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OI Technical Staff : 1/27/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 7:43:57 PM

Trade Blotter month to date at this Link

The "light yellow" highlighted trades are those that would depict what a gain/loss looks like using 1,000 shares as a full position versus $10,000 as a full position.

I profile trades with a TARGET and a STOP so that a trader that may not be able to trade 1,000 shares, has an idea of REWARD/RISK before they enter a trade. No sense day trade buying/shorting 200 shares of $50 security if my REWARD target is $0.10.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 7:49:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Day traded long shares of Apple Computer (AAPL) at the offer of $72.61, but closed out at $71.80 ($-0.81, or -1.12%)

Swing traded long the QQQQ Mar $43 Puts (QQQ-OQ) at the offer of $1.50.

I discussed some of my "reasoning" for the QQQQ put trade in today's MM as it relates to the bullish % as well as the Regional Bank HOLDRs calls.

You may say ... "But I'm not long the RKH calls and the QQQQ still looks strong." Good point! A trader that hasn't overleveraged in the QQQQ puts might still be able to afford 100, or 200 shares of QQQQ, use your 2 Mar $43 Puts as protection, if you're pretty sure, or worried the QQQQ is going to move toward the recent highs into the FOMC. (see today's 03:49:48 post and chart) also see 02:24:58 post.

The RKH-BH are currently bid/ask $3.30 x $3.70, last trade was $3.10. 11 contracts traded with low/high of $3.10-$3.20.

Oh ... the AMR Feb. $11 Puts. This is now becoming my "when the bombs start falling" trade. I pray there will NOT be any more bombs falling, and from the looks of today's AMR trade, market participants don't seem overly concerned, nor have they been since I profiled these puts when AMR was trading $10.82. Even as oil rockets back toward the highs I might add. I've got 6 of these "bad boys" in my own account and if I thought I could talk somebody into buying them from me for $0.15, I'd sell them to them!

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 6:40:31 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

New highs busting out. At 02:55:46 PM I noted CNBC's quick interview with John Bollinger. He mentioned how darned strong the NH/NL indications were. He smirked and shook his head when he was asked "is it a sign of a bubble and how long will the current strength last?" Mr. Bollinger's smirk looked like that of frustration as he said (and I paraphrase), "who knows, and I'm not even going to try and guess."

VIX.X ... hour-to-hour benchmarks was complete flatline.

What I think traders might be al_rt to next week is that "spike" lower when the FOMC gives its statement.

If I'm online with the QQQQ Puts, we'll likely see the QQQQ hit a weekly R1, maybe the MONTHLY R2 again. But for a reversal lower, it had better come somewhere below $43.21.

For the RKH, we're right at the "top of a range," but if the curve steepens like I think it will, the banks are going to shoot higher. Note however, that UNLIKE the major indices, the "top of the range" for the BIX.X/RKH Link has been there pretty much since February 2005! Somebody's knocking on the door, all the banks need is for the FOMC to signal a "pause" for the bull's bell to ring!

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 6:39:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

52-week % change ... INDU +4.20%, SPX +9.29%, NDX +13.5% and BIX.X +0.13%

Think about the 52-week % change. Is there some profit that could be removed, even if the FOMC signals a pause? The bullish % indications suggest so.

I think it is the BANKS that stand the most to gain!

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 5:04:39 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled up $0.0484, or 2.75% at $1.81.

March Crude Oil settled up $1.50, or +2.26% at $67.76.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 4:35:13 PM

Hmmmm.... QQQQ goes out at $42.10. That's pretty close to the 19.1% retracement of $42.1156. "Neutral" within a $41.02-$43.21 range. "Bullish" within a $40.34-$43.21 range.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 4:05:44 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $109.06 , SPY $128.42

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 3:49:48 PM

QQQQ chart I showed earlier this week at this Link

I received a question (addressed to Jonathan and I) about how I/we trade the QQQQ.

Here's my starting point.

For the most part, I trade the QQQQ like anything else. I try and identify some type of range. If it is conventional use of retracement, or Pivot Matrix Levels, I try and get an idea of a range.

However, unlike a stock, the QQQQ is much more dynamic. You've got 100 stocks, some that count more than others (becasue of the weighting). Still, I think you need some type of range, with that range divided by levels.

I think it is also important to know "what you did and where you did it!" That is, keep some type of trade blotter. Know what your observations were in the past, that gave you the conviction for the trade, then understand how that old trade panned out. Were you entirely wrong? Partially wrong? Or right on the button.

Regardless of outcome, alway try and understand what you SHOULD have done. How could the old trade have been "perfect?" Max profit?

The QQQQ is what I consider to be a perfect example of an "emotional security." That is, traders (bullish and bearish) love to trade it based on current events, news (stock specific, tech specific, geopolitical) and a trader that can get away from that emotion, and look at levels as being a bull, or bear's flinch point, is well served.

Using the above chart and the retracement shown, who had the "risk" the past couple of days, and to what level? With MSFT (big weight) gapping higher, we might think bears had the risk to $42.11. After seeing what the SOX did yesterday, then WEEKLY R1 (42.33) for the QQQQ.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 3:34:51 PM

QQQQ holds pinned between R2 and R1, just below descending flag resistance. The short cycle upphase is looking stronger than it did even 30 mins ago, but it's running out of time to deliver the breakout. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 3:33:31 PM

There's not a whole heck of a lot of premium in XEL calls to sell is there?

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 3:30:20 PM

El Paso (EP) $13.53 +4.07% ...

Xcel Energy (XEL) $19.42 +0.88% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 3:20:42 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Check out today's yield curve action.

Check out those BIX.X 366.88 +0.30% ... You'd think they would have given it all back.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 3:18:32 PM

Ten year notes bounced into the cash close but never regained their morning highs, ZN currently trading up 3/64 at 108 19/32. Link TNX closed lower by 2 bps at 4.503%, while the IRX gained .5 bps at 4.337%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 3:09:44 PM

Volume breadth holds at +1.75:1 on the NYSE, +1.35:1 on the Nasdaq. QQQQ continues to chop below the 72 SMA: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 3:07:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:55:46 PM

Hey, hey ... Listen to CNBC right now. John Bollinger talking about NH/NL ratio!

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:45:57 PM

(contd. from 02:24:58) ... Now, when I profiled today's QQQQ March $43 Put trade at $1.50, the first thing that crossed my mind yesterday and today was my QQQQ $42 Put (QQQ-MP) trade from 11/20/2005 (per 11/18/05 instruction at 05:39:49 PM) Link is how "similar" things are today, as they were then.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 2:38:52 PM

The wavelet and short cycle bounces just banged their heads on R1, never testing the 72 SMA. This all confirms the broader 30 min and now 60 min channel downturns in progress. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 2:28:17 PM

Upturn in the short cycle upphase as the wavelet maxxes out within it. Link The 72 SMA overlaps R1 and remains the bullish goal to stall the young 30 min cycle downphase.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:24:58 PM

At this point, my MM portfolio is set, and I don't expect to make any changes unless the MARKET triggers one of the stops.

I (Jeff Bailey) think the market's main focus is Tuesday/Wednesday FOMC. It isn't the "Hamas trade." Is current leadership much different than the influence Yasser Arafat presented? Some may think/believe so. That's fine, but it sure didn't seem to impact trade yesterday, or today, as some had thought it might.

I outlined my thoughts on the RKH and possible yield curve impact. We took some profits off the table in this trade yesterday. My BULL RISK at this point is $200.00. If you're long 10 options, then its $2000.00.

Today's addition of the QQQQ Mar $43 Puts, is somewhat of a hedge. Yes, the $BPNDX has reversed back lower, so I'm a little more bearish. Still the NASDAQ NH/NL indications are quite bullish (yet at higher bullish risk levels), as is the $NASI Link (rising at 130). Do you see a "sell signal?" I do not. I see a/d breadth still rather positive. Remember! The NASDAQ-100 is 100 stocks! the $NASI is BROAD! I do understand that the $NASI would currently give a "sell signal" at -80.00, just under the January (1) low.

For the $NASI, let's envision that 0.00 is a mid-point. If I stretch my imigination for a benchmark, the QQQQ might be $41.50?

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 2:03:25 PM

Never a dull moment- a return of supportive volume has QQQQ back within the broken flag support line. However, the 30/60 min downphases should keep a lid on the price so long as the 72 SMA at 42.10 doesn't get violated on this wavelet bounce. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 2:02:46 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 1:49:09 PM

Volume breadth down to +1.65:1 on the NYSE, +1.45:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 1:38:57 PM

QQQQ loses flag support on the break, a surge of volume to confirm the move. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:36:36 PM

QQQQ $41.95 +0.96% ....

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:35:56 PM

Swing trade put option alert let's take two (2) of the QQQQ March $43 Puts (QQQ-OQ) at the offer of $1.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 1:30:21 PM

QQQQ holding flag support so far. If support breaks, it would commence a trending move for the oversold short cycle. That's rare, but occurs more easily when the 30 and 60 min cycles are starting to roll from overbought as is the case here. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 1:21:28 PM

Volume breadth down to +1.9:1 on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, still quite strong. The heavy volume was to the upside today, and by comparison, there's little participation on the decline.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:18:48 PM

QQQQ $42.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:18:29 PM

No since waiting to see if $71.57 holds.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:17:54 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... for AAPL $71.80 -0.76% here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:16:53 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 1:14:24 PM

QQQQ failed at a lower high and is break back to retest R1 from above for the second time today. The short cycles are oversold and the bottom of the range could still prove to be bull flag support off the high- but S1 needs to hold: Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 1:04:38 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 12:57:38 PM

QQQQ $42.15 .... AAPL $72.16.

Do you see where we are?

Yep, need QQQQ to hold the bid, need AAPL to hold dynamic 61.8%.

Yes ... I wouldn't try a QQQQ day trade long (up 1.34%), but look for some type of "technical value" from AAPL in an otherwise bullish day.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 12:53:58 PM

AAPL $72.12 -0.29% ... when I see this as a day trader, I can not now be thinking ... "oh yeah, it will go to $74.90" by the close.

If shorts were real jittery and wanting to lock in gains, they "should have" bid it hard at 50% dynamic.

Sloppy in the day's range at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 12:48:59 PM

Ten year notes back down to 108 35/64 with TNX up to a .4 bp loss at 4.519%. IRX is up .3 bps at 4.335%. A new short cycle downphase has kicked off from a lower high, suggesting a good chance that TNX will see green on this next run. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 12:41:23 PM

For AAPL, I really don't want to see the stock come back below the 50% dynamic (pink) and am looking for broader tech strength to have WEEKLY S2 providing some type of short-covering buying to WEEKLY S1. DAILY Pivot is always a test for strength.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 12:38:37 PM

AAPL ... Day trader's chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 12:26:04 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Apple Computer (AAPL) $72.61 here, stop $71.50, target $74.90.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 12:19:50 PM

Good Gravy ... MSFT last tick in last night's extended session was $27.01.

WEEKLY R2 has been taken out at $27.61.

5-MRT BLUE #6 just ahead at $27.83.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 12:15:51 PM

A wavelet upphase here has stalled the short cycle downphase after its weak run. A failure to clear 42.25 would spell trouble in the form of a wavelet top at a lower price high, but so far the selling has been much weaker and on lighter volume than the buys, and volume breadth remains strong at +2.5:1 on the Nasdaq. The bulls clearly have the ball above the 72 SMA, which is up to 42.00 here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 12:15:25 PM

10-Most Active ... MSFT $27.76 +4.75%, QQQQ $42.18 +1.51%, INTC $21.75 +1.20%, LU $2.65 +1.14%, SPY $128.47 +0.87%, JDSU $3.21 +1.58%, ORCL $12.49 +0.40%, SIRI $5.82 (unch), BRCM $69.69 +18.75%, PFE $25.85 +3.19%

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 12:02:57 PM

Ten year notes firming back up off the lows, TNX back down to a 1.6 bp loss at 4.507%, flatter against IRX which is up .5 bps to 4.337%. TNX is bullish above 4.44%, in a new daily cycle upphase after breaking downtrend resistance earlier this week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:55:50 AM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $142.88 +0.36% ... benchmark RKH-BH with bid/ask $3.60 x $4.10.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:53:24 AM

BIX.X 367.26 +0.41% ... did get trade at DAILY R1. A little different "weighting" for the BIX.X than the RKH, but they will track pretty close.

My QCharts DAILY Pivot levels are much different than my hand/Excel spreadsheet pivot levels. QCharts is using Wednesday's close and then that big spike up Thursday morning. No way did the BIX.X actually trade 363.33 yesterday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:47:25 AM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $142.60 +0.16% ... just hit that $142.88 level. I've got al_rts set at those levels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:45:27 AM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $13.28 +2.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:37:57 AM

Yes ... traded WEEKLY S1 yesterday, now it approaches WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:36:52 AM

Good eye Jonathan! (11:25:34) That was a "trigger" I think traders need to be alert to.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:27:09 AM

QQQQ $42.09 +1.29% ... For those that followed my comments from Wednesday night, saw the bullish triggers yesterday, the QQQQ is now at that $42.11 area.

It spiked to $42.39 and that is most likely the excessiveness from shorts putting up the white flag.

If long, pay yourself.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:27:01 AM

QQQQ $42.09 +1.29% ... For those that followed my comments from Wednesday night, saw the bullish triggers yesterday, the QQQQ is now at that $42.11 area.

It spiked to $42.39 and that is most likely the excessiveness from shorts putting up the white flag.

If long, pay yourself.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 11:25:34 AM

Big upside reversal for the USD Index: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 11:23:31 AM

This sideways downphase off the high isn't going to cut it for bears, and looks quite bullish to me. If the best the sellers can do is a sideways drift after this morning's meltup, the 72 SMA still 30 cents south for QQQQ, then whatever cycle is driving the bids still has more gas in the tank. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:21:14 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:06:46 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 11:03:04 AM

Regional Bank HOLDRs Components at this Link ... Here's a "portfolio table" I put together yesterday during market hours. I got the "weighting" from the AMEX market site, which gives me # of shares of each stock.

So ... "Cost" would be somewhat representative of how this security is weighted. Wachovia looks to be the LARGEST weighting, then Piper the smallest.

I do question if the AMEX site has a typo with just 0.57 shares of Piper. I think it might be 5.7 shares, but I'm going with the AMEX site for now.

Then at the bottom, I show the 5, 10 and 30 year yields. Focus is always the Net (not Net%) for an observation of the yield curve.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:56:56 AM

QQQQ blasted through my stop, ran to a high of 42.39, and is now back below the broken descending resistance line. All intraday cycles are due for downphases here, the short cycle just starting its rollover. Bears need to see a break of 41.77 at the 72 SMA to kick off the overdue 30/60 min cycle downphases. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 10:49:22 AM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $142.19 -0.11% ... Trade outlook and plan/strategy at this Link

What I believe is the BEST trade on the board for a speculative option trade.

Yesterday I wanted to book some gain on 1/2 of our bullish position, pay ourselves for some of the risk we took.

Now I want to wait until Wednesday, roll the dice if you will, and see what the FOMC has to say.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:45:49 AM

No new coupon passes announced yet today- looks like the Fed will stop at 3 days/5 this week. I don't know if that's unprecedented, but it's the largest number of permanent open market ops I can remember seeing in a single week.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:41:23 AM

Volume breadth +2.9:1 on the NYSE, +3.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 10:22:09 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.74, SPX 1,284.56, QQQQ $42.25

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:21:47 AM

Big drop in the ten year note, TNX up to a .4 bp loss at 4.519%. My guess is that it's contracting liquidity instead of asset reallocation driving the rise in yields, but it's a guess and nothing more.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:10:34 AM

QQQQ's chart today looks like Fannie Mae's yesterday. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:08:56 AM

QQQQ 15 min chart at this Link . That resistance goes back 2 weeks.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:06:42 AM

Awesome strength. Volume breadth +3.3:1 on the NYSE, +3.1:1 on the Nasdaq, strengthening on a huge surge of volume.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:05:52 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 42.25 -.06

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:03:49 AM

Last short attempt on this move, right at the descending trendline. If resistance here fails, the bears will have dropped the ball again. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:02:46 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 42.29 stop 42.25

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 10:02:37 AM

Thanks ... I've got no feed for either.

Dollar was strong, but the GDP data looks like it zapped overnight strength.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:02:10 AM

Headlines:

SNOW DISMISSES Q4 GDP SLOWDOWN AS AN ANOMALY

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 10:01:14 AM

Daily chart of USD Index futures at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:59:52 AM

Only this for the USD Index: Link and the CRB +.36 at 343.82, with natgas, heating oil and soybeans in the lead.

Jeff Bailey : 1/27/2006 9:58:49 AM

Jonathan ... are you getting Dollar Index or CRB Index feeds this morning?

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:58:14 AM

QQQQ is melting up toward the downtrend line off the year high, currently at 42.20. All short cycle indicators are trending in overbought. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2006 9:57:49 AM

Another Fib projection for the SOX--these are art more than science--is up nearer 565.30, so don't count on the SOX turning around at 560. So far, it's shown no inclination to even drop back into today's huge gap to plumb it for support. Shorts are still scrambling. My strong advice is still to protect bullish positions and maybe consider taking some off the table.

Have to go again. Good luck, all. Crazy day again, it appears.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:55:02 AM

A 5.75B weekend repo replaces the 13B expiring today, for a net drain of 7.25B. The stop out rate on treasury collateral rose to 4.35%, approaching a new anticipated 4.5% overnight rate for next week's FOMC announcement.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2006 9:49:41 AM

If long the SOX or SOX stocks this morning, you've been given a present, along with high volatility to hike the prices of the options. Consider taking some profits off the table here and consider your plan to protect profits in case this is finally THE exhaustion gap.

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2006 9:46:35 AM

One Fib projection I had for the SOX was 560, as mentioned a couple of weeks ago in a Wednesday Wrap, but with all the gaps the SOX had in its climb, I had some doubt it would reach it, because those certainly looked like exhaustion gaps. This move looks way overdone to the upside on every single Keltner chart I have, but nothing is stopping the climb so far. The SOX is at 557.04 as I type.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:46:28 AM

Volume breadth +1.8:1 on the NYSE, +1.85:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:44:15 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

Out QQQQ at 41.92, -.10

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:43:54 AM

Too early.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:42:31 AM

Entry is based on toppy short cycle indicators within a potential 30/60 min topping zone- but it's uncomfortably far from confluence resistance, and the stop is wider than I'd like for that reason. Price is still above 30/60 min channel resistance. Link

Linda Piazza : 1/27/2006 9:41:07 AM

Just dropping in for a few moments again this morning to warn traders to watch the SOX. It broke above its latest consolidation pattern, gapping higher from yesterday's 536.54 close to this morning's 551.44 open, and it's currently at 553.23.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:40:58 AM

QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 41.82 stop 41.92

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:39:28 AM

Volume breadth +1.65:1 on the NYSE, +1.3:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:39:05 AM

Looks like 41.92 was it, QQQQ dropping into the gap, currently 41.75: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:35:54 AM

I will be looking to enter a short as close to 42 as I can get with a tight stop just above it. Here's the multiday 3-min chart compressed: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:33:50 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA support is at 41.45, 30/60 channel resistance at 41.72, 30/60 channel support at 41.30.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:27:50 AM

Looks like the "staglation" conundrum:

As growth slowed, core inflation heated up. The core personal consumption expenditure price index -- which excludes food and energy prices -- rose at a 2.2% annual rate in the quarter, above the Federal Reserve's 1% to 2% target range. In the past year, the core PCE index has increased 1.9%.

The report puts the Federal Open Market Committee in a quandary. If growth were to remain tepid, the Fed would be obligated to hold rates steady or even cut them. But the continued inflation pressures argue for higher rates.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 9:26:38 AM

Bad tick to 41.55 QQQQ so far this AM, but it looked like a fat fingered trade. Price is holding below its earlier highs in what should be 30/60 min cycle tops, but the flat range that held all week skewed those indicators and I'm not confident in my read of them. The overnight high has printed 42 so far, and there gap support down at 41.57. I'll update the SMA and channel levels when they refresh in a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 8:41:23 AM

100 tick chart of ZN bond future at this Link , bouncing from the 7200 tick SMA after a 30/60 min channel breach.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 8:40:13 AM

QQQQ pulls back now to 41.79, ten year notes settle a bit to 108 27/64. TNX is down 2.8 bps to 4.495%, flatter against IRX which down .7 bps to 4.325%.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 8:32:11 AM

Huge move higher for bonds, session high for ZN 108 19/64. QQQQ at 41.88.

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 8:31:29 AM

Headlines:

U.S. 4Q GDP RISES 1.1% ANNUAL VS. 2.7% EXPECTED

U.S. 4Q FINAL SALES FALL 0.3%, 1ST DECLINE SINCE RECESSION

U.S. 4Q CONSUMER SPENDING RISES 1.1% VS. 4.1%

U.S. 4Q BUSINESS INVESTMENT RISES 2.8% VS. 8.5%

U.S. 2005 RISES 3.5% VS. 4.2% IN 2004

U.S. 4Q CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.2%

U.S. 4Q DURABLE GOODS SPENDING FALLS 17.5%, MOST IN 18 YEARS

U.S. 2005 PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE NEGATIVE 0.5%

U.S. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 1.9% YEAR-ON-YEAR

Jonathan Levinson : 1/27/2006 7:46:42 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1281.75, NQ 1713.5, YM 10866 and QQQQ +.38 to 41.93. Gold is up 1.90 to 561.70, a session high, silver is up .159 to 9.765, ten year notes are up 5/64 to 108 5/8, crude oil is up .90 to 67.15 and natgas is up .28 to 8.70.

We await the 8:30 release of the Q4 GDP, est. 2.8% and at 10AM, New Home Sales. As well, the Fed's open market desk has released the greatest number of permanent operations I've ever seen in a single week, and those coupon passes are usually announced just past 10:30. The Fed is 3 for 4 so far this week, monetizing around 3B of debt on a permanent basis. We'll see today if they want to make it 4 for 5.

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