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Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:25:53 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

The Regional Bank Index (BIX.X) really put on the burners to an all-time high today. I quipped that the banks love it when Bernanke speaks (Thursday's MM). Actually, they love that steepening yield curve, which was a result of Dr. Bernanke's comments.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:57:09 PM

Not a bad overnight YM long, stop just below tomorrow's DAILY Pivot and that overlap with WEEKLY 38.2% of 11,392.

View potential range for tomorrow as bear target of that overlap down at 11,304, bull target the higher overlap of 11,535.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:55:02 PM

YM 15-minute interval with tomorrow's DAILY Pivot retracement (green) at this Link Thursday's high=11452 , low=11,309 and close=11,416 ... DAILY S1= 11,333 (dashed green) and DAILY R1= 11,476 (dashed red).

OI Technical Staff : 4/27/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 6:30:03 PM

June Unleaded PnF Chart found at this Link

PINK Dots are my hand charted potential bearish resistance trend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 6:16:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity Day traded short the YM at 11,405 (targeted 11,336), but was stopped out at 11,421 (-16 pts, or $-80/contract)

Went back for seconds with a day trade short in the YM at 11,413 (targeted 11,380), but was stopped out at 11,431 (-18 pts, or $-90/contract)

Third time was the "charm" with a day trade long the YM at 11,413 (target 11,450) and sold 11,446 when YM traded 11,450 (+33 pts, or $+165/contract)

Swing trade sold NAKED two (2) of the Sunoco SUN May $85 Calls (SUN-EQ) at the bid of $1.15.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 5:34:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 5:33:45 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 5:18:10 PM

DLB $21.30 ... still halted. No trade that I can find. Level II is cleared out. INET is $13.70 x $29.14, so not much of a shot at getting any type of decent fill.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 5:16:40 PM

Dolby Labs (DLB) $21.30 -2.33% ... Halt alert ... blows away earnings!

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 4:21:35 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 4:19:14 PM

QQQQ $42.26 +0.95% ... $42.19 extended

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 4:18:33 PM

MSFT estimates (First Call) was for $0.33/share.

First Call EPS estimates can reflect either net income, operating income, or funds from operations.

The company's earnings figure is on a diluted basis. First Call assumes earnings estimates from analysts are on a diluted basis.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 4:17:16 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) ... DJ - 3Q EPS 29c Vs 23c>MSFT

3Q Rev $10.90B Vs $9.62B, +13%

3Q Net $2.98B Vs $2.56B, +16%

Sees 4Q Rev $11.5B-$11.7B

Sees 4Q EPS 30c

Sees FY07 Rev $49.5B-$50.5B, EPS $1.36-$1.41

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 4:14:26 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $27.25 +0.55% ... lower at $26.98 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 4:04:14 PM

CROX $29.91 +4.54% ... looks to me that it was James Cramer bullish comments that ignited that buying.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 3:49:36 PM

Tomorrow we have
8:30a.m. First-Quarter Employment Cost Index. Consensus: +0.9%. Previous: +0.8%.
8:30a.m. First-Quarter Advance GDP. Consensus: +5.0%. Previous: +1.7%.
9:45a.m. April Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Consensus: 89.2. Previous: 88.9.
10a.m. April Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Consensus: 58.2. Previous: 60.4.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:43:05 PM

Swing trade sell naked call alert ... for Sunoco (SUN) $80.46 -0.91% ... let's sell two (2) of the SUN May $85 Calls (SUN-EQ) at the bid of $1.15.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:33:51 PM

CROX $30 +5% ... surging in last 5 minutes from $28.55

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:30:37 PM

VTSS $1.84 ... said that it will have to restate 3 years of results.

This one could be headed for the pink sheets near-term.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:27:41 PM

VTSS $1.87 -25.49 ... going to get garage saled here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:25:51 PM

LEND $56.38 +3.26% ... looks like it could explode on its 60-minute interval chart.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:19:50 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 3:16:56 PM

I think the markets are in the process of making a lower high and this is all she wrote.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 3:15:38 PM

Jeff the TICKs hit +1000 (+/- 10, 15 TICKS) multiple times today and between 11:00 and 11:30 almost 6 times. This was very odd because they do not make it over +1000 very often.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:05:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:01:51 PM

I'll have to check, but Jane might have noted +1000 ticks on those two terrible YM shorts I profiled earlier today.

Like a cat coughing up a furball.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 3:00:32 PM

Thanks for the +1000 ticks Jane!

I'm starting to think there's a pattern.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 2:57:26 PM

The bulls may have yanked the reins from the bears but they didn't hold on to them and now the wagon is running with no one at the helm. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:54:03 PM

RUT.X 766.96 +0.22% ... juuuuust under its DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:52:55 PM

TRIN 1.08

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:52:17 PM

YM target alert 11,450 ... blow it out at 11,446

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 2:51:59 PM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:50:51 PM

I was going to go short again, but figured 3rd time wasn't going to be a charm Keene.

Sure seemed more willing to trade 11,450 when I was short.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 2:50:23 PM

$RUT ad line 873/809 matching the anemic NYSE ad line.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:49:09 PM

C'mon you little small caps ... RUT.X 765.60 back in the green.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:48:15 PM

YM 11,444 ... comes to test session high of 11,452

Keene Little : 4/27/2006 2:46:38 PM

Nice YM trade Jeff. I'm with you on it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:45:25 PM

YM raise bull stop alert with YM 11,436, raise bullish stop to 11,413.

5-minute interval chart has MACD kicking up from zero. MACD above its Signal

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 2:43:09 PM

AD line is +130 and AD volume barely above 0, so it is not the most bullish environment for sure. Neither the bulls nor the bears have control right now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:41:32 PM

YM 11,432 ... my 11,450 bull target is a "sell early" ... ahead of the 11,458-11,461 levels.

Looking good here.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 2:41:20 PM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:39:40 PM

TRIN 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:39:28 PM

YM 11,432

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:36:31 PM

YM 11,425 .... need the strength back above 11,430

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 2:28:19 PM

YM Long alert 11,413 here, stop 11,390, target 11,450

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 1:57:34 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 1:43:55 PM

OI Newsletter Plays (update) found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 1:22:37 PM

Egads that guy sounds like Greenspan!

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 1:21:58 PM

Dateline WSJFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke snapped financial markets to attention this morning by hinting that a pause in the central bank's long campaign to raise interest rates could be in the cards -- but he reserved room to tighten rates again should the Fed's committee of policy makers feel the need.

"At some point in the future the committee may decide to take no action at one or more meetings in the interest of allowing more time to receive information relevant to the outlook," Mr. Bernanke said in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee this morning. He added that doesn't rule out the Fed's moving rates higher again at some later point should economic circumstances demand it. The central bank's official economic forecast calls for moderating growth in gross domestic product over the course of this year and constrained core inflation, and policy makers will be watching closely for any risks to that forecast. "The Fed will be just as 'data dependent' after a pause as they are before a pause," noted Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 1:20:02 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 1:04:55 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 12:58:50 PM

The average bull cyclical within a bear secular (which is where we are now) lasted on average 2.92 years (35 months) and saw a 98.66% return. This bull cyclical that started in October 2002 is now into to month 42 and has seen a 94% recovery (using the DOW). I don't care how many times I am told this time it is different these business cycles do not change and this bull cyclical is getting way over done.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:46:14 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 384.44 +2.12% ... HUGE MOVE for the banks today. This group "loves it" when Bernanke speaks.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:23:53 PM

TRIN 1.19

TRINQ 0.61

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 12:18:15 PM

And they just keep coming TICKs +1000

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:17:03 PM


DJ- Health insurer's shares slump 22% as company's medical costs compared to premium paid is higher than expected. Aetna also says Chairman Rowe plans to retire Oct. 1.

AET $36.15 -22.11

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:14:45 PM

Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index Up 0.6% In March From Feb

Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index up 5.5% vs. Year Ago

Outpaces National Index

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:07:52 PM

Selling the cash, but buying the futures. YM dn/upTick is 24,067/24,816

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:06:54 PM

TRIN 1.17 ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:06:08 PM

DIA $114.00 ... dn/upTick is 2.2/1.13

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:04:11 PM

Good gravy! YM 11,442

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:02:14 PM

TRIN 1.08

VIX 11.69

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 12:01:34 PM

YM stop alert 11,431

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:58:41 AM

YM 11,409

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:58:26 AM

TRIN 1.11

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 11:54:50 AM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:54:03 AM

Bernanke Q/A concludes ... YM 11,421

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 11:53:36 AM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:51:48 AM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $7.01 -0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:50:04 AM

VIX 11.76 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:49:36 AM

TRIN ... 1.00

YM 11,415

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:39:09 AM

YM ... 2-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:34:38 AM

YM short alert 11,413, stop 11,431, target 11,380

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:34:00 AM

TRIN (alert) 1.07

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:31:46 AM

IWM $76.33 +0.32% ... after session low of $74.89 and post-Bernanke low of $75.00

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:30:07 AM

YM 11,423 ... session high so far 11,427

TRIN 0.94 ... can't get back above 1.00 since falling below. Has come close, but that hasn't been enough at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:25:38 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage at this Link (revisions to last week)

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:24:29 AM

DAILY R1 here ... could adjust stop to 11,431 , but that would be it. Buyers leveraged WEEKLY 38.2%

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 11:24:00 AM

Both the TRIN and VIX are making new daily lows and both have fallen back into their previous day ranges. All the bearishness we saw earlier has pretty well been erased.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:23:49 AM

YM short stop alert ... 11,421

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 11:22:13 AM

TICKS +1000 again. The bulls are getting stronger and stronger.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:20:54 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:17:24 AM

Cancel prior YM order to go short at 11,369

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:16:26 AM

YM go short alert 11,405 ... stop 11,421, target DAILY S1

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 11:13:46 AM

I really thought the bears would be stronger today but I guess all the money pouring in from the Fed is just too much for them.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 11:12:45 AM

AD volume to new daily althought it is still below 0. AD line is back up to -114.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 11:11:31 AM

The market may becoming more bearish but the bulls certainly are not going down without a fight. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:10:15 AM

YM 11,395

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:09:55 AM

TRIN (alert) 0.90

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 11:09:37 AM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:03:59 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:01:57 AM

YM 11,377 ... wait for trigger

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 11:01:30 AM

YM short alert ... Let's go short the YM on a trade at 11,369. Stop 11,400, target DAILY S1

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 10:55:47 AM

That last push on the TICKS got them to +996 and I see they are climbing once again.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 10:52:28 AM

They're bacckkk TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:51:52 AM

YM 11377

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:51:27 AM

TRIN (alert) 0.93

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:42:36 AM


DJ- Shares rise nearly 5% as drug maker posts pretax profit up 27% in 1Q to GBP2.17 billion, beating analysts' forecasts for GBP1.9 billion, and helped by robust sales of its best-selling drugs. Company reiterates its full-year outlook, with 10% EPS growth in 2006.

GSK $5.61 +4.86%

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:39:20 AM


DJ- Shares tumble 4.5% as satellite-radio company posts loss of $149.2 million, or 60c a share, while revenue doubles to $208 million. Analysts forecasted a loss of 55c. Firm says FCC has ruled its Delphi XM SKYFi2 radio doesn't meet emission limits.

XMSR $21.00 -4.58%

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:37:58 AM


DJ- Initial jobless claims increase by a larger-than-expected 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 315,000 in week to April 22, but the level stays in a range indicating a healthy labor market.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:36:52 AM


DJ- Move is aimed at stabilizing the country's overheating economy. The 0.27-percentage-point rise, the first since October 2004, to 5.85% likely marks the first in a new round of tightening.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:35:47 AM

HMO Index (HMO.X) 1566.64 -3.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:34:51 AM

Bernanke comments (updated) DJ - World Economy Growing At 'A Very Healthy Pace'

World Growth May Be Boosting Long-Term Yields

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 10:29:53 AM

Dateline WSJ U.S. economic growth should moderate to a more sustainable pace later this year but high energy prices remain a risk to both inflation and economic activity, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said before a congressional committee.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 10:27:50 AM

Gee can anyone find where the PPT came to town? Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:22:20 AM

IWM $75.53 -0.69% ... #4 most active ! 10 million shares changed hands in prior 15-minutes.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 10:14:46 AM

TICKS +1000. Wow today was just a great example of the PPT coming to the rescue.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:14:42 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:11:41 AM

Overhead supply vastly limited.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:11:08 AM

Bulls in control above DAILY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:10:40 AM

YM 11,411 ... sets up for test of DAILY R1

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 10:07:20 AM

PPT just came to town and the TICKS hit +1000. Just like Keene predicted.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:09:42 AM

Bernanke comments ... DJ- Any Rate Pause Doesn't Mean End Of Tightening

Urges Forex Flexibility In Developing Asia

'Small Risk' Of Disruptive Curr Act Adjustment

Risk Exists Of Sharper Housing Slowdown

Housing Likely To Face 'Gradual Cooling'

Fed Moves Increasingly Depend On Econ Data

Data Since Last FOMC Mtg Haven't Altered Risks

Fed At Some Point May Take No Rate Action

Energy Prices Pose Inflation, Growth Risk

Sees Econ Growth Moderating Later In Year

Inflation 'Vigilance' Key To Economy

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:05:33 AM

Comeback looks to be driven by Bernanke comments.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:03:46 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 10:02:41 AM

A little retracement here but the bulls are still quite a ways from grabbing those reins. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 10:00:49 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1299.44

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 9:59:10 AM

Cnooc (CEO) $82.26 (halted until Friday) .... AP- China's Cnooc Ltd. said trading in its shares has been temporarily suspended on the Hong Kong and New York stock exchanges to allow for a share placement by the oil and gas producer's controlling shareholder.

Under the proposed transaction, Cnooc Bvi Ltd. will sell shares to parties unrelated to the company. Cnooc Ltd. will then issue new shares to Cnooc Bvi, but not in a number greater than that sold in the first placement.

Cnooc said the securities won't be offered or sold in the U.S.

Trading of the company's American depositary shares on the New York Stock Exchange is expected to resume Friday, April 28.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 9:54:28 AM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $62.89 -4.08% Link ... Off lows of $60.99.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 9:51:34 AM

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before Congress today, and with the current growth-inflation balance ready to tip interest-rate decisions either way, the clues to future monetary policy won't be in what he promises but what he says he's looking for.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 9:52:24 AM

Phelps Dodge (PD) $81.70 -4.56% Link ... Lower after company reported Q1 earnings.

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 9:48:27 AM

Dow 30 at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 9:45:47 AM

AD line is -1584!

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 9:42:31 AM

CAT -2.52%, UTX -1.15%, XOM -2.32%

JNJ +0.18%

YM's portion of "big 10"

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 9:41:41 AM

TRIN well above its previous day range at 1.51. The VIX is also well above its previous day ranges and making new daily highs. Certainly not the kind of environment to be long.

Jeff Bailey : 4/27/2006 9:39:55 AM

YM 11,313 .... setting up for test of WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 9:38:07 AM

AD line -1325

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 9:37:54 AM

Egads AD line is -1235 and of course AD volume is well below 0. It will be interesting to see if the bulls are able to turn this bearishness around like the bears turned the bullishness around yesterday.

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 9:21:28 AM

Gold made a high of 645 on April 20th, a high of 644.6 on April 24th and then a high last night of 645.80. Each high had a higher low forming a very nice bullish upward triangle. My only worry with this chart is the overbought MACD. Gold bulls want to see this metal move sideways for a while so the MACD can catch up. Link

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 9:11:05 AM

Dateline WSJ Rising gas prices have intensified discontent with Washington and handed Congress a frightening midterm election backdrop: a deeply pessimistic electorate, despite a robust economy.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll underscores a striking gap between Americans' mood and the nation's economic performance. Fully 77% call themselves uneasy about the state of the economy rather than confident, even as data showed new-home sales and factory orders remain strong. Economists expect a similar message tomorrow when the government reports on first-quarter growth.

Public unease partly reflects fallout from the prolonged and unpopular Iraq war. But it also shows the impact of pump prices topping $3 a gallon in many places, passing Iraq to become the nation's highest-priority issue. The upshot: Two-thirds of Americans say the nation is "off on the wrong track," President Bush's approval rating has fallen to 36% and Congress fares even worse at 22% approval.

"There's almost nothing that the public is satisfied with," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Republican counterpart Bill McInturff. "What they're telling you is, they want change on every front."

Jane Fox : 4/27/2006 9:02:46 AM

Dateline WSJ Exxon Mobil Corp. reported first-quarter earnings of $8.4 billion, up from a year earlier but down from the fourth quarter's record level.

Oil companies have thrived on high energy prices and robust global demand for their products. Exxon's fourth-quarter net income, announced in January, was $10.71 billion, one of the biggest quarterly profits of any company in history.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average component said higher crude oil and natural gas realizations and improved marketing margins were partly offset by lower chemical margins in the latest quarter.

The company reported first-quarter earnings of $8.4 billion, or $1.37 a share, up 7% from a year-ago profit of $7.86 billion, or $1.22 a share. Year-ago results included a gain of $460 million from the sale of the company's interest in Sinopec. Revenue rose to $88.98 billion from $82.05 billion in the year-earlier period, but down from $99.66 billion in the fourth quarter.

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