Option Investor
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 5/12/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:28:39 PM

So many things yet to do. I have to get going as I have to drive overnight to attend the funeral of a long time family friend.

I'll update current open market profiles that I've made, pivot matrix levels and other stuff on Sunday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:09:09 PM

Waste Management Sector Bullish % (BPWAST) also reversed lower today to "bear alert" from "bull confirmed."

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:18:01 PM

BPSEMI chart at this Link The way I like to think about the sector bullish % indications is to simply imagine you're charting 100 different stocks in the sector. Then at the end of each day's trading, you separate those 100 charts into two stacks. One stack contains charts that still show a "buy signal" associated with the chart. The other stack contains charts with a "sell signal" on the chart.

Marvell's PnF Chart Link

Remember ... 1-9 is Jan-Sep and A-C is Oct-Dec

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:13:07 PM

Semiconductor Sector Bullish % (BPSEMI) reversed lower to "bull correction" status after today's session.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:44:34 PM

Need to check MRVL and March action. MRVL has earnings next week.

MRVL is a Semiconductor-related stock.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:42:03 PM

February March April Monthly pivot matrix at this Link

I did note today that the SOX.X as a sector showed a sliiiiiight hint of strength relative to its daily Pivot levels and S1

Is the SOX ready for a bounce?

Worth being on the al_ert for.

Great observation Jane.... fantastic. Always giving me something to think about and investigate further.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:33:11 PM

What sector has been noted as a leading sector of weakness?

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:27:38 PM

Oh my ....

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:21:04 PM

Weekly Pivot Matrix WEEK of 03/06-03/10 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:14:26 PM

Shoot ... can't find the March 8 pivot matrix.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:10:57 PM

March 8 was an EIA crude oil, unleaded, distillate inventory day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:06:37 PM

March 8, 2006 closing internals (observing intra-day time lines) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:03:53 PM

Good Gravy! ... reading March 8 MM posts.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:00:55 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 6:46:36 PM

Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks (US) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 6:42:41 PM

US Bank Business Loans Up $6.6 Bln Latest Week

National Jumbo CDs Up $9.7 Bln; Home Equity Down $600 Mln

DJ- Large U.S. banks' commercial and industrial loans rose $6.6 billion to $1.114 trillion in the week ended May 3, the latest week for which data are available, after rising $8.7 billion the previous week, the Federal Reserve said Friday.

Jumbo certificates of deposit at the large banks in the survey rose $9.7 billion to $1.553 trillion in the latest week after rising $9.8 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans fell $600 million to $428.6 billion after falling $1.2 billion the previous week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 5:53:40 PM

YM 5-minute interval bar chart of today's trade Link ... Marked today's trades (short and long). "TRIN 1.16 ... Jumping" at 12:30:49 was trouble for the long.

Making similar notes from my trade blotter from past month (wins and losses). What I'm doing (and perhaps those making some of their own trades) is note your entry, stop and targets and then go back couple of weeks and see how "accurate" entry/stops/targets are.

I'm highly critical of my trading. Today's long was poor entry trade based on current observation of MACD. That said, some stop adjustment from recent blotter review may be correct. When YM hit 11,450 that was it. I had the feeling (based on observation) that the failure to get back above DAILY S1 would see further distribution lower.

When I typed TRIN observation at 12:30:49 that was early al_rt of some formidable selling coming. By the time I was typing "raise bullish stop to ..." the move was then underway.

Slide your cursor along the various pivot levels and note how many points the YM tends to violate before computer takes over.

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 4:21:23 PM

Economic Reports for Monday May 15th

8:30a.m. May NY Fed Manufacturing Index

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 3:55:20 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $73.51 -2.96% ... breaks below WEEKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 3:48:15 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $23.20 -0.08% ...

US Justice Dept Wants To Extend Oversight Of Microsoft

Wants Oversight Of Some Microsoft Practices Til Nov 09

DOJ Cites Lapses Under Microsoft Antitrust Settlement

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 3:40:55 PM

CDC Confirmed Eye Infection Tally Reaches 122 Cases

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 3:23:00 PM

03:06 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 3:10:44 PM

Marvell Tech (MRVL) $55.29 +1.56% Link ... quick decline on volume.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 3:08:58 PM

03:06 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 2:50:31 PM

Travelzoo (TZOO) $35.20 -5.50% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 2:49:41 PM

Expedia (EXPE) $14.70 -25% Link ... Shares sharply lower as Q1 profit falls on higher cost. Online travel company said adjusted profits fell to $57 million, or $0.15 a share, which was below the $0.22 consensus. Revenues rose to $493.9 million from $485 million.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 2:40:04 PM

EUROPEAN STOCKS CLOSE SHARPLY LOWER DJ- European stock markets post their biggest one-day decline in two years over inflation concerns.

Tab Gilles : 5/12/2006 2:19:59 PM

EIA Report Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 2:16:35 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles (updated to current) found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 1:46:30 PM

No surprise there in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 1:46:02 PM

Chirac: UN Iran Measure Doesn't Automatically Entail Force

DJ- French President Jacques Chirac said Friday a proposed U.N. Security Council resolution on the Iranian nuclear program standoff "does not automatically entail" use of force.

"Our objective is to have a resolution that may be obeyed," Chirac told reporters in the margins of an E.U.-Latin America leaders summit. He said France wasn't against a tough resolution, but stressed that it shouldn't lead to the automatic imposition of sanctions or the possible use of military force.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 1:22:18 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 1:16:40 PM

Notable "pop" in the cr00y at 11:30-11:35 interval from 359.59-363.19. That interval also saw a "bad tick" off my chart.

Some chatter that a major hedge fund (short) doing buying of late (squeezed).

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 1:03:38 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:59:20 PM

SOX -2.84% last 20-days.

YM +2.3% last 20-days.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:58:27 PM

SOX 493.77 -0.35% ... still no trade at DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:57:07 PM

YM 11,429 alert

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 12:55:41 PM

DAteline WSJ Thirst for oil around the globe may be showing signs of abating, but energy remains atop the agenda in nearly every corner of the world.

The International Energy Agency, part of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development, took the shears to its forecast for global oil demand in its monthly oil-market report, saying there was evidence that the huge run-up in oil prices recently was finally starting to crimp demand, and that the trend could accelerate in the months ahead. Such a development would surely be a great "see, we told you so" moment for economists who have argued that oil prices will eventually be reined in as consumers and businesses seek out less-expensive energy alternatives. To be sure, the IEA isn't alone in expecting slower demand growth. The Department of Energy, for example, thinks U.S. oil demand will grow just 0.5% this year.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:52:47 PM

RISK to WEEKLY S1 for sure now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:52:25 PM

YM stopped alert 11,550

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:51:13 PM

YM 11,462 ... stop is 11,450, but looking to exit back at entry.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:50:16 PM

UTSI $6.59 -3.37%

HD $40.09 -1.54%

VLO $62.80 -2.86% (MM Profiles is swing trade short now)

MRVL $55.54 +2.07%

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:48:13 PM

North American Palladium (PAL) $10.08 ... should be swing trade 1/2 position stopped alert.

$10.00 strike?

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:44:34 PM

TRIN 1.14 ... DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:44:02 PM

YM 11,463 ... low 11,451

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:41:57 PM

IBM $83.01 ... softened from $83.32.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:41:18 PM

YM ... 11,453... if 11,451 low holds, would have close long on any pop back to entry.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:40:08 PM

TRIN spiked to 1.55, YM low 11,451. I hit the button "early"

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:31:03 PM

YM ... 11,471

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:30:49 PM

TRIN 1.16 ... jumping

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:21:14 PM

IBM $82.28 +0.99% ... DAILY R2 here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:20:29 PM

TRIN 1.01

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:20:21 PM

YM 11,485 ... volume drying up .... need the kick above 11,500, then should get the pop to target.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:15:57 PM

TRIN 5-minute interval chart with QCharts' DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot levels at this Link

YM 11,485 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:11:20 PM

IBM $83.46 ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $81.55, $82.45, Piv= $82.89, $83.79, $84.23.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:09:29 PM

Dow Components at this Link

HD under the $40 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:05:03 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 12:01:59 PM

YM long alert 11,486 here, stop 11,450, target 11,522.

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 12:01:02 PM

Economists believe there is a 14.9% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:59:27 AM

Analog Devices (ADI) $36.14 +4.20% Link ... earnings surprise Forbes.com Link

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 11:58:43 AM

Crude oil forecasts for June are 67.27 and for December 63.66.

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 11:58:21 AM

The montly Economic Forecast has released its ... well forecasts:

Gasoline's impact: Prices at the pump would have to hit $4.30 a gallon to threaten growth.

Crude oil: Forecasts jumped to their highest yet, but still represent a drop from today's level.

Jobs: Payroll gains eased a bit but unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.7%.

The Fed: Economists give Ben Bernanke a B+ so far. They think rates will stay at 5%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:57:22 AM

Advanced Micro (AMD) $31.75 +0.82% Link ... after upgrade at Matrix Research.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:51:31 AM

Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link ... noted current trade within DAILY matrix.

SOX/BIX only equity-based index in matrix NOT to trade DAILY S1 at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:44:10 AM

QQQQ $40.25 -1.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:43:53 AM

Correction ... QQQQ did not trade DAILY S2. Bad tick to $39.96.

Session low so far $40.20

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:40:10 AM

I should say I'm seeing what also looks like pre OP-Ex action

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:39:24 AM

YM 11,475 ... sits on DAILY S1. If short covering in the NASDAQ, be al_rt for bid

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:38:29 AM

QQQQ $40.35 ... DAILY S1 after DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:38:05 AM

TRINQ alert 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:27:45 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:18:27 AM

Valero (VLO) $63.25 -2.16% ... sits on DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:17:31 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $74.35 -1.87% ... slips below MONTHLY 80.9%. Overlapping DAILY S2/WEEKLY S2 at $73.50/$73.58.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:04:19 AM

Added YM just under NYA.X so I/you can keep an eye on YM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 11:02:50 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:48:28 AM

Looking WEEKLY S1

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:48:19 AM

YM weekly 61.8% retracement here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:47:54 AM

YM alert 11,465 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:46:33 AM

YM alert 11,472

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:43:35 AM

Swing trade short full position in Valero Energy (VLO) $63.47 here, stop $66.75, target $56.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:41:57 AM

RUT.X DAILY S2 here ... dropped quickly to WEEKLY S2 750.97 after the open.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:40:30 AM

Treasury's Snow ... High Gas Prices Act Like Tax On Americans

Low Tax Rates Good For Small Business

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:38:21 AM

10:36 Market Watch at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 10:09:08 AM

DAteline WSJ U.S. consumer confidence fell in May for a second straight month as Americans fretted over climbing gasoline prices.

The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 79 this month from the final April reading of 87.4. The gauge of the U.S. consumer psyche has averaged about 89 since Jan. 1, 2005.

The report is the second in as many days to question whether consumers, whose spending rose the most last quarter in five years, can continue to drive the economy. Gas prices are up about a third so far this year, countering the effect of rising wages and a jobless rate that's approaching a five-year low.

"There are a lot of reasons for consumer sentiment to be less and $3 gas is at the top of the list," Roger Kubarych, a senior economic adviser at HVB America Inc. in New York, said before the report.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:08:58 AM

YM 11,504 ... WEEKLY Pivot (11,522) +6 found sellers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:07:10 AM

Could feel the "bid" in YM ahead of that economic report

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:06:02 AM

Sell Program Premium

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 10:00:21 AM

Univ Michigan Mid-May Sent 79.0; April 87.4 - Report

Univ Michigan Mid-May Current Index 96.2; April 109.2

Univ Michigan Mid-May Expectations 68.0; April 73.4

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:59:07 AM

Weakest in my index pivot matrix. Might be some short covering in sector

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:58:09 AM

SOX +0.82% at 499.68

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 9:51:18 AM

VIX is hugging daily high and I see the P/C ratio is as well. This does not bode well for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:50:26 AM

YM short exit alert 11,495

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 9:48:14 AM

The Dollar continues its slide to new yearly lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:48:33 AM

Marvell Tech (MRVL) $55.08 +1.06% ... reverses from session low $52.77

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 9:45:48 AM

Dateline CNN Explosion reported near oil pipeline on outskirts of Lagos, Nigeria, the Nigerian Red Cross tells CNN. There are conflicting reports on casualties.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:39:24 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for Valero Energy (VLO) $63.90 -1.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:27:39 AM

YM short alert 11,516 here, stop 11,546, target 11,465.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:26:38 AM

Dollar Gives Up Post-Data Gains In Choppy Trade Forex Live Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:17:00 AM

US SENATE APPROVES $70B TAX BILL DJ- Senate passes a $70 billion tax bill that will extend rates on capital gains, raise exemptions to the Alternative Minimum Tax and repeal tax breaks for exporters. Bill was approved by the House on Wednesday, and President Bush says he plans to sign it.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:14:40 AM

IEA SEES CLEAR SIGNS OF DEMAND EROSION DJ- International Energy Agency makes sweeping cuts to its forecasts for world oil demand this year, saying there are clear signs that high energy prices are eating into demand and that the trend could well accelerate.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:13:59 AM


DJ - Import prices climb 2.1% last month, above economists' expectations for a 1.2% increase. Excluding 11.5% jump by petroleum, prices are flat from March. Overall import prices increase 5.9% from a year earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 9:13:11 AM


DJ - U.S. trade deficit narrows by 5.6% to $62 billion in March, the smallest gap in seven months, as sales overseas set a record high and imports decline by 0.8% to $176.66 billion. U.S. exports increase by 1.9% to a record $114.66 billion in March. Wall Street predicted a deficit of $67.5 billion.

Jane Fox : 5/12/2006 8:48:15 AM

Dateline WSJ The U.S. trade deficit narrowed during March, shrinking to its smallest gap in seven months as sales overseas set a record high and imports declined.

A separate report showed prices for imported goods surged in April on the back of soaring energy prices, though excluding energy, inflationary pressures emanating from abroad remained well contained.

The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services fell by 5.6% to $62 billion from a revised $65.64 billion in February, the Commerce Department said Friday. February's shortfall was previously estimated at $65.74 billion.

The March shortfall in trade was smaller than Wall Street predicted. A Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC survey of 23 economists had forecast a deficit of $67.50 billion. The $62.00 billion gap was the smallest since $58.46 billion in August 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:46:20 AM

Canada March Trade Surpluss $C5.14B

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:34:12 AM

Forecast was deficit of $67.0B

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:30:57 AM

March Trade Deficit $62.0B

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:29:47 AM

YM Pivot Levels found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2006 8:19:41 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+5.28 and set for program selling at $+2.98.

Market Monitor Archives