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Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:41:59 AM

12:16:30 contd ... Now you've got your 100 S&P components typed into your "portfolio tracker." Just like an institutional computer or hedge fund manager and you're ready to "act" at whatever the market throws at you.

News (example) Zap! "Fed cuts rates, fed cuts rates!" or... Zango! "AIG lowers guidance, cites government regulations having negative impact!"

Now you pull up your OEX portfolio and have an idea that Financials have a rather meaningful weighting in the ES/SPX. Maybe you've done a little extra work and have your financials sub-sorted by Money Center Banks (sorted by market cap) and think BKX.X, or BIX.X, then Insurance (sorted by market cap) IUX.X, then Brokers (sorted by market cap) XBD.X, then Credit Card)

Where's the trade? Is there a trade happening?

You look at this in your customized OEX tracker ... Link

If you EVER look at this and they are all down 2%, yet the TRIN is below 1.00, even DAILY Pivot at 0.80 and the NYSE a/d line is in that "you don't want to be trying to short here" area, you might think ... "Hey, TRIN doesn't make sense (maybe you've already been looking for clues as to why the TRIN isn't making sense) and the financials are suddenly getting crushed and the ES/SPY/SPX/OEX has fallen 0.75% in 2-minutes. You might just think ... SHORT/PUT!

If you ever looked at your OEX customized super-duper portfolio tracker one hour and the financials were fractionaly lower, but then looked at them an hour later and C was up 1.5% and the rest were "gett'n green" and the ES/SPX/SPY was finding some strength after it had been sitting on WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot Analysis overlapping level of support, you might just think ... BUY/CALL!

Then +800 tick, or buy program premium has you hitting the offer.

Maybe it is a quiet session, nothing seems to be happening and instead of calling your friend and swapping recipes you're scrolling through you customized OEX portfolio tracker and see Tech-related components (maybe a sub-sector like Semiconductors is all green, while everything else is mixed.

You look at ES/SPY and it isn't really at a "level" that looks compelling for a bull entry. Maybe it is the NQ/QQQQ that offers the trade? Maybe the SMH is going to be the better trade as the move in chips just gets covered up by the mixed trade in the other 80%, or 50% of the index you usually trade.

Hey! Marc follows the NQ and has a habit of trading long/short. What does he think? Oh heck! He just went LOOOOOOONG!

Even though Jeff just said "INTC is getting a pop, but it don't mean nutt'n for the YM."

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 12:16:30 AM

S&P 100 Top 25 MC Weighted found at this Link ... Traders that believe a stock can drive a sector, which can drive its sector, which can drive an index will love some of the features QCharts and other trading platforms provide. Here I show different measures/fields. I touched on RISK today and "Beta" is a measure of risk. You'll have to take my word, but the the SPY's beta is 0.996 (let's say 1.00). Yes.. 1.00, perhaps similar to TRIN 1.00 being a "waterline" or initial benchmark to "all being equal." As a sector risk comparison, the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) beta is 2.419.

See Intel (INTC) ? Its beta is 2.185.

If I were to play a game of word(s) association, do you associate "semiconductor" with "slow/lower risk" or "volatile/higher risk?"

Can I go back to the INDU/YM real quick and my "harping" on knowing how/what/weighting a stock/sector may have, or comprise the index you're trading? Everyone should know where INTC ranks as weighting importance in the INDU/YM vs. its weighting in the OEX. The NQ/NDX/QQQQ has INTC a larger influence than the OEX.

If you are and ES/SPY/SPX focused trader, then I believe you need to have some idea of what sectors may have greater influence than others. S&P gives it to you at this Link

You may have/want to do a little extra work and click on "Financials" to then further break out what is a bank, a broker, an insurer, etc. etc.

Same thing for Information Technology and break out semiconductor, software, biotech, etc, etc. You don't have to get it down to the ant's behind, just have an idea of what sectors/industry's have some weight. If a BIG GUN in the heavy weighted group makes a major move, "group think" can take hold.

See why the YM is a little "easier" to work with?

The Russell 2000? No thank you. (grin) Here's the Russell 2000 Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:54:18 PM

Trader's Question : ... Jeff: Thanks for the Dow update. How about leading stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Can't seem to find a site with the weighting of the top 10 (about 20-25% of index). Mike

Here's a Link to the CBOE site and S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) components.

Here's a Link for the S&P 500 (SPX.X)

What I've suggested/shown in the past (I'll repeat in next post) is to just take the S&P 100 components and if you have QCharts, or some service that allows you to sort by various categories/measures, punch in your 100 (instead of 500) into that "portfolio."

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:24:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity ... At the opening tick we were stopped out of the 2/3 bullish position in IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) at $69.00 ($+2.24/share, or +3.36%).

Day traded short the YM at 11,486 with stop at 11,500 and target of 11,461. Close out at 11,475 (+11 pts, or $+55/contract)

OI Technical Staff : 5/4/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:32:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Volume brisk at the NYSE. 2.43 billion is becoming "average" early in the month.

36 new lows at the NASDAQ suggests buyers of weakness and short covering, bottom fishing bulls perhaps.

Here is a portion 03/31 to 5/04 of various internals measures for the NYSE and NASDAQ. Link

I was out of the office from 04/18-04/25 so I'm in the process of rebuilding the NYSE/NASDAQ and SPX NH/NL 5-day and 10-day NH/NL ratios (an indicator for bullish/bearish leadership).

I did take some of the 04/19/06 internals from the OI Market Wrap that evening. The 04/19 NH indications may be suspect.

At tonight's close, the U.S. Market Watch has the Russell 2000 (RUT.X) up +1.74% and outperforming the major indices the past 5-days.

The very broad NASDAQ Composite and narrower NASDAQ-100 (large cap NASDAQ) have been underperforming at -0.89% and -1.01% respectively. When I look at the rather "strong" NASDAQ NH/NL ratios, I do think it begins to "confirm" Marc's commentary that the NASDAQ may be the place to be for a strong rebound.

Recent NASDAQ Comp. price inflection highs/low have been H= 2,375 on 04/07, then a L= 2,311 on 04/17, then a H= 2,375 on 04/20 and recen L= 2,295 yesterday.

Trader and investors alike can get the "feel based on observation" of my inchworm analogy from the NH/NL ratios.

For instance, see anemic NH/NL measures for the SPX on 04/12 and 4/13. It is as if the inchworms head (NH) and tail (NL) were touching each other. If you can, pull up a chart of the SPX and drag your cursor along those dates.

On 04/17, we see a little "pop" from the NH relative to NL. Almost as if the tail of the inchworm was trying to dig in, and the inchworm's head was moving up and away.

I don't know what the NH/NL ratios were on 04/18, but I can envision them being much stronger at the NH end. Notably stronger than 8:6, or 6:8, or 17:9.

Even on an hour-to-hour basis on 04/18 as that session progressed.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 8:33:31 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 6:54:19 PM

YM Comparison (day review) 15-minute intervals at this Link ... Well, I can see how either DAILY Pivot Retracement and levels come into play today.

I want to touch on a couple of things from today's MM commentary.

Keene made good comment today (10:30:07 & 10:31:57) regarding staying focused on the index you're trading and the levels. MY REASONING/CONVICTIONS for understanding your index, and what is going on AROUND YOUR TRADE is so that you have some type of idea as to what you MIGHT WANT TO DO ONCE YOU GET TO THAT LEVEL. Do I sell? Do I buy? Do I hold? Whatever I do based on other observations, then WHERE IS THE NEXT LEVEL of RISK, or REWARD for my action, or inaction (hold/neutrality)?

What was your broader market observation this morning? Maybe you do rely on the U.S. Market Watch more than you thought you did? Maybe not. But follow me here.

As I (Jeff Bailey) looked at things, it was a BULLLLL MARKET as energy futures were getting hit lower. The "catalyst for strength!"

But I'll be very specific here, as it relates to the YM. Generalities get me in trouble.

Here is this morning's 10:00 Market Watch Link

Jane's 02:01:37 reply to Jeff's 01:59:09 and 01:59:42 was worded wrong (in my opinion).

RISK and PRICE are two entirely different terms. Approximately 65% of STOCK specific RISK is attributed to the market while approximately 25% of stock risk is attributed its sector. RISK may be mathematically derive using volatility measure for MARKET, SECTOR, then stock. I do use the word "approximately" as one MARKET might have differing volatility than another market. One sector greater volatility than another sector. One stock greater volatility than another stock.

Now do this, at it does tie in with Jane's 02:01:37 and my 01:59:09. Today is a "perfect example" as to how Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $63.31 -0.72% traded earlier this morning, then later as I believe sector action took hold and overrode the "market"/YM.

Why did XOM bid at the open? On Wednesday, it closed at $63.74. At 10:15 AM EDT, XOM was trading $64.33.

Yes. Certainly the BULLLL Market open had "basket buying" taking place, with energy's decline most likely the bullish catalyst. Traders, computer models that may have been short the scenario of higher energy, may have been in buy mode. The YM/ES/NQ/ER are "immediate" and highly leverageable ways to get squared up.

XOM didn't bid at the open because energy prices were falling. XOM bid at the open due to MARKET/YM strength and its larger weighting in the index.

It may/might then be assumed that as the session progressed, selling becomes "focused" on XOM and/or the sector.

As it relates to a short in the YM at WEEKLY R1 (after observation made earlier in the week of how the YM was trading relative to its WEEKLY Pivot retracement) a "reason" to be bearish unfolds.

Was a YM short at 10:13:52 the "best" short trade I could have profiled? Probably not (I wasn't just looking to short something either). XOM was a better short via the scenario, but XOM's eventual retreat did have some negative impact on the YM. I thought it may, as it is a "top 10" heavyweight.

Note: The OIX fell -0.65% today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:56:04 PM

South America Leaders to "Conciliate" Bolivia Gas Issue (update story)

DJ- Four South American presidents meeting in Argentina on Thursday agreed to "conciliate" issues raised by the nationalization on Monday of Bolivian natural gas reserves, saying their main concern was to guarantee gas supplies for all nations in the region.

A statement regarding the meeting was read to reporters by Argentine President Nestor Kirchner, the host of the meeting. The statement, and a subsequent news conference, was carried live on Brazilian television.

Bolivian President Evo Morales, author of the order nationalizing gas resources, said, "The presidents today all agreed to aid Bolivia economically."

The statement by the presidents reaffirmed Bolivia's "sovereign right" to order the nationalization.

Monday's action by the Bolivian government raised issues such as possible price hikes for Bolivian gas sold to Argentina and Brazil. It also gave multinational energy companies operating in Bolivia 180 days to renegotiate contracts.

Commenting specifically on the gas issues raised by the Monday action, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said, "Bilateral talks between Brazil and Bolivia will resolve issues such as investment, prices and consequences of the nationalization." President Lula didn't offer a timetable for the talks.

President Lula also responded to tensions arising between Bolivia and Brazilian state-owned energy company Petrobras. On Wednesday, Petrobras executives said they would suspend any and all investments in Bolivia. Bolivian President Morales responded in comments made in Bolivia that the Petrobras decision was a form of "blackmail."

President Lula attempted to downplay the tension by saying, "Petrobras is free to decide whether to investor, or not, in Bolivia. Its decisions will be made on the basis of sound business judgment."

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:53:56 PM

ICE $68.99 -1.65% ... low of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:52:52 PM

Petrobras (PBR) $101.24 -0.32% Link ... Bolivian news of late looks to have had little impact.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:50:04 PM

With nothing else, I would have to think "short covering" in the Nat. Gas complex.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:48:56 PM

Continuous Nat. Gas $0.20 box size Link

Dorsey/Wright has mid-point of 10-week trading band at $7.20. Top at $9.20 and Low is somewhere below $5.60.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:43:25 PM

I'm really not finding anything to explain the rise in Nat. Gas from 52-week lows. Could be some rotation/rebalance in energy complex.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:41:16 PM

Nat Gas (headlines) ... South America Leaders To "Conciliate" Bolivia Gas Issue

South America Leaders Agree On Gas Supplies For All

Petrobras Free To Decide Bolivia Investments

PBR $101.25 -0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:30:13 PM

03:10 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 3:34:04 PM

Here is a chart of the Gold eminis YG. Some things to start watching are:
First of all notice the cyan linear regression curve and how daily highs have all been above this it since March 23rd. Watch for when those highs can no longer get above that line.
Secondly notice the black upward trendline. Watch for a close below that line.
Thirdly notice the red 20EMA. If you get a close below that line the bears are in control. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:26:26 PM

Altria (MO) $73.65 +0.71% ... retraces 50% of its Dec to recent April lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:18:20 PM

Chesapeak Energy (CHK) $32.78 -1.35% ... James Cramer mentioned the other day that many natural gas producers had hedged all of their production (into 2007 if memory serves me correctly).

Service providers to the nat gas sector might be the better play for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:15:49 PM

Oil Service (OSX.X) 228.94 -0.36% ... reversing losses.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 3:12:51 PM

03:10 Market Watch at this Link

Nat. Gas up notably after mixed trade earlier.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 2:48:59 PM

Jeff obviously I am talking in generalities and not every stock every day adheres to the 70-20-10 rule.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 2:45:19 PM

Gold has hit a high of 682.10, onward and upward.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 2:44:53 PM

The large cap markets have all made lower lows and highs. The $RUT is the only market to make a higher high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 2:29:40 PM

Jane, Jane, Jane ... How do you jump from "stock" to "market" without passing through sector?

A MARKET is made up of SECTORS. Within a sector is STOCKS.

So Jane, so that you can understand, and not confuse everyone (per upcoming analysis for George's question.

Let's do it this way .... bunch of stocks = sector, then bunch of sectors = market.

Then review the U.S. Market Watch, where I'll be starting with the 20-dayNet%.

While I'm working on that Jane, please explain Wellpoint (WLP) $69.17 (+2.39% on the day, -8.31% for 20-days) as it relates to 70% of its stock price being attributed to the MARKET.

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 2:18:41 PM

The COMP is also making new highs. Interesting that the big caps are lagging in this respect, including NDX.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 2:16:13 PM

ER to new daily highs.

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 2:15:50 PM

The RUT is not waiting around for anybody and is joining the TRAN to new highs here.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 2:14:14 PM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 2:01:37 PM

Actually Jeff 70% of a stock price is attributed to the market, 20% to the sector and the rest to the stock.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:59:42 PM

Market, sector, stock.... Market, sector, stock.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:59:09 PM

George ... I'm getting started on your stock questions, but need to get caught up on their associated sectors. What is it? About 70% of a stocks price action can be attributed to the sector it is associated with?

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 1:52:28 PM

I'm getting the feeling the market is entering the hold period as it waits now for the jobs number tomorrow morning. And then it will go on hold for the FOMC announcement next week (10th). On hold is what we seem to do a lot of, interspersed with the occasional buy or sell program that catches sleeping traders off guard.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 1:51:25 PM

Jeff Suncor Energy (SU) has a huge stake in the Alberta Oil sands as well.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:48:13 PM

ICE $69.28 -1.22% ... WEEKLY Pivot held resistance, slipping back below DAILY Pivot and about to retest morning open of $69.00. Be careful if still long. This thing can move on a "group think."

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:45:07 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $64.23 -1.80% ... more of a "pure play" on refiners.

Sunoco (SUN) $77.74 -5.21% ... has some of those Canadian tar sands. Some production.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:41:41 PM

I'm thinking "poof" ... how about you? Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 1:38:35 PM

The SOX has been in a long sideways coil for some time now and is approaching the top of it (downtrend line from March 2nd at about 530.85). This is also where the SOX will have two equal legs up from its April 27th low (530.09). So if it manages to make it up to the 530-531 area, watch for a potential high there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:31:26 PM

5-year Yield ($FVX.X) 5.023% ... at correlative WEEKLY R1/DAILY R1 here.

Intra-day low yield found sellers at DAILY Pivot 5.005%. Daily R1 just above at 5.044%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:29:00 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) 5.233% ... DAILY Pivot right here at 5.235%. Intra-day range bound by DAILY R1/DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:26:31 PM

Wonder what Art Cashin's clients are saying today?

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:24:37 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $68.03 +1.00% ... DAILY R2 $67.89. Buyer firm on that 12:35 PM pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:21:51 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 1:24:52 PM

For those who have followed my commentary in the Market Wraps you know that I've been eyeing DOW 11464 for quite some time now as a potential target for a market high. This number is based on Gann (from the Gann Wheel which shows 11464 to be 360 degrees from its 10156 low in October 2005. These price levels off the Gann Wheel have an uncanny ability to call the turns (it's Fibonacci based).

There's also a Fib target at 11464 which is based on a projection off the moves since that October low--it marks where we have two equal legs up (the first leg was to the November high and the 2nd leg up is from the January low. The fact that the Fib level and Gann level are right on top of each other lends credence to the idea that this could be an important level. Link

The DOW's high so far today is 11463. I report, you decide what you want to do here. If it manages to rally higher though, that's when the all-time high at 11750 comes into play for this month.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 1:20:34 PM

Markets are climbing at the same time the TRIN is climbing. THis is not healthy.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:14:39 PM

ES traders ... with energy under pressure today, it might be a wise thing to keep a very close eye on the BIX.X. Yield curve is compressed today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:06:44 PM

Jane ... are you still long oil?

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:05:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 1:00:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ... Sector association to the far right.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 12:49:43 PM

TRIN is telling us something. But only about 1, 2 and 3-lettered stock symbols on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 12:44:20 PM

Dow 30 Components at this Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 12:23:07 PM

ES is dropping back down below the downtrend line from May 1st that it broke above this morning (currently at 1315.75). YM is once again testing the area at the top of its triangle pattern. It needs to break below 11460 and hold below in order to confirm something bearish could be starting.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 12:20:55 PM

Maybe the TRIN was telling us something. AD line and volume are both dropping along with the markets.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 12:02:08 PM

On the other hand the TRIN to new daily highs does not.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 12:01:40 PM

The kind of consolidation I am now seeing tells me we are setting up for higher highs. The AD line and volume support this bullishness.

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 11:51:09 AM

I just received a comment on pivots from a reader (thanks Al) who swears by the daily pivots based on the cash; in other words on the RTH instead of the 24-hour prices. I think this is why Jeff is testing the different pivots. By the way, Al also commented on the gross errors in QCharts' pivots for ER so be careful if you're using those. My tables are of course based on 24-hour prices and they're calculated on the spreadsheet you see posted each night (let me know if you want a copy of it).

I've often thought about using the RTH prices since that's when we have the most volume and therefore more "votes" on the prices. The overnight price action can be easily manipulated. I always use cash to confirm Fib levels and trend lines. But as Marc observed, it seems the majority of futures traders use overnight prices in pivot calcs so that's what I'll continue to use in my tables.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:51:06 AM

Keep them coming! I'll tabulate and share with management.

To e-mail, click this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:43:59 AM

Market Watch reply ... Yes please spend time on trade profiles. You do great!

I take this as a "limit Market Watch" and wants more trade profiles.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:42:07 AM

Market Watch reply ... Good Morning Jeff, personally I find the market watch very helpful as you do a great job of highlighting the bullish/bearish sectors. Hope you and Drake are doing well. Check out MRVL and Medtronic for short put plays please.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:40:35 AM

Hee, hee, heeeee......

Please Jane, send me his/her name and phone #!

My brother (Pharma rep for Forrest Labs) has educated me well on Lexipro over the years.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 11:32:44 AM

I can suggest a good one Jeff (GRIN).

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 11:32:39 AM

Only after today Jeff? I think I need therapy to explain my willingness to watch this market day in and day out (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:35:12 AM

Keene ... I'll send you an e-mail regarding your 11:13:57.

After today, I may need to begin seeking psychiatric therapy. (grin)

However, if it is best for subscribers, then I'm all for it!

Michael did e-mail me about this last Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:27:34 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 11:24:28 AM

In addition to the daily R2 for YM that Jeff mentioned (11494), we have monthly R1 at 11488. In addition to those levels, I had commented earlier about two equal legs up from the low on May 1st which was at 11492. We often see reversals after these "measured" moves so the 11490 area could prove to be important resistance today. On the other hand if that resistance level breaks we could get quite a rally.

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 11:13:57 AM

Jeff, does it make sense to you that I make my commentary on the Market Monitor side instead of the Futures Monitor? We briefly discussed this while you were on vacation and the consensus (100% of respondents) from readers was that it made sense for us to all post on the same side. We've now blended our commentary on futures, options, indices, stocks, commodities, bonds, etc. and it seems to make sense for readers to see all commentary in one place rather than flipping back and forth.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:12:21 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link ... After this morning's thoughts from Jane and Keene, I'm wondering if I should free up some of my time and allow for more trade profiles and drop the U.S. Market Watch Updates?

Let me know if you (the subscriber) do, or do not use this data intra-day, or find it useful.

Place the term "sector importance" in the subject line of your e-mail please.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 11:10:05 AM

TICKS range so far today has been -217 to +989, which is a bullish range.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 11:07:58 AM

VIX is now probing its daily highs putting a downward pressure on the S&P futures. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:04:25 AM

YM 11,471 ... that little pullback came to 11,461.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 11:03:21 AM

YM comparison (update) found at this Link

QCharts is using intra-day, or regular session data (see upper chart).

What do you think?

I do like the way Keene's DAILY R2 provided that "zone of resistance" to short from, using the Nat. Gas. Inventory "event" and top-10 weighting XOM to bring the trade together.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:58:29 AM

Grrr... YM 11,462

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:54:12 AM

YM exit alert 11,475

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:51:51 AM

YM 11,471

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:51:33 AM

TRIN 11,471

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 10:50:29 AM

Gold has just made a new 25 year high at 679.90. Will this market ever slow down.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 10:47:50 AM

THese are telling me it is not time to be short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:44:18 AM

YM 11,471

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:43:32 AM

Keene ... excellent thoughts.

I would appreciate any help with trade profiles (entry, stop and target).

We are here to make money for traders.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:40:41 AM

YM 11,475 ....

XOM $64.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:34:38 AM

XOM $64.15 +0.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:33:38 AM

YM lower stop alert ... to 11,491.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:32:01 AM

EIA Nat. Gas Inventory Table found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 10:31:57 AM

When you trade futures, which for most of us is day trading, you need to concern yourself with the index you're trading. What individual stocks might be doing is of no concern to me other than to help explain why it might be moving in a certain direction. Otherwise I trade the index off its own support and resistance or Fib levels.

Keene Little : 5/4/2006 10:30:07 AM

Jeff, I'll jump in on this conversation if you don't mind--I look at some individual stocks, or sectors, to see why an index might be moving but it doesn't change how I trade the index. I trade it strictly off its own chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:27:54 AM

Yes ... me and 100% of the worlds institutional money management firms.

Tab Gilles : 5/4/2006 10:23:06 AM

Novartis (NVS) Novartis awarded up to USD 220 million by US Department of Health and Human Services for development of cell culture-derived influenza vaccine Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 10:22:09 AM

So they are YOUR convictions. YOU believe strongly what a trader needs to do. That means I need to as well?

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:19:49 AM

YM 11,484

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:19:34 AM

TRIN 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:19:12 AM

Jane ... no issues. I have convictions. I believe strongly that a trader needs some idea of what comprises the index they are trading. What makes it move.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 10:13:52 AM

Jeff if you have issues let's not address them here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:13:42 AM

YM short entry alert 11,486, stop 11,500, target 11,462

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:11:13 AM

Jane ... I thought you traded the ER? Have you been pulling our leg? Or Jane ... do you feel that it does not matter what comprises and index. What makes it move? Please answer here in the MM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:09:23 AM

EIA Nat. Gas reports due out at 10:30 AM EDT

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:07:32 AM

OI Newsletter Plays at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 10:06:38 AM

TICKS hit a high of +989 and are now retreating.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:04:59 AM

YM ... on fire 11,485

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 10:04:55 AM

No have you?

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 10:03:57 AM

I wouldn't be short here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:03:54 AM

Jane ... did you ever track down the various industry weightings for the RUT.X ?

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 10:02:44 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2006 10:02:13 AM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:54:23 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:45:53 AM

ICE $69.63 -0.72% ... opening tick came down to $69.00 and probably got a "hard stop" that was sitting there (this stock trades somewhat thin). Decided to capture gain with energy prices lower. Protect the gain.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:43:19 AM

Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $68.19 +9.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:39:37 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $78.76 -3.97% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:35:50 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,312.04 ... YM 11,470

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:34:32 AM

Bullish swing trade exit alert ... for ICE $69.35

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:30:29 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.52 and set for program selling at $+3.28.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 today is $4.52.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2006 9:27:47 AM

YM comparison (update) found at this Link

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