Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 3/10/2006 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 8:55:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Trade Blotter for March at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 8:44:29 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 8:32:42 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 5:11:49 PM

Stock Pivot Matrix at this Link ... Double correlation for "the GOOG" on Monday! Could be a wild one.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 4:03:08 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $49.10 +1.61% Link ...

Hang Seng ($HSI) Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 3:56:13 PM

PTR 60-minute interval chart, but now with a "conventional" retracement (shown before on DAILY interval bar chart) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 3:37:37 PM

PTR ... 60-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 3:18:35 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 3:15:20 PM

Oil Headline ... DJ - Mexico's Fox to Announce New Deep Water Oil Find

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 3:05:42 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 3:01:28 PM

PTR Option Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:58:08 PM

PTR ... Looking at its Option Montage ... see 113 contracts traded in the April $110 Puts (PTR-PB) with AvgHLC of $16.30. DnTick 64 vs. UpTick 21.

Seller of $110 Puts $110 - $16.30 = $93.70.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:51:08 PM

Short!

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:50:28 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $94.75 +0.57% ... several intra-day tests of WEEKLY S2 resistance.

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 2:42:32 PM

It looks like Opti is OPCDF on TS.

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 2:40:40 PM

TKS Jeff on Ts it is UEYCF

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:38:46 PM

UTS ... PnF chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:37:35 PM

Jane: It is TSE:UTS ... stock is trading $6.52 +0.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:27:40 PM

BOT $118.00 +0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:27:17 PM

CME $25.90 +2.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:26:43 PM

ICE $66.14 +3.35% ...

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 2:26:26 PM

AD volume has now hit 80.90% of its 6 week high. Remember earlier this week when the AD line and volume were really bearish but price was not falling. Now we have an AD line and volume very bullish and price is following its example. Until this turns around I will remain bullish on the market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:25:19 PM

NASDAQ saying indicative offer was made yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:24:28 PM

NASDAQ confirms it made offer for London Stock Exchange

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:20:19 PM

Sohu.com (SOHU) $21.75 +3.86% ...

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 2:20:03 PM

I have asked the reader to send me the symbols for UTS, which trades on the TSE and for Opti.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:19:08 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) alert $49.40 +2.23% ...

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 2:18:31 PM

Jeff the Alberta Tar Sands are a long long term hold. There is more oil in the Tar Sands than in Saudi Arabia but it is in the form of bitumen and you need a steam process to extract the oil and then only about 10 to 20% can be extracted. This is expensive because the steam process needs natural gas and we all know how expensive that has become lately but as long as oil stays above $35/barrel it is worthwhile to go after it. UTS is a penny stock but I know nothing about Opti. I think the best play is with SU.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:12:30 PM

Jane: I'm missing out. What are the stocks (symbols)? What's the trade?

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:09:10 PM

GOOG $333.67 -2.72% ...

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 2:08:53 PM

Here is part of an email from a reader. This is something we should all be watching. Hello Jane:
I read your comments about the Alberta tar sands, a couple of other companies involved are Opti Canada at the Long Lake project. Opti is using steam injected to bitumen to release the oil rather then remove the overburden and process the bitumen. Opti is building a $2+ billion plant that is to come on line in 2-3 years. (A friend of mine is the vice president in charge of material for the project) Uts energy has land holding near long lake & is partnered with Petro Canada for projects.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 2:08:35 PM

Correction alert! ... GOOG Mar $340 Call (GGD-CH) now showing just 2,877 CBOE volume. It would appear an error.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 1:50:53 PM

On a down tick, the GOOG Mar $340 Calls (GGD-CH) $6.70 jumped to #4 most active.

GOOG down $10.00 at $333.00

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 1:24:23 PM

01:10 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 1:12:48 PM

01:10 Market Watch found at this Link ... Didn't realize what time it was.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 1:08:29 PM

April Unleaded -2.32% at $1.68

June Unleaded -0.58% at $1.71.

SUN $77.07 +1.56%

VLO $53.82 +1.05%

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 1:02:01 PM

GOOG ... Option chain sorted by most active at this Link ... The $400 call action probably speculators.

Not a bad trade for that 1,000 at $2.15 yesterday in the $320 puts. Slight bullish bias (Dn vs Up)

$380 Puts somewhat bearish bias (Up vs. Dn)

$370 Calls, this is "real money." We went 10 shares long to provide a near-term hedge at that level. $375 was my initial resistance level after CFO's comments.

$310 Puts ... hey... $320 yesterday, that's the next strike lower and GOOG still in a very bearish decline.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 12:20:47 PM

Ugh! ... NT $3.05 x $3.06. .... somebody else may have thought the same thing?

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 12:18:59 PM

The "tricky" part is to get the fill on the option at $0.10 maybe even $0.15 ($3.00 Put), which OBLIGATES you to possibly buy the stock at $3.00 less the $0.10 premium received, so $2.90. A trader that is short a 1,000 or 2,000 shares at $3.09 might like this type of trade.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 12:13:36 PM

A tricky trade based on execution that I see would be to sell short Nortel (NT) here at $3.09, then try and sell an equal amount of March $3.00 Puts (NT-OG) at the offer of $0.10.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 11:43:23 AM

Lucent (LU) $2.80 -0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 11:38:24 AM

Nortel (NT) $3.09 (unch) ... Off session low of $2.87 and atop this morning's most actives ater the company said it would further restate past financials.

AP story Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 11:18:14 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 11:06:07 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 10:56:05 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $47.47 -1.75% ... I see it traded $46.00. Preliminary WEEKLY Pivot levels for next week are .... $41.11, $44.32, Piv= $49.20, $52.41, $57.29.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 10:51:45 AM

Green on the screen ... Only the DDX.X 153.39 -0.05% in the red.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 10:49:30 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Per trader's request I added session low/high. I can keep adding various things, but pretty soon it gets very wide.

Also ... My QCharts is ONLY reporting CBOE activity for the options (bid/last/AvgHLC/OI/etc). OI is updated fully from what I can tell, but volumes are CBOE only.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 10:37:55 AM

QQQQ Trader? ... Suddenly seems "slow moving" after all this GOOG options stuff. However, same methodology. QQQQ March/April Option Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 10:26:01 AM

GOOG ... YESTERDAY I noted a 1,000 contract trade in the $320 Puts. Maybe that's of interest to traders (why, what is going on?). OI increased by 344 after a bearish bias session (UpTick more than DnTick on this contract). Yesterday's AvgHLC was $2.16. $320 +/- $2.16 gives us $317.84-$322.16.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 10:22:15 AM

GOOG ... YESTERDAY the $360 Calls were active and had a bullish bias with OI rising 5,228. AvgHLC for the session was $5.50. So... $5.50 +/- $360 gives us $354.50-365.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 10:16:57 AM

GOOG March Option Montage ... with some of YESTERDAY's OI changes at this Link

Then YESTERDAY's closing Option Montage where a trader can tie in DnTick and UpTick action with the above OI changes. (buy to open, buy to close, sell to open, sell to close positions) Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 10:08:09 AM

Sell Program Premiu

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 9:58:36 AM

Google (GOOG) ... Updated 60-minute interval chart that we put together the day of CFO's surpise comments at Merrill's Analyst Day Link

RED/BLUE are from 02/15/06 lows to $400 and $410 strikes. PINK is MONTHLY Pivot Retracement (in case those lows are violated.

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 9:41:44 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $93.99 -0.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 9:41:06 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $74.68 -1.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 9:36:11 AM

Google (GOOG) $337.50 -1.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 9:35:36 AM

Stock Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/10/2006 9:22:57 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+12.06 and set for program selling at $+9.86.

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 9:22:52 AM

Link

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 9:21:39 AM

McMillan's weekly commentary came in early today. Since the market failed at 1295 last Friday -- the second time it exceeded that level intraday but was unable to close above it -- the bears have been in charge. As a result, $SPX has fallen below the 1275 support level and closed there. That forms a top, and downside targets extend to the yearly support in the 1245-1250 area initially. If that occurs, it will interesting to see whether or not true oversold conditions exist, or if that level will also be broken. Other major broad market indices have slightly different shapes to their charts, but all are bearish now. The Dow ($DJX) has fallen back below its January highs -- setting the stage to call the recent breakout to 4-year highs a false one. Even so, the Dow is still the strongest of the major indices (not a particularly bullish sign). A Dow close below 10,900 would break the uptrend line that extends back to October. Meanwhile, QQQQ is the weakest of the three major indices. It is within a few pennies of breaking to new 2006 lows.

The equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on sell signals, as they have steadily risen for quite some time now (over a month). Since they have been rising so steadily, they are getting towards the top of their charts -- especially the weighted ratio. While that is not a buy signal by any means, it could easily be considered an oversold condition.

Market breadth has been deteriorating for some time now. It did not confirm the recent attempts at the highs, and it has been downright terrible over the last week.

Finally, $VIX climbed above 12.50, last week and has remained slightly above there ever since. While that certain doesn't qualify as a large rally in $VIX, it is a rise above previous levels and above most of the short-term moving averages. Moreover, $VIX remains in an uneven uptrend, dating back to last October. As such this is modestly bearish.

In summary, these recent developments are bearish. In the short term, we expect a decline towards the 1245-1250 area (2006 lows), but we are also mindful of the fact that the market has now gone 1,118 days without a 9% correction. A 9% correction off the recent $SPX highs would drive it down towards the 1180 area -- coincidentally, the same level as last October's major bottom and a major support area in its own right.

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 8:59:16 AM

TBonds initially spiked a little then sold off then spiked again and are now selling off again. Bonds are a wild ride when important economic data is released.

Jane Fox : 3/10/2006 8:42:01 AM

Dateline WSJ Robust economic growth at the start of the year pushed U.S. payrolls up at a solid rate in February with gains concentrated in construction and service-producing industries, suggesting that the expansion remains well on track.

Nonfarm payrolls climbed 243,000, after rising by 170,000 in January and 145,000 in December, the Labor Department said Friday. Previous estimates showed a 193,000-job increase in January and a 140,000 gain in December.

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.8% last month from 4.7% in January.

The median estimate of 24 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was an increase of 212,000 jobs and a 4.7% unemployment rate in February.

Despite the slight rise in the jobless rate after January's unexpected 0.2-point drop, the data suggest that labor markets remain supportive of overall economic growth, which should spur further interest rate increases in coming weeks.

Market Monitor Archives