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OI Technical Staff : 4/18/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 4:25:13 PM

And don't forget Crude Inventories at 10:30.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 4:23:55 PM

Reports out tomorrow
8:30a.m. March Consumer Price Index.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 4:22:37 PM

IBM's net rises 22% to $1.71 billion as profit margins improved in its core service and hardware units. Revenue fell 9.8% to $20.66 billion.
Motorola's income is largely flat from a year earlier as sales rise 23% to $10.01 billion.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 4:02:57 PM

These programs are not only buying equities but commodities as well. Gold is up to 626.10!!!!

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 3:57:07 PM

If the markets are quiet tomorrow and move sideways you know the bulls are just digesting all the gorging they have done today and that is very bullish.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 3:55:02 PM

AD line has hit a high of +2630 a yearly high.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 3:35:15 PM

TICKS +1000. We are seeing a lot of buying here.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 3:11:59 PM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 3:09:25 PM

Doesn't this chart remind you of the Nasdaq in 1999? Link

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 2:45:56 PM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 2:40:24 PM

Dateline WSJ Fed policy-makers thought an end was likely "near" for the rate increases begun in mid-2004, and some had concerns about tightening too much, according to minutes of their March meeting -- the first presided over by Bernanke. Stocks and bonds rallied on the news, with the Dow industrials up about 150 points.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 2:25:44 PM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 2:19:20 PM

Gold has hit a high of 623.80.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 2:07:30 PM

TICKS have hit a high of +1190 so far today and a low of -554 pretty bullish.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 1:51:02 PM

WE have seen a little retracment now but don't be getting any ideas that it will go anywhere. AD volume is still making new daily highs and with an AD line at +1568 shorting this is just plain Jane foolhardy.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 1:38:00 PM

Ain't seein' nuttin' telling we are heading down. We may not see a lot more upside but I surely don't see any signs of the bears, other than the lower high on the DOW charts.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 1:32:41 PM

I just got an email from Linda reminding us all about FOMC minutes that will be released at 2:00. I use the Calendar on the WSJ site and I should know better because it is notoriously wrong. It did not mention anything about these minutes. Thank you so much Linda.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 1:16:43 PM

Macd is not keeping up with price but you see that a lot when the markets have a tajectory like today so I wouldn't be reading too much into it.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 1:12:08 PM

You can almost feel the persist bid under this market today.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 1:00:25 PM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 12:55:12 PM

Notice how nicely IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF, is staying within its regression channel. Link

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 12:42:21 PM

Notice how nicely the VIX is trading in unison to the S&P Futures (ES). Link

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 12:38:18 PM

Dateline WSJ U.S. wholesale prices grew in March at their fastest pace in three months, but excluding food and energy the growth pace slowed.

Meanwhile, home construction fell for the fourth time in six months during March in another sign builders are pulling back as mortgage rates climb and sales soften.

The producer price index for finished goods rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month after an unrevised 1.4% decline in February, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Excluding food and energy costs, the "core" producer price index increased 0.1% in March, its slowest advance since November. February's core increase was unrevised at 0.3%.

For the 12 months ended in March, overall wholesale prices climbed 3.5% on an unadjusted basis, marking the slowest 12-month increase since September 2004. In February the year-over-year climb was 3.7%. The key monthly wholesale price data was somewhat off forecast. With oil prices picking up in March, Wall Street economists had expected the overall PPI to rise 0.4% during the month and the core PPI to rise 0.2%.

The Federal Reserve is closely watching data on inflation and economic growth as it considers how much longer to extend a credit-tightening cycle begun in mid-2004. Many market observers expect the Fed will raise its federal funds rate one more time at its May 10 meeting -- taking it to 5.0% from 4.75% -- then pause.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 12:29:53 PM

$RUT AD line is 1388/295 pretty bullish as far as I can see.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 12:15:17 PM

As I have been saying all day don't even think short yet. Link

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 12:14:03 PM

Funny thing is that AD volume is not even to the 80.9% of its yearly range.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 12:12:29 PM

AD line is now +1639, yearly high is +2171.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 12:11:32 PM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 11:30:08 AM

Lately I have been seeing one and maybe two trades that can make your day and the rest of the day is almost untradeable. Me thinks we are into the trade of the day.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 11:28:37 AM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 11:26:46 AM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 11:00:33 AM

The AD line is dropping but it is still at +1187 and the AD volume is still making new daily highs so the bulls continue to have a firm grip on the reins.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 10:40:34 AM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 10:47:57 AM

I see no indication the markets are ready to take a dive. What I am seeing is a sideways movement that is getting us ready for another move upwards, the much harder scenario to trade.

Tab Gilles : 4/18/2006 10:30:43 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $53.51....Jan '07 $45 call (OBYAI) Bid $11.20/ Ask $11.60. Mentioned to look at back on 3/8 3:32 PM post @ $6.20/$7.20 Link Mur weekly... Link


Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 10:18:28 AM

Interesting to watch the TRIN moving up as the VIX is moving down but the TRIN at 0.75 is bullish so I would not be putting too much into its trend - yet.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 10:16:39 AM


Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 10:09:26 AM

Another one of those days when the AD line/volume tells you don't even think of been short but the markets have already moved so much it is very very hard to think of the long side either.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 10:04:24 AM

$RUT AD line is 1170/403

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 10:02:57 AM

These should scare away any thoughts of shorting this market. Link

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 10:01:05 AM

VIX is now testing its previous day low opps it just broke it.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 9:58:59 AM

TICKS hit a high of 943 but it didn't seem to make too much of difference in the markets.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 9:51:52 AM

Here is another article on Oil from the WSJ A phenomenon of cyclical economics has never been so apparent: Historically high oil prices -- fueled by global economic growth and stoked by global insecurity -- are now feeding on themselves, even as they threaten to undermine some of the conditions that drove them so high.

Oil for May delivery rose $1.08 a barrel to $70.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as The Wall Street Journal reports -- the highest closing price for oil since the contract was begun in 1983, even if prices are lower than the record set in 1980 on an inflation-adjusted basis. In response, stock prices slid amid concerns that prices might push higher still, sapping global economic expansion. Investors have largely shrugged off high oil prices during the past several months, recently pushing major market measures to multiyear highs, the Journal notes. But with concerns about Iran's nuclear program mounting and demand from places such as China and India increasing, the persistent upward creep in oil is eroding confidence among investors, the paper says.

And the effects are already being felt well beyond the markets, with U.S. drivers seeming to pay more every day. At one Chevron station in downtown Los Angeles, motorists had to fork over $3.35 a gallon yesterday for self-serve regular, the Los Angeles Times reports. Such high prices so early in the year -- before the demand from summer travel kicks in -- have some energy experts predicting that prices could continue to break records in the coming weeks, the Times says, while economists warn that supercharged energy prices could rekindle inflation across the economy and restrain free-spending consumers.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 9:42:21 AM

AD line is now a very bullish +1214 and volume is a straight up tajectory.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 9:35:55 AM

The TRIN at 0.54 and below previous day lows supports the bullish AD line and volume. THe VIX is mid range.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 9:34:02 AM

AD line is a bullish +906 and of course AD volume is above 0 and rising. The bulls have the reins this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 9:11:19 AM

Dateline WSJ Crude oil closed above $70 a barrel for the first time, highlighting a phenomenon reshaping the petroleum world: Investment flows into oil futures are supplanting nitty-gritty supply-and-demand data as prime drivers of prices.

In contrast to past bull markets in crude, this year's run-up has occurred even though oil inventories in the U.S., the world's largest market, have swelled to their highest levels in nearly eight years.

Yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. benchmark oil for May delivery settled at a record of $70.40 a barrel, up $1.08 a barrel, or 1.56%. It traded as high as $70.45 late in the session, 40 cents shy of the Nymex intraday record of $70.85, set Aug. 30 last year, as Hurricane Katrina ravaged production and refining facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. The inflation-adjusted record oil price, set April 1980, equates to $97.21 in February 2006 dollars. Year-to-date, oil is up 15%.

Oil at $70 a barrel, if sustained, is likely to damp U.S. consumer spending, which is already coping with the impact of higher interest rates and a cooling housing market. However, the effect may not be severe because, while oil prices are still rising, the impact of much of the three-year bull market for crude oil -- up to about $60 a barrel -- has been absorbed already.

Federal Reserve officials have acknowledged energy prices remain a risk to their generally positive outlook for economic growth, but do not yet appear worried. Higher oil prices could put upward pressure on inflation, but so far, the signs are scant that pricier oil to date has led to broad price increases for other goods and services.

"The rise in energy prices has apparently had only a limited negative effect on the national economy," Federal Reserve governor Donald Kohn said in a speech last week.

Industry analysts and economists have said that given the limits on additional new supply, only slower economic growth -- and thus lower demand for oil -- can reverse the upward trend of oil prices. Still, says Adam Sieminski, oil strategist at Deutsche Bank, "The shock value of $70-plus crude oil and nearly $3 [a gallon] gasoline could lead to an erosion in demand."

Jane Fox : 4/18/2006 9:09:14 AM

If you have been following the articles Keene has writen about program trading you will understand the "reasons" behind ML's record revenue (emphasis mine). Dateline WSJ - Merrill Lynch & Co. said earnings fell 61% due to a previously announced charge related to new standards for stock compensation. However, revenue rose 28% to a record, due to strong results from stock trading and investment banking.

The New York financial-services firm said it earned $475 million, or 44 cents a share, for the first quarter. The brokerage firm booked a $1.2 billion charge to conform with new accounting standards for employee stock compensation. Excluding those charges, the firm earned $1.65 billion, or $1.65 a share, compared with $1.21 billion, or $1.21 a share a year earlier.

Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were expecting profit of 32 cents a share, including the accounting charge.

Revenue came to $7.96 billion, up 28% from $6.23 billion a year earlier and up 17% from the fourth quarter. Analysts expected first-quarter net revenue, or revenue minus interest expense, of $7.37 billion.

"Our revenue and operating performance overall, and for each of our three businesses, was very strong," said Stan O'Neal, chairman and chief executive officer.

Net revenue for the global markets and investment banking division rose 37% from the previous year to a record $4.55 billion. Trading was strong in both equity and fixed income; revenues rose 62% and 26% in each of those divisions, respectively. Investment-banking revenue rose 30% from the year-earlier period.

Merrill's private client group, which includes its 15,350-strong brokerage sales force, the largest in the U.S., reported a 13% increase in revenue to $2.94 billion. Total assets in global private-client accounts were up 12% from a year ago.

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