Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2006 1:11:16 AM

Last note for XOM ... The CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 552.03 ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... 517.84, 534.21, Piv= 561.15, 577.52, 604.47.

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2006 1:01:51 AM

The Doctor said I need to get more sleep and don't spend as much time on the computer.

She said she might have to diagnose a new addiction. "Marketitis"

See you in the morning!

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2006 12:55:10 AM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2006 12:52:07 AM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/17/2006 12:35:29 AM

XOM ... Here's my "day trader's chart" for tomorrow. I'm pretty much ready to go, have a mindset for what to look for, some levels and Option Market Maker thoughts at this Link

Here's HL Camp's Link regarding the Option Exercise Manipulation Game. Camp runs on CST, I run on EST. See my cursor box? That's "Second" you start buying big blocks (a block 10,000).

As you read this, the "Fourth" step has now been completed. If there is any "predictable pattern" it is to this "fourth" step.

Remember that BAC call trade (09/16/05)? We sold those calls as if the "Fifth" step would take place and left with a modest 60% gain. If memory serves me right, I think the options finished up 200% at the close. Kind'a like the OEX 585 Calls did today.

JNJ (12/16/05) .... I watched that one a little closer, remembering the BAC trade. We did a little better there with a 100% gain. Didn't get it all I'm sure, but pretty good.

I'll slap a 5-MRT (5-minute retracement) on XOM in the morning. Upside only and seel where BLUE #6 ends up. See if it doesn't tie in with DAILY R1 or R2. Better yet would be WEEKLY R1!

Momma always said life was like a box of chocolates....

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 11:31:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... (header should read 02/16/05 Close).

Today's Activity ... Swing trade bearish stopped on the 3/4 bearish position in Amazon.com (AMZN) at $39.65 (1/2 was $-2.22, or -5.93%) (1/4 was $-0.74, or -1.90%). Stock traded a session high of $39.85 10-minutes into the session, reversed to $38.83, bounced to $39.71, closed $39.15. I'd trade the first 1/2 just as I did. Should NOT have traded the 1/4. Why? All that $40 Put overhead. Any thoughts on what took place today? Op-ex, Op-ex, Op-ex.

Swing traded SPECULATIVE long in the Exxon/Mobil XOM Feb $60 Calls (XOM-BL) at the offer of $0.35. No stop for now, and looking for some gain in the underlying toward the $62.50 strike. This trade came to me based on past "Option Expiraton Game" trades in BAC and JNJ. XOM caught my eye as I was calling out the most heavily weighted OEX components. Hmmmm XOM $60.00 and we've had some good spec call trades in the past. Since I was getting "whipped" in OEX, might just turn the table here and try a LONG CALL into tomorrow's XOM expiration. If Crude Oil will bid, then all the better?

ICE ... Folks, this stock looks like somebody is shorting it and trying to get a move going to the downside. The intra-day action on Level II looks to me like a "fake bidder" puts up his/her bid, then takes some offers, then starts shorting at the offer into whatever light buying is found. Then stops, and repeats the process, slowly working up a position. Energy futures do look to be active at the NYMEX, is ICE getting their share of volume? This I do NOT know.

I will confess that I've been doing a little shorting of ICE on my own, while still holding long the Mar. $50 Puts. This stock is relatively thinly traded and rare to see 600 shares on an offer or bid. A trader that is nimble can scalp some $0.50 to $1.00 moves rather quickly. Do NOT try and trade 1,000 lots. Stay small at 100 or 200. Heck, throw in a 50 or 75 share trade and get a feel for it (based on your commission schedule).

There's quite a few day traders trading this thing. Have some "fun" and watch your Level II (Listed and INET). Watch these buggers jump around. Stick a bid $0.05 above one of the INET bids and see if he/she will cancel his/her order, then suddenly appear $0.01, or $0.05 above you. If so, then he/she is probably a day trade short. When the stock bounces, stick an offer down in front of a INET offer, see if he/she goes away, only to appear with the same size just below you.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:28:46 PM

I didn't trade VLO or SUN from the long side as a day trade long because I had to monitor a day trade NAKED CALL in the OEX that I profiled and traded. Option Montage at the close at this Link .

It "made sense" to play the odds for an OEX back toward 580 this morning and SELL NAKED the 585 Calls for $0.60. Yesterday, I felt I "missed the trade" at $1.00 (last week I profiled the trade, then canceled it).

At tonight's close, if we hadn't called it quits at $0.85 (03:26:17 MM Post) that last 45-minutes of trade was hurtful to a NAKED bear and pleasant to a fully clothed bull.

I'll swear to you, when I was looking at the OEX components at around 01:50 PM EST, it sure looked as if a 585 NAKED CALL seller could say "We're in the clear. By the end of the day, 585 nowhere near."

But TRIN indications still didn't have the NAKED Calls out of the woods.

You're correct if you say/think ... Jeff worked like a dog on the OEX this week and got himself/me into a BAD trade.

I will also add, it was also the hard work that got myself, and perhaps you OUT of a VERY VERY VERY bad trade.

I would NEVER hold it against any trader that sees me getting squished between a rock and a hard place from inflicting as much damage, or taking the RIGHT SIDE of the trade.

One could say... the MARKET did it to the NAKED 585, 580, 575 CALL SELLERS today.

OI Technical Staff : 2/16/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:49:49 PM

05:12 PM EST Temperatures with March Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlements at this Link

One of the bigger trades of the day was in the refiners as the crack spread proved favorable.

Takes some notes here as I hope to use this observation in the future.

While we're coming up on March contract expiration and there will be some squaring into delivery, March Unleaded (hu06h) settled up 1.99% at $1.4124.

March Crude Oil (cl06h) settled up 1.41% at $58.46.

Ok... for today by itself, the "crack spread" was favorable to a refiner by +1.99% - +1.41% = +0.55%.

What? VLO $53.82 +6.42% and SUN $77.33 +5.80%.

Now check out the April and better yet, the JUNE action and crack spreads.

April Unleaded (not close to peak driving season) had that contract up +5.23%. April Crude was up a more modest +1.49%. Crack for today only was again favorable to a refiner ... +5.23 - +1.49 = +3.74%.

Skip a couple of months to JUNE, which gets you into the early peak driving season.

June Unleaded was up +3.59%, while June Crude Oil was up a more modest +0.76%. Crack for today only on June delivery comes out to +3.59% - +0.76% = +2.83%.

After a couple of weeks of SHARP DECLINES for VLO and SUN, do you see how the "refiners can rock" when they get some crack spread back?

Yes.... a bit of a pun intended.

So... why didn't I trade it?

Stay tuned ....

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 4:01:51 PM

I will return later this afternoon/evening, but I have to leave for a Doctor's appointment.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 4:00:38 PM

QQQQ daily chart at this Link , testing rising trendline resistance from below.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:58:43 PM

XOM Option Montage at this Link

Squared at $60 call/put so it "doesn't matter" to market maker all that much.

$62.50 Calls ... market makers doesn't want it to go above there. Keeps it all.

Aha ... but if market maker can move XOM toward the 62.50 Puts, then that doesn't hurt.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:51:53 PM

XOM setup is very similar to past BAC and JNJ.

Trades right at a strike, but the "Max Pain" looks higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:46:31 PM

Go offer alert ... on the XOM-BL at $0.35.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:42:10 PM

Option Manipulation Game long call alert ... Speculative ... Let's take three (3) of the XOM Feb $60 Calls (XOM-BL) for $0.30. Bid/offer is $0.25 x $0.35.

XOM $60.05 ... I think it goes $61.25 tomorrow.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 3:40:12 PM

QQQQ clears 72 SMA resistance here as the short cycle begins to top out. So far the prior high hasn't been tested, but a single buy program could do it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:37:46 PM

Check out the OI in the XOM Feb. $60 Call/Puts.

I'm looking at playing a speculative long in the $60 Calls for $0.35 per contract.

Hey... if the OEX can go $1.10, why not XOM?

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:29:12 PM

OEX 585 Naked Call alert ... I hate taking losses, but if you've never had the "pleasure" of ending up NAKED and OUT-THE-MONEY on an index option, it is worth a $0.25 loss/contract to NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH IT.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:26:17 PM

Swing trade naked call close out alert the OEB-BQ ... for $0.85 ... bid/offer is $0.75 x $0.95.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:18:13 PM

XOM $59.91 +0.23% ...

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 3:14:18 PM

QQQQ's short cycle has turned up and the 72 SMA is being tested now from below. This looks like a retest of the 30/60 min cycle highs shaping up- bulls need to break the prior high, while bears need a quick failure from a lower intraday high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 3:02:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 3:02:48 PM

Closing treasury yields at this Link , TYX closing below TNX again, FVX just .2 bps lower than TNX.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 3:00:46 PM

LITTLE ROCK, Ark., Feb 16 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve would have to see signs the economy was "really slowing down" and inflation pressures easing to end its tightening campaign, St Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said on Thursday.

He stressed that policy depends on the path of incoming data.

"We would have to see a string of new data observations that (are) coming in on the low side of expectations and we regarded as indicating that the economy (was) really slowing down and inflation pressure coming off," Poole said in response to a question about what it would take for the Fed to stop raising interest rates.

He noted that recent economic news including retail sales and housing starts have come in above expectations.

"Fed policy is going to be unpredictable ... we cannot predict those economic events that are ultimately driving policy," he said after a speech.


Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:58:39 PM

I say "lack of selling in equities as I saw the DIA/INDU slip red for a moment.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:57:40 PM

TRIN alert 0.62 ... session low.

OEB-BQ are $0.65 x $0.75

TRIN sugggest LACK OF SELLING in EQUITIES and buyers may be sucking in some shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:51:30 PM

ICE 51.10 -1.69% alert ... Two different chart montage at this Link ... Humans on top, computers (WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Retracement) on the bottom.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 2:49:55 PM

Volume breadth +2.55:1 on the NYSE, 1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:41:27 PM

OEX Option Chain Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 2:38:48 PM

New lows for the Qs now, in a potential bottoming zone for the short cycle but with plenty of room on the longer intraday cycles. If the 41 strike fails as support, it could be a quick drop from there- but first expectation is for that level to show op-ex support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:37:09 PM

OEX Option Chain just taken ... sorted by most active.

Analysis ... Bullish at 580 PUT. 585 and 580 Call has "the look" of an eventual 582.50 "max pain"

NAKED call still doens't like the TRIN not elevating back up to 1.00 at this point.

VIX and VXO measures gives observation of put selling/call buying.

Don't go to sleep if you've got a Feb near/at the money option trade open.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 2:29:39 PM

Crude oil up to a .80 gain ere at 58.45, natgas +.05 at 7.115 with 1 minute left in the session.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:27:00 PM

Folks ... I can deal with holding a NAKED stock option at expiration, but NOT an index option unless it finishes WELL out the money.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:22:12 PM

Thanks Linda! ... Linda sending me a reminder. She's the real OEX expert and I miss her!

Linda reminds me ... I just noticed your comment about OEX expiration tomorrow morning (see 01:02:59 PM EST), and thought I'd let you know that the OEX is one of those flukes--settles Friday afternoon.

She is CORRECT and I was incorrect regarding TOMORROW MORNING settlement establishment.

Still .... I'm closing out the OEX Naked Call before today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:12:10 PM

ICE $51.30 -1.30% ... back to probe morning low and DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:02:00 PM

What at $0.10 bidder wants is for a LONG CALL that has now seen $1.00 bid earlier today, sell his 10, 20, 30 or 40 contracts to us/you and give up.

2-hours left in the session!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 2:00:05 PM

Session low for QQQQ, the 30 min channel finally rolling over, this AM's gap 5 cents' from a complete fill. Next confluence support is 40.05 should 40.15 fail. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:59:39 PM

Swing trade naked call place order to cover alert ... with OEX 582.96 ... Place an order to BUY BACK the OEB-BQ at $0.10

Bid flickers $0.40 to $0.65 right now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 2:03:44 PM

XOM $59.72 -0.08% ... think some NAKED $60 Calls sellers?

DAILY Pivot right here at $59.61

DAILY R1 $60.14 ... XOM's high of day has been $60.19.

OEX naked call will set al_rt on XOM above there.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:52:41 PM

This NAKED call/put index trading into an expirationi is like watching/living a suspense thriller.

GE, XOM, MSFT, C and PG are the 5 lead characters for the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:50:14 PM

PG $60.48 +0.61% ... OEX heavyweight #5

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:49:44 PM

C $46.31 +0.12% ... OEX heavyweight #4

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:49:05 PM

MSFT $26.69 -0.70% ... OEX heavyweight #3.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:48:16 PM

XOM $59.82 +0.10% ... OEX heavyweight

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:47:48 PM

GE $33.19 -0.80% .... OEX heavyweight

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:46:40 PM

OEX ... "slips" lower to 583.42. .... heart beats a little faster here. Critical moment.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:45:46 PM

Trin ... comes 0.78

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:45:19 PM

See the "doji's" on 5-minute intervals for both the OEX and TRIN?

Something's going to give.

This is so computerized, it isn't even funny.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:41:14 PM

OEX 583.86 ... OEB-BQ $0.80 x $0.95.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 1:40:45 PM

Volume breadth +3.06:1 on the NYSE, +1.42:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:38:04 PM

OEX / TRIN Day trader's Montage screen capture (10-minutes ago) ... TRIN still won't come above DAILY S1. Here's intra-day Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 1:26:39 PM

QQQQ dropped another notch after my post, now testing 72 SMA support for the first time today. We're overdue for a 30 and 60 min cycle downphase- a break of that support would be the first step. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:23:00 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 1:16:51 PM

Another sideways short cycle downphase is in progress, barely any price traction so far- this isn't the sharp decline that QQQQ bears need to see- so far, more of a bullish breather than an actual change of intraday direction. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:05:11 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 1:02:59 PM

Afternoon option trader thoughts ... OK ... markets stronger than I thought and has me thinking this .... Should the OEX pull into DAILY Pivot and the OEB-BQ trad a $0.10 offer before 03:15 PM EST... close them out!

Then, turn and GO LONG these options.

We could get a push higher toward the close.

It is impossible to say if the 585s are overly NAKED, but official settlement isn't determined until tomorrow morning.

Retail ... you and I, aren't going to want to risk a higher open is my thought. Not with what we've seen so far today.

Did you read "The Option Expiration Game" theory from HL Camp & Company?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 12:59:23 PM

April gold is up 4.90 to 547.60 here, silver +.117 to 9.326, crude oil +.55 to 58.20, natgas -.025 to 7.04.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 12:58:09 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Treasury acted Thursday to avoid hitting the national debt limit and said it's "imperative" Congress raise the debt ceiling by the middle of March.

Treasury is suspending reinvestment in the so-called "G-Fund," an investment vehicle for a federal employees' retirement system. The action will free up $65.266 billion, a Treasury spokeswoman said.

"Without this action we would reach the debt limit today," spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said Thursday.

Congress and the Bush administration have been negotiating an increase in the current $8.18 trillion debt limit. On Wednesday Treasury said it would suspend sales of state and local government non-marketable securities.


Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:51:50 PM

OEX 583.80 ... TRIN 0.72

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:51:08 PM

Give me a sell program ... PLEASE!

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:50:20 PM

ICE $51.76 -0.42% .... low/high $51.20/$52.35. DAILY S2 marks the low. Daily R1 the high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:48:48 PM

It will be worth it if TRIN will gravitate back toward 1.00

OEX back toward 582.00

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:47:26 PM

Just what I wanted to do today .... Watch Level II on an option!

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 12:46:56 PM

Back. Volume breadth has firmed to +3.05:1 on the NYSE, +2.15:1 on the Nasdaq. This is a trending move for QQQQ's short cycle indicators, still holding their divergences but pinned just below the ceiling on the higher price highs, the 30 min channel still rising. It's the bulls' ball above the 72 SMA now at 41.38: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:45:44 PM

TRIN 0.71 ... having trouble getting back above DAILY S1 of 0.74.

OEX 584.08 ... sitting right on DAILY R1 583.78 last 40-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:34:02 PM

OEB-BQ $1.00 x $1.15

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:33:27 PM

VIX 11.78 -4.30% ... "this is it..." DAILY S2.

Need some call sellers/put buyers

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:32:15 PM

TRIN 0.67 ... below DAILY S1 (0.74) ... buyers strong.

OEX 584.18

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:24:43 PM

OEB-BQ alert with OEX 584.22 up 1.8 points ... $0.90 x $1.10.

Session high for this option has been $1.10 and offer has shown $1.15.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 12:15:35 PM

Stepping away.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 12:15:51 PM


Feb. Philly Fed index rises to 15.4

Bernanke sees rebound in productivity growth in Q1

Feb. Philly Fed new orders 12.5 s. 11.1

Feb. Philly Fed prices paid 30.5 vs. 44.9

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 12:03:00 PM

I'm keeping a close eye on my Ameritrade Level II for the OEB-BQ ... $0.70 x $0.90. 12,000 contracts have traded.

OEX 583.48 +0.18% .... up 1.11 point

Yesterday I noted somebody traded 25,000 at $0.95 and need to be alert much above that.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 11:59:21 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $52.51 +3.81% .... may provide some good near-term trading from the long side.

Word of caution is that while the March crack spread between Unleaded and Crude now favorable, these are both current month expire and we should expect some near-term volatility that may have crack spread then turning negative.

I'd like to let the stock settle down a bit, but like the June 55 Calls if I could get in the low $2.00/contract.

Unleaded inventories aren't that "high" on a year-over-year basis. My opinion anyway.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 11:56:18 AM

A bearish short-cycle Macd divergence is printing, and this should be a clean short entry here with a stop above the channels at 41.51, but my gut doesn't trust it- could be op-ex anxiety, but the decline is awfully slow given the channel touch and short cycle divergence: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 11:54:01 AM

MOSCOW - Russia's top military chief on Thursday warned the United States against launching a military strike against Iran and a top diplomat voiced hope that close cooperation with China could help resolve the Tehran nuclear crisis.

With tension mounting over Iran's nuclear programs, Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, the chief of Russia's general staff, warned the United States against attacking Iran.


Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 11:42:13 AM

Same setup, cyclewise, as the opening morning high, QQQQ testing upper 30 min channel resistance, the short cycle indicators toppy but not maxxed out: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 11:40:38 AM

Google (GOOG) 354.41 +3.57% ....

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 11:39:04 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 11:32:55 AM

QQQQ approaching the prior high but on very tame volume breadth, +1.23:1. QQQQ total volume today is weak at 34M so far, but price remains up, the pullbacks shallow at worst. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 11:18:27 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 11:07:26 AM

Still no test of the 72 SMA, and the short cycle downphase for QQQQ is proving weak and entirely corrective- so far bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 11:01:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 10:53:23 AM

Volume breadth +2:1 on the NYSE, +1.05:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:46:17 AM

VIX ... 12.15 -1.29% ... DAILY Pivot Levels ... 11.75, 12.04, Piv= 12.49, 12.78, 13.23.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 10:40:45 AM

QQQQ retests gap support in a short cycle downphase. The 30 min cycle upphase has slowed, but 72 SMA support remains untested at 41.15, the downphase delayed. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 10:30:16 AM

From the EIA website:

Working gas in storage was 2,266 Bcf as of Friday, February 10, 2006, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 102 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 444 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 691 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,575 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 375 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 70 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 222 Bcf above the 5-year average of 481 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 21 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 94 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 11 Bcf. At 2,266 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:30:06 AM

ICE $51.55 -0.82% ... session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:29:00 AM

El Paso (EP) $12.76 +3.06% ... jumping higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:28:24 AM

TRIN 0.80 ... low/high has been 0.73/1.08. DAILY Pivot Levels ... 0.416, 0.743, Piv=1.06, 1.43, 1.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 10:26:38 AM

Crude oil trades +.55 at 58.20, natgas +.125 at 7.19 with 4 minutes until the EIA Natgas storage report.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:26:18 AM

OEX Option Montage at this Link ... The "game" here is that options market maker keeps the OEX below 585.

As each hour passes today, 585 Call premium slips away.

That's also "the bet" for a naked call seller.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 10:16:38 AM

15 min chart of QQQ at this Link confirms resistance at today's high. If that resistance breaks, channel resistance points to 41.75-.80 next.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:14:14 AM

I don't see today's EIA Nat. Gas storage report being a "market mover."

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:10:51 AM

OEX ... Day trader's chart with QCharts' WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot levels at this

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 10:03:17 AM

Volume breadth is down to +2:1 on the NYSE, 1:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:02:04 AM

OEX 582.19 -0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 10:01:37 AM

Swing trade sell naked calls alert ... let's sell three (3) of the OEX Feb. 585 Calls (OEB-BQ) at the bid of $0.60.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 10:01:17 AM

Session low for QQQQ, heading into the gap. 72 SMA support is at 41.10, a break below which should be enough to kick off a bearish divergent 30 min cycle downphase. But this is op-ex week, and if typically reliable oscillator setups are going to fail, it's most likely during op-ex. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:59:01 AM

ICE $52.00 ... low/high has been $51.85/$52.28.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:55:05 AM

Relative Strength update of Continuous Unleaded vs. Continuous Oil Link .... Nice reversal, almost like a "low pole warning."

I'm also following both the June Unleaded and Crude Oil futures contracts (5-day Net%) and (20-day Net%).

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 9:54:53 AM

A 9.75B overnight repo just announced leaves the Fed's open market desk with a net wash for the day, but the stop out rate held at 4.46%, still 4 bps below the overnight target rate, suggesting a little extra liquidity today for the dealers.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:51:59 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $39.26 (unch) ... back to test WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:48:54 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $39.65 +0.99% ... "bad tick" to $40.00. Session high has been $39.85.

Tab Gilles : 2/16/2006 9:48:38 AM

T. Boone Pickens, oil guru, just on CNBC. Stated that he would not short oil here and that it will go higher. He currently is not buying it here, but it could go a bit lower. However, longer term he said it is going up! Targeted upper $60 range.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 9:46:59 AM

Volume breadth +2.55:1 on the NYSE, +1.75:1 on the Nasdaq here as QQQQ chops along above 41.30 gap support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:43:51 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $39.53 +0.68% ... after early trade at $40.00 even.

Just taking some notes now.

Shorted strength (IWO), shorted weakness (AMZN) and both ended up losers.

Just taking some notes now.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 9:36:43 AM

Volume breadth is +2.42:1 on the NYSE, +2.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:36:01 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) too strong above WEEKLY R1 ... 30-minute interval chart at this Link (Prior to stop of $39.60) and current session high of $39.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:34:06 AM

Swing trade short stop alert for Amazon.com (AMZN) $39.60

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 9:31:12 AM

QQQQ has 30 min channel resistance at 41.23, 60 min channel resistance at 41.20. The 72 SMA is at 41.02, 30 min channel support at 40.98 and the 60 min down at 40.80. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 9:26:53 AM

The Fed has 18.75B in various repos expiring today, and has so far announced a 9B 14-day repo, leaving 9.75B to address in the short term announcement just before 10AM. The stop out rate on treasury collateral declined to 4.45% on the 14-day repo, showing a decline in dealer demand for the Fed's money.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:25:46 AM

S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link .... needs a net gain of just two (2) stocks to reversing PnF buy signals to reverse back up.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:24:26 AM

Bull Confirmed ... Wednesday's action had StockCharts' Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) Link reversing back up to "bull confirmed" status.

While just 30 stocks and very narrow, offensive team back on the field here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/16/2006 9:21:39 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $39.26 .... ticking $39.50 pre-market.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 9:18:42 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are both overbought and at lower highs against the higher price highs, a potentially bearish divergent setup if price rolls over from here. Price is at significant resistance, and so this morning is shaping up to be a critical test of the rally from Monday's low. I will update the intraday levels when they refresh at the bell.

Jane Fox : 2/16/2006 9:07:12 AM

Jonathan posted these numbers but here is WSJ take on them:New home construction surged to a nearly 33-year high during a record warm January, and building permits climbed more than expected at the start of a year seen as a time of gentle cooling for the housing market.

Housing starts increased 14.5% to a seasonally adjusted 2.276 million annual rate, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Analysts predicting a gain figured unusual weather last month would likely spur groundbreakings. The U.S. had its warmest January on record, with an average temperature of 39.5 degrees, 8.5 degrees above the 1895-2005 mean of 31, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The double-digit increase carried starts to their highest level since March 1973, when groundbreakings reached 2.365 million. The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Dow Jones and CNBC had January construction expanding 5.3% to a 2.035 million annual rate.

December starts fell less than expected, revised to a decline of 6.9% to 1.988 million; originally, starts were seen dropping 8.9% to 1.933 million. Torrential rain in the West and a snowstorm in the Midwest were blamed for discouraging some construction.

Economists have said they expect homebuilding to moderate this year because of higher interest rates and a fading of red-hot sales paces.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 8:35:59 AM

Equities hold their gains, QQQQ at 41.30, bonds ticking negative here with TNX up .2 bps to 4.608%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 8:32:17 AM


U.S. continuing jobless claims fall 39,000 to 2.511 million

U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims rise 6,250 to 283,000

U.S. weekly jobless claims rise 19,000 to 297,000

U.S. Jan. single-family starts up 12.8% to record 1.819mln

Effects of warmest January ever seen in housing data

U.S. Dec. housing starts revised up to 1.988mln vs. 1.933mln

U.S. Jan. housing starts blow past 2.02mln forecast

U.S. Jan. building permits rise 6.8% to 2.217mln pace

U.S. Jan. petroleum prices rise 6.4%

U.S. Jan. housing starts highest since 1973

U.S. Jan. import price index rises 1.3% vs. 1.0% expected

U.S. Jan. housing starts rise 14.5% to 2.276mln pace

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 8:25:15 AM

Ten year notes are up 5/64 to 107 49/64, TNX -1 bp to 4.596% as we await the 8:30 data.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/16/2006 7:40:52 AM

Equities are up, ES trading 1282.5, NQ 1683.5, YM 10770 and QQQQ +.15 to 41.31. Gold is down a dime to 542.60, silver is down .016 to 9.193, ten year notes are up 1/64 to 107 23/32. crude oil is up .65 to 58.30 and natgas is up .12 to 7.185.

We await the 8:30 releases of Housing Starts and Building Permits, est. 2.023M and 2.068M, Import Prices ex oil and Export Prices ex ag, prior unch. and .1% respectively, and at noon, the Philly Fed, est. 9.2.

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