Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2006 2:34:22 AM

Markets are closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/14/2006 2:34:42 AM

Thursday's Closing Internals found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/13/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 7:40:26 PM

So, what did YOU think TRIN/VIX told you about today? You're ready to throw TRIN and VIX out the window aren't you? Don't!

Jane and I obviously have different opinions on how to use these indicators, or what they are saying.

I sent Jane a couple of e-mails yesterday, and she responded.

I have my convictions, and they stand. Jane has her convictions, and I'm trying to sway her to mine! (grin) I really believe that a trader has to put them WITHIN a range, then have some type of level, within the range to monitor. For TRIN (your gas pedal) 0.79 to 0.41 would have been analogous to "cruise control" to "pedal to the metal" as if trying to pass that 18-wheeler on the highway as your facing some oncoming traffic! Review my YM trades from today. The first bull trade worked as planned. The second bull trade (from an almost identical PRICE) fizzed. It wasn't VIX's fault, it wasn't TRIN's fault. I "knew" I'd get my target (or increase my odds of getting there) if I got more gas to 0.62.

Look at the Closing Market Watch below. Yes! It sure looks like VIX action should have seen a MUCH MORE BULLISH response for the SPY/SPX. TRIN? Yes, on the surface, below 1.00 is bullish gas! Just like yesterday perhaps.

NOW THE FINAL EXAM ... Have you been doing your evening homework that we started last week?

Here's how everything in my pivot matrix traded again today Link

Do you see where my thoughts about TRIN (the gas pedal of a car) and VIX (the clutch that engages transmission) come into play RESPECTIVE to the PIVOT?

Good gravy yes! VIX "jumped up" at the open, but you see where it stopped? Almost as if the market was DETERMINED it was going to SELL PREMIUM? VIX falls to DAILY S2. Put this into perspective though as it relates to the RANGE. Still, the CLUTCH was being let out.

Now look at TRIN. This is your gas pedal. Wonderful that 1.00 is DAILY R1. OK, bear gas early as TRIN "pops" up to DAILY R2/WEEKLY Pivot, but then bear gas begins to evaporate as the session progresses. It wasn't until about 10:05 AM EDT that TRIN quites flopping either side of 1.00, and stays below.

And it is a day like today, when I can see Jane's point of how "TRIN doesn't work." But I can make my point that there just wasn't enough bull gas RELATIVE to the DAILY Pivot to fueld the engine and drive those wheels?

Do you see how TRIN went as low as 0.69 (Market Watch), but there just wasn't enough GAS, even though the clutch was let out, to POWER the majors through some levels?

I can ALMOST GUARANTEE YOU that if we had gotten the VIX action we got today, with a TRIN at DAILY S2, bulls would be a whoop'n and a holler'n! VIX might have even gotten back down to 11.87 and its WEEKLY Pivot and sentiment turned more bullish! "Sell my puts, sell my puts... oh please get me out!"

Look at the SPX, as it can speak to an e-mini S&P futures trader. Going into the day, you're looking at a S2-R2 range of 8.96, say 9.0 point swing range. And by gosh, that's about the range the SPX traded. SPX is THE BEST index to use with the VIX. The VIX measures the put/call activity of the S&P 500. That is as "pure" as I can show in my matrix as it is currently designed.

Jane and my discussion the last several days did have me adding TRINQ to the U.S. Market Watch. I'm so, so, so adamant that an index trader that is trading an index with NASDAQ/NYSE stocks in it, that you can get scorched if you're only looking at what the a/d/volume is doing for the NYSE and TRIN.

I have great issue with using VIX as an indicator for the RUT, as their isn't one bit of commonality there. Jane NEVER said there was either.

But I understand, and agree with how VIX can be used. Isn't VIX thought of as an indicator of bullishness/bearishness? Again, I'd at least throw in the VXN to get some NASDAQ flavor.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 6:31:16 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 6:21:16 PM

Oh #2 : This week I started posting a "portfolio" of the OI Newsletter Plays. Marc mentioned last week that things might be getting even better at QCharts since they were acquired.

I'm just one voice, but I think it would be GREAT if QCharts would allow a trader to DISPLAY in their portfolio tracker, the FIELDS for DAILY and/or WEEKLY Pivot Levels.

I just don't have the time to really try and screen for individual stock plays, other than snooping around and reviewing "old notes" from the past.

The OI Newsletter Play list allows me (and you) some bull/bear trade ideas, where the play picker is more focused on individual stocks.

I just think it would be great to be able to catch a stock that is trading a potential level of support/resistance and trade it here in the MM. Even if I/you see the day's low was right at WEEKLY Pivot, or S1, R1, but we've been day trading the YM, if we could observe that correlation in a snapshot at some point in the day, I think that would be helpful.

Then ... say you're long/call or short/put one of the plays from a couple of days prior, it has made a nice move and is nearing the profiled target, but YOU see it is trading a potentially important level of computerized support/resistance and want to protect your gain before the evening newletter tells you to do so.

If QCharts had a feature that allowed me to display the WEEKLY Pivots, say Monday morning, then we'd some levels the rest of the week to tie in with the play picker's thoughts/observations.

Well, if YOU think it would be a useful feature to be able to display the various pivot levels for a stock you're interested in, within the portfolio feature of QCharts, please let them know.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 5:53:35 PM

Oh! ... I've been using a YM settlement for my DAILY Pivot Levels calculation. Keene and QCHarts are using the CLOSE.

Either is fine in my opinion.

I think I'll switch to the close so we're all on the same page. If a settlement is more/less than 10-15 points from the close, then I'll have to make a note. Maybe trade just 1,000 contracts instead of 10,000 on those days. (grin)

The Net gain/loss displayed in my QCharts and daily snapshot bar (O, H, L, T, N, %) is based on the prior day's settlement. Same with the CBOT itself.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 5:21:30 PM

YM intra-day review (5-minute intervals) at this Link

On my second long play, I missed the better entry point (dip under DAILY Pivot, then strength above). At 11,190 it was either get long for another run like first trade, or do nothing. Russell and observation from Tuesday had me pushing to the long side.

I can't say that I was "stupid" by going long at 11,190. But I do understand how the under/above daily pivot move really reduces the bull risk for a long entry, to a LEVEL were a stop would be placed.

I was asking Jane for some -1000 tick updates today. The past couple of weeks, when I've seen those come at correlative levels, they tend to be inflections points.

You do have to think that today's +1000 tick was the "retail trader," probably short, that ran for cover on the break above the morning and intra-day high. Only a computer that has no fear could sell 11,225.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 4:33:59 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity ... Day traded long the YM at 11,187 and sold at target of 11,219 (+32 pts, or $+160/contract)

Came back for another long at 11,190 (missed better entry on dip under, then move back above DAILY Pivot) and was stopped at 11,165 (-25 pts, or $-125/contract)

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 4:17:17 PM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 4:08:15 PM

YM 11,178 (unch) ... do I hear 11,175

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 4:07:41 PM

Sell Program Premium ... DIA $111.32 , SPY $128.82

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 4:07:09 PM

Have a safe and enjoyable 3-day weekend everyone!

Drake and I are off to Las Animas after we visit the "Tax Lady" one more time this evening.

Turkey's are-a-gobbling and spring is in the air.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 4:01:56 PM

YM 11,180 ... I see no reason to carry a long/short over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:57:22 PM

FMDAY ... Company press release Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:56:20 PM

Futurmedia Public Ltd. (FMDAY) $0.31 +34.78% ... #3 most active.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:52:45 PM

SPY 128.88 ... back to unchanged.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:50:16 PM

YM 11,180 ... the mighty large caps mount a late session charge.

Hmmmm... just the opposite of yesterday's final minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:43:18 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $6.87 +0.43% ... traded its entire daily range in the first 30-minutes of trade.

Daily high of $7.07 was a penny better than DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:40:47 PM

IWM $74.51

DIA $111.27

SPY $128.79

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:39:05 PM

RUT 750.26 +0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:38:12 PM

YM 11,172 ... down just 5. Back to DAILY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 3:35:41 PM

Jeff my short just ran out of gas. I am out at B/E.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:35:37 PM

I should say ... what kind of gas is the MARKET using. It was running the good stuff this morning. Volume measures at the NYSE and NASDAQ almost identical to yesterday at the 03:00 mark.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:30:39 PM

Jane ... what kind of gas are you using? Looks/feels like 50 octane.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:29:11 PM

RUT 750.13 +0.31% ... a/d 957:723

TRIN 0.72

TRINQ 0.48

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:27:09 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:23:03 PM

Murphy (MUR) $51.56 +1.17% ... refuses, I mean refuses to trade Tab's $50.00 stop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:12:24 PM

YM 11,154

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:11:59 PM

RUT 749.45 +0.22% ... whack, ck, ck, ck

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:10:23 PM

RUT.X with its WEEKLY Pivot retracement and QCharts' DAILY pivot levels at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 3:03:07 PM

03:00 Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:59:24 PM

Of the 2000 stocks in the RUT.X 750.63 +0.38%, I'm not sure what percentage trades with options.

IWM and its option chain about the only thing I know of to get a feel for "max pain"

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:57:21 PM

See ... even if Jane had profiled a short on the ER, as the YM moved back under DAILY Pivot, I don't consider that action as a "in your face Jeff."

Pick up on the action while it lasts. Make some money or hedge my stupidity.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 2:56:55 PM

TICK range so far today is 1131 to -846.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 2:55:51 PM

Jeff my ER system is now short so if you are long YM I sure am.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:55:33 PM

YM / ER ... You see "what went wrong" with the second YM long?

ER trader has only had to "fade Jeff when he's wrong on the YM" and play the ER to follow.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 2:52:56 PM

These remain quite bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:52:52 PM

Looking for -1000 Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:51:32 PM

Jane got me covered today with an ER hedge?

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 2:51:27 PM

TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:50:37 PM

TRIN 0.80

VIX 12.47

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:49:54 PM

YM long stop alert 11,165

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:49:38 PM

YM 11,167 ... get back above that DAILY pivot! The most important hour of the trading day is just ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:46:13 PM

Bet the Russell is fading.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:45:57 PM

YM 11,169

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:45:28 PM

Nope ... can't really find a 01:00-01:05 spike in the SPX options either. Can really see some "quarterly" action though with some June contracts getting bulk trade spikes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:41:33 PM

SPX 1,275 calls had been steadily active since 11:40-12:30. QCharts showing 6,064 traded (#2 with the April 1275 puts. For the 1275 calls DnTick 524 and upTick 777

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:38:55 PM

Good gravy ... now checking the SPX chain. Check out the April 1275 Call volume.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:34:02 PM

SPY chain check ... nope... as I sort by volume in the chain, then begin clicking each contract (with volume turned on for my chart) I only see Apr $130 Put with a volume spike (1,000) at 01:00-01:05 time interval.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:28:32 PM

Let me look at an SPY chain real quick. Helpful to look at an SPX chain too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:27:45 PM

The "jump" in the VIX gives great hint that it was probably some significan put buy or call sell.

Hmmm... with my ICE (buy, bounce, write/sell call) I've got to be thinking a call seller to have the VIX spiking up.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:25:48 PM

Did trader tie in the "jump" in the VIX to DAILY S1 with the afternoon lows of 01:05-01:10.

Some type of option-related trade took place.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:22:13 PM

OK ... thank you.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 2:17:42 PM

Jeff I have not had any -1000 TICKS today. (1:58 post)

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:16:46 PM

YM 11,183

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:16:30 PM

C'mon.... give it some more bull gas. TRIN 0.81 ... still DAILY Pivot.

Got the clutch out VIX 12.38

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:11:41 PM

Figure ER is around its DR2 also.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:11:08 PM

RUT.X ... 752.50 ... DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:09:57 PM

Trin 0.73

VIX 12.35

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:08:55 PM

YM long 11,190, stop goes 11,165, target 11,219

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 2:07:34 PM

YM long entry alert 11,190 here,

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:58:44 PM

Say ... around 01:05-01:10?

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:58:15 PM

Jane ... have you seen any -1000 ticks in the last hour?

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:57:44 PM

VIX 12.35

TRIN 0.78

Where've they been

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:57:13 PM

Get caught up again ....

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:55:56 PM

Arrrrrgh ..... YM 11,187 ... maybe get another shot at a long

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:53:33 PM

EAI Weekly Nat. Gas Inventory Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:52:18 PM

Good heavens ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:51:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 1:51:02 PM

TICKS +800 and the bears get trashed again.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:42:19 PM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 1:41:06 PM

AD line and volume are pretty well neutral now but they are heading downwards. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:37:49 PM

ICE Option Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:32:39 PM

ICE ... 60-minute interval chart from Tuesday at this Link

ICE $58.45 ... Daily Pivot= $56.68, R1 58.81, R2 $60.00 (on the nose).

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:25:20 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:22:31 PM

ICE (alert) $58.48 +1.45% ... gets WEEKLY Pivot. Again... won't be here from Tuesday-Friday of next week, but if you played the "buy, bounce and write $60 Call), then write the call here. Premiums are "jacked" and will lose an additional day of premium with markets closed tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:10:17 PM

ER ... if short from DAILY R2 (you saw the YM action), you're eyeballing the YM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:08:48 PM

YM 11,170 ... now eyeballing ER at DAILY R1. MONTHLY Pivot just below.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 1:03:02 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 12:59:32 PM

YM 11,178 ... would be covering a short.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 12:53:28 PM

SPY $128.84 -0.03% ... slips back under DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 12:51:31 PM

TRIN 0.85

VIX 12.41

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 12:51:03 PM

YM 11,187 ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 12:29:35 PM

Let's see ... yesterday I was short the YM twice. Each time I "knew" I needed a TRIN above 1.00 for my break. Never got it and paid the price.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 12:28:18 PM

YM 11,187

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 12:28:03 PM

TRIN 0.84 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 12:22:05 PM

YM / ER same type of pivot action/correlation as we saw yesterday.

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2006 11:58:55 AM

20+Year Treasury Bond Fund TLT That $84 level as I pointed out Tuesday (12:08PM post) is getting closer. Note the selling volume on the weekly chart. Link

Daily chart testing bottom of channel and former resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 11:56:41 AM

Notice how the VIX and TRIN are printing in unison today. This is when I watch the TRIN. Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 11:54:06 AM

These are improving but still not bullish by any means. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 11:42:23 AM

TRIN 0.89

TRINQ 0.51

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 11:36:13 AM

YM 11,200 ... back at MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 11:33:55 AM

RUT 751.35 +0.47% ... a/d 1095:568

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 11:31:50 AM

Oh my! ER kissed WEEKLY S2 just before 10:00, has ramped above MONTHLY Pivot!

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 11:29:52 AM

Jeff please remind me where you get that AD line for RUT.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 11:29:32 AM

Good gravy Jane! You see the a/d line on your Russell 2000?

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 11:26:39 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link ... Check out where TRIN/VIX are/were relative to DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot Levels.

Jane's mixed feelings, observations, will become very clear.

Think "gas" and "clutch"

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 11:20:11 AM

VIX confirms ES's new daily high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 11:11:35 AM

YM 11,226 ...

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 11:08:24 AM

TRIN to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 11:06:48 AM

I am certainly not in the grove today and my name is not even Stella. But once again I play the probabilities and with the ADs as bearish as they are the probabilities that a long position would work was less than 50% IMHO.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 11:04:30 AM

Neither AD volume nor the AD line got above 0 in that last little rally. This should be very worrisome to the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 11:03:03 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:58:30 AM

Yes... +1000 ticks at what could be an inflection high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:55:37 AM

YM target alert 11,219 ... boooo ya!

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:53:57 AM

YM 11,203 ... get your finger on the button.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 10:52:37 AM

VIX to new daily lows confirms ES's new daily highs. Needless to say these are bullish.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 10:50:52 AM

TICKS +1000 and another buy program gets the shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:50:46 AM

YM ... if it clears 11,205, should get another push to our bull target.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 10:50:20 AM

Jeff yes I do think the VIX at daily lows is bullish but yesterday the ADs were neutral however, today the ADs are quite bearish which pretty well negates the bullish VIX.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:50:02 AM

YM 11,200 ... big level here and MONTHLY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:49:22 AM

YM 11,195

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:49:08 AM

VIX 12.51 ... ooooeee! Check out the action in the DAILY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:48:25 AM

YM 11,190

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:48:08 AM

VIX 12.54

TRIN 0.88

Yesterday Jane thought the VIX at session lows was sure sign "bulls were in control of the session." Let's trade it!

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:45:10 AM

YM Long ... stop goes 11,165, target is 11,219.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:44:09 AM

YM long alert 11,187 here

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 10:40:23 AM

AD volume is now making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 10:40:05 AM

With these two this bearish I will not be taking any long positions, I don't care how many buy programs we get. Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 10:38:03 AM

Hopefully VIX's action today is not an indication of how it will print next week. If so then it may be unuseable and I may have to use the TRIN... if so, then I will never heard the end of it :) Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:34:05 AM

TRIN 0.88 ... did spike to 1.22

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:31:45 AM

If volumes are going to be a light as they were yesterday, I'm looking to try and take advantage with inflection points. Let "them" push them around to the levels.

YM 11,176 ... spiked to 11,212. I've been looking to buy something below DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:27:47 AM

Looking at GOOG and even the INDU components and morning action .... looks very, very, very OP-EX

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:26:52 AM

Google (GOOG) $402.77 -1.51% ... DAILY S2 here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:22:53 AM

IBM $82.45 +2.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:17:54 AM

SPY $128.78 -0.07% ... Most active options Apr $128 Put (3,805), Apr $129 Put (1,931)

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:15:58 AM

VIX 12.61 -1.17% ... somethings up. Rather sharp decline.

Significan put selling/call buying at a specific strike?

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 10:13:24 AM

I don't care what the VIX, the TRIN or the TICKS are telling me, these are still bearish and I am on the sidelines. I will not trade when the internals are so mixed. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:06:36 AM

YM 11,197 ... biiiig ramp from DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:06:08 AM

There Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 10:03:53 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 9:57:56 AM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $6.97 +1.90% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 9:53:19 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 9:46:45 AM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $32.88 -7.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2006 9:45:33 AM

Consolidated Graphics (CGX) $57.00 +7.52% ... first tick.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 9:41:29 AM

AD line is now -1222 and I would not be long here.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 9:41:01 AM

The TRIN is 0.91 but above its previous day high. I can't get a handle on this one either.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 9:40:03 AM

Not sure what is up with the VIX this morning, it just took a huge spike downwards then back to mid range. I think I will ignore the spike but I will need it to settle down before I can use it.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 9:37:38 AM

Little doubt as to who has the reins this morning, AD line is -946 and AD volume below 0 and falling.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 9:26:39 AM

AT 9:45 we have the Mid April Michigan Consumer Sentiment and then at 10:00 Feb. Business Inventories is released.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 9:11:30 AM

Dateline WSJThe New York Stock Exchange faces a dilemma in London.

Should the exchange, owned by NYSE Group Inc., challenge its archrival Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. in pursuit of Europe's biggest stock exchange, or make a different move to further the consolidation of the world's financial markets?

The NYSE's pickle was created by Nasdaq's purchase of a nearly 15% stake in London Stock Exchange PLC earlier this week, which gave the smaller Nasdaq a big say over the London exchange's future and a head start in making any bid.

Both of the U.S.'s two biggest stock markets have made it clear they intend to be players in consolidating exchanges as investors push for easy access to a wider range of markets, including derivatives - and stock exchanges themselves feel pressure from their own shareholders to expand more aggressively.

So far, Nasdaq has stolen a march on the NYSE, first by proposing a bid earlier this year for the London Stock Exchange and then, when the proposal was rebuffed two weeks ago, snapping up a big stake Tuesday.

That 14.99% shareholding makes Nasdaq the largest investor in the LSE, and if John Thain, chief executive of NYSE, harbors any hopes of buying LSE, he's at least temporarily outmaneuvered.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 9:09:29 AM

Dateline WSJThe Labor Department reported Thursday that prices for imported goods declined 0.4% in March, suggesting that cheap products from overseas, outside of oil, continue to act as a restraining force on U.S. inflation. Import prices had fallen 0.5% in February. Petroleum import prices fell 0.7% last month. Still, those prices were up 22.6% in the 12 months since March 2005. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.3% in March, after decreasing 0.6% the previous month.

Also Thursday, initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 313,000 in the week ended April 8, the Labor Department said. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims decreased last week by 1,500 to 307,500. That marks the seventh-straight week the four-week average has been above 300,000 - a threshold below which some observers consider labor markets to be very tight.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2006 9:08:08 AM

Dateline WSJ Retail sales bounced back during March and climbed more than expected as consumer spending picked up for cars, furniture, and building materials.

Retail sales increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Sales were stronger in February than earlier thought, falling a revised 0.8%. Demand was previously seen 1.4% lower.

The median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 0.4% increase in March retail sales, a closely watched gauge of how people in the U.S. spend money.

Consumer spending is a pivotal part of the equation used to figure out how the economy is faring. Spending makes up about two-thirds of gross domestic product.

March auto and parts sales increased by 1.6%, after falling 2.8% in February. Outside the auto sector, all other retail sales rose by 0.4% in March. Economists expected a 0.4% increase. Sales excluding autos fell 0.3% in February.

Gas station sales slipped by 0.1% last month after dropping 1.8% in February. Stripping away sales at gas stations, demand at all other retailers increased last month by 0.7%. Those ex-gas sales dropped 0.7% in February. And excluding autos and gasoline, all other retail sales went 0.4% higher in March. Demand excluding gas and autos fell by 0.1% in February.

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