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OI Technical Staff : 4/19/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 4:28:45 PM

Reports tomorrow are:
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For April 16 Wk. Consensus: +5K. Previous: +12K.
10a.m. March Conference Board Leading Indicators.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 4:27:34 PM

Intel's net tumbled 38%, in line with reduced expectations, as revenue slipped to $8.94 billion.
EBay's net slipped, weighed down by stock-option and other expenses. Revenue climbed 39% to $1.39 billion on strong growth overseas

Tab Gilles : 4/19/2006 4:21:24 PM

INTEL $0.23 eps Rev -3% $38.6B up 24 cents $19.80 aht

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 3:52:13 PM

Yesterday I mentioned it would be quite bullish if today went sideways and we did not see any kind of appreciable fall. I guess you will have to chalk today up as bullish because it has been about a sideways as they come.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 3:42:47 PM

These are just a tad choppy (a little understatement for sure) but the direction is very clear. Link

Tab Gilles : 4/19/2006 2:38:21 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 2:02:35 PM

Here we have Oil hitting $74.00/bl and the markets are in rally mode. What the heck is wrong with this picture and when will we get back to the way things are supposed to work.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 1:59:25 PM

I was short and sure enough that last little buy progrom that took the TICKs to +800 got me.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 1:51:41 PM

Ever see MACD go up in a straight line like this before?? Link

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 1:48:48 PM

This is actually getting funny. Gold is up $15.50 to 638.60.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 1:47:31 PM

Although these are very choppy they are still bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 1:09:11 PM

TICKs -800.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 12:17:29 PM

... mind you though this is OPEX and the VIX is not the most reliable internal.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 12:16:52 PM

Huge warning sign for the bulls. THe VIX did not confirm the new daily high in the S&P futures.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 12:15:12 PM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 12:09:09 PM

Is anyone getting really tried of the refresh rate on the monitor.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 12:08:18 PM

AD volume continues to move upward but the AD line has not yet made new daily highs. TRIN is testing daily lows but the VIX is not. This can go anyway as long as the programs stay out of it.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 11:38:18 AM

TRIN is making new daily lows but the VIX isn't. You want these two in agreement before you can use the TRIN reliability.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 11:09:58 AM

AD volume back to making new daily highs and it is once again dangerous to be short.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 11:05:35 AM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:56:51 AM

The TRIN is not helping today other than to tell me the bears are stronger than they were yesterday. The VIX is tracking the S&P futures so they are in unison. The AD line and volume are all over the map. Things are certainly not as clear as they were yesterday.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:53:14 AM

See how those program trades come right out of the blue but on days like today, when the bears have the strength, they are able to hold back the bulls and we get this untradeable mess.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:45:00 AM

TICKS +800

Tab Gilles : 4/19/2006 10:39:56 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $54...Jan $45 '07 calls (OBYAI) now Bid 11.50/ Ask 12.10

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:37:16 AM

Gold 631.50

Tab Gilles : 4/19/2006 10:34:56 AM

EIA- Gasoline inventories down more than double that of expectations, 5.4M, Crude down 0.8M and Distillates down 2.8M

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:26:44 AM

VIX and TRIN are on the side of the bears and the markets are making lower lows and highs so I would be on the short side if trading at all.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:25:10 AM

AD volume continues to make new daily lows but the AD line is still above 0. We are witnessing a battle between the bulls and the bears.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:23:10 AM

The bulls have lost the reins but the bears have still not grabbed them so the wagon is without anyone at the helm.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:17:26 AM

... but the bears are still not getting anywhere.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:16:43 AM

VIX and TRIN to new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:08:30 AM

You can see exactly when the troops were called in. Link

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 10:05:13 AM

Here come the troops TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 9:53:04 AM

Dateline WSJ White House press secretary Scott McClellan said he is resigning, continuing a shakeup in President Bush's administration that has already yielded a new chief of staff.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 9:52:43 AM

AD line is now +158 and AD volume is making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 9:48:07 AM

Gee all leading indicators are telling us a recession is just down the road except for stock and commodity prices. Now does that fit with all program trading we have seen? Sure does!

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 9:46:18 AM

I get John Maudlin's newsletters and last Monday he post a report from Hoisington Investment Management Company. I have chosen part of the newsletter that in essence says all the economic leading indicators except two are telling us there is a recession heading our way. Guess which two indicators do not agree with the rest. I will make you read this to find out. The Federal Reserve appears content to raise rates until GDP slows. This approach is equivalent to driving while looking in a rear view mirror since GDP is a coincident indicator of economic activity. Monetary policy and interest rates work on the economy with long and variable lags, and it is apparent that a two year time span and 375 basis points of tightening have already tilted the economy toward a negative trajectory. How do we know that? We don't for certain, but great efforts by statisticians have been made over the years to arrive at a set of impartial, non judgmental economic statistics which forecast future economic developments. These are known as leading economic indictors. The Conference Board and the Economic Cycle Research Institute have developed thirteen different leading indicators which provide a glimpse of future economic developments. At the present time, despite Federal Reserve opinions to the contrary, all but two are signaling a noticeable slowdown, if not a recession, in the quarters ahead... Despite the weakening of the eleven mentioned (which I have not posted here) above, two indicators are still rising, disputing the call for an outright recession. These widely viewed factors are stock prices and commodity prices.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 9:39:07 AM

Opps I see the TRIN does not agree with bullishness at 1.20 however, the VIX does by making new daily lows. So there you have it, the internals tell you bullish but be careful.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 9:37:51 AM

AD line is certainly not as strong as yesterday morning but still on the bullish side at +406. AD volume is above 0 and rising. It looks like the bulls have the reins again this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 9:06:41 AM

Here we go again. Another bank that had record profits from equity trading. Dateline WSJ JPMorgan Chase & Co. said net profit rose 36% in the first quarter due to another strong three months of investment banking and equity trading.

The New York financial-services firm earned $3.08 billion, or 86 cents a share, compared with 63 cents a share in the first quarter of 2005. The year-ago quarter included a charge of $558 million after-tax, or 15 cents, related to WorldCom litigation. The current quarterly results include $285 million in expenses for new rules related to stock compensation.

Analysts expected profit of 84 cents a share, according to Thomson First Call. Total revenue was $15.24 billion, a 12% increase from $13.65 billion in 2005's first quarter. Revenue was expected to be $14.85 billion, according to First Call analysts.

Net revenue for the investment bank rose to a record $4.7 billion, up by $512 million, or 12%, compared with the prior year, and up 47% from the prior quarter. Investment-banking fees were up 19% to $1.2 billion.

Once again, however, the company experienced weakness in fixed-income trading, as revenue fell 13% from the prior year "due to weaker performance in commodities and rates markets," which it said was offset by stronger results in emerging markets, currencies and credit markets. Equity markets revenue rose to a record $1.2 billion.

Jane Fox : 4/19/2006 9:02:51 AM

Dateline WSJ U.S. consumer prices rose in line with expectations during March as the cost of gasoline, clothing and hotel rooms jumped, but food and housing prices rose mildly.

The Consumer Price Index increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, after inching up 0.1% in February, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Energy prices rose 1.3%. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy items, climbed by 0.3%, after a 0.1% increase in February. It was the biggest gain in core inflation in a year.

Gasoline prices last month climbed by a seasonally adjusted 3.6%, as natural gas decreased 4.3%. The transportation index was 0.9% higher, reflecting the upturn in gasoline. Clothing prices increased 1%, while airfares climbed an unadjusted 1.1%. Food costs edged up 0.1%, on big declines in the price of fresh fruits and vegetables.

The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 0.4% increase in the overall index during March and a 0.2% advance in the core rate.

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