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Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2006 1:14:19 AM

Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) Link ... is down 183.29 points, or -1.05% at 17,234.84. After last night's AA earnings, the $NIKK was also weak, with gains narrowly focused among non-ferrous metals.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2006 12:43:44 AM

Overnight short alert for the YM 11,145 here, stop 11,175, target 11,080.

I'm going to bed and will not be able to issue any further alerts until morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2006 12:17:07 AM

ER Traders! : Remember my CNBC notes from last week at that aggressive PUT BUYING at previously noted strikes.

What took place today? (an ER trader would be well served to at least be following it, have an idea of where the OI is at) Then should VIX/VXN "not make sense" (perhaps falling from PUT SELLING after this move lower) then a trader might have an addition clue as to what they should be doing at/near a pre-defined level of support/resistance.

Remember ... it is a belief among some traders that INSTITUTIONS like to SELL HIGH premiums/volatility, and BUY LOW premiums/volatility.

Jeff Bailey : 4/12/2006 12:11:11 AM

YM / ER 15-minute interval charts, extended session turned on, with tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels and WEEKLY/MONTHLY at this Link ... Note: In extended session we/computers have NO VIX/VXN or TRIN/TRINQ.

I see four (4) levels of ER resistance at the 753 area. At the time of this writing, ER has not been able to get back above WEEKLY S2 (746.70). YM has not been able to get above tomorrow's DAILY Pivot.

At the same time, I see three (3) levels of YM support at the 11,125 level.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 11:42:13 PM

ER / YM DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot levels for tomorrow at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/11/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 9:39:57 PM

EIA Weekly Inventory (Preview) assuming no week-to-week change in Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Inventory at this Link ... 1 Month is equivalent to 20-days. Year Ago levels, or change really seems to grab the energy trader's attention as they position around various "risk factors" like weather and geopolitical events.

Looking at a chart of May Crude (cl06k) $68.87, I would note that on 02/16/06, it would have made a more recent relative low at roughly $61.00.

Here's the EIA data that was reported that day, for the week ended 02/10/06 Link

One thing I've been noting in my mind (I haven't posted it here) is that high 9% or 10% Year Ago change seems to be a "max build" for crude oil.

I need to check a high inflection points (not a hurricane unless planning a hedge for a repeat of last year), but I'm wondering if the MARKET hasn't "bid up oil price" as it builds the inventory to a level that reaches the high 9%-10% level.

Looking again at the May Crude (cl05k) futures chart, I see it also reached a relative high on 02/01/06 (darned close to where it trades tonight) before it fell to $61.00 by 02/15/06. Here is the EIA data reported on 02/01/06 for the report week of 01/27/06 Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 9:02:05 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

EIA Weekly Inventory data tomorrow morning. I haven't been able to "keep up" on the crack spread measures and have pushed them back with VLO and SUN bull trades closed. However, note the relative strength difference between Unleaded/Crude and Heat Oil/Crude. Then the relative strength of VLO vs. SUN.

Heating Oil is the primary commodity future for "distillates."

It was tough for any stock to trade in positive ground today. ICE probably gets some short-covering bid and perhaps some lift from NASDAQ partial ownership of London Stock Exchange. ICE is the main energy futures exchange for Europe.

Last week's Capacity data showed a "surprising increase" (in my opinion, based on past observation) in Refinery Operable Capacity (+207,000 barrels per day) and at the time I even said in the MM that Unleaded might come under some pressure based on that info. That was NOT the case the past 5-days.

Depending on my having a Futures trade PROFILED here in the MM, I may not be able to get my EIA table posted. Either that or be able to sound a target/stop al_rt for a YM trade.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 8:33:57 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 7:51:45 PM

ER / YM montage with their respective WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

This is something I noted at 03:22:40, 03:24:33 and 03:52:56 that YM and ER traders might want to pick up on for some spatial reference.

Sorry for the "squished" charts, but perhaps we can see where the ER got its support from.

While futures traders count point moves to assess risk/reward, note the PERCENTAGE difference between the ER and YM.

The ONLY thing these two futures contracts have in common is that they're index futures contracts.

Jane's correct. The ER seems to trade "wild" some days.

On 04/04/06 at 08:49:28 and 10:34:22, I made note of CNBC mentioning some unusual Put Buying that day. Good observation as futures and options can be joined together at the hip. TRIN/TRINQ and VIX/VXN/VXO don't always move in tandem on an intra-day basis, but together, they eventually "make sense."

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 6:56:02 PM

Remember! TRIN gets reset to 1.00 for tomorrow.

Index Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Let's start with TRIN and VIX.

There's the correlation for TRIN at DAILY R2/WEEKLY R1 (QCharts' WEEKLY R1 is even closer at 2.09). That's some hefty "bear gas" to get there and a reading that high would be some -1,000 tick type of readings. Right?

Ah Jane! Your VIX. Getting some "fear" and put buyers/call sellers starting to outnumber put sellers/call buyers as VIX gets trade at MONTHLY R1 and WEEKLY R1, while indices get trade at WEEKLY S1. Aha! Downside risk assessment from VIX at MONTHLY R1 would "equate" to STOCK INDEX downside potential to MONTHLY S1.

MONTHLY S1? ... Yes! I see OEX (light tan) MONTHLY S1 and DAILY S2 pretty darned close. Hey.... I can see a tie with TRIN at DAILY R2 if OEX at DAILY S2.

TRIN Actually, yesterday's inability to reach 1.00 and today's action. Yep, pressure. Pressure built, unwound and unwound again today (to the downside). See the DAILY Pivot and WEEKLY Pivot correlation? Yes! To get BELOW 1.00, you got to get below 1.17/1.20. "Bear gas" or sell-side pressure above 1.00, even more above DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot and each level higher. Yes, you've got it, or you're starting to get the feel for TRIN.

VIX has a "support correlation" at WEEKLY R1 and DAILY Pivot. If you're a VIX only trader and it is your primary indicator for where the markets are headed, that's a "reversal al_rt" point for sure.

Bear Gas (defined) : TRIN above 1.00 is like having the car in reverse. How high above 1.00 TRIN goes is the amount of "sell side" pressure applied to the gas pedal. VIX is your "clutch." If you've ever driven a car/truck with a standard transmission, you KNOW you can have the GAS pedal pushed all the way to the floor, but if your VIX (your clutch) is only partially pressed to engage, the car/truck your driving may not be moving very fast.

Bull Gas (defined) : TRIN below 1.00 is "bull gas" and similar to having the car/truck in 1st gear. Each level LOWER is more "buy side" pressure applied. VIX lower is like letting the clutch out. Again, if the clutch is only partially applied, the car may not be moving very fast, or have much power applied to the wheels!

Hey ... did anyone notice a couple of changes in the Dow 30 Components DnTickVol/UpTickVol readings from my 10:43:38 post and 03:33:36 post? YM flipped a bit by the close to a "bull bias", while cash DIA stayed "bearish bias." Just noting it here as we get ready to look at the INDU/DIA in its pivot matrix.

INDY/DIA DAILY R1 correlates nicely with WEEKLY Pivot. Where do YOU thin TRIN, or VIX "should be" if that correlation is tested. Heee, heee, heee... if TRIN or VIX "isn't working," and a great example of why they shouldn't be used for trading, then be al_rt, know where to look for CLUES as to what is going on. They're working as they always have.

Not an "exact correlation" in INDU/DIA DAILY S2/WEEKLY S2, but a TRIN correlation at DAILY R2/WEEKLY R1 gives a bear a target.

OEX now, to get to the DAILY S2/MONTHLY S1 correlation, you got to get below DAILY S1/WEEKLY S2. Right?

If looking to buy long the INDU/DIA or even the YM, know where the OEX is at tomorrow.

Same type of DAILY S1/WEEKLY S1 correlation for the SOX and BIX. See how they might be viewed as "not as weak" in the WEEKLY Pivot Matrix? Neither has yet to see trade at WEEKLY S1.

Dollar Index (dx00y) ... so tough on a day-to-day basis to get the feel for how dollar action is impacting stock indices. Today's (Tuesday) action (see 05:00:05 review) did have dx00y and stocks moving in unison. DAILY Pivot/WEEKLY Pivot resistance correlation.

Jane noted tomorrow morning's 08:30 AM Feb Trade Deficit release. Let's be al_ert out there!

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 5:23:26 PM

Might look for an overnight YM short with a target still lower to DAILY S2/MONTHLY S2 (correlation for INDU/DIA)

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 5:22:20 PM

Jane! You'll like this too (I think)

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 5:19:51 PM

Yaha! ... check this out. Possible reversal day tomorrow.

Thought out loud at 04:07:18 and see potential in the matrix.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 5:00:05 PM

Pivot Matrix Review (follow up to Friday's homework) at this Link ... For the DAILY, I highlight in BLUE.

For TODAY'S trade in WEEKLY/MONTHLY, I highlighted in YELLOW and left previosly traded WEEKLY/MONTHLY in BLUE.

For the stock indices, it was "pop and drop." Neither the TRIN, or VIX could trade their DAILY S1s, then ramped well above DAILY R2s.

Keep this action in mind. For a "reversal day," we might well look for an opposite, where TRIN/VIX don't get their DAILY R1, then things get unwound to the upside for the majors.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 4:24:46 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 4:20:22 PM

Tomorrow we have the 8:30a.m. Feb. Trade Deficit

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 4:13:10 PM

Fed's Stern (comments) ... Fed has achieved price stability

U.S. current account deficit is a global issue

U.S. economy is many things but not fragile

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 4:07:18 PM

Yes ... so much going on there (2000 stocks!)

Interesting look of the ER and YM with their pivot retracement levels.

Lower "unison" might well be YM at WEEKLY S2, ER at its MONTHLY 61.8.

TRIN 1.36 ... session high was 1.57 and not even close to its WEEKLY R1.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 3:59:51 PM

Jeff I love trading ER but it can be a wild ride sometimes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:59:08 PM

That's a good idea. ER it is. I finally found the QCharts symbol that trader's had been interested in. Bugger trades just as nice as the YM with some pivot retracement work.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 3:58:22 PM

AD volume continues to make new daily lows so not much upside here.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 3:56:03 PM

On the futures side we decided to use just ER because of all the different symbols for this little puppy.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 3:54:38 PM

By the way for those of you who use Tradestation the Russell 2000 emini symbol is ER2 and for those of you who use Esignal it is AB.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:54:14 PM

Flip the page on your StockTrader's Almanac and there are some "bull heads" for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 3:53:46 PM

This has been one of those days when things were very very clear. AD line and volume bearish and making new lows. VIX confirming each and every new low ES made and TRIN rising to a high of 1.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:52:56 PM

Might want to monitor the e-mini Russell (QCHARTS: mr06m) at its MONTHLY 61.8%

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:51:47 PM

Good eye Jane! ... ym 11,124

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:46:39 PM

ICE $56.59 +3.72% ... best levels of the session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:33:36 PM

Dow 30 (update) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:24:33 PM

mr06m 745.10 ... lost its WEEKLY S2. Monthly 61.8% at 741.06 (say 741.10).

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:22:49 PM

ym06m 11,102 (-106) ... trades MONTHLY 61.8% here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:17:22 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 3:13:04 PM

TRIN 1.32

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:04:58 PM

May Unleaded (hu06k) ... bullish vertical count of $2.33 still in play. Would currently take a trade at $1.95 to negate.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 3:03:49 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 2:46:25 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,286.57

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 2:44:23 PM

Russell e-mini (mr06m) has been kissing WEEKLY S2 (746.70) since 12:00 PM EDT.

Dow mini (ym06m) has been WEEKLY R1. Tries to reclaim DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 2:40:34 PM

Fed's Fisher (comments) ... US Econ Seeing 'Pretty Strong Demand'

Fed Will Keep Inflation Pressures In Check

Consumer Demand Seeing Healthy Growth

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 2:33:44 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $76.19 -2.45% Link ... Has moved into its "patent settlement gap" and tests bullish support trend.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 2:15:56 PM

I see AD volume making new daily lows so I don't think we have much upside here. Unfortunately this sideways move is not giving us much downside either. We remain in small trading zone that is quite difficult to trade.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 2:07:29 PM

PAYPAL CUSTOMER RECORDS SOUGHT DJ- Justice Department asks the eBay business to turn over some customer records as part of an ongoing tax-evasion probe of U.S. taxpayers using credit cards issued by offshore banks. The government has made similar requests of MasterCard and Visa.

EBAY $38.39 +0.78% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 2:05:19 PM

IRAN SUCCESSFULLY ENRICHES URANIUM DJ- Iran's president says his country has successfully enriched uranium for the first time, a landmark in its quest to develop nuclear fuel. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also insists his country doesn't aim to develop nuclear weapons.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 2:02:52 PM

NASDAQ BUYS 15% OF LSE DJ- Nasdaq Stock Market makes "strategic purchase" of London Stock Exchange stake two weeks after it withdrew a takeover proposal that was rejected by the LSE. Analyst says the buy makes another tie-up more difficult for LSE.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 1:32:44 PM

TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 1:32:10 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,287.98

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 1:26:18 PM

Got "zapped" by a power surge and had to reboot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 1:25:52 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 1:10:16 PM

ICE $56.31 +3.20% ... probes DAILY R2 ($56.32)

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 1:05:39 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 1:00:49 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,287.80

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 12:58:43 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 12:52:56 PM

TRINQ 1.44 -7.09% ... slips red. DAILY Pivot at 1.31. Did peg DAILY R2 of 2.30.

WEEKLY Pivot lower at 1.15.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 12:50:37 PM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 12:42:30 PM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+8.52 and set for program selling at $+6.33.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 today is $7.49.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 12:42:30 PM

The sideways scenario is playing out now and could go on for the rest of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 12:35:38 PM

CBOT (BOT) $121.14 -0.38% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 12:34:24 PM

DJ Headline: CBOT Silver Volume Exceeds 4,000 Contracts to Set Record

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 12:22:11 PM

Ciena (CIEN) $4.20 -5.82% ... weakness may be attributed by comments out of Banc of America Securities. The broker recently issued a "sell" rating on the stock, referring to the shares as one of its "least favorites" in a note sent to clients today.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 12:11:53 PM

TICKS -800

Tab Gilles : 4/11/2006 12:08:14 PM

TLT Looks interesting when it gets to $84 level. Keep on radar screen. Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 12:05:06 PM

TICKS -800

Tab Gilles : 4/11/2006 12:00:55 PM

Merck (MRK) Merck broke below 10-week ema, looks like it wants to pullback to it's 40-week ema. Link

Oct 2006 35.0000 put looks interesting here. Link Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 11:58:37 AM

As long as the AD line is -1380 and AD volume is making new daily lows I would not be long here. I will need to see some sort of confirmation that this bottom will hold and I am just not seeing it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 11:52:57 AM

iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) $73.99 -1.25% ...

e-mini Russell (mr06m) 750 -1.14% ... Looks like that "big bet" from 04/04/06 MM (08:49:28) Link paid off.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 11:43:02 AM

ICE $55.58 +1.86% ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/11/2006 11:33:40 AM

EIA see $2.62 gasoline this summer Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 11:30:12 AM

These are still quite bearish so I would not be attempting any long positions quite yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 11:23:35 AM

ICE $55.50 +1.72% ... I do like a "buy bounce write" for an April expiration. However, I'll be out of the office most of next week.

Buy the underlying, then look to write an April $60 Call should the stock approach $58.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 11:19:13 AM

JDSU $3.54 -5.85% and CIEN $4.11 -7.62% ... #1 and #2 most actives.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 11:17:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 11:02:40 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 10:58:28 AM

Seeing more evidence now that a bottom is forming.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 10:51:34 AM

Nothing here to tell me a bottom is in. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:46:22 AM

VIX alert 12.78 ... edges above WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:43:38 AM

Dow 30 Components found at this Link ... AA jumps from #24 to #20 weighting.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 10:39:32 AM

MRK is only down $0.08 on the news.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 10:38:57 AM

Dateline WSJ Merck was ordered to pay $9 million in punitive damages to a man who had a heart attack while taking Vioxx. The verdict came after a jury in New Jersey concluded that the drug maker willfully and wantonly misled regulators about its troubled painkiller.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 10:35:07 AM

The TRIN has taken a huge spike upwards and is now following the VIX. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:31:42 AM

Marvell Technology (MRVL) $56.54 -3.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:28:47 AM

MICRON (MU) 2Q PROFIT JUMPS, BUT REVENUE FALLS DJ- Shares add 1.27% at $15.10 a day after the computer-memory maker's net income soars to $193.2 million, or 27c a share. Revenue slips 6% to $1.23 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:27:34 AM

Shoot ... missed a decent short in the YM

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:26:09 AM

IBM $81.12 -1.19% ... probes WEEKLY S2 ($81.11)

ym06m 11,156

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:24:30 AM

US DECLINES TO PURSUE CHARGES AGAINST IBM DJ- U.S. Justice Department declines to pursue criminal and civil charges against International Business Machines that it misused the Treasury Department's official seal, according to a report released by the department's inspector general.

IBM $81.20 -1.10% (Dow heavyweight)

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 10:23:50 AM

WE certainly have the clarity I was talking about earlier and it is very clear the bears are winning again. TICK -800 Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 10:22:00 AM

Dateline WSJ So far, there's no announcements pending of copper, platinum or zinc exchange-traded funds, but clearly, investor speculation has been influential in the rally in metals and other commodities. The March survey from the Institute for Supply Management showed no commodities to be in short supply, unlike previous months. Yet, the following metals were trading at 98% or more of their 12-month high as of yesterday, according to Citigroup: tin, zinc, gold, platinum, and copper. (Citigroup doesn't track silver, but throw that in as well.) Ann Davis writes in this morning's Wall Street Journal that "big institutions and everyday investors around the globe are adding commodities to their portfolios, hoping the bull market in natural resources will continue." Investment demand for gold rose by 26% in 2005, compared with a meager 5% rise in consumption, according to the World Gold Council.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:18:28 AM

OIL DEMAND SET TO RISE IN 2ND HALF DJ- Global oil demand is expected to rise sharply in the second half of the year, with a less-pronounced increase in U.S. petroleum use, a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration says.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:17:44 AM

DR HORTON 2Q SALES RISE 10% TO $4.4B DJ- Homebuilder says net sales orders increase 10% to 15,771 homes, or around $4.4 billion, its highest ever quarterly figure. D.R. Horton had positive sales growth in every region.

DHI $34.21 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:15:35 AM

GM TO SELL ISUZU STAKE FOR $300M DJ- General Motors is selling its 7.9% stake in Japan's Isuzu as it continues efforts to raise cash for restructuring. GM sold most of its holdings in Suzuki in March and unloaded its entire stake in Fuji Heavy last year.

GM $19.47 +0.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:11:25 AM

Verdict Reached In Punitive Damages Phase Of Vioxx Trial DJ- A jury has reached a verdict Tuesday morning in the punitive-damages phase of the latest Merck & Co. (MRK) Vioxx trial.

The jury is expected to enter the courtroom shortly to announce its decision. It began deliberating Monday afternoon to decide whether to award punitive damages to a 77-year-old man who had a heart attack after taking the painkiller Vioxx for four years. Last week, the jury awarded $4.5 million in combined compensatory damages to the man, John McDarby, and his wife.

In the punitive phase, the jury was to determine whether Merck misled the Food and Drug Administration regarding the heart risk of the painkiller Vioxx.

MRK $34.91 +1.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:09:32 AM

NAR Expects Housing Prices to Cool in 2006 DJ - The housing market is expected to level out in 2006, with sales of existing and new homes expected to cool in the coming quarters, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing home sales are expected to fall 6%, to 6.65 million in 2006 compared with 7.08 million in 2005, the NAR said Tuesday. And demand for new homes is expected to fall off as well, with sales forecast to fall 10.9%, to 1.14 million this year, compared with a record 1.28 million last year.

But based on those projections for 2006, both the new home and existing home sectors would see their third-best year, following the booming markets of 2005 and 2004, the trade group said.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 10:02:45 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 10:00:53 AM

The bears may have had control earlier but they certainly do not have it now. AD line continues to make new daily lows and has now fallen to -221 but the AD volume remains above 0 and is not confirming the AD line - yet. The VIX is making new daily highs confirming ES's new daily lows. Things are getting clearer now.

Tab Gilles : 4/11/2006 10:00:04 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Daily chart/ Fibonacci Retracements and Inverse H&S. Link

MUR $52.45 +$0.74

OBYAI- Jan $45 '07 LEAP Call Bid $10.60 / Ask $10.90

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 9:53:27 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 9:48:50 AM

Ad line is now making new daily lows but the AD volume is still on the rise so once again we have an unclear picture. However, I expect it will clear up after 10:00 and we will get a handle on which side really has the reins.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 9:37:46 AM

VIX is in the lower quadrant of its previous day range as is the TRIN so these two would have to be put in the bullish column as well.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 9:35:56 AM

AD line is +464 and AD volume is above 0 and rising. The bulls have the reins this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2006 9:24:37 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has not updated their program trading levels at this time.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 9:06:12 AM

Dateline WSJ Pump prices for gasoline are rising with the temperature, and motorists should expect little relief during this summer's heavy driving period, the government reported Tuesday.

The Energy Department's new seasonal outlook projects the price for regular grade gasoline this summer will average $2.62 a gallon, 25 cents higher than last summer, barring any unexpected supply disruptions.

Gasoline prices have soared since February. Last week motorists paid on average $2.68 a gallon nationwide for regular, an 18-cent increase in two weeks and 40 cents higher than the national average a year ago. AAA's daily Fuel Gauge Report has the current average at $2.686 a gallon. Growing demand, high crude oil costs, requirements for low-sulfur gasoline and greater demand for corn-based ethanol as an additive all "are expected to keep consumer prices for motor fuels ... high in 2006," said the report by the department's Energy Information Administration.

The high prices aren't expected to damp demand during the April-September heavy driving season. Motorists are expected to use an average 9.4 million barrels of gasoline a day, or 1.5% more than last summer, according to the Energy Department agency.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2006 9:05:01 AM

Dateline WSJ A stampede of mainstream investors into commodities is fueling gold's rally toward $600 an ounce and also could be driving up prices for oil and other raw materials.

In a phenomenon that could still intensify, big institutions and everyday investors around the globe are adding commodities to their portfolios, hoping the bull market in natural resources will continue. Many of the newcomers are investors who use index-based strategies to, in effect, buy and hold in a field they previously found too complex and risky.

The wider embrace of commodities is prompting talk of a new "use" for already scarce raw materials: investor demand. While some investors in Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere are hoarding gold and other precious metals, most commodities plays are financial bets, based on trading futures contracts, with nothing physically changing hands. Prices in the futures markets influence how much commodities cost in the so-called spot markets, where supplies do change hands.

Institutional money managers have between $100 billion and $120 billion in commodities, at least double the amount three years ago and up from $6 billion in 1999, says Barclays Capital, the securities unit of Barclays PLC. Roughly $80 billion is sitting in popular market-tracking investments, including those reflecting the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, up 75% since the start of 2004. The remainder, Barclays estimates, is in other structured derivatives products linked to metals, oil and grains.

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