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Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:30:39 AM

Decision NOT to sell NAKED the OEX 585 Calls on Tuesday ... 5-minute interval charts of the VIX (top) and OEX (bottom) with QCharts' conventional WEEKLY and DAILY Pivot levels at this Link ... I'd almost be willing to bet somebody was NAKED the 580's, perhaps something in the SPX and they flinched!

I'd rather watch a train go by than step in front of it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:03:47 AM

TRIN / OEX ... 5-minute interval montage with TRIN on top and OEX on the bottom. Added conventional Pivot Levels from QCharts Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:38:46 PM

TRIN ... might be a good tool for traders on Wednesday. General thoughts/observations I've had over the years ... 1.00 is a waterline, as in 1.00 is "neutral." I've calculated tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels as .... 0.46 (extreme buying), 0.63 (strong buying), Piv= 0.92, 1.09 (strong selling and above 1.00), 1.38 (extreme selling).

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:21:55 PM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.92 and set for program selling at $+1.24.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:19:42 PM

"Stuck In the Middle With You" ... es06h Link

... Well I don't know why I came here tonight

I got the feeling that something ain't right

I'm so scared in case I'll fall off my chair

And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am

Stuck in the middle with you...(As recorded by Stealers Wheel; J. Egan & Gerry Rafferty)

OI Technical Staff : 2/14/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 7:05:36 PM

I do keep up with average daily volumes at both the NYSE and NASDAQ Link

The Securities Broker Dealer Index (XBD.X) rose 1.68% today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 6:37:10 PM

Question ... Hello Jeff,

I really enjoy yr contributions to MM and the other newsletters in OI. Would you be so kind as to outline your technical and fundamental reasons for your ICE puts? This might be a good question to PUT, "no pun intended" , the question on the MM table.

Thanking you in advance,

Don

Reply: Hopefully I've been covering some of the technical reasons of late and we've seen the sharp declines in various "energy" stocks, some we've actually participated in on the downside!

The "fundamental" side of ICE is without question little different that any "broker" or "exchange." Revenue will come from trade generation/volume.

I DO NOT keep up, or know where I can follow trade volumes that take place on the ICE exchange. Not sure I could keep up or follow a composite volume on the CME, or BOT either.

However, here is what I quickly touched on today (see 12:14:47) and I can only speak to what I (Jeff Bailey) would, or would NOT be inclined to do.

First thought is that ANYTHING can happen in a 24-hour span. I want to stress 24-hours as it relates to the Crude Oil Market. I (Jeff Bailey) do NOT want to be shorting Crude Oil and holding a short overnight. Too much "geopolitical risk." At the same time, I wouldn't want to be LONG OIL as it is in decline mode.

In otherwords, I DON'T want to be trading the CRUDE OIL complex.

Yes, the BIG GUNS that can hedge risk, or have a trader at the desk 24/6, they can trade it all they want, but I think many of the "retail traders" like you and I are going to be headed to the sidelines, and VOLUMES are going to DRY UP.

This would be my "bearish scenario" for ICE.

I noted the other day an article regarding the NYMEX (competitor to ICE and CME) Link and there is a lot going on in the futures arena.

Here's another news item released this afternoon from ICE as they come to market with some new over-the-counter energy contracts Link

One could make the case that new offerings could create greater volume.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 6:10:22 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ...

Today's Activity ... Day traded long/bullish 1/2 position in Google (GOOG) at the offer of $347.50, but was stopped out at $343.00 ($-4.50, or -1.29%).

Swing traded put a full position in the IntercontinentalExchange ICE March $50 Puts (ICE-OJ) at the offer of $2.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 5:48:33 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... I don't know about you, but "the curve" caught me a litte off guard this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 5:17:10 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 5:14:46 PM

03:13 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled down $0.0463, or -3.24% at $1.3849.

March Crude Oil settled down $1.67, or -2.73% at $59.57.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 4:40:12 PM

Google (GOOG) 343.32 -0.68% ... pffffff ... not even close to trying to backfill Friday-Monday gap lower.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 4:36:24 PM

QQQQ went out at $40.87 +0.93% .... slightly bearish bias close (02:56:21 post. Same use of retracement as es06h)

Slightly bullish close above WEEKLY Pivot ($40.86).

Leaves me feeling "neutral"

Perhaps most market participants feeling a little "neutral" at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 4:33:23 PM

Thanks Jonathan ... slight bullish above the 1,277.23-1,277.83 levels (see 02:31:13 chart. I'll use settlements as a closing bias). That would be 1,277.25-1,277.75.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 4:22:36 PM

1278.25, +12.50, hi 1281.5, low 1263 for ES. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 4:18:02 PM

How did the es06h settle?

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 4:16:01 PM

IWO goes out at $74.87 +1.03% ... so did slip back below WEEKLY Pivot by the close. Slight bearish bias.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 4:14:45 PM

OEX goes out at 580.26 +0.93% ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow are ... 571.44, 575.85, Piv=578.82, 583.23, 586.20.

I think a NAKED CALL SELLER needs to assume risk to 586.20, especially if there have been a bunch of "inverted yield curve shorts" that look for cover if curve reverts tomorrow after Dr. Bernanke's testimony.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 4:06:41 PM

OEX Option Montage captured just prior to the close at this Link ... I show the OEB-BQ's having traded 7,120 contracts with low/high of $0.15/$1.00 today.

Will get some DAILY Pivot levels for tomorrow in a minute.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 3:57:57 PM

A third bounce off the 72 SMA today for QQQQ: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:53:21 PM

ICE .... very short term retracement observation. Take a retracement from Friday's low to yesterday's high.

Yes .... 38.2% retracement $51.85 also. Overlaps with our MONTHLY $51.84.

Specialist has his/her offer at $51.78.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 3:49:11 PM

QQQQ gaining steam toward 72 SMA support at 40.84 Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:47:00 PM

OEX 580.29 ... if OEX goes out at 580, then tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels ... 571.35, 575.68, Piv= 578.73, 583.06, 586.11.

For a NAKED call sell and after seeing a trade at WEEKLY R1 today, I'd rather look for an OEX jump, then decline back below a level if I'm going to SELL NAKED at this point.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 3:45:37 PM

QQQQ - Stop Loss Adjustment Alert -

QQQQ short from 40.99, move stop to breakeven

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:44:25 PM

ICE alert $51.75 -1.87% ... might be a "long liquidator" into the close.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 3:41:37 PM

QQQQ daily chart at this Link , some daily cycle indicators looking bottomy but downphase still in progress.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:28:36 PM

IWO $75.04 +1.26% ... 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 3:21:26 PM

Volume breadth +2.55:1 on the NYSE, +2.65:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:18:42 PM

IWO $75.09 +1.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:18:17 PM

Buy Program Premium DIA $110.38, SPX 1,275.56, OEX 580.37, QQQQ $40.96

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:16:23 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:05:01 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 3:01:29 PM

IWO $75.20 +1.48% ... reclaims its 21-day SMA ($75.02)

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 3:00:22 PM

Volume breadth up to +2.8:1 on the NYSE, +3.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:58:28 PM

Ooooooeeee #2 ... Look at ICE on Level II. Sure looks like shorts moving in, bids getting smaller as session progresses.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:57:10 PM

Google (GOOG) $345.59 -0.03% ... buyer (new long or covering shorts) don't look all that aggressive.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:56:21 PM

QQQQ $40.94 +1.13% ... as good a place as any to be looking short ... daily interval bar chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 2:53:48 PM

QQQQ holding above yesterday's gap resistance, the wavelet downphase getting no traction. I'm comfortable leaving the stop at 41.08, but bears need to see more downside on this pullback. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:45:07 PM

Bond market closes in 15-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:44:46 PM

All a long/short trader can do right here is watch and have a plan in place to protect themselves.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:44:04 PM

Ooooooeeee! .... 5-year 4.597% .... 30-year 4.595%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:40:22 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:31:13 PM

Updated (es06h) chart ... daily interval Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 2:30:37 PM

This should mark a short cycle top within a 30 min cycle top for QQQQ, though we'll only know in the rearview mirror. Stop is tight in case the bulls want to run above 41. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 2:29:26 PM

Volume dropping on this channel violation. QQQQ - Entry Point Alert -

Short QQQQ at 40.99 stop 41.08

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:20:38 PM

For the OEX naked call, I'm very hesitant to sell naked as the es06h gets back above 1,277.75. A bullish close above there puts the highs back in play!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 2:20:36 PM

Session high for QQQQ here at 40.91, channel and gap resistance, low for crude oil 59.70.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:19:15 PM

Swing trade naked call cancel order alert for at least today on the OEX Feb 585 Calls (OEB-BQ) ... Not worth $200 bucks at this point. (see prior MM notes).

OEX 580.52 +0.98% here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:13:45 PM

ICE $41.93 -1.53% ... 30-minute interval chart now at this Link ... MACD traders love this. Daily, 60-minute, 30-minute, 15-minute.

Looks like it should get "crushed" doesn't it?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 2:06:13 PM

QQQQ edging to a new high here despite a bearish wavelet divergence. 30 and 60 min channel resistance continue to hold at yesterday's gap resistance 40.91: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 2:00:04 PM

Swing trade lower stop alert for the 1/2 bearish position in the iShares Russell 2000 Growth (AMEX:IWO) to $75.30.

Watch that curve! WEEKLY Pivot holds at this point.

60-minute interval chart at this Link

We're short right in here, but this is perhaps the STRONGEST market (small caps) longer-term and overhead supply very limited in some of these thinner traded stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 1:48:28 PM

OEX 579.56 +0.81% ... juuuuuuust off session high of 579.97

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 1:47:50 PM

5-year 4.599% .... 30-year 4.590% ... if it reverst, could bring a bunch of yield curve shorts into the equity markets.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 1:45:38 PM

GOOG $347.06 +0.37% ... back to test WEEKLY S1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 1:37:23 PM

Internet Initiative Japan (IIJI) $10.30 -1.81% Link ... stock has simply gotten crushed since Friday's post-earnings release and $12.99 intra-day high.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 1:33:20 PM

The weakness was shortlived, volume bradth back up to +2:1 on the NYSE and +2.15:1 on the Nasdaq. Yesterday's gap from 40.91 QQQQ is still upen, but 40.80 has held twice so far today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 1:34:13 PM

Trader's Note alert ... Regarding OEX naked call selling of OEB-BQ and current OPEN MM Profiles.

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, tomorrow tend to be a bullish trading day.

With today's bullish trade in GOOG $344.89 -0.23% having been stopped out, my Market Monitor profiles are all BEARISH, and a trader that holds all of these trades SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY EAGER to be selling NAKED CALLS at this time.

Maybe catch an observation TOMORROW if you've got some shorts/puts currently open.

The above comments are relative to ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 1:26:42 PM

ICE $52.04 -1.32% ... 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY (Pink) and WEEKLY (Blue) pivot retracements at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 1:25:26 PM

Headline:

1:24pm MAR. CRUDE TRADES BELOW $60 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE DEC. 29

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 1:23:11 PM

Session low for crude oil here at 59.95, -1.30.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 1:17:03 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 1:07:40 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 1:07:14 PM

QQQQ loses triangle support and now tests 72 SMA support, the 30 min cycle upphase stalling: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 12:52:01 PM

QQQQ's drifted through linear support and riding along triangle support at the prior breakout zone. There's a tractionless drift lower on the short cycle indicators, and that looks bearish to me given that the 30 min cycle within which this is all taking place is toppy. Below 40.66, that cycle shpuld go to a sell. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 12:36:57 PM

Volume breadth +1.8:1 on the NYSE, +2.3:1 on the Nasdaq here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 12:23:40 PM

QQQQ testing rising linear support off the intraday low: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 12:14:47 PM

ICE $52.31 -0.81% ... energy prices weak. My "fundamental" thoughts here are that better part of energy traders are "buy side" oriented and with Middle East tensions, yet falling energy prices, trade volumes could really dry up.

If so, then bearish vertical count good put opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 12:11:42 PM

5, 10 and 30 year yield all up 2.5 bp.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 12:09:42 PM

Quick Option Calculation for the OEB-BQ should the OEX trade 582 today at this Link

VIX 12.25 -8.23% is plunging.

VXO 12.39 -5.41%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 11:59:26 AM

QQQQ filling yesterday's gap here, resistance at 40.91 where it lines up with the 30 min channel top: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:57:22 AM

IWO $74.69 +0.79% ... WEEKLY Pivot just ahead at $74.92

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:55:28 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $110.12 +0.98% ... push above WEEKLY R1 ($110.02)

Breadth positive at 28:2

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 11:52:21 AM

Back to find a sideways wavelet downphase, the short cycle indicators chopping sideways just below overbought territory. With volume breadth holding just under +2:1 for the Nasdaq, the action feels bullish, though the 30 min cycle is approaching overbought. 1st sign of trouble for bulls is a break below 40.54, the 72 SMA, which would stall that 30 min cycle upphase: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:29:46 AM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for the GOOG $343.00 -0.79%.

I had gotten stopped out of a short this morning just above DAILY R1. Can't figure this bugger out.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:28:39 AM

OEX 578.11 +0.53% ... I still want to sell naked two (2) of the OEB-BQ and they are bid/ask $0.25 x $0.30. I want to sell them if they trade $1.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 11:26:39 AM

Stepping away for a few minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:24:36 AM

GOOG $345.25 -0.13% ... session low has been $343.61.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:23:02 AM

On a day that looks like a good way to play some short covering, this action in GOOG looks as if some longs still want out.

Note the lack of New Lows at the NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:19:59 AM

Google (GOOG) $344.50 ... darts back under DAILY Pivot.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 11:15:46 AM

Volume breadth +1.3:1 on the NYSE, +2.05:1 on the Nasdaq as QQQQ challenges the previous intraday high, at yesterday's gap resistance: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:15:38 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Monday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:06:14 AM

Buy Program Premium ... OEX 576.79 +0.36%

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:03:15 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 11:00:19 AM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $109.57, SPX 1,265.10, QQQQ $40.62

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 10:50:31 AM

Volume breadth -1.1:1 on the NYSE, +1.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 10:49:13 AM

Google (GOOG) $348.00 ... day trader's chart (5-minute intervals) at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 10:44:49 AM

Crude oil -.75 here at 60.50 here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 10:41:36 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in Google (GOOG) $347.50 here, stop $343, target $354.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 10:35:04 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

I know for a fact that my QCharts Option Volume readings aren't correct. It would appear that QCharts is only measuring the number of options traded via CBOE.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 10:25:13 AM

Another attempted short cycle rollover for QQQQ, this time from the top of its range. Volume breadth holds at +1.7:1 here on the Nasdaq. 72 SMA support is up to 40.45: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 10:12:43 AM

Should be filled alert on the ICE-OJ on mid-tick at $2.65.

ICE $52.50.

I'm using $2.80 as official MM fill

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 10:04:03 AM

QQQQ holds above 30/60 min channel resistance, the short cycle indicators looking toppy here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 10:03:31 AM

Google (GOOG) $350.70 +1.50% ... moves above DAILY R1. First time we've seen this since a kiss of DAILY R1 on 02/02/06 at $406.55 was turned lower.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 10:03:14 AM

Ten year note hold their losses, TNX now up 3.7 bps to 4.620%, IRX +2.3 bps at 4.445%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 10:01:38 AM

Headlines:

10:00am U.S. DEC. RETAIL INVENTORIES INCREASE 0.7%

10:00am U.S. DEC. INVENTORY-SALES RATIO FALLS TO RECORD LOW 1.25

10:00am U.S. DEC. BUSINESS SALES RISE 1.2%, MOST IN A YEAR

10:00am U.S. DEC. BUSINESS INVENTORIES UP 0.7% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 9:55:36 AM

ICE-OJ alert ... Went $2.80 and got filled in personal account. Was $2.70 x $2.90.

Now $2.65 x $2.85.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 9:54:29 AM

The Fed has 6B in overnight repos expiring, and has just announced a 2.25B overnight repo to replace it, draining net 3.75B for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 9:53:01 AM

Swing trade put alert for two (2) of the IntercontinentalExchange ICE Mar $50 Puts (ICE-OJ) for $2.70. Work the spread of $2.60 x $2.80. No stop for now and targeting $42.00.

ICE $52.58 -0.30%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 9:45:52 AM

A short cycle upphase has stalled and appears to be on the cusp of a rollover. 72 SMA support is at 40.41, below which it should confirm. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 9:37:11 AM

Relative Strength Chart (Continuous Unleades vs. Continuous Light Sweet) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 9:34:58 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $48.30 -4.58% Link ... sets up for test of rising 200-day SMA Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 9:32:59 AM

Volume breadth +1.87:1 on the NYSE, +2.4:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 9:31:21 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 40.43, 30/60 min channel support at 40.23-.38, resistance at 40.59-.65.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 9:29:32 AM

March Unleaded (hu06h) ... down 3 cents, or -2.09%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 9:28:57 AM

March Crude Oil Futures (cl06h) $60.54 ... down 70 cents, or -1.14%

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 9:26:19 AM

Integrated Biopharma (AMEX:INB) $7.19 Link ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 9:24:35 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle is midway through its upphase, the 60 min cycle midway through its downphase... typical opex week action. The short cycle will likely turn out to be the key indicator, as the longer stuff is primed for a sideways day. I'll update the intraday levels when they refresh at the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2006 9:23:47 AM

Russia, France call on Iran to halt uranium enrichment.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2006 8:59:38 AM

DAteline WSJ It is unusual for a major investment firm to urge investors to steer clear of a big stock. It is even more unusual for a firm to tell investors to avoid 30 such companies.

But that is what analysts at Wall Street's Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are saying about a slew of companies, including Broadcom Corp., MedImmune Inc., Agere Systems Inc., Marsh & McLennan Cos., Janus Capital Group Inc., Salesforce.com Inc., and Emmis Communications Corp.

The worry: Over the next few months, analysts will be slashing earnings estimates for all these companies as employee stock options begin to be counted as an expense.

New accounting rules require companies to view the value of employee options as an expense. But for many companies, the full value hasn't yet been incorporated into analysts' earnings estimates, potentially catching investors by surprise when the revisions take place.

The earnings-per-share revisions also could trigger selling by the increasing number of investors who use quantitative-based models to guide their trading. These models -- used by more than 5% of all investors, according to various estimates -- often automatically program sales of shares when analysts slash earnings expectations

Jane Fox : 2/14/2006 8:56:26 AM

Dateline WSJ Consumers ushered in 2006 by opening their wallets and spending on cars, furniture, and electronics, sending U.S. retail sales up at a rate nearly triple expectations and giving reassurance of economic strength.

Retail sales increased by a seasonally adjusted 2.3% after rising a downwardly revised 0.4% in December, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Sales were originally seen 0.7% higher during December.

The broad-based January increase, with sales up in nearly every category, was the biggest since May 2004, when demand also rose 2.3%. The median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 0.8% increase in January retail sales, a closely watched gauge of how people in the U.S. spend money.

Consumer spending is a pivotal part of the equation used to figure out how the economy is faring. Spending makes up about two-thirds of gross-domestic product.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 8:35:02 AM

Headline:

8:34am PLATTS SURVEY SAYS OPEC JAN OUTPUT FELL 120,000 BARRELS/DAY

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 8:32:51 AM

QQQQ bounced and settled back on the data, but bonds got slammed, TNX now up 3.5 bps to 4.618%, IRX +2.3 bps to 4.445%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 8:32:01 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES UP 8.8% VS. JAN. 2005

8:30am U.S. JAN. AUTOMOBILE SALES UP 3%

8:30am U.S. JAN. GASOLINE SALES UP 5.5%

8:30am U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS UP 1.8%

8:30am U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 2.2% VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

8:30am U.S. JAN. RETAIL SALES RISE 2.3% VS. 0.9% EXPECTED

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 8:28:15 AM

Ten year notes hold their slight loss, TNX +.9 bps at 4.592%. FVX is up 1.2 bps to 4.586%, IRX +1.5 bps to 4.437%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/14/2006 7:43:25 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1268, NQ 1657, YM 10940 and QQQQ +.11 at 40.60. Gold is up 3.3 to 545.70, silver is up .145 to 9.26, ten year notes are down 1/32 to 107 53/64, crude oil is down .35 to 60.90 and natgas is down .115 to 7.13.

We await the 8:30 release of Retail Sales, est. .9%, ex-auto +.8%, and at 10A<, Business Inventories, est. .5%.

And, don't forget to wish your valentine a Happy Valentine :)

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