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Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:02:43 PM

Ugh! I'll follow up on some of the "dollar" stuff. I'll post some of the MONTHLY Pivot matrix action from months ago. I think you/we will see that the dollar will go this way and that, while the other indices tracked in that matrix go this way and that.

Yes! I've discussed the scenario, outlined the "what to watch for," then profiled the trade, then followed the trade until closed, then reviewed what went right/wrong once the trade is closed.

Are the Dow Industrials trading 6-year highs because of dollar weakness? One could present the scenario that they are, as the dollar weakness makes U.S. products more price competitive against foreign products.

But I've also read that US-base technology company's derive roughly more than 50% of their revenue/earnings from foreign purchases. What's up with the NDX/QQQQ or some other "tech-like" indices the past couple of weeks? Shouldn't dollar weakness have smart money pouring in?

The MONTHLY Pivot Matrix gives us a chance to step back an simply look/observe what, if any, relationships are in play.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:41:44 PM

Well... I ramble now.

Hmmm... maybe not.

If you think traders/investors don't have personal bias, then think again.

Ever listen to James Cramer?

He's got a bias in/for Edward Lambert. Even when the stock looks terrible, Cramer likes the stock because of Lambert's involvement.

Funny too. Mr. Cramer will also start to sweat, get a little red in the face when a caller asks him about a stock where the "CEO lied to us right here on the show." You can sense Cramer's distrust as he hits the "sell, sell, sell" button and then directs the caller to swap to another stock in the same group.

OI Technical Staff : 4/28/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:24:35 PM

I will confess that I, like many traders/investors have people/companies/etc. that I either "don't like," trust, or understand. I AVOID THEM whenever possible.

For example: Advanced Micro (AMD) is a company that I will only buy when I'm covering a short. I have never been able to trust the company's guidance. I've watched it rise from $15 to $42 and I don't believe I have ever profiled a bullish trade in this stock. I've profiled is short/put, but not because I didn't trust management, but only because technicals, or dynamics suggested so. Such a bias I have, that when I purchased my last laptop computer, I was down to 2 choices. One had an Intel processor, the other an AMD processer. That was about the only difference I saw between the two. I bought the laptop with the Intel processor. Bias' are crazy! We have them, we should understand them. I love my laptop computer!

Oracle (ORCL) ... The CEO simply rubs me the wrong way. I understand my bias is foolish, but I have few convictions to buy the stock. I've never met Bill Gates, but I think I would get along with him better than I would Mr. Ellison.

But I'm always OPEN to change. People and company's can earn my "respect."

For instance .... over the years, you couldn't get me to look at an Apple Computer (AAPL) . I had a client that LOVED the stock back when I was brokering for a living. Good gravy! An Apple computer isn't a BUSINESS computer. It is ONLY for the "artsy types" I would say. The only computer to buy is a BUSINESS computer. Churn the numbers, do something contstructive!

I had no conviction toward the product, and I couldn't show conviction to the stock. I could never understand why I, your, or anybody would rather buy a "graphic/artsy" computer when I could buy a "business" computer.

Aha! But over the past year, my NEGATIVE bias really has changed. Heck, I've profiled both bullish and bearish trades on the stock. NOT just bearish.

I never thought much of Mr. Jobs, but gosh darned, since he came back to Apple, he's turned that bugger around. And he doesn't draw a $7.48 million/year salary! He's earned my respect as a CEO.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:32:29 PM

Well ... maybe I need to fire up my "asset allocation" portfolio again. Dollar, short-term treas, intermediate treas, long-term treas, junk bond.

Then the various major market indices, with some gold and oil mixed in?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:27:43 PM

And it is these questions (like Rick's regarding the dollar) that I WANT TRADERS/INVESTORS to keep an eye on these Link

There may well be a tie between the dollar's weakness (foreign capital leaving U.S.) and the DJUSHB (housing/real estate), but the PnF chart comparison (see 08:56:54) doesn't suggest any type of historical tie.

What happened to "last time I looked, the earth wasn't getting any bigger," as it was the PERMA-BULL mentioning real estate as the hard asset of choice?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 8:56:54 PM

Here's a 1-point box of the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) Link

Here's a 25-point box of the DJ US Home Contstruction Index (DJUSHB) Link where I use 25-point only to give us a view back to 2001.

Is there a definitive tie between the two? I'd have to say there is little relationship. Inverse or unison.

HOWEVER and I know I've stressed this point in the past. Ex-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan did say that HOUSING PRICES were a factor for one part of his "sign of inflation."

I (Jeff Bailey) have ALSO NOTED how the DOLLAR will move in relation to the MARKET'S perception of what the FED may do regarding FED FUNDS!

What happend this week? Didn't China raise rates after a pause? A couple of weeks ago, Linda wrote a market wrap regarding the dollar and China.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 8:34:29 PM

Trader's e-mail ... For anyone contributing to the Monitor:

Earlier today (12:45 EST) my Qcharts program sounded two alerts that I had set, per ongoing commentary from your staff, on the dollar and homebuilders. Strangley they both sounded within less than a minute - the dollar alert went off at 86.00 and then the DJUSHB at 820. Strange how this occurs not only just before a weekend, but as we are about to enter the period when one should "sell in May and go away" I wonder what the weekend could bring come Monday.

As the dollar is perched precariously over 86.00 (SOMEONE must be watching this) and the DJUSHB eases further south, I would appreciate your comments here.

Thanks for reading.


Jeff's Reply: Rick, I'll check my commentary, but dollar/homebuilder relationship doesn't sound like something I've mentioned.

If you're a currency trader, look at the U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) and take some notes as to how the dx00y seems find a MONTHLY low/high the first couple of days into a new month.

I am watching this dollar weakness. Over the past couple of years, I've mentioned the positives and negatives that the dollar strength could actually equate to.

I've seen perma-bears mention how negative a strong dollar will be for stocks when the dollar is making a run (usually trade deficit as U.S. exports become expensive, or sign of hyper-inflation). Wait a couple of month and the same bear will turn and mention the dollar's weakness being a negative sign and pending doom and gloom (U.S. assets out of favor bonds/stocks/you name it, get rid of it).

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 7:33:18 PM

Holy mackerel ... when I think "regional bank" I think Wells Fargo (WFC) Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 7:15:36 PM

OI Newsletter Plays at the close found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 7:23:30 PM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $151.15 -3.11% ... two quick thoughts for today's weakness (I'm not a play picker for OI). Think about the strength in the banks (BIX.X). OK... maybe a little "financial sector" shift (taking of profits from LEH to pay for the shift into banks).

LEH is a BIG, BIG bond house too.

Second thought, and something we should be aware of is some "seasonality." Yes .... "sell in May and go away."

My StockTrader's Almanac notes today that End of "Best Six Months" of the Year. (Hard cover issue). Some traders have told me they have the soft cover issue and they're a little different.

Aha! CBOT $105.95 -2.54% ....

I'm telling ya! This/these mystery play picker(s) for OI is/are good!

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 7:02:15 PM

Oh! ... Cnooc (CEO) ... as I review my bullishness back in late March (03/21 & 3/23).

Yesterday's halt and pending secondary. It might make some sense what took place from that time until now.

Could never really "explain" why CEO traded weak relative to PTR, but I could see how smart money knew of the pending secondary. Stock pulls in (I get stopped out on bullish play) as somebody get wind of the pending secondary, then stock pick up some steam (not uncommon for an investment bank to push the stock around for the secondary offering).

Hey, secondary priced at $81 doesn't look that bad after it just traded $90.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 6:47:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity ... Day trade long the YM at 11,406 (initial stop was 11,387, raised to 11,397, targeted 11,475).

Added to the YM long later in the day at 11,411.

All told, ended up getting stopped out on BOTH positions at 11,397. (-9 points, or $-45/contract) and (-14 points, or $70/contract).

Cash session close finds the bullish relief with YM looking at 11,440.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 5:48:21 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 5:38:03 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note the addition of TRINQ

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 5:09:46 PM

Heck ... TRINQ ... over time, isn't it measuring the BIG GUNS of this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 5:09:34 PM

Heck ... TRIN ... over time, isn't it measuring this? Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 5:08:57 PM

VIX/TRIN/TRINQ ... per my 05:07:16 post. What do you think SOME of that is about?

Yes, you know where to look Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 5:08:02 PM

VXN/TRINQ ... per my 05:07:16 post. What do you think SOME OF THAT is about?

I think SOME OF IT has to do with this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 5:07:16 PM

Jane (02:46:31) ... I saw your comment yesterday regarding your model needing volatility.

Prior to my going on vacation, you and I spent a lot of time observing TRIN/TRINQ and VIX/VXN on an intra-day basis.

The 20-dayNet% change is pretty close to a month.

The ER/RUT.X is an index that is comprised of BOTH NYSE/NASDAQ listed stocks. TRIN=NYSE and TRINQ=NDX , VIX=NYSE/NASDAQ, VXN.X=NDX

Point I've been trying to make is the composition of the RUT.X and TRIN isn't flawed, or an indicator that doesn't work, and a reason you quit using it.

Note the NYSE +2.41% for 20-days.

Note the COMPX -0.77% for 20-days

Note the RUT.X +0.25% the past 20 days (despite the intra-day volatility).

TRIN is -34.73% the past 20-days (hints to me there was some buy side bias)

TRINQ +8.53% the past 20-days (hints to me there was some sell side bias).Yes, TRINQ rose 2.15 point today to its close. TRINQ will reset to zero on Monday and percentage moves "not the way" to draw any type of conclusion, but my POINT is that on an intra-day basis, the most subtle of moves, measured within a RANGE can be telling.

VIX is up 0.17% the past 20-days (hints to me call buyers/put sellers and call sellers/put buyers just about even)

VXN is down -3.90% the past 20-days (hints to me call buyers/put sellers somewhat outnumbered by call sellers/put buyers)

This is somewhat of a "step back" and look at things type of observation and suggest to me an ER/RUT.X trader well served to observe BOTH NYSE and NASDAQ internal measures.

It is also a test to make sure that I (Jeff Bailey) am perhaps on the right track, and not leading myself down the wrong road.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 4:06:26 PM

IBM $82.34 -1.83% .... 1.1 million blocked out at $82.34

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 4:04:26 PM

YM alert 11,425

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 4:03:49 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $113.77, SPY $131.27

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:58:14 PM

IBM $82.41 ... session low has been $81.98, a penny better than DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:48:51 PM

VIX 11.75 ... do I hear 12.00?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:48:24 PM

TRIN 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:46:02 PM

INDU 11,357

SPX 1,310.04

NDX 1700.69

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 3:21:55 PM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:15:53 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:09:06 PM

YM ... 11,397 ... kissed its DAILY Pivot.

Really would be looking to exit a day trade long back near 11,425 now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:07:42 PM

DIA $113.53 ... tests DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:02:39 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 3:00:03 PM

YM 11,401

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:58:25 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $80.99 +0.58% .... DAILY R1 provided early morning blocker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:57:37 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $7.01 +0.57% .... looks to challenge morning high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:56:25 PM

YM 11,397

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:55:34 PM

C +3.26% , JPM +3.09%

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:55:11 PM

MMM +0.14%, BA -1.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:54:19 PM

IBM $82.24 -1.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:53:57 PM

TRIN 0.94

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:53:01 PM

YM stop alert 11,397

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:50:44 PM

YM 11,405

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:50:13 PM

10-minutes until "the most important hour of the trading day."

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:49:26 PM

I don't necessarily like what is developing on the 2-minute interval chart.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:49:01 PM

YM long raise stop alert ... to 11,397

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 2:46:31 PM

Jeff not sure what you mean in your 2:28 post.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:42:04 PM

Corrected Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 2:40:17 PM

$RUT AD line 933/749 pretty neutral.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:35:40 PM

Cash Index trader's Alert! I forgot to type in Thursday's closes for the Index Daily Pivot Matrix!

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:33:57 PM

Good gravy ... my Excel Spreadsheet DAILY Pivot Levels are not anywhere close to QCharts'. QCharts' DAILY R2 up at 392.50.

Did I mess something up last night?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:32:13 PM

BIX 390.10 +1.53% ... makes a session high!

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:28:43 PM

Jane ... anything ragarding the U.S. Market Watch and 20-day VIX/VXN and TRIN/TRINQ strike you as it relates to the RUT.X?

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 2:21:41 PM

The market should be cratering with the news out of Iran. Even though we have a strong economy yadda yadda yadda that kind of news should affect the markets, if even for a day. Today it did not. Is it because this news is already built into the market price? I don't think so because no one knew Iran was this far along in its nuclear program. So what else could it be that is holding up the market...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:19:04 PM

YM 11,411 ... now slapping on my "dynamic" (dark purple) retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:01:04 PM

Bonds have behaved themselves today. Oil/unleaded a bit of a bounce, and they'll be closing shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 2:00:06 PM

YM 11,406 ... so, what did you come up with regarding INDU round number closes?

I come up with ... sell long the YM open positions back at 11,425.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:56:25 PM

You unleaded futures traders. Watch these two stocks, maybe a few other "refiners." They will most likely help you with the directional bias.

I would leaning toward the long oil, short unleaded pairs trade.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:54:50 PM

SUN $81.02 +0.62% ...

VLO $65.10 +1.08%

Things haven't changed from observations made several weeks ago have they?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:53:02 PM

If the market doesn't determin one for me/us.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:52:34 PM

Trying to develop an exit point for my YM profiles.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:51:10 PM

Maybe slap your "dynamic" on today's range.

Hmmm.... YM 50% would be 11,413.50

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:49:57 PM

A INDU 11,400 looks about YM 11,440.

A INDU 11,350 looks about YM 11,390.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:45:26 PM

What do YOU think about a nice INDU 11,400, DIA $114.00 close for the month?


Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:41:38 PM

Check out your QCharts June Unleaded (NYMEX:hu06m) 15-minute interval chart, turn on that volume along with your WEEKLY Pivot levels.

See those two volume spikes 04/12/06 ($2.05) and 04/19/06 ($2.20)

The $2.20 level is of more interest to me. It comes out of nowhere, or so it would seem. The 04/12/06 $2.05 makes so much sense as it would related to a bear coughing up the proverbial fur ball. Computer sells that level to provide the liquidity, stalls, then gets it back and another wave of bullishness. Why $2.20 though?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:30:51 PM

I'll have to run some June Unleaded and Crude Oil futures pivot levels for next month, and next week.

June Unleaded broke back under its WEEKLY Pivot $2.17 on Monday. WEEKLY S1 right in here at $2.10.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:23:15 PM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link ... A big ba, ba, ba, boo-yah for LEND and the "crazy" play picker of that one!

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:17:57 PM

IBM $82.28 -1.90% ... any buy orders for specialists as they return from lunch? Sell orders?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:17:05 PM

TRIN 0.94

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:16:08 PM

YM 11,411 ... did get to 11,423 during my 01:00 updates.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 1:14:39 PM

I remember days when a hint of this kind of news would drop the Dow a 100 points in a NY minute. Dateline WSJ The United Nations' nuclear watchdog confirmed today that Iran had enriched uranium and that Tehran had stonewalled the agency on its other nuclear activities, in defiance of the Security Council. The report sets the stage for the world body to begin considering punitive measures against the Islamic nation.

A few weeks back, in a cartoonish ceremony complete with whirling dancers in tribal garb and images of doves flittering about an atom (because this nuclear program is all about peace, remember), Iran announced that it had successfully enriched uranium for the first time. The dancers, it was explained, were even toting shiny little containers of the stuff. If dancers can freely leap and lunge with uranium, it can't be that scary, right? But nobody was buying the Peter Max-on-Persian Holiday imagery. The Bush administration insists that Iran aims to build a nuclear weapons, and that it can't be allowed to do so. John Bolton, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said today that "the United States is ready to take action in the Security Council to move to a resolution."

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:12:37 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... If you feel like you're "in the dark" withouth the 5-day and 10-day NH/NL ratios, you're not alone. Very important for traders/investors to have an observation of bullish/bearish leadership.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 1:06:56 PM

AD volume back to new daily highs and this move seems to be almost straight up.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 1:05:56 PM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 1:02:24 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:52:57 PM

QCharts appears to have used $113.77 as yesterday's close for the DIA.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 12:49:58 PM

ES has breached its black trendline but the VIX has not so the bulls are still hanging on. AD volume and AD line are falling but still bullish so don't think the bulls are out yet.

Opps there goes the VIX.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:51:21 PM

DIA $113.58 -0.16% ... check out its 15-minute interval chart with your QCharts DAILY Pivot levels turned on. DAILY Pivot from QCharts is $113.52. Turn on that volume indicator too.

Little "doji" from 12:00-12:15 with interval high there of 113.71.

A cash move above there is what it may take to trigger some type of buy program.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:43:38 PM

IBM $82.31 -1.87%

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:43:14 PM

TRIN 0.91

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:42:57 PM

YM alert ... 11,392

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:41:13 PM

ym 11,400

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:40:53 PM

YM 15-minute interval chart (updated) with today's profiled trades at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:29:36 PM

31-minutes until trader's return from lunch.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:29:11 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:22:14 PM

Yes Jane, but you're advantage is "woman's intuition!"

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:20:13 PM

Just can't get the bullish bid at this point. Must be very small price advances for those advancers.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 12:19:27 PM

That is probably a lot easier for you Jeff. I am only 5'4" so a little harder for me.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:18:02 PM

I'm not Jane, I'm not.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 12:16:51 PM

Repeat after me "As long as the AD volume is making new daily highs do not think short."

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:15:04 PM

It is like a good suspense thriller. How will it end?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:14:30 PM

YM 11,405 ... never before has so little been so "exciting"

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:13:52 PM

C +3.26%, JPM +2.82%

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:13:29 PM

MMM $85.31 +0.09, BA -0.84, IBM -1.71%

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:11:28 PM

TRIN 0.97 ... 5,10,200 pd SMA all converge on 15-minute interval chart. Pressure builds here at this time interval.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:10:19 PM

YM 11,404

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:10:01 PM

IBM $82.41 -1.75% ... from weakness can come strength.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:07:11 PM

These are the things running through my mind.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:06:42 PM

YM 11,403 ... juuust back under MONTHLY R1, still above DAILY Pivot and WEEKLY 38.2%.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 12:06:07 PM

These remain bullish even though the VIX and TRIN remain unclear. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:05:21 PM

I don't rely heavily on oscillators, but will use them when PRICE looks to be at a "neutral" point as described by the pivot levels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:03:20 PM

YM ... 15-minute interval chart has MACD below signal, sitting right on zero.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:02:28 PM

TRIN 0.96

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 12:02:04 PM

YM 11,408 ... It is "high noon at the YM Corral"

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:58:40 AM

IBM $82.25 ... session low has been $82.10 ... YM bull thinking ... $83.00 would be enough.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:57:03 AM

YM long round up alert ... take another here at 11,411.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:56:13 AM

The "line in the sand" begins to set.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:55:46 AM

YM 11,405 ... it is all coming together.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:55:23 AM

TRIN 0.92 ... a ray of bullish "hope."

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:54:29 AM

YM 11,404 ... I really like my bull stop position. It "makes sense" to me.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:53:43 AM

YM 11,403 ... similar to TRIN on 15-minute interval chart, each intervals high/low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:52:14 AM

IBM ... stock jumped higher from these very levels on 04/25 (Tuesday). Will those very buyers still defend?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:51:08 AM

IBM $82.11 -2.11% ... sets up for test of DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:49:41 AM

TRIN ... check out your YM and TRIN charts on 15-minute intervals.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:49:02 AM

YM 11,406

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:48:39 AM

IBM $82.20 -2.00 ... still doing a bear's work.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:48:08 AM

TRIN ... session low has been 0.56, with DAILY S1 at 0.65. I "know" the YM may have a DAILY R1 potential. Stay above the D Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:46:37 AM

TRIN 0.95 ... session high now has been 1.04.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:46:17 AM

YM 11,408 ... you can feel it. Short is saying "darned," couldn't get the break at DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:45:19 AM

C +3.26%, JPM +2.75% ....

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:44:37 AM

MMM -0.09%, BA -0.33%, IBM -1.93% ... "big 3" per earlier Dow component display.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:43:43 AM

YM 11,404 ... "as tough as it gets" for a day trader in here. What do you do for an initial position? Long, short?

Answer: Nothing... in a "zone of neutrality."

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:37:21 AM

IBM 82.29 ... session low has been 82.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:36:29 AM

TRIN traders with YM ... now your thinking DAILY Pivots. Where are those daily pivots? They are the next level of risk/reward aren't they?

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 11:34:49 AM

From the WSJ MarketBeat Time to break out the adages, in particular, the one about selling in May and going away. Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac points out that since 1950, returns between Nov. 1 and May 1 have been stellar, with an average gain of 7.9% in the Dow industrials, while the May 1 to Nov. 1 period has been sad, with just a 0.3% gain in the blue-chip average. Heading into today's trading, the pattern had held, with the Dow up 9% between the end of October and Thursday's close. For Mr. Hirsch, this can only mean one thing: Get set for a fall-off, and soon. "We're getting ourselves ready for what we see as a confluence of seasonal and cyclical events and technical pressures, in an old-fashioned bear market of 20% to 30% in a short period of time," Mr. Hirsch said. "We're not looking for anything really horrible, but 30% is an average bear market since 1900."

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:34:28 AM

YM 11,402

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:34:15 AM

TRIN alert 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:33:35 AM

IBM 82.36 -1.80%

YM 11,400

Suddenly IBM becomes a "key stock" for YM traders today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:32:13 AM

There's another "line in the sand."

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:31:58 AM

YM 11,401

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:31:39 AM

IBM $82.28 ... WEEKLY Pivot right here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:31:12 AM

IBM $82.29 ... DAILY S2 down at $81.97

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:28:46 AM

YM 11,406 ... "ugh!" ... see IBM

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:28:24 AM

IBM $82.48 -1.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:26:35 AM

TRIN 0.92

YM 11,413

There's your "line in the sand."

Session high for TRIN=0.99.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:24:29 AM

TRIN 0.99

YM 11,409 ... be al_rt here.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 11:23:23 AM

Oh my Gosh Gold is up $17.20 to 655.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:21:28 AM

INDU -0.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:21:10 AM

NYSE +0.53%

COMPX -0.59% ... that's an "oil and water" look isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:16:47 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 11:12:35 AM

They're bacccckkkk TICKS +1000.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 11:01:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:52:42 AM

TRINQ 1.77 +240% ... you know what is going on here right? MSFT $24.24 -11.04% ... yes, everthing needs to be re-weighted early on.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:51:14 AM

TRIN ... just remember ... 1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 1.00.

Then know where your DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot levels are.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:47:56 AM

WE are getting a little retracement now but I would not be reading too much into it. I still see the AD line and Volume as quite bullish. However, on the bearish side the TRIN continues to probe daily highs although the VIX does not so stay on the long side for now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:47:53 AM

I hope the YM doesn't trade within a 11,400-11,450 end of month range all day. 11,425 somewhat smack in the middle.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:46:07 AM

YM 11,418

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:40:23 AM

YM 11,430

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:38:53 AM

Hmmm ... C +3.36% and JPM +3.91% ... "bank" related? Oh.... the bears are going to have a ball with Bernanke aren't they?

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:34:47 AM

YM 11,422 ... if long 2 or more, might take some off the table. Let at least 1 ride per profiled stop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:33:35 AM

Dow 30 Components found at this Link ... Of the major indices, MSFT's weakness probably very small impact on INDU. Weighting and "psychological."

NDX/QQQQ much more impact.

SPX some impact as other software-related stocks there too.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:26:09 AM

Chicago PMI manufacturing index -3.2 pts to 57.2.
A 3.2 pt April dip follows the 5.5 pt March gain as the manufacturing outlook remains quite strong.
New orders fell but to a strong 60.8 as production rose to an impressive 66.6.
Employment fell strongly from an annual high to 47.2. Strong productivity explains the inconsistency with production.
Prices paid rose to 77.2 with energy costs after a 7 month low in March.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:23:27 AM

YM ... I profile trades based on 1 contract. Traders that trade 2 or more, it is a GREAT idea (from a day trader's point of view) to "leg out" of a position when a level of support/resistance is traded.

today, I'd view that 11,459 level as a point that could be a "first level" of resistance. Yes, if traded, we might see +1000 tick reading? Everyone, especially those that give great emphasis to "yesterday's high" is watching 11,450, and shorts will have stops just above yesterday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:18:32 AM

YM 11,435 ... 5-minute interval chart with intra-day directional bias at this Link ... tough to prepare chart quickly.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:15:13 AM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:12:54 AM

Well we certainly have clarity in direction now. Link

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:11:39 AM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:08:42 AM

TRIN 0.87

VIX 11.63

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:07:44 AM

YM Long alert 11,406 here, stop 11,387, target 11,475.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:07:05 AM

Although the TRIN is below its previous day range and below 1 (if that makes any difference) it is rising and should make bulls a tad worried. However, this is contrary to the VIX's new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:04:49 AM

TICKS +1000 - like I said I wouldn't be short here.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:04:29 AM

Dateline Rueters U.S. consumer sentiment fell in April as concerns about higher gasoline prices overshadowed a buoyant stock market and strong job growth, a report showed on Friday.

The University of Michigan's final April index of consumer sentiment was 87.4, down from March's final reading of 88.9 and April's preliminary reading of 89.2, said sources who saw the subscription-only report.

The median forecast of Wall Street economists polled by Reuters was for a 89.0 reading, according to a poll of 53 economists.

The survey's index of current conditions edged up to 109.2 in April from 109.1 in March, while consumer expectations fell to 73.4 from 76.0.

Confidence measures are often used as a gauge of future spending patterns. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of overall U.S. economic activity, but in recent years confidence measures have been a weak guide to actual spending plans.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:04:27 AM

10:00 U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 10:01:39 AM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 10:01:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ... In my U.S. Market Watch, I'm posting the June energy futures contracts. In my current OPEN MM Profiles, at the bottom, I post June (M) and July (N). The 5-dayNet% and 20-dayNet% I like to use crude oil as the "benchmark", then look at various percent changes. This is what the RS chart is measuring, one day at a time.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:57:37 AM

These are not overly bullish but I wouldn't be short here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:46:08 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $81.54 +1.26% Link ...

Relative Strength Chart of Continuous Unleaded vs. Continuous WTIC at this Link

For those that may be new to the MM and my comments/analysis. The Relative Strength chart is a way we can view the crack spread between unleaded and crude oil. For weakness in refiners, it has been my opinion, based on observation, that as RS of unleaded increases vs. oil, that is a wider profit margin and a trader/investor might want to be more BULLISH the refiners. When RS of unleaded falls vs. oil, this is a narrower profit margin and a trader/investor might want to be more BEARISH the refiners.

Futures traders that trade the oil, unleaded, heating oil complex may also use RS charts for hedge-like trading.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:39:30 AM

VIX plunges to new daily lows confirming the S&P futures new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:37:51 AM

Cnooc (CEO) $81.16 -1.33% ... released for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:37:21 AM

Cnooc (CEO) $82.26 ... still halted. T12: Trading is halted pending receipt of additional information requested by NASDAQ.

Yesterday, the company said it would raise nearly US$2 billion in a share sale to help fund its expansion plans.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:36:01 AM

AD volume is now above 0 and rising so if you started the day short start to rethink it.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:34:22 AM

No direction yet so let's just sit back and wait for things to become a little clearer.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:33:53 AM

TRIN below previous day lows at 0.66 but the VIX opens mid previous day range.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:32:51 AM

AD line is -374 and AD volume is below 0. This is on the bearish side but I am giving the reins to the bears - yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:32:07 AM

YM 11,400 (-22) ... off pre-cash open high of 11,419.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:31:07 AM

Dinger of a sell program early.

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:29:06 AM

Report On Iran Nuke Program Highly Negative DJ- IAEA: Unclear if Iran Enrichment Reached 3.5%

IAEA: Centrifuge Cascade No Longer Working

IAEA: Iran Successfully Enriched Uranium

IAEA: Iran Has Speeded Up Enrichment Activities

IAEA:Iran Hasn't Given New Info About Nuke Plan

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:28:45 AM

The equity-only put-call ratios are both on buy signals. The weighted ratio has doggedly remained there since the end of March. The standard ratio momentarily slipped to a sell signal, but returned to a buy. There is one potential problem here, though, and that is the fact that the weighted ratio has moved to a fairly low point on the chart (i.e., it's overbought). It is more susceptible to rolling over to a sell signal from these levels.

Market breadth has been rather poor, although on that one big up day it was spectacularly good. On several days recently when the broad market advanced rather strongly, breadth was poor (as it was today, Thursday).

Finally, $VIX has gone into virtual 'lockdown.' It has only changed by a pennies on each of the last three days. That is not predictive of anything.

In summary, it looks like $SPX will remain range-bound for the short term -- until it can break out of the recent trading range or, more importantly, violate the extremes of its bullish channel.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:27:28 AM

Weekly McMillan Commentary It seems that it was a long time ago when $SPX probed below 1290 as a downside breakout attempt. Yet it was only two weeks ago. That potential breakout proved to be false, as all breakouts have so far this year. After a strong one-day rally, $SPX has probed the upside several times but has failed to either trade above 1318 or close above 1313. So that is now upside resistance. Meanwhile, there is a lot of support, the most notable of which is the 1290-1295 area, which has been traversed repeatedly in the last month. Even if $SPX does break out, can it be trusted? Probably not.

Figure 1 shows not only the trading range, but also the rising channel -- a more bullish technical pattern. That is perhaps the more significant one, and the one on which traders can concentrate on selling at the top of the channel and buying at the bottom. This further strengthens the argument that 1290 is support. On the upside, if $SPX can ever close above 1313, say, it should be able to run to the upper edge of the channel, which is now near 1330. Link

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:22:55 AM

Gold to new yearly highs at 647.20

Jeff Bailey : 4/28/2006 9:18:47 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.62 and set for program selling at $+3.64.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 today is $5.18.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 9:04:31 AM

The GDP numbers were a bit of bad news/good news. Our economy is strong but this means the FED will continue to raise interest rates. The markets reacted in kind and initally shot up then thought Opps and only YM was able to eek out a new overnight high. Link

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 8:59:16 AM

WE now await the 9:45 Michigan Sentiment and the 10:00 PMI.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 8:58:34 AM

Dateline WSJ The employment cost index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in the first quarter, the slowest rise since the first quarter of 1999, after going up 0.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, the Labor Department said Friday.

Wages and salaries grew 0.7% between January and March, matching the fourth quarter's rise. Benefit costs rose 0.5%, the slowest rise in seven years, after increasing 0.9% the previous quarter. In the 12 months ending in March, employment costs increased 2.8%, down from the 3.1% annual growth rate during the previous quarter.

The first quarter ECI incorporated methodological changes, with data now based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System.

Wall Street had expected compensation costs to move much higher in the first quarter. The median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 0.9% increase in the Employment Cost Index.

Jane Fox : 4/28/2006 8:56:19 AM

DAteline WSJ The U.S. economy roared out of a soft patch on its fastest run in nearly three years during the first quarter, powered by consumer and business spending.

Meanwhile, U.S. employment costs advanced at their weakest pace in seven years during the first quarter, suggesting that a very tight jobs market isn't allowing workers to bid up wages and benefits, which should help limit inflationary pressures.

Gross domestic product increased at a seasonally adjusted 4.8% annual rate January through March, the Commerce Department said Friday in its first estimate of first-quarter GDP. Price gauges within the report indicated inflation eased.

The GDP gain, much higher than the fourth quarter's weak 1.7%, marked the best quarterly showing since the third quarter of 2003, when GDP advanced 7.2%. Wall Street expected slightly higher growth in first-quarter GDP. The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was a 5.0% increase.

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