Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 2:56:11 AM

GOOG chart (please read 02:55:23 first) at this Link where I drag down the PINK 0% to GOOG's current bearish vertical count.

Wednesday's low isn't explained by any of the retracement. Is it? The only other way to explain that level was to anchor 0% at that low.

Another is to "fit" the PINK 19.1% retracement to Wednesday's low, which would have 0% moving higher, as well as the 38.2%.

I don't know if I'd want to have my bearish stop moving up though. Perhaps a BIG profitable bear just wanted to start locking in some gains at $345.67 on Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 2:55:23 AM

Question ... Jeff: I bought GOOG March 350 puts at 2.35 about 4 weeks ago. What would you be doing with these at the current time. My feeling is this thing could drop to 300, need your expert opinion. Thanks

ANTHONY

Reply: First look at the PnF chart of GOOG Link and note that the bearish vertical count is to $316. Stocks can sometimes meet, exceed, or never meet their vertical counts, but it amazes traders/investors when they do (Remember MUR pegging its bearish vertical count at $42 in October?) Link

First sign of meaningful strength at this point for GOOG Link would be a trade at $392 (conventional $4 box above $200.00) and that would be a starting point for a trailing stop.

"Ugh!" you say. OK. Let's say I'm the best trader, or luckiest trader in the world and I shorted/put GOOG at $475.11, and I don't want to wait until GOOG trades $392.

Do this ... You might already have the BLUE retracement on your bar chart. You might also remember my BULLISH profile for GOOG six (6) sessions ago at $404, target $420, stop $392.

Now do this ... again imagine I/you shorted/put GOOG at $475.11. Take a PINK retracement, or any color you prefer, then DRAG IT DOWN!

Like this ... Link

The smartest money in the market sold GOOG at $475.11. This we know as a fact.

Anthony, or anyone ... why would we target $300?

Why would anyone target $475.11? Too bullish at $457.00 round number is a guess.

Why would GOOG have fallen to 354.67? Somebody targeting $355? Let's hope it wasn't the same trader/investor that sold $475.11.

You can go on and on to the BLUE 61.8% and be sure somebody's target is $350.

Without knowing what you paid for the option, what impied volatility and time premium erosion has done to the opion, I would at least follow with a stop above $377.67, say $381 for some wiggle room.

Then, if GOOG breaks lower still, DRAG DOWN your PINK 0% retracement to that day's low. See how your stop would move lower?

For grins ... DRAG your PINK 0% down to the bearish vertical count. Look at all the resulting levels. Do they "make sense" with how GOOG traded? If they do, then GOOG might just be destined for $316.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 1:36:36 AM

Internet Problems ... ICE Option Plan ... I was just about at the end of my rope today. For a second-straight day I lost cable Internet connection. The development I live in is "fixing things" and I litteraly had to run around and find out who has flipped the switch on the control box.

I have been assured (for a second time) that it won't happen again.

Add to that ... "Mi espanol no es muy bueno!"

The one trade I would be keeping an eye on for those that are trading it are the ICE Feb $50 Puts (ICE-NJ). We have 6 trading days until these OUT THE MONEY options expire. Execution of exit could be critical. This stock can move $1 in the matter of minutes.

When this stock moves, it can move fast and implied volatility with it! My target is to sell these options should the STOCK trade $48.25.

Just in case I were to be "disconnected" for a third-day, I would be willing to part with these options should they trade $1.90 or better. If you want to exit at any other price, that is fine, but I will follow the trade to $1.90 is achieved, or the trade is officially closed out here in the Market Monitor.

The reason I use STOCK prices for execution of OPTION entry/close is so I can set an al_rt on my trading software that al_rts me to target. If I set an al_rt on the option itself and the option doesn't see a trade take place at or above/below a price al_rt, then it may be hours before I know a target, or even a stop would have been triggered.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 1:12:45 AM

Correction! to post late yesterday afternoon regarding Russell 2000 NH/NL readings. Thursday's action found 80 stocks recording new highs vs. 10 stocks trading new lows.

Handy data source at this Link

I often get questions from Dorsey/Wright chart subscribers as to "why a bullish % for optionable stocks?" You will note at the above link that here to we see "Option Stocks." It is fact that many institutional money management firms will not invest long/short in stocks that do not trade with options. Using a pure "Option Stocks" can give insight as to what BIG money is doing, or more importantly.... NOT doing.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:55:03 AM

iShare Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) ... Daily interval bar chart at this Link ... I have also posted this week's conventional weekly pivot levels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:30:22 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in the iShares Russell 2000 Growth (AMEX:IWO) at the bid of $74.83. Stop for now at $76.30, target $72.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:00:22 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.76 and set for program selling at $+1.69.

OI Technical Staff : 2/9/2006 9:59:41 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 5:23:03 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 5:10:49 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 5:00:16 PM

Some NH/NL notes that may be of interest, which I follow like a hawk, but don't have room in intra-day internals, or resources to post.

Russell 2000 had 79:79 today

S&P 500 had 28:1

Option Stocks 111:13

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 4:37:39 PM

IWO vs. IWM relative strength chart Link ... 1-point box.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 4:27:36 PM

QQQQ $40.71 -0.94% ... $40.64 extended.

Per this morning's comment and selling 1/2 bullish in personal account on test of conventional weekly pivot ($41.34), I didn't have a stop placed with broker on other 1/2.

Would place under WEEKLY S1 at this time.

IWO went out right at its WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 4:16:31 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.24 -0.21% ... quiet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:59:57 PM

IWO is iShare Russell 2000 Growth ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:59:32 PM

Swing trade short 1/2 position alert for the IWO $74.83 -0.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:47:01 PM

SPX Feb/March Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:41:12 PM

ICE $53.17 -0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:40:47 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $38.03 -0.36% ... reversing earlier gains.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:38:39 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.88, SPX 1,264.28, QQQQ $40.74

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:28:56 PM

SPX 1,266.15 +0.03% ... ticked 1,267.50 on sell premium.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:27:45 PM

Program Trading Premiums ... Quick intra-day check does show a sell premium generated right at 03:00-03:05. It was shallow and just kissed $+1.69.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:24:22 PM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $24.54 +5.23%% ... no sign of econ weakness here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:23:22 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $56.22 +2.53% ... $562.20

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:22:28 PM

Junk Bond ... PHF $9.36 +0.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:21:47 PM

BIX.X 359.80 +0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:20:27 PM

Getting back .... cable outage again.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:19:38 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:15:43 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $12.73 +1.19% ... 200-day SMA alert.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 3:05:29 PM

YIELD CURVE INVERSION ALERT! ALERT! ALERT! 5-year finishes 4.541% 10-year finishes 4.541%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 3:00:02 PM

I need to step away and won't be back by the close. Daily chart of QQQQ: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 2:58:40 PM

QQQQ holds near the lows, the broader channels turning lower now and a wide potential head and shoulders forming - possible left shoulder resistance to 41.10, neckline at 40.80-.90. If so, any bounce should fail below 41.10, no higher than 41.20 (assuming a sloping neckline in that latter case). Link 72 SMA resistance is at 41.17, the longer intraday cycles bearish so long as price holds below it.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 2:36:13 PM

Headline:

2:35pm FED'S MOSKOW: GREENSPAN FREE TO TALK AS MUCH AS HE WANTS

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 2:35:15 PM

Headline:

2:34pm MOSKOW: PAST ENERGY COSTS TO BOOST CORE INFLATION IN 2006

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 2:31:39 PM

QQQQQ holding right on 30/60 min channel support, volume breadth slowly weakening and now down to +2.11:1 on the Nasdaq, still strong. Link So far, price action is looking like an early bear flag off the low, but it's too early to tell.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 2:03:27 PM

QQQQ trading sideways at the low end of today's range here, near the bottom of a corrective short cycle downphase. Volume breadth has firmed to +2.85:1 on the Nasdaq, but price continues to hold below the 72 SMA at 41.23: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 1:22:37 PM

For all the bullishness, QQQQ is up a nickel today at 41.15, on light volume. But volume breadth remains strong even here, still +2.35:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 1:19:14 PM

QQQQ returning to 41.20, but now below the 72 SMA, the 30 min cycle channel stalled but not yet declining. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 1:08:23 PM

Headline:

1:07pm 30-YEAR AUCTION INDIRECT BID 65.4%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 1:05:25 PM

Foreign central banks took 9.07B of the 14B 30-yr note auction. High yield 4.53%, median yield 4.49%, bid to cover 2.05.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 12:25:36 PM

QQQQ glued to the rising 72 SMA: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 12:17:08 PM

I expect that many eyes will be watching the results of the 14B thirty year note auction at 1PM. Here's teh announcement from Feb. 1st:

The Treasury will auction $21,000 million of 3-year notes, $13,000 million of 10-year notes, and $14,000 million of 30-year bonds to refund $17,281 million of publicly held securities maturing on February 15, 2006, and to raise approximately $30,719 million of new cash.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 12:09:26 PM

From the Treasury's website:

The Treasury will auction 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills totaling $37,000 million to refund an estimated $33,766 million of publicly held 13-week and 26-week Treasury bills maturing February 16, 2006, and to raise new cash of approximately $3,234 million. Also maturing is an estimated $8,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills, the disposition of which will be announced February 13, 2006.

That's the equivalent of a 3.234B net drain, taking some of the wind out this AM's repo add.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 12:04:54 PM

OEX ... based on current information ... next week's conventional WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... 564.82, 571.44, Piv= 574.99, 581.61, 585.16.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 11:59:48 AM

The wavelet has just topped for QQQQ, and if price rolls over here, we'll get that lower high mentioned earlier. It wouldn't be a head and shoulders because of the lack of a left shoulder, but cycle-wise, it's the same deal- the broader (30 and 60 min Keltner 35 and keltner 90) channels are flattening at the top, turning slowly as they do, while the short cycle (keltner 10 in red) makes a lower high within them, contrained by their change in slope: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 11:54:20 AM

OEX 578.24 +0.56% bold move above correlative 21 and 50-day SMA's today. Eyeballing the 587-588 conventional WEEKLY R2/MONTHLY R1.

Let's check out our option montage. Price out some NAKED out the money calls.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 11:52:29 AM

Volume breadth +2.7:1 on the NYSE, +2.45:1 on the Nasdaq, still strong but well off its earlier highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 11:32:54 AM

So far, QQQQ's test of the 72 SMA support has been successful, the wavelet now midway through its upphase. Bears will be looking for that upphase to make a lower high below the session high, to set up another test of the 72 SMA at 41.15. A higher high will confirm a bullish trending move for the 30/60 min cycles. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 11:30:30 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 11:14:27 AM

QQQQ reverses its gains and break back to the 72 SMA at 41.14. A successful retest will be bullish if it holds, but the 30/60 min cycles are due for a downphase. A break of the 72 would the first step in kicking it off. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 11:05:20 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:58:45 AM

Session high for crude oil here at 63.175, +.625. Still no reliable quote for TNX for some reason.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:50:19 AM

Be alert ... ICE $52.96 -0.97% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:49:43 AM

Mighty Small Caps ... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:48:41 AM

QQQQ has dropped 7 cents, chopping volume breadth in half, now +2.44:1 on the Nasdaq. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:43:26 AM

Valero (VLO) $55.50 -0.69% ... yes ... ties pretty good with Unleaded's trade.

Nothing here, not yet. If unleaded gives way lower, then VLO vulnerable to $52.24-$52.86 zone.

Here's you PnF relative strength chart of continuous unleaded vs. continuous oil Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:37:19 AM

March Unleaded (hu06h) $1.54 -0.64% ... just ticked $1.53 at those late November contract lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:36:16 AM

Volume breadth now +3.25:1 on the NYSE, going berzerker at +5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:34:06 AM

ICE $53.37 -0.20% ... jury is out as to what correlation energy prices might have on this one.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:33:29 AM

Headlines:

MARCH NATURAL GAS DOWN 33.5C, OR 4.3%, AT $7.40/MLN BTUS

MARCH NATURAL GAS DROPS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LATE FEB '05

U.S. NATURAL GAS STKS FALL 38 BLN CUBIC FT: ENERGY DEPT

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:31:20 AM

Weekly Nat. Gas Storage by region Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:27:10 AM

The wavelet has stalled on this tick back up, the short cycle indicators now trending along the ceiling. I think we've just seen the terminal surge on the 30/60 min cycle upphases, but if that's the case, the bears need to start pushing back. Volume breadth is still a very strong +4.15:1. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:22:45 AM

Stepping away

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:21:08 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.82 -0.33% ... DAILY Pivot $26.90. WEEKLY S2 $26.72.

conventional of course.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:19:45 AM

QQQQ breaks, wavelet sell signal printing. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:19:24 AM

QQQQ $41.31 +0.51% ... selling long 1/2 bullish in personal account here. Conventional weekly pivot looking too tough.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:15:15 AM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap Link .

A day trader's friend.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:13:59 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.80 -0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:13:38 AM

Cisco (CSCO) $19.78 +1.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:13:11 AM

Intel (INTC) $21.11 +2.12% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:13:10 AM

Chart to accompany last post: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:11:26 AM

Stuck on a call and watching QQQQ push at the upper channel bands. Volume breadth is up to +4:1, feels ready to blow the roof off. Thinking short here because my gut feels the tape to be so bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:10:42 AM

Interesting QQQQ chart Jonathan. Your "Woody's" pivot level had S1 overlapping the conventional DAILY Pivot yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:04:14 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $38.75 +1.51% ... need a seller quick.

QQQQ so bullish

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 10:02:47 AM

VXN 12.49 -2.65% ... plunging....plunging now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 10:00:49 AM

Headlines:

U.S. DEC. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 1% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

U.S. DEC. WHOLESALE SALES RISE 1% VS. -0.7% IN NOV.

U.S. DEC. WHOLESALE INVENTORY-SALES RATIO STEADY AT 1.15

U.S. NOV. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES REVISED UP 0.5% VS 0.4% PRV.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 9:58:57 AM

QQQQ $41.27 +0.43% ... conventional DAILY R1 here. R2 at $41.44 marks the 02/02-02/03 gap.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:57:33 AM

ALAN Greenspan, who stepped down last week as chairman of the US Federal Reserve after 18 1/2 years, has blamed the threat of terrorism for the high gold price, in his first private sector speech since being let off the leash of officialdom.

According to members of his audience of international investors - watching a holographic image in Tokyo as he spoke in New York - Greenspan said the high cost of gold did not reflect inflation or the strength of commodities, but rather a fear among investors of a major geopolitical conflict. There were people who believed that a nuclear weapon could be detonated within five years, the former American central bank supremo said.

Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:54:18 AM

QQQQ update at this Link , 30 and 60 min channel tops converging at yesterday's R2 at 41.30. So far, volume is declining on this latest push to new highs.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:53:21 AM

A 7.25B overnight repo has just been announced, resulting in a 4.75B net add for the day. The stage is set for the 30-year t-bond auction at 1PM.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:47:40 AM

Volume breadth holding strong at +2.6:1 on the NYSE, +2.85:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 9:46:36 AM

Internet Index (INX.X) 225.24 +2.55% .... "hot early."

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:45:26 AM

QQQQ's short cycle indicators holding the cusp of either a new downphase or a bullish-upside trending move, the oscillators pinned to the ceiling: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:40:14 AM

The Fed has 13.5B in various repos maturing this AM, and has just replaced the 11B in 14-day money with a new 11B 14-day repo. This leaves 2.5B to address in the short term repo announcement just before 10AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:37:51 AM

I'm pretty sure that teh CBOE is delivering bad data this AM on TNX, now quoted -4 bps at 4.555%. IEF (the Lehman iShare on 7-10 yr notes) is flat, as is the ZN future.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 9:37:45 AM

XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) $26.51 +7.67% ... Signs deal with Oprah. Rating upgrade.

Opra story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 9:31:21 AM

Networking Index (NWX.X) 255.88 +0.21% ... set to challenge multi-year high.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:31:15 AM

Volume breadth +2.2:1 on the NYSE, +3.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:30:12 AM

QQQQ intraday chart at this Link with 72 SMA support at 41.00, 30/60 min channel resistance at 41.18-.21, support 40.78-.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 9:25:20 AM

Suriname Ratifies Global Nuclear Test Ban Treaty - DJ- Suriname has ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the Vienna-based organization that administers the accord said Thursday, bringing to 129 the number of nations that have endorsed the pact.

Suriname is the 24th nation in Latin America and the Caribbean to ratify the treaty and formally notified the U.N. late Tuesday that it had thrown its full support behind the pact, which bans test explosions or any other nuclear explosions, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization said.

The treaty still has not come into effect because it needs ratification from 44 states listed in an annex, and only 33 have done so, the CTBTO said.

Those 44 nations participated in the 1996 disarmament conference and have nuclear research and power reactors.

Eight of the remaining 11 annex countries - China, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, the U.S. and Vietnam - have signed though not ratified the treaty. Three others - India, North Korea and Pakistan - have yet to sign.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 9:24:34 AM

UK's 2005 Trade Deficit Widens - DJ- The U.K.'s goods and services trade deficit hit its widest ever mark in 2005 at GBP47.6 billion, with the deficit in goods continuing its downward trend in December.

Figures released Thursday by National Statistics showed the goods trade deficit was GBP6.06 billion in December, compared with a deficit of GBP5.96 billion the previous month. The balance of trade in services improved again, showing a surplus of GBP1.7 billion compared with a GBP1.5 billion surplus in November. The record annual deficit in goods and services compares with a GBP39 billion deficit in 2004.

The monthly figure isn't a record, as it was still slightly narrower than the GBP6.09 billion deficit recorded in August. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week had forecast December's trade deficit would narrow to GBP5.6 billion.

The widening deficit came despite the fact that the oil account swung back into surplus in December, after five months in deficit. It showed a GBP300 million surplus, compared with a 300 million deficit in November.

NS said this is because long overdue maintenance of North Sea oil extraction facilities was finally completed.

Jeff Bailey : 2/9/2006 9:23:54 AM

MOF Mulls Delaying German Capital Gains Tax to 2008 - DJ - Germany is considering delaying the introduction of capital gains tax to 2008 from 2007 as currently planned, a German finance ministry official said Thursday.

"We are considering to regulate the taxation of private investors' capital gains together with the reform of companies' taxation that is planned for 2008," the official said on condition of anonymity.

In their November 2005 coalition agreement, the ruling conservative parties and Social Democrats agreed to introduce a 20% capital gains tax for private investors on profits generated by the sales of stocks and rented property from 2007.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:19:29 AM

Don't know if I'm getting a valid quote for ten year note yields- IB shows TNX -3 bps to 4.565%, and another source -2.2 bps to 4.573%. But ZN is flat at 107 31.5/32.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:16:51 AM

Current NQ channel chart at this Link . Still need to wait for my QQQQ chart to refresh.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:10:32 AM

Marc, I see 1693-1701 as being broader descending trendline resistance- if the bulls can punch through it, then it will become a much more bullish picture than what I see now- it would set up a potential retest of the top of the weekly cycle, even a possible nominal new high. But the benefit of the doubt still goes to bulls based on the recent weekly cycle rollover.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 9:04:05 AM

I noted yesterday afternoon that QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles were getting toppy but might still have gas in the tank, and that 41.20-.30 would be a likely zone of resistance. This morning the 60 min cycle is looking maxxed out to the upside, and the 30 min cycle has whipsawed from a rollover to a potentially bearish divergent upphase just below overbought territory. R1 is at 41.30 this morning, but I won't have the upper 30/60 min channel levels until my charts re-draw on the opening bell. So far, this is still looking a potential topping zone on these intraday cycles, and the only question will be whether there's enough energy to start those cycles in a trending move at the top.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 8:32:16 AM

QQQQ holds its 10 cent gain at 41.20 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 8:31:24 AM

Headline:

8:30am U.S. 4-WK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWEST SINCE APRIL 2000

8:30am U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL TO 5-YEAR LOW 2.58MLN

8:30am U.S. 4-WK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 7,750 TO 276,500

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 4,000 TO 277,000

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 8:25:20 AM

Bonds hold a light loss awaiting the data, -1/64 here at 107 31/32 on the ZN future.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/9/2006 7:49:06 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1269.75, NQ 1679, YM 10885 and QQQQ +.05 at 41.15. Gold is up 6.5 to 560.30, silver is up .073 to 9.51, ten year notes are down 3/64 to 107 15/16, crude oil is up .425 to 62.975 and natgas is up .02 to 7.755.

We await the 8:30 release of Initial Claims, est. +285K, then at 10AM Wholesale Inventories, est. .5%, and at 10:30, the Natural Gas storage report.

Market Monitor Archives