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OI Technical Staff : 3/31/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 6:15:51 PM

Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 6:11:21 PM

June Heating Oil, Crude Oil, Unleaded, Nat Gas futures settlement table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 6:01:10 PM

May Heating Oil, Crude Oil, Unleaded, Nat Gas futures settlement table at this Link

March 8 and 10 were "inflection lows" for Valero Energy (VLO)

RS measure of Unleaded vs. Crude Oil during that time was right at 27.50.

RS Chart of Cont. Unleaded vs. Continuous Oil at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 5:29:54 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Trade volumes were brisk again this month at the big board, but well off January's record 2.45 billion average daily volume. Average daily volume for the NYSE for the month was 2.22 billion shares.

NASDAQ volume rose 6% from February's 2.00 billion (Avg. Dly Vol) as traders among our 4 and 5-lettered friends averaged 2.12 billion shares per day. January has been the heaviest volume month at the NASDAQ with 01/04 running 2.28 billion, 01/05 running 2.17 billion and 01/06 having turned 2.15 billion shares per day on average.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 5:00:06 PM

SUN $77.57 -2.37% ... upset to get stopped today, but I also think VLO a better play.

Yes, VLO $59.78 -0.89% stopped on the underlying 1/2 position, but this is the "refiner" I think bulls should/will play.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 4:53:36 PM

I've got to make some "stop adjustments!" AMD at $33.19.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 4:35:23 PM

No go for now on XOM as a "post-GOOG" play. DAILY Pivot $60.95 and WEEKLY Pivot $61.28. Monthly Pivot at $60.41.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 4:22:42 PM

Running some numbers on Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $60.86 -0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 4:19:52 PM

SPY goes out at $129.83 +0.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 4:08:34 PM

SPY $129.75 -0.04% ... still not done.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 4:07:24 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) goes out at $49.82 -1.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 4:02:50 PM

Google (GOOG) goes out, or should I say into the S&P 500 at $390.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 4:01:52 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $111.10 , SPY $129.62

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:59:44 PM

Diamonds (DIA) 111.03 -0.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:59:06 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 11,106.92 -0.38% ... how about 11,111.11?

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:58:27 PM

Google (GOOG) 385 -0.79% ... fading

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:52:18 PM

GOOG 388.65 +0.03% .... not what I would have guessed. Was thinking $392 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:51:25 PM

What's GOOG doing?

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:51:07 PM

TRIN 1.57 ... presses highs 1.62 here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:49:40 PM

SPX 1,295.88 -0.33% ... Most active options with VIX.X 11.57 (unch) ... APR 1200 Put (11,128:103,628), Jun 1350 Call (7,205:54,242), Jun 1250 Put (6,350:69,028)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:40:50 PM

GOOG $390.97 +0.63% ... volume really drying up last 10-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:39:27 PM

QQQQ $42.00 -0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:38:54 PM

Scratch the BOT/ICE looking similar to each other intra-day. Had a 60-minute interval chart of BOT on the screen.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:38:13 PM

BOT $119.15 +4.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:35:50 PM

ICE $68.90 -3.39% and CME $445.75 -0.49% ... Just getting this news flash

DJ - Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYM.XX) are on the brink of cementing a deal in which Nymex would shift key energy contracts to the CME's electronic-trading program, Globex, according to people close to the deal. A deal would affect competing exchanges like Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and the Chicago Board of Trade.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:32:51 PM

CME $445.00 -0.65% ... If still day trade short, stick a bid at $445.02.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:31:22 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $32.24 -0.55% ... session low $32.01 (they didn't get us yet, not yet)

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:30:30 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $104.90 +0.17% ... session low $103.32

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:29:55 PM

Valero (VLO) $59.88 -0.74% ... session low $59.05.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:29:13 PM

SUN $77.87 -2.00% ... after session low of $77.21.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:25:03 PM

StreetTrack Gold (GLD) $580.00 -1.02% ... nice round number after a very bullish quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:21:27 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:10:41 PM

GOOG $390.61 +0.5% .... here comes the volume. 50 minutes, 50 minutes to the close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:05:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 3:00:07 PM

If short the YM from 11,233 area, I'd have a tight stop now just above this last little high of 11,205. Buyers could have vanished to that overlap support, but they didn't. If sellers are going to get that target of 11,144, then it better come here.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 2:52:43 PM

TICKs +1000

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:45:49 PM

SPY Options Chain with some of the S&P heavyweights at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:26:30 PM

I'll show you SPY option chain in a second and "reasoning" why I want to close out the SPY puts.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:25:21 PM

VIX 11.49 -0.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:24:51 PM

Swing trade put close out alert for the SPY Apr $130 Puts (SFB-PZ) at $1.30

SPY $129.68 here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:15:21 PM

XOM $60.93 -0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:14:52 PM

DRG.X 330.13 -0.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:14:32 PM

BIX 368.80 +0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:13:52 PM

SPY $129.49 -0.23% ... sits right on its WEEKLY S1.

This a tough decision for April Put holders. CNBC Bob Pissani saying hedge funds long GOOG will be sellers and GOOG probably doesn't rise much to the close.

I know of few hedge fund managers that would ever tell anyone what their plans/intensions are.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 2:07:06 PM

CME $446.25 -0.37% ... this bounce high from DAILY S1 came to $447.40 and just under WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:56:47 PM

ICE $67.73 -5.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:55:15 PM

Day trade short stop alert for the CME $447

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:52:28 PM

1:30 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:47:31 PM

VLO $59.45 -1.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:46:50 PM

Bullish call stop alert ... SUN $77.23, with SUN-HQ $3.80 bid.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:34:44 PM

1:30 PM Market Watch at this Link

Google GOOG $389.01 +0.14% ...

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 1:32:32 PM

... you should never fool with that AD volume.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 1:32:01 PM

Oh eeeee VIx took a big spike upwards confirming the new ES daily low.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 1:31:11 PM

TICKS -800, yes Virginia that is minus.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:30:58 PM

Bearish day trade lower stop alert ... for the CME to $447.00

CME $444.17 -0.84% ... will get intra-day updates done.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:21:39 PM

Need to keep an eye on CME though

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:18:00 PM

Jane ... great observation. I really want to look at the a/d and NH/NL indications. We've seen this "nothing makes sense" and it usually happens right before an option expiration.

With GOOG going into the S&P 500 right before a quarter's end, when mutual funds and hedge funds (which have become much more popular in recent year), today might as well be considered an expiration.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 1:15:23 PM

... but with an AD line at only -146 I wouldn't be marrying any short positions.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:14:58 PM

ICE has nothing to do with the S&P, but it does have some big bullish profits for the quarter.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 1:14:32 PM

Jeff the AD line and volume are not making a lot of sense either other than the AD volume is making new daily lows and that is always bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:12:54 PM

SPY 129.75 -0.03%

TRIN 1.36

VIX 11.39 -1.55%


Yes! the GOOG.

Sunday evening's futures trade could be VERY telling for Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:08:55 PM

Main point of ICE action is for the CME trade.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:06:49 PM

ICE $68.33 -4.19% ... building a pennant around that DAILY S2 and an ascending "neckline" has held.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:03:51 PM

01:00 Market Watch/Internals will be delayed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:03:23 PM

CME $443.15 trades DAILY S1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 1:02:47 PM

CME traders ... if you can, or have a Level II, watch MWSE. Been slowly moving bid lower and currently down at 439.50. Should stock approach, if MWSE stands firm, that may be a good place to cover.

MWSE offer was at $449 when we started out, has slid down to $447.48

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 12:59:58 PM

Can sense a little downside pressur on the SPY 129.76 -0.03% as GOOG has edge up from morning lows.

GOOG edges up, SPY edges down. Might be all index weighting into today's close. SPY may move inverse of every GOOG tick.

ES short probably wants GOOG to go to $500 by the close!

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 12:57:38 PM

Google (GOOG) $389.65 +0.31% .... highs of session.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 12:54:30 PM

Link Link Link

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 12:52:02 PM

Finally, volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have been bullish in that they have been declining. For example, on both the afore-mentioned Tuesdays, $VIX barely budged upward even though heavy selling was taking place in the broad market. That reaction of $VIX was bullish. In other words, traders were not panicking over the decline -- correctly predicting that it would be short-lived (and it was). $VIX traded below 11 again this week. In the long run, such low levels of $VIX are not good for the market. But, in the short run, the market can continue to climb as long as $VIX stays down here.

So, are we wildly bullish? No. There are problems, such as the fact that quarter-end window dressing has taken place and added some superfluous upward momentum to the market this week. Also, the nearly historic period of time since there was a 9% correction (1,140 days) is something that will eventually have to be dealt with as well. But, in the short term, it does appear that $SPX can fulfill our initial target of 1320- 1325.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 12:51:42 PM

CME $444.44 -0.78% ... undercuts morning/session low.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 12:51:41 PM

Here is McMillan's weekly commentary. Ever since $SPX broke out to new 4-year highs in early March, it has struggled to add to those gains. However, the technical picture has remained strong and support has been successfully tested. Twice recently (in fact, on Tuesday of each of the last two weeks), the market has suffered a severe bout of selling. In both cases, $SPX retreated to the 1293-1295 range, but then rebounded upward. That confirms that area as valid support, and it is further strengthened by the fact that 1295 was previously a resistance area (see red line on chart, Figure 1). As long as $SPX holds above 1290, say, the chart picture is bullish.

Equity-only put-call ratios appeared to give buy signals just over a week ago, but then canceled those out by moving to higher highs. Now, once again buy signals are setting up. The weighted ratio -- Figure 3 has just rolled over to a buy signal, according to our computer projections (which are usually accurate). The standard ratio (Figure 2) has sort of a minor double top on its chart -- and is also now on a buy signal.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been a poor predictor. It swings back and forth with the rather uniform institutional order flow that we are seeing more and more. That is, the institutions seem to buy together or sell together -- usually for just one day at a time. As a result, the advance-decline line swings wildly in one direction and then the other, but it's hard to make a trend out of that.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 12:47:14 PM

Day trade short lower stop alert ... for CME $445.25 -0.60% ... to $449.00

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 12:18:26 PM

ICE $67.91 -4.78% ... no news that I can find. I had an upside al_rt set at $73 the past several days. Had a h/s top pattern with right shoulder at $72.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 12:14:34 PM

CME ... Should alert traders that KBW raises earnings views for CME, CBOT

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 12:11:28 PM

CME ... 15-minute interval chart at this Link ... Thought for short is simply this. Nice gains this quarter. Saw ICE fall from similar levels to WEEKLY Pivot. Thinking "end of quarter profit taking" maybe some portfolio rebalancing.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:47:15 AM

ICE $68.50 -3.86% ... fell just below WEEKLY Pivot ($68.83) and undercut DAILY S2 $68.27.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:44:31 AM

I profiled an outright short after seeing ICE fall so quickly. Quick decision on the CME.

1 put is same risk to my profiled stop on the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:42:09 AM

CME Apr $420 Puts (CMJ-PO) are $2.95 x $3.20

CME $445.44 -0.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:30:43 AM

Day trade short alert ... for the CME $447.40 -0.12 here (limit 447), stop $452, target $439.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:28:15 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:20:13 AM

PTR $103.70 -0.97% ... China-based, but you never know.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:16:33 AM

Anyone got a list of stocks with BIG gains for the quarter?

ICE $68.55 -3.88%

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:06:56 AM

ICE $69.00 -3.25% ... goog gravy!

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 11:06:15 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:59:15 AM

Energy Select SPDRS (AMEX:XLE) $54.31 -1.55% Link ... #8 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:56:10 AM

CME $448.31 +0.08% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:50:52 AM

ICE $72.82 +2.10% ... could see a squeeze here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:45:56 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Chatter from the energy pit is some Q1 profit taking after recent run.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:27:43 AM

Energy sectors really getting "reweighted" this morning. OIX -1.03%, OSX -1.85%, XNG -1.14%

I must admit that I was expecting some "paint them up" into the quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:21:46 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY 129.98 +0.13%

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:17:34 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $59.26 -1.75% ... Should be swing trade stopped alert at $59.49.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:15:47 AM

US Chicago Purch Mgmt Adj Mar Index 60.4 Vs Feb 54.9

US Chi Pur Mgmt Mar Prices Paid Index 71.1 Vs Feb 71.6

US Chi Pur Mgmt Mar Supplier Deliveries 61.9; Feb 59.2

US Chi Purch Mgmt Mar Employment Index 55.6 Vs Feb 54.9

US Chi Purch Mgmt Mar New Orders Index 62.2 Vs Feb 54.9

Note: Readings above 50.00 indicate expansion in the manufacturing index and a reading below 50.00 indicates contraction.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 10:13:51 AM

Keene the Silver ETF that is based on the metal and not silver stocks is SLV but there is no definite time for its release.

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:12:40 AM

US Factory Orders Rose 0.2% In Feb

Feb Factory Orders, Excluding Transportation, -2.0%

Feb Factory Orders, Excluding Defense, -0.9%

Feb Durable Goods Revised To +2.7% From +2.6%

Jan Factory Orders Revised To -3.9% From -4.5%

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 10:11:52 AM

TICKs +1000

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 10:07:05 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/31/2006 9:53:10 AM

Univ Michigan March Final Sent Said 88.9 Vs Feb 86.7

Univ Michigan March Final Current Index 109.1; Feb 105.6

Univ Michigan March Final Expectations 76.0; Feb 74.5

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 9:17:28 AM

Around 4:45 to 5:00 the markets were fed a bowl full of Wheaties and started a rally that has carried them all to new overnight highs. Link

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 9:10:34 AM

WE await the 9:45 March Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Then at 10:00 Feburary Factory Orders and March Chicago Purchsing Managers Index

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 9:08:41 AM

Dateline WSJ Corporate America's share of the nation's income rebounded from the havoc of Hurricane Katrina to a level not seen in four decades, and the hurricane did a bit less damage to the U.S. economy than previously thought.

The Commerce Department said yesterday that corporate pretax profits in the fourth quarter of 2005 grew 14.4% from the previous quarter, the strongest rate since 1992. Pretax profits in the third quarter fell 4% as hurricane-related insurance payouts slammed financial results.

Corporate profits accounted for 11.6% of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter -- the biggest share of the nation's income companies have taken since 1966. They have been able to do so, say economists, by sharing less with their workers.

Jane Fox : 3/31/2006 9:06:54 AM

Dateline WSJ Consumers tightened spending last month after a record-warm January had shoppers flocking to stores, while personal incomes rose at the slowest rate in three months and the rate of personal saving remained in negative territory.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that personal consumption inched up at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.1% in February after a revised 0.8% increase in January. Personal income increased 0.3% after climbing an unrevised 0.7% in January, when it was boosted by federal government pay raises and cost-of-living adjustments for millions of Social Security recipients.

Disposable personal income, or income after taxes, increased by 0.2%, following a revised 0.6% increase in January. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a negative 0.5% for the second month in a row. The last time there was a positive change in the savings rate was March 2005, when it was up 0.4%.

Spending on durable goods, those designed to last three years or longer, fell by 1.9% in February, after a 1.2% increase in January. Nondurable-goods spending slid by 0.6%, after a 2.0% increase in January. Spending on services rose 0.9%; outlays were up 0.1% in January.

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