQ has run back to the pivot, back above 72 SMA support at 41.30. The wavelet bounce was enough to cut the short cycle downphase short, a bullish sign provided that the wavelet downphase now due doesn't violate 72 SMA support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:41:21 AM

Need to step away for a phone call.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:39:35 AM

QQQQ breaks 72 SMA support and finds first support at S1, 41.23. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:33:36 AM

Headline:

10:33am U.S. NATURAL GAS STKS DOWN 81 BLN CUBIC FT: ENERGY DEPT

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:33:17 AM

Natgas -.565 at 8.07 here, crude oil -.15 at 65.70.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:30:36 AM

From the EIA website:

Working gas in storage was 2,494 Bcf as of Friday, January 20, 2006, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 81 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 191 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 445 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,049 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 225 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 56 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 143 Bcf above the 5-year average of 596 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 13 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 76 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 12 Bcf. At 2,494 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:30:11 AM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support here, below which the 30 min cycle will stall. The short cycle has already rolled over here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:28:14 AM

Headline:

10:27am BUSH: HAMAS MUST RENOUNCE ITS CALL FOR ISRAEL'S DESTRUCTION

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:22:47 AM

Session low for natgas, -.525 at 8.11 with 8 minutes to go until the EIA report.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:22:22 AM

Volume breadth _1.6:1 on the NYSE, +1.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:19:56 AM

Headlines:

10:18am BUSH: CAN WORK WITH CONGRESS DESPITE COMING FALL ELECTION

10:20am BUSH SAYS WILL ASK CONGRESS TO MAKE TAX CUTS PERMANENT

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:17:52 AM

QQQQ is back to the low, still resistnace above yesterday afternoon's range. A gap fill would target the 72 SMA at 41.29 on the way to gap support at 41.25: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:01:07 AM

Headlines:

U.S. DEC. HELP-WANTED INDEX STEADY AT 39: CONFERENCE BOARD

HELP-WANTED ADS RISE IN 4 OF 9 U.S. REGIONS IN 4Q

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 10:00:31 AM

A 13B overnight repo results in a net drain of 4B for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 9:43:33 AM

The 30 min cycle is now out of synch with the 60, pointed up again against the 60 which is stalled in a weak downphase. The sideways drift in price this week has chopped up these longer intraday cycles. The short cycle, that narrow band within them, is still rising but now overbought at near the top of yesterday's range. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 9:32:57 AM

The Fed has 27B in various repos expiring today. They have replaced the 10B expiring 14-day repo with a new 10B via 14-day repo, for a net wash in that timeframe. We await the short term announcement at 10AM as to the remaining 17B.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 9:31:51 AM

Volume breadth is +6:1 on the NYSE, +3:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 9:31:24 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is down at 41.25 , 30/60 min channel support at 40.98 , 30/60 min channel resistance at 41.45-41.52 .

Jane Fox : 1/26/2006 9:21:11 AM

DAteline WSJ Hamas' top official told Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday that the Islamic militant group is ready for a partnership, after it defeated the ruling Fatah Party in parliamentary elections, an upset sure to throw Mideast peacemaking into turmoil.

Officials in both parties said Hamas appeared to have captured a large majority of seats in Wednesday's elections. The Central Election Commission delayed announcement of the official results, though, and said the vote count had not been completed. It planned to make an official announcement Thursday evening.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 9:16:42 AM

Headline:

BUSH TO HOLD PRESS CONFERENCE AT 10:15 A.M. EASTERN THURSDAY

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 9:08:07 AM

No reprieve for bonds, TNX now up 3 bps to 4.509%, steeper against IRX which is now up 2.8 bps at 4.335%. It's too early for my daily chart to reflect today's print, but we see a break of the daily cycle downtrend on yesterday's move being confirmed by this morning's 3 bp gain: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 8:32:02 AM

QQQQ holds +.31 at 41.57, ten year notes drop to 108 5/8, TNX now up 2.6 bps to 4.505%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 8:31:22 AM

Headline:

U.S. DEC. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANSPORTATION UP 0.9%

U.S. DEC. DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS RISE 3.5%

U.S. DEC. DURABLE GOODS INVENTORIES UNCHANGED

U.S. DEC. CORE CAPITAL EQUIPMENT ORDERS RISE 3.5%

U.S. 2005 DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RISE 8.2%

U.S. DEC. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RISE 1.3% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 11,000 TO 283,000

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 10,750 TO 288,750

FOUR-WEEK AVG. CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE JULY 2000

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 53,000 TO 2.58 MLN

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 8:22:59 AM

Ten year notes hold their 1/32 loss, TNX quoted +.8 bps at 4.487%, flatter against IRX which is up 2.3 bps at 4.33%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 7:55:06 AM

The overnight rally came roughly halfway through the synchronous 30/60 min cycle downphases in QQQQ, and the daily cycle continues its downphase as well. Only in the shortest intraday timeframes was an upphase due, actually in progress from the 3PM low, but obviously the force of the move exceeded those we spent most of yesterday tracking. Nevertheless, yesterday's high has not yet broken, and given the combination of downphases that this short cycle bounce is fighting, there's a greater than usual chance of a gap & crap when the real volume returns. In the meantime, there's the 8:30AM data as well. If the bulls can rally it from here, such a move would turn this week's churn along the lows into a base, setting a stage for a powerful move up higher- but the 50 day SMA is at 41.66, and the bulls need to clear it and hold it first.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/26/2006 7:43:06 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1279, NQ 1702.5, YM 10820 and QQQQ +.36 to 41.62. Gold is down 4.90 to 557.60, silver is flat at 7.26, ten year notes are down 1/32 to 108 51/64, crude oil is flat at 65.85 and natgas is down .27 to 8.365.

We await the 8:30 releases of Durable Odors, est. +1%, Initial claims, est. +300K, then at 10AM the Help Wanted Index, est. 39, and at 10:30, the EIA Natural Gas report.

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