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OI Technical Staff : 2/2/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 6:11:03 PM

I'm going to knock off a little earlier than usual today. See you in the morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 5:49:01 PM

5:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled down $0.0632, or -3.66% at $1.6656. (see today's 12:26:04 and 12:33:15 posts)

March Crude Oil settled down $1.88, or -2.82% at $64.68.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 5:27:26 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade closed out the El Paso Corp. EP Feb $13 Calls (EP-BO) at the offer of $0.40 ($+0.15, or +27.27%)

Then had a stop for the underlying shares of El Paso Corp. (EP) at $12.90, which did get triggered ($+0.28, or +2.22%) EP went out at $12.98 -2.98%.

Swing traded long 1/2 bullish position in Google (GOOG) at the offer of $404. Stop is $392.00 and target is $420.

Bearish swing trade lowered stop on the remaining 1/2 short in Valero Energy (VLO) to $59.00. Still targeting $56.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 5:07:37 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 4:47:34 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 4:30:23 PM

QQQQ $41.35

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 4:29:18 PM

ISRG ... blah! Lower at $118.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 4:26:15 PM

ISRG new added NDX/QQQQ component ... went out at $127.26 -1.85% , $125.00 extended. Earnings were after the bell. Not sure if they're out yet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 4:23:41 PM

QQQQ went out at $41.43 -1.70% ... $41.35 here in extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 4:19:20 PM

GOOG Daily Pivot Levels for tomorrow by my calculations are ... $388.99, $392.51, Piv= $399.51, $403.03, $410.03.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 4:16:24 PM

Google (GOOG) went out at $396.04 -1.42% ... $396.20 here in extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 4:14:30 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) alert $42.82 -2.63% Link ... lower at $38.15 on headline numbers.

Reuters story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 3:58:00 PM

GOOG $397.43 -1.09% ... traded DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 3:55:18 PM

Google (GOOG) 398.00 -1% ... into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 3:52:51 PM

ISRG Option Montage into the close at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 3:43:57 PM

Need to step away for the day. Daily chart of QQQQ at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 3:38:03 PM

Volume breadth slightly less weak, -3.1:1 on the NYSE, -2.25:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 3:34:11 PM

Google (GOOG) 60-minute interval chart I'm looking at. Basing bullish trade on at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 3:27:24 PM

Google Trade adjustment alert ... I'm going to adjust stop and target on this afternoon's SWING TRADE LONG position, but I want to make sure traders know this is based on a $5000.00 investment (1/2 of $10,000.00 being "full position") I don't know if have a big hitter out there trading 1,000 shares as full. I doubt it, but I want to make sure.

A $5,000.00 bullish position. Let's trade our retracement work and give more room. Lower stop to $392. From $404 entry, that's $12.00 risk/share, or 2.97%, say 3% RISK to STOP.

I do think there is a shot at $420.00 still, but I know I need strength above WEEKLY S1 and our PINK 19.1%. Energy prices are falling, some near-term bullish psychology perhaps.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 3:26:19 PM

Price is hugging the 72 SMA here within the flattened 30 min channel. Sometimes, at the top or bottom of a 60 min cycle, we see price flatline for hours as the big channel makes its slow turn. That could be happening here- except that neither the 30 nor 60 min cycle are deeply oversold, and with the daily cycle whipsawing down early in its own upphase at a lower price high this week, I'm more inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the bears.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 3:14:26 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 3:03:25 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

QQQQ sets up for test of WEEKLY S1.

GOOG $402.63

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:56:29 PM

Stepping away.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:49:08 PM

QQQQ 3 min chart, flipping from bullish to bearish in under 10 cents on the wavelet swings. But the longer cycles suggest a downward resolution- the 30/60 and daily upphases all aborted early, in what I interpret to be the first sign of the weekly cycle downphase finally starting to assert itself. Intraday chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:46:30 PM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 403.33 +0.38% ... inches green!

Airline Index XAL.X 51.65 +1.45% only other equity-based index I show green.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:45:12 PM

Very welcome.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:39:07 PM

Thanks for checking Jonathan (per 02:22:09)

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:36:51 PM

Trigger long alert ... for 1/2 bullish in GOOG $404.00.

My PUT highlights NOT overly bullish. Bull would rather have seen dnTick outnumber upTick on those 390's.

1/2 positions only, look for the turn.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:35:03 PM

Volume breadth back to -3.45:1 on the NYSE, -2.36:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:33:12 PM

Google Montage at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:29:48 PM

New sessiolow for GE, inching its way lower, now -.22 at 32.92.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:27:01 PM

Some traders prefer to go long simply by buying the stock (or future contract, if available), and then use puts for shorts- due to that volatility drag.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:25:41 PM

Quick GOOG call notes ... while I think GOOG is looking higher, CALL BUYERS need to be cognizant that even though stock is up a bit, most calls are down a bit as volatility declines.

Also understand VXN and VIX. I've traded the "right direction" to the upside before with calls when premiums were high and even though the stock rose, the decline in volatility left me very unhappy.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:22:09 PM

I might be missing it, but IB doesn't seem to offer tick info among its gazillion settings: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:21:48 PM

I'm going to shut down my QCharts, then bring them back up.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:20:01 PM

Seeing if I can reconfigure my IB option trader window- a few seconds.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:19:24 PM

The short cycle upphase has stalled again for the Qs and is rolling over after a very weak, corrective attempt on range resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:19:05 PM

Jonathan ... would you happen to have up/down tick measures? No problem if you don't, just trying to see if there is a sell bias on the puts. I'm getting up/down tick volumes for the calls.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:17:46 PM

GOOG options delayed: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:16:54 PM

Front month GOOG ptuts (live). Link Delayed full chain coming up.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:15:56 PM

Oh... OK Jonathan. Thank you!

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:15:33 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 bullish position in Google Inc. (GOOG) $403.14 +0.33% ... on a trade at $404.00. Stop $400, target $415.00

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:15:25 PM

Coming up Jeff.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 2:11:11 PM

Jonathan alert! Do you have access to an option chain for GOOG with February PUT dn/up tick? I'm getting the calls, but not getting the PUT side.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 2:08:06 PM

New session low for crude oil, -1.95 at 64.60 with 23 minutes left in the session. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 1:54:09 PM




Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 1:49:54 PM

QQQQ comes in for a test of the 72 SMA for the first time since breaking below it just after 10AM. Above that level, the 30 min cycle downphase will stall, and the bulls will have confirmation for a new short cycle upphase already underway. Next confluence resistance is just above at 41.67: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 1:45:36 PM

From the Treasury website:

The Treasury will auction 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills totaling $37,000 million to refund an estimated $34,458 million of publicly held 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills maturing February 9, 2006, and to raise new cash of approximately $2,542 million.

This is the equivalent of a net drain of 2.542B of funds that would otherwise be available to the markets. As noted earlier this week, anticipated Treasury borrowing will be stepping up to record levels over the coming months. All things being equal, the new supply will drain liquidity to the markets, and should exert a drag on equity and treasury markets.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 1:32:23 PM

Volume breadth -3.42:1 on the NYSE, -2.25:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 1:23:50 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 1:20:07 PM

Session lows for crude oil at 65.225 and GE at 32.98 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 1:12:34 PM

EP-BO are $0.30 x $0.40. 208 contracts have traded so far today with low $0.35 and high of $0.55.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 1:10:45 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for El Paso Corp. (EP) $12.90 -3.58%

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 1:09:35 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 1:04:48 PM

Today's sharp drop shows this morning's bad tick to QQQQ 41. This week's range at a lower high could be a short right shoulder on a broad head and shoulders top, the right shoulder starting at the end of November. The neckline would be between 40 and 41, my best guess at 40.45-.50ish, but it's just a guess. The broader observation is that this could be a complex top in the works- the early rollover on the daily cycle upphase (middle oscillator pane) is saying that the daily cycle upphase is laboring against a downward tide in the weekly timeframe. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 1:02:06 PM

El Paso (EP) $12.95 -3.13% ... updated bar chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 12:52:47 PM

Crude oil has recovered 45 cents off the 65.375 low, last at 65.825. Today's failed bounce confirmed resistance at the bottom of this week's range. 200 tick chart of QM at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:47:55 PM

EP $12.99 -2.91%

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:47:33 PM

Let's do the same (12:41:03) for my MM Profiles ...

Swing trade buy back covered calls alert ... Buy back the four (4) El Paso Corp. EP Feb. $13 Calls (EPBO) at the offer of $0.40.

Keep stop on underlying at $12.90.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 12:43:50 PM

Session low for GE here, -.14 at 33.00. QQQQ's back below the reverse right shoulder, and so even on a short cycle basis, there's little in the way of bullish indications or patterns. The wavelet is turning up, but so far the bounces have been corrective and brief.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:42:48 PM

El Paso (EP) ... WEEKLY Pivot $13.29, WEEKLY S1 $12.94.

However, we've slipped below the $13.08-$13.23 zone again.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 12:41:07 PM

Volume breadth holds -3.3:1 on the NYSE, -2.45:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:41:03 PM

El Paso (EP) alert $12.99 -2.91% ... I just bought back my Feb. $13 Calls (EPBO) for $0.40.

Now I have a stop set on the underlying at $12.90.

Would be nice to get the "oversold bounce" from here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:37:08 PM

QQQQ $41.50 -1.54% ... beautiful trade setup today and boy did it crack when DAILY S1 and WEEKLY Pivot correlation was broken.

GOOG $403.04 +0.32%, which got whacked from Tuesday's close, holding steady.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:33:15 PM

The reason I'm showing March Unleaded is so "refiner stock traders" get the observation of the dynamics at play.

Crack spread pressure as Unleaded declines and shows some technical weakness.

Then you've got oil, while somewhat weak, holding more of an "Iran premium." It is as if market participants don't want to give up their crude oil hedge. Meanwhile, refiners in a tough position as refined product prices fall.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 12:31:40 PM





Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:26:04 PM

March Unleaded (hu06h) updated chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 12:15:22 PM

Possible reverse h&s pattern for QQQQ here, but any potential bullishness is on a short cycle basis only. Link The 30/60 min cycles are at the outsets of their downphases here, and have room to run.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:14:43 PM

VLO 15-minute interval chart Link (goes with 12:13:25)

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:13:25 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $58.30 -2.24% ... 15-minute interval chart where I added today's DAILY S2, S1 and Pivot.

Should see trade at WEEKLY S1, but after seeing trade at WEEKLY R1, computers should be set for some buying at WEEKLY S1.

Unless ... computers are using the "crack spread" as a measure to dump more stock on trade at $57.35. That's when bears look to get there target. On the "dump."

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 12:04:22 PM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert ... Let's lower the stop the the Valero (VLO) $58.20 -2.24% short to $59.00. Still targeting $56.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 11:58:50 AM

March Unleaded -3.46% , March Crude Oil -1.51% (30-minute delayed) ... VLO $58.18 -2.44%

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 11:43:34 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Raised stop on EP to $12.90. See trade strategy update at 11:03:47

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 11:38:30 AM

El Paso (EP) $13.02 -2.69% ... EP-BO are bid/ask $0.40 x $0.45 here.

If EP were to trade stop of $12.90, thinking the covered calls $0.30 x $0.40 or so?

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 11:21:48 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

QQQQ/Nasdaq swing trader notes NH/NL ratios. Makes the tie with recent highs. Perhaps $42.11 or MONTHLY Pivot!

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 11:07:20 AM

11:04 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 11:04:43 AM

Volume breadth down to -2.55:1 on the NYSE, -1.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 11:03:47 AM

Swing trade long/covered call trade update alert ... Let's raise a stop on the underlying EP Corp (EP) $13.16 -1.64% shares to $12.90.

If traded, stop the underlying, then buy back the calls. Or buy back the calls, then close out the stock depending on how your trading account is set up!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 11:02:11 AM

15-min multiday chart of QQQQ at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 11:01:20 AM

SPY alert $127.40 ... below 01/26/06 MM large block observation.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 11:00:03 AM

Valero (VLO) $58.38 -2.11% ... session lows! Has shown ability to provide spectacular declines when 21-day SMA is broken.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:58:37 AM

March Unleaded (hu06h) alert ... Important levels of support here at $1.69. Settlement below this level would be deemed BEARISH. Then vulnerable to $1.665.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:57:39 AM

So far, the bounce off the lows is on decreasing volume for the Qs- 1st sign of trouble for bears will be a break back above 41.80-.82: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:50:43 AM

QQQQ $41.68 -1.11% ...

GOOG $402.22 +0.13% ... giving back gains.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:46:33 AM

Volume breadth -1.9:1 on the NYSE, -1.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:45:15 AM

Unleaded -1.15% ... Crude Oil -0.46% (30-minute delayed)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:39:23 AM

For the Qs, 30 and 60 min channel support look to coincide with 41.71- but again, these channels are just starting to roll over. The most bullish bulls would target that area. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:36:41 AM

QQQQ tests 41.80 support. The short cycles are bottomy, but the early rollover for the 30/60 min cycles could spell trouble. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:34:56 AM

El Paso (EP) $13.22 -1.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:34:27 AM

Valero (VLO) $59.00 -1.07% .... session low has been $58.58.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:32:54 AM

GOOG/QQQQ .... OK ... GOOG kisses Daily R1, QQQQ Daily S1.

Opposite ends of the Day trader's spectrum. Direction of one dictates to the other.

If QQQQ breaks lower, then got to thing GOOG Daily R1 resistance.

Tab Gilles : 2/2/2006 10:31:39 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Daily and weekly charts rolling over. Reported last night. Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:31:21 AM

EIA Weekly Nat Gas Inventory Table Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:31:04 AM

Natgas -.365 here at 8.36

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:30:27 AM

Google (GOOG) $406.03 +1% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:30:22 AM

From the EIA website:

Working gas in storage was 2,406 Bcf as of Friday, January 27, 2006, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 88 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 296 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 529 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,877 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 288 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 55 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 164 Bcf above the 5-year average of 558 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 17 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 77 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 16 Bcf. At 2,406 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:29:59 AM

I added additional notes to earlier GOOG montage.

See QQQQ did trade $41.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:29:57 AM

Natgas -.325 at 8.40 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:29:21 AM

QQQQ update at this Link showing channel support starting at S1. Confluence support starts just above it. Above that level, it looks like more chop as the ambiguous 30/60 min cycles work out the kinks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:28:55 AM

Apex Silver (AMEX:SIL) $16.32 +2.25% ... looks bullish for a 1/2 swing. Stop under $15.25, target the highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:25:28 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) alert $58.62 -1.60% ....

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:21:17 AM

Stepping away for 5 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:17:55 AM

Ten year note yields hold a small .4 bp gain at 4.565%, IRX -.5 bps at 4.357%. Seems that the 2 8:30 economic reports have offset each other, bonds holding flat. Awaiting the EIA natgas report at 10:30, with natgas futures -.345 at 8.38 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:12:19 AM

Valero (VLO) $59.00 -1.07% ... session high came at $60.00, right at our PINK 19.1%.

Today's conventional DAILY Pivot Levels ... $56.63 (would cover here, ties with PINK $56.81), $58.06, Piv= $60.42, $61.85, $64.22.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:07:23 AM

QQQQ holds below the 72 SMA and the pivot, but volume breadth is a mere -1.01:1 on the Nasdaq. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:03:34 AM

Valero (VLO) $59.09 -0.92% ... rising 21-day SMA at $58.81. Session low has been $58.89.

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:02:20 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $89.13 -3.79% ... refiner slips below retracement "zone of support" $89.50-$90.34. Rising 21-day SMA at $88.76.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 10:02:17 AM

Session high for GE, +.03 at 33.17.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 9:59:56 AM

The Fed has 13B in repos expiring this AM and added 8B via 14-day repo, followed up just now with a 7.5B overnight. Notwithstanding the 2.5B net add, the stopout rate rose to 4.45%, 5 bps below the target, showing that the Fed's dealers were willing to pay more for the money this morning that previously this week.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 9:52:54 AM

It looks early for a 60 min cycle downphase, but the 30 min cycle up has already stalled. A failure here would be very bearish on that basis, while a bounce would complete those upphases. My guess at resistance on a terminal bounce for the 30/60 min cycles would be the 42.30 area max- the cycle channels currently top below 42.25 but could move higher on a strong enough bounce. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/2/2006 10:22:56 AM

Google Option Montage with updated OI Link

Option Montage shown last night Link

Quick Notes:

1st: Notable rise in OI for the $370 Puts. Give or take yesterday's AvgOHLC of $5.00 to get important near-term support of $365-$375. These did have a DnTick bias yesterday, so I'd add the $5 to get $375.

2nd: $400 Puts ... Slight DnTick bias yesterday with AvgOHLC of $17.00 yesterday. $420 + $17 = $437 MAX rise to Feb. expire.


Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 9:42:32 AM

Volume breadth -1.4:1 on the NYSE, -1.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 9:37:40 AM

QQQQ tests the 72 SMA and pivot here, the toppy short cycle indicators rolling over: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 9:33:26 AM

Volume breadth is -1.2:1 on the NYSE, +1.25:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 9:31:22 AM

QQQQ has 72 SMA support at 41.98, 30/60 min channel support at 41.75-41.83, 30/60 min channel resistance at 42.20-.25.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 9:27:10 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle upphase has stalled early and is ticking lower from below overbought, while the 60 min cycle upphase continues- this is the same choppy setup that yielded the trendless action yesterday. Hopefully the short cycle and SMA/channel levels will shed some light when the data refreshes at the opening bell.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 8:41:32 AM

Session high for gold, +3.20 at 572.80, ten year notes down slightly with TNX now up 1.2 bps at 4.573Z%, steepening against IRX down .5 bps at 4.357%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 8:35:36 AM

QQQQ holds -.13 at 42.02, ten year notes -1/16 to 108 1/4, TNX +.6 bps to 4.569%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 8:33:45 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time seasonally adjusted claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 11,000 to 273,000 in the week ending Jan. 28, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims fell by 4,750 to 284,250, the lowest since June 2000. The number of people collecting state unemployment benefits fell by 64,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2.5 million in the week ending Jan. 21, the lowest since February 2001. The four-week average of continuing claims fell by about 46,000 to 2.58 million. The insured unemployment rate - the percentage of those workers covered by unemployment insurance who are actually collecting - fell to 1.9% from 2%, the lowest rate since February 2001.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 8:33:23 AM

Initial claims -11K to 273K vs. 295K exp., prior revised from 283k to 284K

Preliminary Productivity -.6% vs. 1% exp., prior revised from 4.7% to 4.5%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 8:28:48 AM

Ten year bonds hold a light gain, TNX quoted -.4 bps at 4.557%, a touch flatter than IRX, down .7 bps at 4.355%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/2/2006 8:01:22 AM

Equities are down, ES trading 1282.75, NQ 1717, YM 10952 and QQQQ -.14 to 42.01. Gold is up .40 to 570, silver is up .096 to 9.891, ten year notes +3/64 at 108 15/64 and crude oil is down .425 at 66.125.

We await the 8:30 release of initial claims, est. 295K, and preliminary Q4 Productivity, est. 1%. At 10:30, it's the EIA Natural gas storage report.

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