Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 1:15:51 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.76 and set for program selling at $+0.68.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 is $1.72.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 1:05:02 AM

Preview of Weekly Stockpiles of Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillates Table assuming no net change from prior week at this Link

For week of 09/02/05 and 09/23/05: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

I can see why Banc of America cited "warmer weather" for their comments on refiners today, with distillate inventory up vs. a year ago. I'm still paying $2.50/gallon for diesel to fill up the land yacht.

Unleaded stockpiles healthy near-term, but relatively even with this time last year.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:08:20 PM

Sunoco (SUN) PnF chart Link ...

Cont. Unleaded vs. Cont. WTIC PnF chart Link

Not much I think a trader (long/call or short/put) can do here.

My RS bar chart does show the 5-day SMA at 25.73.

EIA data tomorrow morning at 10:30 AM EST.

Should SUN trade my bullish stop of $73.85 tomorrow morning, even prior to the EIA data, this trade will be stopped. It is going to be close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:49:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Swing trade put lower stop alert ... For the Newmont Mining NEM Jun $57.50 Puts (NEM-RA) to $57.50 (stop if stock trades $57.50).

Swing trade sold naked one (1) of the Google GOOG March $410 Calls (GOP-CB) for $2.00. Traders can either used a stop on the option, but if I think we need a near-term hedge, I'll utilize 10-share bullish strategy (see 02/28/06 MM @ 09:54:37). Might even look for a long near $350!

Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in Baidu.com (BIDU) at $51.25. Stop currently at $55.00, targeting $40.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:09:57 PM

GOOG March/April $270-$470 strike option chain from earlier this morning (11:34:06 AM Post) Link

Things were evidently moving fast and I didn't crop the screen capture.

Here's the same option montage at today's close Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/28/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 9:54:37 PM

GOOG Naked put/call sellers alert ... Here is an intra-day chart (10-minute intervals) of GOOG and the GOOG Mar $410 Call (GOP-CB), where today I profiled a SELL NAKED call trade Link

If you SOLD NAKED OPTIONS today, you may want to review this work and have a plan in place.

The charts posted above and questions I ask (which you can easily answer) are based on the selling of one (1) March $410 Call.

Does a trader that sold 1 of the $410 Calls NAKED need to be able to buy 100 shares of GOOG stock in order to hedge him/herself to $410? Answer: No! In fact, based on today's trade, we KNOW that if GOOG trades $397.54 (today's high) that the GOOG Mar $410 Call would be worth $8.60. Ouch! That's $860.00 if a NAKED CALL seller needed to buy it back.

However, if a trader were able to buy 10 shares of GOOG as a hedge at $377 ($3,770.00), that 10 shares would be profitable by roughly $20/share, or $200 should GOOG trade $400.

If a trader were able to buy 10 shares of GOOG as a hedge at $377 ($3,770.00), that 10 shares would be profitable by roughly $30/share, or $300 should GOOG trade $410.

Now... a trader that sold one (1) $410 NAKED call for a credit of $+200.00, and were to need a hedge of 10 shares, that 10 shares would have to decline $20/share, or $-200.00 for the entire trade to be break-even.

BUYING the underlying in order to HEDGE a NAKED CALL is an alternative to using a STOP on the option, where your INTENTION was to sell a spike in Implied Volatility.

SELLING SHORT the underlying in order to HEDGE a NAKED PUT is an alternative to using a STOP on the option, where your intention was to sell a spike in Implied Volatility.

This "hedge" activity is EXACTLY how option market makers hedge the options they are making markets for.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 6:17:18 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

NYSE average daily volume for the month of February was 2.26 billion shares per day. Down 8% from January's 2.45 billion share per day average.

NASDAQ average daily volume for the month of February was 2.00 billion share per day. Down 7% from January's 2.15 billion share per day average.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 5:44:43 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 5:22:16 PM

Google Pivot Levels DAILY (for tomorrow), WEEKLY (current) and MONTHLY (March) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 4:56:38 PM

03:12 PM EST Temperatures with April Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlements at this Link

April Unleaded settled up 2.63% at $1.5907.

April Crude Oil settled up 0.67% at $61.41.

March Unleaded final trade/settlement was $1.5556.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 4:18:57 PM

Good luck for the future Jonathan!

A chart Jonathan e-mailed to me waaaaaaay back when titled "The Way We Were 1974 vs. today" ... e-mailed on 07/16/2002 01:42 PM Link

Keene Little : 2/28/2006 4:13:00 PM

Jonathan, I'm sorry to see you leaving the Monitor after today. Good luck in your next endeavor (endeavour?). I've thoroughly enjoyed your commentary both before I joined the Monitor as a writer and I think particularly after. You will be sorely missed by those of us who have followed you for years now.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2006 4:01:01 PM

What the heck! Just happened to ER?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 3:58:42 PM

Thank you, Jane, and to everyone who sent me their best wishes. I don't have words to sum up all of our minutes and hours together over the past ...nearly four years. I've spent more time here with you than with my family or anyone else. All the best, and acres of diamonds to all of you. I'll see you soon.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 3:56:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/28/2006 3:50:31 PM

Take Care Jonathan and make sure you visit us often here. We will all miss you a great deal.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 3:43:04 PM

QQQQ holds below descending 72 SMA resistance at 41.17- a break above will kick off the next short cycle upphase. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 3:36:38 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $74.34 -2.68% ... if it weren't for March Unleaded futures expiration, I'd be "pounding my fist" to buy some March $75 Calls.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 3:27:36 PM

03:08 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 3:12:49 PM

03:08 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 3:11:07 PM

New low for QQQQ here, testing Friday's low: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 2:48:32 PM

Session high for ten year notes here at 198 1/16, TNX now down 4.9 bps to 4.541%, spitting distance from the 13-week rate which is up 1.7 bps to 4.507%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 2:40:25 PM

Volume breadth -5:1 on the NYSE, -2.6:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 2:39:48 PM

I've got some type of computer problem that is eating up memory. I can't get a chart or a feed. I hope to be up and running by the top of the hour.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 2:34:24 PM



Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 2:26:25 PM

Fed Discount Rate Minutes ... Minneapolis FRB was the only regional bank not requesting a discount-rate hike ahead of Fed's Jan. 31 approval of quarter-percentage point rise in the primary discount rate to 5.5%, according to minutes released today.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 2:16:30 PM

QQQQ loses it here, returning to the lows on a break below 41.20: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 1:37:00 PM

Volume breadth -4.25:1 on the NYSE, -2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 1:33:47 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $51.57 -5.02% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $43.78, $48.32, Piv= $54.78, $59.32, $65.78.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 1:33:34 PM

QQQQ breaks back above 72 SMA resistance for the first time today. Next confluence is at 41.40: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 1:27:52 PM

Google (GOOG) $372.56 -4.59% ... has come back to test QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot ($374.12).

GOP-CB $3.50 x $3.70

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 1:16:26 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 1:08:47 PM

QQQQ bounces above the previous high here, approaching the 72 SMA from below for the first test of the day- above that, the 30 min channel bias will go bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 1:05:31 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 1:01:39 PM

Volume breadth -5.25:1 on the NYSE, -2.2:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 12:51:17 PM

March Unleaded (hu06h) $1.54 +0.65% ... I should note that today (last day of month) is expiration for this futures contract.

Today's "jump" in forward contracts may be artifical.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 12:28:03 PM

QQQQ holding along the lows in a so-far corrective upphase on declining volume. 41.20 is now acting as resistance, the 72 SMA above at 41.40. Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 12:06:04 PM

GOOG's decline as viewed on a 100,000 share per bar volume chart: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 11:58:15 AM

13-week rates (IRX) are up above 4.5% for the first time in years. On the monthly chart of the IRX (+2 bps at 4.51% here), we see a retest of 1998-1999 resistance taking place. 17 year monthly chart of IRX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:57:56 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... earlier comment regarding "April crack spread" was pointed toward 5DyNet% of Unleaded vs. Crude oil

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 11:50:44 AM

Session high for gold here at 563.20. Crude oil is up .15 to 61.15, natgas -.06 at 6.73.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:41:47 AM

I corrected the GOOG alert, but want to make sure you know it is GOOG Mar $410 Call (GOP-CB) $2.00 x $2.10

GOOG $355 here

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 11:41:23 AM

Volume breadth -4.5:1 on the NYSE, -2.5:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:40:09 AM

Correction alert! ... GOOG NAKED CALL

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:39:39 AM

GOOG $354 -9.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:39:56 AM

Swing trade sell NAKED call alert ... Let's sell one (1) of the Google GOOG Mar $410 CALL (GOP-CB) for $2.00.

I've got today's high/low at $8.80/$0.05.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:34:06 AM

Google Option Montage ... March/April $270-$470 strikes at this Link

I would urge GREAT CAUTION on buying this implied volatility, unless you need to hedge the underlying.

If possible, sell the volatility.

I would think GOOG hard pressed to regain March $400 at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:27:22 AM

GOOG screen capture 5-minute intervals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:22:41 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 11:21:49 AM

From the treasury website, a big drain on liquidity announced at 11AM- could explain why the Fed has been so generous with those coupon passes since last week.

EMBARGOED UNTIL 11:00 A.M. CONTACT: Office of Financing February 28, 2006 202/504-3550 TREASURY OFFERS CASH MANAGEMENT BILLS

The Treasury will auction approximately $25,000 million of 12-day Treasury cash management bills to be issued March 3, 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:18:51 AM

GOOG $351.25 -10% ... quick technical note intra-day. 5-minute bar chart would show that GOOG has not shown a close BELOW my BLUE 61.8% retracement of $349.50.

Session low (338.51) was right at the PINK 0% of $337.83.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:11:43 AM

GOOG 350 -10% ... one quick comment is that company's management regarding today's "surprise comments" will NOT be well received by managment. Wall Street tends to hate these types of surprises. Company's management should have probably outlined what they were going to discuss.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 11:03:21 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 11:00:03 AM

Session lows across the board, QQQQ at 41.13, 30 min channel support now down to 41.00: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:56:20 AM

Google (GOOG) 355 -9% ... has turned 13.8 million shares.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:53:32 AM

SUN $74.78 -2.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:50:18 AM

April Unleaded (hu06j) alert $1.57 +1.29% ... April crack turning "positive"

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:47:12 AM

Swing trade short alert ... for 1/2 position in Bidu.com (BIDU) $51.25 (limit $51.00, stop $55, target $40.00.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:46:29 AM

Volume breadth -5.15:1 on the NYSE, -2.15:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:43:17 AM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $31.57 -3.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:42:43 AM

Bidu (BIDU) $51.15 -5.9% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:40:41 AM

GOOG 356 -8.83% ... session low has been 338.51.

Too fast to even try and trade here.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:37:34 AM

QQQQ follows Gurgle south Link , finding support in Friday's range below yesterday's low. 41.00-.20 is broaad confluence support.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:37:07 AM

GOOG $340 -12.94% Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:35:51 AM

Google (GOOG) ... CNBC reporting that GOOG's CFO saying growth from here will have to be organic.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:34:19 AM

All I can find: 10:32 GOOG Google CFO: will have to find "other ways" to boost rev - DJ

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:34:16 AM

GOOG ... 364 -6.67% .... plunged to 355 from 395 in matter of minutes.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:33:05 AM

Anyone have the news on Goog? My quote screen confirms.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:32:26 AM

Google (GOOG) alert 356 -8.55% ... is this correct?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:32:23 AM


Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:32:00 AM

GOOG just got creamed.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:31:44 AM

Giant Industries (GI) $59.70 -3.42% Link ...

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:31:40 AM

QQQQ fails below 72 SMA and takes out the low, now back to Monday morning levels: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:30:25 AM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $45.96 -1.22% Link ... strong. 3-box reversal would be $45.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:28:16 AM

Tesoro (TSO) $60.40 -1.67% Link ... setting al_rts at $57 and $66.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:23:32 AM

For sure, Jane. Thank you. It's a part of me, too.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2006 10:22:33 AM

Jonathan I am so sorry to hear you are leaving the monitor. I truly mean this - it will not be the same without you. Will you visit us occasionally like Linda does?

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:15:51 AM

Light volume for QQQQ so far at 14.8M shares- strong volume is usually closer to 30M shares by 10:30 AM. Volume breadth is -1.2:1 for the Nasdaq, -3.8:1 for the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:12:59 AM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $24.85 -2.62% .... grrrr....

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:09:26 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $74.71 -2.21% Link ... Defensive on Banc of America's earnings revisions (see 09:39:38).

Today's trade at $75 negates the possibility of a "bullish triangle," but a trade at $74 would have "bearish triangle," unfolding.

EIA data tomorrow, but refining bulls need a bid in unleaded is immediate thought.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:08:41 AM

QQQQ breaks the morning low: Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:07:32 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Business activity in the Chicago region slowed in February according to NAPM-Chicago. The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 54.9 in February from 58.5 in January, the private group said Tuesday. The decline was unexpected. Economists had forecast the Chicago PMI index to inch higher to 58.6. Readings over 50 indicate growth in the region. The national business index will be released Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Magagement.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:03:21 AM



Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 10:01:54 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:01:47 AM




Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:02:39 AM





Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 10:00:59 AM


10:00 U.S. Feb. consumer confidence drops sharply -

9:56 U.S. Jan. existing home sales fall 2.8% to 6.56 million pace -

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 9:57:25 AM

QQQQ looks like it's flagging higher correctively, but the short cycle is due for an upphase, and if it gets any kind of traction above the 72 SMA at 41.76, the bulls could get treated to a retest of yesterday's high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 9:58:25 AM

Goldcorp (GG) $25.38 +0.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 9:58:19 AM

Bema Gold (BGO) $4.08 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 9:58:10 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $53.56 -2.22% ... breaks below "bearish vert count" 50% retracement ($53.86).

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 9:53:43 AM

A 3.5B overnight repo results in a net 1.5B add against the 2B expiring. Demand for the money rose, however, the stop out rate up to 4.55%, now 5 bps above the overnight target rate on treasury collateral.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 9:52:03 AM

The Fed has yesterday's 2B overnight repo maturing today, but that will be offset in part by the 1.2B coupon pass that's delivered today. Awaiting the day's new open market ops any minute.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 9:48:49 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 9:32:24 AM

Volume breadth at the open is -3.22:1 on the NYSE, -1.3:1 on the Nasdaq.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 9:30:56 AM

QQQQ's 72 SMA is at 41.78 , 30/60 min channel support at 41.65 , resistance 41.90 .

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 9:26:17 AM

QQQQ's 30 and 60 min cycles have rolled over and are in a synchronous downphase this morning. That said, the price traction has been minimal so far, and bears need to see a gap fill and break of yesterday's low to suggest that the downphase won't be just corrective. I'll post the opening levels when they refresh at the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2006 9:39:38 AM

Banc of America Securities cuts refiners ... Broker reduced its Q1 2006 estimates for the refining industry by over 60% due to a warm winter, excessive gasoline imports and higher refinery production year to date. (more)

Company-Q1 EPS estimate-Prior-Rating-Price Target

Valero Energy (VLO) $1.05 $1.54 Neutral $57

Tesoro Corp.(TSO) $0.64 $1.90 Buy $74

Sunoco Inc. (SUN) $0.35 $1.71 Neutral $85

Frontier Oil (FTO) $0.42 $0.73 Neutral $42

Giant Industries (GI) -$0.43 -$0.19 Buy $82

Jane Fox : 2/28/2006 9:09:27 AM

Dateline WSJ The U.S. economy expanded at a slightly stronger pace during the fourth quarter of 2005 than suggested by an earlier estimate, but a slump in consumer spending still held growth to its weakest showing in three years.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of all goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 1.6% annual rate in October through December. The revised reading was the second of three reports due from the government on fourth-quarter growth; a final reading will be released next month.

The slowdown is widely expected to be temporary. A poll of forecasters released this week by the National Association for Business Economics sees first-quarter GDP rising 4.5%, then settling into a 3.3% pace for all of 2006.

Joshua Shapiro of Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. wrote in a note to clients that neither the slow growth of the fourth quarter nor the robust rebound expected to start this year are likely to last. "Our forecasts for the subsequent three quarters of the year, which call for growth of a little under 3%, are more reflective of sustainable rates of expansion," he wrote.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 8:33:43 AM

Session high for gold, +2.7 at 559.80.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 8:32:16 AM

Equities dipped briefly but remain mixed, QQQQ -.05 at 41.67. TNX holds a .7 bp loss at 4.583%, IRX holding its gain.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 8:31:24 AM


8:28 U.S. 4Q GDP revised higher to 1.6% as expected


Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 8:27:01 AM

Bonds are creeping higher toward the 8:30 data, ZN bonds up to a 3/32 gain here, TNX quoted -.7 bps at 4.538%, flatter against IRX which is up 1.7 bps to 4.507%.

Jonathan Levinson : 2/28/2006 7:44:04 AM

Equities are mixed, ES trading 1293.5, NQ 1696.5, YM 11089 and QQQQ -.08 to 41.64. Gold is up 2 to 559.10, silver is up .08 to 9.68, ten year notes are up 3/64 to 107 47/64, crude oil is down .15 to 60.85 and natgas is up .015 to 6.805.

We await the 8:30 release of the Q4 GDP and Chain Deflator, est. 1.6% and 3% respectively, then at 10AM, the Chicago PMI, est. 58.2, Consumer Confidence, est. 104, and Existing Home Sales, est. 6.6M.

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