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Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:34:22 PM

SPY $130.56 +0.63% ... UpTick/DnTick Vol was 7,138,000 : 6,763,500

DIA $112.00 +0.61% ... UpTick/DnTick Vol was 913,600 : 1,155,300

QQQQ $42.21 +0.54% ... UpTick/DnTick Vol was 7,753,652 : 5,694,203

Something "might be up/down" for the small caps.

TRINQ (a buy/sell volume and a/d line indicator for NASDAQ stocks) doesn't "jive" (see 04/04/06 11:35:20, then 11:37:21 MM posts) and CNBC's note this evening of some unusual put buying in the IWM does "jive" with the IWM more bearish Up/DnTick Volumes.

OI Technical Staff : 4/4/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 8:49:28 PM

iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) ... CNBC mentioned "big bet" near-term on small caps going down. Here's my Qcharts IWM option chain, sorted by most active at this Link ... Here's the CBOE's option chain, which indicates that the May $71 Puts (DIW-QS) did trade 45,699, but I can't get a read on Up/DnTick Vol. Here's the CBOE montage Link

Also noting how the IWM traded up today, but Up/DnTick Volume rather bearish at roughly 3:4.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 8:19:15 PM

Jane ... did you pick up on anything unusual in the ER today?

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 7:05:00 PM

Google (GOOG) $404.34 +3.75% ... ticks higher at $406.70 in extended.

Seeing this Reuters Story Link regarding speculation that company may be set to offer a digital music store to compete with Apple Computer's (AAPL) $61.17 -2.36% iTunes music store.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 6:59:36 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity

... Day trade shorted a full position in the QQQQ at the bid of $42.00 with target of $41.75, but was stopped out at $42.12 ($-0.12, or -0.29%).

Swing trade stopped on the remaining 1/2 bullish position in Yahoo (YHOO) at $31.75 ($-1.06, or -3.23%)

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 6:46:16 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 6:04:41 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 5:52:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 2:56:26 PM

I have to leave for a meeting and will not return prior to today's close.

MM Profiles that I've made are all closed.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 2:54:51 PM

02:45 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 2:47:01 PM

02:45 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 2:42:13 PM

Google (GOOG) Using Friday's electronic close of $390 for WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot calculations. 60-minute interval chart at this Link ...

Let's see. Bought back a short in AMD just above WEEKLY R1, AMD then gets hit lower to original target of $32.50.

Went long VLO just above WEEKLY R1, lasted about a day, then got hit lower.

YHOO saw the light of day above WEEKLY R1 for about an hour, then retreated.

A pattern here, but sellers will be alert for any divergence.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 2:21:47 PM

Google (GOOG) $404.70 +3.85% Link ... X gets another square.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:54:34 PM

Having problems with my CBOT feeds this morning/afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:53:13 PM

QQQQ $42.16 +0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:52:52 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $111.98, SPY $130.32

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:52:13 PM

Two-Thirds of Lenders Nationwide Say U.S. in Midst of Real Estate Bubble ... Business Wire Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:38:00 PM

Bullish Swing Trade stopped alert for Yahoo (YHOO) $31.75

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:22:53 PM

Google (GOOG) $401.00 +2.93% ... Still not certain what ignited this morning's bid.

Hedge funders pulling a little "trick" and not as eager to sell into S&P 500 addition as some had thought?

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:21:03 PM

Yahoo (YHOO) $31.85 -0.12% ... today's relative weakness might well be explained by Spitzer's activity today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:19:05 PM

SPITZER SUES ONLINE ADVERTISING FIRM DJ- New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer sues New York online advertising firm Direct Revenue, alleging it surreptitiously installed millions of spyware pop-up advertising programs on consumers' computers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:18:04 PM

MICROSOFT TO ANNOUNCE HANDSET PACT DJ- Software giant is set to announce an order for 500,000 Windows Mobile 5.0-based handsets, a company official says. Handsets are expected to be used by door-to-door census takers as part of the effort behind the 2010 U.S. Census.

MSFT $27.72 +0.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:11:59 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 1:06:32 PM

Here is the same NDX chart with support as well. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 1:03:41 PM

Look at this resistance on the NDX chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 1:02:18 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 12:50:35 PM

Fed's Lacker ... Not Seeing 'Any Sign' Of Rising Inflation

Expectations For Inflation Are Contained

Fed's Highest Priority Is Keeping Inflation Low

Economic Outlook 'Quite Healthy'

Slow 4Q GDP Due To Temporary Factors

Housing Mkt Returning To More 'Normal' State

US GDP Likely To Rise 3.5% In 2006

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 12:40:39 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $61.41 -1.97% ... notably weak today. Seeing some news that record labels are pressuring the company and its iTunes Music Store to raise prices from $0.99 a song. According to Business 2.0 Magazine, Apple and record labels are renegotiating deals struck when its music store launched three years ago, and a key issue is variable pricing -- the right to charge more for singles from a hot band, and less for music from lesser-known acts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 12:16:22 PM

BIX.X 372.65 +1.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 12:13:32 PM

EU Pushes Member Countries To Open Energy Markets DJ- The European Commission Tuesday escalated its efforts to cut the continent's energy prices, demanding that 17 countries open up their energy markets.

The Commission sent 28 separate complaints over issues ranging from regulated gas and electricity prices to consumers' lack of free choice of suppliers.

Brussels regulators have struggled to change Europe's energy market, long controlled by state-owned monopolies that fix prices and force customers into long-term contracts. The issue has become more pressing in recent months because of high oil prices, the brief but painful shutoff of Russian gas supplies and a rise in "economic nationalism," with governments vying to protect their own energy champions.

Until recently, "the 25 member states all had dominant utilities in their own national markets. Now we are moving toward an internal market. It's normal to have these problems," said Noe van Hulst, director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency's office of long-term cooperation and policy analysis.

The regulator was considering over 100 cases in which countries appeared to have implemented the 2003 rules incompletely or improperly. In addition, it referred Spain and Luxembourg to the European Court of Justice for failing to introduce the 2003 legislation.

European Union countries "must implement the directives on gas and electricity quickly and in full, not only in form but also in substance," E.U. commissioner for energy Andris Piebalgs said in a statement.

The regulator said Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Slovakia and the U.K. all received letters for a range of offenses. Besides Spain and Luxembourg, the commission didn't immediately disclose the countries' specific problems.

The commission's Tuesday move is unlikely to spur immediate changes, as the regulator must send countries a series of warning letters before asking European courts to force compliance.

Still, the commission has been making progress. Last July, the regulator charged 11 countries for failing to include the E.U.'s 2003 policies in their national laws; only Spain and Luxembourg still haven't complied with that part of the commission's demands, the commission said Tuesday.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 12:04:07 PM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 12:03:35 PM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 12:02:50 PM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $27.70 +2.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 12:02:28 PM

Southwest Airlines (LUV) $17.96 +0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 12:02:03 PM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $27.57 +2.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 12:01:35 PM

Delta Air Pilots Vote To Authorize A Strike ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 11:59:45 AM

Dateline FT.com Bobby Godsell, chief executive of AngloGold Ashanti, predicted that worldwide gold production would stagnate, then fall in the coming years as large deposits of the precious metal become scarce.

He said this would support the rally in the gold price, which last week hit a 25-year high of $588 per ounce.

The South African company, the world's third biggest gold producer, mined 6.2m ounces of gold in 2005 but expects production to be lower this year, between 5.8m and 6.1m ounces, and then increase again in 2007 as new projects come on stream.

But in an interview with the FT, Mr Godsell warned that the gold industry will find it hard to keep up current levels of production. "All of the gold majors are finding it difficult to replace their reserves. New mine production will be flat-to-declining."

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 11:54:50 AM

Here is a comment I just read about the new USO We had expected to be involved with USO (US Oil ETF) today, but rumors and press reports of its release for trading today were incorrect for one reason or another. In fact reporters were invited to the AMEX today for the opening of trading in USO only to be told that the issuer "didn't want to do it today".

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 11:53:10 AM

I did read that the SEC has to approve the new crude ETF before it was listed but that approval was just a formality.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 11:43:49 AM

Jane ... I went over the the AMEX web page Link and can't find any trade date on the USO (under ETFs; New Listings).

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 11:37:21 AM

TRIN 1.13 ... with its WEEKLY Pivot at 1.29. WEEKLY S1 at 0.70.

ER and RUT traders taking some notes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 11:35:20 AM

TRINQ 0.90 ... with its WEEKLY S1 at 0.92.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 11:33:45 AM

QQQQ $42.11 +0.30% ... correction to my earlier post. QQQQ session high has been $42.22, not WEEKLY R1 of $42.49.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 11:17:21 AM

I see USO (crude oil ETF) is still not trading. My information was that it was to start trading yesterday so now I don't know when it will start.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 11:16:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 11:08:53 AM

True Bob. Big move/transition from IP today. Reminds me a bit when Kimberly Clark sold their mills.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 11:03:00 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 10:42:35 AM

VIX is hugging daily lows telling me we have more buying pressure ahead. AD line and volume are completely neutral.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:41:49 AM

SOX 506.00 +0.16% now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:33:51 AM

Yahoo (YHOO) $32.24 +1.09% ... edges above WEEKLY Pivot ($32.17). Weekly Pivot 61.8% retracement at $31.79 provided opening support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:31:56 AM

Google (GOOG) $401 +2.91% ... not finding any news to explain this morning's action.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:27:12 AM

Enersis (ENI) $11.98 +0.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:25:41 AM

Total (TOT) $133.15 +0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:24:57 AM

VENEZUELA SEIZES TOTAL, ENI OIL FIELDS DJ- Venezuela steps up its battle to extract more-favorable terms from big international oil companies operating in the petroleum-rich country, by seizing control of two oil fields run by France's Total and Italy's ENI.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:23:48 AM

Google (GOOG) alert $402.78 +3.36% ... clears WEEKLY R1 ($401.53) on volume!

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:22:54 AM

CHAIN-STORE SALES SLUMP IN MARCH DJ- Redbook Research's latest indicator of national retail sales shows U.S. chain-store sales drop 3.2% from February, bigger than the 2.3% drop projected. ICSC index flat last week from a week earlier.

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 472.99 +0.60%

WMT $46.51 -0.55%

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:21:23 AM

LAYOFF ANNOUNCEMENTS DROP 26% DJ- Challenger, Gray & Christmas survey says the number of job cuts announced by U.S. corporations in March falls from a month earlier to 64,975, a 10-month low. Telecommunications sees the biggest amount of layoffs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:20:44 AM

FED CLEARS CITIGROUP TO EXPAND DJ- Federal Reserve Bank of New York says in a letter to the bank's CEO Chuck Prince that Citigroup has made "significant progress" in implementing its new compliance risk management program.

C $47.68 +0.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:19:39 AM

MERCK SEES 1Q PROFIT ABOVE VIEWS DJ- Drug maker expects earnings excluding restructuring charges of 71c-75c a share. Mean estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call was for earnings of 64c.

MRK $35.57 +0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:18:47 AM

INTERNATIONAL PAPER IN $6.1B LAND DEAL DJ- Paper giant agrees to sell about 5.1 million acres of forestland, which is nearly 10% larger than the state of New Jersey, for $6.1 billion. Firm has sold most of its U.S. forestland holdings in an effort to focus on other areas.

IP $35.36 +1.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:17:53 AM

COMPUTER SCIENCES PUTS SELF UP FOR SALE DJ- Computer-services giant's board agrees to explore a potential sale of the firm, which has received potential takeover offers worth at least $10.6 billion. Company also announces it will cut about 5,000 workers in the next two fiscal years. Majority of the job cuts will take place in Europe.

CSC $60.02 +4.76%

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:08:00 AM

10:05 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:04:32 AM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $32.00 +0.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:03:34 AM

Google (GOOG) $392.80 +0.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:01:42 AM

Buy Program Premium DIA 111.50, SPY 129.84

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 10:01:15 AM

Bearish day trade stop alert for the QQQQ $42.12.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 9:52:38 AM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 9:52:35 AM

QQQQ $42.09 ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 9:50:08 AM

ym06m 11,188

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 9:49:33 AM

Also VIX opens above its previous day high confirming ES open below it previous day low. The internals all "match."

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 9:49:06 AM

QQQQ with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement and QCharts' DAILY Pivot Levels at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 9:48:44 AM

AD line is -513 and AD volume well below and falling so the bears have the reins this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2006 9:42:17 AM

Bearish day trade short alert for the QQQQ $42.00 here, stop $42.12, target $41.75

Jane Fox : 4/4/2006 9:11:58 AM

Dateline WSJ After stubbornly resisting nearly two years of prodding by the Federal Reserve, long-term interest rates are on the rise, a trend that could eventually slow the nation's expansion.

Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note -- the foundation for long-term interest rates -- rose as high as 4.905%, matching a two-year peak set in May 2004. Some analysts believe the yield is on a run that will take it above 5%.

The upturn, spurred by deepening economic growth in the U.S. and abroad, is pushing up the cost of a widening range of consumer and business loans -- including 30-year mortgages and corporate bonds -- from extraordinarily low levels...

Few economists expect higher long-term interest rates to derail the current expansion. Indeed, interest rates probably would turn lower again if the economy showed serious symptoms of softening. But economists say the latest trend, if sustained, could cool economic growth and weigh on a housing market that already shows signs of slowing after a series of boom years.

"Given how sensitive large parts of the U.S. economy are to interest rates, a continued drift up like this is almost certainly going to affect growth," says Hasib Ahmed, U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in New York.

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