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Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 1:12:16 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.86 and set for program selling at $+0.68.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 12:26:10 AM

A RS chart of NEM vs. S&P 500 (SPX.X) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 12:25:05 AM

A RS chart of SUN vs. S&P 500 (SPX.X) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 12:23:43 AM

A RS chart of GOOG vs. QQQQ at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 12:22:20 AM

Cont. Unleaded vs. Cont. Oil at this Link ... I had a question on how this chart is developed.

I showed today's very round number April Unleaded futures settlement and April Crude Oil settlement. Simply take Unleaded, divide by Crude Oil to get your ratio. In order to chart that decimal, multiply by 100.

Friday's chart entry had "O" down to 25.00. Since this relative strength chart was in "O" we ask.... "did RS read 24.80 intra-day?" Since the answer is "no," when then ask... "did the RS chart see a 3-box reversal back higher to 25.60?"

The answer is "yes, and RS traded as high as 26.32." So, we would then chart RS up to 26.20 and stop.

Tomorrow we'll ask ... "Did RS trade 26.40?"

OI Technical Staff : 2/27/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 7:17:27 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Bearish swing strade stopped for AMR Corp. (AMR) at $25.60 ($-0.40, or -1.59%).

Swing trade put 1/2 position for Newmont Mining NEM June $57.50 Puts (NEM-RA) at the offer of $4.80, but fills on several at $4.73. Stop on these should the underlying shares trade $59.15.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 5:07:09 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 5:00:42 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 4:50:08 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with April Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

April Unleaded settled down 3.65% at $1.5500.

April Crude Oil settled down 3.04% at $61.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 4:05:21 PM

June Unleaded Futures (hu06m) ... I updated today's trade on Dorsey's PnF chart Link ... I say bulls give SUN June Calls another day, but will look to protect against "bearish triangle" with an established stop just below $74.00.

If refiner bulls are going to get any positive crack spread back, I think it will have to come from strength in the June (summer) contract.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 3:46:39 PM

Monthly Cash Machine e-mail alert Link ... NFI SHOULD BE CLOSED OUT

For any subcribers that have not closed out their NFI position. This should be closed out before close of the market today and no later than the NFI annoucement tomorrow.

Subscribers today should have been able to get out at the $1.20 NET DEBIT and some at a $1.15 price today, if they acted on the original blog.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 3:42:42 PM

QQQQ loses 72 SMA support here, the first break today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 3:41:45 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $98.66 -0.59% ... has been hanging in there all day.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $96.25, $97.50, Piv= $99.17, $100.67, $102.09

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 3:32:19 PM

QQQQ daily chart at this Link with today's rally retesting the rising resistance line again. Could be a right shoulder printing, but if so, bears can't afford to lose 42.00 resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 3:31:37 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $111.29, SPY $130.01, QQQQ $41.82, BIX.X 376.02

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 3:30:02 PM

ICE $56.32 +3.33% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels for this week are $45.27, $49.99, Piv= $52.87, $57.59, $60.47.

I I were long two (2) of the March $55 Puts, I'd try and get long 100 shares (get some hedge), but look to close out puts on ANY TEST OF WEEKLY PIVOT.

I think we've got a pretty good idea that there's support at $50.00 now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 3:22:15 PM

Newmont (NEM) $54.59 -6.04% ... getting whacked toward the close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 3:21:11 PM

Will do Jonathan ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 3:17:03 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 3:07:29 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... I've been having some connection problems all day. At $61.00, April Crude would be down $1.91, or -3.04%

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 2:52:43 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $77.01 -1.21% ... WEEKLY Pivot $77.59.

Valero (VLO) $55.34 -1.51% ... WEEKLY Pivot $55.44

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 2:50:43 PM

April Unleaded (hu06j) trying to make a comeback. Down 2.38% at $1.57.

Intra-day crack spread narrows with April Crude (cl06j) down 2.4% at $61.40.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 2:48:53 PM

Jeff, it might be worth checking out IEF options as well- the 7-10 year iShare. I haven't checked the TNX contracts in awhile, but the IEFs can be pretty liquid.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 2:47:51 PM

I don't show a bid for the 10-year Mar 47.50 calls (TNX-CW).

Strikes are increments of 2.5

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 2:44:17 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 2.7 bp at 4.594% after trade at WEEKLY R1 and session high of 4.600%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 2:34:50 PM

ZN ten year note futures are holding at their lows of the day, TNX now up 3.3 bps at 4.6%, still 4.5 bps above the thirty year yield at 4.555%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 2:23:02 PM

Have been looking around for a bullish "chip" trade, but can't find anything that compelling.

XLNX $27.25 +1.48% Link

ALTR $19.74 +0.05% Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 2:23:01 PM

QQQQ bounced from its first test of the day at the still-rising 72 SMA, and unfortunately for bears, the short cycle off the morning high is getting not traction at at all. A plunge below the 72 SMA could provide some thrust from the wider 30 and 60 min channels, but the benefit of the doubt clearly goes to the bulls above the 72 SMA at 41.74. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 2:14:40 PM

Volume breadth creeps higher at +1.6:1 on the NYSE, +2.65:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 2:03:50 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $111.21, SPY $129.92, QQQQ $41.83

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 2:03:16 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) creeps back near its mid-session high of 4.594%.

Currently up 2.2 bp at 4.589%.

BIX.X 375.73 +0.42%

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 1:41:40 PM

QQQQ still has that bull-flag look to it on the 15 min chart, but the intraday cycles are getting toppier. Volume breadth holds at +2.35:1 on the Nadsaq, the bulls still in control but with voluming thinning considerably at the top. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 1:26:54 PM

Foreign central banks took 10B of today's 40B 13-week and 26 week auctions. The 13 week bills set a high rate of 4.51%, yielding 4.625% and generated a bid to cover ratio of 2.02. The 26 week bills set a high rate of 4.58% yielding 4.754%, the bid to cover 2.13.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 1:15:44 PM

01:00 Inernals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 1:11:33 PM

Google (GOOG) $390.94 +3.57% ... retraces just more than 38.2% ($390.27) of its recent decline.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 1:05:07 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 12:56:56 PM

Somewhat of a "weird fill" on the NEM-RA today at $4.73. I'm showing 8 traded with low/high of $4.60-$4.73 so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 12:44:13 PM

Goldcorp (GG) $25.33 -1.51% ... Dorsey's PnF chart Link

GG with a conventional May-Jan retracement (blue) and a "bear fit 38.2%" at recent low close Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 12:24:21 PM

Whether it's the result of the synchronous 30/60 min cycle upphases noted earlier or the Fed's latest permanent repo, QQQQ has taken a strong run and is pegged at the highs. Volume breadth has relaxed again to +2.4:1 on the Nasdaq, still a very strong reading, and while the 30/60 min cycles should be in a potential top zone, I'd be inclined to treat this as a bull flag at least until a break below the rising linear trendline at 41.66. 72 SMA support is up to 41.53, below which a new 30 min cycle downphase will be kicking off. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 12:19:45 PM

Goldcorp (GG) $25.35 -1.43% Link ... I'm setting an al_rt at $21.00. If ever triggered, would want to check where NEM trading. If close to bearish target, would be quick to close out.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 12:13:31 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $55.64 -4.23% ... Bar chart with a conventional May-Feb retracement (blue) and a look at a Feb-$45 bearish vertical count (red) at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 11:51:49 AM

From the Treasury website:

The Treasury will auction 4-week Treasury bills totaling $20,000 million to refund an estimated $18,000 million of publicly held 4-week Treasury bills maturing March 2, 2006, and to raise new cash of approximately $2,000 million.

We'll see how the 13- and 26- week auctions go this afternoon, but so far, the Fed has been showing a great willingness to monetize treasury debt with this slew of permanent coupon passes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 11:47:44 AM

Session low for ten year notes at 107 41/64, TNX +2.5 bps to 4.592%, steeper against IRX which is +.5 bps at 4.487%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 11:40:05 AM

Yet another coupon pass from the Fed, this one in the amount of 1.2B, bring the day's total add to 3.2B.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 11:34:50 AM

QQQQ $41.81 +1.35% ... taking a hint from GOOG $387.75 +2.75% today.

Intel (INTC) $20.75 +1.91% not hurting things and atop this morning's most active.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 11:30:25 AM

Two buy program premiums in last 15 minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 11:25:43 AM

Stepping away.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 11:18:15 AM


April natural gas falls to lowest intraday level since March

QG trades -.535 here at 6.78.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 11:12:38 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link ... It would currently take a closing 82.00 reading for the NASDAQ 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back up to column of X.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 11:03:42 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 10:54:53 AM

Seriously doubt a GOOG $388 +2.82% pullback intra-day to $375.

X gets 2 squares at $384 today and has bullish vertical count growing to $488. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 10:46:41 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 10:42:47 AM

Volume breadth +1.6:1 on the NYSE, +2.1:1 on the Nasdaq, weakening but still strong. First sign of trouble for QQQQ bulls will be a break below the 72 SMA, still far below at 41.30. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 10:39:41 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $55.31 -4.80% Link ... Stop on the NEM June $57.50 Put (NEM-RA) will be $59.15 on the underlying at this point, with target at bullish support trend of $48.00.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2006 10:24:36 AM

Dateline WSJ New-home sales fell for the fourth time in six months during January, while inventories climbed to another record.

Sales of single-family homes decreased 5.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.233 million, the Commerce Department said Monday. December new-home sales rose 3.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.298 million; originally, December sales were seen at 1.269 million. Sales dropped 7.0% in November, rose 7.7% in October, and sank 2.0% in September and 7.1% in August.

Analysts say the housing sector is cooling after years of record-breaking demand. This view has held despite an earlier report showing January home construction climbed to a 33-year high. The surge in housing starts was attributed to weather -- it was the warmest January on record in the U.S., with an average temperature of 39.5 degrees.

Mortgage rates, still relatively low, moved higher in the final quarter of 2005, crossing the 6% mark. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.15% in January, according to Freddie Mac. That's down from 6.33% in November and 6.27% in December; still, it had been 5.71% a year earlier, in January 2005

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 10:23:51 AM

QQQQ chart updated at this Link , price holding well above 72 SMA support at 41.26.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 10:16:33 AM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $25.39 +0.63% ... Right at WEEKLY Pivot.

Stopped this morning at profiled stop of $25.60. Would think computers turned on for buying here.

If not, with energy prices lower, may suggest that more "overbought" internals sees buyers more focused on taking some profits on broader scale.

Yes, thought to tie broader market to just one stock, but my thoughts based on pure technicals with a little energy fundamentals thrown in.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 10:09:23 AM

10:06 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 10:07:35 AM

Volume breadth holds at +1.8:1 on the NYSE, +2.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 10:07:06 AM

Session low for crude oil here, -1.1 at 61.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 10:04:55 AM

Bearish swing trade put alert ... for one (1) of the Newmont Mining NEM June $57.50 Puts (NEM-RA) at the offer of $4.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 10:01:54 AM

By George .... Newmont Mining (NEM) $56.33 -3.04% Link ... Q4 Profit fall 67% on Higher Costs, Charges Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 10:00:45 AM


10:00 U.S. Jan. median new home sales price up 6.7% y-o-y

10:00 U.S. Dec. new home sales revised up to 1.298 mln pace

10:00 U.S. Jan. new home inventory up 2.5% to record 528,000

10:00 U.S. Jan. new home sales fall 5% to 1.233 mln pace

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 9:58:20 AM

The Fed has announced a 2B overnight repo with no expiries, for a net add of 2B. Demand for the money rose slightly, by 2 bps to 4.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 9:56:52 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $77.34 -0.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 9:56:17 AM

Google (GOOG) $383.76 +1.68% ... morning gap runs right up to WEEKLY R1.

Well ... that certainly looks bullish. WEEKLY R2 ($391.55) is right up there with MONTHLY S1 ($393.46) and I sure would like to get a Monday entry for a long at $374.12.

Question at this point is if GOOG will pull back to $374-75 area.

GOOG Mar $400 Calls (GOP-CT) are $7.20 x $7.30

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 9:47:16 AM

Energy futures all lower at this point. April Crude Oil -1.16%, Unleaded -1.24%, Heat Oil -1.14% and Nat. Gas -3.09%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 9:43:57 AM

Quotetracker's new beta has robbed me of its "ctrl-s" snapshot function. I will be clipping the charts manually until it's fixed. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 9:39:05 AM

Volume breadth is +1.85:1 on the NYSE, +3.1:1 on the Nasdaq at the open.

Jeff Bailey : 2/27/2006 9:35:19 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert for the 1/2 position short in shares of AMR Corp (AMR) $25.60 +1.60% here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 9:34:40 AM

Can't seem to save charts in Quotetracker this AM. Working on it.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 9:33:51 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 41.22, 30/60 min channel resistance being tested here at 41.36, support at 41.05-.09.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2006 9:22:22 AM

Dateline WSJ The bond market enters a week that could well enhance the inversion between short- and long-dated securities.

Normally, short-term rates are lower than longer-term ones, but there are a number of reasons the yield of the two-year note, at 4.73%, sits above those of other Treasury securities such as the 10-year's 4.58% and the long bond's 4.53%.

Chief among them are expectations of further rate increases continuing during the months ahead because of solid growth, and still-low core inflation pressures, a measure that excludes the volatile food and energy components.

The two-year note is especially sensitive to policy, so evidence this week -- within manufacturing, housing and inflation-data releases -- that underlines the need for further monetary-policy tightening by the Federal Reserve will maintain the pressure on it.

While the two-year yield is set to edge higher, gains in long-dated yields are likely to be limited by the expected benign reading on core inflation -- the chief enemy of longer-dated bonds, as inflation eats into returns over time.

"The yield curve could build upon its inverted status," particularly if core inflation remains low, said Kevin Flanagan, fixed-income strategist at Morgan Stanley in Purchase, N.Y.

The curve as measured by the difference between two- and 10-year yields closed out last week around a negative 0.15 percentage point.

"The curve inversion will continue until the Fed stops raising rates," said Michael Cheah, portfolio manager at AIG Sun America Asset Management in Jersey City, N.J. That is because the two-year-note yield will remain above the federal-funds rate, currently at 4.5%, until rate increases cease or the economy shows signs of slowing.

Investors widely expect another quarter-point rate increase in March, with odds of about 65% for a further move in May to 5%. Beyond that, the Fed is expected to pause as it waits to see how the data over the summer pan out. However, some economists don't rule out a move to 5.5% later in the year.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 9:14:26 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Auto parts maker Dana Corp. [d: dcn] said Monday it "continues to be in discussions" with banks about financing alternatives and expects to reach a resolution in the next two weeks. On Friday, Dana obtained a waiver from its lenders over its required credit rating on its accounts receivable securitization program. The shares fell 52% Friday to $1.51.

DCN is quoted +.53 to 2.04.

Jane Fox : 2/27/2006 9:12:26 AM

Dateline WSJ With oil prices back above $62 a barrel, oil stocks are in vogue. Exxon Mobil once more has surpassed General Electric as the biggest stock, with a market value of more than $375 billion, compared with GE's $350 billion. Microsoft and Procter & Gamble trail well behind. So do Citigroup and Bank of America.

But as a group, financial stocks -- not energy stocks -- dominate the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Banks, stock brokers, insurance companies and the like make up 21% of the index's market value. Technology is next, followed by drug and other health-related stocks, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates in Westport, Conn. Energy stocks, for all their gains, come in sixth, with 9%.

And that is good news for the stock market, because financial stocks have longer coattails.

When oil stocks are dominant, as they were in the 1970s, it is because oil prices are so high that other parts of the economy suffer. When financials are strong, it is because inflation and interest rates are low. That is great news for banks and insurance companies because it holds down their cost of obtaining funds. And low interest rates hold down costs and boost profits at most other companies, too. That is why investors love to see financials lead the market.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 9:00:21 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles are in synchronous upphases, the 60 min just getting started from above oversold territory, while the 30 min spend all of Friday afternoon running higher and is now reaching overbought territory. Price holds above Friday's highs and is set to open on a gap up. I will update the intraday SMA and channel levels when they refresh at the opening bell.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 8:25:10 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's biggest gold producer, said on Monday that fourth-quarter profit dropped due in part to legal settlements and asset write-downs.

Net earnings fell to $62 million, or 14 cents per share, from $190 million, or 42 cents per share, in the same quarter of 2004, the Denver-based company said.

Newmont's stock rose 13.2 percent during the fourth quarter but underperformed the CBOE Gold Index .GOX, which rose 16.8 percent in the quarter.


Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 8:22:01 AM

Ten year notes are up to flat here at 107 13/16, TNX qhoted -.2 bps at 4.565%, IRX +.3 bps to 4.485%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 8:05:35 AM

Crude oil holds a 75 cent loss at 62.15.

...On Sunday, Iran and Russia agreed in principle to establish a joint uranium enrichment venture, a breakthrough in talks on a U.S.-backed Kremlin proposal aimed at easing concerns that Tehran wants to build nuclear weapons. ... Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/27/2006 7:13:39 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1292.75, NQ 1685.5, YM 11088, QQQQ +.02 to 41.28, gold down 2.50 to 558.40, silver -.065 to 9.64, ten year notes -1/16 to 107 3/4, crude oil -.95 to 61.95 and natgas -.02 to 7.44.

We await the 10AM release of New Home Sales, est. 1.26M, prior -1.269M.

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