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Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:15:04 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/3/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 7:36:11 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart found at this Link

NASDAQ Summation Index ($NASI) 10-point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 6:39:31 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade bullish stopped on Google (GOOG) at $392.00 ($-12.00, or -2.97%)

Swing trade bearish stopped on Valero Energy (VLO) at $59.00 ($+2.30, or +3.75%).

Swing traded short 1/2 position in shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) at the bid of $37.43. Stop currently $39.20 to begin, targeting $35.50. (see 01:32:05 and 01:38:03)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 6:39:22 PM

Greenspan Painting ... bidding closed! Goes out at $150,400.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 6:39:14 PM

QQQQ $40.92 -1.23% ... triple correlation support alert!

With conventional MONTHLY Pivot analysis S1 ($40.34), next week's WEEKLY S1 ($40.36) and previously shown 10/12/05 close to 01/11/06 close 50% retracement of $40.345.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 6:32:31 PM

02:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled $0.0161, or 0.97% at $1.6817.

March Crude Oil settled up $0.69, or 1.07% at $65.37.

Friday-Friday settlements had Unleaded falling 7.09%, while Crude Oil fell 3.53%.

Colder temperatures forecasted for early next week Link and may bring some short covering into the Nat. Gas/Heating Oil complex like I do believe we saw at times this week, expecially in Nat. Gas.

Keene Little : 2/3/2006 4:10:14 PM

Jon, just caught your 3:28 post. Excellent explanation, thanks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 3:54:32 PM

AMZN $38.30 -10.38% Link ... doing its best impression of GOOG's Link post-earnings-day session.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 3:35:34 PM

Weekly chart of QQQQ at this Link , in what looks like the opening stages of a broader rollover.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 3:35:33 PM

QQQQ $40.83 -1.44% ... might be enough time left for a WEEKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 3:33:23 PM

SPY $126.40 -0.40% ... slips back below that large block observation level.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 3:33:17 PM

Here comes the test of the 40.80 cluster of support: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 3:28:37 PM

Further to Keene's comments, the inflation/deflation debate is fascinating and addictive. I think the standard deflationist argument is that in a true debt deflation along the lines of a Kondratieff winter, cash becomes scarce. While most debtors have fixed payments denominated in their home currency, the value of the cash in which that debt is denominated rises to the point that it becomes prohibitive to service the debt. A wave of defaults results in decreasing prices across the board, which results in more otherwise solvent debtors being unable to maintain their income levels, and more debt becomes unserviceable, and the cycle feeds on itself. In such an environment, economic activity slows as cash becomes scarce. Presumably, that scarce cash is no longer as ready to bid the prices of even default-free assets, such as commodities, and so the price of even oil, gold, etc. also would fall- not only due to diminishing demand, but also because cash has become scarce/ risen in value.

That's not a prediction- just exploring that aspect of the deflationist thinking. My own guess is more in line with what Mauldin once wrote about muddling-through.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 3:25:30 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 3:19:28 PM

Crude oil closed up .70 at 65.375, recovering in the final minutes back to within yesterday's range: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 3:05:54 PM

AMZN $37.81 -11.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 3:05:15 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.03, SPY 126.55, QQQQ $40.93

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 3:03:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 3:02:48 PM

Volume breadth has recovered to -1.3:1 on the NYSE, -2.6:1 on the Nasdaq, stronger than at other points today relative to price.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 2:57:45 PM

QQQQ $40.92 -1.23% ... session high came at conventional DAILY S1.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 2:54:27 PM

Back to find the Qs back to the session lows. All of my intraday indicators cluster up at 40.80, which should be substantial support below. Bulls should be sweating over the lack of an oversold bounce today, given the broader daily and weekly downturns- the lack of an intraday bounce tells us that those longer term downphases are for real. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 2:47:05 PM

C'mon sellers ... flush it! AMZN $37.88 -11.37%

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 2:46:03 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $58.90 +1.23% ... Low/high for session has been $57.50-$59.40

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 2:38:57 PM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $57.86 +4.81% Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 2:37:02 PM

Volatile intra-day session for energy prices. All over the place!

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 2:23:02 PM

Pressure building alert ... BOT $105.55 +2.47% ... critical "zone of resistance" for bears between $105.40-$106.75.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 2:10:37 PM

Intel (INTC) Weekly Interval chart with "bull fit 38.2%" dating clear back to my "greatest bull market" comments in late 2002! Chart Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 2:10:23 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 2:06:26 PM

Actually guys, I think it was reader "Guitar" Geroge re-positioning some of his royalty money :)

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 2:00:09 PM

INTC $20.91 -0.90% ... notable 52-weeker at the NASDAQ. Most active behind the QQQQ too.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:58:51 PM

MSFT $27.59 -0.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:57:58 PM

GOOG 383.25

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:54:37 PM

QQQQ $41.10

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 1:53:29 PM

Just a wavelet downphase and a preliminary short cycle rollover so far. If the Qs are going to bounce it should be from above 41.02. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:50:36 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) bar chart per 01:32:05 Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 1:38:03 PM

Despite the break of the 72 SMA and the ensuing pop to 41.23, the 30 min channel hasn't turned up yet for QQQQ. But a sideways drift at the highs here will be sufficient as the indicators catch up to the price move. The short cycle upphase peaked on that move, but it trends easily- bears need to push back here, failing which a gap fill looks imminent. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:32:05 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $37.92 -11.30% ... I've been looking for an "explanation" as to why AMZN's session low has been $37.37.

If I take a retracement from the 08/02/05 close to the 04/27/05 close, I would get a 61.8% retracement of $37.37.

Now... If I also take a retracement from the recent highs of $50.00 to that 04/27/05 intra-day low of $30.60, I get a 61.8% at $38.01.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:24:52 PM

Was just looking at the NASDAQ-100 Heatmap Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:24:00 PM

Good Gravy! ... ISRG $124.37 -2.27% ... after cash session low of $111.37

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:19:52 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... I made note of this morning's "lack of NHs." I'll now make note that NLs also lacking!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 1:18:47 PM

The break above the 72 SMA gives QQQQ's 30 min cycle a bullish bias for the first time today- but of course, it also runs the short cycle upphase toward overbought, the wavelet peaking here as I type. 41.20 still looks like substantial resistance here- above that, there an open gap to 41.40. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 1:15:38 PM

Crude oil is down to a session low here, -.55 at 64.125, new low for the week: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:05:27 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 1:05:19 PM

QQQQ rises to test declining 72 SMA resistance for the first time today. A break above 42.02 sets up the possibility of a test of 41.20 resistance, the current level of the 30 min channel top: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 1:01:47 PM

QQQQ Feb/March Option Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 12:56:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/3/2006 12:43:17 PM

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 12:42:56 PM

Volume has fallen off here as price holds at/below 41.00. The short cycle upphase is in the process of reversing, while the broader 30/60 min cycle indicators are in trending moves. Although today's fast drop took place pre-market, it's remarkably similar to yesterday's move- a quick drop, followed by an opex-type sideways range: Link

Jane Fox : 2/3/2006 12:38:20 PM

Part Duex Equity-only put-call ratios, however, remain positive. While the standard ratio (Figure 2) toyed with a sell signal recently, it keeps making the occasional new low, which keeps it on a buy signal (declining put-call ratios are bullish for the broad market). Meanwhile, the weighted ratio (Figure 3) has not even flinched recently as it continues to plunge on its chart. While the declining weighted ratio is certainly bullish, it should be noted that it's quite low on its chart and is thus overbought.

Market breadth had been strong as well, until Thursday. The massive number of declines, as compared to advances, on that day has thrown our breadth indicators into sell signals.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have been the most bearish of our indicators for some time. Figure 4 shows that $VIX has been in an uptrend since mid-December and -- despite the spike peak and subsequent decline in late January -- still is. At the very least, the rise in $VIX is justified in light of the number of 100-point moves we're seeing in the Dow these days. Since late December, there have been 7 days in which the Dow moved by more than 90 points. Prior to that, there had only been one such day in December and one in November. So volatility is increasing, that's for certain. Whether that is a negative indicator for the broad market can be debated, but it usually is bearish.

In summary, our indicators have taken on a more bearish tone, but are not in agreement that a top has been formed. However, a violation of the 1260 level by $SPX should raise caution flags -- it certainly will for us.

Jane Fox : 2/3/2006 12:34:44 PM

Link

Jane Fox : 2/3/2006 12:33:14 PM

Here is Larry McMillan's weekly commentary. It is long this week so I will break it into two parts. Despite Thursday's negative action and the rather lackluster trading all week, full-fledged sell signals have not yet taken place for the broad market. $SPX did fall below its 20-day moving average, which is certainly a negative development. However, if you look at the chart in Figure 1, (chart to follow) you'll see that there are perhaps some more important support areas on the chart. The first is the trend line that extends back to the October lows. It has not been violated yet, although $SPX touched it on Thursday. Furthermore -- and this is the one that I believe many traders are watching -- the January lows at 1260 are perhaps the most important support level. Those have not been violated. If $SPX closes below there, then a negative series of lower lows (Jan low and the subsequent violation of that) and lower highs (1295 in early January and 1288 in later January) will have developed. That is often the beginning of a trend -- a trend downwards it would be. Finally, the December lows at 1245 offer further support -- although by that time the market might have quite a negative head of steam and blow right through there.

I should mention that there is a 'buy the dip' crowd -- or 'trading range' crowd, if you prefer -- that is looking at every decline as a buying opportunity. Somewhere this year, the Teflon nature of this market will disintegrate, and a 10% correction will occur. There hasn't been one since early 2003 (nearly 3 years) and that's getting to be a historically long time between such moves. This is a general statement, for we have no indication that the current decline is the harbinger of a 10% move, but we just feel that a 'sell the rally' mentality is more apropos than a 'buy the dip' one. By the way, a 10% correction would be a decline of 125 $SPX points -- no small matter!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 12:24:21 PM

Volume breadth -1.45:1 on the NYSE, -3.45:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 12:19:05 PM

Volume never did pick up to confirm a break out on the reverse h&s. Bears need another 5 cent drop to invalidate the reverse h&s- could still be gathering bullish steam, with the wavelet trying to bottom here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 12:11:05 PM

Lockheed Martin (LMT) $68.81 +1.01% Link ... I think there was news yesterday of "Patriot Act" being extended.

Rocket Man...

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 12:09:04 PM

Islamic Jihad said it fired a rocket which landed on the Israeli kibbutz near the Gaza Strip Friday, wounding a 7-month-old baby, his fater and another adult.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 11:56:16 AM

Sport-Haley (SPOR) $5.49 +8.07% ... thinly traded small cap jumps after saying it received notification from NASDAQ that it is in compliance with continued listing requirements.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 11:49:11 AM

Volume doesn't confirm a reverse h&s breakout here, though the short cycle has un-stalled and is back in its upphase, though with limited room to run. 42.20 still looks like it could present a problem for the bulls- now coinciding with 72 SMA resistance as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 11:47:28 AM

Good Gravy! ... GOOG $385.90 -2.57% ... after breaking below WEEKLY S2, plunged right to our BLUE 50% of $372.82.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 11:39:14 AM

Volume breadth up to -1.4:1 on the NYSE, -3.05:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ tests reverse h&s neckline resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 11:25:55 AM

Swing trade bearish stop alert on the remaining Valero Energy (VLO) $59.00

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 11:22:44 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link ... Check out the lack of NHs you QQQQ Mar $43 Put (QQQ-OQ) longs.

I'll update the NASDAQ NH/NL ratio chart this evening.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 11:16:53 AM

Closeup of Mark's reverse h&s pattern on QQQQ today- though it appears out of synch with the short cycle oscillators. Below 40.93-.95, I will be violated on a right shoulder failure. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 11:09:21 AM

Volume breadth back down to -2.25:1 on the NYSE, -4:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 11:06:03 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 11:02:59 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $37.49 ... Option Montage snapshot just after bearish profile at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 10:59:29 AM

Big recovery for ten year treasuries, TNX down to a 1 bp gain at 4.571%, well off its highs above 4.6%. IRX holds a 1 bp gain at 4.372%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 10:54:18 AM

The short cycle is taking the first steps of its first upphase today, still holding below the gap and not yet challenging the curent 41.13 high. 41.20 remains key resistance for bears, being the multiday triangle support line that broke this AM. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 10:40:50 AM

Volume breadth -3:1 on the NYSE, -4.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:40:18 AM

Swing trade short alert ... for 1/2 position in Amazon.com (AMZN) $37.44 here, stop $39.20, target $35.50

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:37:37 AM

Sorry folks ... I was looking at the $40 Calls, which were priced at $1.25 bid.

If the $40 Puts had been $1.25 it would have been "sold to you against QQQQ $42"....

The QQQQ Feb $40 Puts just $0.20 x $0.25

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 10:34:10 AM

A quick look at the 60 min NQ future shows a support break that could be the first crack (on high volume) of a bearish triangle. The 30 min cycle is already trending in oversold, while the 60 should here is looking for its next upphase. NQ needs to regain 1680, QQQQ roughly 41.20. Below that, this is a bearish pattern playing out. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:32:46 AM

What do you think the QQQQ Feb $40 Puts are going for right now?

I don't know, but I'll check. What would it take for you to sell them?

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:31:12 AM

QQQQ ... Chart Montage of the day! Conventional use of high/low close on the top and MONTHLY/WEEKLY Pivot retracement on the bottom at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 10:21:47 AM

TGIF.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 10:15:02 AM

A wavelet upphase is reaching the top of its range here for the Qs, but the short cycle has not yet turned up. Jeff, I agree re: the volume, although the flipside is that "climactic" selling punctuated by high volume generates cash with which to bid the markets back up. Some of the bears I know prefer low volume selloffs because they free up less money while destroying more wealth. I've never settled the debate for myself- but clearly, selling is very heavy this AM.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:13:15 AM

That sounds bearish Jonathan (10:22:22)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 10:11:22 AM

Volume breadth -2.75:1 on the NYSE, -3.7:1 on the Nasdaq here. Big volume overall for QQQQ at 38.8M shares so far, compared with 89M for the entire day yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:09:17 AM

GOOG ... notable Feb. call selling bias from $420 and higher

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:06:31 AM

Google (GOOG) $386.77 -2.40% ... after testing WEEKLY S2.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 10:04:08 AM

Headline:

10:03am U.S. JAN. ISM SERVICES PRICES STEADY AT 67.2% FROM DEC.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 10:04:02 AM

GOOG Option Observations ... 2/02/06 Jeff,

Thanks for the in-depth GOOG analysis. I am sure glad I did not risk more than 2% of my account on the earnings play. I think the "house" got burned last GOOG earnings so this time was a different story.

I am fascinated by these amazing facts from the GOOG options table:

After earnings the Implied Volatility for ATM calls dropped from around 65% to 42%

The Option Investor Feb 450 Call / Feb 420 Put strangle broke even IF you had sold the put at the 387 low of the day, a 45 point drop.

Yesterday's Feb 430 ATM call lost $23.50. Yesterday's Feb 430 ATM put only gained $9.30.

Yesterday's 40 points OTM Feb 390 Put closed down 20 cents at 9.20 while GOOG closed down 30.93 points. Yesterday's 40 points OTM Feb 470 Call closed down -$11.30 to a price of 1.10.

Yesterday the ATM Feb 430 Call was $22.70. Today the ATM Feb 400 Call is only $15.90.

It reminds me of how the inflated Altria (MO) premiums went up in smoke immediately after the verdict was announced!

Peter

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:55:59 AM

A 1.75B weekend repo from the Fed vs. 7.5B expiring results in a net drain of 5.75B for the day. The stopout rate rose 1bp to 4.46%. So far, Bernanke's Fed is tightening gradually toward its 4.5% overnight target rate.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:48:07 AM

Headlines:

9:48am JAN. FINAL UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT SAID 91.2 VS. 91.5 DEC.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 9:47:01 AM

GOOG Option Montage found at this Link ... I received a very good e-mail from fellow trader that I'll post here in a minute. Addresses Implied Volatility and relatively poor performance of GOOG option trade currently. For me, the trader's observation really focuses on what traders are selling, not what is being bought.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:42:36 AM

Here's the 15-min multiday view of QQQQ- last week's Wednesday's support is now resistance. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:41:30 AM

The short cycle indicators are a buy here, but it's higher than usual risk because of how ugly the last upphase's failure proved to be, my guess is that longs here will be countertrend to a new daily cycle downphase. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:38:32 AM

Volume breadth -2.22:1 on the NYSE, -3.9:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:33:25 AM

If the Qs don't bounce pretty much immediately, we'll be looking at the start of a downside trending move in the longer intraday cycles. Once again, there's reason to fear for bearishness kicking in on the longer timeframes, which is what would be burying these nire sensitive indicators. Daily chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 9:33:02 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for Google (GOOG) $392.00

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:31:25 AM

QQQQ drops well below 30/60 min channel support at 41.30. 72 SMA resistance is at 41.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 9:29:30 AM

Google (GOOG) $396.04 ... ticking $393.40 pre-market. Current bullish swing trade stop is $392. Cash session only.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 9:27:41 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $58.18 .... ticking $58.65 pre-market.

Current swing trade short stop is set at $59.00. Cash session only.

Jane Fox : 2/3/2006 9:23:12 AM

Dateline WSJ An Egyptian passenger ship carrying about 1,300 people sank in the Red Sea overnight during bad weather, and rescue ships arriving at the scene Friday pulled dozens of bodies from the water, an official said. About 100 survivors were rescued, some in lifeboats.

The 35-year-old ship, Al-Salaam Boccaccio 98, went down 40 miles off the Egyptian port of Hurghada, the head of the Egyptian Maritime Authority, Mahfouz Taha Marzouk, told the Associated Press. The cause was unknown. Britain's top naval officer said he had diverted a warship to the north Red Sea site and it will arrive within two days.

Jane Fox : 2/3/2006 9:21:01 AM

Jonathan reported the jobs numbers but here is WSJ take on it. Employers stepped up hiring in January and pushed the nation's unemployment rate to its lowest mark in more than four years, suggesting the economy started the year on stable footing following lackluster growth in 2005's fourth quarter.

The Labor Department said Friday nonfarm payrolls climbed by 193,000 jobs after rising by 140,000 jobs in December and 354,000 in November. Previous estimates showed a 108,000-job increase in December and a 305,000-job gain in November. More than two million payroll jobs were created in the 12 months ending in January.

Meanwhile, the nation's unemployment rate, which is tabulated from a separate report from the payroll figures, fell to 4.7% last month from 4.9% in December, the lowest mark since a 4.6% rate posted in July 2001.

While the payrolls total failed to meet economists' expectations for an increase of around 250,000 jobs, Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics wrote in a note to clients that "this report is much stronger than it first appears," citing improved hiring across business sectors.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:14:19 AM

The USD Index skied higher on my delayed chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:08:44 AM

Big move north in TNX, now up 5 bps to 4.611%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 9:07:13 AM

QQQQ dove to a low of 41.05- could be a terminal move on the 30 min cycle downphase, but the move took place pre-market, without my being able to see its placement in relation to the 30/60 min channels- they will update at the opening bell.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 8:59:53 AM

QQQQ drops to a .18 loss at 41.25, ten year notes down 3/16 to 108- TNX is now up 3 bps at 4.591%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 8:33:03 AM

QQQQ +.10 at 41.53, TNX reversing to a 1.2 bp gain at 4.573%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 8:31:35 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. JAN. SERVICE JOBS RISE BY 135,000

8:30am U.S. JOB GROWTH SEEN IN CONSTRUCTION, RESTAURANTS, HEALTH

8:30am U.S. JAN. LABOR MARKET PARTICIPATION RATE STEADY AT 66.0%

8:30am DROP IN U.S. JOBLESS RATE REFLECTS BENCHMARK REVISIONS

8:30am U.S. JAN. AVERAGE WORKWEEK STEADY AT REVISED 33.8 HOURS

8:30am U.S. JAN. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.4%

8:30am U.S. NOV., DEC. PAYROLLS REVISED HIGHER BY 81,000

8:30am U.S. JAN. JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 4.7%, LOWEST IN 5 YEARS

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 8:21:43 AM

QQQQ has edged up to a 7 cent gain at 41.50, ten year notes holding their earlier gain, TNX -.8 bps at 4.553%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/3/2006 7:50:58 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1274.25, NQ 1692.5, YM 10873 and QQQQ +.01 at 41.44. Gold is down .70 to a session low of 571.70, silver -.028 to 9.843, ten year notes +3/32 to 108 9/32, crude oil +.275 to 64.95 and natgas +.115 to 8.46.

We await the Employment Report at 8:30, Average Workweek est. 33.8, hourly earnings est. .3%, nonfarm payrolls est. 250k, unemployment rate est. 4.9%, then at 9:50, Michigan Sentiment, and at 10AM, Factory Odors, est. 1% and ISM Services, est. 60.

Note that UMichigan Sentiment is now scheduled for 9:50AM. My guess is that it was easier to simply roll back the announcement time by 5 minutes than to get UMich to release the numbers on time- good for a laugh, anyway. I used to watch bonds and stock prices lurch at 9:45 or :46, then wait 2 or 3 minutes for the headline number to reach my ticker.

Jeff Bailey : 2/3/2006 4:20:06 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate and Nat Gas Inventory Table found at this Link

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