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OI Technical Staff : 4/21/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 3:44:52 PM

Oil has hit a high of 75.35 using the June contract.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 3:42:05 PM

It sure would be nice if someone rang a bell when all this selling was about to begin. Link

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 2:10:52 PM

New lows across the board.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:49:12 PM

DAteline WSJ Ford embarked on the Way Forward by steering into a ditch during the first quarter, and it may be some time before the company rocks its way out.

The No. 2 U.S. auto maker swung to a gaping $1.19 billion, 64-cents-a-share loss during the first three months of the year amid monster restructuring charges and continued weakness in its North American operations. In January, Ford pulled back the curtain on its massive "Way Forward" turnaround plan that aims to close 14 North American factories, including seven assembly plants, and slash up to 34,000 North American jobs over the next six years. A $2.5 billion pretax charge to account for costs related to plant closings and other actions knocked first-quarter earnings down 88 cents a share, and the rough ride isn't over yet, as Ford is expected to take millions more in charges later this year.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:46:21 PM

Gold up $15.00 and hitting 638. It may be the programs did not buy Gold yesterday and the profit takers were able to bring this market down but it looks like the buyers are back today and in a big way.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:43:59 PM

TRIN at 1.07, whatever that number means, but it is pressing up against its daily highs and that = bearish.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:39:54 PM

These two have not correlation today, which is not surprising considering this is OPEX Friday. Link

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:35:47 PM

I think I will have to put a reminder on my Outlook to update this monitor every 5 minutes.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:33:55 PM

AD volume to new daily highs and the bulls have the reins back.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:14:11 PM

Link Link Link Link

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:10:11 PM

Finally, volatility ($VIX) is locked in a fairly tight range as well. This week, we've produced a longer-term (2-year) chart of $VIX (Figure 4). $VIX collapsed Tuesday during the big rally. In retrospect, the spike upward and subsequent downside reversal in $VIX last Thursday, April 12, was a valid buy signal. For those with a memory longer than a few months, one would hardly call a rise by $VIX to 13.90 a 'spike peak buy signal,' but that's just what it was. Figure 4 shows a long series of declining tops, with a row of bottoms near the 10 area. As time passes, this $VIX triangle keeps compressing down and down, reflecting the continued dampening of volatility in this market.

In summary, one is probably best served by fading every large move in this market -- in line with the feature article we published in The Option Strategist a couple of issues ago. The fact that, today -- April 20th -- $VIX was higher and breadth was poor, even though the market is trying to break out on the upside, seems to be a warning sign that the upside might be limited here. The bears are wounded after Tuesday's big rally. But both the bulls and bears have recovered from wounds quickly this year. So, if the bulls can't capitalize on the price momentum they have, then it's likely that the market will continue to meander in this trading range.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 1:07:51 PM

McMillan's Weekly commentary For the second time this month, an apparent breakout failed. First there was the upside breakout to new 5-year highs on $SPX on Friday morning, April 7th -- following the unemployment report. That breakout lasted only a short time (an hour or so) before collapsing. The ensuing selling took the markets down through support, and a downside breakout occurred on April 12. Within a couple of days, that had failed as well, as the market staged a massive rally to wind up right in the middle of the trading range from where it had started. As a result, $SPX is back within the (now slightly widened) trading range, extending from 1285 to 1312 (using closing prices, and little wider using intraday prices). To solidify the point, today (April 20th), the market once again broke out on the upside, only to fall back within the range by day's end.

Besides $SPX being inside the trading range, we are seeing diverse signals among the other indicators. For example, the standard equity-only put-call ratio (Figure 2) curled upward into a sell signal last week. It has wavered a bit in the last couple of days, though, and might be turning more bullish in the next few days. Meanwhile, its companion -- the weighted ratio -- is still trending downward in a buy signal (Figure 3).

Market breadth (advances minus declines) has swung back and forth with abandon this year. This is symptomatic of the fact that there is no follow-through in this market. It used to be the case that market breadth gave a picture of the underlying tone of the market. Often, a persistent positive breadth preceded a market rally, for example. But recently, breadth just follows the market -- registering huge swings, depending on whether the market is up or down. In any case, breadth is rather neutral right now -- failing to confirm the Dow's +54 rise today...

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 12:48:33 PM

On April 19th Crude hit a high of 74.40, on April 20th a high of 74.50 and today's high so far is 74.45. So this may be where oil will take a retracment.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 12:37:36 PM

Looks like the Gold bugs are back in full force. Gold back up to 632 now.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 12:30:07 PM

THese are not telling us anything today. Link

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 10:56:25 AM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 10:44:11 AM

$RUT adline is a neutral 792/846

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 10:19:05 AM

These are still telling me to stay on the long side. Link

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 10:12:22 AM

They're Baccckkk TICKs +800

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 9:44:33 AM

VIX and TRIN now spiking upwards = bearish.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 9:38:59 AM

These are saying don't even think about been short. Link

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 9:37:51 AM

VIX is mid range to its previous day range but making new daily highs confirming the S&P futures new intraday lows. The TRIN is a bullish 0.60 and testing its previous day lows. So the only bearish internal is the VIX.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 9:34:52 AM

AD line is +934 and ad volume is above 0 and rising. The bulls have the reins.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 9:33:55 AM

Dateline WSJ EBay Inc. is talking to both Yahoo Inc. and Microsoft Corp. to determine whether one of them might be a worthy ally against a common threat: Google Inc.

After years of working closely with the search giant, eBay last year became alarmed as Google started assaulting its turf in multiple ways. In one case, Google launched a classified-advertising service that competes directly with eBay's online auctions and other listings

The two-track discussions began in earnest last autumn, people familiar with the talks say. They could result in some kind of alliance in which eBay, of San Jose, Calif., would increase ad spending with its chosen partner and provide access to the wealth of data it has collected about its consumers. The two sides could also more tightly integrate technical aspects of their systems to better cross-promote their businesses.

It's not clear how much money would be involved or whether the parties have considered a more complex financial transaction, such as one side taking an equity stake in the other.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 9:14:16 AM

It is pretty obvious Gold and Silver are not going down without a fight. Gold hit a low yesterday of 610.50 but overnight was back up to 633.20. Silver hit a low 11.60 overnight but is now trading at 12.43. Both seem to be building a bullish doji.

Jane Fox : 4/21/2006 9:03:01 AM

Dateline WSJ The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators fell for the second month in a row in March, supporting forecasts the pace of economic growth will slow.

The New York-based group also revised February's index downward to 0.5 percent. The two-month decline was the first since February-March 2001. The index is constructed to signal economic conditions in the next three to six months.

"The momentum of growth is slowing as we go forward," said Elisabeth Denison, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in New York. "This sort of data would confirm the Fed's expectations and probably also let them hold rates steady after the next rate hike in May."

The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate 15 straight times since June 2004 to fend off inflation and will probably increase it again next month, to 5 percent, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Four of the 10 indicators had a negative impact on the index. The biggest drag was building permits, which subtracted 0.15 percentage point. Permits, which signal future construction, have fallen for two months as new-home sales have cooled.

Money supply adjusted for inflation, which has the biggest weighting in the index, subtracted 0.01 percentage point. Average weekly jobless claims also subtracted from the index last month. Claims averaged 308,800 a week, up from 306,000 in February. The fourth negative factor was manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods.

Stock prices were among the factors that added to the index. The Standard & Poor's 500 index averaged 1293.7 in March, up from 1276.7 in February, and added 0.05 percentage point to the gauge.

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