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Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2006 1:14:55 AM

Prior 3 WEEKLY Matrix found at this Link ... Looking to sell some OEX NAKED Calls this week. Good looking setup.

Jeff Bailey : 2/11/2006 1:04:44 AM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Note the 10-year's high/low this week. As round as round can be. Current target on Fed Funds is 4.50%, or 45.00 in the Pivot Matrix.

OI Technical Staff : 2/10/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 9:40:35 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

February Trade Blotter to date found at this Link

After plunging to a session low of $48.96, ICE went out at $51.73!

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 9:15:21 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 9:12:29 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 3:58:31 PM

QQQQ daily chart at this Link showing a bullish hammer for the day on rising volume. This could be a reversal candle for the daily cycle downphase, but the opex action and underperformance of the ER futures makes it suspect, as does the lower low/lower high combo for the day.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 3:46:33 PM

QQQQ pulls back here, but on declining volume, the 72 SMA still more than 20 cents' south of current levels. So far, the short cycle downphase is looking corrective, but it's still in its opening stages. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 3:27:16 PM

Bearish-d on the wavelet oscillator, the short cycles pinned to the ceiling and at risk of a bullish trending move. Link Bears need a break below 40.85 to stall the 30 min cycle upphase.

Jane Fox : 2/10/2006 3:18:15 PM

VIX is supporting ES's new daily highs and both AD line and AD volume have been pouhed above 0. THe bulls obviously have some powder left in their muskets.

Jane Fox : 2/10/2006 3:16:49 PM

TICKs are quite bullish today +1214 to -810

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 3:17:59 PM

Closing numerical snapshots of today's inverted yield curve at this Link . Artistic representation of the yield curve at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 3:11:18 PM

Volume breadth is up to -1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.36:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ holds at the top of today's range- possible bullish handle of a cup and handle formation, provided that price holds above the 40.85 level. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 2:52:30 PM

The short cycle indicators have just maxxed out here, setting up a good likelihood of a pullback from 40.90-41.00 resistance. But because of the broader 30/60 min channel upturns, my guess is for any short cycle pullback this afternoon to be corrective only. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 2:44:04 PM

Oh just a minute alert! ...

Let's Place an order to SELL NAKED calls for two (2) of the S&P 100 Index OEX 585 Calls (OEB-BQ) for $1.00 should they trade that into the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 2:41:00 PM

QQQQ breaking upper 30/60 min channel resistance here above 40.74. If these were overbought cycles, then it would be a potential short entry point, but here theese channels have potentially hours left to run higher. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 2:38:31 PM

Crude oil finished -.825 at 61.80, natgas -.185 at 7.295. Chart of crude oil at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/10/2006 2:37:53 PM


Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 2:36:55 PM

Well folks ... I'm going to call it a week. I've been pulling double-time this week and I'm wiped out.

Jonathan's got you to the close. Have a good weekend!

Jane Fox : 2/10/2006 2:36:12 PM

Here is McMillan's weekly commentary. Do not read this if you are bullish (sic) The market actually made its high for this year just a few days into the year. If you weren't looking at a chart, you might not believe that, for the bullish media and brokerage barrage has been heavy. But, with this week's $SPX close below 1260, that put the final cap on a series of negative technical developments, and we are therefore officially bearish now.

When $SPX closed below 1260, that made a lower low to go along with a lower high -- establishing a negative, down-trending channel (see Figure 1). While the market did bounce right back after that, the bounce is still within the confines of that down-trending channel. In other works, with the market being more volatile recently, it is possible that we will see these bullish bounces off of support (1260, 1245-1250) and off of the bottom of the channel. However, as long as the channel remains intact, the trend is down.

The equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to well-defined sell signals this week. This is a big part of our strong bearish opinion. While they had toyed with sell signals recently, they did not confirm them. However, this time they have. As you can see from the charts in Figures 2 and 3, there is no doubt that they have turned higher. A rising equity- only put-call ratio is negative for the broad market. Also note that the NYSE/NASD chart has both ratios presently on sell signals as well.

Market breadth has not been great for a couple of months, and the last two weeks fit right into that bearish pattern.

Finally, volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) are in uptrends that began back in December. Despite some gyrating (the spike peak and subsequent drop in January), the uptrend ploddingly persists (see Figure 4). A rising $VIX is bearish -- at least in this environment -- and so this completes a full complement of negative technical indicators.

Could we be wrong? Of course, but when all the indicators are in agreement like this, we feel comfortable taking a stance (a bearish one, in this case). As we wrote in The Daily Strategist yesterday, if you can't agree with your own indicators, then what good are you/they? Obviously, if these trends -- downward in $SPX and upward in $VIX are violated, that would be our 'stop out' point

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 2:33:49 PM

Volume breadth up to -1.7:1 on the NYSE, -1.55:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 2:20:51 PM

The short cycle indicators ran up to the ceiling on the move and price is stalling- it would be more potentially bearish were it not for the longer intraday cycles, which are still trying to shake off this morning's pounding and turn back up. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 2:09:47 PM

QQQQ pops to the top of its afternoon range, testing short cycle channel resistance. 30/60 min channel resistance looms overhead at 40.71. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 2:14:27 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... If I took $12.50 out of crude oil (from $63.00) I'd get $50.50.

$50.50 down from $63.00 is a decline of 19.8%, say 20%.

No, March Crude is down just 6.64% the past 20 days, while March Unleaded is down an impressive 18.68%.

I'd say some of that has been discounted the past few sessions. Wouldn't you?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 2:03:28 PM

QQQQ holds its .19 loss at 40.52, TNX +4.7 bps here at 4.588%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 2:02:57 PM






Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 1:45:08 PM

Was eyeballing DELL $31.71 +1.60% as a day trade short as it approaches conventional DAILY R1 ($31.82), but that sell program didn't even budge the stock.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 1:41:52 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $108.75, SPX 1,259.81, QQQQ $40.49

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 1:26:01 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 1:25:20 PM

Session low for ten year notes here, TNX now up 3.6 bps at 4.577%, still below FVX at 4.573%. TYX lags but at least it's back above the overnight rate, currently -10.7 bps to 4.536%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 1:23:04 PM

QQQQ has violated rising flag support but still holds its gains off the morning low, a weak short cycle downphase now in progress. Volume breadth has improved slight for the Nasdaq, -2.05:1 here. This looks like a corrective pullback within a corrective bounce, and volume is weak here as price trades both sides of the flattened 72 SMA. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 1:11:47 PM

Did you hear that? Oil analyst things $10 to $15 fear premium priced into crude oil.

This gives some confirmation perhaps to my thoughts of pinch refiners are under.

When that premium comes out, that's when the refiners will rock again.

What would a relative strength measure be if we lowered oil prices by $12.50?

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 1:03:15 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:58:34 PM

Magellan Midstream (MGG) $24.00 -2.04% ... IPO ... Company priced 22 million units at $24.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 12:49:00 PM

Back to find QQQQ returning to the now-flat 72 SMA, failing at lower high from what could be a small h&s top. Timewise, a h&s top even on a short cycle basis would be very early, as the next longer cycle, the 30 min, is nowhere near overbought territory. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:36:16 PM

Internet Initiative (IIJI) $11.61 +6.02% Link ... traded as high as $12.99.

Earnings press release Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:28:10 PM

General Electric (GE) $33.27 +1.06% ... percentage gainer among Dow components.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:26:15 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $108.84 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:25:25 PM

ICE $50.60 -4.51% ... session low still $48.96.

ICE-NJ $1.45 x $1.70 now. Traded as high as $2.40.

$50 - $2.40 = $47.60

Conventional MONTHLY Pivot is $47.33.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 12:23:06 PM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:23:03 PM

Google (GOOG) $359.65 +0.20% ... session low has been $353.14.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:12:34 PM

Oil Service (OSX.X) 200.52 +0.08% ... edges green.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 12:12:15 PM

QQQQ reaches declining 72 SMA resistance at 40.54, above which the 30 min cycle takes on a bullish bias. Currently the channel has gone flat at the bottom: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 12:04:14 PM

Volume breadth -3.4:1 on the NYSE, -2.85:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 11:58:05 AM

Still in a possible bear flag for the Qs, with the short cycle upphase beginning to tire. A break below 40.40 could be enough to kick off the next downleg: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 12:08:36 PM

Refiner problem right now ... OK, so we shorted a "top" in VLO and understand how the crack spread works and its impact on a refiner like VLO.

Here's the problem with a long.

Now I'm going to switch our relative strength chart around a bit, and put Continuous Oil $WTIC up against the Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) Link

See how there has been a MAJOR break higher? Above all of last year's relative strength resistance?

This is open to interpretation, but I think the "Iran premium" is what is really in play. Yes, Unleaded prices can rise with with oil, but the recent Iran going nuke news may keep a "relative strength bid" under oil.

Recent EIA data from our following of capacity shows that % Utilization is down.

It could be that unleaded gets sold as the yield curve inverts. Mr. Greenspan has said he doesn't believe the inverted curve signals a coming recession (I believe Mr. Greenspan). Still, just about everything has gotten sold since the yield curve got inverted just after 02:00 PM yesterday, even unleaded as the summer driving season is just around the corner.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 11:49:33 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $50.29 -5.07% Link ... Not in a "rush" to be buying calls, but checking out what traders are doing today. In October (after Red A) VLO didn't quite achieve that bearish vertical count of $41 (column of O from $57 to $50).

Option Montage at this Link

If a trader were to buy the Sept. $55 Calls, I would think you could do that, then on a bounce back higher, maybe sell a March or June covered call against it.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 11:37:55 AM

Volume breadth currently -3.7:1 on the NYSE, -2.5:1 on the Nasdaq- steadily weak.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 11:36:11 AM

Looking at some VLO Calls for September expire. That would get a trader into/past hurricane season.

Option Montage coming up ... Dn/Up ticks on both sides very bearish though.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 11:32:45 AM

March Unleaded (hu06h) $1.47 -2.64% ... "refined gold" getting crushed.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 11:29:37 AM

The short cycle has finally gotten enough oxygen to break up out of its trending downphase. Price-wise, the bounce is flaggy, but with the 30 min cycle so bottomy as well, bears need to be cautious if the move gets past the 72 SMA, currently down to 40.63 QQQQ: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 11:24:36 AM

S&P Insurance (IUX.X) 354.46 +0.58% ... only equity-based index in the Market Watch showing a gain.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 11:23:32 AM

ICE $50.23 -5.20% ... session low has been ... $48.96.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 11:20:45 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: Full inversion of the yield curve!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 11:06:54 AM

The bill pass is for 1.244B, bringing today's net add to 1.744B. Only 500M expires Monday- the rest is a permanent net add.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 11:03:39 AM

The short cycles are buried uselessly in oversold- only the wavelet, the shortest cycle I measure, is tracking the minute-to-minute oscillations. The 60 min cycle downphase has crossed the midpoint of its range and still points straight down, overpowering the bottomy 30 min cycle. Price-wise, support continues to appear at the 40-40.10 confluence, assuming the current lows fail. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 11:03:03 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:55:48 AM

iShare Russell Growth (IWO) $73.97 -1.14% ...

iShare Russell Value (IWN) $69.41 -0.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:49:43 AM

ICE $49.10 -7.34% ... "flush" ... $2.30 x $2.55 on the ICE-NJ. Happy Valentine's Day!

Don't let a nice gain slip away.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:48:59 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:48:05 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $37.42 -1.47% ... right back where we shorted it. Hanging on and still targeting $35.50.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:46:33 AM

Volume breadth drops to -3.55:1 on the NYSE, -2.42:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:41:13 AM

The Fed announces a bill pass, a permanent repo that will add to available liquidity. No amount known yet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:38:55 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $50.00 -5.62% Link ... good gravy!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:38:17 AM

New low for QQQQ, extending the oversold short cycle trending move further and testing the week's low at 40.40. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:35:43 AM

Session low for crude oil here at 61.975, -.65.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:27:55 AM

The implied Volatility on those ICE-NJ has jumped to 71.50

ICE $50.17

ICE-NJ $1.80 x $1.95. Did trade $2.00

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:24:20 AM

CME $391.63 -1.76% ... as a relative comparison

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:23:37 AM

Swing trade put filled alert with ICE $50.15 -5.35% ... filled on the ICN-NJ at $1.85.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:21:45 AM

Swing trade call exit alert ... not up-tick for $2.10 on the ICE-NJ, let's go market at the bid of $1.85

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:18:22 AM

Volume breadth -1.86:1 on the NYSE, -1.55:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:16:14 AM

Thirty year yield holds -1.7 bps at 4.473%, tenyear yield -3.3 bps at 4.512%, five year -2.5 bps at 4.516% and the thirteen week up 1.3 bps at 4.410%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:13:04 AM

We're offer at $2.10

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:11:16 AM

ICE $49.90 ... $1.85 x $2.00.

I didn't get a fill

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:09:20 AM

Close out put alert for the ICE Feb $50 Puts at $2.10

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:08:56 AM

QQQQ holding at the lows, but volume is dropping. As usual with volume, that can be read both ways- but price-wise, the bulls have to hold the 40.46 low. Below 40.40, this week's low will have failed, bring next support in the low 40.10 area into view. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:07:39 AM

ICE $50.00 ... $1.90 x $2.15

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:06:19 AM

ICE $50.70 -4.32% ... ICE-NJ $1.40 x $1.60 ... bugger is moving fast. Session lows.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 10:04:17 AM


10:01am CRUDE OPENS AT $62.85, UP 23 CENTS

10:01am NATURAL GAS UP 10.1 CENTS AT $7.58

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 10:02:59 AM

ICE $51.39 -3.01% ... quick option calculation with current implied volatility reading of 50.00 for the ICE-NJ at this Link ... Looks like we're losing about 7.5 IV each day.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 9:58:34 AM

I see the thirty year yield (TYX) quoted at 4.469%, down 17.4 bps, and now below TNX and FVX, and even the overnight rate, for that matter. All other quotes appear to be running fine.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 9:54:06 AM

A 7.75B weekend repo results in a 500M net add for the day from the Fed.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 9:49:49 AM

Awaiting word from the Fed as to its expiring 7.25B overnight repo. Due any minute.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 9:45:57 AM

Volume breadth -1.4:1 on the NYSE, -2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 9:43:20 AM

ICE $52.57 -0.79% ... gives up Wednesday's low.

ICE-NJ are $0.85 x $1.00

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 9:42:00 AM

Google (GOOG) 355.00 -1.30% ... gives up Wednesday's low.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 9:41:24 AM

QQQQ slams below all intraday channel support- usually the precessor to some kind of bounce. Of course, it looked the same way 15 cents ago on the first break, which suggests trending weakness here. Price so far has been a falling knife off yesterday's high. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 9:33:53 AM

Volume breadth -1.22:1 on the NYSE, +1.94:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 9:32:23 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 41.03 , 30/60 min channel resistance at 40.07/40.28, support at 40.70 (and 40.85 for the 60 min) . Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 9:06:42 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle has grown bottomy, while the 60 min cycle has yet to reach its midpoint and has potentially hours to run. The daily and weekly cycle downphases continue. This would be the earliest time at which to expect a bounce, based on the oversold 30 min cycle. If current price support does not hold, we could see the beginning of trending 30 min cycle downphase, which would be very bearish. I will update the intraday price levels when they refresh at the opening bell.

Jane Fox : 2/10/2006 8:58:06 AM

Here is the WSJ version of the 8:30 economic numbers. The U.S. trade deficit worsened slightly in December as consumer goods imports surged even as exports edged higher. The shortfall for all of 2005 rose nearly 18% to a record.

The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services widened to $65.68 billion for the month from a revised $64.69 billion in November, the Commerce Department said Friday. November's shortfall was previously estimated at $64.21 billion. The December shortfall in trade was wider than Wall Street predicted. A survey of 23 economists had forecast a deficit of $64.70 billion.

For all of 2005, the trade gap totaled a record $725.76 billion, up 17.5% from the 2004 level of $617.58 billion.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 8:43:33 AM

Bonds hold their gains, TNX holding below the FVX. QQQQ is down to a .09 loss at 40.62, gold holding -5.90 at 562.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 8:31:28 AM



8:30am U.S. 2005 TRADE GAP 5.8% OF GDP, VS 5.3% IN '04

8:30am U.S. 2005 TRADE GAP RECORD $725.8 BLN, UP 17.5% FROM '04


8:30am U.S. NOV. TRADE GAP REV $64.7BLN VS $64.2 PREV EST


8:30am U.S. DEC. TRADE GAP WIDENS 1.5% TO $65.7BLN

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 8:23:17 AM

Bonds hold their gains at the open, TNX down 2.5 bps to 4.516%, now underwater relative to the five year yield, FVX - 1.1 bps at 4.53%. IRX is up up .8 bps to 4.405%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/10/2006 7:58:41 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1267, NQ 1660, YM 10908 and QQQQ -.02 to 40.69. Gold is down 6.3 to 561.60, silver is down .077 to 9.583, ten year notes are up 3/64 to 108 7/64, crude oil is down .025 to 62.60 and natgas is down .01 to 7.47.

We await the 8:30 release of the Traded Balance, est -64.8B and at 2PM, the Treasury Budget, est 8B.

Jeff Bailey : 2/10/2006 3:00:07 AM

es06h up 1.00 at 1,266.75.

See you in a couple hours.

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