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Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 1:58:21 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.62 and set for program selling at $+1.69.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 1:35:59 AM

ICE $53.48 +0.05% ... just seeing this news Link .

I doubt it would have too much impact into next Friday's expiration.

I monitored some of today's option montage action and while this stock's options aren't actively traded, it looked to me like $50 put selling and $55 call selling.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 1:08:03 AM

e-mini S&P (es06h) (begin reading 01:06:19 AM post) ... PINK retracement is probably what a "highs are in" trader was trading. "Sell the 1,265 and watch it dive" got crushed come the New Year Link and perhaps there are some overly NAKED FEB CALL SELLERS out there.

Jane made a great comment about "trading ranges" and the BLUE retracement would really tied in nicely with a Jan-Dec range.

SPX Option Montage and connecting three most OI does point to 1,275 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 1:06:44 AM

e-mini S&P (es06h) ... with a Oct-Jan low/high settlement retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 1:06:36 AM

SPX Option Montage at today's close Link ... Getting a look at the 1,265 strike (see today's close).

When I look at the OEX montage (below), see how nice Open Interest is divided at today's close 574.99 (say 575 and WEEKLY Pivot)

SPX OI is rather messy, tougher to get a grasp of.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 1:06:19 AM

OEX Option Montage at today's close Link

All those sell program premiums yesterday (Tuesday) then today's whip back higher.

Not a signle buy program premium today and just one sell program premium (09:45-50 AM EST).

OI Technical Staff : 2/8/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 9:49:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's activity .... Day trade long a full position in shares of Crocs, Inc. (CROX) at the offer of $30.10, but was stopped out at the bid of $29.75 ($-$0.35, or -1.16%)

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 9:31:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 9:28:23 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 2/8/2006 7:51:54 PM

Nasdaq summation ($NASI) Update to 2/7 7:22 AM post. UOPIX fund remaining 1/2 position was sold at last nights closing NAV of $24.45 on a $26.68 cost basis as per 1/25/06 11:34AM post.

The daily chart of the $NASI is in sell mode. Having given a bearish divergence and now the SAR reversal. It appears that 1600 will be the next level to test. daily... Link weekly.... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 4:08:28 PM

Daily QQQQ chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 3:59:18 PM

Back. QQQQ made a nominal new high, but failed to break R1, the short cycles once again toppy and rolling over. The stage is set for any afterhours churning. 72 SMA support is at 41.00, below which the longer intraday channels (which are now due for a downphase) will have a bearish bias. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 3:43:56 PM

VIX.X 12.92 -4.93% ... bugger sitting right on its WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 2/8/2006 3:43:48 PM

Jeff, thanks for the reminder on GOOG. It's at a very interesting point right now. It dropped faster than I thought it would but if my EW count is correct, the current pullback should be wave-(4) which means we're due the final move higher in wave-(5). A 4th wave typically retraces 38% of the previous 3rd wave and for GOOG that's at 355.24. The current pullback has been to 354.67 so close enough. The daily hammer candlestick certainly looks like a bullish reversal pattern setting up (needs a green candle tomorrow). This could be setting up now for the final run for the roses, which of course would google the bears' butts. Link

Keene Little : 2/8/2006 3:42:57 PM

Jeff, I'm trying to upload a chart of GOOG to show it might have bottomed in its pullback and its off to the races again for that stock.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 3:30:28 PM

GOOG $369.06 +0.30% ... Hey Keene ... does "the wave" suggest a push back to $384?

5-minute interval chart shows a decent h/s bottom formation. Neckline right in here at $370.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 3:24:04 PM

Keene ... I thought your wave analysis was right on with GOOG.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 3:21:01 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.57 +1.01% ... push clear of WEEKLY Pivot.

Beadth positive at 25 to 5 with GM $21.94 -3.81% notable loser.

PFE $26.31 +5.53%, HPQ $31.74 +4.51% and VZ $32.54 +3.26%

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 3:17:09 PM

03:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 3:09:00 PM

03:05 Market Watch found at this Link

I keep losing my cable connection for 15-minutes at a time. When this happens, it seems as if a significant outage is just around the corner.

Keene Little : 2/8/2006 2:53:42 PM

Jeff, are you saying I shouldn't give up my day job? (grin) Me without wave analysis would be like a day without sunshine.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 2:48:21 PM

Stepping away for about 30 mins.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 2:39:22 PM

That was funny. I hope Keene isn't giving up on his wave analysis.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 2:35:45 PM

Keene's reply to Jane's 2:00:58.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 2:34:51 PM

Jonathan ... What was so funny at 02:03 ???

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 2:32:53 PM

Ten year notes are weaker, TNX now up to a 3 bp gain at 4.597%, IRX +1 bp at 4.392%. The participation on the ten year auction was above 40%, but nowhere near the 55%+ that set the record in recent months.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 2:18:58 PM

QQQQ loses 72 SMA support, the 30 min cycle upphase stalling. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 2:13:21 PM

Exchange stocks ... ... ICE $53.40 -0.09%, CME $399.10 -0.22% and BOT $101.16 +0.50% have all been either side of unchaged today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 2:08:41 PM

I thought a nice 50% gain for CROX by the close would have been appropriate, but didn't think it would have traded back under $29.87.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 2:05:27 PM

CROX $29.89 +42.33% ... slapped on a GREEN "dynamic" at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 2:03:00 PM


Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 1:57:50 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert for CROX at $29.75

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 1:56:57 PM

QQQQ tests 72 SMA support here at 40.90, the short cycle downphase starting to bare its claws. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 1:53:56 PM

Volume breadth +1.11:1 on the NYSE, +2.8:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 1:40:11 PM

CROX 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 1:29:40 PM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for CROX $30.10 here, stop $29.75, target $31.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 1:28:35 PM

QQQQ has pulled back with the short cycle rollover off the high, but the decline has yet to test previous support at 40.90, 2 cents above the 72 SMA. This looks like a corrective pullback within the ongoing 30/60 min cycle upphases- a break below the 72 SMA would be the first sign of trouble for bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 1:19:59 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 1:04:40 PM

Foreign central banks took a respectable 5.25B of the 13B in 10-year notes auctioned today. The high-yield on the notes was 4.54%, the median yield 4.51%, and the bid to cover ratio 2.32. Currently, TNX holds a .9 bp gain at 4.526%, the ZN ten year note future contract up 1/64 at 108 3/16.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 1:03:23 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 12:53:34 PM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle is just now reaching overbought, the 60 min trailing roughly 20% behind it. There's still more gas potentially left in the tank, but 41.20-.30 could be enough to cap it. The short cycle is toppy here, but again- it's still a little early for an abort to the longer intraday upphases. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 12:53:07 PM

After yesterday's plethora of program trading premiums, very quiet today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 12:49:00 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $38.06 +1.46% ... best levels of the session after morning low of $37.12.

QQQQ $41.09 +1.15% ... best levels of the session after morning low of $40.69.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 12:48:15 PM

The Fed announced a permanent open market op, a coupon pass of 1.25B- effectively a repo that never gets repaid to the Fed. New high for QQQQ as I type, breaking 30/60 min channel resistance on the move above 41.02. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 12:34:22 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) daily interval bar charts tied to past and current NYSE NH/NL ratios at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 12:28:39 PM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 12:23:21 PM

The short cycle and wavelet indicators are on the cusp of new downphases, and this surge is coming out of left field in the past 2 minutes, retesting the high: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 12:04:36 PM

Session high for QQQQ here, a pickup in volume but no clear breakout. 30/60 min channel resistance line up at 40.98-41.00, also confluence resistance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 12:01:50 PM

BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) $16.60 -11.93% Link ... Earings Press Release Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 11:59:05 AM

Volume breadth +1.12:1 on the NYSE, +2.43:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 11:50:08 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 11:34:23 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Diesel and Jet Fuel Inventory Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 11:25:38 AM

QQQQ continues its sideways-lower drift within the opening gap range, still a possible bull flag to form the handle of a bullish cup and handle. But price is holding pennies from the 72 SMA at 40.75, which so far is causing the 30/60 min cycle upphases to remain weak/corrective- clearly not what bulls need to see. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 11:17:39 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 11:02:07 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 10:59:30 AM

Session low for crude oil, -.80 at 62.30 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 10:55:28 AM

EIA Weekly Inputs, Operable Capacity, Pct. Utilization Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 10:46:27 AM




Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 10:45:28 AM

BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) $16.02 -14% ... plunging.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 10:39:42 AM

Crude oil is down .30 to 62.80 here, .375 off the low. QQQQ holds near its high, in a possible handle of a cup and handle formation. If so, a break above the high on a burst of volume would signal the breakout. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 10:32:52 AM

From the EIA website:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) inched lower by 0.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 320.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories jumped by 4.3 million barrels last week, putting them above the upper end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories also inched lower by 0.3 million barrels last week, but remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. An increase in low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel) inventories was more than compensated by a larger decline in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil) inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels last week, and remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 10:32:19 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 10:27:50 AM

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Asian investors are important for Freddie Mac's funding needs, according to Timothy Bitsberger, the agency's new treasurer and former assistant secretary for financial markets at the U.S. Treasury.

Investors in the region have bought up to 60 percent of Freddie Mac's recent sales. Overseas holdings of agency debt surged 53 percent to a record last year, according to Federal Reserve figures. Bitsberger is in Tokyo to find meet investors seeking to buy the agency's notes and mortgage-backed securities.


Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 10:07:40 AM

ICE $52.91 -1.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 10:07:12 AM

OPEC January Output estimated to have fallen by 220,000 barrels per day to 29.67 million barrels per day.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 9:59:52 AM

QQQQ edges lower toward a gap fill, S1 being gap support at 40.68. A short cycle downphase is in progess off the pennant failure below 40.87. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 9:58:59 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $55.28 -2.34% ... slips into "zone of support." $55.00 was my initial bearish target, but we were profit stopped at $59.00.

EIA data 30-minutes away.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 9:58:10 AM

The Fed has 5B in expiring repos and the Treasury will auction 13B in 10-year notes this afternoon. The Fed has just announced a 3.5B overnight repo to drain 1.5B net, but dealer demand for the money fell to 4.44%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 9:49:47 AM

Weekly Energy Inventory estimates ... Fimat sees crude oil inventories rising by 1.1 million barrels, gasoline up 1.4 million and distillates unchanged.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 9:48:45 AM

Volume breadth setles to 1:1 on the NYSE, +2.75:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jane Fox : 2/8/2006 9:44:49 AM

Yes Jonathan it sure has.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 9:44:18 AM

February's been a long month so far.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 9:41:01 AM

Not exactly a "gap & crap" so far... just a tight continuation pennant at the top: Link . The short cycle indicators are very toppy here, but so far the price action is compatible with a breakaway gap up.

Jeff Bailey : 2/8/2006 9:34:37 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+4.02 and set for program selling at $+1.74.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 9:31:22 AM

Volume breadth is +1.88:1 on the NYSE, +6.25:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 9:30:55 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA support is at 40.58 , 30/60 min channel support at 40.35 , 30/60 min channel resistance at 40.84 .

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 9:22:23 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has finally fulled up into a clear upphase, while the the 60 min cycle continues its upward ambiguous drift, as it's been doing all week. I expect the current gap up open to drill the shorter cycles into overbought, setting the stage for a possible gap & crap if the bulls can hold for the first 15 minutes. Obviously, all of these cycles were due for an upphase, and the overnight bounce has taken the Qs up to resistance at former support on the way down. I will update the intraday levels when they refresh in the next few minutes.

Jane Fox : 2/8/2006 9:16:40 AM

Dateline WSJ Nortel Networks Corp. said it agreed in principle to pay cash and stock valued at more than $2 billion to settle two significant class-action lawsuits over alleged violations of securities laws

Under the agreement, the Brampton, Ontario, networking-gear maker will pay $575 million in cash and issue 628.7 million shares, or about 14.5% of its current equity.

Nortel said it expects to record a fourth-quarter charge of nearly $2.48 billion, or 57 cents a share, on the proposed settlement, including a noncash charge of about $1.9 billion for the equity component of the settlement. The $1.9 billion figure is based on Nortel's closing price of $3.02 on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 8:59:19 AM

Session low for crude oil here at 62.625, -.475.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 8:49:43 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 8:41:03 AM

Bonds have held positive after a brief dip to negative territory, TNX currently quoted -.2 bps 4.565%, flatter against IRX which is +1.3 bps at 4.395%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 8:17:32 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage applications activity eased in the week ended Feb. 3 compared to the prior week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the MBA's gauge for tracking mortgage applications overall slipped 1.2%, with applications for mortgages to buy homes dropping 2.4% and refinancing applications nosing 0.2% higher. Refinancings accounted for 42.1% of last week's applications, off from 43.0% a week earlier, while adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 29.8% from 30.5%. Average contract interest rates on 30- and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.25% and 5.84%, respectively, from the previous week's 6.20% and 5.79%. The average rate on one-year ARMs held steady at 5.48%. Overall, the MBA's four-week moving average tracking mortgage volumes was down 1.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 8:08:36 AM

Still waiting for this week's Mortgage Bankers Assoc. data and came across this news from 2 days ago:

Orlando, FL (February 6, 2006) - Commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers' loan originations set a new record during 2005, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Originations reported in 2005 were 48 percent higher than in 2004. The increase in 2005 was led by substantial gains among all property types while commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) conduits, commercial banks, life insurance companies, and Fannie Mae led the increases among investor types.

MBA also reported that loan originations in the fourth quarter were the highest ever recorded in MBA's quarterly survey. Fourth quarter origination volume was 16 percent higher than the previous quarter.

Full report at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/8/2006 7:37:28 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1260.25, NQ 1671, YM 10784 and QQQQ +.30 at 40.93. Gold is down 5.10 to 549.90, silver -.099 to 9.307, ten year notes flat at 108 11/64, and crude oil +.075 to 63.175.

We await the 10:30 release of the EIA crude inventory report.

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