Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 3/14/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 8:49:25 PM

GOOG Chart that gets a little messy with our $400 and $410 strike retracements (market maker retracements) at this Link ... Where are the correlative levels?

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 8:46:17 PM

GOOG 30-minute interval chart with just a WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... Today (Tuesday), the OEX undercut its DAILY Pivot, but where I wanted to buy the calls (DAILY S1) the OEX never traded. I missed out on the OEX.

Pretty good move higher intra-day at that 338.57 level. Strength much above 353 has $363, perhaps MONTHLY Pivot/WEEKLY R1 in play.

Is it worth the risk?

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 8:04:23 PM

GOOG March Option Montage with Open Interest as of 03/13/06 (Monday's close) at this Link ... Folks... these OI numbers could change significantly tomorrow!

Most obscure trade I see today is the $410 PUT SELLING where VOLUME was 4-times OI. I show that 4,000 contracts traded at $60.00 at 03:55 PM EST. GOOG was trading $350.

Hmmmm.... those GOOG $360 Calls (GGD-CL) might look pretty good to a bull in the morning, especially IF OI on both the $350 and $360 calls declines after today's trade! Right? If OI declines in those calls, then that might mean there has/had been COVERED CALL or NAKED CALL writing at that strike.

I KNOW GOOG can trade $370, my trade blotter shows it can.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 7:19:44 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link ... Do you think there was a little Op-Ex involved in today's trade?

Check out the VIX.X too.

I sure wish the OEX had traded WEEKLY Pivot as had envisioned. That would have been a very nice call option trade! Somebody got a "honey" at $5.40. I hope they protect it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 6:32:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Acitivty ... Day traded short shares of PetroChina (PTR) at $96.50, but was stopped out at $96.85 ($-0.35, or -0.36%)

Stock Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 4:58:07 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 4:36:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... Airline Index (XAL.X) 52.74 +2.86% has to be today's "comeback sector" of the session. That despite some euphoric action in the energy complex.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 4:18:57 PM

02:12 PM EST Temperatures with April Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

April Unleaded settled up 7.24% at $1.8660.

April Crude Oil settled up 2.15% at $63.10.

June Unleaded settled up 4.57% at $1.8299.

June Crude Oil settled up 2.31% at $65.99.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 3:33:23 PM

Buy Program Premium ... OEX 589.93

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 3:31:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 3:19:18 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $48.68 -1.97% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 3:18:15 PM

Google (GOOG) $348.26 +3.30% ... sets up for test of correlative $350-51 pivot matrix resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 3:13:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 3:03:03 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 2:59:16 PM

April Unleaded (hu06j) alert! $1.87 +7.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 2:38:23 PM

Marathon Oil (MRO) $72.94 +2.61% Link ... DJ Headlines - Possible Refinery Expansions In Ill, Ky, Mich

Refinery Expansions Aimed At Canadian Crude Runs

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 2:30:31 PM

Good Gravy alert! ... OEX 590 Calls (OEB-CR) $2.00 see 5,449 contracts traded with Up/Dn 1,236/529

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 2:28:12 PM

OEX alert! 589.39 +0.78% ... didn't get the pullback I wanted, but OEX trades to target.

Will get a quick snapshot of option chain and see if bears are scrambling (naked call sellers?)

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 2:22:57 PM

Buy Program Premium ... OEX 588.94

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 2:18:28 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $56.95 +2.31% Link ... with an al_rt set at $58.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 2:16:41 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $97.90 +1.54% Link ... buyers gobbling it up.

Will hold the Apr $90 Put (PTR-PR) $1.00 x $1.15 through tomorrow's EIA data at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 2:12:50 PM

Sunoco (SUN) alert $79.08 +0.93% Link ... trade at $79.00 gets stock back on a PnF buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 1:50:56 PM

Google (GOOG) $341.11 +1.24% ... U.S. Judge in Google Case Sides With Government in Part.

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 1:28:28 PM

April Unleaded (hu06j) alert $1.83 +5.17%

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 1:27:47 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 1:19:50 PM

Buy Program Premium OEX 588.05

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 1:11:06 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 1:00:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/14/2006 12:51:47 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 12:43:23 PM

Valero (VLO) $56.31 +1.20% Link ... picks up where SUN leaves off.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 12:41:49 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $77.96 -0.49% Link ... seems hesitant

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 12:39:38 PM

Cont. Unleaded ($GASO) $0.01 box Link ... with April Unleaded (hu06j) session high $1.82.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 12:38:10 PM

test

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 11:59:42 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $97.25 +0.87% ... probes morning high of $97.26.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 11:47:57 AM

Bearish day trade short stop alert for PetroChina (PTR) $96.85

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 11:44:16 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $96.73 +0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 11:43:40 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $46.98 -0.16% ... back to test DAILY Pivot after buyers found at DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 11:31:03 AM

Bearish day trade short alert ... for PetroChina (PTR) $96.50 here, limit $96.40, stop $96.85, target $95.71

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 11:18:47 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Monday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 11:09:40 AM

Yield Curve reversion from 5 to 30

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 11:05:00 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:57:22 AM

Crude Oil Demand ... DJ - Oil prices posted modest losses Tuesday morning as a sharp downward revision of oil demand forecast by the International Energy Agency overshadowed news of a major refinery unit outage.

In a monthly report released earlier Tuesday, the IEA, the energy watchdog of the world's most developed countries, slashed its 2006 oil demand growth forecast to 1.49 million barrels a day from 1.78 million barrels a day a month ago, saying $60/bbl oil prices have taken their toll on consumers and industrial users.

In a raft of downward revisions, the agency also wiped out growth in the final quarter of last year, with a near-100,000 b/d contraction in outright demand.

U.S. government data confirm that U.S. oil demand fell last year for the first time since 2001 and by a larger percentage since 1991, as Gulf Coast hurricanes disrupted supplies and sent prices soaring. During the first quarter of 2006, U.S. oil demand remained flat as an unusually warm Northeast winter cut into heating demand and prices shot above $60.00 a barrel.

Although some analysts questioned the IEA's conclusion that high prices are beginning to cut into demand, the agency's move nevertheless overshadowed news that a gasoline producing unit at the giant Hovensa refinery on St. Croix, Virgin Islands, had unexpectedly shut down. A spokesman for the refinery confirmed the news but offered no reason for the outage.

"The IEA report clearly slowed things down a bit," a trader said. "It took away the some of the momentum, but the big question is whether or not the IEA is correct."

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:53:35 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.21 +0.40% ... EU Rejects Company's Request to Hold Public Hearing.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:36:18 AM

Google (GOOG) $335.22 -0.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:35:11 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $48.35 -2.63% ... slips into "zone of support" from $47.81-$48.40.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:31:15 AM

FOMC next meeting is 03/28/06.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:30:11 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... At time of screen capture the IEF Apr $82 Calls were bid $0.55. I would be looking to sell these "covered" if they trade $1.00. A little "yield enhancement."

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:12:35 AM

Did get a buy program premium at 09:45 AM and 09:52 AM. Not enough at this point to get OEX above overlap though.

Buyers gobbled up that dip into "zone of support" from 583.60-584.12 didn't they?

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:06:42 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:03:24 AM

10-year ($TNX.X) down 5.5 bp at 4.720% ... sets up for test of WEEKLY S1

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:02:32 AM

BIX 371.13 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 10:01:27 AM

OEX 586.72 +0.31% ... probes WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:46:19 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $97.20 +0.81% Link ... strong early. Much stronger than I would think $61.95 crude represents.

$WTIC Link (now looks more like the May Crude Oil futures contract)

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:37:05 AM

April Unleaded (hu06j) $1.78 +2.29%

April Crude Oil (cl06j) $62.07 +0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:30:59 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 3.7 bp at 4.737%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:26:23 AM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) 15-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:25:56 AM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:25:18 AM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) 60-minute interval chart (same as below, but 60-minute intervals) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:24:46 AM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) Daily interval bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:24:02 AM

OEX Mar/April Option Montage found at this Link ... Put on your BULLISH thinking caps for a minute.

First, note the great difference between March (quarterly expire) and April Open Interest. Quarterly expirations a little bit more "important" or of interest.

"Max Pain" gets inflicted on 580 PUTS and BELOW as we stand tonight. Tomorrow not the most bullish, but the Stock Trader's Almanac notes historical bullishness for Wednesday and Thursday.

"Max Pain" on the CALL side is everything, saaaaay 590 and up.

Now, if YOU were the market maker of these options, you've made some coin SELLING the CALL and PUTs, all you want to do is leave Friday with as much money as you can and leave behind as many losses as you can.

I think "the trade" is to be looking LONG the OEX 580 Calls (EOB-CP) for $4.00 if we could get them.

Target? How about that correlative MONTHLY R1 and WEEKLY R2 of 589?

Hmmmm.... The BIX has been moving HIGHER with YIELDS. For the most part, the BIX and OEX tend to move together, and for the most part, BIX luv a HIGHER YIELD on the long end don't they?

Trade setup is tomorrow (Tuesday)... see it?

Watch the OEX closely on ANY PULLBACK near correlative WEEKLY Pivot/DAILY S2, where sign of rebounding strength is OEX back above DAILY S1, say by 03:00 PM EST when the bond market closes.

Something to look for.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:23:15 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+11.86 and set for program selling at $+9.79.

OEX Stocks that were bought the most during buy programs executed on Monday were RTN $44.70 +0.85%, PEP $60.49 +0.24%, DIS $28.56 +1.42%, WY $72.20 +1.86%, HPQ $33.22 +0.94%, ROK $71.02 +0.95%, F $7.86 +0.25%, NSC $51.21 +0.74%, IP $34.65 +1.28%, CL $57.81 +0.15%, CSC $56.00 +0.26%, DD $41.51 +1.49%, TYC $26.31 +0.45%, HAL $68.64 +2.44%, HNZ $38.27 +0.23%, VZ $34.32 +0.38%, AVP $29.86 +2.61%

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2006 9:22:25 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/14/2006 9:17:01 AM

Dateline WSJ The nation's current-account deficit expanded during the end of 2005 and finished the year at $804.9 billion, up 20.5% from 2004 amid rising oil prices.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the current-account deficit, the broadest gauge of the nation's trade, increased to $224.9 billion during October through December from a downwardly revised $185.4 billion in the third quarter. The third-quarter deficit was originally reported as $195.8 billion.

For all of 2005, the deficit was $804.9 billion, swelling from 2004's $668.1 billion. Most of the increase was due to a widening of the deficit on goods trade, as imports rose for petroleum and other foreign products.

The current-account balance combines trade of goods and services, transfer payments, and investment income. About 90% of the deficit is accounted for by the balance in goods and services.

The fourth-quarter shortfall of $224.9 billion amounted to 7.1% of gross domestic product, which was reported at $12.760 trillion in current dollars for the three months ending Dec. 31. The third-quarter gap of $185.4 billion represented 5.9% of a GDP of $12.606 trillion during July through September.

A $197.4 billion fourth-quarter shortfall in goods and services trade was wider than the third-quarter's revised $181.4 billion; the third-quarter gap was originally seen at $182.8 billion. Fourth-quarter imports of goods climbed to $443.7 billion from $422.1 billion in an expansion attributed chiefly to an increase in industrial supplies purchases. Exports of goods advanced to $231.3 billion from $224.8 billion.

Market Monitor Archives