Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:06:34 AM

Trader/Subscriber Don ... I sent you an e-mail reply to your "secret squirrel" option question.

It will not hurt my feelings if you decide not to trade the ideas I gave you.

After I sent you the e-mail, there are still some things you could do. What about just buying long the puts instead of shorting the stock? There's no premium paid in the puts, and RISK is limited to the strike.

The scenario that the stock could RISE to $100.00?

With no premium in those Puts, you place a stop on them at the $17.50 + $0.50 = $18.00 level, if you sold the covered call against the long stock position option.

Anyway... let me know what you decided to do. I might profile, or outline a trade around your findings. I'd like to eventually let everyone know about this, as I haven't seen it before (for a stock that can be volatile) and provides some arbitrage, or at least some MINIMIZING of RISK if short the underlying shares of this stock.

Since you found this somewhat rare (in my opinion) option, I wouldn't want to mention it now, maybe bring the option market makers al_rt to where they then build in the premium on the puts.

If YOU do it, trade those puts, and then premium appears, YOU are OK as you "found the trade."

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:51:13 PM

Housing Futures ... I had a question regarding coverage of the housing futures. At this time, I'm a little swamped.

Here's a 03/14/06 article regarding the various housing markets and % over/undervalued. Link

Maybe I can talk Jim into coming out of retirement and hedge his house here in Denver?

Traders that are trading this market, maybe this data could be entered into a spreadsheet, sort by state, then try and group together like the various regional futures.

I'm hitting up Tom Dorsey to see if they can't get some PnF charts going.

Use some relative strength techniques (similar to energy futures) of different area. Find those pockets of weakness, regions of strength.

OI Technical Staff : 4/6/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 8:33:14 PM

Well, the "tax lady" calleth ... Don't forget. Income Tax Deadline for U.S. is April 17.

Don't forget to contribute some cash to your retirement accounts if you can! Look into a Health Savings Account (HSA) too. I started one last year and am glad I did. These volumes at the NYSE and NASDAQ are brisk, and you can sense some inventory building in anticipation.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 8:27:14 PM

Really, I've only got two eyes and two hands. I was teasing my niece the other day that I was going to get a third eye put in on my right temple (she was asking why I needed three computer terminals when I only had two eyes). She wasn't sure at first, but I convinced her when I said "I thought about getting a third eye in the middle of my forehead, but thought that would look strange, so I'm getting one on my temple. That way, I can still wear those wrap-around sunglasses when it is sunny."

And while the "process" of tracking some things seems cumbersome, or overwhelming at first, you do start to get used to it. But it takes repetition!

Yes! By the time I talk to Keene and Alan about the SPY option chain, I'm thinking you're saying "Gosh, that took 2 hours! What's the point?"

No, it takes 2 hours to do 10 other things, type and capture some option chains. I love doing that stuff, and discussing it. Heck! It keeps me on top of things too. That's what I'm paid to do.

Anyway ... you don't need three eyes to get some of this stuff down. It sure helps to have some trading software where you can set some al_rts and various levels.

Do you also see why I like PIVOT levels? I can look at them tonight, and I know where they are going to be tomorrow, or all week, or all month.

Where's the upper bollinger band going to be tomorrow morning? Or this moving average? Or that moving average? Or that MACD, or that Stochastic? They could be anywhere!

TRIN and TRINQ ... great indicators to combine a/d and volume. Roll a/d volume into one, set some alert's, then get on with the trade at hand. Or be looking for the trade.

VIX ... When I started working for OI, I looked at the VIX as "too bullish" when it got much below 16 and "too bearish" when it got much above 35. Remember the retracement brackets I had on the VIX back then?

Now what is it? Yeah .... kind'a "too bullish" when it gets below 10.50, and "too bearish" when it gets above 13.00.

Has it been a year since I noted that one options trader at the CBOE say ... "when volatility get much above 14.00, I'm selling it" when he was talking about the premiums in options?

Madness, pure madness.

I know some traders that just haven't been able to buy any index since VIX 15.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 8:01:23 PM

I think it would be pretty cool if I could set several al_rts, label them BULL #1 thru #whatever, 6 or 7. Have another list BEAR #1 thru #whatever 6 or 7.

Set them all on my QCharts trade station, then during the day, if triggered, I could send a MM al_rt to you as ... "BULL Al_rt #1" then "BULL Al_rt #2" ... or "BEAR Al_rt #1" then "BEAR Al_rt #2"....

And it is that kind of stuff that computers do. Once a test is achieved, the computers does this, or that. Then waits for another test to be completed. Then executes. Waits, then executes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 7:54:26 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Here's something I want TRIN followers to do real quick. Bugger is "bullish" last couple of days! 0.54 today! Think 1.0 as your waterline (see today's high of 1.06). Where is 1.0? Yes. Darned close to tomorrow's DAILY R1.

See TRIN DAILY Pivot of 0.79? That's correlative with WEEKLY S1 (0.77).

Are you building somewhat of a "bearish what to watch out for" even before tomorrow's trade begins? How low can TRIN go? 0.00

I would repeat the process for TRINQ.

Now look at your VIX. Where was today's high? 11.74. OK... that's MONTHLY Pivot. See tomorrow's DAILY R1. Yeah... you're getting the feel. Take out DAILY R1, where's the next level of VIX upside? Yes! You see it. DAILY R2/WEEKLY R1.

This isn't too hard is it? It isn't ALWAYS true, but if VIX is a counter-indicator to the indices, where "should" the indices be trading IF VIX.X trades DAILY R1 tomorrow? How about DAILY S1?

What about TRIN? It "should" follow VIX... right?

Now we're cooking.

Now look at some of the YELLOW squares.

Oooooeeee! NDX/QQQQ are strong in the MONTHLY Pivot. They get a trade at MONTHLY R1 before the others.

Aha! REMEMBER how strong the NDX/QQQQ were last week relative to the INDU/SPX/OEX/BIX ? Why?

That's RIGHT! Google (GOOG) $411.18 +0.78% !

Where's GOOG in its WEEKLY Pivot? (see today's MM at 10:23:22) Just under MONTHLY R1, say $415.

INDU/DIA support correlations at DAILY S1/MONTHLY Pivot

Could be a wild one for the SPX as there are some pretty solid correlations at DAILY S2/MONTHLY Pivot and DAILY R2/WEEKLY R2.

SPY DAILY R2 / MONTHLY R1. How much did I/we pay for those April $131 Calls (part of the strangle?) Yes... $0.80 ($131 + 0.80 = 131.80) Earlier today, when I was "helping" Keene and Alan (start MM 10:31 AM EDT) I said I thought it was important (MM 12:39:59) to remember some trades.

Yeah ... for now, I'm thinking somebody said "Sold to you Mr. Magoo" just ahead of the FOMC. OK... What MIGHT happen above $131.80?

How about "VIX, VIX, pick up your bearish sticks...."

Huh? Austin Powers would say "Yeah baby, yeah." You know what to look for. Where to start getting some of your al_rts set.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 6:44:28 PM

YM with tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Retracement (10-minute intervals) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 6:25:42 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

I will say this now. I will be VERY surprise if between right now and tomorrow's release of Nonfarm Employment (08:30 AM EDT), that DAILY R1/WEEKLY R1 gets some type of action.

Canadian Unemployment due out at 07:00 AM EDT might be a preview. That's a little early for this Mountain Time Zone trader.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 6:02:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity ... Day traded long the ym06h (mini Dow $5 futures) at 11,244 and exited shy of target (11,300) at 11,285 (+41, or $205/contract)

LEAPs traded long two (2) of the UTStarcom UTSI Jan07 $7.50 Calls (OEU-AU) at the offer of $1.30. Targeting $12.98 for the underlying on, or before expiration. (Quarterly Pivot Levels for UTSI are $4.21, $5.25, Piv= $6.79, $7.83, $9.37.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 5:27:29 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 5:23:30 PM

That has to be the quote of the day ..."We have to train our students better so they can read their diplomas."

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 5:06:33 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 4:49:29 PM

YM conclusion chart, 10-minute intervals at this Link

Note: Don't forget that MMM $81.38 +5.06% was a VERY BIG REASON the YM was a "good trade" at previously identified support. (i.e. even if you were/are short YM from 11,300)

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 4:32:46 PM

Didn't have one buy/sell program premium today.

I don't know about you, but when the YM edged bacl above its WEEKLY Pivot and just sat there for about 20-minutes, I was thinking "don't give a sell premium now." Never got one, and boy did it make a nice move higher. Was also on the al_rt for some action at that 11,273 level. When it went above I was thinking "buy program premium?" Didn't get one there either, but Jane said "Looks like they're trying to drive the shorts out of the market." She might be onto something!

If "they" are going to drive shorts, a settlement above WEEKLY R1 would be a start.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:59:48 PM

Should be filled alert ... on the two (2) UTSI Jan07 $7.50 Calls (OEU-AU) at the offer of $1.30.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:53:52 PM

Leaps Trade Call cancel order alert, go market ... on the two (2) UTSI calls if you don't want to take the risk of getting a partial fill with 8 minutes left in the session, then maybe have to pay another commission tomorrow. Otherwise, I'm going to go offer at $1.30. I think one trader might have gotten filled at $1.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:47:26 PM

YM ... its a trader isn't it? Did go 11,307 after profile, then reversed course to 11,261, now 11,280.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:41:29 PM

I kind'a like that breakdown, running, exhaustion gap action in UTSI. Breakdown started at $25.00. Chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:36:43 PM

I don't know about you, but it is usually the ones you go in-between on, get filled right away, that end up losers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:35:30 PM

7, 7 bid at $1.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:34:43 PM

first ther were two, then there were 4. Now there is six, do I hear two more?

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:33:38 PM

OI Newsletter Plays at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:27:33 PM

Bulls LEAPs Call long alert ... for two (2) of the UTSI Jan07 $7.50 Calls (OEU-AU) at $1.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:24:11 PM

Let's let a potential bull trade in ICE cool a bit. I think there will be some time.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:22:56 PM

UTSI ... yesterday there was a lot of interest from buyers in the Jan07 calls. Saw some this morning too. I don't have a bull position yet, but really thinking about Jan08 for a ba, ba, ba, booo-yah

Here's that news item from yesterday Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:42:42 PM

UTSI $7.32 +9.25% Link ... stock was up big yesterday, again today. There was some positive fundamental news from the company yesterday. A couple of months ago I made special note here in the market monitor (mid-November I think) about a China contract win. Many thought that news wouldn't impact for several months. Bells might be starting to ring here.

BIIIIIIG short interest too

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:13:48 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:04:18 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 3:01:34 PM

ICE ... Will show a chart in a minute (almost 03:00) ... let's give benefit of doubt to bears and say that is a head/shoulder top (60-minute interval) where might "al_rt" the other day was the right shoulder. Neckline looks to be ascending, but horizontal would be $65-ish. MONTHLY Pivot could even work. Let's call head at $73.50, and WEEKLY 19.1% will work.

Pattern objective would be $56.50.

ICE at $61.00 now, DON't pay more than $6 for a call. Look a couple of months out at least!

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:46:44 PM

ICE is trying to "jell" at $60.56.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:46:01 PM

ICE ... good gravy! Just a couple of days ago I noted ICE potential short squeeze, minutes before it got crush on the prelim CME news. ICE April $70 Calls are heavy OI at 4,713.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:44:29 PM

Seeing some modestly bullish ICE April $55 Put selling with DnTickVol/UpTickVol 339:240.

$55 ... that's a strike at least one trader will remember.

OI on that strike is heaviest for April at 2,694. Volume I'm showing at CBOE is 736.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:35:42 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $21.22 -2.16% ... "defensive" ... I think was that bearish day trade target from a couple of days ago.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:33:46 PM

ICE $59.89 -4.67% ... WEEKLY S2 is up at $63.90.

Check out a 30-minute interval chart.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:27:45 PM

ICE $60.05 -4.42% ... I've got March's H/L/C as $73.59/$55.00/$68.95.

MONTHLY Pivot Levels come out as ... $47.26, $58.10, Piv= $65.85, $76.69, $84.44

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:22:34 PM

Punching up some MONTHLY Pivot levels for ICE. I think this is WAAAAAAY overdone.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:14:30 PM

CME $448.00 +0.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:14:09 PM

ICE $59.90 -4.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:13:43 PM

CME, NYMEX IN ENERGY, TECHNOLOGY DEAL DJ- Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings and the New York Mercantile Exchange have signed a 10-year agreement to move key Nymex energy futures contracts to CME's electronic-trading platform, Globex, people familiar with the talks say.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:11:57 PM

QQQQ $42.86 +0.58% .... good gravy!

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:06:00 PM

Oooooeeee! ... MMM $81.55 +5.29% ... YM bulls should thank this heavyweight too!

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:03:28 PM

YM 11,285 ... post profile high has been 11,291.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 2:02:14 PM

Fantastic work this week (again) Jane!

TRIN and YM really came together today didn't it?

The Pivot Levels? Having an idea of where computers might be set to do some buying/selling. Testing.... always testing.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:59:58 PM

Heeee, heee, heeee .... I guess we sold into some strong ticks!

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:57:16 PM

YM exit alert 11,285

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 1:57:06 PM

TICKs +1000 again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:56:54 PM

YM now a 2-minute interval chart. MACD traders again ... Link

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 1:56:52 PM

AD line is still -500 and AD volume is under 0. This last little rally is certainly not what you would call broad based rally. Link

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 1:54:43 PM

Silver and Gold are continuing their upward trek.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:49:02 PM

YM raise stop alert ... to 11,257

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:47:56 PM

11,279 ... edges above Keene's downward trend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:47:35 PM

oooooooooooo .... YM 11,275.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:46:02 PM

Day trade raise bullish stop alert ... for the YM 11,268 to 11,249. Just kissed DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:44:41 PM

Hey! That's when the YM hit its current session low of 11,223.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:43:28 PM

TRIN 0.76 ... biggest weighted stocks (price weighted index) are NYSE-listed.

TRIN spiked to 1.06 from 12:25-12:30.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:39:27 PM

Undoubtedly there are some SMA traders out there. Can kind of see how the 200-pd SMA plays out.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:37:49 PM

Ooops ... my "cursor box" wasn't set to the current interval.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:36:48 PM

YM now a 5-minute chart Link

Keene mentioned a downward trend so I put it on.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:32:51 PM

YM ... if you're a trader that really likes to use MACD, flip your chart interval to 5-minutes. I like MACD settings of (12,26,9). See how MACD approaches zero? That will tie in with DAILY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 1:32:42 PM

Dateline WSJ Prices for crude oil, gasoline, gold, silver and other commodities surged again, as interest rates continued to creep higher, temporarily replacing Wall Street's permagrin with a bit of a frown.

Crude-oil futures rose to nearly $68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, nearing their highest levels since January, while gasoline futures climbed to their highest levels since last September. Driving the gains were worries about -- oh, name it: Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, sinking gasoline inventories in the U.S., the coming driving season, etc. There once was a time when a $70 price tag on a barrel of oil might have broken the Seventh Seal and triggered the Apocalypse, but Wall Street has already been there, done that -- last year, in fact -- and survived. Goldman Sachs analysts last year were widely mocked for suggesting that it might take $100 oil to slow down the economy, but they might be closer to right than many people thought at the time.

Meanwhile, gold futures continued their recent climb, trading at $600 an ounce for the first time since January 1981, though still far from their all-time high of about $850. Silver prices rose to more than $12 an ounce, a fresh 22-year high, while copper prices were just below their all-time high. Platinum rose, too. Many buyers want precious metals to make jewelry and back up exchange traded funds. But some are looking for hedges against a dollar decline, too. "There is a lot of momentum now" for gold prices, analyst Peter Grandich, publisher of the metals-focused Grandich Letter, told Dow Jones. "The one added concern behind the most recent rise is foreigners are concerned that the U.S. dollar has topped out." Interestingly, the dollar was doing just fine today, rising against its chief rivals, the euro and the Japanese yen. Interest rates were helping; the European Central Bank took a pass on raising borrowing rates today, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note again flirted with 4.9%, near a two-year high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:28:17 PM

There was some type of chatter that stock futures got hit around 12:00 PM EDT regarding Cheney/Bush "wrong doings."

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:26:15 PM

ym06m ... 10-minute interval chart at this Link ... One level at a time now.

Before bulls can get to 11,300 area, got to get above that 11,273 overlap. Will keep an eye on that if we get there.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:22:27 PM

YM raise stop alert ... with YM at 11,256, raise stop to 11,235

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:17:22 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/6/2006 1:12:27 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:05:55 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 1:01:23 PM

YM Long entry alert 11,244 here, stop 11,220, target 11,300

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 12:56:49 PM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 12:43:52 PM

Where's that YM at?

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 12:43:34 PM

Hey! Didn't somebody recently ask a question "Overnight Dollar Weakness: Fed Almost Through, or Foreign Investors Through with Us?" Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 12:40:49 PM

Hey ... SPY trading right at FOMC decision level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 12:40:15 PM

I haven't updated my SPY WEEKLY Pivot retracement, but last week's WEEKLY Pivot was $130.22.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 12:39:17 PM

Ping! ... SPY $130.43 after trading low of $130.19.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 12:39:59 PM

SPY Options Chain (Keene/Alan conclusion) ... Updated SPY Options chain (sorted by most active) at this Link

OK ... we see a bullish bias from the SPY DN/UPTick volume, but why the heck is the SPY down 0.42%.

Aha! TRIN and TRINQ are DIVERGING. Something must be a little more "bearish" on the NYSE than NASDAQ is a general thought. Maybe a BIG WEIGHTED STOCK for the SPY/SPX having some trouble today.

VIX ties with what I see in the DnTick/UpTick Vol of my option chain. Of the 6 most active (if options volume has gotten my attention). Right? VIX moves up on call selling/put buying outnumbering call buying/put selling.

And what I REALLY LIKE TO DO, boy is this important, is I like to look at TRADES I have made, or have seen OTHERS MAKE/PROFILE and see where those trade are at now!

I highlight in PINK the "strangle" trade I (Jeff Bailey) put on just ahead (call) then after (put) the FOMC meeting, when the SPY was trading (check MM archive) $130.25-ish.

If he/she closed the trade, how would it still be doing IF OPEN?

Can I learn and potentially PROFIT from a MISTAKE, or a SUCCESS?

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 12:04:42 PM

Keene/Alan ... I want to continue with my earlier post and options chain "process."

The options that look unusual (volume, or Up/Dn Tick) I like to continue to ask "why?" Or what is that trader thinking, and in what time frame.

Keep in mind VIX.X and a base concept that institutions like to SELL high VOLATILITY/PREMIUMS, and BUY lower VOLATILITY/PREMIUMS. Understand how the VIX.X gets its movement. It is NOT JUST call buying and put buying.

What is "low" and "high" premiums? VIX.X numbers are only relative. A couple of years ago, 30.00 was considered "low" and many thought SPX was set to collapse. Boy was that black box blown up.

Where is VIX, say .... relative to WEEKLY Pivot levels? Is it high for the week? Is it low for the week? If June call/put action is heavy, does it make sense to focus on where VIX is relative to DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot levels? Probably not. Maybe more sense relative to MONTHLY, even quarterly pivot levels.

I would certainly think ANY futures trader (not just a cash trader) would want to check in on an options chain from time-to-time. Options are a DERIVATIVE just like FUTURES are a derivative. They are instruments that were created to HEDGE cash RISK.

Keene Little : 4/6/2006 11:42:31 AM

Jeff, thanks for the update on the SPY options. Good stuff.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 11:40:31 AM

Anadarko (APC) $104.78 -0.20% Link ... WEEKLY R2 $107.53, WEEKLY R1 $104.27, WEEKLY Pivot $101.44

ConocoPhillips (COP) $67.55 +1.49% Link .... WEEKLY R2 $67.68, WEEKLY R1 $65.42, WEEKLY Pivot $63.28.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 11:34:44 AM

Amereda Hess (AHC) $146.31 -1.30% Link ... slips back under WEEKLY R2 $147.23.

WEEKLY R1 $144.72, WEEKLY Piv= $142.13

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 11:28:20 AM

SPY $130.76 -0.25% ... now have Sep $133 Put, SPY $133 Call, May $131 Put, Apr $131 Put as most actives.

$133 puts is non-directional, where DnTick greater than UpTick volume. Sep $133 Calls also non-directional.

May $131 Puts and April $131 puts both directional.


Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 11:20:16 AM

RUT.X ... a/d 585:1061

TRIN 0.74

TRINQ 0.36

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 11:16:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 11:02:52 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:54:14 AM

EVERY day is a good day to keep an eye on TRIN and VIX.

TRINQ and VXN.X also.

QQQQ $42.65 +0.19% ....

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 10:53:14 AM

Last night I read that everyone is quite confused about the new crude ETF USO and do not know when it will start trading. Sigh!

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 10:48:47 AM

Look at how the TRIN and the VIX are tracking each other today. This is probably a good day to keep an eye on both of these. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:51:46 AM

Then I suggest traders look at an option chain, sorted by most active like this Link

The last couple of weeks, Jane and I have been discussing TRIN and I've also been commenting on $TRINQ which throws in some NASDAQ a/d/volume. Not unlike the Russell 2000, the S&P 500 also has many NASDAQ-listed stocks comprising it.

SPY has turned 4.6 million shares. This is a fact.

Most active option I see is the SEP $133 Put, with 5,500 contracts traded CBOE. That's 550,000 equivalent.

The "near-term" options does look directional, and bearish with May $131 Put all buyers (UpTickVol). I like to say this. Willing to buy $1.70 to be able to sell $131. If this is the smartest money in the market, then a downside target of $131 - $1.70 = $129.30 (I'll look for that level in the Pivot Matrix and see if it "makes sense." Even though it is May, and I only have April MONTHLY, I'll still look.


Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:33:50 AM

VIX 11.45 +2.87% ... put buyers/call sellers are outnumbering put sellers/call buyers at this point (this is first check)

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:32:21 AM

Will take a look Keene/Alan

Keene Little : 4/6/2006 10:31:00 AM

Jeff, I don't follow options as closely as you do on SPY. Here's a question from a reader that I thought you might be able to take a stab at: Any thoughts on the large disparity of volume on SPY options? Puts were popular. Alan

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:30:59 AM

EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:23:22 AM

Google (GOOG) 10-minute interval chart with DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot levels at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:18:33 AM

CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) alert 235.60 +0.92% Link ... sets up for test of 52-week highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:13:27 AM

Google (GOOG) $411.67 +0.92% ... high of session on volume!

Starting to "feel" as if some shorts under pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:11:02 AM

Pantry (PTRY) $65.76 +1.12% Link ... X gets the square at $66.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 10:03:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 9:59:26 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 9:55:59 AM

ym06m 11,288 ... traders looking to play some MMM strength, eyeballing a YM pullback into DAILY S1/WEEKLY Pivot correlation, then target a bounce back to WEEKLY R1, or 11,360 for more aggressive move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 9:53:03 AM

MMM $80.36 +3.74% ... WEEKLY R2 at $79.81.

ym06m 11,286 ... morning low has been DAILY Pivot. Morning high has been MONTHLY 38.2% retracement (11,299)

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 9:44:17 AM

3M (MMM) $80.25 +3.60% Link ... Technical alert on StockCharts.com's PnF chart. Trade at $80.00 is triple top buy signal, break of bearish resistance.

Dow heavyweight here.

Company raises sales and earnings guidance.

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 9:43:43 AM

Maybe the TRIN is "predicting" a bullish day because it is now 0.56.

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 9:40:29 AM

Now the VIX has retraced and is making new daily lows and the AD volume is positive. Didn't take long did it?

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 9:40:19 AM

Google (GOOG) $409.36 +0.37% Link ... "hot" in early going.

Google and Craiglists are entering the online real estate market. Real estate listings on Craigslist tripled in March from a year ago.

Hmmmm... some synergy here with "Google Earth."

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 9:39:11 AM

If you watch the TRIN it is suspiciously below its previous day range at 0.61.

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 9:38:00 AM

AD line is -552 and AD volume below 0 so these support the bearish VIX. I think I will have to give the reins to the bears. But how many times have we seen the bears with the reins and then the bulls get their mojo back and yank them right out of the bears claws.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 9:36:49 AM

Apollo Group (APOL) $52.87 +3.30% Link ... "School stocks" have been getting a bounce lately.

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 9:35:51 AM

VIX is peeking above its previous day high, which is bearish for ES.

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 9:34:26 AM

Halliburton (HAL) $77.60 +0.33% Link ... British construction and support services group Carillion Plc said its joint venture Aspire Defence had been awarded a contract worth around 12 billion pounds ($21 billion) by Britain's Ministry of Defence (MoD).

Carillion said Aspire had been awarded the contract to develop army garrisons at Aldershot and Salisbury Plain in southern England and to provide support services to these garrisons for the next 35 years.

The group said the joint venture partners would invest a total of 120 million pounds of equity in the project.

Aspire Defence, 45% owned by Halliburton

Jeff Bailey : 4/6/2006 9:25:47 AM

Blue Dolphin Energy (BDCO) $4.00 Link ... surging higher to $5.02 in pre-market trade and atop the list of most actives.

Company recently reported net income of $909,198 on revenues of $1,675,156 for the quarter ended December 31, 2005, compared to a net loss of $616,827 on revenues of $475,341 for the quarter ended December 31, 2004. Fourth quarter 2005 results improved primarily due to increased revenues from the sale of oil and gas of approximately $1,245,000.

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 9:20:14 AM

Considering the bad news about Merck it is only down $1.23 overnight.

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 9:18:30 AM

Dateline WSJ Retailers posted mostly tepid sales for March, hurt by the timing of Easter and wintry temperatures that chilled spring shopping.

A calendar shift this year will push back Easter to April 16, three weeks later than a year ago. As a result, retailers expected to lose some of the holiday sales that they typically see in March -- especially at teen retailers, as spring breaks at high schools tend to track the timing of Easter.

Persistently cold and wet weather, especially in the West, also damped demand for spring fashions and lawn-and-garden products. Stiff gasoline prices and a slowing housing market may also be damping consumer spirits.

"All the worries -- in terms of housing, interest rates, inflation, energy prices -- are clearly at hand," says Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers. "But we haven't seen that worry turn into a dramatic pullback on the part of the consumer. We're seeing a moderately strong pace of sales for now, and that's the good news."

Jane Fox : 4/6/2006 9:06:57 AM

Good morning all. A very good night for all the gold bugs out there, that little yellow metal hit a high of 601.90 overnight, a level many many were predicting. But what now? If Gold stays above $580 then I will remain bullish on the market but it falls below that then a further retracement may be ahead.

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