Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Tab Gilles : 4/26/2006 1:03:11 AM

Murphy Oil Earnings out Murphy Oil Corp.'s net earnings fell well short of analysts' expectations late Tuesday, battered by losses at its Louisiana refinery following Hurricane Katrina that offset higher income from exploration and production activities. Link

As per Monday's 10:28 AM post I was looking for a pullback to the $50 level. keep a close eye on the charts, this may present a buying opportunity. Look at OBYAI Jan 45 '07 Leap Calls. Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/25/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 3:52:51 PM

Tomorrow's Economic Reports include
8:30a.m. March Durable Goods Orders. Consensus: +1.6%. Previous: +2.7%.
10a.m. March New Home Sales. Consensus: +3.2%. Previous: -10.5%.
2p.m. Federal Reserve Beige Book.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 3:18:11 PM

Oil futures reopened flat at 72.82. I have my short stop set at $72.50 to short crude to hedge my longs over night should the futures begin to weaken.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 3:14:49 PM

Actually none. I have not even had breakfast yet. Been very busy trading today.

Keene Little : 4/25/2006 3:09:40 PM

Hey Jim, how many cups of coffee have you had today?

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 3:21:20 PM

AD volume is making new daily lows and AD line is -1070 so I wouldn't be long here.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 3:06:08 PM

Somebody big is sitting on Valero (VLO) at $67 and it does not look good for the close. Normally when this happens to a stock they dump the remaining shares just before the close. Since VLO had earnings this morning I would think there could be more sellers than buyers watching the clock tick down to closing. I am long VLO and I tightened my stop to $66.50 just in case it is overpowered. I will still but the dip again tomorrow, if there is one, but I want to see the pressure release first.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 3:01:02 PM

The Russell-2000 is going to determine the future for the broader markets. The dip this morning pushed it back under the 100-pma on the 30 min chart. (my favorite indicator) It has tried but failed all day to rebound back over that level. Note how well it follows the average in the past. A failure here could mean another leg down is about to begin. Chart: Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 2:53:59 PM

TICKs -800

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:51:40 PM

Frontier Oil (FTO) is trying to rebound off support at $60 after a significant morning drop. I bought the dip with the July-$65 Call FTO-GM. Chart: Link

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:46:13 PM

Stepping out of the energy sector for a minute we had a very unusual split announcement on Friday. Progressive (PGR) announced a 4:1 split for May 18th. PGR is currently trading at $106 after a monster spike on the announcement and the post announcement decline. PGR has been trading in a range between 102-108 and the announcement could not break the range. Because of the 4:1 ratio I would expect traders to pile on once a directional trend appears. However, once the split passes I would expect a significant period of post split depression. Many funds have a share limit they are allowed to hold and must sell some of those extra shares. I know it sounds crazy but I guess it is a governing tool to keep them from having a large unwieldy position in case they have to exit quickly. Most are governed by dollars invested rather than shares but some do have the share limit.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 2:39:54 PM

These are still very bearish and the bears have the control. Link

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:38:46 PM

June Crude Futures closed at $72.85 and held their bounce ahead of the inventory report tomorrow. I view this as a good sign that traders were just taking profits ahead of the report and the dip buyers are now playing the buy the rumor sell the inventory numbers game while hoping for another decline in gasoline levels. Gasoline inventories have declined by nearly -24 million bbls over the last 7 weeks.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:34:41 PM

In the LEAPS Trader last weekend I wrote about how to pick entry points on existing plays for those not already in the position. One of the potential plays was dip by CSX to the 100-period avg on the 30 min chart. Notice how well that worked today. I told readers to target that average at $67 for an entry. I am long the Nov $70 call CSX-KN. Chart: Link

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:27:50 PM

While I was typing that last post I had a buy stop hit on Total (TOT) as it rebounded out of this mornings dip. I am now long the Nov-$145 call TOT-KI with a stop at $136.50.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:24:55 PM

I put the wrong name on the SU post at 2:00. I said Sunoco not Suncor but everything else was correct. I trade them both and transposed a couple letter. It has been a busy day for me with over 40 energy trades today. My stops started getting hit at 9:31 and it has been a hectic day.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:19:30 PM

Approaching the close of trading on crude futures at 2:30. Now we will see if the bounce from $71.75 to the current $72.85 will stick.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:16:35 PM

Petrobras (PBR) declined to initial support at $95 this morning. I bought the dip with the July-$100 Call PBR-GT. My stop is currently $93.25 and I would reenter in the $91-$88 range. Chart: Link

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:12:27 PM

Southern Copper Corp (PCU) gapped up to $102 at the open and then collapsed to $98 intraday. I bought the dip with the Sept $106 Call PCU-IT with a stop just under decent support at $95.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:09:30 PM

PetroChina (PTR) fell to initial support this morning at $112. I bought the dip with the Sept $120 call PTR-ID. Further support is around $108 with a breakdown in the trend below that level. Chart: Link

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:04:44 PM

Check your email for a LEAPS Trader Update I just posted.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:03:59 PM

Todco (THE) fell to initial support this morning at $47.50 and a potential entry point. I bought the dip with the Sept-$50 Call THE-IJ. Further support is $46 and $44 with $42 representing a breakdown in the trend.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 2:20:31 PM

Suncor (SU) has dipped to initial support at $85.25 and could be a decent entry point. Further support levels are $84 and $81. I bought the dip at $85.25 with the Sept $90 Call SU-IR and will add to my position at $84 and stop out at $80.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 1:52:57 PM

Some of the energy earnings for the rest of the week include:



Friday: ATW, CCJ, CVX, CEG

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 1:17:41 PM

BNI got whacked today after posting a very strong quarter. All the railroads are seeing some profit taking but -$4.75 on BNI is a bit too much. I like the July $85 calls (BNI-GQ) @ $3.10 today since BNI stopped right on support at $82. BNI and all the railroads upgraded their guidance for the rest of the year so very little reason for the selling and the dip buyers should jump in once the smoke clears.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 1:11:35 PM

I used to think oil futures were crazy but I think gold and Natural Gas are the tops for volatility now. Oil has actually settled down into a trending commodity. Never thought I would hear myself say that. (grin) In the LEAPS Trader we shorted oil last Friday at $75.25 and I am buying the dip today at $72.50. If we do get another roll over this afternoon I will stop out and look for a short again to $70. If you look at an intraday chart oil has been making some very strong directional moves intraday over the last several weeks. Some great day trades.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 1:06:14 PM

Hi Jim nice to have you here in the monitor. I was long Gold but got scared out of that position last Thursday. Then tried it short but definitely rethinking that plan now.

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 1:03:08 PM

For those LEAPS Trader readers today the IYE hit my profit stop at $97.50. As they used to say on the A-Team, "I love it when a plan comes together."

Jim Brown : 4/25/2006 12:59:37 PM

Jane, if you can trade gold with the current volatility you are a good trader in the current market. I have put on a few trades lately and barely got out alive. I am going to stick with crude futures. At least I know why they are volatile. This daily interest rate speculation and yo-yo dollar makes me crazy when I try to play gold. I keep hoping for a real pullback to something in the $600 range for an entry point but I think pigs will fly first.

Keene Little : 4/25/2006 12:52:42 PM

Jane, I agree with you on gold. It looks like it's forming a sideways triangle and one more small pullback, maybe 626 or so, should set it up for another rally. One possible explanation for gold's continued rise, other than fear of inflation and as a hedge against a stock and bond market sell off, is that it, like other commodities, become more valuable as the dollar loses its value. The Fed's money printing machine seems to be very busy and that's helping gold.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 12:42:21 PM

WE saw gold really lose it last Thursday but since then it has not added to those losses (as I mentioned early). If this sideways movement at yearly highs continues as the MACD falls, I believe we will setup for another leg upwards. I have no idea what is driving the buying in Gold, whether it is traders thinking it is a good hedge against inflation or if the programs trades have been dipping in here, all I know is this chart is bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 12:32:27 PM

Using the futures as a proxy for the S&P (ES), DOW (YM), $RUT (ER) and the Naz (NQ). I see some MACD divergences but really only in the DOW and $RUT. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 12:30:02 PM

These are still telling me short is the way to be until you some solid evidence of a bottom. Evidence like a higher low or MACD divergence. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 11:39:48 AM

tickS -800

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 11:21:48 AM

These two would be keeping me on the short side. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 10:53:32 AM

These are all trading in unison (ES is the S&P futures and a proxy for the S&P) so I would be watching those highs and lows for further evidence of direction. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 10:49:20 AM

TICKS are climbing so the bulls are getting stronger. High so far is +964

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 10:46:58 AM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 10:44:45 AM

Dateline Reuters U.S. consumer confidence rose in April to a four-year high as optimism about job prospects overshadowed concerns over rising gasoline prices, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer sentiment climbed in April to 109.6, the highest reading since May 2002, from an upwardly revised March reading of 107.5.

Economists polled by Reuters on average had forecast that the index likely fell to 106.0.

"Recent improvements in the labor market have been a major driver behind the rise in confidence in early 2006," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "However, expectations for the economy and labor market have been trending downward since peaking in 2003. And while prices at the pump have yet to impact confidence, further increases could dampen consumers' mood."

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 10:43:15 AM

DAteline Washington Times The U.S. service sector kicked off the summer with cooler growth in June, although hiring and orders for new goods heated up compared to May's pace.

But, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Alfred Broaddus said the U.S. economy looks strong, and inflation does not appear to be a problem and the National Association of Realtors reported U.S. interest rates are rising due to healthy economic growth.

The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing business index for June sank to 59.9, after hitting 65.2 in May and 68.4 in April. The June reading was below the 63.0 expected by economists.

The 5.3 point decline was the largest since October 2001, in the aftermath of terrorist attacks on New York and the Pentagon outside Washington.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 10:38:54 AM

DAteline WSJ Sales of previously owned homes edged up in March but not enough to keep the inventory of unsold homes from hitting a record high as the once-booming housing market continued to flash signals of a slowdown.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that sales of existing homes edged up 0.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.92 million units.

The March increase followed a bigger 5.1% jump in February with the two months representing the first advances since five consecutive monthly declines.

The median price of a new home rose to $218,000 last month, a gain of 7.4% from a year ago. That price increase was far slower than the double-digit gains turned in last year as the housing boom was peaking. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said sales are leveling-out. "It's a good sign to see home sales holding close to the level of a strong rebound in the month before," he said in a statement. "This is additional evidence that we're experiencing a soft landing. We may see some minor slowing in home sales as interest rates rise, but the market clearly is stabilizing." Mr. Lereah expects 2006 to be the third strongest year on record for home sales.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 10:37:53 AM

Dateline WSJ President Bush has decided to temporarily halt deposits to the nation's strategic petroleum reserve to make more oil available for consumer needs and relieve pressure on pump prices, a senior administration official said Tuesday.

Mr. Bush, under pressure to do something about gasoline prices that are expected to stay high throughout the summer, was to announce the decision in a speech. It was part of a flurry of actions designed to demonstrate that the administration was trying to deal with rising prices. The government also asked states on Tuesday to guard against unfair pricing.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 10:32:48 AM

Now this is different the bulls losing it and the bears grabbing the reins. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 9:58:50 AM

AD line may only be +162 but these are telling me the bulls have the upper hand. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 9:51:42 AM

VIX makes a new daily low supporting confirming the new daily high in the S&P futures. The bulls have certainly shown they have the control this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 9:42:29 AM

AD line is now a -200 but AD volume is still above 0. Internals are quite unclear this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 9:41:38 AM

TRIN is a bullish 0.67 and well below its previous day range however the VIX opened within its previous day range.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 9:36:39 AM

AD line is very neutral +27 and AD volume is barely above 0. No one has the reins this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 9:33:53 AM

Us Gold bears are getting a rude awakening. Although gold took a big drop last THursday it has not added to those losses and seems to be in a sideways dance that could burn off the overbought scenario. This is one market that refuses to go down.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 9:23:48 AM

BP PLC Tuesday said net profit fell 15%, in spite of soaring oil prices and following a drop in oil and gas output, a Texas refinery shutdown and higher tax charges.

Kicking off the oil majors' earnings season, the world's second-largest oil company by market capitalization posted a first-quarter net profit of $5.623 billion, compared with $6.602 billion for the year-earlier period

Jane Fox : 4/25/2006 9:23:01 AM

Dateline WSJ. Reynolds American Inc. has agreed to pay $3.5 billion in cash for Conwood Co., the No. 2 player in the smokeless tobacco industry. The deal was announced on Tuesday morning.

The deal represents a big win for Chicago's Pritzker family, which has owned Conwood since the mid-1980s. As recently as early this month, a Citigroup analyst, Bonnie Herzog, had estimated Conwood could fetch $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion.

Market Monitor Archives