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OI Technical Staff : 5/5/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 8:53:51 PM

Berkshire Hathaway to Buy 80% take of Iscar Metalworking ... DJ- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA) agreed to buy 80% of the shares of Iscar Matalworking Cos., a private Israeli company, for $5 billion.

The Omaha, Neb., holding company said the Wertheimer family, Iscar's current shareholders, will own the remaining 20%.

Iscar will retain its current management, including Chairman Eitan Wertheimer and President and Chief Executive Jacob Harpaz, as well as the rest of its current worldwide management. It will remain headquartered in Tefen, Israel.

Iscar operates metal cutting tools businesses through its Iscar, TaeguTec, Ingersoll and other group companies.

Speculation had been growing over a new acquisition for Berkshire, given its cash pile of $45 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 8:48:52 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Swing traded long 1/2 position in shares of TD Ameritrade (AMTD) at the offer of $19.11. Stop is currently $18.50 and targeting $20.25.

Swing trade two (2) of the S&P 100 OEX May 610 Calls (OEY-EB) at $1.20. No stop, targeting 615.

Weekly Blotter of CLOSED Trades at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 8:06:57 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 4:14:32 PM

YM ticking 11,598

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 4:14:01 PM

Well ... I simply wasn't ready/prepared to trade the YM this morning and that frustrates me as it had a very strong trend day. Dow breadth finished 28:1:1

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 4:10:48 PM

Sell program premium

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 4:08:53 PM

YM long cancel order alert ... YM 11,598

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 3:48:26 PM

ICE man!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 3:46:02 PM

Target is derive from my "5-MRT"

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 3:44:31 PM

YM long entry setup alert lets look to go long 2 contract if the YM trades 11,609. Stop will go 11,598 and target 11,625.

YM is 11,602 here.

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 3:39:29 PM

Dow made an all time high in January 2000 at 11749. Today's high so far is 11586 only 163 points away. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 3:28:15 PM

03:05 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/5/2006 3:24:48 PM

Home Depot (HD) $41.38 +$1.12 (+2.73%) Ascending Triangle Chart Pattern. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 3:09:08 PM

How are those volumes running in the energy futures Marc?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 3:08:30 PM

ICE alert $71.60 +3.76% ... trading WEEKLY 38.2% retracement. So long polar bears

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 3:07:15 PM

03:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 3:01:37 PM

OEX ... If I were to forecast a session high and close of 604 and this week's low ... next week's WEEKLY Pivot Levels .... 589.00, 596.50, Piv= 600.25 607.75, 611.50.

Seeing any PUT SELLING conviction at the 600 strike?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:53:30 PM

How are those volume observations at the NYSE and NASDAQ running. Generate some commissions for AMTD!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:52:49 PM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $19.34 +2.87% .... has cleared DAILY R2. WEEKLY 38.2% to the close?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:51:53 PM

XBD.X ... best levels of the session. Sets up for test of Weekly R1 (236.28)

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:48:03 PM

Now I'm looking at $1.30 x $1.50 .... so much for that!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:47:27 PM

What I did was cancel my bid of $1.15. What can sometimes happen is when you do that, the "computer" at the offer will drop (it did to $1.20) and you can get a better fill.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:45:32 PM

messing around if your watching levell II on the OEY-EB

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:43:39 PM

Folks ... I received several e-mails that you want more trades.

I assure you. I do NOT TRADE just to create profiles. I trade to try and MAKE MONEY!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:42:34 PM

I see some traded $1.20. I'm take the offer here at $1.20 so trade is covered in my MM Profiles.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:41:11 PM

Or should I say ... I'll sit the bid for a bit ... :(

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:40:46 PM

Sun of a gun .... when I profiled those OEY-EB I was showing $1.05 x $1.15. I didn't see a fill and now I have $1.15 x $1.25.

Let's sit the bid for a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:35:47 PM

Swing trade call option alert .. for two (2) of the OEX May $610 Calls (OEY-EB) at the offer of $1.15.

OEX 602.39 +0.95%

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:31:30 PM

A bund of "bull heads" from StockTrader's Almanac next week too!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:28:50 PM

Pricing out some OEX calls per Leigh's Trader's Corner Article ... Link

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 2:28:36 PM

Of course you have these two that should keep you away from shorting this very bullish market. Link

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 2:26:05 PM

ES makes another new daily high without a confirmation from the VIX or the TRIN. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:23:45 PM

Good gravy! SPY busting the move above that neckline!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:22:58 PM

Check the b/a spread on SPOR ... $5.61 x $5.85. That's $0.24

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:16:37 PM

Sport-Haley (SPOR) $5.64 -0.17% ... just a reminder for anyone that has followed my bullish commentary on this very thinly traded small cap.

Today's close is the record date for the recently approved cash dividend of $0.25 per share. The company has said the dividend will be distributed to shareholders by not later than May 19.

This is not a profiled trade as it is way too thinly traded.

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 2:13:55 PM

Dateline CNN CIA Director Porter Goss has resigned, senior Bush administration official tells wire services.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 2:07:25 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

For those new to the MM and trading my profiles. I utilize risk management when running my MM Profiles and try to create a portfolio with the thought in my that a subscriber buys/sells every trade I profile.

I've also taken into consideration that some traders may be trading "smaller" and "larger" total account sizes.

So, in order to create an envrionment where all can participate I trade here as if I'm trading a $10,000-$25,000 account, which is a nice round number.

The RISK managment is when I specifically post "half position" or "1/4 position", or "3/4 position."

It is somewhat complex to try and run a hypothetical account "total value" that fits everyone's trades size.

Today's "1/2 position" in AMTD .... All I'm doing is assuming $10,000 is a "full position" and I cut that in half to $5,000.00. I then take that $5,000 and divide it by the price benchmark of the stock I've profiled. $5000 / $19.11 = 261.64 shares. This method might then have a trader buying 261 shares (I round down).

Now .... let's take RISK management a step further with options. Options are a derivative that was created for the PURPOSE of RISK management. Where option traders can get into trouble is that they overleverage in just one trade, something happens overnight and the trade moves against them, and their account goes "poof."

I learned a long time ago that I can still say ... You know what? I like the trade and would like some bullish exposure to an equivalent 261 shares of AMTD, but I don't want to tie up $5,000.00. So, I'm not going to buy $5000.00 of options (thats overleveraged for a $10-$25 K account) so buy buying 2, maybe 3 options, I get the exposure of 200-300 shares.

Jeff's given me a target that I think makes sense for the time duration I'm buying, I've priced out the options, and I either like/or don't like the option-side of the trade.

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 1:48:24 PM

I have put a linear marker on ES's new daily high at 12:20 to see how it lined up to the TRIN and VIX. A confirmation of that daily high would be a new daily low in at least the VIX and hopefully the TRIN. But that did not happen so based on this analysis I think the daily highs are in. That doesn't mean the market will fall but will move sideways. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:33:23 PM

Thanks Jane ... I scrolled back lower and at 11:39 it was 1186/473. I also pull up a chart of the RUT.X and at about 11:40 its price was 781.88.

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 1:32:21 PM

Link Link Link

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 1:30:14 PM

McMillan's weekly commentary The market remains range-bound and the epitome of 'no follow-through.' This week was a classic example. The market was stable on Monday, until Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that the market had made too bullish of an interpretation of his statements last week. That caused the market to sell off sharply on Monday. But then it rallied on Tuesday, after some strong buying Asian markets on Monday night. In fact, that night $SPX closed at a new multi-year high of 1313. However, Wednesday saw another decline, as the market couldn't follow-through on Wednesday's strong finish. Finally, Thursday saw another rally,albeit not back to new highs.

On the very near term, $SPX has not closed above 1313 nor below 1302 in nearly 3 weeks. Taking a slightly longer-term view, $SPX except for 4 days in mid-April -- has been contained within a range of 1294 - 1318, intraday, since mid-March. That is an extremely long time to have gone 'nowhere,' and it certainly explains why $VIX is so low. Speaking of $VIX, it has edged up a little from its recent lows, but continues to hover near 12 -- not exactly a clear signal in either direction. Earlier in the week, it had risen, and there was some speculation that it might be registering a sell signal in advance of Friday's Unemployment Report, but that did not pan out.

Technically, both equity-only put-call ratios are now on sell signals, although both wavered some on Thursday. The standard ratio (Figure 2) was the latter of the two to confirm a sell signal, but it is really just locked in a narrowing range, and is probably not interpretive until it breaks out one way or the other. An upside breakout by the put-call ratio would be a sell signal for the broad market, while a downside breakout would be bullish for the broad market.

Finally, breadth has been rather mediocre. In general, breadth has not been particularly predictive for quite some time now, as it flops back and forth with the wavering whims of the market.

We continue to view the broad market as being trapped within its range -- either the horizontal range outlined in blue in Figure 1 or the slowly rising range outlined in red.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:25:06 PM

There really are "two markets" aren't there?

NYSE up 1.67% last 5-days

NASDAQ up a more modest 0.62%

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:23:44 PM

SPX NH/NL bulding to 52:3 ... now is when I'd really like to know what the NYSE and NASDAQ NH/NL indication were while I was on vacation. Is the bullish leadership confirming price?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:22:23 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 1:21:48 PM

$Rut AD line 1201/471

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:12:45 PM

House that a/d line on the RUT.X looking Jane?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:12:16 PM

Watch your TRIN/TRINQ in here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:08:32 PM

While I'm working on the 01:05 internals ... think about the SUN option montage. Then think about the MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:07:38 PM

01:05 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 1:04:09 PM

SUN Option Montage at this Link ... Option montage analysis is as much an art as it can be a science.

I like to start with the Question WHY isn't the market doing this or that.

For instance. Let's pretend we're LONG the SUN-QP. We've been following the OI with some intra-day update and CLOSING reviews since trading bearish with the NAKED call.

Up until yesterday, the stock was always above my entry point (benchmark stock price) yet OI is stead and building at the $80 puts strike.

The "art" side of me, and understanding of Max Pain theory, which is mathematical "science" has the option montage wanting to inflict "pain" on a complacent PUT BUYER.

Now on an intra-day basis, I like to just take a note at what the CALL side is doing. We get the BEARISH look of some sell-side influence at the $85 strike. Not heavy volume.

The $80 strike. See the buy-side influence?

More in a moment ....

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 12:49:58 PM

Have you looked at the SUN Option Montage today? I'm looking at it now. What did YOU think about the action at the May $80 Put?

As a near-term bear on this refiner, I really wanted to see more volume at that heavy open interest.

As of last night's close, I show 11,735 OI. So far today my QCharts shows just 111 contracts traded on the May $80 Puts.

Now I look over at the CALL side of things. We're getting some $85 Call OI build. Now at 5,502 OI (as of last night's close.

Still gives me a $82.50-ish "Max Pain" look.

What do you think? Ask yourself for you own account .... Do I just buy back at the offer of $0.35 and rest easy without a NAKED position in my account, or do I take the time, maintain some loss of equity "buying power" in the account and follow the position looking for it to go poof?

Depending on your account size, a trader may answer the question above differently.

I'm going to stick with the trade, but if given a shot at buying back at a $0.10 offer the next couple of days, close it out and move on.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 12:38:12 PM

TD Ameritrade (AMTD) quick snapshot ... 10-minute interval with QCharts' DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot Levels. I slap on a MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... Check out different time intervals. I just had a 10-minute on my screen to get the retracement on.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 12:19:39 PM

Tab Gilles is a loyal follower of Mr. Buffett. Maybe Tab will remember something, a tidbit that Mr. Buffett had mentioned in the past, about a particular "out of favor" insurer that trades at wonderful value.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 12:14:51 PM

Might check the IUX.X components and see if their is any unusual action. Option chains too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 12:13:51 PM

BUFFETT MAY BE BUYING WITH $45B IN CASH DJ- Investors and Wall Street denizens are buzzing over speculation that Warren Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, will announce a major new acquisition at its annual meeting this weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 12:10:28 PM

EL PASO UP AS NET TRIPLES ON HEDGES DJ - Pipeline and natural-gas concerns' shares climb 9% after it reports 1Q net income of $356 million, or 49c a share, which includes 14c gain and 3c loss from discontinued operations. Analysts expected earnings of 27c. Revenue jumps 41% to $1.53 billion.

EP $14.71 +9.04% ... a name MM traders should recognize.

I've said before and I'll say it again. An energy company's most valued employee is their futures trader.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 12:08:27 PM

News ... Brazil's Real Hits 5-year High on Lower U.S. Treasury Yields.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:58:43 AM

Alert ... for my 11:54:17 post. If I were to go back and enter the word "alert" in the post (which rings the bell for your MM) then the time stamp changes and may not match the price.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:55:30 AM

Let's try and little "market, sector, stock" scenario.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:54:17 AM

Swing trade long a half position in TD Ameritrade (AMTD) $19.11 +1.64% here, stop $18.50, target $20.25.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:52:33 AM

Check out the RUT.X Link and the XBD.X Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:50:00 AM

Indeed it is Jane! XBD.X is a rock'n, and so are the banks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:46:42 AM

Investertech must also discriminate between ferrous metals and nonferrous metals with their sector data, not unlike Dorsey/Wright and associates' sector bullish percents.

Dorsey's METAls bullish % encompasses more stocks that 31. I think 50 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:41:35 AM

My first thought was ... Metal/Mining 10:4 with HUI.X -0.72%. But then I see Gold/Silver 13:16 .

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 11:39:21 AM

$RUT ad line is bullish 1186/473.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:38:00 AM

See anything here that "doesn't make sense" with the U.S. Market Watch?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:37:26 AM

Micro Sector Internals from Investertech Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:31:31 AM

And Lowes (LOW) $64.82 +3.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:30:41 AM

In the scope of what might be at play ragarding future Fed policy and today's jobs data. What do you think is driving HD +2.18%?

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:26:32 AM

If you've never seen a bear's eyes pop open with some fear at the sight of a determined inchworm that wants to climb up the very same tree, these NH/NL measures create the picture.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:22:28 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link .... Note: SPX NH/NL 47:1

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:04:05 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 11:00:58 AM

YM ... WEEKLY R2/MONTHLY 19.1% retracement overlap. YM traders following Jane and my comments from a couple of days ago regarding "inverse h/s pattern" ... this is also that price/patter objective.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:59:18 AM

YM 11,548 +0.71% ... oh my!

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:57:56 AM

HD-FH are $1.80 x 1.85 now. Looking good from 05/02/06 profile.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:55:15 AM

Home Depot (HD) PnF chart Link

HD bar chart Link

Stock has shown ability to bust a move from congestion lows when it get above 21-day SMA. Bullish MACD setup here. RSI well poised.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:50:41 AM

Home Depot (HD) alert $40.75 +1.21% ... sets up for re-test of MONTHLY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:49:32 AM

S&P Insurance ($IUX.X) 362.90 -0.01% ... slips red.

SOX -0.02%, NWX.X -0.10%, XTC.X -0.22%, IUX.X -0.01%, HUI.X -1.11%

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:45:55 AM

Software Sector Status Change alert Yesterday's action saw Dorsey/Wright and Associates' Software sector bullish % reverse back lower to "bear confirmed" from "bull alert" status.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:35:37 AM

Toll Brothers (TOL) $30.06 +1.41% Link ... Said earlier this morning Q2 signed contracts fell 29%. AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:32:34 AM

Telecom, Networkers, Semiconductors fractional red.

Gold Bugs (HUI.X) -1.34% ... everying else green.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:30:41 AM

SOX.X 526.39 -0.08% ... slips red.

Intel (INTC) $19.39 +0.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:27:04 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:15:24 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:11:24 AM

YM was 11,524 ....

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:11:00 AM

Sell Program Premium SPX 1,318.17

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 10:05:13 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 9:54:09 AM

But I will be looking to buy the YM at 11,524 if the setup comes together.

Jeff Bailey : 5/5/2006 9:53:25 AM

I can't.... I just cant. YM 11,526

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 9:49:51 AM

Don't even think short here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 9:37:22 AM

The bullishness in the AD line and volume is confirmed by both a TRIN and VIX below their previous day ranges.

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 9:35:53 AM

AD line is +1309 and AD volume is above 0 so the bulls have control today.

Jane Fox : 5/5/2006 9:00:35 AM

Dateline WSJ U.S. employment expanded at its slowest pace since October during April, suggesting that economic activity waned a bit heading into the second quarter.

Yet overall labor market conditions remain generally sound, with unemployment still near five-year lows and average hourly wages up at their fastest annual pace in almost five years, which could put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls climbed 138,000 last month after rising by 200,000 in March and 200,000 in February, both downwardly revised, the Labor Department said Friday. Previous estimates showed a 211,000-job increase in March and a 225,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.7% last month.

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