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Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:41:59 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+3.71 and set for program selling at $+1.24.

According to HL Camp & Co., OEX stocks that were sold the most during sell programs executed on Wednesday: HAL, SLB, ORCL, BHI, TWC, EMC, RSH, MCD, EP, CCU.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:58:55 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Refinery Operable Capacity and Pct. Utilization Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:16:53 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) option montage may well suggest some "Max Pain" manipulation into Friday's expiration, with the pain being inflicted on the Feb $40 Put (ZQN-NH) holders.

The reason I felt compelled to short an additional 1/4 is that after a trade at WEEKLY S1, I'm looking for sellers to be present at $39.27.

There was also some Mar $40 Call (ZQN-CH) action with a sell bias (bearish). Mar $37.50 Puts (ZQN-OU) had a buy bias (bearish), but the Mar $40 Puts (ZQN-OH) had a sell bias (bullish).

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:00:48 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... We were stopped out of the 1/2 bearish trade in the iShares Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) at $75.30 ($-0.47, or -0.63%)

Rounded to 3/4 bearish with a 1/4 position short in Amazon.com (AMZN) at the bid of $38.91. Stop on the entire position set at $39.65 with target of $35.50. Average cost on this position is $37.93.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 11:43:18 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... New 52-week highs for the Dow Industrials (INDU), Broker Dealers, Transports, Defense, 13-week Yield, 5-year yield.

March Natural Gas futures (ng06h) threaten 52-week lows of $7.03.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 11:32:02 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/15/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 4:17:42 PM

02:15 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlements at this Link

March Unleaded settled down $0.0001, or -0.01% at $1.3848.

March Crude Oil settled down $1.92, or -3.22% at $57.65.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 3:47:10 PM

Swing trade bearish stop adjustment once rounded to 3/4 position ($7,500 for $10,000 full) in Amazon.com (AMZN) , lets nudge our stop up to $39.65 from $39.20.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 3:29:50 PM

Swing trade short round up to 3/4 position alert ... lets round up to 200 shares even in Amazon.com (AMZN) at the bid of $38.91 here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 3:18:36 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link ... Fewest # of new lows at the NYSE since mid-January.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 3:11:54 PM

I will need to leave for an appointment during the next few minutes. Daily chart of QQQQ at this Link as the short cycle prints its first sell signal since this AM.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 3:05:46 PM

This could be it for this extended short cycle upphase- a break below 72 SMA support at 40.99 QQQQ confirms: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 3:02:58 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 2:50:03 PM

The right shoulder on QQQQ has extended further and for longer than a symmetrical head and shoulders formation would permit, and at this point the session high is just 11 cents away. That said, the short cycle is toppy here, and last Thursday's high provides further confluence resistance. A break above 41.35-.40 would be extremely bullish, but the bulls will have to mean business- resistance looks stiff from 41.25-41.35. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 2:44:45 PM

March Crude Oil (cl06h) alert $58.45 -1.88% ... just traded BLUE 61.8% of $58.38.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 2:43:28 PM

Volume breadth +1.35:1 on the NYSE, +2.55:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 2:40:29 PM

Deere & Co (DE) $75.24 +0.76% Link ... threatens a 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 2:38:58 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $71.56 +1.90% Link ... new 52-weeker.

Now that's a column of X!

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 2:35:23 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 11,057.53 +0.26% ... new 52-weeker today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 2:16:24 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $38.89 +1.67% ... session high.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 2:14:21 PM

Crude oil to a session low, -1.2 at 58.375.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 2:11:55 PM

IWO $75.30 +0.57% ... back to the bearish stop.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 2:11:12 PM

More than I want to... I should add.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 2:09:56 PM

If you were monitoring Level II on the OEB-BQ as the OEX sat at WEEKLY R1, then you saw the bid/ask come together at $0.70 x $0.75 and offer wouldn't budge.

Now the OEX edges down 0.40 and the bid falls away to $0.40 x $0.75

Somebody wants to sell that 585 call.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 2:06:12 PM

QQQQ is still in zone for a potential right shoulder of a head and shoulders top, but if so the current 41.10 high needs to hold: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 1:48:22 PM

Current treasury yields, firming from the morning's lows: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 1:47:03 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department will suspend sales of state and local government-series bonds until further notice beginning at 3 p.m. Thursday, the department said. Treasury is suspending sales while it negotiates an increase in the national debt limit with Congress. Treasury Secretary John Snow has said the debt ceiling must be raised by mid-February. The current limit is $8.184 trillion.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 1:48:25 PM

OEX Options Chain sorted by most active at this Link ... Now the 585 Call action shows up.

It wasn't there at my 12:03 screen capture Link even though the trades had taken place well before.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 1:46:37 PM

Headlines:

TREASURY TO SUSPEND SALES OF STATE, LOCAL BONDS ON THURS.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 1:27:11 PM

QQQQ has popped back above 72 SMA resistance in a new short cycle upphase, but it's reverting to the 72 SMA as I type, and today's only clear direction is sideways. There's possible a h&s top set up bove 40.77 support, which would roughly match a turning 60 min cycle at the top, but this is op-ex week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 1:19:17 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... Market participants do seem to be trading off the curve action.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 1:17:53 PM

Headline:

1:16pm BERNANKE TESTIMONY CONCLUDES

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 1:14:50 PM

Headlines:

1:13pm BERNANKE: IT'S IN CHINA'S INTEREST TO HOLD U.S. DOLLARS

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 1:12:17 PM

Headlines:

1:11pm U.S. FEB. HOMEBUILDERS INDEX STEADY AT 57

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 1:02:26 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 12:58:53 PM

Volume breadth -1.14:1 on the NYSE, +1.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:54:04 PM

Hmmm... That might have been the naked call sell trade.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 12:54:04 PM

Headlines:

BERNANKE: IMMIGRATION VITAL TO U.S. ECONOMY

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:50:36 PM

at 10:42:12, my Time/Sales shows 1,200 went off at $0.95.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:49:22 PM

Good Gravy alert! ... I'm showing QCharts and Ameritrade volumes of 15,023 (so it should be correct) in those OEB-BQ.

Was that there before?

DnTickVol 1,541 vs. UpTickVol 53.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 12:46:43 PM

Headline:

12:45pm BERNANKE RULES OUT ANY CHANGE IN FED'S MANDATE FROM CONGRESS

Isn't that for Congress to decide?

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:42:21 PM

Swing trade sell naked put place order alert ... place an order to SELL NAKED the S&P 100 OEX Feb $570 Puts (OEB-NN) for $1.05.

If you can watch things closely, then a seller would LIKE TO SEE the OEX trade WEEKLY Pivot, let the computers kick in. Then get a feel for TRIN and VIX action, look for the bounce to begin, then sell them.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 12:39:17 PM

QQQQ back to its opening levels, the 30 min channel back to a downphase while the 60 min holds its stall. The spike that shanked us out of our short has now been completely reversed, but the current low remains untested at 40.73: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:38:35 PM

"Oh good" ... the OEX 570 Puts (OEB-NN) show implied volatility a hefty 17.99.

Quick calculation is that a trade back at WEEKLY Pivot (remember we've traded WEEKLY R1 this week) would have these puts trading $1.16.

The 585 Calls (OEB-BQ) traded a high of $1.10 today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:28:41 PM

Hmmm... now go back and check out this morning's OEX Feb/Mar Option Montage. See how OI is almost equally matched at the Feb. 570 Put and 585 Call?

That hints at a "max pain" 577.50 settle. (1/2 of 15)

I actually like a NAKED PUT trade in the OEX more, considering the bearish bias of current OPEN positions.

I do wish we hadn't gotten stopped on the IWO though. That gave us some beta to work with.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:19:06 PM

TRIN 1.21 ... here's where I think we get some inflection points for an OEX NAKED Put/Call trade ... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 12:12:36 PM

Volume breadth +1.26:1 on the NYSE, +1.91:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:07:37 PM

OEX Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:01:44 PM

OEX 580.46 +0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 12:00:58 PM

TRIN 1.02 .... easy, easy...

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 11:59:55 AM

QQQQ holding a bounce from above 40.80, currently on 72 SMA resistance at 40.97, the short cycle turning up but clearly lagging the price action: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 11:53:39 AM

Headline:

BERNANKE: CONGRESS MUST DECIDE HOW BIG GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE

11:52am BERNANKE SEES STRONG GROWTH IN CAPITAL SPENDING

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 11:40:53 AM

Headlines:

[FNM, FRE] BERNANKE: CONCERNED ABOUT SIZE OF FANNIE, FREDDIE PORTFOLIOS

[FNM, FRE] BERNANKE: I HAVE NO VENDETTA AGAINST FANNIE, FREDDIE

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 11:32:51 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 11:20:44 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 11:20:39 AM

Need to reboot.

Jane Fox : 2/15/2006 11:09:33 AM

Here is WSJ take on Bernake's comments. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, delivering his first economic report to Congress Wednesday, declared that the economy has snapped smartly out of an end-of-year lull, although inflation and other risks remain. He left the door open to further increases in interest rates.

Recent economic barometers on jobs, production, retail sales and other business activity in January suggest that "the economic expansion remains on track," Mr. Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.

The economy in 2005's final quarter hit a rough patch, growing an anemic 1.1%, the slowest rate in three years, as lingering fallout from Gulf Coast hurricanes and the toll of high energy prices led to belt tightening by consumers and businesses. Most private economists are expecting good growth in the current January-to-March quarter.

High energy prices, a strengthening labor market where unemployment dipped to a 4=-year low, and a solidly growing economy could fan inflation pressures -- forces that the Fed will need to keep a close eye on, Mr. Bernanke said.

Mr. Bernanke, whose first day on the job was Feb. 1, said he agreed with Fed policy makers' assessment at their Jan. 31 meeting that interest rates may need to move higher. "The Fed judged that some further firming of monetary policy may be necessary, an assessment with which I concur," he said.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 11:08:45 AM

Volume breadth +1.8:1 on the NYSE, +2.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 11:06:56 AM

TRIN 1.02 ... after multiple ticks at 1.10.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 11:06:21 AM

Headline:

BERNANKE: CONCERNED ABOUT LONG-TERM PATH OF FEDERAL DEFICIT

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 11:04:19 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 11:03:29 AM

QQQQ returns to former resistance at 41.00 after a beautiful stop runner. If it is over, that's remarkably little bank for 10.25B bucks this AM: Link 72 SMA support is at 40.96, below which the 30 min cycle bias returns to bearish.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:56:32 AM

Text of Bernanke's prepared remarks at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 10:55:47 AM

Correction ... I deleted my earlier SPX option post. My data looks to be in error.

SPX 1,277.59 +0.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 10:53:30 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:50:17 AM

Headlines:

BERNANKE: ENERGY PRICES LIKELY TO STAY HIGH

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:42:40 AM

Stepping away.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 10:38:47 AM

Sell Program Premium ... OEX 581.36 +0.18%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:37:24 AM

Headlines:

BERNANKE: YIELD CURVE INVERSION NOT SIGNALLING ECON.SLOWDOWN

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:35:08 AM

Headlines:

U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 4.9 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 900,000 BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

U.S. GASOLINE STKS UP 2.2 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:33:53 AM

Crude oil down to +.1 at 59.675 here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:33:27 AM

From the EIA:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) climbed by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 325.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year, and are at the highest level seen since the week ending June 24, 2005. Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels last week, putting them above the upper end of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week, but remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. An increase in low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel) inventories offset a decline in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil) inventories. Total commercial petroleum inventories jumped by 4.2 million barrels last week, and remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:25:21 AM

With that big a repo, I guess the Fed can put any market wherever it wants to - the "printing press" effect. The questions is for how long. This move was counter to all the prevailing cycles that have been trackign the price closely in recent weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 10:24:12 AM

5-year yield down 2.3 bp at 4.578%, 30-year yield down 4.4 bp at 4.551%.

Surprised the IWO bear trade got stopped.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:23:40 AM

Nice bid in bonds as well, TNX now down 3.3 bps to 4.581%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:20:23 AM

This is the sharpest upside move we've seen in about 2 weeks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 10:17:27 AM

Swing trade bearish stop alert ... for the 1/2 position in the iShares Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) $75.30 +0.58%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:16:56 AM

Volume breadth +1.8:1 on the NYSE, +4.7:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 10:14:03 AM

OEX 581.04 +0.14% ... Feb/March Options Montage at this Link ... From the perspective of "Max Pain" theory, I like the BUILDING OI we're seeing the past couple of sessions in the OEB-BQ. Implied Volatility also up. Let's run some numbers.

Also... remember HL Camps "Option Expiration Game" Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:10:49 AM

Headlines:

U.S. DISTILLATE, GASOLINE SUPPLIES ROSE IN JANUARY: API

Marc Eckelberry : 2/15/2006 10:10:12 AM

Opex pinning QQQQ 41.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:09:56 AM

QQQQ - Exit Point Alert -

stopped out QQQQ at 40.99, breakeven

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:09:23 AM

Looks like they're gunning for our breakeven stop on a beautiful entry, right at the peak of the 30 min cycle. This should be a retest of the high to confirm the 30 min cycle top, but with a huge 10.25B net add for the day and Bernanke taking the podium, who knows.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 10:03:14 AM

Headlines:

BERNANKE AGREES WITH FOMC MORE RATE HIKES MAY BE NEEDED

BERNANKE: OUTPUT MAY 'OVERSHOOT,' CAUSING PRICE PRESSURE

FOMC SEES 3.5% GDP GROWTH IN 2006, 3%-3.5% IN 2007

FOMC SEES 2% CORE INFLATION IN '06, 1.75%-2% IN 2007

BERNANKE: UPCOMING POLICY ACTIONS DEPEND ON DATA

BERNANKE: ECONOMIC EXPANSION 'REMAINS ON TRACK'

BERNANKE SEES MODEST SOFTENING IN HOUSING, NOT SHARP DROP

BERNANKE: LOTS OF PROGRESS MADE IN REMOVING ACCOMMODATION

BERNANKE: PLEDGES TO FOLLOW GREENSPAN'S POLICY APPROACH

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 10:01:28 AM

ICE $52.10 +0.23% ... Option Montage found at this Link ... Not a lot of OI to assess. Implied Volatilities will/can really fluctuate intra-day. Can be helpful to benchmark from time to time.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 9:57:07 AM

A huge 12.75B repo from the Fed replaces the 2.25B expiring for a net 10.25B add. But demand for the money broke above the overnight rate for the first time, with dealers willing to pay as much as 4.53% for the overnight money- shows growing need for the funds on behalf of the Fed dealers, and slightly tighter liquidity.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 9:49:10 AM

Volume breadth -1.11:1 on the NYSE, +2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 9:41:54 AM

1st sign of trouble for bears will be a break above the 72 SMA at 40.86, which would stall the 30 min cycle downphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 9:32:35 AM

March Crude Oil (cl06h) $59.99 +0.70% ... updated daily interval bar chart at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 9:32:18 AM

QQQQ gaps down below 72 SMA support at 40.85, right on 30 min channel support at 40.77. 60 min channel support is at 40.64. Scalpers can take a 25 cent profit on our short from 40.99, but with a bearish bias on those 30/60 min cycles and potentially hours of downside to go, it's looking like a viable swing trade with teh stop at breakeven. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 9:26:02 AM

QQQQ's 30 min cycle points south from the top of its range, the 60 min cycle upphase stalling but not yet reversed. So long as price holds below the 72 SMA, the bias on the 30 min cycle will remain bearish. I will post the intraday levels when they refresh at the opening bell.

Jeff Bailey : 2/15/2006 9:22:42 AM

I captured both the March and April Unleaded Gas futures charts last night. It would appear that traders may be covering some short positions in the March contract (hu06h) $1.42 +2.89% Link while the April contract (huo6h) trades up $0.01, or 0.66% at $1.52 Link

EIA weekly inventory data comes out later this morning at 10:30 AM EST.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 9:15:49 AM

Headlines:

U.S. JAN. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DN 0.2% VS. UP 0.2% EXPECTED

U.S. JAN. CAPACITY UTILIZATION UP 80.9% VS. 80.8% EXPECTED

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 9:02:11 AM

Headlines:

9:00am U.S. DEC. CAPITAL FLOWS DECLINE TO $56.6 BILLION

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 8:37:24 AM

From the MBA's website:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 15, 2006) - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 10. The Market Composite Index - a measure of mortgage loan application volume was 574.1 - a decrease of 7.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 619.3 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4.4 percent compared with the previous week and was down 21.7 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 7.9 percent to 391.7 from 425.1 the previous week, whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 6.5 percent to 1636.7 from 1751.0 one week earlier. Other seasonally adjusted index activity includes the Conventional Index, which decreased 7.0 percent to 847.8 from 911.2 the previous week, and the Government Index, which decreased 11.2 percent to 117.8 from 132.7 the previous week.

The four week moving average for the seasonally-adjusted Market Index is down 1.6 percent to 620.2 from 625.2. The four week moving average is down 2.9 percent to 431.6 from 444.6 for the Purchase Index while this average is down 0.1 percent to 1727.2 from 1729.3 for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 41.2 percent of total applications from 42.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 29.6 percent of total applications from 29.8 percent the previous week.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 8:31:29 AM

Minor reaction to the data, QQQQ -.05 at 40.85, TNX -1.8 bps at 4.596%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 8:30:43 AM

Headlines:

8:30am U.S. FEB. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 52.8 VS 46.6 IN JAN

8:30am U.S. FEB. EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX 26.5 VS 27.2 IN JAN.

8:30am U.S. FEB. EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 5.2 VS 11.3 IN JAN.

8:30am U.S. FEB. EMPIRE STATE INDEX ABOVE CONSENSUS 18.1

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 8:21:32 AM

Bonds hold their gains approaching the 8:30 data, TNX -1 bp to 4.585%, TNX -1.2 bps to 4.602%, FVX -1.6 bps to 4.585% and IRX flat at 4.447%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/15/2006 7:27:13 AM

Equities are lower, ES trading 1276.5, NQ 1664.5, YM 11030 and QQQQ -.06 to 40.88. Gold is down .30 to 548.40, silver is up .012 to 9.335, ten year notes are up 3/32 to 107 25/32, crude oil is up .15 to 59.725 and natgas is up .055 to 7.17.

Today's the kickoff for Bernanke's 2-day testimony to Congress. We await the 8:30 release of the Empire State Index, est. 18, then at 9AM Net Foreign Purchases, prior 89.1B, at 9:15 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, est. .6% and 80.7%, and at 10:30, the EIA Petrol report.

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