Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:53:16 AM

Check this out (above post) ... Here's my YM trade scenario, now tie in TRIN.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:30:53 AM

The SOX.X sure didn't put up much of a bullish fight today did it? Pretty much lower from the open to close. FOMC saw little bull response.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:25:44 AM

Why did the FOMC and Mr. Snow have to release the same day? Is dollar action FOMC related or Snow related?

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:24:50 AM

Evening action may also be the NO "one and done" from FOMC?

Treasuries turned around on FOMC too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:22:30 AM

dx00y did trade the MONTHLY S1/WEEKLY S1 just prior to close of 03:00 session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:19:59 AM

dx00y has trade as high as 85.14.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:18:36 AM

YM 11,675 here ... low/high 11,665/11,677

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:17:15 AM

dx00y 84.97 (30-minute delayed) is rather active this evening. DAILY R2 at 85.01.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 2:04:57 AM

Oh! Check out OEX DAILY S1/WEEKLY Pivot correlation. Good "test" of any further support if traded tomorrow.

Example: Turn the table for a second. Did you have a PUT on the OEX for an FOMC trade (a strangle)? Wished you sold the PUT at WEEKLY Pivot, and saw option go from +80% to up 3% by the close? Sometimes the market gives you a second chance. Sometimes not.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 1:53:41 AM

Stock Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Real quick: A trader requested that I not shuffle the Stock Matrix around as he prints out the matrix each day and when I move one stock around, it is more difficult to compare with the prior day of trade. Great idea! In "PURPLE" I'll just highlight OPEN trades that I've profiled.

HD low comes right between WEEKLY Piv/MONTHLY Piv. (computer still buying)

OEX trades WEEKLY Pivot and bounces. Let's say you/I am still long the OEX, but with time running out to next Friday with an out the money call, you/I are thinking of cutting and running. OK, give it ONE more day, if OEX can't CLOSE back above MONTHLY R1 tomorrow, then sell Friday.

HOC and today's CLOSE. HOC closed above the $81.15/$81.04 correlation on Monday. Just UNDER that correlation on Tuesday, shows "weakness" today, but CLOSES above $81.15/$81.04 (Computer just aren't selling needed resistance, so close out) Remember... computers either do what they're programmed to do, or they are managing inventory. If they have stock that needs to be sold, not likely a stock should close above "key levels."

CEO low pegs WEEKLY S1 first time this week. Computers do some buying and moves back above WEEKLY Pivot (no selling?)

MUR low pegs WEEKLY S1 second time this week (Monday and Wednesday) I forgot to highlight WEEKLY R1 trade from Tuesday, but MUR did trade $52.62 on Tuesday.

SUN a little sloppy on first test of WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2006 12:47:00 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles ... closed, but will "watch" the HOC-QP and OEY-EB Link ... Let's "pretend" that you're/I'm a trader that does trade options, but doesn't use a "hard stop." Let's follow the HOC and OEX trades until Friday's expiration.

At no time should a trader that did close out one/both of these trades second guess their decision.

Have you ever held an option into expiration only to see it go from +50% to -100% in a matter of minutes? Have you ever closed an option out at $0.20 only to see it trade $2.00 an hour, or day later?

Sometimes it is helpful/educational to follow a trade to expiration.

If the HOC-QP were to trade $2.00 tomorrow, what would you do? $3.00? If it ends up $0.00 next Friday, did you do the right thing by using an "if the underlying trades here, then sell it" trade/account strategy.

The OEY-EB. Maybe I should have only bought 2 contracts instead of 10? Will I eventually feel "robbed" (but now understand volatility and options) if that options ends up trading $2.40?

If we don't follow some "old trades," or review them (profit or loss) how will we ever learn?

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:41:02 PM

VXO recap at this Link

and VXO chart Link from MM 05/10/06 12:42:42 commentary.

Now an updated 60-minute interval chart of the OEX (shown Tuesday night) at this Link

It is "tough enough" to figure out just exactly where a stock/index will find support/resistance. That's one "moving target."

Add an OPTION to the equation and its IMPLIED VOLATILITY and MARKET VOLATILITY and now a trader is dealing with an additional variable

An options market maker may be able to "manipulate" a trade, or "step off," but it isn't so easy to "push around" 100 stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:58:32 PM

Subscriber/trader reminds me, to remind YOU ... Jeff: There is a discrepancy between your IV, and mine for HOC. While you were getting 32.89, my quote was 37.4. I verified my esignal quote with ivolatility.com. If you are using qcharts, I bet your getting a bad quote.

Jeff's Reply ... I have noted before that QCharts' option "data" isn't what I would consider "the best." That is one reason I go to, or use my Ameritrade Level II for the bid/ask when profiling a trade.

Just remember folks. Even an implied volatility reading one minute, can change MARKEDLY in seconds. I use IV (QCharts' or otherwise) more as a "if the underlying trades this, assuming IV stays where it is at, then the option MIGHT be worth $XX.XX amount).

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:49:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity

Booking a loss : At Market Monitor Post Post 02:53:33 I updated my then OPEN Profiles, but at tonight's close I do see the OEY-EB did trade $0.55 on an exchange other than the CBOE. One educational point that I've made before is my personal dislike for using stops on options, but prefer to use the underlying security price action a the starting point of any buy/sell execution. What can take place during a volatile trade is option market makers can "step off" their bid/ask to mitigate there risk. In doing so, market makers may also be looking at their order book for hard stop orders and at levels of support/resistance option market makers have been known to create just 1 down tick, to trigger a book of stops at a "stepped off" and beneficial price for the options market maker. I didn't, or wasn't watching my Ameritrade Level II on the OEY-EB second-by-second, but during the roughly 45-minutes of post-FOMC volatility, it was apparent that option market makers spreads between bid/ask widened markedly.

I don't trade "hard stops" with options in my personal account (but I don't overleverage and buy/sell a number of contracts that if they go $0.00 bid overnight, or in a matter of minutes I blow up my account). Today's action is one reason. Two other reasons are 1) I'm watching my trades intra-day (because I'm here all day) and 2) Trying to determine what an options price will be at OEX 599.72 (weekly pivot) is difficult when KNOW to expect a short-term jump in VOLATILITY.

However, I did profile a stop on these OEX options per trader's request (perhaps he/she is NOT monitoring things all day. That's understandable and the MM is not just a tool for day traders). I must now book the loss and honor the $0.55 trade. Fair is fair! When a stock/option hits my profiled profit target we don't pretend it doesn't happen in our accounts. I will continue to "watch" this trade at this point and offer any further guidance/action that I will be using in my personal account.

CBOE Option Chain / Ameritrade Level II Link

Swing trade put close out the Holly Corp. HOC May $80 Put (HOC-QP) when the underlying shares traded my stop of $81.40. Bid at time of trade was $1.25.

Swing traded long a full position in shares of Valero Energy (VLO) at the offer of $65.20. Stop currently $63.90 and target of $69.00.

Today's EIA Capacity news may have been a factor as to the sudden reversal of the crack spead. I did hear one pit trader cite some type of news/report regarding an unexpected increase in unleaded demand, where perhaps some forward forecasts were based on the thought/scenario that demand was leveling off, or cooling a bit was/is under "re-think" mode.

At 02:33:43 I profiled a YM short at 11,636 (stop 11,664 / target 11,582). I did adjust the stop up to 11,667 and was stopped there. (-31 points, or $-155/contract)

Prior the the YM futures close I noted action/news in "Dow heavyweight" AIG. I profiled a YM short at 11,670, stop 11,685 and target of 11,635 (overnight). This trade will likely be closed out not long after tomorrow's morning's cash open. I'm thinking we'll see some "artificially bearish" re-weight adjustments (to account for AIG lower open) where computers may have to "basket sell" some componets at/after the cash open. One way/reason futures were "invented" was so institutions could get short-term leverage for RISK management.

OI Technical Staff : 5/10/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 9:33:12 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity

CBOE Option Chain / Ameritrade Level II Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 8:59:02 PM

Asian Markets early trade ... Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link up 66.66 points, or 0.39% at 17,018.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 8:47:10 PM

My thoughts for short YM late this afternoon (well after cash close) is that I (Jeff Bailey) am expecting some type of "weight adjustment" to take place if tonight's extended session trade in AIG holds at tomorrow's open.

Tonight's short YM is NOT based on FOMC action/comments, or Mr. Snow comments.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 8:35:23 PM

Dow Components (benchmark 05/10/06) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 8:15:48 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 7:18:23 PM

YM open alert ... 11,667

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 7:10:09 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 6:45:18 PM

Cont. Unleaded vs. Cont. WTIC relative strength chart (similar to measuring crack spread) at this Link

NYMEX settlement for June Unleaded was $2.1694

June Crude Oil $72.13

RS= 2.1694 / 72.13 = .03007 or 30.07

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 6:22:32 PM

YM short adjust target alert ... from 11,649 to 11,635

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 6:06:24 PM

YM with tomorrow's DAILY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 5:58:57 PM

YM Pivot Levels my DAILY are regular session only and to CLOSE (not settlement) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 5:48:05 PM

YM CBOT close= 11,671 and settlement 11,679.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 5:46:59 PM

YM ... how it traded today (all sessions to get AIG observation) at this Link

Action at DAILY Pivot continues to suggest YM/DIA/INDU is OVERLY Short and computers/traders eager to buy any weakness.

With no overhead supply, DO NOT BE COMPLACENT with any short, ESPECIALLY above 11,694. Stop hunting today? Perhaps, but better to get stopped there than 11,714 and next level of BEAR RISK.

I'll get an UPDATED Daily Pivot retracement for tomorrow. NOTE where YM found buyers today (BETWEEN DAILY S1/DAILY 61.8%).

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 5:15:42 PM

CBOT has not posted official close on YM. Assuming a close of 11,671 with regular session high/low of 11,702/11,628 ... DAILY Pivot Levels 11,593 , 11,632 , 11,667, 11,706 , 11,741

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 5:00:12 PM

AIG $66.54 +0.49% ... $64.00 extended.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $63.99, $64.59, Piv= $65.19, $65.79, $66.39.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:58:35 PM

AIG (earnings) World's largest insurer saying net income fell to $3.2 billion, or $1.22 a share, from $3.8 billion, or $1.45 a share, a year earlier.

Consensus $1.36.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:54:10 PM

YM short alert 11,671, stop 11,685, target 11,649.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:53:28 PM

# 6 weight in Dow alert.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:52:54 PM

AIG alert $66.54 +0.49% ... quick drop to $64.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:48:39 PM

Notes: Tax revenue important and 1/2 of equation in dealing with budget deficit.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:45:33 PM

YM 11,677

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:44:50 PM

CNBC TV Treasury Secretary John Snow speaking

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:20:55 PM

Disney (DIS) $30.11 +1.79% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:19:30 PM

News Corp. (NWS) $19.12 +0.57% ... jumps to $19.60 on earnings. (hmmm... second MEDIa name jumping on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:14:35 PM

04:09 Currencies (live) benchmark Link

As they trade at this Link (good link for your browser "favorites")

Jane Fox : 5/10/2006 4:10:20 PM

Tomorrow we have:
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For May 7 Wk. Consensus: -4K. Previous: +5K.
8:30a.m. April Retail & Food Sales. Consensus: +0.6%. Previous: +0.6%.
10a.m. March Business Inventories. Consensus: +0.6%. Previous: Unch.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:06:23 PM

dx00y 84.46 -0.43% ... (30-minute delayed) from this benchmark

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:05:06 PM

YM 11,679 benchmark

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:04:40 PM

Statement of Treasury Secretary John W. Snow on the Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:03:04 PM

Not yet posted to Dep. of Treasury website Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 4:00:57 PM

Treasury Report on Currency (released)

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:55:48 PM

VLO $65.17 +0.38% ... benchmark

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:55:15 PM

HOC alert ... $81.40

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:50:47 PM

Swing trade put close out alert for the HOC May $80 Puts (HOC-QP) at $1.25.

HOC is $81.27 with HOC-QP $1.25 X $1.45

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:45:41 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Summary Link ... may be something in here to "explain" today's energy commodity action.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:42:21 PM

QQQQ $41.62 ... two post-FOMC tests of WEEKLY S1 ($41.56) ... has been the leader of weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:40:22 PM

Dow 30 snapshot at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:34:59 PM

Fed Raises Rates; Paves Way For Eventual Pause DJ- The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates a 16th-straight time yet paved the way somewhat for an eventual pause by tweaking key language in its accompanying policy statement and referring to the lagged economic effect of previous rate hikes.

Still, faced with growing doubts on Wall Street about Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's commitment to stable prices amid signs of rising underlying inflation, policymakers also signaled they won't hesitate to raise rates further if needed and stressed the data dependency of future policy decisions.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 5%, its highest level since April 2001 and a move that was expected by all 21 primary dealer economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC.

The Fed raised the largely symbolic discount rate 25 basis points to 6%.

Officials backed further away from what markets had taken as a precommitment to raising rates. Instead, the FOMC suggested that incoming economic data will play a large role in determining future moves.

"Some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks," the FOMC said. The previous statement hadn't included the word "yet."

The Fed emphasized "that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook."

"I think it points to the fact that even if there is a pause in June, the next move is more likely higher than lower," said Jack Caffrey, equity strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank.

The Fed also, for the first time since the tightening process began in mid-2004, made explicit reference to a slower housing market and the lagged effect of previous rate hikes.

Language on the rate outlook has evolved steadily in recent months. During much of the tightening campaign that began rates at a five-decade low of 1%, the FOMC referred to removing policy "accommodation" at a "measured" pace.

Late last year, when rates approached a more economically neutral level, officials said further firming was "likely" to be needed, and by March the FOMC changed the modifier to "may be" needed.

Despite those variations, Wall Street still took each turn of phrase to mean a quarter-point rate increase at each FOMC meeting.

Yet policymakers have recently seemed uncomfortable with that interpretation. According to the minutes of the March 28 FOMC meeting, some members "expressed concern" about retaining the phrase on policy firming.

And Bernanke hinted at a change in the statement by telling Congress last month that "at some point in the future" the Fed may take no action, though that "does not preclude actions at subsequent meetings."

Wednesday's FOMC meeting was Bernanke's second since becoming Fed chairman in February.

Recent economic data, meanwhile, have been mixed on the need for more rate increases.

Growth appears to be slowing from its red-hot rate of close to 5% in the first quarter. Payrolls grew at a weaker-than-expected rate in April, while the housing market has cooled.

The FOMC noted Wednesday that "economic growth has been quite strong so far this year" though it is "likely to moderate."

But wages have accelerated with unemployment at nearly five-year lows and core inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index (the Fed's preferred gauge), has risen to the upper end of the central bank's 1%-2% comfort zone.

Though higher energy prices have had only a "modest" effect on underlying inflation and expectations "remain contained," the Fed said "possible increases in resource utilization" along with higher energy and commodity prices "have the potential to add to inflation pressures," repeating its inflation outlook from March.

In its statement, the FOMC stressed the future moves will be largely dependent on incoming data, a theme expressed regularly by Fed officials in recent weeks.

The committee repeated language from its previous statements that it "will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed" to keep growth and inflation risks in balance. It also credited productivity gains with holding labor unit costs in check.

In the Dow Jones Newswires-CNBC poll taken prior to the FOMC meeting, Fed watchers were split on whether the central bank will hold rates at 5% in June or nudge them up another quarter point to 5.25%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:32:41 PM

Google (GOOG) $403.69 -1.23% ... DJ - Google Unveils New Search Technologies

Google Unveils Google Co-Op, Google Desktop 4

Google Unveils Google Notebook, Google Trends

Google Notebook Allows Clipping Of Text, Images, Links

Google Trends Tracks Popularity Of Search Terms

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:29:18 PM

IUX.X 366.68 ... OEX 601.99 ... BIX 389.20

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:28:18 PM

Holly Corp. (HOC) $81.02 +0.22% ... session high has been $81.35.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:25:21 PM

Cont. Unlead vs. Cont. WTIC Link (as of yesterday's close) ... Right now (today) I have June unleaded $2.17 with June Crude $72.20. RS would be 30.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:20:47 PM

Swing trade long full bullish position for Valero Energy (VLO) $65.20 here, stop $63.90 to begin, target $69.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:18:31 PM

Let's do this ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:17:26 PM

Seriously considering bullish position in VLO $65.07 +0.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:14:01 PM

SPX Nh/Nl currently 37:5

Yesterday's finish was 33:6

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:13:12 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:06:36 PM

VXO 11.42

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:06:14 PM

VIX alert 12.00 DAILY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 3:03:07 PM

03:00 Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:58:12 PM

BIX 389.35 +0.11% ... waiting for a message.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:57:29 PM

TRIN alert 0.97 ... "up" from test of DAILY S1 10 minutes ago.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:53:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:47:47 PM

VXO alert 11.50 ... its crazy! Oh my! Oh my! that's all I can say.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:45:37 PM

Oh my!

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:44:40 PM

HOC $81.35 session high alert

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:44:11 PM

BIX 388.65

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:43:59 PM

OEX 602

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:43:23 PM

YM stopped alert

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:42:37 PM

YM 11,659

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:42:05 PM

DO NOT BE SHORT YM above 11,694.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:41:36 PM

YM adjust stop alert to 11,667, but that's it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:39:16 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:33:43 PM

YM short alert 11,636 here, stop 11,664, target 11,582

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:30:34 PM

Action looks BEARISH ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:28:17 PM

5-year up 2.7

30-year up 2.1. Slight curve flatten intra-day

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:27:18 PM

YIELD reversal alert

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:24:56 PM


Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:23:59 PM

Oh!... FOMC raised rates 25 bp.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:23:31 PM

Oh my! check out SPY

Tab Gilles : 5/10/2006 2:22:25 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:22:38 PM

VXO.X 11.99 ... session highs ... RISK up to 12.55

Analysis ... still more call selling/put buying than call buying/put selling.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:21:19 PM

OEX 601

OEY-EB $1.00 x $1.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:20:34 PM

AMTD $19.04 +0.10% ... on MM Profile in the green.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:19:43 PM

Buy Program Premium OEX 600.44 ... is this making sense? (pivot analysis)

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:17:57 PM

Sell Program Premium OEX 600.93

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:13:58 PM

BIX 389.04 ... pegged at DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:12:36 PM

02:10 Market Watch found at this Link benchmark prior to FOMC

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:10:28 PM

BIX alert 389.03

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:09:52 PM

VXO alert 11.85

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:06:55 PM

TRIN 1.02

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:06:45 PM

VXO.X 11.76

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:06:34 PM

OEY-EB $1.00 x $1.10

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:06:07 PM

OEX 601.42 -0.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:05:38 PM

10-minute FOMC alert

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:05:00 PM

BIX.X 5-minute interval chart at this Link

QCharts allow us to set al_rts at the levels of retracement.

BIX fading 389.42.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 2:01:04 PM

BIX DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot overlap and ability to hold (snap back BIX) has me thinking MARKET has further steepening. TEST is break above day's highs. Room to WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:59:14 PM

Bond action has the look of "one and done."

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:57:29 PM

I feel great pressure based on observations.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:53:49 PM

OEX session low here of 601.70.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:53:24 PM

PLENTY of room for a FOMC ramp higher. Watch thos banks if they make the bold move above DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:52:03 PM

5-year -3.4 bp

30-year -2.4 bp

10 year 5.096% with low/high yield of 5.081/5.121.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:50:22 PM

BIX.X 389.81 ... session low/high has been 388.36/390.39.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:41:27 PM

VLO $65.05 +0.20% ... low/high has been $63.49/$65.31

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:40:50 PM

SUN $77.77 +0.75% ... low/high has been $75.86/$77.98

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:40:01 PM

HOC 80.60 -0.29% ... after session high of, of, of $81.00.

Jane Fox : 5/10/2006 1:26:27 PM

Dateline WSJ Late this afternoon, the Treasury Department will release a long-delayed report that could tag China as a currency manipulator. Many U.S. lawmakers and manufacturers have long bemoaned Beijing's management of the yuan's value, which they say gives China an unfair, artificial advantage in selling its exports. Amid persistent jawboning from U.S. officials, China has made some tentative moves toward revaluation, including undoing its dollar peg last summer to tie the yuan's value to a broader range of currencies. But many analysts say more action is needed. Ahead of the Treasury report, the World Bank said it may be in Beijing's best interest to allow the yuan to appreciate more quickly. The bank believes China needs to allow its currency to appreciate in order to help cool an economy that grew at a searing annual rate of 10.2% in the first quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:24:16 PM

HOC $80.81 -0.03% ... probably the defining moment here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:19:06 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 1:05:18 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:58:29 PM

VLO $64.90 -0.03% ... like SUN, DAILY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:57:35 PM

SUN alert $77.65 +0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:57:03 PM

HOC alert $80.11 -0.90% ... refused to give up WEEKLY R1/DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:55:33 PM

Begin your scenario of what SHOULD happen to VXO.X based on further OEX PRICE action.

SHOULD YOU BE BUYING VXO.X (premium) just under 11.80? Or from a point of what you "know" or have learned from Pivot Analsysis trading, SHOULD YOU (the MARKET) be selling it?

Make a scenario, follow it, even if you aren't trading it. Pull the observations, follow them. Have a plan in place for execution.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:52:55 PM

You don't need to sit and watch VXO . Set your al_rts at the notably traded levels (see 12:42:42 VXO.X chart)

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:48:59 PM

I only have so much vertical room in the U.S. Market Watch. For as long as my OEX profiled trade is open, I'm going to replace VIX with VXO. Yes, it will only give us narrower view of dynamics (100 vs. 500), but I'm focusing on OEX right now.

Jane follow VIX.X like a hawk anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:46:50 PM

OEX 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:42:42 PM

Profiled OEX Option Education ... 5-minute interval chart of VXO.X with QCharts' DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot retracement levels at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:33:13 PM

OEX Option Montage (with CBOE volumes) at this Link ... In upper right I benchmark VXO.X measure and QCharts' DAILY Pivot Levels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:25:35 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ... Monitoring 5-dayNet% for June/July Crude/Unleaded crack. Hearing chatter it is somewhat created from MTBE/ethanol transition.

Still, refiner BEAR should monitor.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:07:57 PM

ICE $77.46 +0.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:07:31 PM

NASDAQ Buys More LSE Shares, Takes Stake to 24.1%

NDAQ $38.44 +0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 12:01:30 PM

Trader's Note! ... NOT every gap (up/down) gets back/up filled.

Gaps by nature are a "shock" to MARKET expectations and result from near-term re-think.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:59:48 AM

HOC now a 30-minute interval chart with QCharts' Volume at Price study turned on at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:53:03 AM

HOC 15-minute interval chart at this Link

Do you short here? No, unless my initial PUT entry point was "right on." It wasn't.

Gap traders will note today's influence of MONTHLY 38.2% and tie that with a day trader's target of MONTHLY Pivot.

Supply/demand dynamic an break much below WEEKLY R1 should have some NEW BULL money from 05/08-5/09 running for exit.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:46:34 AM

Pretty good day trade short setup unfolds in HOC ... you see it? How is it trading relative to MONTHLY Pivot retracement?

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:43:20 AM

Swing trade put adjust stop alert ... Let's lower our stop on the Holly Corp HOC May $80 Put (HOC-QP) to $81.40 on the underlying shares.

HOC $79.05 -2.21% ... Let's use what we learned from the SUN NAKED call trade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:39:04 AM

CNBC Survey: April Retail Sales Seen +0.8%; Ex-Autos +0.9%

DJ- The retail sales report for April is expected to show a solid increase on the evidence provided by the auto sales and chain store sales reports.

The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC is for a 0.8% increase in total retail sales in April following a 0.6% increase in March, while excluding autos, economists look for a 0.9% increase following a 0.4% gain in March.

The Commerce Department is due to release the April retail sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Thursday.

"Retail sales rose solidly in April," said Steve Wood, who heads up Insight Economics in Danville, Calif. "However, motor vehicle sales climbed only modestly. Core (non-auto) retail sales spurted, both at general merchandise and apparel stores and at gasoline stations." Wood looks for a 0.6% overall increase with non-auto retail sales up by 0.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:37:04 AM

CNBC Survey: US Jobless Claims Seen Down 7,000 May 6 Week

DJ- Jobless claims are expected to have undergone a moderate decline in the latest week.

The median estimate of 16 economists surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC is for jobless claims to have fallen by 7,000 to 315,000 in the week ended May 6.

The Labor Department is due to release the jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Thursday.

Assuming that the forecast is correct and if there are no revisions, the four-week moving average for jobless claims would edge up to 314,500 from 314,250 in the prior week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:35:31 AM

Brazil Real Hits New 5-year Intraday High

DJ- The Brazilian real hit a new, five-year intraday high Wednesday on continued heavy inflows of dollars from investors and exporters, traders said.

At 1500 GMT, the real stood at BRL2.050 to the dollar, stronger than Tuesday's close of BRL2.060 and the strongest level recorded since March 2001.

Traders said exporters continued to sell dollars into the market fearing even deeper losses to the dollar later in the month.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:32:41 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 389.83 +0.23% ... on March 28, banks finished lower at 372.00.

Those that follow my commentary over the years know that I believe a steepening curve creats margin spread for banks. Keep this in mind when analyzing today's FOMC commentary.

I would argue BULLISH OEX traders want to hear MORE of "steady measured pace".

Fact: Current FF target is 4.75%.

13-week YIELD (IRX.X) 4.737%

5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 4.989%

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:27:09 AM

March 28 Closing Internals found at this Link

5-year finished at 4.773%

30-year finished 4.793%

5 to 30 spread was +0.02 with bond market suggesting pause from Fed.

Today's 11:00 has 5 to 30 spread +0.20 suggesting "steady measured pace."

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:20:22 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:04:06 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 11:01:38 AM

EIA Gross Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, Pct. Utilization Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:51:24 AM

Sell Program Premium ... OEX 602.72

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:50:34 AM

XOM $63.43 -0.29% ...

YM 11,679 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:47:18 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate Inventory Table at this Link

Last Week's Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:42:12 AM

SUN $76.00 -1.54% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:41:36 AM

HOC-QP $2.45 x $2.75

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:40:23 AM

HOC alert .... $78.74 -2.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:39:47 AM

Pct. Utilization rose to 90.23 (slightly more than my forecast) ... May be due to HOC announcement earlier this week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:38:14 AM

Operable Capacity fell by 2,000 barrels per day ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:35:59 AM

And it was NOT focused on the refiners ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:35:29 AM

Little buy program there

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:31:30 AM

HOC session lows ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:31:11 AM

"Big build" in gasoline alert

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:30:44 AM

Pit tempo building .... EIA any second

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:29:19 AM

HOC-QP ... implied volatility currently 32.89

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:26:40 AM

HOC 15-minute interval chart with QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels added at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:22:32 AM

Last week's Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity was 88.78%.

I'm forecasting a 1.22% increase to 90.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:21:14 AM

EIA Inventory Preview Table assuming no net change since last week's report at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:07:04 AM

EIA in 23 minutes

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:06:37 AM

HOC $80.17 after undercut of DAILY S1, but support found at WEEKLY 19.1% marking session low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:05:47 AM

SUN $77.53 after test of DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 10:02:29 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 9:52:43 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2006 9:30:16 AM

Program Trading Levels ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.26 and set for program selling at $+2.88.

Market Monitor Archives