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OI Technical Staff : 5/1/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 7:08:50 PM

Hovnanian (HOV) $38.78 -2.48% ... Cuts Earnings Forecasts

MarketWatch Story Link

HOV fell to $35.87 in extended session. $37.07 last tick.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 6:58:59 PM

Treasury's Snow DJ- IMF, G7 Engagement On Exchange Rates "Positive."

Bipartisan Effort Needed for Medicare, Social Security

Medicare Rising Costs Serious Problem

DJ- Stopping the Social Security and Medicare trust funds from running dry requires immediate attention from lawmakers in both political parties, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Monday.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Snow said the White House is in the process of identifying people to serve on a bipartisan commission on the issue that could begin work later this year.

"These issues - Social Security and Medicare - are too important to be left to politics as usual," Snow said. "We need a genuine, serious, bipartisan effort here to deal with them."

Earlier Monday, the trustees of the U.S. Social Security and Medicare funds issued a report that said the trust funds are expected to be exhausted in 2040 and 2018, earlier than previously projected.

Snow characterized the situation as "a looming crisis" that could be tackled only if Republicans and Democrats work together.

After his re-election in 2004, President George W. Bush made Social Security reform a priority, but policy ran into roadblocks in Congress and has since faded from the headlines.

Snow said the shortfall in Medicare is an especially pressing problem. Like Social Security, the Medicare trust fund is threatened by an aging baby boomer population, but it is also complicated by rising health care costs, Snow said.

Snow refused to comment on a Treasury Department review set for release next week on the currency policies of U.S. trading partners, particularly whether the U.S. would brand China a "currency manipulator."

The U.S. has long pressured Beijing to let the value of the yuan appreciate versus the dollar, saying China gets an unfair trade advantage from an undervalued currency.

But Snow did say statements from last month's meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Group of Seven nations' finance officials on the need for flexible exchange rates were "a positive development."

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 6:41:52 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 5:59:35 PM

YM 15-minute interval chart with updated DAILY Pivot Retracement (green) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 5:43:06 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade shorted the YM at 11,420. Stop currently at 11,410, targeting 11,300 (but noting DAILY S1/WEEKLY S1 corelations)

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 5:33:59 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for tomorrow based on 11,380 close at this Link

Note: Today's YM settlement was 11,367.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 5:27:00 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... from 11,460 to 11,410.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 5:02:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 4:39:30 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 4:21:39 PM

EIA Head: Delaying EPA Rule Could Ease Gasoline Problems

DJ - A delay in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's May 5 plan to lift an oxygenate requirement for gasoline could help ease supply issues, U.S. Energy Information Administration chief Guy Caruso said Monday.

"There might be a little more flexibility," said Caruso, after being asked if a delay in EPA's plan to lift the oxygen content rule would address current gasoline problems and bring down prices. "Anything that would add flexibility would help."

Caruso was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a Saudi-U.S. energy forum in Washington.

Earlier Monday, an EPA official told Dow Jones Newswires that the agency was likely to issue the final rule on the repeal of the oxygenate requirement this week without any changes. The effective date of the repeal remains uncertain, the official said. EPA staff are still discussing whether the rule would take effect immediately after the May 5 deadline or in thirty days, as is common with final rules.

As oil companies shift from use of methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, to ethanol as a gasoline additive, cities in Texas and along the East Coast are experiencing sporadic supply shortages while many parts of the U.S. grapple with high prices that are above $3 a gallon.

Although pump prices are soaring in line with high crude prices, also partly to blame for high gasoline prices is the transition to ethanol. Greater use of ethanol has led to transportation challenges associated with moving the corn-based fuel from the U.S. Midwest to new markets that need it to produce reformulated, or cleaner-burning, gasoline.

Oil companies say they are phasing out use of water-contaminating MTBE because they feel that without the EPA oxygenate rule, they have no legal protection for using the chemical in gasoline. Both oxygenates boost octane and decrease tailpipe emissions but MTBE has been shown to have contaminated groundwater in several states and is a suspected carcinogen, leading to bans of the chemical.

"The transition from MTBE to ethanol seems to have already taken place from what we can tell," the EPA official said.

Groups representing oil refiners and fuel marketers have said any delay won't have a significant impact on gasoline supply because too much of the supply chain has by now changed over production and storage tanks at terminals and service stations to ethanol-blended gasoline.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 4:13:11 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 86.23 +0.13% ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow (based on Monday's 09:05-03:00 session) ... 85.28, 85.63, Piv= 85.82, 86.17, 86.36.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 4:02:57 PM

YM 11,372

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 4:02:28 PM

Sell Program Premium DIA $113.29, SPY $130.47

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:50:18 PM

YM 11,391 ... battles back to WEEKLY Pivot after post-Bernanke/CNBC low of WEEKLY 61.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:45:53 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 03:00 PM EDT session close was 85.97.

86.01 as I type. We may well have seen greenback lows for the month earlier this morning at 85.48.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 3:40:44 PM

Quite a turnaround in these two today. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 3:36:32 PM

TICKS -800.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:36:12 PM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1305.96

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:33:33 PM

Weakness attributed to Dr. Bernanke telling CNBC he is not dovish.

Dr. Bernanke saying market took his comments wrong.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:22:43 PM

YM 11,390 ... breaks below weekly pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:20:33 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,310.25

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 3:20:18 PM

My goodness TICKS -1000

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 3:20:01 PM

Did we get some news the markets are tanking.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:19:51 PM

YM swing trade short alert go short here 11,420, stop 11.465, target 11,300

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:13:56 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 3:03:01 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 2:57:14 PM

Chicago Merc (CME) $452.70 -1.15%

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 2:55:09 PM

ICE $66.00 -7.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 2:51:22 PM

Atlanta Fed Guynn DJ - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn on Monday called energy prices "a very large unknown" in terms of their potential economic impact.

Guynn was speaking in response to audience questions after an address in which he signaled the Fed was "very close" to having monetary policy where it needs to be as long as growth hews close to its potential and inflation stays contained, as he currently expects.

Guynn, a voting member of the interest rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, was speaking in Nashville before a local group.

"I'm not sure that individuals and businesses have yet accepted the fact that high oil prices may be here to stay," and there's not been much evidence that there has been any real changes in behavior related to energy costs, Guynn said.

Guynn was also asked by an audience member his opinion about surging gold prices, which some believe is a sign of looming economic troubles. The bank president called gold not particularly relevant for determining the economic outlook. "I'm not one that puts much emphasis on the price of gold as a signal of where the economy is heading," he said.

In his post-speech remarks, Guynn offered a long-term warning about the government's budget shortfalls, much of which is demographically driven. "The problem is not today's deficit, it's the deficit we know is coming," he said. The Fed can only help people understand the issues, and "it needs to be addressed."

Guynn also said the U.S. trade and capital shortfalls with the rest of the world will eventually correct themselves. But he said they were also longer term issues, though "it's not something that keeps me awake at night."

Guynn said that he believes "we should still get reasonably strong consumer spending" as the economy moves forward, but "it probably will be a bit slower than it was in the first quarter."

In other comments before the group, Guynn noted that new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was bringing "continuity" to the central bank after taking over from Alan Greenspan, who retired at the end of January.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 2:37:09 PM

6-month T-bill Auction DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $14.00 billion in six-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.780%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $29.96 billion and accepted $14.00 billion, including $1.72 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.583444 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.966%.

The Treasury also sold $152.00 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.14, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 7.81%.

The median rate was 4.760%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.745%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 2:20:02 PM

Saudi Oil Minister DJ- 'Bullish' on technology meeting energy needs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:57:13 PM

Chesapeak Energy (CHK) $32.36 +2.14% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:56:19 PM

Total Fina (TOT) $139.94 +1.43% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:55:26 PM

British Petroleum (BP) $74.88 +1.57% Link ...

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 1:55:23 PM

The AD volume is saying we have a very good chance that the markets have made their daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:54:27 PM

Repsol (REP) $30.12 +0.87% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:53:35 PM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $100.99 +2.19% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:51:55 PM

Bolivia President Nationalizes Natural Gas Companies (alert)

Foreign Energy Companies Told To Turn Over Output To Bolivia

DJ- President Evo Morales decreed the nationalization of Bolivia's natural-gas industry on Monday, ordering foreign energy companies to send their production to a state company for sales and industrialization.

Speaking at the San Alberto gas and oil field, Morales warned that companies who rejected the decree would have to leave Bolivia.

The main oil companies operating in Bolivia are Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), the Spanish-Argentine company Repsol YPF (REP), British companies British Gas and British Petroleum (BP), and Total (TOT) of France.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 1:37:21 PM

Gold's overnight high of 664.00 has held intraday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:39:14 PM

CBOT Holding (BOT) news alert $97.87 -7.62% Link ... CBOT April volume flat with March, up 4% on year

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:34:19 PM

OI Newsletter Plays (update) found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 1:32:51 PM

Even though I see a change in the markets you still cannot discount the bulls and the amount of money they have behind them.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 1:31:03 PM

TICKS +800 and AD volume to new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:23:46 PM

Relative Strength Chart of Cont. Gasoline vs. Cont. Crude Oil at this Link (as of Friday's close).

Strong gain in June Unleaded vs. June Crude Oil today.

$2.16 vs. $73.15 = RS 29.53

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:20:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:12:06 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 1:02:25 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 12:43:40 PM

SOX.X ... 514.83 -0.40% ... Probes morning lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 12:42:53 PM

GM TO RECALL 400,000 PICKUPS

DJ- Auto maker is recalling about 400,000 pickup trucks due to defective brake lights. Affected vehicles are Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon from 2004-2006 model years and 2006 Isuzu i-280 and i-350.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2006 12:39:08 PM

Owners of INTC JAN 17.50 calls (profiled last week), should now focus on selling equivalent contracts of May 20 calls on any bounce. The May 20 calls should expire worthless and this strategy will be employed every month until the January calls are free.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 12:35:18 PM

JUDGE TOSSES FDA DECISION ON ZOCOR DJ- Federal judge rules agency unlawfully denied Ivax Diagnostic's application for 180-day exclusivity to sell a generic version of Merck's cholesterol blockbuster Zocor. Ivax jumps 17% and majority owner Teva gains 5%. Express Scripts, meanwhile, falls 3% after ruling.

AMEX:IVX $2.30 +12.19%

TEVA $42.06 +3.85% ... Majority owner of IVX.

ESRX $74.50 -4.57% ... Distributor (upgraded this morning at First Analysis Securities)

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 12:22:02 PM

I have seen the VIX probing daily highs before and it is not bullish so if long be careful. Also the AD line continues to make new daily lows but the AD volume is not and hanging around mid range.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 12:09:51 PM

VIX is hanging around daily highs putting downward pressure on the markets.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 11:51:22 AM

Bird Flu in Florida. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 11:44:00 AM

Egads TICKS -800. Where the heck did that come from?

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 11:37:15 AM

The S&P Futures have a swing high at 11:05 and if it breaks look to see if the VIX breaches its 11:05 swing low. This should confirm any bullishness you are currently seeing.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 11:33:38 AM

AD volume is back to making new daily highs so you see the bulls are not out yet.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 11:19:15 AM

Nymex Crude Tops $72 On Iran, Nigeria

DJ- Oil prices topped $72 a barrel Monday morning as the bullish sentiment seen late last week carried over into the session.

Concern about the Iran nuclear standoff and violence in Nigeria continued to spur buying. However, analysts said prices will have a tough time making new highs without a fresh bullish development.

"The market has peaked in the short term at $75 unless we get some more bad news," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "I think the market is in the sell the rally mode until we get through $75.00"

The June crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped as high as $72.75, up 87 cents.

June Brent on London's ICE Futures was up 49 cents at $72.51 a barrel.

The June heating oil contract was up 61 points at $2.0190 a gallon. The June gasoline contract was 1.18 cents higher at $2.1010 a gallon.

Monday's advance helped erase some of the steep losses seen during the first four days of last week. Those losses were brought on by a sharp improvement in refinery utilization, President George W. Bush's pledge to waive fuel requirements, as well as China's unexpected interest rate hike.

In the end, however, "the conditions that have given impetus to buyers have not changed," said Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president for risk management at Fimat USA in New York.

Foremost among those is concern that the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program could escalate and lead to a disruption in the Persian Gulf producer's oil supplies.

The U.N. Security Council is expected this week to begin debating new steps aimed at persuading Iran to comply with international demands to halt its uranium enrichment activities.

Iran over the weekend offered to allow snap inspections of its nuclear facilities if the Security Council hands the dispute to the International Atomic Energy Agency, but U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Iran was "playing games."

While few analysts see the prospect of an immediate escalation in the Iran nuclear showdown, "potentially there is a lot of oil that could be lost if sanctions are applied," Fitzpatrick said. "We're not close to that, but it's certainly a possibility."

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 11:14:50 AM

AD line and volume continue to make new daily lows. So far we are seeing another day when the bears have been able to turn a very bullish market around and make new daily lows. Another reason to be very careful if in bullish positions longer term. We are entering a new phase here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 11:09:50 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 11:02:07 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 10:40:33 AM

Now it is time for the bulls to start to worry - both AD volume and the AD line are making new daily lows however I am not ready to say the bears have the reins yet because AD line is still +500 and AD volume above 0.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 10:37:40 AM

LEVEL 3 TO BUY TELCOVE FOR $1.08B

DJ- Network provider agrees to buy closely held TelCove, the latest in Level 3's plan to roll up telecom infrastructure as battered industry returns to health. Level 3 has acquired three other networking companies in past six months.

LVLT $5.80 +7.40% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 10:35:44 AM

BOEING TO BUY AVIALL FOR $1.7B

DJ- Boeing agrees to pay $48 a share for the aviation parts and services company, a 27% premium to Friday's closing price. Deal is the first big acquisition for Chairman and CEO McNerney.

BA $83.90 +0.53% Link

AVL $47.02 +24.72% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 10:32:18 AM

WAL-MART POSTS STRONG APRIL SALES

DJ- Retailer reports a preliminary same-store-sales increase of 6.8% last month, beating Wal-Mart's projection for 4-6% growth. Mainly retailers are expected to post sizable year-over-year gains with Easter falling in April this year.

WMT $46.43 +3.10% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 10:29:42 AM

US INCOME, SPENDING SURPASS EXPECTATIONS

DJ- Commerce Department says personal income rises 0.8% in March and spending climbs 0.6%. Economists expected both readings to increase 0.4%. Price index for personal-consumption expenditures excluding food and energy rises 0.3%, with year-over-year increase at 2%. Federal Reserve watches the yearly growth for signs of excessive inflation.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 10:23:15 AM

Dateline Rueters U.S. construction spending jumped 0.9 percent in March, more than twice expectations, to a record high on the back of soaring outlays on private residential building, a government report showed on Monday.

Construction spending rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.199 trillion in March from an upwardly revised $1.189 trillion rate in February, the Commerce Department reported.

That increase topped Wall Street forecasts of a 0.4 percent gain in construction spending.

Both private and public construction spending hit new highs in March, as did private residential construction, the department said.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 10:21:08 AM

Here is a comment from the ISM website about today's ISm report. The PMI indicates that the manufacturing economy grew in April for the 35th consecutive month as it registered 57.3 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points when compared to March's reading of 55.2 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The April PMI indicates that both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector are growing. "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through April (56 percent) corresponds to a 4.8 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for April (57.3 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 5.3 percent increase in real GDP annually."

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 10:14:26 AM

ISM April Mfg. Business Index 57.3 vs. March 55.2

US ISM April Prices Index 71.5 Vs March 66.5

US ISM April Employment Index 55.8 Vs March 52.5

US ISM April Production Index 60.4 Vs March 57.5

US ISM April New Orders Index 57.6 Vs March 58.4

US ISM April Inventories 51.3 Vs March 48.7

US ISM:Production, Employment See 'Significant Strength'

US ISM: 'Major Concerns' Over Energy, Commodity Prices

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 10:10:49 AM

TICKS have hit a very bullish +1228.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 10:10:04 AM

TICKS +1000 again. I told to not discount the bulls.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 10:06:47 AM

All markets but ER are now making new daily lows. It looks like the bears have ripped the reins from the bulls but the AD line is still +1071 and AD volume above 0 so don't discount the bulls quite yet. The bears are far from driving this wagaon.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 10:04:20 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 10:00:20 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 9:55:40 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart with updated DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 9:53:07 AM

The AD line is now 1290 which is above its 80.90% fib level of its yearly range. The Ad line's yearly high was 2608 made on April 18th.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 9:48:25 AM

Bonds broke their previous day highs but have reversed and are not now heading down to test previous day lows.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 9:45:45 AM

This are telling you don't even think short. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 9:36:06 AM

AD line +1018 and Ad volume above 0 and rising. No doubt as to who has the reins this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 9:26:30 AM

Rackable Systems (RACK) $51.39 Link ... ticks higher at $52.00 pre-market.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2006 9:17:47 AM

Program Trading Levels for Monday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+6.16 and set for program selling at $+3.68.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 today is $5.04.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 9:12:12 AM

Gold hit a new yearly high overnight, 664.00.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 9:09:09 AM

Dateline WSJ The dollar is suffering its most painful selloff in months, a trend that could reverberate throughout the stock and bond markets.

The U.S. currency fell 0.7% to an 11-month low against the euro on Friday at $1.2616 and to more than a two-decade low against the Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar index has fallen six straight days and last week endured its biggest one-week decline in 16 weeks.

The dollar already was going through a rough patch when it was hit on two fronts last week. The Group of Seven leading industrial nations said emerging economies should let their currencies appreciate to help reduce the large trade surpluses these countries have with the U.S. and other developed nations. Analysts say the G-7 statement represents a step forward from Washington's lone voice and ratchets up the pressure on Asian governments to allow their currencies to appreciate.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 9:06:29 AM

WE now await :
10a.m. March Construction Spending. Previous: +0.8%.
10a.m. April ISM Mfg Business Index. Previous: 55.2.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2006 9:05:24 AM

Dateline WSJ Early Monday, the Commerce Department said personal income increased 0.8% in March, after rising an unrevised 0.3% in February. March personal consumption rose by 0.6%, after a revised 0.2% increase the month before. Economists called for a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.4% increase for spending during March.

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