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Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:35:08 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.72 and set for program selling at $+4.14.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 is $5.38.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:19:30 AM

YM 15-minute interval chart with updated DAILY (green), WEEKLY (blue) and MONTHLY (pink) at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/26/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 6:15:58 PM

Relative Strength Chart of $GASO vs. $WTIC found at this Link ... Refiners really got "whacked" today and I'll be looking for some short/put plays. I think the increase in capacity utilization from some relatively low levels of utilization got some attention from sellers (big profits of late).

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 6:08:47 PM

Treasury's Snow (comments) DJ- US must keep protectionist forces in check

Sees strong upcoming GDP, employment figures

Predicts Congress to extend dividend tax cuts

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday said Congress should keep the U.S. economy strong by extending the Bush administration's tax cuts on dividends and capital gains and resisting calls for trade protection.

"We are in a sweet spot for the economy," Snow said in an interview with CNBC's Larry Kudlow. The Treasury secretary said people are working and spending and the economy is expanding rapidly.

Snow predicted "good numbers" for the first-quarter gross domestic product report due out Friday and the April employment report scheduled for release next week.

Snow again said he expected Congress to reach an agreement to extend the tax cuts, which he credited with an upturn in U.S. investment.

"The American economy three years ago was suffering from a lack of investment," he said. "Since those tax cuts took effect, we've had 11 quarters of rising investment."

Snow said Congress should resist erecting new barriers to foreign trade.

"That would be a real mistake," he said. "Those protectionist forces have to be contained if we are going to keep the economy in good shape."

Snow also said Congress should keep spending under control, noting that President George W. Bush had threatened to veto an emergency spending bill working through Congress if the cost exceeds $92 billion.

"I trust the Congress won't exceed the president's spending target, but if they do, they are going to get a veto," Snow said. "He has made that clear."

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 6:05:57 PM

U.S. Senate Tax Writers Seek Tax Info of Large Oil Companies

Keene Little : 4/26/2006 5:54:51 PM

Could you post your Price targets (and likely time frame) for the DOW and S&P for this final rally leg. Then if we get the turn around May 6th how do you see the first 5 wave move down unfolding from THEE top and over what time frame? (Best guess)

Well, I always give it my best guess. I'll even sound confident about my guesses. But of course they're just an opinion and always a guess. I've been eyeing DOW 11465 and SPX 1324 as I see Fibs and Gann levels lining up there. The April 13th Gann turn date marked a low (1 trading day later on the 17th) so now we're looking for a potential turn window for a high. I've read other EW reports, including EWI's, that suggest we're in a potential turn window now--through May 4th which is of course next week. Therefore the potential high, by the numbers above, and the turn window (not to mention "sell in May and go away") are looking good for a potential high very near to us. DOW 120-min chart: Link

With an upside objective of SPX 1324 though, that would give us about DOW 11530 if they track close together. Looking at the following chart, and this is speculation mind you, I could see a rally in the DOW up to the top of a parallel up-channel containing price action since January and top out around that 11530 area by the end of next week (in an ending diagonal for the blue wave-C).

As for the first 5-wave move down after that, assuming of course that's what we'll get, first I draw a "control" line from the low on April 17th to the high on May 5th (making the assumption that's where it will end) to give me the slope of that rally. I then duplicate it on the other side of the high (light black line). Wave-1 down should be at a steeper slope than the previous rally otherwise it will likely be just another correction. So by that slope we should break back below the April 17th low, so below 11K, prior to May 18th.

How's that for a guess? But don't forget that after the 5-wave move down we'll get a wave-2 bounce which will probably take it back up to 11300 or so before it gets hammered to the downside in wave-3. This is all fun speculation but I wouldn't take this to the bank. There are way too many variables here. But it will be fun to track and see if it even comes close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 5:51:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 5:43:20 PM

OI Newsletter Plays (close) found at this Link ... Earlier today I noted news that the NYSE was in talks that could lead to one or more deals. BOT put play with trigger ($108.95) a wise idea in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 5:21:02 PM

Index Pivot Matrix (Daily/Weekly/Monthly) for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 4:53:36 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 4:48:26 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Will have 5-day NH/NL ratios after Monday's (05/01/06) close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 4:11:03 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 11,354.49 +0.63% ... closes at multi-year high!

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 4:06:04 PM

Well the bears did the unthinkable and grabbed the reins from the bulls. Wow!

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 3:46:59 PM

EIA Energy Demand ... DJ - U.S. Feb Gasoline Demand Growth Revised Down Sharply

U.S. Feb Gasoline Demand Growth Revised; +0.4% vs. +2.6%

U.S. Feb Total Oil Use Revised Down to +1.6% Yr-Yr Drop

Earlier EIA Feb Data Showed U.S. Oil Demand Up 0.3% vs. Year Ago

U.S. Revised Feb Oil Use 20.316M B/D vs. 20.65M B/D Year Ago.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 3:45:59 PM

Tomorrow's economic reports include
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For April 23 Wk.
10a.m. March Conference Board Help-Wanted Index.
12:00p.m. April Philadelphia Fed Business Index.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 3:26:25 PM

AD line as fallen all the way to +95 from a high of +1194.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 3:16:34 PM

TICKs -800

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 3:14:33 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 3:14:07 PM

There go the NAZ futures to new lows.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 3:13:48 PM

S&P futures are now testing their daily lows.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 3:08:50 PM

VIX just tipped to a new daily high as did the TRIN.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 3:08:05 PM

My goodness we are getting closer and closer to that red letter day I have been talking about. $RUT futures to new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 3:03:58 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 3:00:27 PM

Gol Air (GOL) $37.24 +7.01% Link ... Brazilian budget airline.

DJ- On Earnings, Route Expansion, Varig Woes.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 2:29:58 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their overnight ranges (magenta lines). I have used the futures markets once again as proxies for the four indexes we cover in the monitor. Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 2:26:13 PM

I stated earlier if the bears could break the hold the bulls had on this market today it would be a red letter day. They are really trying and a lot stronger than I expected they would be but have not yet grabbed the reins from the bulls. I'm waiting, I'm waiting. Link

Tab Gilles : 4/26/2006 2:17:37 PM

Welcome back Jeff.....

EIA weekly report Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 2:12:16 PM

... but the TRIN and VIX are not following each other today so I put more emphasis on the VIX and how closely it follows the S&P futures.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 2:10:37 PM

TRIN is once again probing daily highs and the bulls are once again climbing that wall of worry.

Tab Gilles : 4/26/2006 2:09:25 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Taking a beating today, on earnings news and next Q warning. I noted that $54 retracement and a pullback to $50 level. Although it may try to go a bit lower perhaps. PnF chart gave a high pole warning which usually indicates a 50% decline. Weekly... Link Daily.... Link

Mur Jan $45 Leap call (OBYAI) Bid $8.10/ Ask $8.30

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 2:05:58 PM

AD volume to new daily highs again. Like I said before don't discount the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 2:04:48 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1307.49

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 2:04:32 PM

Absolutely no reaction in the bond market to the Fed Beige Book.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 2:02:10 PM

Fed Beige Book Report Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 1:57:32 PM

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) $37.45 +2.12% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 1:55:53 PM

Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) $33.09 -0.63% Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 1:50:49 PM

December Corn (PnF Chart) at this Link ... Farmers bullish above $2.50/bushel. Diesel prices weigh on farmer's sentiment.

Did see one gas station offering E85 (85% ethanol/15% gasoline). I can't remember the price, but was notably cheaper (20-40 cents/gallong?) than conventional unleaded.

However, I'm not overly certain that the drop in fuel mileage with E85 all that much of a net gain compared to conventional unleaded.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 1:35:28 PM

Gold is making a charge for yearly highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 1:33:18 PM

Kansas City Wheat- July delivery - (PnF Chart) found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 1:30:41 PM

Oh my goodness TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 1:26:13 PM

When I was in Kansas this past week, farmers and rural area residents were upbeat regarding two (2) new ethanol plants slated for construction near their towns.

Wheat crops looked healthy, even for the northwestern part of the state. The further east we went (Washington County), spring wheat was very healthy looking.

Turkey populations also looked very, very healthy.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 1:15:52 PM

TICKs +800

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 1:15:40 PM

When the AD volume is making new daily highs never ever discount the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 1:14:27 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 1:04:16 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:52:04 PM

Sport-Haley (SPOR) $6.00 +7.33% ... declares first dividend of $0.25 per share!

Reuters- Sport-Haley Inc. on Wednesday said it approved a cash dividend of 25 cents per share, payable to all common shareholders of record as of May 5.

In a statement, the golf apparel maker said the dividend will be distributed to shareholders by no later than May 19.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:40:05 PM

Problems With Cracker at Shell Stanlow Refiners DJ- "There was a minor problem, but everything is back to normal," according to one trader.

A spokeswoman at Shell declined to comment.

The talk of problems at Stanlow comes amid increased activity by Shell in the gasoline barge. The company bought 10ppm barges in the $719-$722/ton range Wednesday, according to traders.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:38:05 PM

U.S. Senate Votes to Use Some Iraq War Funds for Borders, Ports

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:34:11 PM

Sport-Haley (SPOR) $5.99 +7.15% Link ... find a buyer at offers.

Trade at $6.50 would trigger "bullish triangle" pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:28:41 PM

Pogo Producing (PPP) $51.13 +0.37% Link ... Bear Stearns reiterates "outperform" rating.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:26:31 PM

H&R Block (HRB) $22.56 +1.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:26:02 PM

IRS Said Computer Tax Filing up 6.2% in 2006

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 12:15:30 PM

I really hate it when the AD volume makes new daily highs but the AD line makes new daily lows at the same time. Now if the AD line were at a very bullish number like +1000 or greater the fact that it was making new daily lows would not bother me but the when it is at +600 and making new daily lows it makes me a very nervous bull.

The way I see it is there is more volume going into less stocks and this is never bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:12:02 PM

Chicago Mer Exchange (CME) $468.39 -1.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:09:49 PM

ICE $69.09 -1.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:09:24 PM

NYSE Says In Talks That Could Lead to One or More Deals

No Formal Proposals, Agreements in Principle Yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 12:03:39 PM

Sport-Haley (SPOR) $5.54 -0.89% Link ... bidders have been building above the $5.15 level for this thinly traded golf apparel name.

I'm looking for $10 by summer's end.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 12:01:30 PM

When these two are going in two different directions it means we have a battle going on and the markets get quite choppy. I call this my chop-o-meter. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 11:59:12 AM

Ashworth (ASHW) $10.24 +1.50% Link ... breaks above recent congestion high of $10.10.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 11:51:20 AM

Dow 30 Components found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 11:33:17 AM

So are the bears doing the unthinkable and turning this market around?

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 11:32:35 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1305.77

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 11:14:02 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1309.05

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 11:13:08 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 11:17:08 AM

AD volume continues to make new daily highs putting upward pressure on the markets. AD line as fallen to +854, still quite bullish. This is not a time to be short.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 11:03:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 10:52:32 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $83.80 -0.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 10:51:52 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $65.80 -0.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 10:50:47 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Refinery Operable Capacity, Percent Utilization Table found at this Link

Some sign that available capacity coming back online with a 1.93% rise in utilization.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 10:43:03 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:42:19 AM

If the bears can break this bullishness today and bring the markets down you will see a red letter day. Since I have been watching the AD line and volume the bears have never been able to overcome this amount of bullishness. Maybe it would be another Hindenburg Omen.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:38:50 AM

The TRIN has just made a new daily high but it is still below its previous day range so still bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 10:36:37 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1309.43

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:36:11 AM

Dateline WSJ New-home sales shot up at the highest rate in nearly 13 years during March, rebounding from back-to-back declines despite rising mortgage rates. But the median home price declined, further showing that the nation's five-year housing boom is slowing.

Meanwhile, demand for expensive goods surged during March more than triple the rate expected in an across-the-board increase of orders for the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Sales of single-family homes increased 13.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.213 million, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Wall Street had expected a much smaller increase in sales. The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 3.2% advance to a 1.115 million annual rate.

The 13.8% surge was the strongest since 16.4% in April 1993. It followed a 10.9% decline in February and a 5.5% drop during January. Yet year over year, sales were down 7.2% since March 2005.

Borrowing costs are higher than a year ago. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage crept to 6.32% in March, higher than February's 6.25% and March 2005's 5.93%. Commerce's report Wednesday showed March new-home sales rose 4.7% in the Northeast, 10.9% in the Midwest, 6.9% in the South and 35.7% in the West. The surge in the West was the biggest since a 37.7% gain in September 1986.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:32:40 AM

TICKS range so far today is a bullish +1009 to -503.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:31:57 AM

TICKS hit +1000 at 10:15. I had my speakers turned down so I missed it.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:30:21 AM

EAch new daily high in the S&P futures is confirmed by a new daily low in the VIX.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:28:00 AM

DA Boyz are in good form today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 10:21:41 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1309.84

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:16:24 AM

Interestingly the TRIN is making new daily highs when it "should" follow the VIX and be making new daily lows. Of course you have to consider it is below its previous day low and still bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 10:14:04 AM

This is one of those no brainer days. May change but I don't think it will. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 10:04:59 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 9:52:29 AM

EIA Inventory Preview with 1 month, 2 months, 3 monts and Year Ago assuming no net change from last week's figures at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 9:46:19 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... The PetroChina PTR Apr $90 Put (PTR-PR) expired worthless at $0.00 on Friday ($-2.00, or -100%).

There was no other activity in my profiles since 04/18/06.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 9:36:51 AM

The bullish ADs are supported by the VIX and TRIN below their previous day ranges. Internals are clearly bullish this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 9:35:14 AM

AD line is +812 and AD volume well above 0. The bulls have the reins this morning.

Keene Little : 4/26/2006 9:35:09 AM

Jane, I agree with you on gold. I'm looking for one more small pullback to complete that sideways triangle and then I'm going to be looking to get long gold for another ride higher.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 9:20:04 AM

Welcome back Jeff.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 9:14:40 AM

Index Pivot Matrix (Weekly/Monthly) found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 9:14:29 AM

As home sales cool on the East and West coasts, some cities that missed out on the real-estate boom are becoming the strongest markets.

A look at inventories of unsold homes, prices and employment trends points to generally positive signs in Houston, Dallas and Atlanta -- cities that have seen only modest home-price gains in recent years.

Metropolitan areas whose housing markets look less healthy, at least in the short term, include Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco. All of them have growing inventories of homes and relatively weak job growth. As a result, houses that a year or two ago might have sold in hours now are languishing on the market for months, and some sellers are cutting prices.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2006 9:13:49 AM

Program Trading Levels for Wednesday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.82 and set for selling at $+4.32.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 9:12:33 AM

We now await the 10:00 New Home sales report and then at 2:00 the Federal Reserve Beige Book.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2006 9:11:13 AM

Dateline WSJ Demand for expensive goods surged during March more than triple the rate expected in an across-the-board increase of orders for the U.S. manufacturing sector.

Durable-goods orders rose by 6.1% last month to a seasonally adjusted $230.61 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Durables climbed by 3.4% in February, revised from a previously estimated 2.7% advance.

A key barometer of business spending -- orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- rose by 3.0%, after dropping by 0.8% in February.

The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 1.6% increase in durable goods during March. The 6.1% gain was the largest since 7.3% in May 2005 and the fifth climb in six months

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