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Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 1:55:42 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.26 and set for program selling at $+2.07.

OI Technical Staff : 2/1/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 8:07:53 PM

GOOG Option Montage for Feb. expiration at this Link (Open Interest as of Tuesday's close).

Quick notes:

1st: GOOG trades $350 to the penny in Tuesday's extended session. Just marking that strike. Something important there. Not sure what, just know it is there. Those 350 puts didn't see much action in the scope of things. If they had, with obvious dntick outnumbering uptick, I'd be more certain of a low.

2nd: In PINK I marked today's 6 most active options. You might think ... "look at all those crazy bulls!" Not really. See the Dntick vs. UpTick measures? I marked #4 and #5 in Red. OBVIOUS call SELLING. Volumes of both those CALLS almost match their Open Interest. Tomorrow morning, I'll check Open Interest. If OI drops, then that would suggest LONG LIQUIDATORS of the OPTIONS. Should OI increase then I've got to think NAKED call sellers, or COVERED CALL SELLERS.

3rd: The $390 Put (GOP-NR) is #6 most active. Checked the DnTick vs. UpTick (999:787) and not that revealing. No real bias from traders. Still, today's cash session GOOG low was $387.52. Let's do this for now ... Let's assume the only trader's "brave, or big enough" to be a seller of puts did sell the $390 all day, with average cost of $11.75. Let's place a "floor" at 390 - $11.75 = $378.25. GOOG gets below that and another distribution lower.

4th: Marked up in BLUE the 3 largest CALL and PUT OI (as of Tuesday's close). Still get an intersection at/around $430. Will that go away after today's trade and new OI tabulation? We'll have an answer tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 7:59:19 PM

GOOG ... 5-minute interval chart, adding tomorrow's DAILY Pivot levels at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 7:59:09 PM

Day trader's alert for tomorrow! ... Googlearians and QQQQ traders alike.

Will be monitoring conventional pivot formula QQQQ Daily S1 ($41.84) and WEEKLY Pivot ($41.86) correlation support.

This may well tie up with GOOG retracement zone of $394.74-$396.14. GOOG went out at $401.78 -7.13%, and last tick in extended $403.77.

Using a GOOG High/Low/Close of $402.00/$387.52/$401.78 , tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels for GOOG are $382.62, $392.20, Piv= $397.10, $406.68, $411.58.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 5:46:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade shorted a full position in shares of Valero Energy (VLO) at the bid of $61.30. Covered 1/2 at $60.00 ($+1.30, or +2.12%).

Targeting $56.00 on remainder.

Updated chart of VLO shown at 2:32:56.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 5:24:48 PM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) $141.49 (unch) Link ... The 5 to 30-year curve got CRUSHED today, yet the banks hold tough. So tough.

5-year yield ($FVX.X) Link now equal to current Fed Funds.

I'll go back for seconds in an RKH call if they backfill that gap to $140 and the 5-year stays here or YIELD begins to fall, which should have curve steepening again.

Bank of America (BAC) $43.95 -0.63% Link looks TERRIBLE/WEAK, but closes right at its 1/23/06 spike low ($43.49) level.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 5:12:55 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... NASDAQ NH/NL ratios build to new high readings.

Today's NASDAQ-100 Heatmap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 4:38:40 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 4:30:25 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

Wild session for March Nat. Gas. Was "hot" earlier today (floor trade high $9.85) and it couldn't have been much after the chatter that T. Boone Pickens may have been covering a large short position, the bottom fell out. I do think today's trade resembles a BIG short locking in some gain. BUY BIG then stop. BUY BIG then stop.

March Unleaded settled down $0.0763, or -4.23% at $1.7288.

March Crude Oil settled down $1.36, or -2.00% at $66.56.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 4:09:34 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $109.57, SPY $128.35

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 4:05:07 PM

QQQQ $42.12 +0.26% ... juuuuust above that $42.11 level. The bearish side of me gets some jitter. All the hype over GOOG and sellers can't keep the Qs below WEEKLY Pivot/MONTHLY Pivot?

Google (GOOG) $401.78 -7.13% .... juuust above $400.00.

It was a "bargain" last night wasn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 3:56:30 PM

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) $130.59 -4.86% Link ... Does trade $130 today, so that negates the bullish vertical count to $162.

Here's a snapshot of ISRG's option montage at this Link

I can't say for certain that the Option Prices shown (Last and AvgOHLC) are accurate as I've had computer problems today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 3:54:33 PM

Volume breadth +1.5:1 on the NYSE, +1.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 3:45:08 PM

Session highs for QQQQ and NQ. 30/60 min channel resistance line up at 42.20 confluence: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 3:37:09 PM

Them darned QQQQ are going after $42.11 yet again!

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 3:30:23 PM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $56.47 +11.11% ... oooooeeee!

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 3:28:52 PM

Bearish swing trade cover 1/2 alert ... Cover 1/2 of the Valero Energy (VLO) short here at the offer of $60.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 3:27:38 PM

QQQQ's holding right on trendline resistnce, with the short cycle indicators pinned in overbought territory- toppy and possibly starting to trend. This would be more obviously bearish or bullish if it were possible to get a read on the 30 and 60 min cycle indicators, but they're still opposed and chopped up, with no obvious resolution to this morning's ambiguity. Price-wise, bulls need a strong break of 42.20 to challenge the range high to 42.40- below that, this looks like more churning within a complex top. Meanwhile, price is unchanged from its post-10AM range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 3:14:11 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 3:13:56 PM

QQQQ tries again at the intraday descending resistance line: Link

Jane Fox : 2/1/2006 3:06:21 PM

Dateline WSJ U.S. auto makers reported vehicle sales climbed in January, snapping a year-end slump for Detroit's Big Three.

However, an executive at Ford Motor Co. said that most of the industry's gains came from increased deliveries of vehicles to fleet customers, rather than purchases by retail customers. George Pipas, head of Ford's sales analysis, estimated that the industrywide sales increase was likely in the range of 65,000 vehicles, but 50,000 to 55,000 of that total was probably attributable to fleet sales to customers such as car-rental agencies and government bodies.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 3:02:16 PM

Looks like T. Boone Pickens called off the dogs!

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 3:01:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 3:01:25 PM

Volume breadth +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.33:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 2:44:12 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $60.13 -3.68% ... Now 15-minute interval chart, add in those WEEKLY Pivot Levels! Chart Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 2:39:23 PM

QQQQ clears back over the 72 SMA and R1, trying now to break above the descending resistance line connecting today's highs. If it succeeds, next channel resistance is at 42.16-.20. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 2:32:56 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $60.37 -3.29% ... updated chart/trade strategy alert! Here's my chart Link

I want to cover 1/2 of full position short if $60.00 is traded. $60.10 is good too.

Mindset at this point is that while I, perhaps we do believe "crack spread" is narrowing, it only brings profit taking from bulls after very nice bull run.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 2:05:23 PM

Crude oil drops to a session low at 67.275, natgas -.325 at 8.99. Crude oil chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 2:03:32 PM

QQQQ found support 41.80 and has bounced back to the 72 SMA at 41.97. A failure here would roll the 30 min channel, the 60 min already ticking lower- but of course, the short cycle indicators are climbing, still a recipe for yet more net sideways chop. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 1:55:30 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) ... Here's the most recent chart I displayed in the 01/25/06 1:49:40 AM MM Link ... Here's what VLO did since then Link .

See that "spike low" 5 sessions ago? When I drag up my PINK 0% to Monday's close, the 38.2% slides right up to $56.81 and marks that low. 19.1% is now at $60.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 1:47:05 PM

Valero (VLO) $61.00 -2.27% ... "softening up a bit." Buyers were steady earlier today at that 01/23/06 high close of $61.17 (previously shown chart in MM).

Last night, I did "drag up" my PINK 0% retracement to Monday's all-time high close of $63.20. Still a "yellow zone" from $54.84-$55.44.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 1:35:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... In all honesty, I should have profile only 1/2 bearish position in VLO today. Stock has traded an all-time this week and overhead supply is very limited.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 1:27:42 PM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 1:19:35 PM

I'm having a heck of a time with my computer today. I can't free up enough memory to pull up a daily interval bar chart session, or an option chain.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 1:18:11 PM

Natural Gas futures ... A few minutes ago one of CNBC's reporters said she had heard some chatter the T. Boone Pickins was covering some big short positions in the Nat. Gas complex.

Short covering was the first thing I thought of as winter temperatures have been unseasonably warm.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 1:15:50 PM

Session high for crude oil here at 68.925, natgas +.40 at 9.72. QQQQ is revisiting the range low. Bears need to see a failure of pivot support at 41.90, 10 cents below which is the flattened 30 min channel bottom. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 1:14:56 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... The "tail of the inchworm" is really holding steady today. Note the lack of new lows at both major exchanges.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 1:03:45 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 12:37:35 PM

Steeping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 12:37:23 PM

Session low for ten year notes here at 108 3/32, TNX now up 4.6 bps to 4.573%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 12:36:43 PM

QQQQ breaks back above the 72 SMA and back above the pennant apex, but the short cycle indicators are back to toppy levels- direction is still up for grabs. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 12:33:26 PM

Volume breadth +1.5:1 on the NYSE, +1.18:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 12:30:52 PM

El Paso Corp. (EP) $13.46 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 12:26:22 PM

Chesapeak Energy (CHK) $35.24 +0.57% Link ... triggered a spread triple top buy signal yesterday at $35.00.

Looks bullish to me and Nat. Gas futures would appear to be confirming the stock's strength.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 12:23:18 PM

March Nat. Gas futures (ng06h) $9.80 +5.19% ... did just get an upside alert at $9.80. This would be a double top buy signal ($0.20 box chart) and first buy signal since this contract gave a double bottom sell signal at $14.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 12:08:31 PM

For what it's worth, and at best that would be with respect to the broad trend only, I see little fundamental-wise to make me bearish on oil. Jeff's P&F chart seems to support that as well. While the President's statement last night was not a moment too soon and, some would argue, long overdue, there's more to making it stick than just political will. As Jim Kunstler has persuasively argued, alternatives to oil are not easy or cheap, and the public has been blinkered as to the severity of the issue. It might have been Cheney who once said that "the American way of life in non-negotiable," and turning that broadly-held sentiment isn't going to be easy in our suburban/easy-motoring landscape. Again, these observations are relevant long-term at best, and on a futures-trading/leveraged basis, the charts are the whole story, and agile traders aren't concerned with the story in any event. I was surprised to see oil green this morning following last night's address.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 12:12:10 PM

Relative Strength chart of Unleaded vs. Crude Oil 0.20 box at this Link ... This would be a chart that I think visually depicts the "crack spread" between Crude Oil and Unleaded Gasoline.

My interpretation would be that refining margins for Unleaded are narrowing and this is something I've noted in recent sessions when looking at the 5-day Net% and 20-day Net% price changes between Crude Oil futures and Unleaded Gasoline futures.

One reason I think we're seeing this narrowing, which may weigh on refiners should it continue, is the "Iran premium" for the lack of a better term, that keeps a firm bid under crude.

On the refining side, today's EIA Percent Utilization of Operable Capacity showed a slight increase to 87.01. A "date of interest" that I need to check against on the Valero Energy (VLO) $61.48 -1.52% chart, is the week of trade after the EIA Dec 23 data was released.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 12:00:51 PM

Most recent oil news I've seen so far. Link Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 11:59:12 AM

Nothing that I've seen. Digging further.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 11:54:58 AM

Continuous Crude Oil ($WTIC) $0.50 box chart as of last night's close at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 11:55:18 AM

Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) $0.01 box chart as of last night's close at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 11:48:01 AM

QQQQ testing pennant support here, right on the 41.90 pivot. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 11:33:48 AM

Looks like a pennant for QQQQ, with price sliding net sideways within the gap and the 30/60 min channels net flat. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 11:20:49 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 11:19:38 AM

Volume breadth +1.05:1 on the NYSE, -1.35:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 11:04:35 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 10:56:50 AM

Bearish swing trade short alert ... shares of Valero Energy (VLO) $61.30 -1.81% here, stop $63.10, target $56.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:55:24 AM

QQQQ filled the gap, ran to 42.10 resistance and has dropped back below the 72 SMA- but the drop has been on dwindling volume, and so far it's only been sufficient to stall but not reverse the short cycle upphase: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 10:50:30 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/1/2006 10:36:58 AM

EIA Weekly Inputs, Operable Capacity and Percent Utilization Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:32:44 AM

From the EIA:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 321.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories jumped by 4.2 million barrels last week, putting them at the upper end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories inched lower by 0.2 million barrels last week, but remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. An increase in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil) inventories was more than compensated by a larger decline in low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel) inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels last week, and remain above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:32:15 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:27:32 AM

Volume breadth goes positive, +1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.05:1 on the Nasdaq. For what it's worth, my gut doesn't trust this move at all, and I don't feel bullish on this tape. But the chart is as unreadable as any I have ever seen, and I have little confidence in my assessment at the moment. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:19:15 AM

Bulls need a break above 42.00 QQQ to stall the 30 min channel downphase. That downphase is uncertain at best, however, and the 60 min channel is flat. With the short cycle opposing the 30 min cycle, there's a decent chance of sideways chop- direction is up for grabs. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:16:26 AM

Volume breadth is up to -1.1:1 on the NYSE, -1.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:12:23 AM

QQQQ bounces off the low, up to a session high at -.11, 42.89. This is the first uptick in the short cycle since yesterday, testing the pivot as I type. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:06:02 AM


10:04am U.S. JAN. ISM PRICE 65.0% VS 63.0% IN DEC.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:04:30 AM

Ten year notes hold a 1 bp gain at 4.537%, steeper against the IRX which is -1.8 bps at 4.352%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 10:02:29 AM






Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 9:59:36 AM

The announces a 5B overnight repo to refund the 2.75B expiring, for a net add of 2.25B. The stop out rate was down to 4.38% on Treasury collateral, 12 bps below the new 4.5% target rate.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 9:54:28 AM

From the Treasury:

The Treasury will auction $21,000 million of 3-year notes, $13,000 million of 10-year notes, and $14,000 million of 30-year bonds to refund $17,281 million of publicly held securities maturing on February 15, 2006, and to raise approximately $30,719 million of new cash.

That's effectively 30.719B that won't be available to the markets- a net drain.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 9:50:18 AM

If this is a rough head and shoulders top, then it projects to the low end of last week's range: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 9:45:00 AM

QQQQ 3 min chart with post/pre-market data filtered out: Link So far, the gap remains unfilled, and the short cycle downphase is only now reaching oversold.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 9:41:38 AM

Volume breadth -1.1:1 on the NYSE, -1.65:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 9:33:29 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 42.03, 30/60 min channel support at 41.75-.80, 30/60 min channel resistance at 42.24 (60 min) and 42.35 (30 min).

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 9:26:10 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles were stalling yesterday afternoon at the midpoints of their ranges, and then GOOG happened. The 30 min cycle indicators have started to track it based on the overnight/premarket trade, but at this point neither indicator is close enough to the action to be reliable at this point. I will post the intraday levels when they refresh at the opening bell.

Jane Fox : 2/1/2006 9:10:39 AM

GOOG hit a low of $350 overnight.

Jane Fox : 2/1/2006 9:10:11 AM

Dateline WSJ A disappointing fourth-quarter earnings report from Wall Street darling Google and the possibility of further rate increases by the Federal Reserve after yesterday's move could spell trouble for stocks Wednesday.

Less than an hour before the New York Stock Exchange opened, futures on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index indicated that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall about 20 points at the open.

Much attention will be on Google, which plunged in after-hours trading Tuesday after the Internet search giant missed analysts' forecasts by a wide margin and left Wall Street scrambling for explanations. In pre-market trading on Inet, shares of Google were off 10%.

"The bloom is off of Google," said Stifel Nicolaus analyst Scott Devitt, who has a "sell" rating on the stock. "Search is still a high-growth business long term and Google is the leader, in our view, but Google shares will likely face a period of consolidation as unrealistic expectations are tempered."

UBS downgraded Google to "neutral" from "buy," due to concerns over international revenue growth and the rising investment needed to potentially improve performance in international markets. UBS said that while it agrees with Google that these markets provide important potential opportunities, it may take "longer than expected to effectively monetize them."

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 8:27:54 AM

Ten year notes have dipped negative, TNX quoted +1.2 bps at 4.539%, steeper against the IRX which is down 1.8 bps to 4.352%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 7:55:31 AM

From the MBA's website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 1, 2006) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 27. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume was 626.8 - a decrease of 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 660.5 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9.1 percent compared with the previous week but was down 12.1 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 8.0 percent to 435.7 from 473.7 the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 1.5 percent to 1747.2 from 1773.9 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 5.9 percent to 924.7 from 982.6 the previous week, and the Government Index, which increased 5.3 percent to 129.9 from 123.4 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is up 3.3 percent to 625.2 from 605.0. The four week moving average is up 1.0 percent to 452.7 from 448.3 for the Purchase Index while this average is up 6.1 percent to 1666.0 from 1570.0 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 43.0 percent of total applications from 42.8 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 30.5 percent of total applications from 29.5 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/1/2006 7:54:46 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1281.5, NQ 1704, YM 10869 and QQQQ -.27 at 41.73. Gold is down 2.7 to 568, silver is down .098 to 9.779, ten year notes are up 3/64 to 108 31/64, crude oil is up .25 to 68.175 and natgas is up .255 to 9.57.

We await the 10AM releases of Construction Spending, est. .2%, the ISM Index, est. 55.5, then at 10:30, the EIA Petroleum report.

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