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Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:59:26 AM

Oh! Before I forget it. Daylight Savings Time Begins Sunday, so don't forget to set your clocks ahead one hour (if your region observes DST) Saturday evening!

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:58:30 AM

I want to sit up all night and look for a trade, but I've got to get some sleep. Tax lady is after me to get my stuff to her. I told her I'd work on it tonight. Luck on my side is she doesn't subscribe to the MM!

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:42:11 AM

YM06M 15-minute interval chart, all sessions, with Keene's tabulated MONTHLY/WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot levels. I like to use retracement brackets! Here's a chart, have had it! Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:29:20 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+9.56 and set for program selling at $+7.33.

Fair value for the S&P 500 on Friday is $8.54.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:07:06 AM

Now ... after you read the 12:48:25 Post, maybe go back an look at my Current OPEN MM Profiles.

Just look at today's "net% change" for all of the stocks.

Remember Sessamee Street (the children's educational program)? "Which one of these things is just like the other? Which one of thse things just aren't the same?"

I've got some "energy-related" stocks there. Yes, refiners (SUN, VLO) aren't anything like PTR and CEO. The "difference" might be S&P500 and non-S&P 500. MUR is perhaps a "refiner-producer", but it has some commonality with S&P500.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 12:54:08 AM

This is interesting ... You may see me "say" things that seem off the cuff, not all that believable. Yes, I think out loud, but I do test what I say. I have to as it is the only way I know if I'm on the right track, or not. If I'm not, the market is quick to prove me wrong. I try and UNDERSTAND my mistakes, so I don't keep repeating them, or brush them asside and then believe that this indicator, or that indicator is no longer working (the indicator is working the same as it always has, but do I understand what the indicator is really telling me?).

How long has it been since the MARKET received news that Google (GOOG) was being added to the S&P 500? Yes! 5 days. Now is a great time to test some things that I and others have said the past few days.

Here is a look at the TOP 25 market cap weighted stocks in the S&P 100 (these will be in the S&P 500) Link

OK, so there is GOOG. According to QCharts, it currently has a market cap of $115.5 BILLION. It is replacing Burlington Resources (BR), which according to QCharts has a market cap of "just" $34.9 billion.

If I take tonight's market cap calculation for GOOG and place it in the group, I would find it has the same market cap as Intel (INTC) ... How many days has it been since the MARKET found out about GOOG coming into the S&P? That's interesting to me. A stock with the SAME market cap as GOOG, is UNCHANGED from 5 day's ago. Coincidence perhaps. IBM is also unchanged.

Over the years, what have we learned from some of H&L Camp's postings as to "OEX stocks that were bought/sold the most during yesterday's sell/buy programs...?" We KNOW from Hank's firm that INSTITUTIONAL COMPUTERS are selectively selling/buying various OEX stocks.

How can a fund "push" an index, or even their "S&P-like" portfolio around a bit, in order to get the portfolio where THEY want it to be?

Yes! Program the darned computer to buy/sell a little more of a BIG CAP WEIGHTED stock just enough to get things to match up.

So it HAS TO BE TRUE that GOOG's market cap (which has grown by roughly 13.6% the past 5-days) is replacing a stock with a notably "smaller" market cap, can creat "artificial selling" of one or more components, in order to make room for a LARGER component.

Now, before anyone (me included) thinks that JUST BECAUSE we knew GOOG was being added to the S&P 500 that its stock price would rise, we must understand the law of SUPPLY and demand. I did not KNOW how much SUPPLY, or LACK OF SUPPLY might be WILLING AND ABLE to sell into the news. Remember Friday's action? GOOG hardly budged that day after the gap higher open. I profiled a DAY TRADE SHORT, which really went nowhere (Lost $1 per share on the trade). Then it moved higher on Monday-Wednesday, pulled back a little today (Thursday 03/30/06) after the company announced it would sell an additional 5.3 million shares at Wednesday's closing price. That's about $2.1 billion additional market cap for those doing the math.

Remember when Murphy Oil (MUR) was added to the S&P 500 at the close of trading on 08/12/05. NEVER assume that "just because" a stock is being added to an index, that there aren't some willing sellers looking for the exits.

Off the cuff #1? ... In the above OEX component list, you'll notice I've noted (squared pink) some of the "drug" and "money center banks." This goes back to my 03/29/06 01:45:14 MM post. Yes! I'm testing, but I've also got to be careful what I read into the BIX.X action that I continually tie with the SPY/SPX.

Folks ... after nearly 4-years, of disagreeing with some traders/analysts that "because the Fed tightens, or treasury yields rise that it it spells doom and gloom for stocks," I (Jeff Bailey) don't want traders/investors to fall into that trap again.

How terrible, or silly would it be for me to have posted that item (03/29/06), or observation, then discuss the possibility that "artificial selling" may be taking place into Friday's close of other components, and not be on the al_rt, or continue to monitor the BIX.X, or the BKX.X?

I will be willing to bet my last dollar that somewhere, someplace, there is at least ONE trader/analyst that NOW BELIEVES (yet again) that a banking crisis is upon us. Say it 999 times and be wrong, DEAD WRONG, but maybe, maybe the 1,000th time it will be right.

Off the cuff #2? ... In Wednesday's MM (03/29/06 07:04:31 PM EST and 07:05:06 PM EST) I throw out a Trader's Thought and mentioned XOM and GE were the top 2 most heavily weighted S&P100 Components. GE lurched higher today after Morgan Stanley predicted that the long-disfavored mega-stock could double in price over the next three years!

Oil could rise to $100.00 on Friday and XOM might trade down $0.50.

In Thursday's MM (3/30/06 08:05:21) I thow out another comment regarding the Dow-mini futures (YM). If you're a CASH market trader, maybe check in on the futures monitor SUNDAY EVENING. What takes place in the YM/ES/NQ futures could be VERY TELLING as to all this Google index stuff.

One last TRIN observation as it relates to today's intra-day commentary is the SPY DnTickVol and UpTickVol. Keep an open mind to TRIN 1.0 as a waterline. That's a STARTING POINT each and every day. Just pretend, or think that each day, the slate is wiped clean.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:47:54 PM

Full list of SPX components from S&P at this Link (data as of 02/28/06 close)

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:48:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... I did not profile any trades today.

I've added the SUN-EA as a possible covered call. My thoughts at this point are to either close out the SUN Aug $85 Call position, as it has lagged the stronger VLO. I can't get "inside the mind" of various brokers that have downgraded SUN the past couple of weeks, but the action in the various energy commodities may give them pause. Things change and don't always go to plan.

I do know for fact that I paid $6.50 for the RIGHT to buy 100 shares of SUN for $85.00, and would equate to a cost basis of $85 + $6.50 = $91.50. IF I could sell the $90.00 Calls for $1.50, then I would have an OBLIGATION to sell 100 shares of SUN for $91.50, IF the stock were to close above $90.00 on May 19, 2006.

I noted earlier today that I did get filled on the PTR Apr $90 Puts (PTR-PR) in my personal account and loss taken. At this point it would take a MAJOR market downside correction for these puts to become profitable. I will continut to follow the OPTIONS until they trade $0.30.

It is a scenario that some S&P 500 stocks may be "artificially sold" into Friday's close, with Google (GOOG) being added by Monday's open. FM and MM contributors have made multiple comments regarding what type of activity we might be looking for. SUN, VLO, YHOO, AMD and MUR are all components of the S&P500.

OI Technical Staff : 3/30/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 8:32:30 PM

Now ... SHORT-TERM traders that are catching onto this GOOG trade, where it gets added to SPX, but index funds tied to the SPX performance have to sell other holdings to get re-weighted accordingly, YOU HAVE GOT to keep a close eye on GOOG.

This GOOG management team is a surprising bunch. Aren't they. Last night, out of nowhere they announce a secondary offering. New stock on the float JUST TWO DAYS ahead of S&P 500 addition.

This morning's SPY/ES surge. Yep. I think so too. More stock in public float from GOOG at $395 level, that throws things off. Boom! Big rally at the open.

No, no, no ... If us SPY April Put holders can get and SPY at 128.68, and get a VIX up in the 12.40 (MONTHLY Pivot) or 12.60 (WEEKLY R2) that should be decent.

Need the TRIN above 1.16 tomorrow and 1.66 is when the a/d line goes to "Sold to you Mr. Magoo."

That's the plan as depicted by the Pivot Matrix.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 8:16:46 PM

Index Pivot Matrix at this Link ... I added TRIN to the WEEKLY Matrix.

Marc is right and tomorrow might be a test. A TRIN under 0.70 doesn't necessarily mean buyers will step in.

I "knew" the NDX/QQQQ wasn't the index to trade bearish this week.

What didn't hit me until today was that the better index bear trade was the INDU. Just 30 stocks, several of them are BIG WEIGHT in the SPX.

The "reason" the SPX has underperformed (based on GOOG addition) the INDU to the downside, is there's 500 stocks vs just 30 in the INDU.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 8:06:17 PM

Need those YM daily pivot levels. See if there's enough reward.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 8:05:21 PM

Might be some shorts moving in on the YM here. Traders might be onto the SELL THE BIG GUYS for tomorrow's GOOG addition. Sunday evening is the "buy'um back"

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 8:01:24 PM

Marc ... GREAT comment at 02:36:03 in futures monitor. Now check out tomorrow's Pivot Levels ....

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 7:57:18 PM

There may be a heck of a trade for bulls in the YM come Sunday evening. DIA/DJX Call buyers too.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 7:18:32 PM

Jane ... out of curiosity would the trading system you're using be long or short at the close? I want to see if I can predict what it will do at tomorrow's open. If I can, then that means I understand it, and how it works.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 6:50:47 PM

Educational ... How the majors traded within THURSDAY'S (that is today's) DAILY Pivot Matrix at this Link (Tip: Always know where WEEKLY and MONTHLY Levels are at)

Questions I have ... WHY was the INDU so weak in its DAILY pivot matrix? WHY was the NDX/QQQQ so strong?

Answer: THE GOOOOOOOOOGle! It is an NDX/QQQQ component, it goes into the SPX at tomorrow's close. EVERY DOW COMPONENT is an SPX COMPONENT.

TRIN, TRIN, TRIN ... what does it TELL YOU?! LACK OF SELLING BIAS. LACK OF SELLING BIAS, LACK OF SELLING BIAS. What have Marc and I been mentioning this week regarding "what index funds that track the S&P 500 have to be doing into, or at Friday's close?

When the VIX "spikes" and "this isn't a good time to be buying stocks" readings are found, that's when I want to "SELL TO YOU MR. MAGOO" those APRIL SPY $130 Puts.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 6:16:41 PM

HEES ... surging on Cramer's "back up the truck"

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 5:16:47 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 4:42:30 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link ... Next time the VIX is up like it was today and SPX/SPY flat, traders and investors know of a some places to look.

Keep today's action in mind, as it provides a potential building block for tomorrow. TRIN gets reset, with "waterline" at 1.00. I'll have the DAILY Pivots calculated later today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 4:33:37 PM

US Govt. Questions EU Case Against Microsoft DJ - The U.S. government says it has "substantial concerns" about European regulators' antitrust case against Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), according to a person who has seen a letter sent to regulators.

Relations between Brussels and the software giant have "hit a new low," the letter said.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 4:24:43 PM

Ship Accident (update) ... AP via CNN- A U.S. Navy spokesman said Thursday that U.S. divers and helicopters were headed to site of a "ship accident" in the Gulf off Bahrain's coast.

CNN reported that the vessel was a ferry with 150 people on board, many of whom were Western tourists.

Some people were being treated for injuries and an unknown number are missing, CNN said.

Regional television stations reported scores of ambulances and police vehicles rushing to Bahrain's Muharraq port. CNN said the accident occurred in the southern portion of Bahrain, near the island of Muharraq.

The U.S. Navy spokesman, Commander Jeff Breslau of the 5th fleet in Bahrain, had no other details.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 4:22:30 PM

U.S. Navy Reports 'Ship Accident' Off Bahrain; No Details

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 4:21:25 PM

SPY goes out at $129.80 -0.17%

Keene Little : 3/30/2006 4:18:36 PM

Jeff, I haven't heard from Archie in a while. I don't follow him but every once in a while hear or read something he's said.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 4:12:13 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $111.41 , SPY $129.90

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 4:09:18 PM

SPY $129.89 -0.10% ... about 6 more minutes to go.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 4:06:37 PM

Jane : I've been thinking about joining the WWF as I've been pumping some iron lately.

Any interest on your part in a "mixed pair" tag-team? I think Vince would go for it.

We could call the team Fox and Hound. Moonbeam Keene can join up too.

Hey Keene ... what is Arch Crawford saying these days?

Keene Little : 3/30/2006 4:05:07 PM

We just need to be careful when we're all the same side of the boat (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:59:42 PM

SPY 129.95 -0.06% ...

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 3:58:54 PM

Quite a tag team aren't we?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:58:59 PM

And with the VIX and afternoon low, yet TRIN at afternoon highs... well....

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:57:51 PM

Keene ... based on Jane and my discussion (SPY/TRIN/VIX) and your 3-wave bounce, you may not know how meaningful/informative your 03:45:06 post is. I mean it.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 3:56:25 PM

Jeff I also think traders should take away from the discussion today that we all look at the market a little differently. I find what works for me but it may not work for someone else but it may give them a perspective they never though of.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:44:51 PM

Jane ... I enjoyed it too. You are a very good sport.

What I do hope, and I mean this, is that TRADERS reading today's commentary get a feel for how a day trader can become an IF, THEN, ELSE type of trader. IF this happens, THEN I do this at this level, with a stop and target at this level.

For me to get my target, I "know" I need needs to happen.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:35:34 PM

SPY $130.10

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:34:06 PM

VIX 11.49 ... back at WEEKLY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:33:13 PM

SFB-PZ ... wow! Today's low was $0.75 and high has been $1.40.

Everyoooone knows where SPY/TRIN/VIX were today. (grin)

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:28:40 PM

My systems is still short ... SPY $130.06 ... SFB-PZ $1.10 x $1.20

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:23:32 PM

Kind of crazy too ... PTR $104.92 +1.37% .... has been either side of DAILY R2 on time stamp.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:22:20 PM

Swing Trade Put Filled alert on the PTR-PR at $0.25. Just seeing fill in my account.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:15:39 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 3:04:17 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:58:07 PM

VIX 11.70

SPY 129.84

TRIN 0.72

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:54:46 PM

Jane ... are you still short?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:45:54 PM

TRIN 0.71 ...

SPY $129.84 ... 15-minutes until "the most imporant hour of the trading day"

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:42:22 PM

That's the "waterline" I've tried to hammer home to traders (1.00). Each day is a new day (trend or no trend). The PIVOT LEVELS then put things into context RELATIVE to where you were the DAY, or WEEK BEFORE.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:36:38 PM

I seeee. Does your trading system do the same thing?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:34:13 PM

Jane ... now put the VIX/TRIN/ES together PLEASE. I'd like to see if they "make sense."

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:29:29 PM

Where was the TRIN during that time Jane? Was it below 1.00? Was it above 1.00? Where are your pivot levels?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:25:07 PM

SPY 129.86

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:24:41 PM

I agree Marc

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:22:13 PM

I'm very surprised that you would still use the VIX then.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:21:42 PM

Jane ... Well, I hope today's and recent years coverage of this indicator, combined with Pivot levels isn't lost on other traders.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:18:42 PM

SPY $129.92 and TRIN 0.66.

What I think this tells us is that market participants have found their equilibrium today (computers and humans)

Until we get a TRIN above that DAILY Pivot, bulls (buyers) are going to be "happier" than bears (sellers)

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:10:44 PM

Exactly Jane! TRIN !

Some traders just look at A/D and will say crazy things, especially at key levels of support/resistance. When TRIN doesn't really confirm the bullishness/bearishness of A/D by itself.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:03:41 PM

SPY $130.04

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:03:25 PM

TRIN alert 0.66

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 2:02:47 PM

Bringing it together (Part II) ... SPY and TRIN ... no real selling at this point Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:52:56 PM

Still a "buy side bias" at this point. Need LONG LIQUIDATORS and a higher TRIN.

Jane notes a/d line. That can be associate with your TRIN. However, TRIN a little better. I can have 6000 stocks all in the red, but if they are all down a penny and no real selling, it isn't going to create the real bearishness is it?

Keene Little : 3/30/2006 1:52:09 PM

Jeff, I noticed your comment (12:39) about using the browser version of the MM. I have to do the same thing since the standalone program won't refresh on my computer for some reason. Might be my router blocking it. Anyway, I found a little refresher program that you can install into Explorer to automatically refresh your browswer window. I've been using it for a long time on different computers and it works great. You can download it at snapfiles.com/get/yrefresher.html

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:50:42 PM

QCharts users ... for TRIN, turn on your DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot levels. See its WEEKLY Pivot of 0.82?

Yeah... that's the ticket. That's the "zone"

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:49:18 PM

VIX 11.60

SPY 129.76

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:48:25 PM

TRIN ... 0.73 after kiss of DAILY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:44:11 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:36:52 PM

For us Put option holders ... we're looking for a meaningful SPIKE in volatility combined with SPY at a major level of Matrix correlation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:34:32 PM

TRIN 0.77 ... e-mini traders probably at the ready to cover short on test of DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:33:09 PM

VIX 11.69 ... session high after kiss back at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:32:42 PM

Jane's "system" going short made sense didn't it?

SPY 129.60 after move back up to DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:29:44 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:22:55 PM

TRIN ... 0.67 also. See... still no real sellers. If it will "rocket" up on VIX/SPY daily pivots, that's the bear move. Right? TRIN ... the 3rd dimension.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:21:23 PM

Watch your VIX and SPY as they come back to DAILY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:20:10 PM

I think you should have too Jane.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:13:58 PM

TRIN .... 0.73 ... daily pivot just ahead. A little "bear gas" on move above DAILY Pivot, a little bit more if 1.00 and DAILY R1 (1.01), then who knows? Jean Luke?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:12:40 PM

VIX 11.59 ... session high

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:12:01 PM

SPY $129.79 -0.18% .... e-mini traders going to be shorting here, they got there stop and target all set up.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:11:11 PM

With VIX 11.50, this is when I (Jeff Bailey) feel it SOOOOOO IMPORTANT to understand TRIN and implications. What it tells a trader about "buy/sell side gas."

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:08:31 PM

01:00 market watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:05:47 PM

Good gravy ... its already 01:00

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:05:13 PM

See Keene's 12:44:06 ? Traders now have a test with their VIX. Any unusual option action in the chain?

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 1:03:45 PM

TICKS back to -800.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:03:40 PM

VIX 11.51 alert

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 1:02:40 PM

Bringing it together ... Today's convesation between Jane and myself and recenet sessions. SPY and VIX as an example Link ... Do you see how the pivot levels correlate, how traders can use them to identify targets, action points? Don't just think SPY, but BIG MOVES can be had for the es.

Where's the SPY most likely going to trade IF VIX makes the move above WEEKLY Pivot?

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 12:57:25 PM

Make sure you put the symbol USO on your radar screen if you don't like the idea of holding Crude futures overnight (like me).

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 12:55:00 PM

Dateline WSJ This is wonderful news for longer term Oil traders. The American Stock Exchange plans to launch trading Monday in a fund that tracks crude-oil prices, marking the first time everyday investors will be able to use shares to bet on the commodity itself.

Trading in the fund, which was first proposed about a year ago, must still gain a last-minute go-ahead from the Securities and Exchange Commission, people familiar with the matter said. Such approvals have been fairly routine in the past, however.

Several products that will compete with Amex's listing are in the works, including one from Barclays Global Investors.

Despite a bull market in which oil prices have more than tripled since late 2001, most investors have only been able to bet on the commodity indirectly. So far, individual investors' choices have been limited primarily to energy-focused mutual funds or shares in big energy companies, like Exxon Mobil Corp.

The Amex product will be what is known as an exchange-traded fund, a popular investment vehicle that trades just like a stock, with price changes throughout the day. The Amex ETF will represent ownership in U.S. Oil Fund LP, an entity that will be overseen by the registered commodity pool operator Victoria Bay Asset Management LLC.

The fund will trade under the ticker symbol USO. Its initial share price will be equivalent to the price of the bellwether crude oil contract traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange -- currently hovering around $64 -- and should track it fairly closely thereafter, said portfolio manager John Hyland of Victoria Bay Asset Management.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:50:42 PM

TRIN 0.67 ... still no sellers

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:50:10 PM

VIX 11.37 .... SPY 129.95 ... something's got to give. Getting a little out of unison here.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2006 12:46:21 PM

T. Boone Pickens on CNBC. Stated that world oil production is maxed at 85 million bbl per day, however demand from China, India and U.S. keeps growing. Thus to kill demand prices have to go up. He also, mentioned that natural gas prices should go lower but we're going into huricane season and it could easily spike up. Back to oil, T. Boone sees $75 before $60 and $100 is not out of the question, based on global tensions with Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:44:56 PM

TRIN 0.64

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:44:06 PM

Be alert .... SPY 130.00

VIX 11.36

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 12:43:48 PM

Jeff I use the downloaded version because the web version does not allow Both. I do have to do a refresh on occasion which usually means closing the monitor down and restarting because the refresh does not work. The more often I post the less I have to refresh though.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:39:40 PM

Jane - Are you able to use the MM/FM download, or are you using the Windows? I can only get the Windows to work, but have to constantly hit refresh.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 12:36:51 PM

Jeff I have had a couple of emails from readers who are now using Both monitors because there are only three (sometimes four) of us now. I use Both and never miss a post.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:33:39 PM

Jane ... just flipped over to the Futures Monitor and see your 11:36 Post. I only have one monitor turned on at a time. Flip back and forth.

Never know just where I can find you (grin)

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:31:14 PM

May Crude (cl06k) $66.90 +0.67% ... seems to be "in play" or responding to the news.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:29:00 PM

The time stamp (10:52 AM EST) on that DJ story/report was about the time the SPY broke back below its MONTHLY R1.

News is great to have, and I've asked management for some type of help in this area. News can create the scenario, which traders can then trade, but test against with levels they deem important.

For instance ... if that news is "in play" then SPY shouldn't get back above MONTHLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:24:58 PM

Iran News from earlier in the session ... DJ - Oil prices were flipping in and out of positive territory Thursday morning after rallying overnight on news of a planned Iranian naval exercise.

Iran will launch a week of military exercises called 'Holy Prophet' by firing a Shahab II missile, an Islamic Republic News Agency report said Wednesday.

The commander of the Islamic Republic Guard Corps Naval Force, Admiral Morteza Saffari, said the display would demonstrate "the country's full readiness to defend the territorial integrity of the motherland," according to the report.

The announcement came after the U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to demand that Iran suspend nuclear enrichment.

The planned Iranian show of military muscle is "bullish but was expected (in light of the Security Council vote) and may already be in prices," said Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas Futures. "Markets have had a big run in the last few days. They may be overbought."

The May crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was flat at $66.45 a barrel after surging to a new two-month of $66.74 in electronic trading on news of the Iranian war games.

May Brent on London's ICE Futures was up 53 cents at $66.10 a barrel.

April gasoline rose 83 points to $1.9625 a gallon. April heating oil was up 55 points at $1.8575 a gallon.

Chris McCormack, a broker and analyst at ABN Amro in New York, said the sharp run-up in oil prices this week may have left the market overbought despite lingering concerns about supplies in Iran and elsewhere.

"Although the news is bullish and scary the market has already made a significant move up so a good pullback in here would not be surprising," he said.

Meanwhile, the federal Energy Information Administration reported a surprisingly large weekly draw of 104 billion cubic feet in underground natural gas storage. Even so, the draw failed to generate much buying interest in natural gas futures.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:18:31 PM

TRIN 0.63

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:17:48 PM

SPY 130.17 +0.10% ... VIX 11.26

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:17:01 PM

If the VIX were to "spike" to DAILY R2 Jane, where might the ES/SPY/SPX be headed?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:15:51 PM

Traders that use the VIX as a "counter indicator" are on the alert at these lower readings.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:14:49 PM

Yes, and great comment there Jane (12:11:06). It is when we see the sudden, or lingering "not in unison" that something is up and traders need to be on the alert, scouring the option chains for information.

It can be the little "divergences" or "this doesn't make sense" that give insight to the big moves.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 12:14:40 PM

Jeff, VIX and the SPY in unison makes sense since I see the VIX and ES (S&P futures) in unison in opposite directions though most days.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:07:40 PM

SPY ... at 11:13:00 SPY found its low at the WEEKLY 61.8% retracement (129.86) and correlative with DAILY S1!

VIX and SPY look to be in unison Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:05:29 PM

VIX 11.21 ... stopped dead in its tracks at DAILY R1 at 11:13 AM EST.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2006 12:04:30 PM

Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:03:05 PM

TRIN 0.60 ... still confirms Jane's 11:30 AM post.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 12:01:42 PM

Shoot ... can't see (from Time/Sales with bid/ask turned on) if that trade came at offer or bid?

If SPY/SPX, or ES sees another quick move down from WEEKLY Pivot, be alert.

Yesterday I noted a SPY call observation, alerted traders, and all be darned if the SPY didn't go to that strike, which seemed unreasonable at the time.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:55:36 AM

I see 2,310 contracts traded at $0.50 on the SPY-PX at 11:39:17.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:51:48 AM

Hmmm... $128 +/- 0.50 gives me $127.50-$128.50. WEEKLY S2 is $128.68. Will get new MONTHLY Pivot levels at Friday's close.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2006 11:51:11 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR)Hitting 200-ma resistance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:47:51 AM

Option Chain analysis: Must check SPX option chain. Doesn't make sense that VIX up, yet most active is sellers of SPY May $128 Put $1.10. Note: SPY $128 +/- 1.10 = $127.90-$129.10 "range."

Now.... I had sorted by volume, but look down (about 3/4) and by time I captures screen, the April $128 must have seen large activity as volume jumped to 2,753 and would actually have it #5 most active.

That may be the important strike of support $128 give-take $0.50. Further investigation needed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:41:26 AM

SPY Options Chain sorted by most active at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:34:28 AM

Jane ... Did you see any news that triggered that little decline?

TRIN doesn't suggest that there was big selling, but more lack of buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:30:09 AM

Checking SPY option chain for most actives ...

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 11:30:00 AM

I am seeing signs that the decline is over and the buyers may be returning.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:26:38 AM

Higher VIX also means call selling/put buying starting to outnumber call buying/put selling.

I thought the recent couple of days has provided some volatility.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:23:06 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 11:23:00 AM

I love to see that VIX move up, means volatility is returning to the market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:13:42 AM

VIX 11.42 ... upside alert

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:13:11 AM

Getting hammered by downside alerts

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:05:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:01:56 AM

SPY $130.22 +0.14% ... Back at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 11:00:53 AM

BIX alert 369.56 -0.56% ... slips below DAILY S1 here. Yesterday's lows in play.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:59:38 AM

Pacholder High Yld (PHF) alert $9.52 +0.31% Link ... From bullish comments back in December for fixed income investors to once again begin accumulation, I'm raising bullish stop in personal accounts to $9.40 to preserve capital appreciation. Will miss the hefty yield and monthly dividend ($0.075/share/month), but ready to play some defense.

PHF updated NAV $9.22. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:45:38 AM

iShare Lehman 7-10yr (AMEX:IEF) alert $81.60 -0.19% ... probes 52-week low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:32:37 AM

Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 405.90 +0.61% ... found resistance at WEEKLY R2 (406.96) just ahead of the report.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:31:38 AM

EIA Nat. Gas Storage Report Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 10:31:01 AM

My system just gave a sell signal but with the AD volume making new daily highs I am not taking it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:30:12 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.45 -0.88% ...

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 10:29:18 AM

My comment to Jeff's 10:25 post is "Ah Gee poor little things."

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:28:50 AM

Treasury Secretary Snow Has No Comment On Report He Could Be Replaced

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:27:12 AM

ICE (ICE) $71.10 +4.94% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:25:47 AM


DJ- New York Post reports a group of traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange are furious at being denied a chance to buy pre-IPO shares and some are threatening to walk off the job if seat owners don't bend to their demands.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:24:19 AM


DJ- Initial jobless claims fall to 302,000 in the week ending March 25, the lowest level since Feb. 18, suggesting that labor markets remain on solid footing. Economists expected jobless claims to rise by 3,000 in week.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:23:34 AM


DJ- Commerce Department revises 4Q economic growth up to 1.7% from last month's estimate of 1.6%, matching economists' projections. Consumer spending increases a downwardly revised 0.9%, its weakest advance since early 1995.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 10:22:59 AM

These are not as dramatic as yesterday but still pretty dang clear as to who has control this morning. I would not be chancing a short yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:14:23 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $80.79 +1.45% ... bold move above triple correlative resistance.

Pricing out a covered call (against the Aug $85 Calls (SUN-HQ) in the SUN May $90 Calls (SUN-EA) currently bid/offer $1.00/$1.10.

If you're thinking there is some "mark ups" into the quarter going on, and bears simply wait until next week to look at things, then you're not alone.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 10:06:05 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 9:41:42 AM

These two charts along with the VIX making new daily lows gives you a very clear picture as to who has the reins this morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 9:37:43 AM

W&T Offshore (WTI) $40.66 +2.93% Link ... Technical: Double top buy signal. Initial bullish vertical count to $49.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 9:36:01 AM

ViroPharma (VPHM) $12.88 +10.35% Link ... Positive data for its antiviral drug.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 9:35:24 AM

VIX just took a spike down.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 9:34:16 AM

AD line is an anemic +160 and AD volume barely above 0 so no one gets the reins this morning.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 9:27:27 AM

Dateline CNN American hostage Jill Carroll, kidnapped in Iraq January 7, has been released, the FBI and The Christian Science Monitor say.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2006 9:24:05 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+9.72 and set for program selling at $+7.64.

Tab Gilles : 3/30/2006 9:16:04 AM

$NDX/$NASI Link Link Link

Profund UOPIX Link Link

$VXN Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2006 8:58:59 AM

Dateline WSJ The U.S. economy was a bit stronger during the end of 2005 than earlier thought, but its growth slowed sharply as consumers spent money at the weakest rate in 10 years.

Gross domestic product rose at a 1.7% annual rate October through December, the Commerce Department said Thursday. A month ago, Commerce estimated GDP grew 1.6%.

The reason for the small upward adjustment was that businesses increased inventories more than originally assumed.

The 1.7% seasonally adjusted gain in GDP was far smaller than the third quarter's 4.1% push forward, and it marked the slowest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2003's identical, 1.7% advance.

The report showed corporate profits after taxes climbed 13.8% to $1.062 trillion October through December from the third quarter. Profits fell 4.3% in the third quarter. Year over year, profits climbed 14.6% since the fourth quarter of 2004.

The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 1.7% increase in fourth-quarter GDP, a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy.

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