Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2006 2:25:28 AM

Before you look at the following chart of the OEX as we head into March expiration, PLEASE read the 01:22:48, then 1:23:04, then 1:23:15, then 1:35:31, then 01:50:32 posts FIRST.

Then look at this 10-minute interval chart of the OEX with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Retracement, as well as Thursday's DAILY Pivot Levels chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2006 1:50:32 AM

The Expiring Option Exercise Game (Johnson&Johnson) ... Here's a 10-minute interval chart of JNJ with WEEKLY Pivot Levels. It covers December's expiration Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2006 1:35:31 AM

The Expiring Option Exercise Game ... Here's a 10-minute interval chart of the OEX with WEEKLY Pivot Levels. It covers December's expiration Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2006 1:23:15 AM

The Expiring Option Exercise Game ... Here's a 10-minute interval chart of the OEX with WEEKLY Pivot Levels. It covers January's expiration Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2006 1:23:04 AM

The Expiring Option Exercise Game (Exxon/Mobil) ... Here's a 10-minute interval chart of XOM with WEEKLY Pivot Levels. It covers February's expiration Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2006 1:22:48 AM

The Expiring Option Exercise Manipulation Game ... Here's a 10-minute interval chart of the OEX with WEEKLY Pivot Levels. It covers February's expiration Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/16/2006 12:22:31 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+11.86 and set for program selling at $+9.54.

OI Technical Staff : 3/15/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 9:41:53 PM

Amgen (AMGN) $74.89 -0.15% ... Hmmmm $75.00 is round number. Ugh! WEEKLY R1 right here at $75.05. Where's OI at?

Stock looked "hot" this morning at $75.48 didn't it? I wonder why this NDX/QQQQ heavyweight didn't participate with the 0.84% gain.

Maybe WEEKLY R1 and heavy $75 Call open interest had something to do with it.

Might not be an Op-Ex candidate.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 9:27:59 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $45.32 -0.11% ... might be worth a look. Trades pretty close to $45.00 strike. I show $47.50 Call OI of 41,377 and $50 Call of 73,004 so there could be some upside without much pain to the Market Maker of these options. (good gravy ... look at some of those blocks crossed in tonight's extended. One at 2,165,200 with price of $45.33).

On the PUT side of the March ledger, I have the March $45 Puts as heaviest OI of 50,302.

WMT Weekly Pivot levels are .... $44.64, $44.97, Piv= $45.30, $45.64, $45.96.

Hmmm.... hanging around WEEKLY Pivot, if that's the gravitation point, then maybe I could pick some $45 Calls up "cheap" at $0.10 on a trade back near WEEKLY S1 (at that $45 PUT strike), and perhaps get a Expiring Option Exercise Manipulation bounce Friday morning back to WEEKLY Pivot, better yet WEEKLY R1?

Look around, if you've got too much GOOG on the mind.

I suggest looking for OEX/NDX heavyweights that are trading NEAR a round number strike. Why you ask?

Because those options will be priced around $0.10-$0.25 cents per contract. You can SPRINKLE some bets around.

I also suggest you LOOK at an option montage! Don't have one? Yes you do! The CBOE Link gives you one for free. See under "delayed quotes" the radio button for Option? Press it and type in WMT as the symbol. Then press "Get Quote"

It should take you here Link

I'm hoping to have a PIVOT MATRIX calculator up and running in the Market Monitor in the not too distant future. I think it also important to have an idea where computers might be buying/selling stock at.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 8:59:36 PM

Don't forget HL Camp's The Expiring Option Exercise Manipulation Game Link

Here's your OEX Top 25 Market Cap stocks at this Link where I kept the same sort order (market cap) as ...

that of 03/08/06 Link

Earlier this week, Keene mentioned that iqauto.com was once again calculating "Max Pain" theory levels. OEX "Max Pain" has inched higher to 585.00 (5-point increments).

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 8:24:56 PM

Reviewing my commentary: I can only imagine what some traders are thinking ... "What is this? The Googlemonitor? All this guy does is look at the GOOG option chains/montages."

"What the heck does ICE's session low of $67.50, smack in the middle of $65-$70 have to do with anything?"

"PTR keeps climbing and climbing, it has to be painful for any bear!"

"AMD at DAILY Pivot bounces like a rubber ball to $35 strike. Who cares?"

My observations: ... There is so much going on that looks Op-Ex related. No, this isn't the Googlemonitor, but what I do hope looking at an option chain, or montage on a repetitive basis, is so that traders at least think.... "why is this stock doing this, or that?"

Yes, I get a little tired of looking at a GOOG option chain/montage, but into a quarterly expiration, traders should have some idea of how to look at things.

PetroChina (PTR) ... Yep, holding a put the last three days is similar to having your tooth drilled. Ugh! the volume is light, but it just keeps climbing and climbing. Oh the "Max Pain?"

General Electric (GE) $34.42 +1.89% ... I haven't even looked at the GE Option Montage. But the #2 most heavily weighted stock in the OEX kicking it into gear today? Look at GE's trade on Monday afternoon from WEEKLY Pivot of $33.43.

Nortel (NT) $3.04 +3.40% around $3.00. I planted an Op-Ex seed on Friday in the MM.

Hmmm... I didn't mention BAC today. That 1.3 million share block in after hours. That has to be "Beige Book" related doesn't it? I don't think so. I think it has something to do with Op-Ex.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 7:51:24 PM

GOOG March Option Montage found at this Link ... I marked the TOP 9 Open Interest and the BLUE horizontal line give a "Max Pain" look somewhere between $340 & $350.

Just prior to the close the Mar $340 Puts ended up as the most active, on UpTick Volume. That doesn't seem overly bullish, unless you are a contrarian. I don't consider myself a contrarian.

On a close-to-close basis, I continue to see a BEARISH bias in this montage.

For the long Mar $360 Calls, I think a holder of those calls (I bought one today too) needs to see a gap above $350. Yes, for days, the BEARISH bias is similar to what has unfolded in the OEX, where the NAKED or "overly sold" side of the ledger finds itself on the wrong side of things.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 7:12:44 PM

Stock Pivot Matrix for tomorrow found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 6:41:59 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing traded long one (1) of the Google GOOG Mar $360 Calls (GGD-CL) at $1.60. No stop for now. Based on current IV, a trade at tomorrow's DAILY R2 would have this option valued at approximately $2.70, well below my stated target of $4.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 6:12:29 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/15/2006 6:01:09 PM

follow-up to 5:08pm post Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 5:32:13 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 5:19:31 PM

04:12 PM EST Temperatures with April Nat. Gas and Heating Oil settlements at this Link

April Unleaded settled down 1.98% at $1.8291.

April Crude Oil settled down 1.47% at $62.17.

June Unleaded settled down 1.99% at $1.7935.

June Crude Oil settled down 2.00% at $64.67.

Tab Gilles : 3/15/2006 5:08:41 PM

Murphy Oil cuts production forecast

Closed @ $47.79 Change +0.30

After hours trading; Bid * 45.16 Ask * 47.14 Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 4:53:26 PM

ONYX Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) $26.88 -1.50% Link ... Also quiet in extended. I think they are awaiting FDA decision on Sorafenib, which some think (including Dr. Von Eschenback) shows promise in targeting various cancers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 4:41:29 PM

Genentech (DNA) $83.48 +0.57% Link ... flat in extended. Manufacturer of Herceptin, the only FDA approved therapeutic for HER2 protein overexpressing metastic breast cancer.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 4:36:30 PM

FDA ... DJ- President Bush nominates Dr. Von Eschenback to be FDA Commissioner.

Note: Dr. Von Eschenback has been acting FDA Commissioner and director of the National Cancer Institute.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 4:27:09 PM

Denny's (DENN) $4.43 -0.44% Link ... block of 22,828 after the close at $4.50.

Headline : DJ - Gunman kills 3 at Denny's Restaurant in California.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 4:09:40 PM

Tomorrow, I think GOOG Mar $360 Call bulls need a morning gap above $351 to spark any thought of a $4.00 target.

GOOG goes out at $344.50 so I've got DAILY Pivot Levels ... $334.01, $339.25, Piv= $345.78, $351.02, $357.55.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:56:30 PM

ICE $69.30 +0.97% ... morning low was $67.50 and that would be smack in the middle of $65-$70 strikes. I see no DAILY or WEEKLY Pivot level to explain $67.50 low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:53:50 PM

Nortel (NT) $3.03 +3.06% ... right back around the $3.00 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:46:38 PM

GOOG Option Chain snapshot sorted by most active toward the close at this Link ... will check one last time at the close to see if there were any notable bets placec, or positions traded.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:36:28 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $99.00 +0.96% ...

April Crude (cl06j) $62.17 -1.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:33:20 PM

Google (GOOG) $345.00 ... "searching" for a bid above DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:29:15 PM

General Electric (GE) $34.47 +2.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:28:43 PM

Good gravy ... OEX 592.43 +0.46% ... buyers can't get enough.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:20:02 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:05:07 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:01:46 PM

GOOG 343.00 -2.32% ... not sign of bears being jittery here though.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 3:01:09 PM

OEX 591.13 +0.24% ... get the feeling that the bulk of the option flinch move came yesterday. Bears are jittery at 52-week highs though.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:57:25 PM

Advanced Micro (AMD) $35.06 +0.20% ... so Op-Ex manipulated is my thought.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:57:24 PM

Advanced Micro (AMD) $35.06 +0.20% ... so Op-Ex manipulated is my thought.

Tab Gilles : 3/15/2006 2:39:51 PM

Energy Infomartion Agency- eia.doe.gov Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Keep an eye on Jan $45 '07 call leaps (OBYAI) mentioned on 3/8 3:32PM post.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:31:00 PM

Defense Index (DFX.X) 306.02 +0.62% Link ... lurches to a new 52-weeker

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:26:42 PM

General Electric (GE) $34.30 +1.53% Link ... #2 heavyweight in OEX. Where OI heavy on this one?

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:13:56 PM

BIX.X 374.80 +0.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:11:54 PM

OEX alert 591 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:04:11 PM

Beige Book Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:03:06 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 4.3 bp at 4.739%

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:02:22 PM

Fed Beige Book released ... This is anecdotal, a lot of observations, no real hard numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 2:00:59 PM

Here's the stock, and the question... Jeff: Could you please weave your pivot magic (daily and weekly) on 2 recent losers: COGT + HSP?

Reply ... Now, COGT was the stock I looked at via question on 03/03/06, the one that looked like Amazon.com, which we were short on the gap lower, but got taken out of as the stock rallied higher into February expiration to the $40 strike, then got "crushed" after everyone got squared up. Lesson #1 : Know where open interest is at.

Here's the PnF chart Link ... Now here's a 30-minute interval chart with some notes and comparisons to AMZN similarity at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 1:27:08 PM

Oh... MUR $47.73 +0.50% Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 1:25:34 PM

Marothon Oil (MRO) alert $74.00 +1.20% Link ... trade here at $74.00 is a "bullish triangle."

SUN $78.75 -0.83% Link ..

VLO $57.20 +0.93% Link ..

PTR $97.94 -0.10% Link ..

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 1:17:25 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 1:03:27 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 12:59:58 PM

I had a question on a stock the other day that I looked at briefly. I'll try and discuss it later, but when I looked at it, it reminded me of Amazon.com when we were short and got stopped out on a pre-expiration jolt higher to its $40.00 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 12:49:50 PM

Google (GOOG) 60-minute interval chart Link ... $353 does look to be key doesn't it? On this time interval anyway. Looks like $353 needed for MACD to get above zero.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 12:42:16 PM

"Yes Drake. If S&P were to announce GOOG was being added to the S&P 500, you can get a new bone."

Drake the dog is being a pest today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 12:23:11 PM

A little shift to the bullish side in the $350 Calls ... Up/DnTick 2,047/1,752

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 12:19:19 PM

Google (GOOG) $345.00 ... sets up for test of DAILY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 12:15:25 PM

TICKs +800 for the first time today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 12:12:00 PM

SOX 509.16 -0.37% ... Same type of action, but here we've got some WEEKLY Pivot/DAILY Pivot overlap.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 12:10:52 PM

Manufacturing activity in the New York area surged in March, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Wednesday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index jumped to 31.2 points in March from a revised 21.0 in February. This is the highest level since July 2004

The increase in the main index was unexpected. Economists had forecast the Empire State index would slip to 18.5 in March. Stocks were set to open higher on the stronger-than-expected data. "This survey suggests that manufacturing growth strengthened in early March," said the economic team at Bear Stearns in a note to clients

Economists sometimes adjust their estimates for the closely watched National Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey after they learn the Empire State results. Economists piece together a picture of the national factory economy using the several regional snapshots released earlier in the month. The ISM index rose to 56.7% in February from 54.8% in the previous month. The March ISM factory report will be released on April 3. "Provided this is not some sort of fluke, the survey points to a hefty rise in the national ISM, taking it back over 60. Companies are much happier than consumers," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 12:10:36 PM

Advanced Micro (AMD) $34.41 -1.65% ... reverses earlier gains, but holds DAILY Pivot. Getting a feel.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 11:57:06 AM

SUN $78.13 -1.61% ...

VLO $56.41 -0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 11:54:57 AM

GOOG Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 11:43:28 AM

GOOG 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 11:38:16 AM

GOOG $343.24 -2.22% ... Running some quick BULLISH numbers. Assuming (should stress assuming) that highs and lows of day are in, AND GOOG can make it back to $350.00 close. Tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels would be ... $336.47, $343.23, Piv= $347.77, $354.53, $359.07.

Today's intra-day action NOTHING like OEX action yesterday. Yes, GOOG has come under DAILY Pivot, but hasn't made much of an effort to reverse course. Low/High so far $341.00/$352.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 11:32:10 AM

NH/NL for the S&P 500 has 43 stocks hitting new 52-week highs vs. 2 stocks at new 52-week lows.

On 2/27/06 55 stocks hit new 52-week high vs. 2 stocks at new 52-week lows.

On 03/07/06 things had reversed notably with just 4 stocks having traded a new 52-week high vs. 7 stocks having traded a new 52-week low.

SPX Bar Chart Link (that 1,297.57 relative high was 02/27/06).

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 11:18:00 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 11:17:14 AM

Here is the table. Link

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 11:15:15 AM

This was posted yesterday on etfdigest.com First today, we had horrible economic news from retail sales and deficits. Then there was a poor outlook from previous leader Procter & Gamble. But, what got investors attention was the notion that with poor retail sales data the Fed may be done raising interest rates sooner than previously thought.

At the same time came eye-popping earnings from Goldman Sachs. If one looks inside those numbers an area of great profits came from trading. And, profits there come from "program trading" operations. I've been pointing this out for months now. Remember Goldman Sachs is a primary dealer and benefits greatly from strategic liquidity injections from the Fed. What they do with those monies is to trade like hell.

It isn't a conspiracy. It's just the primary dealers taking what the government gives them. It's in the Fed's interest to keep investors happy so they know when to strategically conduct Open Market Operations. Goldman Sachs wants its customers to be happy too and they have their own investments that benefit as share prices rise.

Now the big deal that investors should remember is contained in the following table courtesy of the NYSE. Nearly 60% of trading on the NYSE consists of program trading as opposed to 20% in 2000. So when some pundits tell you this is a professional's market, they're not kidding you.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 11:08:47 AM

Shares of H&R Block dropped 10% after Briefing.com reported that New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is suing the tax-preparation firm over alleged abuses related to Individual Retirement Accounts. The attorney general was expected to unveil an unspecified "major" financial-services case at a press conference at 11 a.m. Eastern.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 11:04:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 11:01:27 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs rose by 468,000, operable capacity was unchanged, which had % Utilization rising to 85.68.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 10:56:19 AM

SUN $79.40 -0.01% ...

VLO $57.35 +1.18% ...

PTR $97.98 -0.07% ...

MUR $47.84 +0.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 10:45:39 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Table found at this Link ... Year-over-year (Year Ago) I don't see any sign of a supply problem.

Tab Gilles : 3/15/2006 10:45:36 AM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration Fund (EVV) Testing 50-ma.[ Follow-up to 3/9 10:33 AM post] Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 10:35:24 AM

EIA Weekly Inventory data ... Crude Oil +4.8 million, Gasoline -881,000, Distillate -3.89 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 10:21:48 AM

Just had a little sell program ... OEX 588.83

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 10:20:25 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 3/15/2006 10:12:46 AM

Sears Holdings (SHLD) $132.89 ; +15.62 (13.32%) Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 10:05:47 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 9:51:12 AM

Bullish swing trade place order to sell alert ... place an order to sell the Google GOOG Mar $360 Call (GGD-CL) for $4.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 9:47:59 AM

GOOG March Option Montage at this Link ... OI up on the $360 Calls so NOT all that bullish. It is worth at least one though in my opinion. Look for STRENGTH ABOVE $353

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 9:36:28 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for one (1) of the GOOG Mar $360 Calls (GGD-CL) at $1.60. No Stop, target $4.00 on this options.

GOOG $347.56 -1%

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 9:23:25 AM

April Unleaded down $0.02, or -1.06% at $1.85.

April Crude is off $0.45, or -0.71% at $62.65.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 9:14:48 AM

Dateline WSJ Responding to written questions from a Democratic senator, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress he was "quite concerned" about the deficits and urged lawmakers to act soon to bring them down. His answers showed how Mr. Bernanke is taking on predecessor Alan Greenspan's role as a leading nag on fiscal matters, The Wall Street Journal says, and although the new Fed chief declined to endorse any particular way to reduce the deficit, he did suggest that Congress can't ignore the tax side of the budget. "Over time either taxes will have to be raised or the spending increases embedded in current laws will need to be scaled back, or some combination of the two," he wrote. "By holding down the growth of national saving and real capital accumulation, the prospective increase in the budget deficit will place at risk future living standards of our country."

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 9:13:09 AM

Dateline WSJ A group led by KKR submitted a nonbinding bid of $12.5 billion to $13 billion to buy a majority stake in GMAC. The proposal gives parent GM a possible alternative to a Cerberus-led offer for the auto maker's financing arm.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2006 9:12:40 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+12.02 and set for program selling at $+9.48.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 8:58:45 AM

Good Morning
Previous day HIGH - LOW - CLOSE - RANGE.
ES - 1309.75 - 1293 - 1308.75 - 16.75 - Closed in the 94%tile
NQ - 1705.5 - 1670.5 - 1704.5 - 35 - Closed in the 97%tile
YM - 11246 - 11143 - 11231 - 103 - Closed in the 85%tile
ER - 742.9 - 729.2 - 742.4 - 13.7 - Closed in the 96%tile

Jane Fox : 3/15/2006 8:58:14 AM

Dateline WSJ Prices for imported goods fell for the first time in three months during February as costs dropped for not only oil but also non-petroleum products.

Overall import prices sank 0.5%, after rising 1.4% in January, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The department originally estimated January prices up 1.3%. Prices were flat in December and dropped 1.9% in November.

During the 12-month period since February 2005, prices increased by 7.4%. Between February 2004 and February 2005, prices climbed 6.1%. Wall Street had expected February import prices would fall 0.5%.

Petroleum import prices decreased 0.7% last month. Still, prices were up 40.8% in the 12 months since February 2005. Between February 2004 and February 2005, petroleum import prices climbed 29.8%.

Excluding petroleum, all other import prices fell 0.5% in February, after increasing 0.3%. Prices excluding petroleum increased 1.8% in the 12 months since February 2005, lower than the 2.8% climb between February 2004 and February 2005

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