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Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2006 12:22:02 AM

How's that $NASI looking that Tab likes to follow? 10-point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2006 12:21:20 AM

Not an NDX component, but it has 4-letters. Are you next? Link

I've got an eye on you too Link

And you Link

And perhaps you too Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2006 12:14:19 AM

Hmmm.... Not a NDX component, but I sense a "theme" ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2006 12:14:00 AM

Bear Confirmed alert! ... after a brief reversal back up to "bull confirmed," Wednesday's action has StockCharts.com's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link reversing to "bull correction" at 56%, and "bear confirmed" at 54% (as 54% is below prior column of O at 56%).

Culprits giving reversing lower sell signals today were AMAT Link

KLAC Link

LRCX Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 11:21:14 PM

Cont. Unleaded vs. Cont WTIC PnF chart at this Link ... It was a down, then ramp up, then right back down, then right back up trade for SUN and VLO today.

I sense one group of traders playing "the crack spread" and another set of traders using Oil's price fluctuation as the eventual outcome to Unleaded's price.

This could remain a volatile trade. Refiners like lower oil prices as that is a COST decrease. Yes, unleaded prices may decline as a result, but IF unleaded doesn't decline as FAST as crude oil, then margins can be healthy.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:50:49 PM

Speaking of quarterly roll. OEX 25-largest market cap components at this Link ... Last month's expiration I sold OEX $585 naked calls, but got shook out. Made it back with an XOM $60 Call play.

Both hanging right around those strikes into the quarterly expire.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:12:34 PM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+13.32 and set for program selling at $+8.88.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 for Thursday is $11.12.

Note: Sharp change in premium and Fair Value is for quarterly futures contract roll.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:08:54 PM

Planting a seed ... GOOG March Option Montage from 03/01/06 close (OI as of 02/28/06, which was day CFO made surprising comments) at this Link

Now tonight's GOOG March Option Montage with OI as of Tuesday's close Link as I try and "count cards" as to then vs. now.

OI Changes are as of 02/28/06 close. I also mark the PUT side of AvgOHLC to visualize what PRICE of the options have done since the CFO's surprising comments at Merrill Lynch's analyst day.

$350 has the look of a "max pain" settlement next Friday.

The reason I focus on the PUT side, is that's the side that took some guts to sell when the stock was falling sharply. The $320 PUTS were the ones we noted had a VERY bullish bias where DnTickVol vastly outmeasured UpTickVol.

Hmmmm... $345 in tomorrow's Pivot Matrix. $345, $345, $345. Keep that number in your head.

OI Technical Staff : 3/8/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 8:58:20 PM

GOOG March Options Montage with OI as of Tuesday's close at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 8:33:32 PM

China's Ministry of Commerce has set its 2006 crude oil export quota for foreign-invested companies at 8.92 million metric tons, one million tons higher than 2005.

The quota for CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) Link , an overseas listed company, is 8 million tons, up one million tons from 2005.

The quota for PetroChina (PTR) Link remained the same as last year, at 920,000 tons.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 6:39:44 PM

Daily/WEEKLY/MONTHLY Stock Matrix at this Link ... Wild intra-day trade for the refiners (SUN/VLO) today.

Are BIDU and GOOG joined at the hip?

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 6:32:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Day traded long shares of Valero Energy (VLO) at $52.87 and sold at target of $53.85 ($+0.98, or +1.85%)

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 5:47:11 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 5:38:03 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 5:37:53 PM

Bullish % for Oil (BPOIL) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 5:37:42 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $94.70 -1.14% Link ... Could be the "hammer" that drives "the Murph" into the turf?

Or will weakness give stability to strength and lead the inchworm back higher?

Adding MUR to the MM watch list.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 4:55:10 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link ... Good idea Tab! ... With a bearish vertical count to $33 (it pegged its bearish count at $42 in October), I think I'll set an upside alert at $50 (like I did at $46).

Will add MUR to the MM "watch list."

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 4:39:38 PM

02:12 PM EST Temperatures with April Nat. Gas and Heating Oil futures settlements at this Link

April Unleaded settled up 1.03% at $1.6502.

April Crude Oil settled down 2.53% at $60.02.

June Unleaded settled down 0.92% at $1.6913.

June Crude Oil settled down 2.17% at $62.69.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 4:29:44 PM

QQQQ $40.87 +0.04% ... $40.90 extended

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 4:28:59 PM

BiogenIdec (BIIB) alert $45.50 Link ... released for trade ... $49.46 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 3:59:43 PM

Elan (ELN) $15.76 +24.09% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $10.53, $11.50, Piv= $12.85, $13.82, $15.17.

Low/High so far $14.88/$15.92

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 3:54:37 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $79.52 -2.76% ... update

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 3:53:05 PM

Elan Option Montage found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 3:45:57 PM

Elan (ELN) $15.07 +18% Link ... released for trade.

Tab Gilles : 3/8/2006 3:32:08 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Appears to be ready to turn around. Take a look at Jan $45 Call Leap (OBYAI). Link

EIA reports Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 3:25:51 PM

03:12 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 3:15:23 PM

03:12 Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 3:02:47 PM

Valero Option Montage found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:48:26 PM

Drake thinks so... thinks I should have held.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:47:44 PM

Valero (VLO) $53.91 +0.50% ... get trade at BLUE #4. Back above DAILY Pivot.

Could ring out some day trade shorts?

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:44:53 PM

Bullish day trade exit/target alert ... for Valero (VLO) $53.85

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:42:35 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert for Valero (VLO) $53.70 +0.14% ... to $53.40

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:39:14 PM

April Crude (cl06j) -2.40% at $60.10.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:38:39 PM

April Unleaded (hu06j) back to test morning high

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:37:44 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $76.78 +1.59% ... after test of DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:36:51 PM

Valero (VLO) $53.74 +0.18% ... gets above BLUE #3

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 2:21:05 PM

Valero (VLO) $53.35 -0.54% ... gets trade at BLUE #2

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 1:55:27 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for Valero Energy (VLO) $53.00 -1.21% ... to break even

Either that test of BLUE #1 bids from here our we flop around.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 1:39:14 PM

June Crude (cl06m) -3.01% at $62.15, session low so far $61.90. Yesterday's I showed this PnF chart. Today we would chart O to $62.00 Link

This is not a "bull signal reversed," pattern (need pattern of 7 rising high and rising low, then the sell signal), but similar dynamics observed today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 1:35:46 PM

OPEC said early today that it would leave production unchanged.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 1:22:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/8/2006 1:20:59 PM

Dateline WSJ On the New York Stock Exchange's first day as a public company, its stock was among the most active on the Big Board, rising sharply on heavy volume. But many of the stocks around it weren't faring so well, highlighting a risk facing the NYSE in the months to come.

Beginning with CEO John Thain's purchase of 100 shares on their first day of public trading, the NYSE ended nearly 214 years of private, nonprofit operation. Mr. Thain, who bought the shares at $67, enjoyed a quick profit, watching them rise to more than $73. That gave the NYSE a market capitalization of nearly $12 billion, compared with just $3.1 billion for rival Nasdaq. The NYSE also now has a bankroll of currency -- its valuable shares -- to finance other acquisitions. "Now John Thain is free to take over the world," an NYSE floor trader told MarketWatch.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 1:17:26 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 1:05:09 PM

01:00 Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 12:55:04 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $53.07 -1.06% ... day trader's chart, 5-minute intervals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 12:45:25 PM

Bullish day trade go long alert ... VLO $52.87, stop at $52.45, target $53.85.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 11:59:00 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Valero Energy (VLO) $52.86 -1.45% ... should the stock trade $53.05. Stop would go $52.65, target $54.00

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 11:46:28 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $75.00 -0.42% ... falls back under DAILY Pivot. Session high was $77.48.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 11:29:59 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 11:15:36 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $52.40 -1.89% ... probes MONTHLY Pivot support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 11:07:04 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 11:04:16 AM

EIA Gross Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, Pct. Utilization Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:36:41 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Uneladed and Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:29:12 AM

Valero (VLO) $53.84 +0.35% .... bids green to DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:18:25 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $76.71 +1.84% ... trades DAILY R2

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:17:48 AM

10:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:03:58 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $75.71 +0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 10:02:16 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 9:48:03 AM

Bullish swing trade call adjust stop alert for the SUN Aug 85 Call (SUN-HQ) to $73.75 on the underlying shares.

Jeff Bailey : 3/8/2006 9:44:36 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $74.20 -1.48% ... stock did trade as low as $73.76 at the open. I would like to wait until after this morning's release of weekly inventory data before closing this position as it did violate my profiled stop at $73.85.

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