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Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:46:05 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.09 +1.45% ... last tick in extended was $19.12.

QQQQ $40.63 -0.44% ... last tick in extended was $40.81

e-mini NASDAQ (nq06h) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:17:59 PM

Swimming in Croc-infested waters can be hazardous to your health Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/7/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 9:49:17 PM

Here's how Chipotle Mex Grill (CMG) traded its first few IPO days. IPO was priced at $24.00, opened $45.00, fell 12.2% in 15 minutes, then finished near highs of the session. Link

CROX is priced at $21.00. It's listed on NASDAQ and should be WILD!

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 9:14:54 PM

IPO tomorrow ... could be a "hot issue." Link

NASDAQ symbol CROX

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 6:21:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity ... Day traded long 1/2 position in the underlying shares of Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) at $106, but were stopped out at $103.50 ($-2.50 per share, or -2.36%)

Swing trade closed out the QQQQ Mar $43 Puts (QQQ-OQ) at the bid of $2.40 ($+0.90 per contract, or +60.00%).

Swing trade put a full position (based on $10,000.00 in the underlying stock of ICE, this would equate to 187 shares, so 2 contracts) in the ICE Feb $50 Puts (ICE-NJ) at the offer of $1.10. Shares of ICE were trading $53.26 at time of profile. No stop, targeting $48.24 (see bar chart at 01:54:41)

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 5:42:13 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 5:12:27 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:55:18 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled down $0.0502, or -3.05% at $1.5940.

March Crude Oil settled down $2.02, or -3.10% at $63.09.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:50:18 PM

QQQQ $40.79 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:49:35 PM

Cisco (CSCO) alert $18.87 extended. This would be above "cash" WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:24:38 PM

CSCO ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $17.34, $17.74, Piv= $18.34, $18.74, $19.34.

Ticking $18.45 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:23:05 PM

Nortel (NT) $3.02 -1.30% ... ticks 2-cents higher at $3.04 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:22:30 PM

Lucent (LU) $2.66 -1.48% .... steady at $2.66 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:20:41 PM

Encore Wire Corp. (WIRE) $28.93 +0.90% ... halted for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:20:12 PM

Blue Nile (NILE) $37.29 -0.05% ... halted for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:16:50 PM

QQQQ .... a trader that may have held his/her March $43 Puts looking for something "extra" on negative CSCO reaction, you could "hedge" with an equal number of shares long the QQQQ, then wait until tomorrow's cash open to see how things pan out.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:14:56 PM

CSCO $18.09 +1.45% ... $18.41 extended.

QQQQ went out at $40.63 -0.44% ... now $40.72 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:13:32 PM

QQQQ ... Large block alert ... seeing 3,000,000 blocked at $40.63 (04:12:31)

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:10:57 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $18.09 +1.45% ...

Earnings Press Release at this Link

Headline numbers are

Q2 Net Sales: $6.6 billion (9.3% increase year over year)

Q2 Net Income: $1.4 billion GAAP (includes stock-based compensation expense of $188 million, net of tax) compared with $1.1 billion for Q2 FY'05, including pro forma stock-based compensation expense; $1.6 billion non-GAAP (pro forma) compared with $1.5 billion for Q2 FY'05

Q2 Earnings Per Share: $0.22 GAAP (includes stock-based compensation expense of $0.03) compared with $0.17 for Q2 FY'05, including pro forma stock-based compensation expense; $0.26 non-GAAP (pro forma) compared with $0.22 for Q2 FY'05

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:07:20 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $107.50, SPY $125.60

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:06:46 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) alert $18.09 +1.45% ... stock gets active at $18.31.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:05:59 PM

CNOOC's CEO DJ - Future China Oil/Gas demand won't rise much vs. now.

Liquified Nat Gas will help meet any additional China energy demand.

CEO's comments refer to China's oil imports.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 4:01:32 PM

I really want to "bite my tongue," but with the QQQQ $40.65, I have to give some credit to bulls. They didn't cave in, though they had just about every opportunity to do so today.

CSCO $18.09 +1.45% ... after the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:58:16 PM

CME $399.73 -4.34% ....

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:57:06 PM

BOT $100.90 -2.98% ... low/high $98.35-$107.43.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 3:55:07 PM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:53:20 PM

ICE $53.40 -4.14% ... "melting" toward the close?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 3:49:23 PM

The short cycle indicators are already overbought, still rising but running out of racetrack. That makes this a dangerous level for new longs except with a wider stop. However, the 30 and 60 min cycles are so overdue for an upphase that it's easy to imagine a trending move up from here. The afterhours news could provide the spark- but still, the daily and weekly cycles are still pointing south. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 3:45:57 PM

QQQQ daily chart at this Link , the doji print exaggerated by the bad ticks to 40.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:44:41 PM

The more you look ... DIA $107.50, SPY $125.50, QQQQ $40.50 you'd think some Feb expiration manipulation takes place. Tends to start about a week out.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:33:34 PM

ICE Option Montage at this Link ... Stock stronger than I would have liked into the close. Would prefer a bearish close below $53.21.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:27:13 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $37.50 -1.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:24:29 PM

For the QQQQ .... way too many "chances" and sell premiums to get our destiny trade.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:23:04 PM

Swing trade put exit alert ... with QQQQ $40.58.

Close the QQQQ Mar $43 Puts (QQQ-OQ) at the bid of $2.40

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 3:14:37 PM

Still no sign of strength from QQQQ, still the sideways drift lower we endured yesterday, still on light volume. Volume breadth holds at -3.35:1 on the NYSE, -1.45:1 on the Nasdaq. Price continues to hold near the 72 SMA- more sidways than down at this point. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:13:35 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.38, SPY $125.40, QQQQ $40.54.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:12:36 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:05:22 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.36, SPY $125.43, QQQQ $40.50

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 3:02:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 3:01:53 PM

Headlines:

3:00pm U.S. 2005 CONSUMER CREDIT RISES 3%, SMALLEST IN 14 YRS.

3:00pm U.S. NOV. CONSUMER CREDIT REVISED TO $567 MLN VS. -$649 MLN

3:00pm U.S. DEC. NONREVOLVING CREDIT RISES $4.3 BILLION, OR 3.8%

3:00pm U.S. DEC. REVOLVING CREDIT DROPS $939 MILLION, OR 1.4%

3:00pm U.S. DEC. CONSUMER CREDIT RISES $3.3 BILLION, OR 1.9%

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 2:54:42 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.46, SPY $125.48, QQQQ $40.50.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 2:48:31 PM

Computer Technology Index (XCI.X) 716.71 +0.17% ... still holding green.

QQQQ $40.55 -0.63% ... as "the most important hour of the trading day approaches!"

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 2:30:15 PM

QQQQ is testing 72 SMA reistance here at 40.62, breaking it as I type. Every such attempt has failed within 20-30 minutes during the past 4 sessions. 30 min cycle downphase stalls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 2:29:16 PM

QQQQ $40.64 -0.41% ... quick "pop" higher here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 2:23:46 PM

Still no sign of strength for the Qs, the 30 min cycle in a rollover from the midpoint of its range, the 60 min ticking slightly lower from its stalled upphase. The short cycle indicators are in a corrective sideways upphase, and volume is quite light for QQQQ at 56.1M shares so far. Same discussion as for the past week regarding the light volume- it shows a lack of conviction on the one hand, but frees up less liquidity with which to buy stocks back up on the other. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 2:22:06 PM

QQQQ Option Montage ... snapshot just taken. Noting even up/dn tick volume in the underlying QQQQ. Remember Feb expiration is next Friday! Heavier $41 put buyers could be "max pained" . Call open interest gives some room to $42 and $43 without market maker inflicting pain on him/herself. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 2:06:05 PM

March Unleaded (hu06h) $1.59 -3.04% ... "slipping" under my near-term zone of support $1.59302-$1.623.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 2:04:29 PM

VXN.X 17.77 +0.85% and has been either side of its WEEKLY Pivot. Yesterday's high of 18.16 not even close to being challenged today. VXN.X WEEKLY R1 at 18.21.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 2:02:51 PM

QQQQ $40.53 -0.68% ... QQQ-OQ are $2.50 x $2.55.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 2:02:01 PM

QQQQ Mar $43 Put update alert .... If we're going to get our $40.35 target, it is going to be in the final hour of trade.

If not, I want to NOW lower stop and close this trade if the QQQQ trades $40.75.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 1:54:41 PM

ICE $52.75 -5.31% ... daily interval bar chart with retracement. Why I want to trade the $50 puts noted at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 1:52:55 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $107.45, SPY $125.58, QQQQ $40.49.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 1:50:10 PM

Volume breadth holding at -3.4:1 on the NYSE, -1.55:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 1:37:43 PM

The break of the lows for QQQQ removes the possibility that the preceding drift was a 60 min cycle low. The 60 min cycle upphase has stalled, but it hasn't yet whipsawed to a downphase. If bears can hold price at or below current levels, the whipsaw will kick in on that laggy timeframe, while a pop from here could resolve as a possible bullish divergence. I'm still bearish due to the broader daily and weekly cycle downphases, but the persistent weakness in all these intraday timeframes has me on edge for the bounce that keeps not arriving. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 1:23:00 PM

Swing trade put alert ... Let's take two (2) of the IntercontinentalExchange ICE Feb $50 Puts (ICE-NJ) at the offer of $1.10.

"Benchmark" ICE at $53.26. Downside target will be WEEKLY S1 of $48.24.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 1:15:38 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 1:10:08 PM

Big push lower here in the SPY $125.62 -0.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 1:05:42 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) alert ... $37.36 -1.55% ... post-earnings low. Testing lower end of "zone of support."

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 1:03:56 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 1:01:13 PM

Jonathan ... Thanks. Ugh! So many levels at $40.35.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 12:59:55 PM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 12:58:00 PM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $52.70 -5.40% ... Possible short candidate on bounce back near $53.50.

Session high/low has been $56.15-$51.41.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 12:52:41 PM

Not yet. Right now they're down in your 40.35ish cluster, but they tend to move gradually. A break to 40.35 followed by a sideways bounce would be my guess, during which time those channels would continue to fall. So long as price holds south of the 72 SMA, they remain bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 12:51:09 PM

Jonathan! Any of your keltner channels point to $40.10 today for the QQQQ?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 12:48:59 PM

Volume breadth -2.65:1 on the NYSE, -1.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2006 12:46:11 PM

MUR 30 minute chart Link

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2006 12:33:12 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Look for a trade on Murphy Oil as it approaches 200 moving averages. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 12:29:12 PM

QQQQ retests the lows here. Bulls need them to hold: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 12:24:12 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Quick review of trader's question from last night ... The "benchmark" is date or initial profile, and a benchmark of how many shares of the underlying stock were profiled. For AMR, that was roughly a 1/3 position (1/3 of $10,000 equates to $3,333.33. Divide by where the stock was trading at time of profile and 1/3= approx 300 shares. 3 option contracts = 300 shares. Capital risk for stock would have been $3,246.00. Capital risk in option reduced to $600.00).

Please Note: You do NOT need a $100,000.00 account to trade my profiles. I simply use $10,000.00 as "full position measure" so that when I post my trade blotter, then ANY TRADER regardless of account size can determine how I'm doing based on an easily divisible number.

I also HAVE to have some type of starting point, or base number, so that I can determine STOP and TARGET for my trades. If I didn't have a hypothetical $10,000.00 = full position size starting point, then YOU and I would have NO idea if a trade makes sense. Does it make sense to buy/short 100 shares of a $38 security if the target is for a $0.05 gain?

Today I profiled 1/2 bullish in BOT. That trade is now STOPPED "Stop" at $103.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 12:02:40 PM

More sideways action for QQQQ here, still unchanged for opening levels, now -.11 at 40.70. We often see a sideways drift along 60 min cycle highs and lows, and because yesterday's low didn't break by much or for long, it's still possible that this range is a 60 min cycle bottom. If so, the current low should not be revisited, and the previous high at 40.93 needs to break. In the meantime, the range remains choppy and sideways, direction still up for grabs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 12:01:21 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $37.63 -0.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:59:45 AM

Sharper Image (SHRP) $10.00 +1.21% ... back to the $10.00 level again!

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:59:07 AM

QQQQ bearish thoughts ... today's action (bad ticks) and all these sell program premiums. I would have to think WEEKLY S1 in play for a Tuesday.

If so, then QQQQ should not break above morning's high. Right?

So, we SNUG DOWN OUR PROFIT STOP

Energy futures are falling and that can provide a bullish catalyst.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:54:15 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA 107.95, SPY $126.12, QQQQ $40.66.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:46:57 AM

Today's example of $PREM and SPY Montage at this Link ... I use the SPY as I can turn on volume and traders can see the spikes of institutional activity.

Each morning I give HL Camp & Company's buy/sell program premium levels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:29:01 AM

Please Note: For those traders that may just be joining the MM, these buy/sell program premiums I track are the "index arbitrage" premiums. These are very quick disparities between the cash market (SPX.X) and futures and are created by institutional computer programs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:23:56 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $108.04, SPX 1,262.48, QQQQ $40.81

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:20:50 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:17:54 AM

QQQQ $40.69 -0.29% ... another "bad tick" to $40.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 11:17:44 AM

Another bad tick for QQQQ to 40.10 just printed: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 11:06:54 AM

The wavelet cycle (middle oscillator pane) is running out of racetrack as the short cycle indicators (top oscillator pane) prints its first buy signal. If this bounce is for real, the wavelet needs to either start trending in overbought or put in a weak/corrective pullback for the next 10 or so minutes: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 11:02:52 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:53:31 AM

BOT $103.88 -0.11% ... after near kiss of WEEKLY Pivot ($101.90).

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:50:52 AM

QQQQ holds below yesterday's spike lows, testing 40.60 from below. The short cycles are gathering in oversold, and this should be a good spot for scalps to try to catch a wavelet and hopefully short cycle bounce. But because the 30 min cycle has whipsawed, there's the chance of a trending decline from here, so stops will need to be tight. It's still possible that this is a 30/60 min channel bottom retest, but if that's the case, bulls can't afford another lower low from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:50:39 AM

QQQQ 15-minute interval chart with "bad tick" observations at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:43:06 AM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for the BOT at $103.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:42:23 AM

Volume breadth -2.4:1 on the NYSE, -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:31:08 AM

On 01/24/06 as the BOT moved boldy above the overlapping $89.60-$89.88 level we tried to trade long with a swing trade, but didn't get filled at $90.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:28:26 AM

QQQQ cracked the previous low but has yet to violate yesterday's low. The drop has only tested declining short cycle support, with the 30 min channel bottom down at 40.50 where it overlaps S1. Below yesterday's 40.60 low, the selling will look more serious than it currently does. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:27:31 AM

Board of Trade (BOT) $105.00 +0.96% ... updated bar chart with high/low retracement (blue) and high/low close retracement (pink) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:24:11 AM

Day trade long filled alert ... for the BOT $106.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:19:40 AM

BOT $106.30 +2.21% ... I would look 1/2 bullish position. Will follow with updated chart, but BOT now in another "zone" from $105.40-$106.75. Session high has been outside this zone to $107.43.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:18:57 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:18:21 AM

Session low for ten year notes here at 108 1/4, TNX up to a 1.4 bp gain at 4.559%, big whipsaw this AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:16:15 AM

The swings are wider this morning but the result is the same, QQQQ thrashing about the 72 SMA and so far net unchanged from its opening levels, currently -.07 at 40.74. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:14:31 AM

Bullish day trade long alert for Board of Trade (BOT) $107.00 +2.88% ... should it trade $106. Stop would go $103.50 with target of $112.00

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:10:22 AM

QQQQ $40.88 +0.17% ... not much impact from that sell program premium at DAILY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:07:07 AM

Crude oil reopens, currently -.95 at 64/15, 5 cents off the low. Natgas -.15 at 7.845.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:03:39 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.05, SPX 1,262.95, QQQQ $40.77.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 10:02:17 AM

QQQQ $40.76 -0.12% ... This morning's "bad tick" to $40.10 is of interest.

Sometimes we will see a "bad tick" back to a level that was traded a day or two ago, and is simply a "late bill" of stock. Many times the "bad tick" will be a keypunch error where $40.10 is in error for $41.10.

However, today's "bad tick" comes to a level where a keypunch error doesn't tie with current trade (session high has been $40.93) and $40.10 hasn't been traded since November 10, 2005.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:01:47 AM

Headlines:

REALTORS: US HOUSING MARKET SLOWING, WILL STAY STRONG IN '06

EXISTING HOME SALES TO FALL 5% TO 6.74MLN IN 2006: REALTORS

NEW HOME SALES TO FALL 8.5% TO 1.17MLN: REALTORS

U.S. HOME PRICES TO RISE 5% TO $219,200: REALTORS

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 10:00:40 AM

The Fed has drained net 2B, announcing a 5B overnight repo against 7B expiring.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 9:56:37 AM

QQQQ stopped dead at R1, 2 pennies below the rising 30 min channel top, and has run back to the pivot at the 72 SMA: Link . A bounce here should confirm the start of a new 30 min cycle upphase- something the bulls have been unable to do in several days.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 9:55:55 AM

Google (GOOG) $373.62 -3.02% ... retraces 50% of its August low to recent highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 9:54:56 AM

:)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 9:52:51 AM

Another bifurcated day, Advancing volume leading +1.25:1 on the Nasdaq and lagging -1.38:1 on the NYSE.

Jane Fox : 2/7/2006 9:52:21 AM

AD line is +175 and sight better than the open -600 but AD volume is still below 0 so although the bears have lost the reins the bulls do not have them yet. Just like yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 9:49:44 AM

QQQQ $40.90 +0.22% ... QQQ-OQ are $2.15 x $2.25.

VXN.X 17.55 -0.39% ...

VIX.X 13.12 +0.61% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 9:49:43 AM

April gold -13.70 here to 560.70, a session low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 9:48:25 AM

QQQQ $40.84 +0.07% ... gets above DAILY Pivot and that tends to be bullish after a lower open.

"Bad tick" to $40.10. If that's a setup of computer program, we had better see a reversal back below DAILY Pivot pretty quick.

Jane Fox : 2/7/2006 9:44:11 AM

The VIX remains in the yesterday's narrow range. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 9:43:52 AM

QQQQ regains the pivot and 72 SMA here, the short cycle downphase stalling early in its run: Link

Jane Fox : 2/7/2006 9:39:16 AM

AD line is -614 and AD volume is well below 0 so the bears have reins this morning.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 9:35:29 AM

Volume breadth is -1.95:1 on the NYSE, -1.25:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 9:34:55 AM

General Motors (GM) $23.58 +1.02% Link ... Cuts dividend in half, reduces executive pay, plans cuts for health benefits for salaried retirees.

AP Story Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 9:34:20 AM

QQQQ 72 SMA at 40.79; 30/60 min channel support are at 40.57-.60, resistance 40.90-.96.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 9:31:36 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $38.14 +0.50% Link ... Said this morning that Q4 2005 jewelry sales increased more than 100% year-over-year.

Jeff Bailey : 2/7/2006 9:26:50 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.86 and set for program selling at $+1.88.

Program Trading Averaged 54.20% of the NYSE volume Jan 23 to Jan 27, 2006. Buy programs were 51.27% of the total program trading volume. Sell programs were 48.73%. Pure index arbitrage was 7.30% of the total program trading volume.

Jane Fox : 2/7/2006 9:05:05 AM

DAteline WSJ General Motors Corp., facing mounting cost pressures, said it plans to halve its $2-a-share yearly dividend and cut executive salaries.

"These are difficult decisions that involve sacrifices by our employees, stockholders, retirees, and the senior leadership team," GM Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner said. "However, we are confronting a dramatic change in our industry and in the global competitive environment, and that requires us to look for additional ways to reduce financial risk and improve our competitiveness for the long term." Shares of GM edged higher in premarket trading.

GM also advised its U.S. salaried employees, who are eligible for retirement health-care coverage, of changes to their retiree health-care benefits. GM said it will cap its contributions to salaried retiree health-care at the level of its 2006 expenditures, beginning Jan. 1, 2007. The adjustments are projected to reduce GM's retiree health-care liabilities by about $4.8 billion and cut GM's annual retiree health-care expense by about $900 million on a full-year pre-tax basis.

Jane Fox : 2/7/2006 9:02:30 AM

Dateline WSJ BP PLC said the sky-high energy prices and robust refining margins that have buoyed the rest of the oil industry sent fourth-quarter earnings up by 22%, more than making up for poor operational performance at the company's refining and marketing businesses.

BP, the world's second largest publicly traded oil company by market capitalization behind Exxon Mobil Corp., said higher oil and gas prices lifted profitability in its core exploration and production businesses, despite production shortfalls related to the hurricanes last year in the Gulf of Mexico. BP and its peers suffered considerable damage to production platforms and distribution networks as a result of the storms.

The storms also knocked out significant refining capacity in the Gulf Coast, and BP has been hobbled in particular by the delayed re-start of its Texas City refinery. The plant was the site of an explosion last March that killed 15. BP shut down the plant ahead of Hurricane Rita several months later, but has also used the down time to focus on safety issues at the plant.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 9:00:40 AM

QQQQ's 30 min and 60 min cycle indicators are moving in lockstep due to the slow action of the past few days. Both have turned up out of oversold territory in a slow, bullish divergent upphase that has potentially many hours to run. Of course, that was the case yesterday, and we saw only weakness in price, an indication of dominance from the longer term downphases in the daily and weekly timeframes.

Regarding the question on the indicators I use: my technique is adapted from J.M. Hurst's cycle method of stock transaction timing. The theory is that price moves in discernable cycles, and the interplay of cycles in multiple timeframes allows one to not predict, but at least determine where price is likely to go next. By following price cycles in different timeframes (measured by price oscillators such as stochastics and Macd), and correlating those oscillators to price channels (Hurst used MA channels, I use Keltners), we can reduce price movement to a model that I liken to pipes within pipes. The longest timeframes are like wide pipes (channels), within which narrower pipes move (shorter timeframes/narrower channels), and so on. On my intraday charts displayed throughout the day, I have a broad daily channel (blue Kelnter155), within which is the 60 min channel (Keltner90 in grey), then the 30 min (Kelnter35 in orange) and the short cycle (keltner10 in red).

The way to trade these channels is to correlate them to oscillators. When all the oscillators in multiple timeframes line up in overbought or oversold, and price tests or violates the upper or lower channel bands, then there's a strong likelihood of a reversal from the level of the channel break. The key is to be patient wait for the stars to align. If the daily and weekly cycle indicators were oversold, then yesterday's low would have been a buy with a tight stop when the 30/60 min channel bands were tested (see NQ chart this Link ). But with the daily channel never tested and the daily oscillators with plenty of room to run lower, such a trade would have been early/required a very wide stop. Patience is essential- by rushing or forcing the trades, we lose the ability to place a tight stop with confidence just beyond the channel bands.

Hope that helps.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 8:24:38 AM

Bonds are holding their gains at the cash open, TNX quoted -1.8 bps at 4.527%, flatter against IRX which is up 1.3 bps at 4.36%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/7/2006 7:43:54 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1265.5, NQ 1662.5, YM 10797 and QQQQ -.09 at 40.72. Gold is down 3.30 at 571.10, silver -.068 at 9.69, ten year notes +108 23/64, and crude oil is down .70 at 64.40.

We await the 3PM release of Consumer Credit, est. +5B.

Tab Gilles : 2/7/2006 7:22:47 AM

NASI Sell signal from daily and weekly $NASI. Link Link

Follow up to 11:34 AM 1/25/06 post. Sell remaining UOPIX on closing NAV today. Link

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