Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 3/2/2006 2:37:36 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+2.54 and set for program selling at $+0.49.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 today is $1.52.

Jeff Bailey : 3/2/2006 12:31:51 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $76.21 +2.84% ... no meaningful PnF action today. Closed right on its 5-day SMA ($76.21).

April Unleaded vs. April Crude relative strength finished at high reading of the session at 26.10, its 5-day SMA (25.76) and 21-day just above at 26.22.

On 02/17/06, the session before I profiled SUN as bullish, the April Unleaded/Crude Oil RS reached an intra-day high reading of 26.40.

Jeff Bailey : 3/2/2006 12:15:53 AM

Cont. Unleaded vs. Cont. Crude Oil PnF chart (0.20) at this Link ... "I think I can... I think I can..." said the little train that could.

OI Technical Staff : 3/1/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 8:07:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 8:02:14 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 7:26:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 7:09:59 PM

05:12 PM EST Temperatures with April Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlements at this Link

April Unleaded settled up 1.99% at $1.6224.

April Crude Oil settled up 0.91% at $61.97.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 6:50:26 PM

Google (GOOG) $365.00 +0.65% .... interestng close?

Today's closing Option Montage Link

Last night I put together this chart of GOOG Link , so for some perspective in the Option Montage, I placed horizontal GREEN around the $350 Strike and horizontal RED at $375.

NAKED Call Sellers ... hopefully you've noted MONTHLY Pivot and Monthly R1 (new this month). Now we understand the imortance of WEEKLY Pivot and role it played AFTER we SOLD NAKED the $410 Calls. Yep, it overlayps the BLUE 50% retracement, almost like computers are trading this thing, squaring up all that option action. It may have "saved our, your, my seat."

Today, WEEKLY S1 keeps things in check.

Pretty strong SELL BIAS in the $320 puts today. Hmmmm.... sell the premium and hedge it with a short at WEEKLY S1? That's what an institutional computer might do.

Until a level of resistance is broken that triggers an opposite reaction.

Big day for GOOG management tomorrow (Analyst Day)

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 4:54:56 PM

Google (GOOG) $365.00 +0.65% ... Daily, Weekly, Monthly Pivot levels for tomorrow at this Link . Daily High/Lows were made in first 20-minutes of trade.

Today's GOOG Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link

Note the DnTickVol for the Mar $320 Put and April $300 Puts.

Now look at yesterday's 11:29:17 AM EST Option Montage Link

Now yesterday's closing Option Montage Link

These three time shots could represent the "shock, reality, digesting" of yesterday morning's comments.


Tab Gilles : 3/1/2006 3:58:29 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Murphy is over sold here and a BUY! Watch for a break over $48 on the SAR. Take a look at Jan 45 '07 Call LEAPS (OBYAI). Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 3:56:08 PM

Google (GOOG) $365.00 +0.65% ... has had a tough time with its DAILY Pivot too.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 3:54:53 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $51.41 -0.01% ... slips red.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 3:16:00 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 3:03:22 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 2:59:06 PM

QQQQ $41.73 +1.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 2:57:57 PM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) alert 544.76 +4.12% ... WEEKLY R2 here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 2:18:42 PM

Google (GOOG) $362.65 (unch) ... GOP-CB are $2.10 x $2.20. I'm showing 2,409 contracts traded today. OI as of yesterday's close was 8,809.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 2:13:55 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $53.09 +0.32% .... cooling off.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 1:46:09 PM

Headline ... DJ- Russia-Iran Nuclear Talks About to Finish

No Major Progress in Talks

Iran to Continue Uranium Enrichment

Talks to Resume Thursday

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 1:19:54 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 1:06:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 12:59:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/1/2006 12:20:00 PM

Dateline WSJ The New York Stock Exchange has selected Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to lead its high-profile stock offering expected in March or April, according to people familiar with the matter.

The selection of four lead underwriters suggests the Big Board wants to spread the investment-banking spoils widely on Wall Street, giving business to a number of firms whose brokerage arms account for a large chunk of the exchange's business.

Merrill Lynch, which commands the nation's largest brokerage force, got the nod for NYSE offer even after taking the lead role recently in managing a secondary stock offer by Big Board rival Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. J.P. Morgan also served as a lead underwriter on the $550 million Nasdaq offer.

The NYSE's offering will be the first of its kind in the exchange's 213-year history. The Big Board is set to purchase publicly traded exchange operator Archipelago Holdings Inc. next week in a $7 billion deal, a transaction that will give the NYSE 70% of a new public company, NYSE Group Inc.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 12:15:42 PM

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) $56.60 +3.37%

Seeing Dow Jones headline....

NYMEX Member Blasts Exchange as Seat Trades 22% Below Peak

NYMEX Member Says "Losing Market Share" to Competitors

NYMEX Member Questions Wisdom of General Atlantic Deal

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 12:13:10 PM

OPEC Headlines ... OPEC President: $60/bbl is "Fair Price for Oil."

Enough Spare Capacity Among Producers

Oil Market Tightness Due to Lack of Refineries.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 12:09:54 PM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Operable Capacity, Percent Utilization Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 11:45:23 AM

Jet Fuel saw its 3rd consecutive weekly draw in inventory. Inventories fell by 1,116,000 barrels to 43,625,000.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 11:21:56 AM

Bema Gold (AMEX:BGO) $4.28 +3.63% Link ... Raymond James increased it rating on the stock this morning and upped its price target to C$6.10.

I'll have to get out my currency translator. (grin)

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 11:18:49 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/1/2006 11:15:23 AM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 11:08:17 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $110.30, SPY $128.79, QQQQ $41.38

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 11:07:45 AM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $47.50 +2.70% Link ... alert (see yesterday's Banc of America Securities)

Jane Fox : 3/1/2006 11:03:45 AM

Dateline WSJ KABUL, Afghanistan - President Bush, on an unannounced visit to Afghanistan, said Wednesday he remains confident terrorist leader Osama bin Laden "will be brought to justice" despite a so far futile four-year hunt.

Asked about the search for Mr. bin Laden, the mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, and the president's call shortly afterward for getting him "dead or alive," Mr. Bush said the search for Mr. bin Laden and his associates continues. "It's not a matter of if they're brought to justice, it's when they're brought to justice," Mr. Bush said at a joint news conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai in the capital of Kabul.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 11:02:55 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 10:57:37 AM

Headline ... 45 Killed In Raid on Suspected Al-Qaida Hideout - Pakistan

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 10:47:48 AM

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 534.87 +2.23% ... pops above WEEKLY R1

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 10:45:02 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $76.25 +2.90% Link ...

Valero (VLO) $55.07 +2.37% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 10:40:38 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link ... Crude Oil data does not include SPR.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 10:20:44 AM

01/31/06 to 02/28/06 Sector Bell Curve found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 10:05:12 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 9:55:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

GOOG ... for the Benchmarking of the underlying, I did change its #Shares to 10 in order to get an observation of what a "covered call" might look like if I had bought 10 shares for every 1 of the Mar $410 Calls sold.

SUN and VLO 5DyNet% have come together.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 9:48:14 AM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $110.32, SPY $128.72, QQQQ $41.29

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 9:42:05 AM

Goldcorp. (GG) $25.76 +1.21% Link ... As weak as Newmont (NEM) $53.51 +1.11% Link has been, other gold names I follow sure have held in their.

I view NEM as the "sector bellwether" and the group really tends to move in unison.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 9:36:16 AM

Google (GOOG) $367.00 +1.20% Link ... Yesterday's action gets X to $396. Unless we were to see a trade at $400 today, the bullish vertical count column (X $344-$396) should be established to $512.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 9:30:33 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $52.48 +2.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 9:29:15 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $52.92 ... ticks higher at $53.10.

April Gold (gc06h) up $0.50 at $564.40. Volume look unusually heavy at 6,375

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 9:24:49 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $74.10 ... ticks higher at $74.70 pre-market.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2006 9:24:10 AM

April Unleaded +1.25% at $1.61.

April Crude Oil +0.52% at $61.73.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2006 9:21:19 AM

Dateline WSJ Personal income increased during January but consumer spending recorded the largest climb in six months, holding the rate of savings in negative territory.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that personal spending shot up by 0.9%, the strongest gain in six months. Incomes rose 0.7%, the best showing since September, with the gains attributed to a variety of factors including cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits and the new prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients. Disposable personal income, or income after taxes, rose by 0.5%.

With spending continuing to outstrip gains in income, the savings rate remained underwater. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable income was negative 0.7% in January. The savings rate has been negative eight times in the last 10 months, and for all of 2005 the rate of saving was negative 0.4%, the first time savings has been negative for an entire year since the Depression years of 1932 and 1933.

Rising home prices have led many Americans to feel more wealthy in recent years, and equity extracted from homes has been used to underwrite spending. However, the Federal Reserve reported last week that even with the rise in home values, Americans' net worth rose over the past three years at the slowest pace in more than a decade. With interest rates climbing, refinancing has become less attractive and consumer debts more expensive to service.

Market Monitor Archives