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OI Technical Staff : 4/7/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 5:38:04 PM

Per 04:15:37 Here is a DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot Matrix where I only show the INDU/SPX/NDX/VIX/TRIN Link

This is what we looked at in yesterday afternoon's Market Monitor.

NQ/NDX/QQQQ traders. I don't provide TRINQ and VXN.X pivot levels due to vertical space limits, but you would be well served to calculate them.

Jane (per 03:57:19) ... As I said earlier this week. The TRIN hasn't changed. It "said" today, what it says every day. Just as the VIX "said" today what it says every day. The TRIN itself didn't predict anything today. However, when we looked at the PIVOT MATRIX last night, and various LEVELS (VIX included) we could envision what might take place today, and what to look for.

Was today a "wild day" for the SPX? I'd say so.

Each indicator by itself can give the "wrong signal." Or it will DIVERGE from what you, I, or anyone thought is should have said.

Everyone (me included): This exercise of drawing today's action seems elementary. If you REALLY WANT TO LEARN how to "read" these indicators, then today is a great starting point. Whipsaw days are the ones that can leave a trader confused, frozen in their tracks in coming sessions.

Write this down .... as I will say it (type it now). In the days to come, the TRIN, or the TRINQ, or the VIX, or the VXN will NOT CONFIRM, or it will NOT HAVE PREDICTED the right action for the index you trade.

The ERROR in that belief, will be the error of using, or relying on THAT ONE INDICATOR by itself.

After you are done with today's "homework," I'll then PROVE TO YOU, within the PIVOT MATRIX, why you, me, or somebody else believed the INDICATOR didn't work.

Only when you VISUALIZE/SEE it, can you begin to UNDERSTAND it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 4:15:37 PM

Please ... take a couple of minutes this afternoon, while today's session is FRESH IN YOUR MIND and do the following.

Pull up a chart of TRIN

PRINT out, or at least look at BOTH your DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot Matrix.

With pen in hand, I want YOU to look at the TRIN and draw the "flow" of TRIN from the opening bell. Your TRIN line should start ABOVE DAILY R2 and you should begin drawing to the LEFT and at 09:45-09:50 AM you will hit 0.85 on your chart. WHERE IS YOUR PEN RELATIVE TO 1.00? WHERE IS YOUR PEN RELATIVE TO DAILY PIVOT?

Now start following TRIN back HIGHER (to the right). Go to the next inflection point at 10:45-10:50 at TRIN 1.47 (YOU and I know how TRIN gets there, but what does it mean?) Good gravy! It is off the chart at 1.47, ABOVE DAILY R2!

Keep going for the remainder of the day.

Once you are done, then pull up a chart of the VIX.

With pen in hand, do the same thing you just did with the TRIN.

When you are done with the VIX

Pull up a chart of the SPX. With pen in hand, chart the intra-day action of the SPX.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 4:00:49 PM

In my last post the VIX was confirming the bearishness in ES but I cannot get that same read from the TRIN.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 3:59:38 PM

See how the VIX and ES trade opposite to one another so "divergences" here mean something to me. But the TRIN was kind of meanering and I just cannot get a hold of it. Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 3:57:19 PM

Jeff most definitely today the TRIN was a predictor. I will now start watching it closer to see if that continues. I used to watch it and called it "Mother TRIN" but lately it has not been an internal I can "read." I will now give it another shot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 4:02:17 PM

Yes it has Jane. Quite a turn from this morning. Your 09:36:06 post really drives home the point of TRIN's importance.

Now VIX followers are going to be wondering if it is an indicator worth following.

Does ANYBODY remember my "rambling" the other day about driving a car/truck and the gas pedal/clutch analogy.

I'm NOT, I repeat NOT critiquing Jane, Marc, anyone.

Everyone should ask themselves ... What went wrong with the "VIX is making new daily lows, confirming ES's bullishness."

I (Jeff Bailey) believe (based on observation) that the fact that ANY INDICATOR that breaches a prior day's high, or low, DOESN'T CONFIRM ANYTHING.

On MONDAY, or any other day, JUST BECAUSE TRIN, TRINQ, TRINS, VIX, VIXN breaks above/below today's high/low will not necessarily confirm anything.

It is the "spacial concept" of things that I'm trying to drive home to traders.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 3:46:56 PM

This has been an excellent day for the bears. Selling and the buyers were not able to reverse it.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 3:20:58 PM

TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 3:47:17 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

TRIN example.... NOW I ADD WEEKLY PIVOT (1.29) from my Excel spreadsheet tabulation.

Start the day with a clean brain!

If TRIN is above 1.0, then a "sell bias."

BUT, BUT, BUT ... WHERE IS TRIN RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAY's/WEEK's mid-point. And other levels?

I think EVERYONE is getting a firm grasp of how TRIN is comprised (a/d and volume).

I've said before, that indicators like TRIN and VIX are easy to understand. That is... it is easy to understand how they are comprised.

But that's not enough.

I (Jeff Bailey) have a pretty good understanding of how an airplane flies (the concept throttle, lift, pull the wheel to go up, push the wheel to go down). But YOU wouldn't want me in the pilot's seat!

In this forum (and I've been doing this for years and get the e-mail of confusion) is that the a/d line will be VERY bearish, a chart will be shown, TRIN will be 1.05, and it becomes "you don't want to be buying this market."

"Aha! Then I (the subsciber/trader) will come in with both fists and short it!"

Ka-Boom! 100-point ym, 15-point es rally.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 3:06:06 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 3:02:25 PM

TRIN 1.28

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 3:02:01 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,298.28 , YM 11,197

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 3:01:21 PM

TRIN 1.26 ... above 1.00 is "sell side bias." That's simple to understand. 1.00 is a waterline. Above 1.00 is more bearish, below 1.00 is more bullish.

BUT, BUT, BUT ... a trader HAS TO PUT IT INTO CONTEXT and TIE IT WITH LEVELS for the index they are trading (TRIN is NYSE, so indices that have more 1, 2 and 3-lettered stocks in them).

How does a trader even come CLOSE to knowing is 1.70 "more bearish today" than say .... 1.50 on Monday?

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 3:01:10 PM

Ticks -800

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 2:56:58 PM

Another divergence from the days previous is the TICK +800 hardly moved the market. This is the kind of stuff I was looking for to tell me things were changing. Of course this is only one day and we know it can look a whole lot different come Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:56:02 PM

May Heating Oil (ho06k) $1.89 (unch) ... that's all I can find on my own.

Started reading Marc's response to TRIN

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:50:55 PM

Treasury's Adams (comment) No Sign of China Paring U.S. Debt Holdings

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:48:56 PM

XOM $61.79 -0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:48:33 PM

MMM $81.20 -0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:47:25 PM

12-minutes to the top of the hour. "The most important hour of the day." Tyler Matheson (CNBC)

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:46:11 PM

YM ... bulls sniff a WEEKLY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:45:43 PM

TRIN 1.22 ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:44:47 PM

YM 11,213 ... did see 11,221

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 2:42:21 PM

TICKs +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:40:52 PM

Going to pop on over to the futures monitor, see if they've noticed if any commodities are finding buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:39:34 PM

Junk bonds?

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:39:09 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 89.62 +0.74% ... the mighty greenback is strong today.

With the selling in Treasuries and equities, that cash has to buy something I guess.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:36:45 PM

US Treasury's Adams (comments)

Don't Know What Appropriate Yuan Rate Is

Markets Will Decide What Yuan Rate Should Be

High Rate Of China Internal Investment Inefficient

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 2:34:20 PM

Jeff that's great. Where did you hear this?

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:31:07 PM

Jane! Your crude oil ETF will begin trading on Monday!

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:29:54 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 906.81 -0.45% ...

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.49 +0.63% ...

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) up 8.0 bp at 4.973% ...

Not what I would have expected if market overly worried about Fed activity. Not today's action anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:25:20 PM

Garmin (GRMN) $82.41 -0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:24:53 PM

Palm (PALM) $24.18 +0.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:24:13 PM

RESEARCH IN MOTION SLIDES ON OUTLOOK DJ- Shares fall 5.4% after Blackberry maker forecasts 1Q revenue of $580 million-$610 million and adjusted earnings of 62c-67c a share, below analysts' estimates for earnings of 76c on revenue of $625 million.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:21:32 PM

SENATE IMMIGRATION BILL FALLS SHORT DJ- Senate sidetracks sweeping immigration legislation, leaving in doubt prospects for passing bill offering hope of citizenship to people living in U.S. illegally. Compromise receives 38 of 60 votes necessary to protect it from weakening amendments.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:19:51 PM

Google (GOOG) 407.44 -0.90% ... session low still $404.02 with WEEKLY R1 of $404.33

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:14:20 PM

YM 11,195

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:13:56 PM

TRIN 1.53

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:12:49 PM

TRIN alert ... 1.28 ... just kissed WEEKLY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:11:58 PM

YM 11,206

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:10:42 PM

ALLSTATE BUYOUT OFFER DRAWS 1,000 TAKERS DJ- About 1,000 workers take advantage of a voluntary termination offer made in the wake of a record-breaking hurricane season last year. Insurance company will most likely take a charge in the 1Q to reflect buyout costs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:08:45 PM

JP MORGAN LOSES KINDLER TO MORGAN STANLEY DJ- J.P. Morgan Chase global mergers-and-acquisitions head Robert A. Kindler is defecting to rival Morgan Stanley in one of the most high-profile M&A shake-ups of the year. Kindler will become a vice chairman of investment banking at Morgan Stanley.

JPM $41.80 -1.15%

MS $63.94 -0.86%

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:06:08 PM

FORD PRESIDENT TO RETIRE AMID WAVE OF DEPARTURES DJ- Ford President and Chief Operating Officer Jim Padilla will retire as of July 1, the latest senior executive to leave the No. 2 U.S. auto maker as it restructures. Padilla is also expected to leave his seat on Ford's board.

NO FORD EXECS RECEIVE 2005 BONUS Auto maker discloses chairman and CEO Ford Jr.'s compensation for 2005 is $13.3 million. Company also reveals the board will reduce the number of directors to 12 from 15.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 2:02:28 PM

iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) $74.98 -1.63% ... #7 most active Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:59:48 PM

CME SHARES CONTINUE TO RALLY DJ - Stock climbs 5.8% to a fresh high in the afterglow of yesterday's announcement that gives the Chicago Mercantile Exchange listings for New York Mercantile Exchange energy products.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:54:27 PM

Symantec (SYMC) $16.53 -2.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:53:50 PM

McAfee (MFE) $24.36 -2.59% ... Internet security software maker lower. I thought I heard earlier this morning that they had warned on earnings, but don't see anything.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:45:54 PM

Current trade... DIA $111.30 -0.77%

SPY $129.60 -0.97%

QQQQ $42.40 -0.77%

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:44:39 PM

We haven't seen nearly the number of sell premiums we observed on 3/22/06 to this point.

On 03/22/06, the DIA finished $113.06 +0.66%

SPY $130.38 +0.60%

QQQQ $41.21 +0.24%

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:40:50 PM

Get the feeling this YM Monthly Pivot somewhat meaningfull. Bull's computers not happy it has been traded.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:39:12 PM

YM ... that/this 5-minute volume bar almost EXACTLY the same as the 12:10-12:15 sell premium volume bar.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:37:33 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,297.35 ... YM 11,190

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:37:05 PM

Anemic Volume ... what does anemic, or light volume tell me (Jeff Bailey) ... little interest among market participants, and very little disagreement.

For every buyer there's a seller, and for every seller there's a buyer.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:34:20 PM

YM 11,198 -0.71% ... volume still "anemic" on afternoon high of 11,210.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:33:11 PM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:29:23 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:15:51 PM

here they come! They saw the "junk bond" action too!

ym 11,208

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:08:25 PM

Answer could well be : HUNGER FOR CAPITAL APPRECIATION instead of the "income/yield"

The "kicker" a bond trader will look for in "junk bond" is the capital appreciation of the underlying.

I had to take Tab's EVV off the Market Watch to make room for the TRINQ.

EVV offers the same type of "yield" as PHF, but the short-term nature of the EVV's maturity doesn't have the capital appreciation kicker of a junk bond asset class. EVV $17.32 -0.91%

Tab Gilles : 4/7/2006 1:05:39 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Expecting a pullback, set stop at close below $50. Taking some money off the table here is wise after run up. Jan 45 '07 call Leap B$8.90/ A$9.20. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:04:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

PHF action ... WHY, I wonder WHY market participants would be selling the RISKIEST bond asset class, and SELLING the "safer" asset class of Treasuries?

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 1:00:48 PM

PHF $9.49 +0.63% ... Wow! I did sell my long position for this "junk bond" closed-end fund.

This "bid" is the BIGGEST surprise of anything I've seen today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:57:00 PM

YM 11,190 ... 3-minutes until the top of the hour!

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:56:25 PM

Last night's Pivot Matrix observation for the indices. That's not the first time I've outlined a "what to look for."

Proof this morning when I covered the YM at DAILY Pivot, is that I didn't believe the SPX was really going to trade DAILY S2 today and WEEKLY Pivot.

Do you feel that REGARDLESS of what the nonfarm data was, computers were set up to sell?

Kind'a saw that pre-market (cash) with the YM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:50:57 PM

TRIN 1.46 ... feel is that it doesn't come back below DAILY R1 and the 1.00 waterline.

YM might gravitate back toward its DAILY S1 and WEEKLY Pivot area into the close.

I have it a bull shot right in here at 11,197, but anemic volume on that slight bid above MONTHLY Pivot hints computers aren't overly aggressive to be buying to drive the YM up through the bear's ears.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:47:29 PM

I'm probably "done for the day" on YM trade. My feel, based on observation, is daily "inflection points" have been found.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:45:32 PM

TRIN 1.54

VIX 12.00

YM 11,194

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:44:16 PM

YM 11,191 ... new bull long "had to" protect back below DAILY S2. Could have gotten flushed like action at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:42:18 PM

Volume still "anemic"

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:41:58 PM

YM 11,187 ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:41:24 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert for the YM 11,185

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:38:28 PM

TRIN 1.60

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:37:52 PM

YM 11,190

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:37:39 PM

YM 11,186 ... it is going to be close!

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:37:14 PM

YM 11,194 ... bear saying "volume just as anemic" back below MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:33:02 PM

YM updated 5-minute chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:29:58 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert to 11,185.

See how the YM "stood on end" at DAILY S2? Volume "anemic" in my opinion on this move above MONTHLY Pivot, so aggressive with raising my stop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:28:36 PM

YM 11,206.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:28:19 PM

If YM above 11,200, what kind of volume do YOU think would indicate computers turning back on for the bull side?

If it is "anemic" then still very cautious.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:27:05 PM

YM 11,197

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:26:40 PM

YM 11,194 ... my thought from the sell side (if I were still short from this morning) is that I'd be trailing stop above MONTHLY Pivot (11,200) and thinking ... "this a very nice gain, look to short back at 11,240. Don't let profit slip away above 11,200, but I need the break of that sell premium low to think WEEKLY S1."

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:23:49 PM

Tough area in here. Longs and shorts should be able to see where each other's targets are, and stops are.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:22:42 PM

YM updated 5-minute chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:17:55 PM

TRIN 1.65

VIX 11.96

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:17:29 PM

YM long entry alert 11,195, stop 11,170, target 11,238.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:16:45 PM

YM Long alert IF the YM trades 11,195, then go long, stop 11,170.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 12:18:01 PM

AD line -1861 a new yearly low!!!!

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:15:53 PM

When an S2 (support 2) shows sign of resistance, new bull entry has to be very suspicious.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:14:58 PM

YM 11,180 ... holds it nicely. Session low still 11,169 wasn't violated.

Get the feel from the sell premium that a long may be trying to reduce exposure on break of MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:12:55 PM

Sell Program Premium ... not kidding.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 12:12:31 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart, where I also show the VIX/TRIN/VXN/TRINQ indications at this Link ... Price risk/reward better for a short at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:54:57 AM

Google (GOOG) $405.21 -1.45% ... session low $404.02 and WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:53:41 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $56.94 -0.57% ... that's all?

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:48:37 AM

Google (GOOG) $405 -1.39% ... now it is giving up some ground

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:46:16 AM

SPX 1,298.37 ... DAILY S2 got pegged!

DAILY R2 not quite this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:44:34 AM

VIX 11.90 ... just off session high of 11.92.

WEEKLY R1 close at 11.96

Check out a 5-minute interval chart and you can see the "juke and jive" around the 11.75 measure and MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:42:55 AM

TRIN 1.56 ... has been as high as 1.69

WEEKLY R1 still higher at 2.20 and we could see further sell pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:41:40 AM

Let's see where our TRIN and VIX have been.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:41:03 AM

YM ... cancel bull setup alert at this point.

It didn't "kiss" the DAILY S2, it "darted" a bit too much to 11,175.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 11:39:57 AM

Buy programs have been non-existent today.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 11:38:58 AM

If we get the MACD to cross up here we will have our first bullish divergence of the day.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 11:36:41 AM

VIX to new daily highs and the TRIN is also to new daily at 1.64.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 11:35:27 AM

Egads the AD line is -1616!

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:29:56 AM

CME $473.00 +3.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:29:26 AM

Good gravy! How about some "crushed ICE" for the morning coffee?

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:28:44 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ... PTR-PR and OEU-AU are my open profiles. Check out the only gainer in the "watch" section.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:20:05 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 11:11:36 AM

Unless these improve a lot I certainly agree with Marc's 11:02 post. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:06:13 AM

YM long setup alert YM juuust undercut its MONTHLY Pivot. Here's the setup I look for.

WAIT for another session low and a kiss of DAILY S2, then take the long side back above MONTHLY Pivot, and look for the sell side to come with their short covering and "ramp" the YM back to WEEKLY Pivot, where it should digest the morning action.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:03:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 11:00:05 AM

YM ... if looking long, the "most" you can have in your mind is 11,240 and WEEKLY Pivot by the close.

This is interesting to me. Yesterday we booked a 41 point gain from the bull side. This morning we book a 40 point gain from the bear side.

If I took a long here at MONTHLY Pivot, got a bounce back to WEEKLY Pivot, that would be 40 points.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:57:16 AM

TRIN 1.34 ... thinking is ... SAME selling pressure as found earlier this morning. "Bearish gas"

It's the "lower price" that matters most and becomes more attractive to longs, and short covering sellers. YM 11,203 ... as session unfolds, thinking DAILY S2 now.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:55:49 AM

Here is McMillan's weekly commentary The underlying tone of the market remains bullish, as do the technical indicators. Having said that, it's certainly been a slow rise. Despite having made a new, marginal 5-year high on Wednesday, $SPX is essentially at the same price it was on March 16th -- three weeks ago. There is now short-term support at 1305 on $SPX -- with more major support at 1290-1295. When we say the 'tone' of the market is bullish, we mean that 1) it has ignored several potentially bearish negative intraday reversals (the latest of which came last Monday), and 2) it has continued to rise, even after the quarter-end gyrations were finished.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals, as shown in Figures 2 and 3. The buy signals -- which were generated about two weeks ago -- came at fairly high levels on the charts. That is good, in that they arose from oversold conditions.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) has struggled for nearly all of this year. As we noted some time ago, breadth is just not one of the leading indicators right now.

Finally, volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have remained at very low levels, and that is conducive to the bullish case. $VIX did rise some on Thursday, but that's just because there is fear that Friday's employment numbers might produce some volatility in the stock market.

The sum of all these bullish indicators should be able to propel this market higher during the rest of April -- the last half of which is a traditional bullish seasonal period. We are looking for $SPX to rise to the 1320-1325 area, at least. After that, though, the 'sell in May and go away' axiom takes hold, and the market might run into trouble. But as long as $SPX holds above 1290, the bulls are in charge.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:53:29 AM

I now see signs of a bottom forming.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:53:29 AM

YM 11,214 ... session low now has been 11,201

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:51:42 AM

Arch Capital (ACGL) $58.10 +0.13% ... only stock I show green in the OI Play List.

Just some broader weakness is the point here. I saw where the play list took some profits off the table in last night's update. They are doing a heck of a job in my opinion!

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:49:16 AM

TRIN 1.31

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:48:59 AM

VIX 11.78

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:48:16 AM

It is a "gully washer" ... YM at monthly pivot.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:46:25 AM

TICKS -800

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:43:39 AM

Keene and I are certainly on the same page when it comes to how to trade this market. (10:39 post)

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:42:34 AM

MMM $81.31 -0.08% ... not much of a giveback for this big gun. In my mind, I equate yesterday's percentage rise like a GOOG 10% daily rise.

GOOG $409.37 -0.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:38:02 AM

YM ... 11,253 with low of 11,236.

I'll look bull at some point (perhaps), but the "easy trade" was had.

Let it dance around for an hour or so, settle down.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:37:37 AM

These two charts are quite bearish as well. Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:36:38 AM

Under these conditions I would have taken a short but these were not this bearish when my short triggered. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:34:56 AM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $7.07 -3.15% ...

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:34:36 AM

I certainly need more evidence of the bears taking control of this market and the program buying is coming to an end before I will take a short that is not setup the way I need it to be.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:33:17 AM

Jeff my system went long at 9:35 but my stats have shown me the first 1/2 hour of trading is not profitable so I did not take it. I also didn't take the short because, like I have stated in the last few weeks, I need a pristine setup for shorts and I did not have it when the short triggered. I played the probabilities on that one and lost but it was a good trade because I stuck to my plan.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:31:07 AM

BIX 371.93 -0.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:28:17 AM

Great trading Jane! I was "afraid" you went long at 09:36-09:37

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:26:32 AM

YM 11,241

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:25:52 AM

... now lets see the if the bulls will jump out of the shadows and reverse this selling. It has happened so many times before I would be a very very nervous short right now and be taking as many profits as possible. The probabilities remain with the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:24:16 AM

If still short, WEEKLY Pivot 11,240 is a real day trade bear target. YM low 11,245.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:23:36 AM

YM 11,255 ... whack, ck, ck, ck

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:23:09 AM

This is so different from the last few weeks. The bears have actually grabbed the reins from the bulls and not the other way around. AD line is a bearish -710 and AD volume is falling. How cool!

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:22:06 AM

Futures traders have got to use their TRIN and TRINQ don't they?

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:21:58 AM

VIX to new daily highs and confirms ES's new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:21:19 AM

Will see if the VIX confirms now.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:21:15 AM

TICKS -800 and my short is well into the black now.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 10:20:50 AM

Dateline Marketwatch.com Inventories at U.S. wholesalers increased by 0.8% in February, while sales were flat, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.17 from a record low 1.16 in January.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a 0.5% rise in inventories in February. January's inventory gain was revised to 0.2% from 0.1% earlier.

The 0.2% rise in sales of durable goods was due almost entirely to the 1.7% rise in auto sales. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.6%, led by a 1.8% increase in auto inventories. The inventory-to-sales ratio for durables rose to 1.49 from 1.48.

Sales of nondurable goods fell 0.1%, led by a 1.6% drop in petroleum sales.

The figures are not adjusted for price changes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:20:48 AM

Sell Program Premium 1,306.20

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:20:17 AM

YM 11,270

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:19:59 AM

Bearish day trade cover alert for the YM 11,275

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:12:40 AM

Day trade lower stop alert ... on the YM to 11,305. YM 11,288 here.

Bear does NOT like the BIX holding so firm at DAILY Pivot to this point.

YM day trade bear takes notes, knows the target.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:08:21 AM

BIX.X 373.42 -0.01% ... session low came right at DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 10:04:04 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:59:44 AM

TRIN 1.12

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:59:22 AM

Finger on the profit button ... ym 11,290 ... need a little more selling.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:57:26 AM

Day trade short lower stop alert on the YM juuust above the cash session high of 11,328.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:55:11 AM

MMM $81.76 +0.46%

XOM $62.29 +0.32% (Oil a little weak this morning, XOM has some weight in INDU/DIA/YM)

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:53:06 AM

YM ... 11,305

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:52:52 AM

TRIN ... 1.00 (ahhhhh)

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:50:42 AM

TRIN ... 0.95 (gulp!)

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:49:51 AM

Day trade short alert for the YM here at 11,315, stop 11,335, target 11,270.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:47:05 AM

TRIN 1.11 ... sitting right on top of DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:46:06 AM

MMM $81.67 +0.35% ...

XOM $62.54 +0.70% ...

YM up 35 at 11,314.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:43:03 AM

Regional Banks Index (BIX.X) 374.79 +0.35% ... just off session high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:40:50 AM

Correction! ... there was a sell program there, but not a sell premium on the SPX

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:39:28 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,313.52

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:37:07 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 9:36:57 AM

AD line is now +748 and AD volume is rising. TICKS +800 so the bulls have the reins.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 9:36:06 AM

TRIN spikes to high of 1.52 quite a bearish number as ES makes a new daily high. Vix is making new daily lows confirming ES's bullishness.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 9:33:48 AM

AD line is a neutral +291 and AD volume is virtually 0. VIX is mid range but I do see the TRIN at a bearish 1.41. HMMMM

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:31:28 AM

Energy futures under pressure early.

May Crude Oil -1.25%, Unleaded -2%

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:29:54 AM

YM 5-minute interval bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:25:35 AM

YM 11,293 after popping to a 5-minute bar clos of 1,322 on the jobs data. That 5-minute close come right at your DAILY 19.1% retracement.

Has the look of some "determined" selling.

Be cautious at the cash open folks.

Jeff Bailey : 4/7/2006 9:23:15 AM

Program Trading Levels... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+9.13 and set for program selling at $+6.88.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 today is $7.82.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 9:12:43 AM

The next economic report we will be watching for is the 10:00 release of Wholesale inventories.

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 9:11:22 AM

Interestingly though bonds were unsure as to how to handle the 8:30 data. First of all they broke previous day lows then retraced and made a new overnight high but are now heading back to their overnight lows. Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 9:08:05 AM

Needless to say the markets really liked the employment data that came out at 8:30. Every market broke its respective previous day high. Link

Jane Fox : 4/7/2006 9:05:05 AM

Dateline WSJ U.S. employment posted a sizable jump last month, pushing the unemployment rate back to five-year lows and suggesting that underlying forces remain positive for consumers.

The Labor Department said Friday that nonfarm payrolls climbed 211,000 after rising by 225,000 in February and 154,000 in January. Previous estimates showed a 243,000-job increase in February and a 170,000 gain in January.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, matching the lowest level since July 2001.

Average hourly earnings rose $0.03 to $16.49. That 0.2% monthly increase suggests that a tight jobs market hasn't yet led to significant wage pressures. The increase in year-on-year terms was 3.4%. The average work week was unchanged at 33.8 hours.

The data is a mixed bag for Federal Reserve policy makers. The decline in the unemployment rate could fan anxiety about heightened resource utilization, but the slim rise in hourly wages suggests the tight jobs market hasn't yet led to significantly higher labor costs.

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