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Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:36:21 AM

Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:55:26 PM

I'm done posting for the most part this evening. I'm going to go grab a bite to eat, but I'll have the Index Pivot Matrix posted before tomorrow's opening bell.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:52:06 PM

Sunoco (SUN) ... 60-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:32:03 PM

Let's move on to Holly Corp. (HOC) ... In the OEX.X chart I say ... "Oh... the.... PAIN." Just like a bear would say as no overhead resistance can be determined and the leap frogging begins.

Tomorrow morning at 10:30 is EIA. Pain or pleasure for the HOC $80 Puts?

HOC closed below its DAILY Pivot, WEEKLY R2, MONTHLY R1. There's "hope" at this point. However, if HOC gets much above DAILY R1 (82.06) AFTER the EIA data, "hope is gone."

HOC 60-minute interval chart at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/9/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:00:13 PM

Now ... I (Jeff Bailey) consider my MM Profile of two (2) OEX.X May 610 Calls OEY-EB as relatively "low risk." 200 x $1.20= $2.40.

10 contracts? "More risky."

50 contracts? "Crazy like a fox RISKY"

Let's face it. We can run 20 different PRICE/volatility analysis studies, and might be able to hit on (at this OEX price, the OEY-EB will be trading $X.XX), but that's the "problem" with an out the money call at this point. As of tonight's close, the OEY-EB's Implied Volatility is 8.87.

The 605 call implied volatility (after a quiet OEX session) is 9.19.

Now, I did run some "STOP" on the option numbers, and really, I don't think we can go tighter than $0.60 to give the option the room it may need if we're ever to still be long at 611.50, or 615.

But when you review the MM Stock Pivot Matrix and you're getting the feel for how stocks and indices trade within a matrix, you (I) can look at the OEX's DAILY S2 and WEEKLY Pivot correlation and begin to make some assumptions.

Now ... 611.50/615 isn't necessarily a TARGET for tomorrow, but I would think that after the EIA data and EVEN the FOMC, you (I) don't want to see/find the OEX much below that correlation.

For the OEX to have closed ABOVE its MONTHLY R1, that has upside to what? WEEKLY R1, MONTHLY R2 and WEEKLY R2.

Should the OEX start making way higher to 611.50/615, I would think at each level of OEX Pivot Matrix, as OEX gets closer to strike of 610, we might see implied volatility RISE (605's are IV=9.19) Does ANYONE rebember the time we had with those OEX 585 NAKED CALLS (OEB-BQ) back in February? Hopefully, the 610 will be somebody's elses NAKED call problem in the near future! Yes! Similar Open Interest. Surely 615 Call is "Max Pain" as it was 585 back in February.

Here's a 60-minute interval chart of the OEX Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 9:00:10 PM

Let's tackle the OEX ... In last night's Market Wrap, I showed "my version" of the OEX's reverse head/shoulder pattern Link . A little more "conservative" objective than the chart from Leigh Stevens' "Trader's Corner" Link from 05/03/06.

So... "Max" TARGETS can be viewed as 611.50/615 with 8 days until MAY expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 8:47:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity ... After updating the MM Stock Pivot Matrix (see 07:31:32 post) I "fine tuned" some stops for traders. BIG day tomorrow. EIA at 10:30 and FOMC in the afternoon.

HOC and OEX.X are the two trades of focus here in a bit. Questions regarding OEX via e-mail (targets/strategy) will be discussed in a minute. I think an OPTION trader needs to "give some room" tomorrow morning, then depending on MARKET action, we'll make some adjustments, but based largely on Pivot levels, zones, etc.

Today I day traded short the YM just after trade of DAILY R2. Went YM short at 11,645 with a target of 11,620 (stop 11,654). Could do no better than 11,633 and ended up stopping out at 11,645. (0.00)

Day traded YM long at 11,647 with target of 11,680 (stop 11,631). Snugged the stop a little too tight toward the close and was hit at 11,654. (+7 points, or $35/contract).

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 7:31:32 PM

MM Stock Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 6:35:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 6:23:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 6:09:24 PM


DJ- Acquisition of EnerBank, who makes home-improvement loans to consumers through contractors who do remodeling work, gives Home Depot another revenue stream and solidifies its relationship with contractors. Financial terms of the pact not disclosed.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 6:05:34 PM

Sohu.com (SOHU) $28.60 +0.81% Link ... thin tick to $29.14 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 6:05:15 PM

Good gravy! Baidum.com (BIDU) $61.38 -3.59% Link ... surges to $61.38 extended.

BAIDU.COM 1Q PROFIT SOARS; SHARES UP DJ- Shares rise 14% in late trade as China-based Internet search company posts net earnings of $4.4 million, or 13c a share, on revenue of $16.9 million. Excluding items, profit comes to 16c a share. Analysts expected EPS of 12c on revenue of $15 million.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:59:04 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $21.68 -0.36% ... traded as high as $22.93, but now $21.39 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:40:09 PM

I didn't know Keene was looking long the YM this morning. At the DAILY Pivot no less!

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:20:36 PM

MM post at 11:10:39 ... TRINQ did dip didn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:19:12 PM

Somebody "flipped the buy switch" on GOOG $408.80 +3.55% this morning at 11:10 AM EDT at around $396.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:35:26 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $7.49 +2.88% Link ... today's trade at $7.50 gets a 3-box reversal.

Closes above it 200-day SMA Link ... let's get some volume building you shorts! Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:23:25 PM

Disney (DIS) $29.58 +2.81% ... still halted.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $27.09, $28.08, Piv= $28.61, $29.60, $30.13

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:21:03 PM

Disney (DIS) DJ- 2Q EPS 37c Vs 31c

2Q Net $733M Vs $657M, +12%

2Q Rev $8.03B Vs $7.83B, +2.5%

DIS 2Q Earnings Alert: First Call 31c

First Call EPS estimates can reflect either net income, operating income, or funds from operations.

The company's earnings figure is on a diluted basis. First Call assumes earnings estimates from analysts are on a diluted basis.

Disney 2Q Media Networks Rev $3.55B Vs $3.01B

Disney 2Q Parks, Resorts Studio Rev $2.25B Vs $2.1B

Disney 2Q Studio Entertain Rev $1.77B Vs $2.26B

Disney 2Q Cable Network Rev Increases To $809M On ESPN Growth

Jane Fox : 5/9/2006 4:18:12 PM

Tomorrow we have the granddaddy of all reports:
2:15p.m. Federal Open Markets Committee announcement

Jane Fox : 5/9/2006 4:17:20 PM

Cisco posts profit of $1.4 billion as revenue jumps 18%, buoyed by the purchase of Scientific-Atlanta

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:11:10 PM

Disney (DIS) $29.58 +2.81% ... Halt alert (earnings)

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:10:25 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $21.68 -0.36% ... surging on headlines $22.63 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:06:46 PM

YM 11,671 ... no way... no way 11,680

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:06:22 PM


Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:05:46 PM

YM 11,667 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:01:46 PM

That's not a very nice number.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:01:21 PM

YM 11,660 after another umph to 11,666.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:52:38 PM

YM long exit alert 11,654

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:46:32 PM

YM raise bullish stop alert to 11,654.

Not holding overnight, but not leaving without some type of gain today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:44:58 PM

Tax Bill Seeks to Resolve EU Challenge to 2004 Bill

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:44:23 PM

Proposed US Tax-Cut Bill to Alter 2004 Mfg Benefit

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:42:58 PM

YM 11,658 ... dragging up "dynamic" and fitting at those 5-minute afternoon closes at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:35:31 PM

YM 11,655 ... best levels of the session.

Taking my "dynamic" and placing its 50% at that 11,637 set of afternoon 5-minute closes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:23:27 PM

YM long raise stop alert ... to 11,639.

still no 5-minute interval close above that DAILY R2. Afternoon high was 11,653.

YM 11,646 here. +40 points. 40, 40, 40. Keeps showing up. That's the most gain I've gotten from an open to close profile.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:20:09 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link ... more NYSE "unchanged" are moving, but to both the a and the d.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:06:59 PM

YM hasn't been able to hold a 5-minute close above DAILY R2 all day. If it can, that can show some conviction among buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:05:51 PM

YM 11,652 ... will it hold?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:04:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:47:31 PM

YM long entry alert 11,467, stop goes 11,631, with a euphoria "I don't want to be short" target of 11,680.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:45:58 PM

YM long entry alert ... lets look long the YM on a trade at 11,647.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:43:25 PM

Dow 30 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:40:23 PM

YM bearish stop alert 11,645

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:33:19 PM

11,640 ... "doji bulls" defend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:32:52 PM

5-minute interval "doji" from 01:55-02:00. Its low was 11,633. Maybe bring in some "doji sellers" if we can nudge below that?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:31:31 PM

Day trader tension there

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:31:14 PM

YM 11,638 ... check out 5-minute and MACD along with 21 and 50 SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:29:45 PM

MMM -0.65%, BA +0.30%, IBM -0.09%, CAT +0.81%, MO +0.09% ... "thorax" is all green except for HON -0.02%.

HD +0.82% fades a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:28:27 PM

You can see it ... I don't need to be doing the play-by-play.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:27:40 PM

YM 11,642 ... "pop" high came to 11,644.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:21:25 PM

YM 11,642 ... what took about 30-minute to get on the downside went "poof" last 2 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:19:39 PM

Doh! YM 11,643 ... little jump here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:13:34 PM

Holly Corp (HOC) $80.94 -1.05% ... been keeping an eye on it. High/Low $82.25/$80.00.

HOC-QP showed bid of $1.10 today, but I have low/high of $1.40 x $1.80.

Might have been a buyer of 10 (came at the offer) earlier today at $1.75. Hard to tell ... AMEX has looked like a seller of these puts all day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:10:17 PM

OEX ... 602.86 (unch) ...

BIX.X +0.02%, BKX.X -0.07%, XBD -0.05%, IUX.X (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:07:47 PM

YM ... now check out you 5-minute interval. 50-pd in play? 21-pd has "rolled over" at 11,642.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:06:25 PM

MO first time green at a benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:06:11 PM

MMM -0.66%, BA +0.29%, IBM -0.10%, CAT +0.72%, MO +0.10%

YM 11,638 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 2:01:20 PM

Some "crazy" is buying UTSI Jan08 $10 Calls today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:57:19 PM

YM short stop/target update alert ... lower stop further to 11,645 (break even) and target is 11,626.

YM 11,635

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:48:31 PM

Volume is pretty dry.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:48:01 PM

YM ... 11,636 ... I think I'm too bearish with my 11,620 target after slapping that "dynamic" (pink) retracement on the YM.

Let's look to cover the YM short back at DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:44:42 PM

YM 2-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:25:25 PM

Day trade lower stop alert ... on the YM 11,644 .... to 11,652.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:24:07 PM

HD is in the "thorax" of the INDU.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:22:48 PM

Home Depot (HD) $41.46 +1.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:22:20 PM

UTStarcom (UTSI) $7.58 +4.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:21:33 PM

Oh goodness! Do you see what I see?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:15:13 PM

Hmmm... NYSE a/d NOT as bullish as I thought. How about you.

While just 30 stocks ... YM 11,645 is mostly NYSE stocks.

Nothing OVERLY bearish and NYSE a/d has improved from 11:05. Price has slipped. That's BULLISH divergence.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:12:14 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2006 1:11:25 PM

An 18 page letter from Iran's hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to President Bush only briefly sparked hopes that Tehran might be offering a way out of the nuclear standoff.

While an Iranian official characterized the letter from as containing "new solutions for getting out of international problems," it makes only a passing reference to Iran's nuclear program - referred to as "technological and scientific achievement." The letter, filled with religious references, castigates the U.S. for occupying Iraq, holding prisoners without trial in Guantanamo Bay, supporting Israel and a host of other alleged misdeeds. "Do such actions correspond to the teachings of Jesus Christ and the tenets of human rights?" the Iranian president wrote.

Privately, U.S. officials said they were baffled about why the Iranian president had decided to write this sort of letter - or why his advisers, many of whom have far more experience with the West - had allowed it to be sent. U.S. officials said they didn't expect it to affect the current diplomatic maneuvering.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2006 1:09:40 PM

$RUT AD line is 752/902 neutral with a bearish bend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:04:45 PM

I haven't looked yet. I'm thinking NYSE a/d slightly more bullish say 9:7, NASDAQ more bearish say 7:9

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:03:04 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 1:00:20 PM

Make YOUR forecast. Then if you're REALLY WRONG, you might be al_rt to something.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:59:50 PM

Here's a test coming. When I post the U.S. Market Watch, look at TRIN and TRINQ indications.

Then ... YOU make a guess at what the NYSE and NASDAQ a/d line might be. See if you're getting a feel for TRIN and TRINQ.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:58:24 PM

MMM's Daily Pivot is $87.84. session high has been $87.79.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:57:30 PM

MMM -0.49%, BA -0.01%, IBM +0.04%, CAT +0.87%, MO -0.10% ... YM 11,642 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:56:05 PM

Maybe a day trade bull that only buys the break-outs gives a little long liquidation on slip below the 21-pd?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:55:09 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link ... you "know" where day traders that are using SMAs are looking now. DAILY R1 and that rising 50-pd?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:50:15 PM

Actually ... EVERY day and EVERY trade ... "size matters." It is one method of account risk management.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:47:51 PM

YM 11,644 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:47:47 PM

These are the days when trade size does matter.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:47:42 PM

YM 11,649 ... gett'n a little green ... MMM -0.41%, BA +0.01%, IBM +0.09%, CAT +0.75%, MO -0.14%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:47:37 PM

YM 15-minute intervals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:34:03 PM

MMM -0.52%, BA +0.04%, IBM -0.07%, CAT +0.60%, MO -0.25%

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:32:18 PM

YM short entry alert just 1 at 11,645, stop above session high of 11,654 and target 11,620.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:30:08 PM

OI Newsletter Plays at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:23:33 PM

05/02 to 05/08 Sector Bell Curve at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 12:08:49 PM

Google (GOOG) $406.83 +3.03% ... according to Dorsey/Wright & Associates, yesterday's action saw the MEDIa bullish % achieve "bull confrimed" status at 46%.

GOOG ... INET (Internet), or Media stock?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:52:52 AM

ICE $77.98 -1.10% ... a couple of days ago (after we were stopped on the long) I mentioned some "crazy" was buying the May $80 Calls. Session high and all-time high today has been $80.56.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:46:37 AM

YM 11,650 ... gets the trade at DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:38:50 AM

Remember last night's high "al_rt" at WEEKLY Pivot? That was it wasn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:37:04 AM

"There's no relief in sight" ... Rick Santelli talking about the dollar's decline.

Jeff Bailey will be monitoring MONTHLY S1/WEEKLY S1 right? If computers are going to be set to do some buying, that would be the area to look for right now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:26:35 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

NH/NL measures the evening I went on vacation at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:17:32 AM

TRINQ 1.03

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:17:17 AM

Buy Program Premium OEX 603.68

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:10:39 AM

TRINQ 1.00 ... pretty quick drop from session high of 1.38.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:08:12 AM

Lost track of time!

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:07:56 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:05:19 AM

OEX 603.27 +0.05% ... no test of its DAILY R1 at this point. Session low has been 601.79.

BIX 389.01 +0.11% ... slight, and I mean slight steepening of curve.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:03:36 AM

INTC -0.99%, GM +4.58%, MSFT $23.75 +0.08%, PFE -0.03%, T +0.11% ... the "tail"

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:02:30 AM

MMM -1.05%, BA -0.27%, IBM -0.34% (not bad considering broader tech weakness), CAT +0.83%, MO -0.29%

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 11:01:38 AM

YM 11,627 ... gets the trade at DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:56:02 AM

YM 11,623 ... last night, and even more this morning I see the intra-day "max range" as being 11,587-11,648. Only strategy would be to trade some "size", very tight stop, and look for a short-term flinch to either end of the range.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:52:05 AM

dx00y (30-minute delayed) ... session lows at 84.72. There was a mention this morning that somebody (firm) mentioned dollar weakness attributed to potential Fed pause.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:49:19 AM

Sell Program Premium OEX 602.85

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:39:22 AM

Holly Corp. (HOC) $82.05 +0.30% ... starting to "feel" very short. VERY short.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:37:27 AM

YM 11,618 ....low/high has been 11,592-11,625

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:36:29 AM

MMM -1.24%, BA -0.28%, IBM -0.49%, CAT +0.83% ... do I even try to trade the YM at this point?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:17:28 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $77.56 -0.94% ... turns defensive.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2006 10:16:09 AM

DAteline WSJ Move over, Microsoft Corp. Here comes a new cash king.

Thanks to soaring oil prices and record earnings, global energy titan Exxon Mobil Corp. appears to be on track to amass a cash mountain even taller than Microsoft's. That would give Exxon, the world's biggest company by stock-market value, bragging rights to one of the largest cash piles at a nonfinancial company.

Exxon's bank still isn't as big as Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s. Neither is Microsoft's. But Berkshire boss Warren Buffett doesn't pay out dividends or repurchase stock. Had Exxon followed the same policy in the past three boom years, its cash pile would be about double that of Berkshire. Instead, Exxon these days pays out more than $2 billion a month to shareholders.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:12:00 AM

U.S. Energy Secretary ... MTBE Phase-out From Gasoline Complete

President Bush Ready to Address Congress on Ethanol Tariff.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:03:35 AM

Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.2% in March ... DJ - U.S. wholesale inventories grew less than expected in March, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio down after a slight uptick in the previous month.

Wholesalers' inventories in March increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted $366.72 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. February inventories rose 0.9%, revised from the 0.8% increase previously reported for that month.

The increase in March wholesale inventories fell short of Wall Street expectations for 0.5% growth.

The report showed wholesale sales grew 0.7% in March at $315.00 billion. That followed a 0.3% increase in February, revised from the virtually unchanged growth previously reported for that month.

The inventory-to-sales ratio - which gauges how long it would take firms to deplete current inventories - edged down to 1.16 months in March from 1.17 months in February. And it remained below the 1.20-month level of a year earlier.

Business inventories across sectors - wholesalers, manufacturers and retailers - rose by $21.9 billion in the first quarter of 2006. But that pace was below the $37.9 billion jump in stocks in the fourth quarter of 2005.

On the consumer front, retail sales in March rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, according to the Commerce Department. Sales fell 0.8% in February, following a 3.0% surge in January.

Tuesday's inventories report from Commerce showed that on a year-over-year basis, wholesale inventories were up 6.3% in March, while sales rose 9.9%.

Inventories of durable goods - meant to last three or more years - increased 0.2% in March, after rising 0.6% in February. Durable goods sales were up 0.3%, after growing 0.2% in February.

Auto inventories rose 1.0% in March, while sales in this sector fell 2.6%. Machinery inventories rose 0.6% during the month, while machinery sales grew 0.4%.

Inventories of non-durable goods climbed 0.3% in March, after ticking up 1.4% the previous month. Drug inventories were up 0.3%, while drug sales were flat for March.

Petroleum inventories were down 2.0% in March but still 25.6% above the year-earlier level. Petroleum sales were up 3.9% in March.

Non-durables sales rose 1.1% in March, after rising 0.3% the previous month. March non-durables sales were 10.7% higher than a year earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 10:02:02 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 9:49:08 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 9:38:03 AM

Program Trading Levels for Tuesday ... HL Camp & Compan has their computers set for program buying at $+4.98 and set for program selling at $+2.88.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:42:38 AM

OK, I'm out of here. See you in a couple of hours.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:41:47 AM

What MIGHT the dollar do (up/down) on Wednesday's FOMC announcement?

What MIGHT the 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X), a shorter-term measure of rates do on Wednesday's FOMC announcement.

What MIGHT the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X), an intermediate-term measure of rates do on Wednesday's FOMC announcement?

What MIGHT the 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X), a longer-term measure of rates do on Wednesday's FOMC announcement.

What has the YIELD curve been doing INTO the FOMC on Wednesday? The Fed is gathering data to make a decision.

What have, or HOW have the BANKS been trading INTO the FOMC on Wednesday? Perception, or YIELD curve response? I (Jeff Bailey) think (based on observation) that the steepening curve has given banks a "bid."

When does a YIELD curve steepen? Usually when EXPANSION (economy, inflation) is taking place.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:34:09 AM

dx00y/OEX ... 60-minute intervals with QCharts WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:21:47 AM

dx00y/YM 60-minute interval (regular sessions only) with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:09:11 AM

Are you looking for any clues as to how dollar/YM traded in relation to each other during last FOMC meeting? I am and will follow in a minute. Turn on those QCharts WEEKLY Pivot. Maybe a couple Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:07:54 AM

YM 11,608 ... up 2 from settlement of 11,606.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 5:07:29 AM

dx00y 30-minute delayed ... "fades a bit" to 85.36 as I type. Subtract 30-minute from YM right now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:33:05 AM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... At this point I am NOT thinking "dollar at weekly pivot, then YM at weekly Pivot." I am on the al_rt for a RISING dollar to perhaps PRESSURE equity bullish sentiment.

Caution at first! There may be a BUNCH of YM Bears that have been SHORTING the YM based on thought that "dollar weakness is bad for equities/equity futures."

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 4:05:00 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2006 3:55:48 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.44 (30-min delayed) after just trading WEEKLY Pivot (03:20-03:25 AM EDT) ... On Monday morning at 04:30-04:35 AM EDT the dx00y fell to 84.68.

Following with Index Pivot Matrix

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